1921 June 2014 Celje, Slovenia

Forecasting the Container Throughput in the Port

of Koper using Time Series ARIMA model
Dejan DRAGAN1* and Toma KRAMBERGER2
1University of Maribor/Faculty of Logistics, Celje, Slovenia
2University of Maribor/Faculty of Logistics, Celje, Slovenia

Abstract - Paper addresses the forecasting of container throughput in the Port of Koper, which is located in the
North Adriatic Sea (Slovenia). The main characteristics of the port are briefly introduced and its role from the
European perspective is shortly presented. The forecaster is based on the Box-Jenkins autoregressive
integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series model. The main purpose of the design of such model is to
provide the ports authorities with the sufficiently accurate forecasting decision support system, which would
support the managerial decisions about the optimization of port operations and facilities. The model is trained
and tested for the 10 year-period container throughput data, which corresponds to the quarter-divided years
2002-2012. The structure of the derived model is presented and the prediction results are provided. The quality
of model's fit is tested by the means of observing the mean absolute error (MAE), the mean absolute percent
error (MAPE), and the root mean square error (RMSE), respectively. The results show that the ARIMA model can
assure the good forecasting performance, since its predictions are quite accurate, and the MAE, MAPE and
RMSE indicators achieve the sufficiently small values.

Key wordsBox-Jenkins ARIMA time series model, container throughput in the Port of Koper, decision support
systems, forecasting.

I. INTRODUCTION

In the last decades, the importance of ports has gained in the importance due to the
technological development of maritime transport and its increasing role in the national economies.
Among the whole spectrum of activities, which happen in the ports, the cargo throughput is also
very important, since it is closely related to the operational management, development plans,
reconstruction design and improved organization of port processes [1].
Thus the importance to have as much accurate cargo throughput forecasting as possible is
not surprising, since the latter can significantly impact on the strategy of the port development, the
future investments and the management of daily operations, respectively [1]. This means that the
inability to have sufficiently accurate forecasts may cause a huge damage, especially from the
financial point of view. Namely, the wrong managerial decisions based on the inaccurate forecasts
can cause the inadequate infrastructure investments, the inappropriate future port strategy and
the improper port redesign decisions, respectively [2].
This paper deals with the design of the forecaster based on the Box-Jenkins autoregressive
integrated moving average univariate time series model [3-6]. The work represents a part of
prototyping design of forecasting decision support system for the Port of Koper (Slovenia), which is
located in the North Adriatic Sea (part of the Mediterranean Sea). The main purpose of the
forecasting model is to predict the 20 foot container throughput volume time series as much
accurate as possible.
The Box-Jenkins ARIMA models are very important in the statistical and particularly in the
econometrical field, called the time series analysis. They represent the generalization of the
autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models and are applied in the case of detected non-
stationarity of the observed data [2]. Since the latter was also identified in our study, the
"integrated" part of the model has to be additionally applied to remove the non-stationary
properties of the original time series. The model is fitted to the observed time series data while
processing the time series analysis for two reasons: to better understand the nature of the stochastic

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 1921 June 2014 Celje, Slovenia

mechanism which generates the observed time series, and to develop the forecasting model,
which enables us to predict the future values of the time series.
The derived model is trained and tested for the 10 year-period container throughput historical
quarterly data set of 42 measurements, which corresponds to the time series sequence of years
2002-2012. After the completion of model identification procedure and estimation of the
parameters of identified model, the model's diagnostic checking is also done. The quality of model
fit to the real data is then verified by the means of observing the mean absolute error, the mean
absolute percent error and the root mean square error, respectively.
Surprisingly, there have not been detected many research papers, which would study any kind
of forecasting performance in the ports located in the North Adriatic Sea. So the development of
the throughput forecasting model and the achievement of fairly good prediction results are
believed to be one of the contributions of this study.
The paper is further organized as follows. Section 2 presents a brief literature review of the
existing approaches for forecasting the container throughput. The description of the Port of Koper
and the treated historical data of container throughput are given in Section 3. The Box-Jenkins
methodology of derivation of the ARIMA model is stressed in Section 4. In Section 5, an excerpt of
the numerical prediction results is given and the predictive power of the constructed ARIMA model
is demonstrated.

