MEMO: MOORE A LOCK FOR THE RUNOFF;

STRANGE LOOKING GOOD BUT NOT GUARANTEED

DATE: Thursday, August 10, 2017

TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Chris Kratzer, VP Polling & Communication
RE: Survey of Republican Special Election Primary Voters in Alabama

Alabama-based polling, communication & digital firm C ygnal conducted a telephone survey this week in
Alabama to examine the Republican primary election for the open US Senate seat vacated by US
Attorney General Jeff Sessions. It is representative of a projected GOP primary turnout universe of
467,000, although we believe turnout will be lower than that. For this reason, we have a Low Turnout
Propensity crosstab to show the highest propensity voters in a possible low turnout scenario, as
indicated by Yes. That population would be approximately 316,000 voters.

OVERALL RESULTS
We saw a lower-than-average screen-in rate with likelihood to vote at 86%, when the traditional
rate in a primary is in the mid-90s.
The top three candidates image rankings mirror the order on the ballot test - Roy Moore (56%
fav), Luther Strange (46% fav), and Mo Brooks (39% fav).
Roy Moore is holding steady around the 30% mark, which is very close to what we have seen in
the last five private surveys we have conducted for clients since the end of May.
Luther Strange leads Mo Brooks for second place by less than 2/10th of 1% outside the margin
of error of the survey.
In a theoretical runoff between Moore and Strange - assuming the turnout was similar to the
polls Primary turnout projection - Roy Moore leads by 11pts and 8% would not vote.
Yes - the Birmingham media market constitutes 42% of the states Republican primary voters.

LUTHER STRANGES IMAGE

Underwater with voters under the age of 55 (higher unfavorables than favorables).
Has -19pt favorability in the Huntsville media market; above 50% everywhere else combined.
Performs better with lower- and medium-income households.
Has a 1:1 fav/unfav ratio among Roy Moore voters.

ROY MOORES IMAGE

Viewed 6pts more favorable by male voters compared to female voters.
Birmingham media market voters are 64% favorable / 29% unfavorable of Moore.
Favorability increases as a voters likelihood to participate in elections decreases.

MO BROOKS IMAGE
Upside-down with voters age 55+, which tend to be the most likely to vote.
Obviously most favorable in the Huntsville media market (58% fav / 31% unfav).
Dropped 6pts in favorables between the two interview days.
Strange and Moore voters have an overwhelming unfavorable opinion of Brooks.
PRIMARY BALLOT MATCHUP
Moore leads by double-digits in every age group, except voters age 70+ where he still leads.
Strange performs 5pts better with females compared to males.
Moore performs 10pts better with males compared to females.
Brooks leads in the Huntsville media market by more than Moore & Strange combined.
Moore leads Strange by 12pts in the Birmingham media market.
Moore and Strange are tied in the Mobile media market.
Among voters with the highest propensity to vote, Strange and Brooks are exactly tied.
Strange and Brooks are statistically tied with voters of a medium propensity to participate.
Strange leads Brooks by 7pts among the lowest propensity voters, meaning a higher turnout will
favor Strange to make the runoff with Moore.
Strange leads the pack at 25% with voters who make more than $100,000/yr.
There was no noticeable difference in the ballot test between the first day - essentially before
Trumps endorsement of Strange - and the second day when the news really hit, except for the
fact that Brooks went from 20% to 16%.
Strange leads Brooks by 10pts among voters self-reporting as probably voting.
If Brooks doesnt make the runoff, 37% of his supporters would go to Moore and 40% would go
to Strange; 28% would not vote.

THEORETICAL MOORE-STRANGE RUNOFF

Strange would lead only in the Mobile media market but would have a 20pt deficit behind Moore
in the Birmingham media market - the states largest.
Moore and Strange would be tied among the highest propensity voters.
Moore would lead with voters of education level except those holding a graduate degree.
Moore received a slight bump between the two interview days on this question.

SUMMARY
Judge Roy Moore is the only candidate who has stayed consistent in image and ballot test since the
race started. Senator Luther Strange has a fight on his hands to ensure he is in the runoff and then has
a tougher battle to defeat Moore. Congressman Mo Brooks upside-down favorables are going to be the
main factor if he does not make the runoff. If nothing else, this proves that negative advertising works.
As is always said in each poll analysis, turnout will play a major factor in final results, but in special
elections this is even more true.

METHODOLOGY
This telephone survey was conducted August 8-9, 2017, with 502 Republican primary special election
voters. It has a margin of error of 4.37%. Interviews were conducted using IVR technology to landlines
and live operators to cell phones. Landline interviews constituted 79% of the calls, while 21% were
conducted by cell phone. The survey was weighted to a projected statewide GOP special election
primary voter universe. [Cygnal paid for the survey, and L2 provided the voter data.]

ABOUT CYGNAL
Cygnal is a messaging, research, and digital firm serving center-right committees, organizations, and consultants.
We have served ~150 clients group and conducted more than 350 highly accurate polls in nearly every state. www.cygn.al

ABOUT L2
L2 is a nonpartisan, nationwide voter data and analytics firm. They invest significant resources in maintaining an accurate
voter file to ensure campaigns have the best tools at their disposal. www.l2political.com