Novel Framework For Predicting Fault Tolerance Using Stochastic Modelling On Distributed Power Line Transmission

IPASJ International Journal of Electrical Engineering (IIJEE)
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Volume 5, Issue 7, July 2017 ISSN 2321-600X
Novel Framework for Predicting Fault

Tolerance using Stochastic Modelling on
Distributed Power Line Transmission
G. Raghavendra1, Dr. Manjunath Ramachandra 2
1
Research Scholar, Jain University, Bengaluru, India Assistant Professor, School of EEE, Reva University, Bengaluru, India
2
Jain University, Bengaluru, India
Abstract
The usage of renewable power sources are the best alternatives to solve the problems of constantly saturated conventional
energy sources in very near future. However, owing to the time-variant properties of renewable resources, it is very challenging
task to ensure its resiliency towards utility failures unlike in existing distributed generation system does today. We reviewed the
existing system to find that studies towards forecasting of failures are still open-end problems. Therefore, this paper presents a
novel framework those targets to incorporate a predictive modelling scheme efficient enough to withstand dynamic interruption
by consistently supplying local load. A stochastic modelling is carried out for computing capacity, demands, as well as outage
using analytical research methodology. The study outcome was compared with most frequently practiced forecasting technique
to find that proposed system offers better power capacity with very less errors for larger customer base.
Keywords: Power Transmission, Prediction, Outage, Stochastic Approach, Fault Tolerance
1. INTRODUCTION
The existing forms of the power transmission network targets mainly to leverage the higher degree of fault tolerant
performance [1]. Such incorporation of fault tolerance is obtained by integrating additional hardware-based resource
that has the capability to perform better reconfiguration of the network in to more efficient manner. However, such
operation includes more cost of new components and doesnt offer reliability at same time [2]. With the increasing
demands of the users, the future demands of the power distribution changes are in constant pace of upgradation [3].
Incorporation of such features calls for proper assessment of resiliency towards potential failures along with
minimization of outage. The area of distributive generation essentially uses both conventional as well as renewable
source of energy [4][5], where still majority of the developing country still uses conventional sources of energy which is
saturating very fast. This leads to emphasize on the future usage of renewable energy whose adoption in power
generation is increasing in a faster pace [6]. Although, usage of renewable energy sources are the only best alternative
at present as well as in future for applying it in the process of distributive generation system, but it is shrouded with
some potential problems. The first problem associated with the usage of renewable sources is its increased dependencies
on various input which often changes in different circumstances of usage. The energy that is produced from such form
of energy sources also includes higher fluctuation that makes it very much challenging for its behavior to be detected in
future [7]. There are certain applications in power transmission system (e.g. industrial, emergency, healthcare, etc),
which demands highest level of resiliency towards any form of faults. On the other hand, the biggest problem in using
renewable source of energy is that it is very difficult to extract a particular trend in its behavior where prediction can be
made accurately. In such situation, there is all the possibilities of non-matching of supply factor and actual demands
owing to various forms of possible interruption that will be surfaced by using renewable resources in distributive
generation. Therefore, in presence of any form of interruption, the source of distributive generation is often subjected to
disconnection. The extent of distributed generation towards trustworthiness resides in the side of user and never for any
component of utility causing the system to be pretty expensive at present. However, it should be noted that a better form
of fault tolerance can only be offered if involved components as well as utilities in distributive generation is protected
well. One way to do so is to perform proper identification of failure type and another way is to ensure seamless
transmission of load when the system encounters a condition of power interruption. However, at present, both the
solutions are hard to be retained at same time. For better solution, it is anticipated that occurrences of failures should be
as low as possible along with a hope of enhancing the system tolerance level by supplying load during the mode of
islanding process. At present, there are availability of various forms of prediction-based algorithms [8][9][10] trying to
solve complex forecasting problems, however, they cannot be directly applied on such distributed generation system
Volume 5, Issue 7, July 2017 Page 1