II. LITERATURE REVIEW

Careful examination of the literature for the last two decades shows the whole spectrum of
scientific papers, which has been dedicated to the forecasting of container throughput. For this
purpose, several different methodologies have been applied, which can be divided into the two
main categories: the category of simpler models and the category of more sophisticated
models.
The first category includes the exponential smoothing time series models, the regression time
series models, the distributed lag models, and so on, which are in principle easier to understand.
Into the second category we can classify the Box-Jenkins autoregressive models, neural networks
models, nonlinear time series models, state space models and different hybrid models. These
models in principle apply more complex theory methods, like advanced econometric methods,
chaos theory, artificial intelligence, emerging systems, automata, and so on [7].
Many authors emphasize the forecasting problems, which can be particularly bothersome,
when the exogenous factors play an important role and have a significant impact on the behavior
of cargo throughput time series. In these cases, the construction of the forecasting models may
require a significant level of research efforts in order to develop the appropriate model for
prediction purposes [7-9].
Table 1 shows some of the important methods, which have been used for the solving of
different forecasting and similar problems in the field of port economics, maritime economics and
general transportation [7, 10-17].
It is also worthy to mention that in the last decade there has been presented some other
important models for the forecasting of container throughput, which can show important
guidelines for the future research. For instance, Fung [8] has shown the performance of the error-
correction model, Peng and Chu [2] have demonstrated the comparison of the prediction power
of six different univariate forecasting models (classical decomposition model, trigonometric
regression model, regression model with seasonal dummy variables, the grey and hybrid grey
model, and SARIMA model), Zhang and his associates [1] have presented the working mechanism
of the combined grey-forecast and Logistic-growth-curve model, while Xie and his colleges [9]
have illustrated the hybrid approaches based on least squares support vector regression (LSSVR).
This study is particularly interested, since it has exposed an increasing role of more complex
forecasting models after the occurrence of the world's economic crisis.

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 1921 June 2014 Celje, Slovenia

Table 1. Some of the important methods, used for the solving of different forecasting and similar
problems in port economics, maritime economics and general transportation

Authors Year Methodology Purpose

Prediction of future
Walter and volumes of total
1988 Iterative nonlinear programming model
Younger waterborne imports and
exports

Forecasting maritime
Gooijer and Klein 1989 Multivariate time series model traffic flow in the port of
Antwerp

Forecasting future supply

Exponential regression model due to correlation
Tongzon 1991 of shipping services in the
coefficients
port of Melbourne

Identification of the
Linear regression based on least squares
Zohil and Prijon 1999 Mediterranean
methods
transshipment pattern

Identification of influence
Seabrooke et al 2003 OLS regression (43 equations) of economic indicators on
cargo traffic

Combined Univariate ARIMA and a Neural Forecasting of Suez Canal

Mostafa 2004
Networks (NN) model traffic

Statistical and econometric methods, frequently Presentation of methods in

Washington et al 2004
used in transportation the field of transportation

Forecasting of 37 types of
Lam et al 2004 Neural Network (NN) model cargo traffic in the port of
Hong Kong

Nonlinear forecasting of
Goulielmos and
2011 Nonlinear time series analysis and chaos theory container traffic in the Port
Kaselimi
of Piraeus

After the careful investigation of the properties of the observed throughput time series, we
have decided to apply the ARIMA model. Namely, we have been quite sure that this kind of model
can deal with the challenge of developing a sufficiently accurate system for forecasting the
container throughput in the Port of Koper.

III. THE DESCRIPTION OF THE PORT OF KOPER AND THE HISTORICAL DATA

The Port of Koper is a modern, well organized and well equipped multipurpose hub, which
operates day and night, all year long. It is also known as the largest car terminal in the Adriatic Sea.
The port is the Border Inspection spot for the European Union and the entire area has a so-called
Free Zone status. It is located on the south coast of the Gulf of Trieste (c.f. Fig. 1), and it has 11
terminals in the port area with a total quay length more then 3.300 meters [18]. The basic activities
in the port are performed by the following specialized terminals [18, 19]:

Car Terminal,
Container and Ro-Ro Terminal,
General Cargo Terminal,
Timber Terminal,
Livestock Terminal,
Fruit Terminal,
Terminal for Minerals,
Terminal for Cereals and Fodder,

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 1921 June 2014 Celje, Slovenia

European Energy Terminal,

Alumina Terminal, and
Liquid Cargoes Terminal.

