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EconomicForecastsfromtheWorld'sLeadingEconomists
U.S.EconomicOutlook
June28,2016
TheU.S.economyhasbeeningoodshapeoverallinthesecondquarterfollowingtheslowdowninQ1.ConsumerspendingthemainengineoftheeconomylikelyremainedstronginQ2asretailsales
expandedforasecondconsecutivemonthinMay.Inaddition,anincreaseintheISMmanufacturingindexwaspositivenewsinMay,althoughtheindicatorstillsuggestssoftgrowthinthesector.Meanwhile,the
MayjobsreporttookcenterstageasnonfarmpayrollsgrewattheweakestpacesinceSeptember2010.On8June,HillaryClinton,formerfirstlady,secretaryofstateandsenatorforNewYork,becamethe
DemocraticParty'spresumptivenomineeforthe2016presidentialelection.ClintonwillrunagainsttheRepublicans'choiceofrealestatemogulandtelevisionpersonality,DonaldTrump,inanunusualbattleto
leadthecountry.Americanvotersaredividedandmanyarefacedwithatoughdecisionastheymustchoosebetweenonecandidatewho,formany,isassociatedwithsupportingthedysfunctionalWashington
statusquo,whilemanyothersbelieveavoteforTrumpisequivalenttotakingadiveintotheunknown.
UnitedStatesEconomyData
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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DomesticDemand(annualvariationin%) 1.6 2.1 1.3 2.5 3.0
SampleReport
5yearsofUnitedStateseconomicforecastsformorethan30economicindicators.
UnitedStatesEconomyOverview
EconomicOverviewoftheUnitedStates
Despitefacingchallengesatthedomesticlevelalongwitharapidlytransforminggloballandscape,theU.S.economyisstillthelargestandmostimportantintheworld.TheU.S.economyrepresentsabout20%
oftotalglobaloutput,andisstilllargerthanthatofChina.Moreover,accordingtotheIMF,theU.S.hasthesixthhighestpercapitaGDP(PPP),surpassedonlybysmallcountriessuchasNorwayand
Singapore.TheU.S.economyfeaturesahighlydevelopedandtechnologicallyadvancedservicessector,whichaccountsforabout80%ofitsoutput.TheU.S.economyisdominatedbyservicesoriented
companiesinareassuchastechnology,financialservices,healthcareandretail.LargeU.S.corporationsalsoplayamajorroleontheglobalstage,withmorethanafifthofcompaniesontheFortuneGlobal
500comingfromtheUnitedStates.
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Eventhoughtheservicessectoristhemainengineoftheeconomy,theU.S.alsohasanimportantmanufacturingbase,whichrepresentsroughly15%ofoutput.TheU.S.isthesecondlargestmanufacturerin
theworldandaleaderinhighervalueindustriessuchasautomobiles,aerospace,machinery,telecommunicationsandchemicals.Meanwhile,agriculturerepresentslessthan2%ofoutput.However,large
amountsofarableland,advancedfarmingtechnologyandgenerousgovernmentsubsidiesmaketheU.S.anetexporteroffoodandthelargestagriculturalexportingcountryintheworld.
TheU.S.economymaintainsitspowerhousestatusthroughacombinationofcharacteristics.Thecountryhasaccesstoabundantnaturalresourcesandasophisticatedphysicalinfrastructure.Italsohasa
large,welleducatedandproductiveworkforce.Moreover,thephysicalandhumancapitalisfullyleveragedinafreemarketandbusinessorientedenvironment.ThegovernmentandthepeopleoftheUnited
Statesbothcontributetothisuniqueeconomicenvironment.Thegovernmentprovidespoliticalstability,afunctionallegalsystem,andaregulatorystructurethatallowtheeconomytoflourish.Thegeneral
population,includingadiversityofimmigrants,bringsasolidworkethic,aswellasasenseofentrepreneurshipandrisktakingtothemix.EconomicgrowthintheUnitedStatesisconstantlybeingdrivenforward
byongoinginnovation,researchanddevelopmentaswellascapitalinvestment.
