Larry Weinstein, Column Editor
Fermi Questions
Solutions for Fermi Questions, September 2016
w Question 1: Fermi in the woods
How many trees are there in the world and what is the
tree-to-people ratio?
by A. Mller and C. Loretan, University of Geneva
Answer: Recently, Nature published an article about
the global extent of forest trees,1 which is a crucial factor
for the terrestrial biosphere. We cite from the United
Nations Environment Programme (UNEP,2): Forests are
not only important for the 1.6 billion people who depend on
them for their livelihoods, but for the worlds population at
large. Forests play a critical role in the Earths life support
system, including global carbon and hydrological cycles.
According to Ref. 1, the total number of trees on Earth is
NT = 3.04 0.09631012 (1)
(error is 95% confidence interval), i.e. a trees-to-people
ratio of approximately 400:1. Here, only trees above a
minimum diameter of 10 cm at breast height (DBH) were
counted (the DBH is a standard measure among foresters,
with breast height set at 1.3 m).1
How can you estimate these numbers from
simple assumptions and easily available data?
Answer: The number in question is given by
NT = sT . fF . AL, (2)
where AL is the land surface on Earth, fF the fraction of
AL covered by forests, and sT the average areal density of
trees.
The terrestrial land surface is
AL < 150 million km2 = 1.531014 m2 (3)
from easily available sources.
Looking on a map at large countries or regions, such as
Brazil, Russia, or North America, the fraction of the land
surface covered by forests is several 10 percent, often
above 50%, but there are also large areas, such as the
Sahara, Arctic, and Antarctic, where this fraction is zero.
We work with 20% as a rough estimate,
fF ~ 0.2. (4)
An excellent online source for this and other environ-
mental data is provided by the United Nations Environ-
ment Programme.2
Finally, the tree density can be estimated from the next
neighbour distance of trees (dNN), via the general relation
THE PHYSICS TEACHER Vol. 54, September 2016
Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA 23529
weinstein@odu.edu
sT = dNN-2. (5)
To estimate dNN, we proceed as follows. For a dense for-
est (rather young trees), a lower limit is of the order of
meters. For a sparse forest, the value is of the order of
10 meters. In the case of a lower and upper limit given by
orders-of-magnitude, a reasonable estimate is often given
by their geometric mean.3 One thus obtains
dNN ~ (1m310 m)1/2 < 3 m. (6)
Inserting Eq. (5) in Eq. (2) and then substituting in num-
bers, one obtains
(7)
which has not only the right order of magnitude, but also
the leading decimal of the published value.1 The trees-to-
people ratio is then (using the easily available human
population on Earth) (331012): (73109) < 400:1.
Comments, Conclusion
Actually, fF is well-known and larger than estimated:
approximately 30% of Earth surface is covered by trees.2
This increases our estimate to NT < 4.531012, which
is a slight overestimate. This therefore implies that our
-2
estimate of sT = d NN < 10-1 m-2 = 103 hectare-1 (in the
practical units of foresters) is 25% too high.
What then makes the superiority of the published value?
It is the fact that it comes with a confidence interval,
carefully and painstakingly established by analysing the
huge amount of detailed data presented in Ref. 1. Order-
of-magnitude reasoning offers rapid orientation, and
sometimes basic understanding, but confidence, both
in the general and technical (statistical) sense, must be
based on slow, detailed, and time-consuming research.
(Editors comment: imprecise estimates are often
good enough to answer the questions at hand. Not all
answers need three significant figures. LW)
In sum, an estimate obtained from simple observations
(forest coverage from maps, tree distance in a forest) and
a general order-of-magnitude reasoning procedure (geo-
metric mean estimate for dNN, according to Ref. 3, allows
for an approximate understanding of the number of trees
on Earth as an ecologically crucial number, recently
published in Nature.
383

References
1. T. W. Crowther, et al, Mapping tree density at a global
scale, Nature 525(7568), 201205 (2015).
2. UNEP Vital Forest Graphics, http://www.unep.org/vital-
forest and http://www.unep.org/vitalforest/Report/VFG-
01-Forest-definition-and-extent.pdf (2010/16). (access
3/3/3016).
3. L. Weinstein and J. A. Adam, Guesstimation: Solving the
Worlds Problems on the Back of a Cocktail Napkin,
Princeton University Press, ch. 1 (2008).

w Question 2: Life in the showers

How much total time do we spend bathing each year
(including both baths and showers)? Consider your
answer for the United States for one year or for one
person for their entire life.
Answer: The average American bathes every day or
two, typically in the shower. A typical shower takes
about 10 minutes (more than one minute and less than
an hour, so well use the geometric mean of the lower
and upper bounds for our estimate,
minutes, and round up to 10).
At 10 minutes a day, we spend 3.63103 minutes per
year, or 60 hours per year bathing. This is about 2.5 days
per year. That seems like a lot.
Looked at a different way, that 10 minutes, if indulged
in daily, represents only 1% of the 103 minutes in a day.
However, if we live to 80 years, then during the course
of our lifetime we will spend almost an entire year bath-
ing. If we bathe every other day, then we will spend
year bathing. If we bathe monthly, then we will spend
far less time bathing as well as far less time in social
interactions.
Considering the country as a whole, in one year the
33108 Americans spend a total time

This seems excessive. However, when considering coun-

try-sized numbers it is always important to compare the
apparently large numbers to other nation-scale quanti-
ties. This result of 43104 lifetimes/yr is still the same 1%
of the time that we calculated above.
Devoting 1% of our time to keeping clean is a small
price to pay.
Copyright 2016, Lawrence Weinstein.

384 THE PHYSICS TEACHER Vol. 54, S eptember 2016