All the terminals are located alongside the berths and are equipped with the modern loading,
transport and storing capacities. At each terminal the following special warehouse facilities are
available: silo, shore-tanks, air-conditioned areas and deep-freezing storage areas. All of them are
directly linked with the railway [18].

Fig. 1. The North Adriatic Ports and the Location of the Port of Koper

Concerning maritime routes, the Port of Koper is connected with other ports and regions on
the basis of 14 so-called services [18]. The latter represent the maritime connectedness and can be
divided into the two categories: the direct deep-sea services from/to the Far East (two services)
and the rest of 12 services, related to the ports located in the Mediterranean (the short-sea intra-
Mediterranean services). These services are also called the "feeder" services, since they also cover
the other important Mediterranean hub ports, like Malta, Piraeus, Gioia Tauro, Haifa, Taranto, and
so on [18].
For the Port of Koper, the Central and Eastern European market is very important (see Fig. 2). It
is especially interesting for the goods flows, which are related to the exchange of goods on the East
West route (and vice versa). The Port of Koper performs most of its services for the hinterland
countries such as Austria, Slovakia, Poland, southern Germany, Italy, Hungary, the Czech Republic,
Switzerland, Croatia, and so on. Since the traffic in transit has the major share, the port of Koper
can be mostly treated as a transit port (c.f. Fig. 3). Seventy percent of the land traffic from the port
is transported by the railway and thirty percent by the road. On average, only 36% of the cargo is
designed for the Slovenian market, while the 64% is related to the hinterland countries [18].

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 1921 June 2014 Celje, Slovenia

Fig. 2. The distribution of transit cargo in the Port of Koper

Fig. 3. The integration of the Port of Koper into the railway and road land traffic network

The port of Koper is designed for the handling of different types of goods such as containers,
cars, timber products, dry bulks, general cargo, livestock, ores & coal, liquid cargo, alumina,
cereals, and so on (see Fig. 4).

Fig. 4. The distribution shares of the types of cargo handled in the Port of Koper

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 1921 June 2014 Celje, Slovenia

This port is also the member of so-called "North Adriatic Ports Association" (NAPA), which was
founded in March 2010 by the Port Authorities of Ravenna, Venice, Trieste (all in Italy), and Koper.
The Port of Rijeka (Croatia) became a full member in November 2010 [19]. Obviously, the NAPA
ports have a very suitable geographical position (c.f. Fig. 1 and 3) and can provide a waterway,
which penetrates quite deeply into the South-East side of the European continent. As a
consequence, the route from the Far East via Suez to Europe is about 2,000 Nautical miles shorter
than in the case of North-European ports [19]. Thus the NAPA ports could represent very interesting
gateway to the main European markets and could provide a steady supply of goods to the
approximately 500 million European consumers [19].
Concerning the total cargo throughput of the NAPA ports, it was 120 million tones in 2010,
where the container throughput accounted for the 1.471.908 TEUs [19]. Table 2 shows the
comparison of total throughput and container traffic of NAPA ports with respect to some other
European important ports [19].

Table 2. The comparison of total throughput and container traffic for NAPA ports with respect to
some other important European ports (Year 2011)

Port Total throughput (mil. tones) Container traffic (mil. TEUs)

Rotterdam 434.0 11.8

Antwerp 187.1 8.6

Hamburg 132.2 9.0

NAPA Ports 124.2 1.8

Marseille 88.2 0.9

Bremen 80.5 5.9

Zeebrugge 47.0 2.2

The main reason for the establishment of the NAPA ports was the desire to joint their strengths
in order to be more competitive with respect to the other significant ports in Europe, particularly
those in the Northern Europe. But despite the successful collaboration of the NAPA ports, there still
exists some competition among them too, of course.