owing to various forms on incompatibilities in their implementations. There is an emergent need to redefine the process
of forecasting the fault occurrences for using renewable sources in distributive generation system in order to improve
better resiliency towards different forms of failures.
Therefore, the proposed system offers a simple and cost effective modeling of fault tolerance using stochastic approach
with a target to incorporate an efficient and reliable predictive scheme of fault tolerance in power transmission network.
Section 1.1 discusses about the existing literatures where different techniques are discussed for fault tolerance in power
transmission lines followed by discussion of research problems in Section 1.2 and proposed solution in 1.3. Section 2
discusses about algorithm implementation followed by discussion of result analysis in Section 3. Finally, the conclusive
remarks are provided in Section 4.
1.1 Background
There are various schemes presented by different researchers pertaining to issues of fault tolerance in power
transmission lines. Wang et al. [11] have presented a simulation model for computing the failures that change with
time for assessing risk considering power grid systems. Ali et al. [12] have presented a filter design to mitigate the
faults existing in power transmission networks using empirical based approaches. Awadallah et al. [13] have used
evidence theory as well as epistemic uncertainty policy for modeling the power transmission system to investigate
failures. Investigation of the faults appearing on wind power system was explored by Boemer et al. [14]. Deng et al.
[15] have introduced a study to locate the position of failures in power lines using newton iteration methods. Kojima et
al. [16] have presented a numerical modeling approach for investigating the failures in power transmission cables.
Florez et al. [17] have presented a model that locates the source of shunt faults in presence of uncertainty in the
transmission network. Study towards optimization of transient stability has been carried out by Shukla et al. [18]
towards resisting cascading faults in transmission grids. Tripathy et al. [19] have applied transform-based solution for
localizing the source of failures by enhancing the operation of S-transformation scheme. Bolandi et al. [20] have
presented a discussion of the solution that is claimed to resists failures in integrated power transmission system by
enabling a precise fault classification system. Moon et al. [21] have presented a discussion of limiters that are being
practiced for controlling fault levels in current using co optimization-based approach. Seyedtabaii [22] have used
neural network for performing classification of the fault existing in power transmission line. Usage of evidence-based
approach was also seen in the work of Guo et al. [23] that contributes to the analysis of various component-based risks.
Chabanloo et al. [24] have also used current limiter as a mechanism to resist faults that goes in line with overcurrent
relays with a special emphasis on transient pattern of the transmission network. Wang et al. [24] have presented a
simple mechanism towards optimizing strategies for controlling power applicable on various power grid systems. The
literature has also witnessed usage of fuzzy logic for performing optimization of the fault tolerance issues. The work
carried out by Dran and Varthini [26] have used fuzzy logic for identifying failures. Similar usage of fuzzy logic has
been seen in the work carried out by Holbert and Lin [27] associated with nuclear power plants. Discussion of utilizing
of fuzzy logic toward failure identification is also emphasized in the review work of Luo et al. [28]. Xiong et al. [29]
have presented a design of tool using fuzzy logic for diagnosing the degree of fault in existing power transmission
networks. Simsir et al. [30] have used feedforward neural network for performing diagnosis of faults presents in power
hub motors. Therefore, there are various research contribution emphasizing towards fault tolerance with more
frequencies of using fuzzy logic for better identification of faults in power system. Although, these work have notable
benefits that have certain level of pitfalls also that is elaborated in next section in the form of research problem.
1.2 Research Problem

The significant research problems are as follows:
There are less formulation of the study where predictive-based approach has been emphasized in existing system in
distributed generation.
The existing techniques doesnt actually emphasize on the effect on faults on capacity as well as it also doesnt
signifies if it really meet the customer demands of load.
Studies with respect to practical form of power usage in multiple sectors have not been carried out till date that
offers less practical solution.
Majority of the existing techniques on fault tolerance looks for identification of faults that are well defined apriority
that doesnt work out for dynamic forms of faults in practical life.
There are less studies that has been witness to offer benchmarked outcome using a standard test-bed for ensuring
higher degree of fault tolerance.

