Fishers Exact Test

An Example
Suppose Crane and Egret are two very small colleges, the results of
the beginning physics course at each of the two schools are given
in the table.
Physics
Count Pass Fail
Expected
Crane 8 14 22
7.6 14.4
Egret 1 3 4
1.4 2.6
9 17 26
Do the data provide sufficient evidence to indicate that the
proportions passing Physics differ for the two colleges

Ha: The proportions passing Physics differ for the two colleges.
(Crane - Egret =
/ 0)

Ho: The proportions passing Physics do not differ for the two
colleges.(Crane - Egret = 0)

Assumptions: Two independent binomial experiments were done. Since

the sample sizes are small, Fishers Exact test will be used.

Test Statistic: n11 = the number passing Physics at Crane College.

=.05 RR: P-value < .05.

Calculations: Assume the marginal totals are fixed, then determine

all possible two way tables which have those marginal totals. Use
the smallest marginal total and create the table for each ordered
pair of integers with that sum. Complete the 2x2 for each of these
ordered pairs.

Since n2. = 4 is the smallest marginal total, we look at the

following ordered pairs for (n21, n22):
(0, 4), (1, 3), (2, 2), (3, 1) and (4,0).

For each table compute the probability of that table using

9 13

0 4
 8 14

1 3

7 15

2 2

6 16

3 1

5 17

4 0

n11 P{nij}

9 .159197

8 .409365

7 .327492

6 .095518

5 .008428
____________________
Since n11 = 8, the two-tailed P-value is the sum of all
probabilities less than or equal to .409365. In this case the P-
value = 1. Hence there is not enough evidence to conclude that the
proportions passing Physics differ for the two colleges.

For a one-tailed test the P-value is found by comparing n11 to

its expected value. If n11 exceeds its expected value then the P-
value is the sum of the probabilities for all n11 > to the expected
value. If n11 is less than its expected value then the P-value is
the sum of the probabilities for all n11 < to the expected value.

Since the expected value is 7.6, the P-value is .159197 +

.409365 = .568562. Hence there is not enough evidence to indicate
that the probability of passing Physics is higher at Crane than at
Egret.