A. The nature of the historical container throughput time series data

Fig. 5 shows 20foot containers throughput time series (in thousands of tones), which was
measured for the ten year period in the Port of Koper. As it can be seen from Fig. 5, a historical data
set corresponds to the sequence of years 2002-2012. This sequence is divided into quarters,
beginning with the first quarter of year 2002, and ending with the second quarter of year 2012,
which means in total the 42 available measurements. The time series, shown in Fig. 5, has been
naturally appropriately pre-filtered, which means the elimination of all undesired outliers, spikes and
other undesired non-regularities. From Fig. 5 it can be also noticed that the throughput for the port
of Koper has mostly quite steady and gradual growing trend in the observed time scale, where
some significant drop-ups and drop-downs can not be noticed. From the visual inspection of the
observed time series nature and its dynamical properties we suspect that it has a non-stationary
character. Thus the employment of ARIMA model will hopefully be the appropriate modeling
approach to design a sufficiently accurate forecasting system.

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 1921 June 2014 Celje, Slovenia

Fig. 5. The 20 foot large containers throughput time series data measured in the Port of Koper

IV. THE BOX-JENKINS METHODOLOGY OF DERIVATION OF THE ARIMA MODEL

In this section, the basic principles of the Box-Jenkins methodology will be firstly shortly
introduced. After that the main characteristics of the structure of ARIMA models will be also briefly
presented.

A. The Box-Jenkins methodology and ARIMA models

Yule (1927) was the first one who has introduced the notion of stochasticity in time series by
assuming that every time series can be considered as the realization of a stochastic process [11].
Based on this idea, a huge number of time series methods have been introduced since then. But
the publication of Box and Jenkins in 1970 [3] was the first one, which gave the systematic
framework for time series identification, estimation and verification. In their work, the systematic
application of the ARIMA methodology for the study of time series analysis by using the ARIMA class
of models was also firstly introduced [20]. Box Jenkins methodology for time series modeling consists
of a four-step iterative procedure [21-23] (see Fig. 6):

Step 1: Tentative (preliminary) identification - historical data are used for the preliminary
identification of appropriate Box-Jenkins model.
Step 2: Estimation - historical data are used to estimate the parameters of the identified model.
Step 3: Diagnostic checking - various diagnostic procedures are used to check the adequacy of
the identified model and, if necessary, to suggest an improved model, which is then considered as
a new preliminary identified model.
Step 4: Forecasting - once a final model is derived, it is used to forecast future time series values.

Identification can be divided into two stages: The preparation of data and appropriate
selection of the model of stationary time series. During the first stage, the data must be
transformed, if unstable variance is detected, and it must be differenced, if non-stationarity is
found. This way, the detected trends are removed and stationarity is achieved, which means the
homogenous mean, variance and other statistical properties [24]. The visual observation of the
time series, the correlogram analysis, and the unit-root tests of the data usually provide the most

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 1921 June 2014 Celje, Slovenia

appropriate tools for the determination of possible non-stationarity of the time series [24].
Concerning the correlogram analysis, we start from the fact that the non-stationary series is having
slowly decaying ACF (Autocorrelation function) and PACF (Partial ACF). During the second stage of
the identification process, the behavior of ACF and PACF of corresponding stationary time series is
usually studied. The main purpose of this stage is to define the structure and estimate the order of
the possible autoregressive (AR), moving average (MA), or mixed (ARMA) model. When this stage is
completed, the whole family of potential models can be formed as a final result of the
identification step [3, 23, 25].