1.3 Proposed Solution
The current work is an extension to work prior work [AR][AR] where the proposed system adopts analytical research
methodology for designing a predictive framework for computing degree of fault tolerance in power transmission line.
The potential of stochastic modeling is harnessed for developing the framework in presence of both system failure and
restoration stage. Fig.1 highlights the capability of the system to construct a capacity and demand matrix for multiple
forms of sources of power generation (conventional, solar, wind) which is followed by computation of power
availability. Probability is applied in the modeling for computing both capacity and outage. As majority of the
upcoming application uses renewable sources of energy, it is highly challenging to ensure fault tolerant against any
form of failures as they offers output that are time varying depending on the availability of sources. Therefore,
stochastic mechanism assists in better predictive capability by considering the usage of higher number of customers for
a novel load modeling strategies. The prime contribution of the framework is to study the load demands depending on
the different types of power sources.
Figure 1 Adopted Scheme of Methodology in Proposed System
Identification of inadequate load estimate is carried out in order to find the better identification of islanding system.
The input to the model is mainly rate of failure and restoration, which further performs predictive modeling by using
segments for analysis of data distribution. The proposed system also presents an algorithm that is capable of predicting
fault occurrences along with duration in much efficient manner. The primary application of this stochastic modeling is
that it let the user perform a predictive profiling of the success rate and failure rate for their availed power lines
transmission system subjected to variable form of dynamic loads as well as in presence of dynamic demands of the
users. The algorithm doesnt require any form of thresholding to offer trustworthy outcome and the modeling of the
fault tolerance is carried out considering mainly time-variant data obtained from the usage statistics records. The
outcome of the proposed system is also evaluated with respect to occurrences of errors for multiple iterations as well as
probability of capacity. The next section illustrates about algorithm implementation.
2. ALGORITHM IMPLEMENTATION
This section essentially discusses about the algorithms being implemented towards stochastic modeling of the proposed
system. The complete operation of the algorithm is basically divided into two parts where the first part deals with
development of Stochastic Capacity Matrix (SCM) and second part deals with constructing Stochastic Demand Matrix
(SDM).
2.1 Modelling Stochastic Capacity-Demand Matrix (SCM-SDM)
This is the first stage of algorithm implementation which is essentially meant for computing the cumulative amount of
capacity of power required to cater up the distribution demands. The modeling starts by computing the power
availability considering rate of system failure and rate of system restore. The first algorithm takes the input as rate for
both system failures and restoration (Line-1) in order to compute both availability and unavailability of the power

supply. The advantage of this algorithm is that it potentially assists in computation of power supply availability that
will assist further in modeling the fault tolerance level for a given distributive generation system.
i) Algorithm for Computing Power Availability
Input: 1 = (rate of system failure), 2 (rate of system restore)
Output: + / -(Availability and Unavailability of Power Supply)
Start
1. init 1, 2
2. + 2/( 1+ 2)
3. - 1/( 1+ 2)
End
For simplistic algorithmic implementation, we apply probability theory where it is assumed that there are less
occurrence of system failures while the rate of system restoration is quite moderate of its kind. Hence, we initialize 1
with lower probability value i.e. 0.2-0.3 while we initialize 2 with moderate (or ideal) probability value i.e. 0.5. The
next phase of the algorithm implementation will focus on performing computation on the basis of multiple forms of
distributive generation types. At present, the study consider three different forms of distributive generation type e.g.
conventional, wind, and solar. The next step is to perform computation of the probability for both capacity and outage
during the process of power supply. The steps involved in second algorithm are as follows;
ii) Algorithm for Computing Capacity-Outage Probability

Input: s (number of segments), d (number of days of utilization), h (number of hours of utilization)
Output: cprob (capacity probability), cout (capacity outage)
Start
1. init s, d, h
2. SMrand(d, h) //SM is Stochastic matrix
3. SMasort(SM) //SMa is Sorting into descending order
4. def plevel(s) //plevel is power output level
5. For i=1:s
6. For j=1:size(SMa)
7. If SMa(j)<plevel(i) && SMa(j)>plevel(i+1)
8. count=count+1
9. End
10. End
11. Ttimecount
12. probTtime/length(SMa)
13. cout100*(1-1/i)
14. If i=s
15. Cprob(i) +.count / (dh+ -)
16. Else
17. Cprob(i) +.count / (dh+ -)
18. End
End
Depending upon the level of selection of the type of the distributive generation, the first step of the second algorithm
will be responsible for obtaining stochastic matrix SM by randomizing the data associated with days of utilization d and
hours of utilization h (Line-2). For computation of annual usage, the study considers d=365 days and h=24 hours. As
there are multiple possible values for stochastic matrix SM, so it is necessary to sort it in descending order, which will
give the arranged data for one year (Line-3). The variable SMa represents a matrix consisting of randomized
information of days and hours arranged in decreasing order. As the proposed study is more into exploratory process of
analytical modeling therefore, the study emphasize data distribution process that it does by involving multiple number
of segments s. Dividing the data into such segments will make the analysis easier to be investigated. Basically, these
segments are used for defining a range of power levels plevel =(Line-4). The next step of the algorithm considers all the
levels of power and checks if there is presence of any cumulative duration to be residing within the range of total
number of segments. A condition for stochastic modeling is formed by checking of the value of sorted stochastic matrix
SMa is found within the range of first to last power level i.e. plevel(i) and plevel(i+1)(Line-7). Only under this condition,

