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Abstract: This paper presents a new simplified liquefaction prediction and assessment method that is capable of considering the influence of
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the waveforms and durations of earthquakes. The concept of an effective number of waves was introduced to represent the characteristics of
the irregularity of waveforms and the different number of load cycles of irregular seismic motions, as well as their influence on the occurrence
of liquefaction. A comprehensive set of laboratory liquefaction tests and statistical analyses were performed to study and validate this concept.
The validity of the proposed method, which adopts a wave correction coefficient based on the proposed concept, was verified using the case
histories of five past major earthquakes, demonstrating that the predictive capability of the new method was improved compared with that of
the conventional method for the cases of liquefaction and no liquefaction. A unique feature of the new simplified method is its universality,
allowing it to be applied to various types of liquefaction charts, facilitating more-rational liquefaction prediction and assessment worldwide.
DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0001597. This work is made available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
International license, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Fig. 1. Liquefaction chart based on standard penetration tests (SPTs) for magnitude 7.5 earthquakes (reprinted from Youd et al. 2001, ASCE; data
from Seed et al. 1985)
25
20
Equivalent N-value
15
10
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0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Equivalent acceleration: Gal
0.4 0.4
0.3 0.3
0.2 0.2
0.1 0.1
0 0
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-0.1 -0.1
-0.2 -0.2
-0.3 -0.3
-0.4 -0.4
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 0 100 200 300 400 500 600
(c) Time: s (d) Time: s
0.4 0.6
0.3 0.4
0.2
Shear stress ratio:
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.2
Shear stress ratio:
Shear stress ratio:
0.1
0 0
-0.2 -0.1
-0.2
-0.4
-0.3
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0 200 400 600 800 1000
(g) Time: s (h) Time: s
0.4
0.4 0.3
0.2
Shear stress ratio:
0.2
0.1
0 0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
-0.4 -0.3
-0.4
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
(i) Time: s (j) Time: s
0.3
0.2
Shear stress ratio:
0.1
0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
(k) Time: s
Fig. 4. Eleven types of irregular seismic waves used for laboratory liquefaction tests: (a) Wave 1; (b) Wave 2; (c) Wave 3; (d) Wave 4; (e) Wave 5;
(f) Wave 6; (g) Wave 7; (h) Wave 8; (i) Wave 9; (j) Wave 10; (k) Wave 11
specimens of silica sand with a median grain size D50 0.17 mm through air pluviation by adjusting the fall height to achieve the
and a uniformity coefficient U c 1.7. The sizes of the hollow targeted relative densities, and were frozen and set in the cell with
cylindrical specimens were 30 mm in internal diameter, 70 mm subsequent thawing in Series 1, whereas in Series 2 samples were
in external diameter, and 70 mm in height for Series 1, and prepared by dry vibratory compaction. In both series, the samples
60 mm in internal diameter, 100 mm in external diameter, and were saturated so that the pore pressure coefficient B became
100 mm in height for Series 2. The size of the cylindrical specimen, higher than 0.95 and were isotropically consolidated to an effective
0
which was confined in 10 circular Teflon polytetrafluorethylene stress of m0 98 kPa, and then subjected to undrained cyclic
rings each with a thickness of 4 mm, was 100 mm in diameter torsional shear with given seismic waves. Series 3 samples were
and 40 mm in height for Series 3. The samples were prepared prepared by dry vibratory compaction and were K o consolidated
100
0.2
80
60
0.1
40
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20
0
0 1 10 100 1000
(a) Number of cycles: Nc
-20
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
0.6
Time: s
10
0.5 Series T-2
:%
0.4
Shear strain
0 0
to a vertical effective stress of v0 98 kPa, and were then sub- 1 10 100 1000
(b) Number of cycles: Nc
jected to constant-volume cyclic simple shear with given seismic
waves. The 11 types of irregular waves shown in Fig. 4, which 0.6
had a wide variety of waveforms and durations with the number
of seismic waves ranging from 10 to over 300, were collected
0.5 Series S
and/or artificially created on the basis of the seismic records of past
earthquakes. The time axes of the loaded seismic waves were cali-
brated and elongated so as to assure accurate control of the loads 0.4
during the undrained or constant-volume cyclic shear of the sam-
Cyclic stress ratio
Correlation coefficient R
Maximum cyclic stress ratio
0.8
0.7
0.6
Dr = 65%
0.6
0.4
0.5
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0.2 0.4
0 5 10 15 20
Maximum double amplitude shear strain :%
Dr = 50%
70% Time
60%
50%
1.8
40%
30%
20%
10%
1.6
0.6
1.4
0.6
1.2
In this case : Nef =5/2=2.5
Fig. 10. Definition of effective number of waves
1
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Number of half waves above
The correlation coefficient, R, was lower for low values of . The
Fig. 8. Relationships between the liquefaction resistance ratio R-value increased with increasing , reached a peak and then de-
CRRIR =CRR20 and the number of half-waves having intensities above creased with increasing . For Dr 40%, however, the R-value
