ROAD TR AFFI C HE-ADW A Y DISTRIBUTIONS

D. J. BUCKLEY
,8 . E'., "M .Teo::.,
h
S enlor Researc h Fellow of the Australian Road Research Board, School of Traffic
iEngineerlng, University of N.S.W.

ROAD TRAFFIC HEADWAY DISTRIBUTIONS *

(Paper No.9)

Th e importance of the s.ludy of road traffic headways is discussed and {i

review is made of the literature relating to th~ir probability distribution.
A semi-random model of traffic flow is postulated and hence a probability
density function and m oment generating functi on for headways is derived.
This probability densi.ly fun ction and certain other functions are com-
pared with a limit ed amount of headway frequency data observed on an
American freeway under conditions of high flow, and it is concluded
that the em pirical data is consistent with the semi-random model. The
model is shown 10 be related to various other theories of road traffic,
and amenable .to simulation on a digital electronic computer.
The occurrence of negatively auto-correlated headways for road
traffic at very high volum es is reported and its possible importance dis-
cussed.
A headway probability function is derived for a varying random
m odel which is postulated for road traffic under certain conditions, and
for air traffic.

INTRODUCTION
Road traffic is an extremely complex phenomenon and attempts to
understand it thoroughly can be hazardous . On the one hand it is possible to
fall into the error of over-simplifying the whole process of traffic flow in order
to set up problems which can be solved with the mathematical, computational
or physical aids which one has at one's disposal. On the other hand, there is
the temptation to emphasize empirical results rather than to seek a basic under-
standing of the nature of traffic flow. It is the purpose of this paper to discuss a
certain aspect of traffic flow, namely, the statistical distribution of headways,
making use of theoretical methods where necessary but comparing results with
observed traffic data where such comparison has been practicable and has seemed
appropriate.
ELEMENTARY KINEMATICS OF A TRAFFIC STREAM
A vehicle moving along a predetermined path such as a traffic lane occu-
pies different positions along that path at successive times. That is, some func-
tional relationship between the position x and the time t exists, say, x = x (t ).

" ACKNOWLEDGEMENT-This work was carried out at the School of Traffic Engineering
at the University of N.S.W., under t h e sponsorship of t h e Austr alian Automobile Asso -
ciation a nd the Australian Road Research Board. The aut h or wishes to acknowledge valuable
discussions with Mr. A. G. L. ELLIOTT of the Department of Statistics, with the staff and
st udents of the School of Traffic Engineer ing and with Professor W. R. BLUNDE-N, Head
of the School. Professor B lunden 's consistent e n co uragement and assistance is grateful Iv
recogniz~d. -
The comp ute r p r ogramm in g work was und e r taken mainly by Messrs. B. J. J. McHUGH
and J. E. ROBERTS.

Volume I, 1962 153

 ROAD TRAFFIC HEADWAY DISTRIBUTIONS

x. x (t) x,x \t)

n-1 n.2

t,

Time t

Fig. 1 - Description of a single-lane traffic stream .

In general x (t) will have stochastic as well as deterministic components. Each

of the diagonal lines in Figure J represents such a function, their slopes at various
points representing instantaneous velocities.
Suppose that we designate the position of the nth vehicle in a lane of
traffic as Xn = Xn (t) and the (n +
l)th vehicle as X n +1 = X n +1 (t) and so on.
In general Xn (t) and X n +1 (t) will not be independent. A knowledge of the
functions Xn ( t) , X n + 1 (t), Xn + 2 (t) etc. would constitute a comprehensive know-
lendge of the kinematic properties of the traffic stream, and most traffic flow
theory work can be considered in terms of various characteristics of this family
of functions.
Consider, for example, an observer stationed at the roadside at the point
x = Xa . Vehicles would pass him at successive instants corresponding to the
points where the horizontal line x = Xa crosses the diagonal traces in Figure J .
to is the solution of the equation Xn (t) - Xa = 0, h the solution of the equation
X n + l (t) - X a = 0 and so on. Thus a knowledge of to, h, t2 etc. constitutes a
knowledge of one point on every trace and can be considered a boundary con-
dition of the Xn (t) functions. to, t 1 , t2 etc. are uniquely determined if to ((t1 - to),
(t2 - t 1 ) , (t;: - t2) etc. are known, and as the origin of the t axis is arbitrarily
determined, to is of little value. In other words, a knowledge of (tl - to),
(t2 - t1) etc., that is the vehicular headways, can be considered as the point
to the system.
It should be noted that the vertical line t = tl> would serve just as well as
an input, and the points where this line crosses the traces could be obtained, for
example, by taking an aerial photograph of the traffic stream. Just as the road-

154 PROCEEDINGS
 ROAD TRAFFIC HEADWAY DISTRIBUTIONS

side observer 'freezes' space and observes headways, so the aerial photograph
would freeze time and permit the observation of spacing, the two techniques
providing 'local' and 'instantaneous' inputs respectively in terms of HAIGHT'SI
'Classification. The reciprocal of the mean headway is the flow rate or volume
and the reciprocal of the mean space is the overall density. Although this paper
reports a local analysis, the principles are applicable to the instantaneous situation,
and hence to the whole traffic stream.