TheU.S.economyiscurrentlyemergingfromaperiodofconsiderableturmoil.Amixoffactors,includinglowinterestrates,widespreadmortgagelending,excessiverisktakinginthefinancialsector,high
consumerindebtednessandlaxgovernmentregulation,ledtoamajorrecessionthatbeganin2007.Thehousingmarketandseveralmajorbankscollapsedin2008andtheU.S.economyproceededto
contractuntilthethirdquarterof2009inwhatwasthedeepestandlongestdownturnsincetheGreatDepression.TheU.S.governmentintervenedbyusingUSD700billiontopurchasetroubledmortgage
relatedassetsandproppinguplargeflounderingcorporationsinordertostabilizethefinancialsystem.ItalsointroducedastimuluspackageworthUSD831billiontobespentacrossthefollowing10yearsto
boosttheeconomy.
Theeconomyhasbeenrecoveringslowlyyetunevenlysincethedepthsoftherecessionin2009.Theeconomyhasreceivedfurthersupportthroughexpansionarymonetarypolicies.Thisincludesnotonly
holdinginterestratesatthelowerbound,butalsotheunconventionalpracticeofthegovernmentbuyinghugeamountsoffinancialassetstoincreasethemoneysupplyandholddownlongterminterestrates
apracticeknownasquantitativeeasing.
Whilethelabormarkethasrecoveredsignificantlyandemploymenthasreturnedtoprecrisislevels,thereisstillwidespreaddebateregardingthehealthoftheU.S.economy.Inaddition,eventhoughtheworst
effectsoftherecessionarenowfading,theeconomystillfacesavarietyofsignificantchallengesgoingforward.Deterioratinginfrastructure,wagestagnation,risingincomeinequality,elevatedpensionand
medicalcosts,aswellaslargecurrentaccountandgovernmentbudgetdeficits,areallissuesontheradar.
U.S.EconomicHistory
TheendofWorldWarIImarkedthebeginningofagoldenerafortheU.Seconomy.Thisperiodwasmarkedbyasurgeineconomicactivityandproductivity,agrowingandmoreprosperousmiddleclass,and
theriseofthebabyboomergeneration.Fromthelate1940stotheearly1970s,U.S.GDPgrewatanaverageannualrateofnearly4%.Bythe1970s,thestructuralchangeintheeconomyawayfromindustry
andmanufacturingtoserviceswasinfullforce.However,afterseveraldecadesofunprecedentedgrowth,theeconomybegantoshowsignsofslowingandaseriesofevents,includingthecollapseofthe
BrettonWoodssystem,the1973oilcrisisandincreasedglobalcompetition,precipitatedimportanteconomicchanges.The1970sweremarkedbyaperiodofstagnatinggrowthandinflationreferredtoas
stagflation.
The1980sgaverisetoReaganomics,aseriesofeconomicpoliciespromotedbyPresidentRonaldReagan.Themainobjectiveswerereducedgovernmentspendingandregulation,aswellaslowertaxesand
atightermoneysupply.Reganwashighlysuccessfulinoverhaulingthetaxcodeandpushingaheadwithderegulationinseveralmajorsectorsoftheeconomyandwhilegrowthandproductivityincreased,the
governmentsdebtmultipliedsignificantly.Inabroadersense,ReaganomicsmarkedaturntowardfreemarketsupplysideeconomicsandawayfromtheKeynsianinspiredeconomicsthathadbeenfavored
sincetheGreatDepression.
Increasingglobalintegrationandtheriseofnewtechnology,includingtheadoptionofproductivityenhancingITintheworkplaceandthesurgeofhightechcompanies,helpedfuelaneconomicboominthe
1990s.Theperiodbetween1993and2001markedthelongestsustainedexpansioninU.Seconomichistory,andpoweredasteepriseinemployment,incomeandconsumerdemand.
Moreover,thestronggrowthandlowunemploymentduringthistimewereparticularlyremarkablebecausethegovernmentbudgetwasreignedinsimultaneouslyandactuallyachievedasurplusforfouryears
between1998and2001.ThefiscalimprovementwasmadepossibleinpartbytaxincreasesintroducedbyPresidentBillClinton,butalsothankstotheboomingeconomyandsurgingstockmarket.Thestock
marketwasdrivenupbytheriseofinternetbasedcompaniesinwhatisknownasthedotcombubble,whichgeneratedvastsumsofunanticipatedrevenueforthegovernmentoncapitalgainstaxesand
risingsalaries.However,theovervaluationofdotcomstockseventuallybecameapparentandthebubbleburstin2000.