Fig. 6. The flow Diagram for the Box Jenkins Model-Building Strategy

In estimation procedure, the initial estimates of the parameters of identified models are usually
computed at first. After that, the iterative process is usually applied to get the final estimates of the
parameters [26]. Nowadays, many computer programs have the ability of automatic fitting of
ARIMA models. This means that they automatically find appropriate initial estimates and then refine
them until the optimal values of the parameters are found. For the estimation purposes, the
maximum likelihood or some other appropriate estimation procedure is used in the framework of
these programs [25]. Since there may be several plausible models identified after the completion of
estimation procedure, the so-called "Akaike's Information Criterion" (AIC), "Bayesian Information
Criterion" (BIC) and/or "Final Prediction Error" (FPE) values are usually calculated for each model in
order to select the best model [25].
When doing the diagnostic checking, the verification about the selected best model
adequacy must be carried out. For this purpose, the residuals of the model are studied in order to
detect any remained unaccounted patterns [25]. For a good forecasting model, the model's
residuals should be as much similar to white noise as possible [25]. To make this possible, the ACF
and PACF of the residuals should be obtained to find out if there are no existing significant residuals
autocorrelations and partial autocorrelations. A so-called Portmanteu (Ljung-Box) test can be also
applied to the analysis of residuals as an additional test of fit. This test shows us if the residuals can
be considered as a white noise series [25].
In the forecasting step, when the most appropriate model is finally found, it can be used to
generate the future forecast values. Confidence intervals can be also computed for each of the
forecast point values [26].

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 1921 June 2014 Celje, Slovenia

B. The structure of the ARIMA models family

In general, the structure of the ARIMA models family can be represented by the following
expression [3]:

d
( B ) (1 B ) y ( t ) = ( B ) ( t )
(1)
( B)

where the stationary autoregressive operator (B) and invertible moving average operator (B)
are:
( B ) = 1 1 B 2 B 2 ... p B p
(2)
( B ) = 1 1 B 2 B 2 ... q B q

= 1 B is the differencing operator, B is the backshift operator, p is the order of the AR

component, q is the order of the MA component, d is the order of differencing (number of
differences needed to get the stationary series, which also represents the number of unit roots), i
and i are the parameters of the AR and MA operator, respectively, y ( t ) is the corresponding
time series, and the (t ) is the random error. The AR component represent the dependence of the
present stationary observation with respect to the past observations, while the MA component
represent the dependence of the present stationary observation with respect to the past random
errors [26]. The integrated component (I) is defined by the order of differencing d, which represents
the degree of first differences involved [23].
The structure given above is so-called the "ARIMA ( p, d , q ) model", where the requirements of
stationarity and invertibility must be met, since this is one of the fundamental demands of the Box-
Jenkins time series modeling approach [3]. The meaning of stationarity has already been explained
before. Concerning the invertibility, it implies that when expressing a corresponding time series as a
function of past observations, the weights placed on these observations must decline as we
penetrate further into the past. By other word this means that the more recent observation should
count more heavily than the observation from the more distant past [21].

C. The evaluation of the forecasting accuracy of ARIMA models

The most common statistical measures for the evaluation of the forecasting accuracy of the
forecasting models are [27]: the Mean Squared Error (MSE), the Mean Absolute deviation (MAD),
and the Mean Absolute Percentage Deviation (MAPE), respectively. The forecasting error for the
time period t can be represented by the difference between the real and estimated time series:
e ( t ) = y ( t ) y ( t ) . Thus we have the following expression for the MSE and RMSE (square root of
MSE) [27]:

1 n 2
MSE = e (t )
n t =1 (3)

RMSE = MSE

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 1921 June 2014 Celje, Slovenia

MAD can be expressed by:

1 n
MAD = e (t ) (4)
n t =1

and MAPE can be expressed in percentages by:

1 n e (t )
MAPE = 100 (5)
n t =1 y ( t )

In this study, the measures RMSE, MAD and MAPE have been used to evaluate the forecasting
performance of the treated forecasting model.

V. PRACTICAL NUMERICAL RESULTS

In this section, the illustration of estimation and prediction results of the constructed ARIMA
forecasting model will be given at first. After that, the evaluation of its forecasting accuracy will be
also presented. All the calculations were carried out in Matlab, using the Statistics, Econometrics
and Identification toolbox, respectively.

