Astrological Accuracy
Cora Smallwood & Valarie Coles
Abstract
This study was designed to examine astrological accuracy and the Barnum effect
(the tendency to accept a description of oneself even when it is so vague as to
apply to anyone). Participants (N=19) were randomly assigned to either an
accurate (came from the correct zodiac sign) horoscope and traits or a false
(researchers made it up from parts of random horoscopes) horoscope and traits.
Participants completed a 2-part, 15 question questionnaire about horoscope use
and they judged the accuracy of the horoscope and traits they received. People
who believed in astrology were more likely to believe their horoscope was
accurate. People who received an accurate horoscope judged it to be slightly but
not significantly more accurate than participants who received a false horoscope.
Future researchers could try to find out if giving the horoscope for the next day
affects how participants act throughout the day by having them take a follow up
questionnaire.
Astrological Accuracy
Astrology, a form of pseudoscience, is defined as the study of the movements
and relative positions of celestial bodies interpreted as having an influence on
human affairs and the natural world. According to Merriam-Webster Dictionary a
horoscope is advice and future predictions based on the date of a person's birth
and the positions of the stars and planets. According to Newport & Strausberg
(2001), a Gallup poll, more than 25% of the public believes in astrology, while
52% stated their disbelief in the topic. When asked about the scientific credibility
of astrology, only 9% of all adults in 2001 reported that it is Very scientific
versus the 56% of people who reported Not at all scientific (National Science
Foundation SRS, 2001).
The idea of astrology and horoscopes have become a huge part of many cultures
worldwide and seems to influence actions, thoughts, and beliefs of millions of
people. Why do people believe in horoscopes? According to various studies,
someone who identifies themselves with astrology is more likely to accept a
horoscope as accurate than nonbelievers. As stated in Glick, Gottesman, and
Jolton (1989), overall, believers were more likely than skeptics to accept
descriptions as accurate. Another fact from Glick, Gottesman, and Jolton (1989)
stated that people given socially favorable horoscopes or descriptions, regardless
of belief, will judge them to be more accurate. Even those who do not believe in
astrology are more likely to change in light of a favorable description. Astrological
traits that aligned more with socially accepted ideas were accepted much more
than traits viewed in a negative light: ...one determinant of acceptance of
astrology is the favorableness, or social desirability, of the particular character
analysis it offer (Hamilton, 2001). ...Skeptics who received favorable
horoscopes became significantly more positive in their opinions toward
astrology (Glick, Gottesman, & Jolton, 1989). The findings of both Glick,
Gottesman, and Jolton, and Hamilton both found that the desirability of the
horoscope is one factor leading to acceptance. Some research has shown that if a
persons cultural background supports astrological affiliation, then they would be
more likely to believe a false list of traits (Rogers & Soule, 2009). In multiple
countries around the world, China especially, astrology is a big part of the
culture, although slightly different than the astrology typically seen in the US.
Since it appears that the results in these studies have similar outcomes, the
purpose of this study will be to see if our results are parallel with them.
Hanover College
Our hypotheses are: Those who believe in astrology will rate the horoscopes as
more accurate; People presented with their correct horoscope will view it as no
more accurate than people presented with an incorrect horoscope.
In order to test our hypothesis, the participants were randomly assigned to
either the correct or incorrect horoscope group and given a horoscope and list of
traits. The participants read both the traits and the horoscope, then they filled
out the questionnaire, which asked about the accuracy of the information given
to them. The participants, generally, took about ten minutes to complete the
questionnaire. Before leaving, the participants were given a written debriefing,
thanked for their participation, and were dismissed.
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Method
Participants
In this experiment, we had a total of 19 participants. We gathered our
participants from introductory psychology courses as well as personal
acquaintances of us, the researchers. The distribution of demographics of this
study was 89% female, 11% male; 65% Caucasian, 25% African-American, and
10% Other. The age range was 18 to 23, the median age was 20.5, and the
average age for this group was 20.5. We collected a convenience sample: sent
out an email to personal acquaintances with an invitation to participate as well
as a bulk email to other students and a sheet with the link that students can take
with them.
Materials
To conduct our experiment, we used a questionnaire. The questionnaire used is
produced of questions we made up ourselves. The questionnaire is designed to
measure the knowledge the participants have on their astrological sign and the
traits associated to the sign. The questionnaire consists of 15 questions. The
questions were of 2 sets: measuring belief in astrology generally and measuring
accuracy of this particular horoscope and trait list. Some questions were: I feel
like astrology applies to me, I feel like the personality traits are accurate and I
feel like the horoscope is accurate. The participants read the traits and the
horoscope and then were given a questionnaire about how accurate they felt the
information was. Sample horoscope: When opportunity knocks on your door,
you don't always have to open it. Be careful not to become a person who always
says 'yes' because you think being busy is always a good way to be. It's time to
get a lot more particular about what you get involved with Sample list of traits:
Intelligent, Innovative, Honest, Spontaneous, Inquisitive.