Thefirstyearsofthe2000ssawasharpdropineconomyactivityfollowingthedotcomburst.TheterroristattacksonSeptember11,2001,andseveralcorporatescandalsputafurtherdamperoneconomic
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activityandbusinessconfidence.TheFederalReserve(theFed),underAlanGreenspan,steppedintocounteractthestrugglingeconomybyintroducinglowinterestrates.Thismovewouldlaterbeconsidered
amajorfactorincausingthemassivehousingmarketbubblethatburstandprecipitatedtheGreatRecessionthatbeganin2008.
UnitedStatesBalanceofpayments
Overthepastseveraldecades,theU.S.currentaccountbalancehasbeenheavilyinfluencedbyinternationaltradeflows,withtheongoingtradedeficitresultinginaconsistentcurrentaccountdeficit.Earnings
onU.S.assetsandinvestmentsownedabroadhaveaverysmallpartinthecurrentaccount,andasurplusinthiscategoryisnotnearlyenoughtooffsetthelargetradedeficit.Overall,thecurrentaccount
deficitimpliesthatthevalueofthegoodsandservicesbeingpurchasedfromabroadbytheUnitedStatesexceedsthevalueofthegoodsandservicesbeingsoldtoforeigners.TheU.S.currentaccountdeficit
widenedprogressivelysincethe1990sandreachedanalltimerecordandglobalhighof5.8%ofGDPin2006.Thedeficitnarrowedinthefollowingyearsandreached2.4%in2013.Theimprovementhas
beendriveninlargepartbyincreaseddomesticoilproduction.
Thecurrentaccountdeficitismirroredbyacapitalaccountsurplus.ThenetamountofcapitalinflowsreceivedintheUnitedStatesfromabroadmakesitpossibletofinancethecurrentaccountdeficit.
ForeignerscontinuetoinvestinU.S.assetsandcompanies,andsothenetinternationalinvestmentpositionoftheUnitedStateshasgrownovertime.TheUnitedStatesisbyfarthetoprecipientofforeign
directinvestment(FDI).TheU.S.economyreceivedUSD166billioninFDIin2012,pushingthecumulativestocktoUSD2.7trillion.About80%ofFDIintheUnitedStatescomesfromasetofjustnine
industrializedcountries.TheUK,JapanandtheNetherlandsarethetopsourcesofFDIintheU.S.TheU.S.manufacturingsectordrawsabout40%ofFDI.
UnitedStatesTradeStructure
TheU.S.isthe2ndleadingexporterofgoodsandservicesintheworldandthenumberoneleadingimporter.TheU.S.consistentlyrunsatradedeficit,mainlyduetothedependenceonforeignoiltomeetits
energyneedsandhighdomesticdemandforconsumergoodsproducedabroad.In2013,theUnitedStatesrecordedaUSD702billiondeficitintradeofgoods,includingaUSD232billiondeficitinpetroleum
products.Meanwhile,theU.S.hadaUSD231billionsurplusintradeofservices.ThemaintradingpartnersoftheU.S.areCanada,China,MexicoandJapan.CanadaisthemaindestinationforU.S.exports,
whereasChinaisthemainsourceofimports.ThetradedeficitwithChinahitarecordhighUSD318billionin2013.
TheU.S.playsamajorroleintheinternationaltradesystemandisgenerallyseenasaproponentofreducedtradebarriersandfreetradeagreements.TheUnitedStatescurrentlyhasmorethanadozenfree
tradeagreementsinplace.AmongthemaretheNorthAmericanFreeTradeAgreement(NAFTA),whichwascreatedinconjunctionwithCanadaandMexicoin1994.In2011,theUnitedStatessignedfree
tradeagreementswithPanama,Colombia,andSouthKorea.TheUnitedStatesisalsoanactivememberoftheWorldTradeOrganization(WTO).
ExportsfromtheUnitedStates
AlthoughtheUnitedStateshaslostsomeofitscompetitiveedgeinrecentdecades,materialgoodsstillrepresenttwothirdsofitstotalexports.TheUnitedStatesmainlyexportshighvaluecapitalgoodsand
manufacturedproducts,includingindustrialmachinery,airplanes,motorvehiclesandchemicals.In2013,theU.S.exportedUSD1.579trillioningoods.
