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The problem of inferring causal relations from observed correlations is relevant to a wide variety of scientific disciplines.
Yet given the correlations between just two classical variables, it is impossible to determine whether they arose from a causal
influence of one on the other or a common cause influencing both. Only a randomized trial can settle the issue. Here we consider
the problem of causal inference for quantum variables. We show that the analogue of a randomized trial, causal tomography,
yields a complete solution. We also show that, in contrast to the classical case, one can sometimes infer the causal structure
from observations alone. We implement a quantum-optical experiment wherein we control the causal relation between two
optical modes, and two measurement schemeswith and without randomizationthat extract this relation from the observed
correlations. Our results show that entanglement and quantum coherence provide an advantage for causal inference.
T
he slogan correlation does not imply causation is meant to holds. Despite the restrictions that quantum theory places on
capture the fact that any joint probability distribution over learning about systemsthat not all observables that can be defined
two variables can be explained not only by a causal influence of a system can be measured precisely at the same timewe
of one variable on the other, but also by a common cause acting show that the ability to intervene on the early quantum system
on both1 . We here investigate whether a similar ambiguity holds for allows a complete solution of the problem. This constitutes a
quantum systems, and we show that, surprisingly, it does not. new type of tomography, which subsumes tomography of bipartite
Finding causal explanations of observed correlations is a states and tomography of processes, and promises applications
fundamental problem in science, with applications ranging from for determining whether the state evolution implemented by
medicine and genetics to economics2,3 . As a practical illustration, a given device is Markovian. We implement this new type of
consider a drug trial. Naively, a correlation between the variables tomography experimentally and obtain a complete description of
treatment and recovery may suggest a causal influence of the former the causal structure.
on the latter. But suppose men are more likely than women to seek The real surprise, however, is that even if one only has the
treatment, and also more likely to recover spontaneously, regardless ability to observe the early system, the quantum correlations hold
of treatment. In this case, gender is a common cause, inducing signatures of the causal structurein other words, certain types
correlations between treatment and recovery even if there is no of correlation do imply causation. In a recent paper, Fitzsimons,
causeeffect relation between them. Jones and Vedral5 defined a function of the observed correlations
Unless one can make strong assumptions about the nature of which acts as a witness of causal influence, by ruling out a purely
the causal mechanisms4 , the only way to distinguish between the common-cause explanation. We here present a larger framework
two possibilities is to replace observation of the early variable with that places this result on an equal footing with an analogous result
an intervention on it. For instance, pharmaceutical companies do for witnessing common-cause relations. We exploit these facts to
not leave the choice of treatment to the subjects of their trials, but devise, for a particular class of causal scenarios, a complete solution
carefully randomize the assignment of drug or placebo. This ensures of the causal inference problem using observation alonea task
that the administered treatment is statistically independent of any that is impossible classically. We implement a family of such causal
potential common causes with recovery. Consequently, any correla- scenarios experimentally and confirm our conclusion.
tions with recovery that persist herald a directed causal influence.
The question of whether there were in fact common causes can be The quantum causal inference problem
answered by tracking whether recovery correlates with the subjects The two quantum systems whose causal structure we are probing
intent to treat. Thus, the ability to intervene allows a complete solu- will be denoted A and B, with A preceding B in time. The
tion of the causal inference problem: it reveals both which variables dynamics relating them may be arbitrarily complicated, involving
are causes of which others and, via the strength of the correlations, any number of additional systems and interactions. Nonetheless,
the precise mathematical form of the causal dependencies. any non-trivial causal relation that is induced between A and B
In this article, we consider the quantum version of this causal takes one of three forms: A could be a cause of B, the two could
inference problem. The challenge is to infer, by probing the be influenced by a common cause, or there could be a mixture of
correlations between two temporally ordered quantum systems, the two causal mechanisms (either a probabilistic mixture or a case
whether one causally influences the other, whether a common cause where both act simultaneously). The three possibilities are depicted
acts on both, or whether a combination of the two possibilities in Fig. 1a,b.
1 Institute
for Quantum Computing, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario N2L 3G1, Canada. 2 Department of Physics & Astronomy, University of
Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario N2L 3G1, Canada. 3 Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics, 31 Caroline St. N, Waterloo, Ontario N2L 2Y5, Canada.
4 Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems, Spemannstrae 38, 72076 Tbingen, Germany. These authors contributed equally to this work.
*e-mail: kried@perimeterinstitute.ca
a b B c B a c FE
B u m
B
B u m D
B F
E D
A A t l
? Gate
s k
A |+
C D E
t l
B B
b
B u m C
s k
B
C
E
D State
E E preparation
A A s k ?
A
|+ C HWP Filter QWP LCR PBS
ppKTP APD Lens 50:50 NPBS
...