max for Dr 65% was consistently high, which stemmed from the smaller number
of test cases for very soft soils, as given in Table 1. Overall, the
results indicate that there exists an optimal value of at around
waves may not make a significant contribution to the occurrence of 60%. This means that the number of half-waves having inten-
liquefaction due to the lesser cyclic plasticity of the soils (e.g., Sassa sities above 0.6 max had the highest correlations with CRRIR =
and Sekiguchi 2001). In other words, seismic waves having inten- CRR20 . Hence, with reference to Fig. 10, the effective number of
sities above certain proportions of the maximum waves may effec- waves, N ef , was defined as half the number of half-waves above
tively contribute to the occurrence of liquefaction. The proportion 0.6 max in the time history of the shear stress variation due to
of such waves was defined as , and the relationships between , irregular seismic waves, as shown in Fig. 10. By definition, the
specifically the number of half-waves having intensities above N ef value becomes equal to N c in the case of regular seismic waves.
max , and the liquefaction susceptibility defined by the ratio Ishihara and Yasuda (1973, 1975) classified the waveforms of
CRRIR =CRR20 was studied. Example relationships are plotted irregular seismic waves as a shock type and vibratory type, depend-
in Fig. 8 for 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, and 90% and ing on the number of waves preceding the maximum whose am-
Dr 65%. The dotted lines represent power-function regression plitudes are greater than 60% of the maximum shear stress max .
curves whose correlations were analyzed for all of the test cases This classification, however, has proven insufficient in characteriz-
in Table 1. The results of this statistical analysis are shown in Fig. 9. ing the degree of the irregularity because it was based solely on
curves and the dotted lines will be explained later with reference
to the proposed equations. It is seen that the CRRIR value de-
creases with increasing N ef , and its dependency varies considerably 0
with Dr . 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
(a) Effective number of waves Nef
a 0.20.7 Dr 5
Here, Eq. (5) is valid for a 0, thus, Dr 2=7, that is, nearly 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
30%, and under very soft soil conditions with Dr < 2=7, it follows (b) Effective number of waves Nef
that a 0 and c 1. Eqs. (4) and (5) indicate that c increases
for N ef < N r and decreases for N ef > N r. The Dr value can be as- 1.2
sessed from the widely used correlation with the SPT N-value
Dr = 40%
(Meyerhof 1957; Ishihara 1996): Dr = 50%
s 1
Dr = 65%
Dr = 80%
Series S
170 N Dr = 90%
Dr 0.16 6 : Regression of measured values
70 v0
Liquefaction resistance CRRIR
1.4 6
1.2
4
Nr = 5
1
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2
0.8
0.6
30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0
Dr: % 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Number of soil layers
2.2
Nef=1
Nef = 1 Fig. 13. Effective numbers of waves calculated through site response
2 Nef=2.5
Nef = 2.5 analysis using the SHAKE code for the 1983 Central Japan Sea Earth-
Nef=5
Nef = 5 quake at Akita Port, Japan
Nef = 7.5
Nef=7.5
1.8 Nef = 10
Nef=10
Nef = 12.5
Nef=12.5 30
Wave correction coefficient
1.6 Nr = 5 Current
:Nef = 1 Corrected
:Nef =10 Corrected
25
1.4
1.2
20
Equivalent N-value
Nr = 5
1
15
0.8
0.6 10
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
N-value No liquefaction
25
0.8
20
Equivalent N-value
0.6
15
200
0.4 10
Acceleration: Gal
150 max = 177Gal
100
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50
0
-50
5 -100
0.2 -150
-200
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Time: s
0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
0 Equivalent acceleration : Gal
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
Measured liquefaction resistance CRRIR Fig. 16. Results of the liquefaction prediction and assessment for the
1983 Central Japan Sea Earthquake at Akita Port, Japan, together with
Fig. 15. Comparison between predicted and measured liquefaction the input acceleration used
resistances
of waves with N ef 10. The symbol e0 represents the corrected represents an outcrop 2E wave that was deconvolved to the rock
equivalent acceleration, namely, the corrected cyclic stress ratio as base, which was at a depth of 7 m from the ground surface, at the
divided by the wave correction coefficient c . The panel on the site from the observed waveform of the ground surface acceleration
bottom shows that the plots can vary, crossing the dividing line there. The site response analysis using the SHAKE code was per-
between liquefaction and no liquefaction. formed for the soil profiles at the Akita Port. The new method was
It is necessary to check the accuracy of the wave correction co- then applied to the corresponding liquefaction prediction and as-
efficient, c . The predicted liquefaction resistances using Eqs. (4) sessment. The predicted results are shown in Fig. 16. Here, the
and (5), i.e., the dotted lines in Fig. 11, and the measured liquefac- solid circles represent the liquefied points, and the open circles re-
tion resistances, i.e., the solid lines in Fig. 11, are plotted as solid present the nonliquefied points. The liquefied and nonliquefied
circles in Fig. 15. Comparison of the predicted and measured lique- points are based on postearthquake field observations for the sites.