TheUnitedStatesistheworldsleadingexporterofservices.Thisincludesfinancialandprofessionalbusinessservicesaswellasotherknowledgeintensiveservices.Travel,transportationandtourismservices
arealsoamajorexport.TheUnitedStatesexportedarecordhighUSD682billionofservicesin2013,whichrepresentedaboutonethirdofitsexports.
ImportstotheUnitedStates
About80%oftotalimportsbroughttotheUnitedStatesfromabroadaregoods.Roughly15%oftheseimportsareintheformcrudeoil,fueloilandpetroleumproducts.Industrialmachinery,suppliesand
equipmentrepresentanother15%ofimportedgoods.Almost25%ofimportedgoodsarecapitalgoods,suchascomputers,computeraccessories,electronics,medicalequipment,andtelecommunications
equipment.Consumergoodsrepresentanother25%ofimportedgoods.Cellphones,pharmaceuticals,toys,householdequipment,textiles,apparel,televisions,andfootweararethemaintypesofconsumer
goodsimportedtotheUnitedStates.Anadditional15%ofimportedgoodsareautomotivevehicles,parts,andengines.Foodandbeveragesrepresentonlyabout5%ofimportedgoods.Servicesrepresent
only20%oftotalimports,andareprimarilyfinancialservices,aswellastravelandtransportation.
UnitedStatesEconomicPolicy
TheU.S.governmenthasfacedthemomentoustaskofreversingtheeffectsoftherecessionwithacombinationofexpansionaryfiscalandmonetarypolicy.Onthefiscalside,governmentstimulusspending
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andtaxcutspreventedfurtherdeteriorationoftheeconomy.Onthemonetaryside,theFederalReservehastackledeconomicweaknesswithbothtraditionalandunconventionalpolicies.
TheUnitedStatesistypicallyregardedasthehomeoffreemarketeconomicpolicies.However,theU.S.governmentexercisesasignificantamountofregulationovereconomic,commercialandfinancial
activities.Followingtherecession,thegovernmentsteppedupitsoversightinthefinancialsector.TheDoddFrankact,passedin2010,representsthemostcomprehensivereformoffinancialmarkets
regulationsincetheGreatDepression.
UnitedStatesFiscalPolicy
TheU.S.governmenttendstospendmoremoneythanittakesin,andthushasincurredfiscaldeficitsalmostuninterruptedlyduringthepastseveraldecades.Theonlytimewhenthegovernmentmanagedto
balanceabudgetinrecenthistorywasbetween1998and2001,whenthestrongeconomyresultedinhigherthanusualtaxrevenues.Thefiscaldeficitreachedthehighestpointsince1945in2009at9.8%of
GDP,buthasimprovedprogressivelysincethenthedeficitdroppedto4.0%ofGDPin2013.
Thelargestportionofgovernmentspendingismandatedbyexistinglaws,withalargeamountoffundsallocatedtoentitlementprogramssuchasSocialSecurityandMedicaid.Mandatoryspendingrepresents
nearly60%oftotalgovernmentspending.Theremainderisreferredtoasdiscretionaryspending,andisdeterminedbytheannualfederalbudget.Abouthalfofthediscretionarybudgetisspentonthemilitary
anddefense,withtheotherhalfspentongovernmentprogramsandpublicservices.
Nearly50%oftaxobtainedbytheU.S.governmentcomesfromincometaxesonindividuals,withanadditional10%comingfromincometaxesonbusinessesandcorporations.Another35%ofcollectionscome
frompayrollandsocialsecuritytaxes.Excisetaxeschargedongoodssuchasliquor,tobaccoandgasolinebringinasmalleramount.Taxrevenuesequaledabout18%ofGDPonaveragebetween1970and
2010.
ThestimuluspackageintroducedbytheObamaadministrationin2009includedUSD288billionintaxcutsandincentives.Lessthantwoyearslater,Obamaannouncedanextensiontothetaxcutsthathad
beenintroducedduringtheBushadministrationatacostofmorethanUSD400billionovertwoyears.