the algorithm permits to increase its count for all the value of sorted stochastic matrix SMa (Line-8). This counts are
only typical representation of the elapsed time of operation i.e. Ttime (Line-11). The outcome of this step of the
algorithm offers exploring the performance of time duration spent on per hours on each segments. The probability can
be calculated by dividing obtained elapsed time of operation i.e. Ttime with product of days d and hours h (Line-12). The
next step of the algorithm is to perform computation for probability of capacity and outage. The outage probability is
quite easier to find in the form of (1-1/number of segments) as shown in Line-13. However, for computing probability
of capacity, we require to present some more condition associated with over and under capacity. Therefore, a condition
is framed that if number of segments are found same in each rounds than probability of capacity can be computed using
the equation shown in Line-15 and Line-17. Hence, a final outcome of capacity as outage is explored using this
algorithm. By this, the operation of the algorithm for Stochastic Capacity Matrix formulation is over, which is followed
by exactly similar steps to construct Stochastic Demand Matrix. The algorithm design of the SDM follows the similar
flow i.e. upon selection of one type of demand (based on available 3 forms of distributive generation type), the system
loads demand matrix followed by sorting the power demands in descending order. It then divides the data into
segments followed by computation of cumulative probability as well as probability for both demands and outage in
demands. The next part of the algorithm is continue for final stochastic modeling.
2.2 Modelling Stochastic Fault Tolerant Evaluation System

This part of the study is involved in computation of fault factor to explore its level of tolerance. The better way to do so
is to find the amount of the load that is always found less that what is really required in practical environment. It will
be easier to explore such inadequate load for mitigating it to the best level. This operation is carried out by our third
algorithm, whose steps are as shown below:
iii) Algorithm for Computing Inadequate Load Estimatation

Input: s1, s2, Cprob, Dprob
Output: ILE
Start
1. Init s1, s2
2. For i=1:s1
3. For j=1:s2
4. If Cprob(j)<Dprob(i)
5. Sum=sum+1
6. End
7. End
8. prob=sum/s1
9. ILEDprob(i).prob
10. End
End
The algorithm takes the input of number of segment in SCM, number of segment in SDM, capacity probability, and
Demand Probability that after processing leads to computation of Inadequate Load Estimation. The algorithm mainly
performing the analysis of the event when there is a possibility of failures owing to less load availability. The first step
of the algorithm is to initialize number of segment in SCM and SDM (Line-1) followed by internal loops of it (Line-2
& Line-3) to finally arrive at a condition that states if the probability of capacity associated with demand matrix is
found less than actual probability of demand for precise stochastic capacity (Line-4). This evaluation leads to
computation of probability (Line-8) that finally leads to empirically compute Inadequate Load Estimate (Line-9). By,
this the probabilistic modeling, the algorithm significantly assists in giving a true picture of fault tolerance using
predictive schema. The system than performs assessment of system of assessing fault tolerance where multiple load
points are identified. Depending on the selection of the load points, the system performs computation of load points
depending on the form of the distributive generation type. The next part of the algorithm is used for computing fault
tolerance using Event of Fault Occurrence (EFO) and Duration of Fault Occurrence (DFO). The significant steps
involved are as following:

iv) Algorithm for Computing Fault Tolerance

Input: (Rate of Yearly Occurrence of Faults), d (number of days of utilization), h (number of hours of utilization),
(Rate of Yearly System Restoration), tot (total restoration duration), ss(probability to initialize and acquire DG),
Output: EFO (Event of Fault Occurrences), DFO (Duration of Fault Occurrences)
Start
This algorithm takes the input of Rate of Yearly Occurrence of Faults, number of days of utilization, number of hours
of utilization, Rate of Yearly System Restoration, total restoration duration, probability to initialize and acquire
distributive generation (Line-1), which after processing leads to computation of EFO and DFO. Depending on the type
of selected mode of distributive generation, the fourth algorithm initializes different empirical values of failures
considering an early basis (Line-2 to Line-7). Apart from this, the algorithm also initializes the rate of failure computed
annually, cumulative time of restoration, probability of initiating and obtaining distributive generation, and restoration
time. This analysis is then followed by computing a state-based matrix considering all the above information (Line-8).
Finally, numbers of faults incurred in state matrix as well as number of days involved are computed (Line-9), which
finally assists in computation of EFO and DFO. Therefore, EFO and DFO are the prime performance parameters
computed for a given number of base end users. Therefore, the algorithm is capable of performing a predictive analysis
of the fault tolerance of the distributive generation for a given one year of usage heuristics. Hence, the proposed
algorithm can be considered as cost effective as well as robust in its operation using stochastic modeling approach.
Table 1 List of Notation

3. RESULT ANALYSIS
This section discusses about the results obtained after implementing the algorithms discussed in prior section. The
proposed system considers a 4-bus design in a standard test system is used for assessing the level of fault tolerance
accomplished from the proposed study. In order to obtain the result, the proposed system considers 1000 end users that
are supposed to be served with power supply without failure. The numerical evaluation was done by considering failure
rate for conventional energy as 4 and that of solar energy as 2. The study also considers 48 hours of cumulative
restoration time with highest probability of 0.95 for initiating and acquiring the distributive generation system. The
time for repairing switching system is considered to be 12 hours.
Figure 2 Analysis of Load Demands from various sources
The first essential outcome of the proposed study is the load profile of one day as shown in Fig.2, which shows that load
demands are always higher for industrial users followed by commercial users and residential users. These graphical
patterns are also in agreement of the practical environment of power usage showing that proposed modeling is framed
up correctly. For studying the failures in the load distribution, the proposed study considers conditions of failures as i)
in the event of distributive generation doesnt initiate along with intermittent breakage of connection, ii) failures of
switches for isolating the distributive generation along with the load, iii) internal circuitry problems, and iv) less
sufficient output power. The proposed study uses stochastic-based approach for computing both capacity as well as
outage probability with respect to different attributes of faults as shown in Table 2.
Table 2 Numerical outcome on 4 bus system

Industrial Residential Commercial
Distributive EFO DFO EFO DFO EFO DFO
Generation
No Distributive 0.1727 4.3372 0.1731 4.3372 0.1727 4.3372
Generation
Wind 0.1747 4.3344 0.1764 4.2958 0.1783 4.3100
Solar 0.1752 4.3339 0.1778 4.2989 0.1781 4.3198
Traditional 0.1781 4.2013 0.1781 4.2697 0.1777 4.2772
Table 2 highlights that numerical outcomes obtained from 4 bus system with testifying approximately 30 load points for
assessing the value of EFO and DFO respectively considering three different practical environment of power usage i.e.
industrial, residential, and commercial. The parameter EFO is used for assessing the influence of setting up multiple
units of distributive generation at individual points of the load. Similarly, extraction of the numerical value of DFO
gives the condition of criticality of the failures with respect to duration. Therefore, a simplistic and cost effective
probabilistic technique is deployed to find out the pattern of both EFO and DFO with increasing number of load points.

Fig.3 highlights that frequencies of event of failures are found more for solar sources followed by wind sources of
energy as compared to conventional distributed generation system. Similarly, on the other hand, Fig.4 shows that
duration of failures are found more forwind sources of wind energy and solar energy in contrast to conventional source
of distributive generation.
Figure 3 Analysis of EFO values on different load points
Figure 4 Analysis of DFO values on different load points
Apart from the evaluation of the patterns of the failures, the proposed system also analyzes the performance of two
more probability factor i.e. capacity outage (Fig.5) and demand outage (Fig.6). A closer look into the trends of capacity
outage and demand outage is found nearly similar pattern, where it is seen that both the form of outage are minimizing
with increasing number of load points. Such forms of outcome will considerably assist in constructing decision for
predicting the points of fault tolerance with better possibility of adoption of solutions towards offering better robustness
on stochastic modeling. An interesting finding of the proposed outcome shows that proposed system is able to find the
exact position of the outage as evident from the segment numbers. Although, the curve descends but it does that at a
slow pace, which means that proposed system not only explores the level of fault tolerance but its modeling aspect
doesnt incorporate any overheads in the system to further increase failures. Hence, fault occurrences can be precisely
predicted.