A. Estimation and prediction results of the constructed ARIMA model

At the identification step of ARIMA procedure, it was established that a first order differencing
(d =1) is needed to achieve the stationary time series. While processing the selection of the
appropriate order of AR and MA component, different orders up to fifth order ( p, q = 1, , 5 ) have
been investigated. After the execution of the estimation procedure, several plausible models have
appeared. When the AIC and FPE criterions were calculated for each of these models, it turned out
that the following ARIMA model is the most convenient with respect to the investigation of statistical
significance (level 0.05) of estimated parameters (see also expressions (1) and (2)):

1
(1 0.9043 B ) (1 B ) y ( t ) = (1 0.807 B3 ) ( t )
(6)
( B) ( B)
(10.5329 ) (14.1212 )

The values in parenthesis refer to the t-values of the significant coefficient estimates. Naturally,
all the needed procedures of the diagnostic checking step have been also carried out to verify the
adequacy of the model (6). These procedures have confirmed that the model is adequate and
the properties of the residuals are similar to those of white noise.
Fig. 7 shows the prediction results for constructed ARIMA model, where the comparison
between the observed time series and the estimated model forecasts can be easily done. As it can
be seen from Fig. 7, the separation between the "estimation interval" and the "test interval" is done
in order to distinguish between the observations, used to estimate the model parameters, and
observations, used for testing the predictive power of the model.
From Fig. 7 it is evident that the constructed ARIMA model achieves quite good prediction
results and fits well the observed time series. Naturally, there can be some deviations noticed
between the time series values and the model predictions, which can be possibly explained by the
fact that the model (6) has a relatively simple structure.

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 1921 June 2014 Celje, Slovenia

Fig. 7. The prediction results for the constructed ARIMA model

B. Evaluation of forecasting accuracy of the constructed ARIMA model

The results of accuracy measures related to the constructed ARIMA forecasting model are
shown in Table 3. Since the values of these measures are fairly low, we can conclude that the
developed ARIMA model can provide a good forecasting performance and can be treated as a
relatively reliable instrument for forecasting the container throughput in the Port of Koper.

Table 3. The accuracy performance measures of ARIMA model constructed for the forecasting of
container throughput

MAD MAPE RMSE

7,36 2,80 9,14

VI. CONCLUSION

A prototype design of ARIMA model developed for the forecasting of container throughput
time series is presented and applied for the case of Port of Koper, which is located in the North
Adriatic Sea. After the introduction of the port characteristics and its role in the European context,
the conducted methodology for the model building is briefly overviewed.
The model is constructed to predict the future throughput of 20 ft volume containers and its
development is based on the historical time series data set of 42 quarterly observations in 10 years
time period. During the design of the model, the Box-Jenkins time series modeling approach was
used, which is based on four main steps: The model identification process, the estimation of model

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 1921 June 2014 Celje, Slovenia

parameters, the diagnostic checking of the best chosen model, and finally, the use of adequate
model for forecasting.
In order to achieve the stationary time series, a first order differencing of the original time series
was needed. The derived structure of the time series ARIMA model is relatively simple and is
adequate in the sense of diagnostic checking, since the residuals properties were detected as
similar to those of white noise.
The numerical results show that the constructed model achieves quite good prediction results
and fits well the observed time series. Since the values of accuracy measures MAD, MAPE and
RMSE are fairly low, the model obviously provides a quite good forecasting performance.
Since not a lot of papers have been dedicated to the forecasting researches in North Adriatic
ports, we believe that this is one of the contributions of this study. In addition, the findings from the
results could be a useful indicator for the authorities of the Port of Koper that the ARIMA model
seems to be a reliable model for forecasting the container cargo throughput and supporting the
managerial decisions.

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The International Conference on Logistics & Sustainable Transport 2014, website: http://iclst.fl.uni-mb.si/
 1921 June 2014 Celje, Slovenia

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AUTHORS

A. Dejan Dragan, Phd, is the Assistant Professor at the Faculty of Logistics, University of Maribor,
Celje, Slovenia (e-mail: dejan.dragan@um.si).
B. Toma Kramberger, PhD, is the Assistant Professor and the Vice-Dean of the Research Program
at the Faculty of Logistics, University of Maribor, Celje, Slovenia (e-mail: tomaz.kramberger@ um.si).

Manuscript received by 1 May 2014. [1 May 2014]

Published as submitted by the author(s).

The International Conference on Logistics & Sustainable Transport 2014, website: http://iclst.fl.uni-mb.si/