Morning Coffee with GEPL Capital

Date: August 14, 2017

Market Update Stock in News

Indices Prev. Close Abs. Change Change(%)
TCS to shut Lucknow centre, consolidate UP operations in Noida. TCS CEO Ra-
Indian Markets
jesh Gopinathan met CM Yogi Adityanath; says there won't be any retrench-
Sensex 31,214 (318) (1.0)%
ment.
Nifty 9,711 (109) (1.1)%
Hero MotoCorp to launch 3 new scooter models to take on Honda. Hero Moto-
Developed Markets
Corp to launch a new 125 cc scooter in the fourth quarter of the ongoing fiscal.
DJIA 21,858 14 0.1%

Nasdaq 5,832 43 0.7% HMSI to invest Rs 1,600 cr in FY18 to expand operations. Honda's cumulative
FTSE 7,310 (80) (1.1)% investment in country to reach about Rs 9,500 crore by fiscal-end: HMSI Senior
Emerging Markets ( as of 08:30 am) VP.
HangSeng 27,134 250 0.9% United Bank of India slips into red, posts Rs 211 cr Q1 loss on rising NPAs. Bank's
Nikkei 19,565 (165) (0.8)%
bad loan proportion rose substantially as gross NPAs rose to 17%.
SGX Nifty 9,781 55 0.6%
Reliance Comm posts consolidated loss of Rs 1,210 cr in June quarter. The com-
BSE Sectoral Prev. Close Abs. Change Change(%) pany attributed a loss of Rs 1,221 crore to equity holders of the company.
Indices
Auto 23,287 (356) (1.5)% JK Cement Q1 profit up 30% at Rs 79 cr on higher revenue. Its net profit in the
Banks 27,098 242) (0.9)% April-June period of last fiscal was Rs 60.85 crore.
Capital Goods 16,927 (206) (1.2)%
Loss to profit: Hindustan Copper Q1 net at Rs 10 cr. Its total expenses were
Comm & Teck 5,773 (16) (0.3)%
Con. Durables 17,136 57 0.3% higher at Rs 407 cr as against Rs 236 cr in June quarter last financial year.
FMCG 9783 (68) (0.7)%
Healthcare 12779 29 0.2%
IT 10278 (9) (0.1)% Economic News
Metals 12,280 (463) (3.6)%
Oil & Gas 14,372 (12) (0.1)% Electric car giant Tesla unlikely to open base at JNPT SEZ: Nitin Gadkari. Ac-
Power 2,211 (13) (0.6)% cording to reports, JNPT was pitching to get Tesla open a manufacturing facil-
Realty 1,961 (26) (1.3)%
ity.
By Prev. Close Abs. Change Change(%)
Capitalisation No plans for duty-free sugar imports, sufficient stock available: Paswan. Sugar-
Midcap 14,726 (30) (0.2)%
cane production in the next season looked good owing to favourable weather
Smallcap 15,036 (35) (0.2)%
conditions: Paswan.
GST tax slabs to be reduced after revenue improves: Arjun Kumar Meghwal.
Fund Flows With the exempted category, the existing tax slabs are of 5, 12, 18 and 28%.
( Rs in crore) Latest MTD YTD Nitin Gadkari to kick off Rs 260 cr project to decongest Delhi. Ministry of De-
Flls (1943.8) (3917.7) (13292.3) fence has agreed to transfer 13 acres to National Highways Authority.
MFs 2016.8 6283.9 31123.4

Global News
Donald Trump may order investigation into China's trade practices. This has
triggered concerns that Washington may take unilateral moves harming China-
US trade.
India can help resolve North Korea crisis, says US Pacific commander. Tensions
have risen since North Korea tested two intercontinental ballistic missiles in
July.

Source: BS = Business Standard, ToI: Times of India, MC = Money Control, B = Bloomberg

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Technical Snapshot

Name Previous Close Reversal Support 2 Support 1 Pivot Point Resistance 1 Resistance 2

NIFTY Near Month 9737.60 10057.58 9659.33 9989.00 9749.23 9788.37 9839.13

BNIFTY Near Month 24080.00 24880.45 23381.17 23730.58 24305.52 24654.93 25229.87

NIFTY Midcap 100 17360.75 18386.58 16836.68 17098.72 17318.18 17580.22 17799.68

NIFTY Smallcap 100 7166.25 7687.42 6822.05 6994.15 7110.60 7282.70 7399.15

Key Highlights:
NIFTY looses by a CENTURY as it RUSHES down below 9700 momentarily, before closing above the mark. Fibonacci retrace-
ment of 9711 comes to the rescue ..