HV
| HV V H V|
| HV ...
| HH VH|
HH V|
H|
Figure 3 | Reconstruction of the causal map. Reconstructions based on the interventionist scheme (a) and the observational scheme (b), for three different
causal structures (shown in Fig. 1c), with probability of common cause p = 0 (left), p = 1/2 (middle) and p = 1 (right). We show the Choi representation of
the maps14,15,26 , which is defined as the tripartite state CBD (E CB|D0 1D )(|8+ iD0 D h8+ |). The arrays represent the real (top) and imaginary (bottom)
components of the density matrices, with blue representing positive values and red negative values. The basis is ordered as CBD, that is,
|HHHi = |HiC |HiB |HiD . In the case p = 0, we expect E CB|D = (1/2)1C I B|D , with the identity map I B|D from B to D, which corresponds to a Choi state
CBD = (1/2)1C |8+ iBD h8+ |. When p = 1, we expect E CB|D = |8+ iCB h8+ |TrD , which has Choi state CBD = |8+ iCB h8+ | (1/2)1D . The case p = 1/2
produces an equal mixture of the two. In the experimentthat implemented the interventionist scheme, the state prepared on CE contained an inadvertent
phase shift: instead of |8+ i as planned, it is close to (1/ 2)(|Hi|Hi + ei |Vi|Vi). Based on the correlations between C and B in the purely common-cause
case, we estimated the phase shift to be = 0.17. This accounts for the non-zero imaginary components in the Choi states in the interventionist
scheme. This phase shift is no impediment to causal inference; one can simply revise the Choi states expected from each causal pstructure to include it. The
tomographically reconstructed states, denoted fit , are compared to the expected Choi states by computing the fidelity F (Tr 1/2 fit 1/2 )2 (ref. 16). The
interventionist scheme achieves fidelities of (98.3 0.1)% (p = 0), (98.2 0.2)% (p = 1/2) and (96.6 0.3)% (p = 1) to the expected states, which the
observational scheme matches at (98.38 0.07)%, (98.31 0.07)% and (96.38 0.09)%, respectively. In light of these high fidelities, we note that the
expected Choi states would appear almost indistinguishable from the reconstructed ones depicted here.
the value that the experiment sought to implement, pexp . Our scheme A small systematic error in pfit arises owing to the finite contrast
is shown to extract p with high accuracy, with an rms deviation from of the swap gate: when pexp = 1, only 96% of the input photons
the implemented value of only 0.024. emerge in the correct output path, whereas pexp = 0 implements
This deviation is due mostly to the way we implemented identity with 99% contrast. This is reflected in Fig. 4a: as pexp reaches
the probabilistic mixture, by dividing each measurement into 25 1.00, the best-fitting pfit is only 0.96.
intervals and, for each interval, sampling from (pexp , 1 pexp ) to
decide whether identity or swap is implemented. The relative Data analysis in the observational scheme
frequency of swap realized over the course of such a measurement, Unlike the interventionist scheme, the observational scheme does
therefore, follows a binomial distribution about pexp . The rms not allow a complete tomographic reconstruction of the map
deviation between pexp and pfit due to this effect was estimated by ECB|D in an arbitrary causal scenario. This is because, without the
Monte Carlo to be 0.012, comparable to the observed value. randomizing repreparation, the state prepared on D is the same
ln(2)
0.8
Pattern of correlations Causeeffect Common-cause
explanation? explanation?
0.6 11.5 C11 C22 C33 5v Cvv
+1 +1 +1 +1 E() = 1()1 No
pfit
+1 1 1 +1 E() = 1 ()1 No
0.4
1 +1 1 +1 E() = 2 ()2 No
1 1 +1 +1 E() = 3 ()3 No
1 1 1 1 No = |9 ih9 |
0.2
1 +1 +1 1 No = |8 ih8 |
+1 1 +1 1 No = |8+ ih8+ |
0.0
+1 +1 1 1 No = |9 + ih9 + |
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
pexp Suppose the same Pauli observable is measured on two qubits A and B, that is,
(s, u) {(1, 1), (2, 2), (3, 3)}, and suppose the outcomes k and m are found to be perfectly
correlated, either positively or negatively, with correlation coefficients
Csu p(k = m|su) p(k 6 = m|su) {1}. For simplicity, we also assume that the marginal
b 1.0 6 distribution over k (respectively m) is uniform for all values s (respectively u). In this case,
perfect negative correlation for all three observables can only be explained by a common
ln(2) causenamely, when the measurements are implemented on two qubits prepared in the
singlet state = |9 ih9 |. There is no channel that produces this pattern: it would constitute
0.8 a universal NOT gate, which is not a completely positive map. Similarly, positive correlation for
all three observables admits of a causeeffect explanationnamely, when the measurements
are implemented on the input and output of the identity channel E() = 1()1. No bipartite
0.6 10 state has this pattern of correlations, a fact sometimes described as the nonexistence of an
antisinglet state. Every row of the table can be explained in this fashion. The signature of the
causal structure is contained, therefore, in the product of the correlation coefficients,
pfit
33 . Notation: 1 , 2 and 3 are the Pauli matrices and |9 i (1/ 2)(|0i|1i |1i|0i),
C11 C22 C
0.4 |8 i 1/ 2(|0i|0i |1i|1i) are the Bell states, with {|0i, |1i} the eigenstates of 3 .
a non-Markovian evolution, the state of the system at some time produced the requisite state. The coincidence detection is performed using
t2 is influenced not only directly by the state at time t1 , but also by single-photon detectors and coincidence logic with a window of 3 ns. Our
some environmental degrees of freedom, which act as a reservoir coincidence count rate at B and F is approximately 2,000 Hz.
of information about the state of the system at some earlier time
Received 20 June 2014; accepted 29 January 2015;
t0 the common cause. Our inference schemes may also help
to detect initial correlations between system and environment, published online 23 March 2015
which, if unaccounted for, can lead to errors in the characterization
of processes2530 . References
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