faction resistances confirms the accuracy of the wave correction The results from the conventional method and the new method with
coefficient, c . In Fig. 15, the predictions from a fatigue theory the wave corrections introduced are plotted together in a superim-
(Annaki and Lee 1977) are also plotted as open circles for compari- posed manner. It is seen that, regardless of the presence or absence
son. Here, the liquefaction resistances for the irregular waves were of the wave corrections, both of the predicted results are generally
predicted using information on the liquefaction resistance curves consistent with the liquefaction and no-liquefaction cases.
for the regular waves shown in Fig. 6. Essentially the same degree The input acceleration used for the 1993 Kushiro Offshore
of accuracy is observed for both theories. Earthquake at Kushiro Port is shown in Fig. 17. This acceleration
was observed at the engineering rock base [ground surface level
(G.L.), 76 m] of Kushiro Port. The results of the corresponding
Verification of the Proposed Method Using Case liquefaction prediction and assessment, performed in the same way
Histories of Five Major Earthquakes as described above, are shown in Fig. 17. At the observation site, no
traces of liquefaction were reported. The predicted results show no
This section discusses the validity of the proposed new liquefaction liquefaction (Zone IV) and a low possibility of liquefaction (Zone
prediction and assessment method in light of the past case histories III) regardless of the presence or absence of the wave corrections,
of major earthquakes involving liquefaction and no liquefaction. and are consistent with the observed results. Closer examination
The basal liquefaction chart for which the proposed method was tells us that the predicted results after introducing the wave correc-
applied is shown in Fig. 2. The case histories used were (1) the tions show higher equivalent accelerations globally and partly ap-
1983 Central Japan Sea Earthquake with a moment magnitude proached Zone II with a high possibility of liquefaction. At Kushiro
of 7.8 at Akita Port, (2) 1993 Kushiro Offshore Earthquake with Port, although the liquefaction state was not reached, cyclic mobil-
a moment magnitude of 7.6 at Kushiro Port, (3) 1995 Southern ity that manifests itself in the course of the build-up of excess pore-
Hyogo Prefecture Earthquake with a moment magnitude of 6.9 water pressures in dense sands was reported to take place (Iai et al.
at Port Island Kobe, (4) 2009 Suruga Bay Earthquake with a mo- 1995). In this respect, the results predicted by the new method
ment magnitude of 6.3 at Omaezaki Port, and (5) 2011 Off the appear to be more consistent with the field evidence in cases with
Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake with a moment magnitude no liquefaction but a partly near-liquefied state.
of 9.0 at Urayasu City, Japan. The acceleration observed at G.L. of 16 m through array
The input acceleration used for the 1983 Central Japan Sea observation at Port Island Kobe during the 1995 Southern Hyogo
Earthquake at Akita Port is shown in Fig. 16. This acceleration Prefecture Earthquake was used as an input for the liquefaction
Acceleration: Gal
Acceleration: Gal
200 max = 203Gal 200 max = 316Gal
100 100
0
25 0
-100
25 -100
-200
-200
-300
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 -300
20 Time: s -400
Equivalent N-value
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
20 Time: s
Equivalent N-value
15
15
10
5 10
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0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 5
Equivalent acceleration : Gal
Fig. 17. Results of the liquefaction prediction and assessment for the
1993 Kushiro Offshore Earthquake at Kushiro Port, Japan, together 0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
with the input acceleration used Equivalent acceleration : Gal
Fig. 19. Results of the liquefaction prediction and assessment for the
2009 Suruga Bay Earthquake at Omaezaki Port, Japan, together with
the input acceleration used
30
and used as an input for the liquefaction prediction and assessment
600 is shown in Fig. 19. As seen in this figure, the seismic motion was
Acceleration: Gal
25 400 max = 565Gal in impulsive form, giving rise to a very low effective number of
200 waves, equal to unity. At the observation site, no traces of lique-
0 faction were found, indicating that liquefaction did not take place.