The NIFTY opened @ 9712.15, Gap-DOWN by over 108 points over Thursday. The nervousness seemed to be the order all through the day, as NIFTY showed a complete RED day on the back of
BEARISH cues from all across the globe. Yet NIFTY showed some resilience in the first half, as it was able to claw back to the 9750 mark by noon. However the exuberance was short lived, as NIFTY
once again broke through & this time around cracked below the 9700 mark (LOW 9685.85) The BULLS clawed back from lower levels towards the end, as NIFTY closed DOWN by 109.45 points or
1.11% @ 9710.80.

The broader indices, clawed back from oversold levels, and hence outperformed the benchmark NIFTY by a slender margin, although they still closed in the RED. While the NIFTY MID100 FREE
closed DOWN by 0.58% to close @ 17360.75; the NIFTY SML100 FREE closed DOWN by just 0.04% to close @ 7166.25. The broader move clearly tilted in favor of the BEARS with 748 advances to
1011 declines, yet much better as compared to Thursday. The INDIA VIX shot UP through the roof, this time around 10.6%, to close around the 15.2 mark(An upmove of around 50% spanning previ-
ous 3 weeks).

Once again, almost all the sectoral & thematic indices traded in the RED, the only exception being NIFTY PHARMA, which were just able to hold to its own thanks to dead cat bounce. On the
other side, the NIFTY PSU BANKS & NIFTY METALS were beaten down BLACK & BLUE, as they shaved off more than 3% a piece.

The current correction we are seeing is very WELCOME, and we stand by it. For the fourth consecutive session, Index ended in deep red forming a bearish candle stick pattern as follow-
up to the 'Three Black Crows'. Index has now retraced almost 61.8% of its recent up move (9448 - 10137) and has closed below the super trend which previously acted as strong support
for three times in past three months. Technically, going with the current bearish momentum and as per retracement levels, Index can further slide towards 9650 - 9560 levels in next
few weeks. Any bounce back towards the bearish gap around 9890 - 9900 level will now act as a supply zone with intermediate resistance coming through at Thursday's low @9776
coinciding with 50 SMA.

Stocks to Watch Sector view for the day:

BULLISH BEARISH Bullish Sectors Bearish Sectors
PHARMA PSU BANK
ENDURANCE STAR
IT METAL
BRITANNIA SBIN

IGL TVSMOTOR
Stocks view for the day:
Stock View Duration CMP Support Resistance
M&MFIN PFC
IGL BULLISH INTRADAY 1233 1218 1254
TATAGLOBAL UBL
TVSMOTOR BEARISH INTRADAY 537 523 545

GEPL Capital Pvt Ltd

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August 14, 2017

Derivatives Snapshot
Nifty Spot Nifty Fu- Nifty Futures Nifty Futures Nifty Futures Nifty Futures Nifty Futures Highest Total OI Highest Total Nifty OI NSE VIX
tures Prem. / Disc Basis OI Change in OI Volume ( in cr.) Call Strike OI Put Strike PCR

Current 9710.80 9741.05 30.25 31.25 23310075 778125 1.30 10000 9500 0.85 15.20
Previous 9820.25 9854.75 34.50 31.15 22531950 (736050) 1.06 10100 9800 0.86 13.81
Change (109.45) (113.70) (4.25) - - - - - - - 1.39
% Chg (1.11) (1.15) - - - - - - - - 10.80

Snapshot:
Nifty August Futures ended @ 9741.05 down by 113.70 points with premium of 30.25 points.
Nifty futures open interest increased by 7.78 lakh shares with August series total open interest stands at 2.33 crore shares.
Nifty 10000 call has highest OI, whereas 9500 put holds the highest OI indicating 10100 to 9650 range for the week ahead and BankNifty
25000 call has highest OI and 24500 put has highest OI indicating 25000 to 23200 range for the week ahead.
Nifty 9800 call saw addition of 17.99 lakh shares in OI, whereas 9900 put saw unwinding of 12.77 lakh shares in OI.
India VIX ended 10.80% up @ 15.20 against previous close of 13.81.