THE NATURE OF VOLUME AND THE IMPORTANCE OF HEADWAYS

Vehicular volume or flow rate is probably the most important and widely
used quantity in the professional practice of traffic engineering, and it is natural
that attempts should be made to obtain a close understanding of its nature. At
a given location ona traffic lane the flow rate varies as a function of time.
Considering a function such as this from a mathematical point of view, it is
usual to consider in detail an elemental segment of time and reason inductively
there-from. It soon becomes apparent that in this case the smallest element of
time which can be considered in a meaningful way is equivalent to one headway
and this element is always changing. Moreover, the ordinate of flow correspond-
ing to this element is merely the inverse of the headway. Thus, if we wish to
preserve the convention of thinking in terms of flow rates, the inverse of each
headway can be considered as an instantaneous flow rate. However, in some
'circumstances there is merit in minimizing the use of the terms volume or flow-
rate, because their use can sometimes result in the essential spasmodic or 'quantum'
'character of road traffic being overlooked.
Allied to vehicular volume is the important empirical phenomenon of
vehicular capacity. The concept of a possible capacity, or 'maximum' flow rate
does not appear to have been defined in explicit terms, but in thinking about its
'essential character one is inevitably drawn to the consideration of the magnitude
and occurrence of 'minimum' headways. In other words, the study of traffic
capacity is essentially a study of headway distributions.
The similarity between volume and density has been discussed in the
above section. Associated with these two quantities and in fact, linking them,
is vehicular speed. Much useful work has been done in linking these three
variables and the associated variables, possible capacity, headways and spacings.
The potential worth of this work is self-evident, but before we can properly
understand how these quantities vary with each other we must seek to under-
stand how they vary of themselves, not only because the self-varying characteristic
-of each quantity affects the magnitudes of the other quantities but also because
it is a fundamental characteristic of road traffic.
It is possible to consider a lane of traffic as nothing more than a succession
of moving gaps. Thus, headways and spaces are perhaps the most important
of all traffic variables.
Because of its complexity, road traffic is very amenable to analysis by
simulation on electronic computers. In view of the fundamental nature of head-

Volume I, 1962 155

 ROAD TRA.FFIC HEADWAY DISTRIBUTIONS

ways and their importance as inputs to the Xn (t) family discussed above, it is
not surprising to find that a good understanding of the manner of occurrence.
of headways is a necessary prerequisite to the simulation task.
Thus, a knowledge of headways is frequently more informative than a
knowledge of the flow rate because it reflects much more of the essential nature
of the traffic stream. Headways are the building blocks with which the concepts,
of volume and capacity, and indeed the entire traffic stream, are constructed.

THE STUDY OF HEADWAYS

The most noticeable characteristic of vehicular headways is their obvious.
variability. No matter how homogeneous traffic conditions may be, headways.
observed from the roadside, even during a short period of observation, can be:
extremely dissimilar and it is not surprising to find that attempts to understand
headways have made use of the ideas and methods of mathematical statistics.
and probability theory, primarily by seeking to determine the probability dis-
tribution which would account for observed frequency distributions.

0;, I' ,

PROBABILITY
DENSITY

\Curv. 4
0 25

CurY~ 3 is the function and it is obteined by adding

the ordinates of curves I and 2 . Curve 4 is the
negative exponential curve to which the ta1ls~ qf: curv.C,~!
2 and 3 tcmd. Parametczrs are :-
0 - 20
(J - 3536 t u.
CT - 1022 t .U.
(/' : 0220
A. - 04466 l .u:'

0 - 15

0 10

0 - 05

to 14

HEADWAY . TIME UNITS OF IOAI-lOUR5

(1. . 0 365.C . )

Fig. 2 - Semi-random probability density function equation (17)

156 PROCEEDINGS
 ROA D TRA FFIC HEADWAY DISTRIBUTIONS

Before proceeding to discuss the previous work on this problem, it is

convenient to make mention of a probability distribution which could be called
the generalized Pearson type III distribution 2. If X is a random variate ta~ing
values x, the generalized Pearson type III probability density function is

(1)

for a < x, f(x) = 0

where a' 0, I< > 0 and [3 > 0.
A typical type III distribution curve is sketched in Figure 7. The distri-
bution has the moment generating function-
met) = E(e tX ) = ea t (l-t[3)-K
From this the moment estimates of the parameters, a, f3 and K can be
successively obtained from

:and
where
m'I, m'2, m'3 are the first three sample moments about the origin defined as

m ,__ = -1
-1' n
L
n
x1?
1,
i = 1

m'1 and m'2 for example are the mean and mean-square respectively of the observed
values of x.