Figure 5 Analysis of Capacity Outage
Figure 6 Analysis of Demand Outage
For the purpose of an effective analysis, the outcome of the proposed system is compared with that of most frequently
adopted techniques. We find that usage of fuzzy logic is more frequent in solving existing prediction-based challenges.
Therefore, a separate function has been created for this purpose to explore the effect of both proposed and existing
fuzzy logic towards the system performance with respect to computation of probability of capacity and error per epoch.
Fig.7 shows that probability of capacity of proposed system is considerably higher in comparison to existing system of
fuzzy based approach. Similarly, Fig.8 also shows that proposed system offers significantly lower occurrences of error
with increasing challenges of load demands. The prime reason behind this is fuzzy logic make use of the membership
function whose conditions are controlled by a set of static rule sets. Hence, the system fails to take a decision to
compute load in the random environment of load distribution in fuzzy when it differs from rule set. On the other hand,
our approach is quite capable for performing prediction of fault tolerance with better accuracy even if the load changes
dynamically.

Figure 7 Analysis of Probability of Capacity
Figure 8 Analysis of Error per Epoch
The adoption of probability theory further makes the evaluation faster in terms of computational time. The proposed
system takes approximately 2.7622 seconds to processing the complete algorithm, where existing system takes
approximately 5.6113 seconds in core-i5 machine. Therefore, the proposed system can be said to offer a cost effective,
computationally efficient, and highly trustworthy fault tolerant system for ensuring different forms of power
transmission process in both present and future applications.
4. CONCLUSION
This manuscript has presented a very well defined stochastic modeling that is mainly implemented to increase the
robustness of predictability feature of using renewable resources in upcoming power transmission lines in distributed
generation system. The proposed strategy is proven to be capable enough for assessing the distribution system of any
type (residential, commercial, and industrial). The yearly power that has appeared in output was used in computing the
rate of sufficiency of power supply using curve of load distribution with an aid of stochastic modeling. The proposed
mechanism considers multiple realistic attributes to ensure correctness of fault tolerant estimates. The study outcome
was also found to have fewer algorithms processing time along with less occurrences of error in outcome and more

power capacity. Our future work will be in the direction of further optimizing the outcomes using combinatorial
approaches.
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AUTHOR
G. Raghavendra, received his B.E. degree from Dr.T.Thimmaiah Institute of Technology and MTech from
Siddhartha Institute of Technology. He has around 14 years of teaching experience. Currently working as assistant
professor and UG coordinator in Reva University, Bangalore.
Dr.Manjunath Ramachandra, Served as the visiting faculty, UVCE, Bangalore (2000), visiting
professor B.M.S.College of Engineering (2002-2004), visiting professor & Advisor, syllabus search
committee- M.S.R School of Advanced studies (Affiliated to Coventry University, UK) (2001-2004),
Advisor for PhD program, Jain University (2010 till date), I have Around 17 years of work experience
in the overlapping verticals of Signal processing including healthcare & lifestyle applications

Novel Framework For Predicting Fault Tolerance Using Stochastic Modelling On Distributed Power Line Transmission

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IPASJ International Journal of Electrical Engineering (IIJEE)

Web Site: http://www.ipasj.org/IIJEE/IIJEE.htm

Novel Framework for Predicting Fault

Keywords: Power Transmission, Prediction, Outage, Stochastic Approach, Fault Tolerance

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1.2 Research Problem

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Figure 1 Adopted Scheme of Methodology in Proposed System

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ii) Algorithm for Computing Capacity-Outage Probability

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2.2 Modelling Stochastic Fault Tolerant Evaluation System

iii) Algorithm for Computing Inadequate Load Estimatation

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iv) Algorithm for Computing Fault Tolerance

Table 1 List of Notation

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Figure 2 Analysis of Load Demands from various sources

Table 2 Numerical outcome on 4 bus system

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Figure 3 Analysis of EFO values on different load points

Figure 4 Analysis of DFO values on different load points

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Figure 5 Analysis of Capacity Outage

Figure 6 Analysis of Demand Outage

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Figure 7 Analysis of Probability of Capacity

Figure 8 Analysis of Error per Epoch

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