Procedure
Participants were told that the study was designed to see whether or not people
believed the traits associated with their zodiac sign and whether or not they also
believed the horoscope associated with their zodiac sign. The interested
participants went to the link provided and were assigned randomly to either the
correct or incorrect group after pressing continue. Upon entering the site, they
read and agreed to the informed consent form. After a short demographics
section, each participant was asked a few questions about how they felt about
astrology. They were then asked what their zodiac sign was and given a
horoscope and list of traits. The participants completed the questionnaire. The
participants generally took about 10 minutes or less to complete the
questionnaire. After submitting the questionnaire, the participants were thanked
for their participation and given a debriefing form.
Results
We predicted that whether or not a person believed in astrology, they would still agree with the
horoscope and personality traits associated with their zodiac sign. Belief in astrology and Judgment of
accuracy of horoscope and traits were scored together with the number of items being 7 and the
Cronbachs Alpha being 0.78. The correlation between belief in astrology and the judgment of accuracy
of horoscopes and traits is positively correlated with more acceptance of a particular horoscope. The
correlation is r(19)=0.431, p-value is 0.033. The correlation for true horoscope is r(11)=0.576, p-value is
.032. The correlation for false horoscope is r(8)=0.314, p-value is .224. We ran an independent samples
t-test comparing the false horoscope to the true horoscope using accuracy of horoscope as the
dependent variable. The results are t(17) = -.610, p-value is 0.550; this was a 2-tailed test. This tests the
Barnum effect: do people tend to think that any horoscope is accurate, perhaps in part because it is so
vague?
Chinese astrology, which is typically deemed as original, would have more weight. Finally,
a study to see if one would project a future horoscope on the following day. This would be
was supported because people who received correct horoscopes did not rate them as
Figure 1. Shows the means of the accuracy of the true and false horoscopes
significantly more accurate than people who received inaccurate horoscopes. Like Glick,
Gottesman, and Jolton (1989) and Hamilton (2001), we found that the more that people
accurate.
Figure 2. Shows the correlation of the belief of astrology versus the belief of horoscope
r(19)=0.431, p-value is 0.033
Discussion
This study was designed to examine astrological accuracy and the Barnum effect (the
tendency to accept a description of oneself even when it is so vague as to apply to
anyone). The Barnum effect was supported because people who received correct
horoscopes did not rate them as significantly more accurate than people who received
inaccurate horoscopes. Like Glick, Gottesman, and Jolton (1989) and Hamilton (2001), we
found that the more that people believed in astrology generally, the more they believed
that a particular horoscope was accurate.
Some limitations are present in our research. We sent our link to close friends,
classmates and people we know. This sparked a major concern of having a small sample
that was unrepresentative of the population. It was a majority female sample. The only
(little to none) male representation in our sample was not enough to be able to conclude
that men believed in astrology as much as women do. We had mainly sophomores and
juniors take the questionnaires but they were mostly our friends or people we knew so
that could not represent the sophomore and junior population as a whole. Another
limitation could be how we made our inaccurate horoscopes. The inaccurate horoscopes
were composed of two different horoscopes that were found online. This could have posed
a problem because horoscope-savvy readers may have considered them artificial in some
way. That may be the reason why people found them slightly less accurate.
If the study was to be redone, it couldve included more of a lab study involving
confederates to test if peer pressure plays a significant role in belief. People generally
believe in horoscopes because they want to have a sense of knowing what's going to
happen in the future now, a sense of being able to have a predictable life, also being able
to have something to believe in that lets them know that tomorrow is promised. This was
one of our original ideas that wasnt able to be taken into account in such a short study.
Taking a closer look into the importance of culture in belief, a bigger focus on the accuracy
of Chinese astrology versus American astrology would have been able to figure out which
one people would be more inclined to believe. That wouldve been a great way to see if
a great idea to see whether or not reading a horoscope projected for the next day will
cause the person to act upon what that horoscope says.
In conclusion, our study found that people given socially favorable horoscopes or
descriptions, regardless of belief, will judge them to be more accurate. The Barnum effect
believed in astrology generally, the more they believed that a particular horoscope was
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