FII Derivatives Statistics Securities in Ban for Trade

Buy Sell Net Buy / Sell Aug Cumulative Sr. No. Stock Name Sr. No. Stock Name
(Rs. in Cr.) (Rs. in Cr.) (Rs. in Cr.) (Rs. in Cr.)

INDEX FUTURES 2347.05 3754.63 (1407.58) (3916) 1 DLF 5 -

INDEX OPTIONS 68353.32 67824.40 528.92 5871 2 FORTIS 6 -
STOCK FUTURES 12192.61 12280.77 (88.16) (89) 3 IBREALEST 7 -
STOCK OPTIONS 11549.91 11689.76 (139.85) 774 4 JISLJALEQS 8 -

Open Interest Summary Y Axis

Short Build Up (- +) Long Build Up (+ +)

Stock Price % OI % Stock Price % OI %
TVSMOTOR (8.17) 17.64 IGL 1.09 16.17
BERGERPAINT (3.51) 16.71 CGPOWER 7.28 12.85
SBIN (5.53) 14.04 CADILAHC 3.45 12.73
PVR (3.50) 10.31 HDIL 3.89 9.64
MCDOWELL-N (2.35) 6.41 HINDPETRO 3.76 2.60

X Axis
0
Long Unwinding (- -) Short Covering (+ -)
Stock Price % OI % Stock Price % OI %

DLF (5.68) (8.01) NBCC 2.77 (11.36)

NMDC (3.49) (7.92) SRF 1.41 (10.91)
UBL (4.84) (7.67) CHENNPETRO 1.62 (10.83)
BANKINDIA (3.33) (6.57) SINTEX 4.79 (10.76)
CIPLA (0.95) (6.14) NIITTECH 1.24 (9.57)

Long Build Up: When price of a particular stock/Index future rises along with the rise in Open Interest.
Short Build Up: When Price of a particular stock/Index future falls with the rise in Open Interest.
Short Covering: When price of a particular stock/Index future rises with the fall in Open Interest.
Long Unwinding: When price of a particular stock/Index future falls along with the fall in Open Interest.

GEPL Capital Pvt Ltd

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August 14, 2017

Equity Technical Recommendation:

Target Target
Sr. Date Action Company Product * Reco. Price Stop Loss Time Frame Segment Remarks
01 02
No.

1 11-08-2017 BUY BHARATFORG STW 1171 1136 1193 1230 Five Day Cash Open

Target Achieved @
2 08-08-2017 SELL NIFTY AUG FUT 5 DAY 9995 - 9920 9835 Five Day Cash / F&O
9760

2 08-08-2017 BUY NIFTY 9850 AUG CE 5 DAY 101 - - - Five Day Cash / F&O -

Click here for our Last months Technical Recommendation:

* Product Profile (Description)

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Fundamental Recommendation:

Current Calls: Value Picks

Time Return since

Sr. No Date Action Company Product * CMP Reco. Price Target Remarks
Frame Inception

754
1 17-Feb-16 BUY MINDA IND VALUE PICK 150 295 3 YEARS 407% CLOSE

2 17-Jun-15 BUY TATA ELXSI VALUE PICK 1,606 1,117 2,167 3 YEARS 47% CLOSE

3 17-Jun-15 BUY KOVAI MEDICAL VALUE PICK 1,297 560 1,118 3 YEARS 139% CLOSE

4 17-Jun-15 BUY EICHER MOTORS VALUE PICK 29,616 19,297 36,957 3 YEARS 57% OPEN

5 17-Jun-15 BUY WABCO INDIA VALUE PICK 5,371 5,406 10,474 3 YEARS 0% OPEN

6 17-Jun-15 BUY REPRO INDIA VALUE PICK 477 452 926 3 YEARS 8% OPEN

7 17-Jun-15 BUY KAJARIA CERA VALUE PICK 623 380 665 3 YEARS 65% CLOSE

8 17-Jun-15 BUY BASF INDIA VALUE PICK 1,393 1,091 2,079 3 YEARS 29% OPEN

9 17-Jun-15 BUY GULF OIL LUBRIC VALUE PICK 811 442 802 3 YEARS 82% OPEN

10 17-Jun-15 BUY UNITED SPIRITS VALUE PICK 2,419 3,465 6,854 3 YEARS -28% OPEN

Average Returns 81%

For entire fundamental list please click here

GEPL Capital Pvt Ltd

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Fundamental Recommendation:

Current Calls: Fundamental

Time Return since

Sr. No Date Action Company Product * CMP Reco. Price Target Remarks
Frame Inception

1 7-Jul-17 BUY PPAP Automotive Ltd. IC REPORT 365 503 12-24 Mnths -8% Open
323
2 22-Jun-17 BUY VIP INDUSTRIES LTD. IC REPORT 196 250 12-24 Mnths -5% Open
189
3 02-Jun -17 BUY FINEOTEX CHEMICAL LTD SALES NOTE 35 42 8-12 Mnths -19% Open
28

4 12-May-17 BUY MAHINDRA CIE SALES NOTE 241 297 8-12 Mnths -2% Open
231

5 19-Oct-16 BUY ALEMBIC PHARMA SALES NOTE 674 808 8-12 Mnths -22% Open
515

6 01-Oct-16 BUY THE BYKE IC REPORT 180 231 12-24 Mnths 6% Open
191

7 22-Sep-16 BUY TAKE SOLN IC REPORT 164 201 12-24 Mnths -8% Open
139

8 18-Aug-16 BUY MINDA CORP SALES NOTE 113 133 8-12 Mnths -8% Open
103

9 30-Oct-15 BUY ZENSAR TECH. IC REPORT 886.2 1161 12-24 Mnths -9% Open
793

10 11-Nov-16 BUY RAMKRISHNA FORG. SALES NOTE 706 855 8-12 Mnths -25% Open
526

Average Returns -10%

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 Morning Coffee with GEPL Capital
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Debt Market Snapshot Government Security Market:

The Inter-bank call money rate traded in the range of 4.90%
Forex Rates Prev. Close Abs. Change Change(%)
6.97% on Friday ended at 5.85%.
USD/INR 64.09 0.06 0.09
Total Borrowings From RBI's Repo with banks taking Rs. 22800 mn
EUR/INR 75.09 0.38 0.51
on Friday Vs. Rs. 23550 mn on Thursday .
GBP/INR 83.26 0.02 0.03
The benchmark 6.79% GOI 2027 closed at 6.5024% on Friday Vs
JPY/INR 58.34 0.43 0.73 6.4946% on Thursday.

Particulars Latest Previous Chg (bps)

Global Debt Market:
5 Year GOI Bond 6.49% 6.48% (0.01)
Long-end of the Treasury curve lags after soft CPI data caused sharp
10 Year GOI Bond 6.50% 6.49% (0.01)
steepening move, which held into the close; upside advance across
15-Year GOI Bond 6.98% 6.93% (0.05) intermediates partially capped ahead of IG issuance outlook for next
Call Money (WAR) 5.85% 5.86% 0.01 week.

CBLO (WAR) 5.89% 5.94% 0.0

US 10 Year 2.20% 2.25% 0.05 10 Year Benchmark Technical View:

10 year (6.79% GOI 2027) yield likely to move in the range of 6.48% to
Crude Oil (in $/bl) 48.59 49.56 0.97
6.52% level on Monday.
Inflation (Monthly CPI) 1.54 2.18 0.64

Highly Traded Govt. Bonds (Top 5) Bonds in Secondary Market:

Security Volume High Low LTP Bonds Coupon Maturity Face Value
7.22 REC 2022 ( Tax Free) 7.22 19/12/22 1000

6.79% GS 2029 15735 102.1850 101.91 102.04

6.79% GS 2027 9645 100.0475 99.84 99.94

7.72% GS 2025 650 105.49 105.43 105.4550

7.68% GS 2023 6.20 105.37 105.28 105.36

7.16% GS 2023 560 102.3950 102.35 102.3925

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Research Team:

Name Designation Email Id Contact

Omkar Tanksale Sr. Analyst - Fundamental Research omkar@geplcapital.com 022 - 6614 2692

Pushkaraj Kanitkar AVP - Technical Research pushkaraj@geplcapital.com 022 - 6614 2686

Vidnyan Sawant Sr. Analyst - Technical Research vidnyan@geplcapital.com 022 - 6614 2687
Ram Chotwani Technical & Derivatives Analyst ram@geplcapital.com 022 - 6614 2683
Deepak Panjwani VP - Debt Market deepak@geplcapital.com 022 - 6614 2352

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