UnitedStatesMonetaryPolicy
TheU.S.CongresshasestablishedthatthemonetarypolicyobjectivesoftheFederalReservearetopromotemaximumemploymentandpricestabilityinwhatisknownasthedualmandate.TheFederal
OpenMarketCommittee(FOMC)istheFed'smonetarypolicymakingbody.TheFOMCmeetsabouteighttimesayeartodiscussdevelopmentsandtheoutlookfortheU.S.economyandtodebatedifferent
policyoptions,includingthelevelofinterestrates.Thefederalfundsrate,themaininterestratemanagedbytheFed,istheratewhichdepositbankschargeeachothertotradefundsovernightinorderto
maintainreservebalancerequirements.ThefederalfundsrateisoneofthemostimportantintheU.S.economybecauseitinfluencesallothershortterminterestrates.
Duringtheyearssincetherecessionhit,theFedhasbeenveryactive.TheFedhasmaintainedapolicyofkeepingthefederalfundsratenearzero.Interestrateswereinitiallysupposedtobekeptlowonlyuntil
theunemploymentratedroppedto6.5%orinflationsurpassed2.5%.However,thisspecificforwardguidancewasrevampedinMarch2014whentheFedannouncedthatanyfuturedecisionstohikeinterest
ratesnolongerdependedonpreviouslyestablishedquantitativethresholds,butratherontheassessmentofabroadrangeofmorequalitativeinformation.Inanadditionalresponsetocountertheeffectsofthe
recession,inDecember2012,theFedannouncedanunconventionalpolicyknownasquantitativeeasing.Thispolicyinvolvesthepurchaseofvastsumsoffinancialassetsinanattempttoincreasethemoney
supplyandholddownlongterminterestrates.
UnitedStatesExchangeRatePolicy
TheU.S.dollarisoftenreferredtoastheworldscurrencybecauseitisbyfarthemostusedcurrencyininternationaltransactionsandalsothemostwidelyheldreservecurrency.Almosttwothirdsofcurrency
reservesheldthroughouttheworldareinU.S.dollars.
AlthoughtheTreasuryDepartmenthastheprimaryauthoritytooverseeinternationalfinancialissues,theTreasurysdecisionsregardingforeignexchangearemadeinconsultationwiththeFederalReserve.
However,U.S.interventionintheforeignexchangemarkethasbecomeincreasinglylessfrequent.U.S.authoritiestypicallylettheopenforeignexchangemarketanddomesticmonetarypoliciesdetermine
rates.
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UnitedStatesFacts
Value Change Date
UnitedStatesEconomicGrowth
June28,2016
TheUKsvotetoleavetheEUhassentshockwavesthroughoutglobalfinancialmarketsandhasthepotentialtocauseameaningfulshocktoEurope.TheU.S.economyisnotimmunetoeconomicslowdowns
intheUKandtheEurozone,andtherecentdevelopmentsregardingtheUKsexitfromtheEUarecastingashadowontheU.S.outlook.FocusEconomicspanelistsexpectGDPtoincrease1.9%in2016,
whichisunchangedfromlastmonthsforecast.For2017,thepanelseesGDPgrowthat2.2%.
UpcomingEvents
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UnitedStatesEconomicNews
UnitedStates:RetailsalesjumpupinJune
July15,2016
Nominalretailsalesincreased0.6%inJuneoverthepreviousmonth.
UnitedStates:InflationstabilizesinJune
July15,2016
Seasonallyadjustedconsumerpricesrose0.2%inJuneoverthepreviousmonthandmirroredtheresultobservedinMay.
UnitedStates:Junejobsreportcalmsmarketjitters
July8,2016
Markets,andlikelytheFederalReserve,breathedasighofreliefaftertheJunejobsreportshowedastrongincreaseinemploymentandthuseasedconcernsthattheU.S.economymighthaveloststeam.
UnitedStates:U.S.manufacturingsectorgainsmoremomentuminJune
July1,2016
AnincreaseintheISMmanufacturingindexinJunewasapositivesurpriseandsignalsagaininmomentumintheU.S.manufacturingsector.
UnitedStates:ConsumerconfidencereboundsandjumpstoeightmonthhighinJune
June28,2016
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TheConferenceBoardsconsumerconfidenceindicatorjumpedfrom92.4inMayto98.0inJuneandbeatthe93.5themarketshadexpected.
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