-200 The results of the corresponding liquefaction prediction and assess-
20
-400 ment are shown in Fig. 19. The conventional method predicted that
Equivalent N-value
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Time: s
liquefaction will occur or that there is a high possibility of lique-
faction. By contrast, the new method predicted significantly lower
15 possibilities of liquefaction, with a major shift in the predictive
zones. Thus, the new method showed markedly improved predic-
tive capability and consistency with the no-liquefaction cases.
10 The acceleration observed adjacent to the Urayasu City during
the 2011 Off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake, and used as
an input for the analysis of the liquefaction is shown in Fig. 20. The
5
Tohoku earthquake had a long duration (200 s) that was about 10
times longer than that of the 1995 major Kobe Earthquake. The
results of the corresponding liquefaction prediction and assessment
are shown in Fig. 20. The predicted results are generally consistent
0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
with the observed results for liquefaction and no liquefaction. A
Equivalent acceleration : Gal closer examination shows that the new method showed increased
equivalent accelerations in Zone II, with a high possibility of lique-
Fig. 18. Results of the liquefaction prediction and assessment for the faction, confirming the accuracy of the predictions in the liquefac-
1995 Southern Hyogo Prefecture Earthquake at Port Island Kobe, tion cases. Also, the liquefied point, indicated by the solid triangle
Japan, together with the input acceleration used in Zone III, which was predicted to have a low possibility of lique-
faction by the conventional method, shifted marginally so as to
come in contact with the boundary of Zone II, showing a high pos-
prediction and assessment shown in Fig. 18. At the observation site, sibility of liquefaction. These results indicate that the new method
traces of liquefaction were confirmed, indicating that liquefaction has improved predictive capability in liquefaction cases.
took place at the site. The results of the corresponding liquefaction Finally, it is worth investigating the relationships between the
prediction and assessment are shown in Fig. 18. All of the predicted effective number of waves N ef and the magnitudes M of the five
results, regardless of the wave corrections, lie in Zone I, showing major earthquakes described earlier, as shown in Fig. 21. While
that liquefaction will occur, and are consistent with the liquefac- there is a tendency for the effective number of waves to increase
tion cases. with increasing magnitude, it is evident that a unique relationship
The acceleration observed at the engineering rock base (G.L., does not exist between N ef and M, and in particular, N ef varies
10 m) of Omaezaki Port during the 2009 Suruga Bay Earthquake, considerably for a given earthquake magnitude. This means that
0
5 -50 Japan, namely, the 1983 Central Japan Sea Earthquake, the 1993
-100
-150
Kushiro Offshore Earthquake, the 1995 Southern Hyogo Prefecture
00 100 200 300 400 500
100 200 300
Time: s
400 500
Earthquake, the 2009 Suruga Bay Earthquake, and the 2011 Off the
0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake. The results demonstrate that
Equivalent acceleration : Gal the new method has improved predictive capability and accuracy in
comparison with the conventional method for cases of liquefaction
Fig. 20. (Color) Results of the liquefaction prediction and assessment and no liquefaction.
for the 2011 Off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake at Urayasu The proposed new method with the reference effective number
City, Japan, together with the input acceleration used of waves has the unique feature that it can be applied to all types
of liquefaction charts formulated in terms of the cyclic stress ratio
and field measured values, such as SPT N-values, CPT q-values,
12 and shear-wave velocities. The corresponding procedures were de-
scribed and explained. The authors sincerely hope that the new sim-
plified method will be widely used for liquefaction prediction and
10 assessment with such influence of the waveforms and durations of
earthquakes introduced.
Effective number of waves Nef
8
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to acknowledge Urayasu City, Japan, for
6 providing the ground data concerning the analysis of the liquefac-
tion at Urayasu City.
4
Notation