THE NEGATIVE EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION

It has been shown by ADAMS 3 that under certain conditions vehicle head-
ways conform to the negative exponential distribution
l _~
fi()
x = ~e f3' (2)

This distribution is sometimes called the exponential distribution and is a

particular case of the generalized type III distribution because equation (2) can
be obtained directly from equation (1) by substituting the particular values
a = 0 and K = 1 in the latter. The curve of equation (2) is plotted in Figure 4
(I
Volume I, 1962 157
 ROAD TRAFFIC HEADWAY DISTRIBUTIONS

I
I
I
I
I
I
~ . 0 -'
I
I
J: : Assumed limit of
UJ +0 -2 ~ .. _ tqndczncy to nczga t I\lq
> I auto - corrczlot ion .
;;;
I
'"
W
U
U
~ +<)-1
....
. I
I
I
I
o I
I
'"t- I
~ O~----~------~'O--~~~I5~----~~~----.~'~
5 ~--~~~----~J~51------'~0~M~
'NU~TE~V07.~_~E~S
Q I.
~. I
8 -0-'
Z
iI
o I.
~ I
~ I
a:
a:
-0-' I
I
~ L owczr 5L significance Iczvel 1

12
~ -0 '1

Fig . 3 - Scatter diagram of auto-correlation coefficients of successive headways vs minute volumes.

_ and the distribution implies that a knowledge of the time of arrival of any vehicle
gives no information at all about the likely time of arrival of the next vehicle.
In other words, it assumes that vehicles arrive completely at random.
Using simulation methods WEBSTER 4 has shown that for a certain type-
of intersection having fixed-time signals, the assumption of random arrivals gives.
very satisfactory estimates of expected delays. Using a theoretical approach to
a similar problem, NEwELL 5 has shown that delays are somewhat insensitive to
the form of the statistical distribution of the head ways of the arriving traffic
streams and that, to a reasonable order of accuracy, the assumption of random
arrivals is probably satisfactory for this problem. PERCHONOK and LEVy7 have
implied excellent agreement between headway data observed on a Chicago free-
way and the negative exponential distribution .
There are several other important reasons why the negative exponential
distribution has been widely adopted . Numerical work associated with it is
relatively simple, it is convenient to handle analytically because of its interesting
truncating property and Markovian characteristics, and .it is easy to reproduce
physically using electronic techniques or digitally on electronic computers, the
latter by at least two different methods 6 . Moreover, the counting distribution- with
which it is associated is the well-known Poisson distribution. A great deal of
useful theoretical work, particularly in the theory of queues, has been developed
based on the assumption of random arrivals .

158 PROCEEDINGS
 ROA D TRA li'FI C HEADWA Y DI S TRI BU TIONS

14 0

11 0

~
a 120

E
11 0

100
Bars ore obsczrvczd data and curve is best
fit tor equat ion 2 I tM: negative exp oMntio l
to distribution . Sample size =- 60 9

10

70

00

so

40

JO

20

10

IJ IS 16 17 18 1'9 20
0
HE A DWAY. TIm. unit s of 10-' hours (i . . O 36 <ec.p

Fig. 4 - Ne ga tive expo nential distri bution.

Notwithstanding the foregoing, there are several objections to the use of

the negative exponential distribution to describe the headway distributions of
road traffic, except at low volumes.
(a) Reference to Figure 4 demonstrates the fact that if the random model is valid , head-
ways in other ranges" notably those of the order of one to two seconds' o,
other range. Although the existence of near-zero headways in a given traffic lane
has been observed and discussed B it is apparent that they are much rarer than h ead-
ways in other ranges" notably those of the order of one to two seconds10
(b) The important work done on 'local car-following' theory and 'car-following in the:
large' theory' is meaningless if drivers position their vehicles quite independently of all
other vehicles in the traffic stream.
(c) The assumption of random arrivals is irreconcileable with the well-known empirical
phenomenon of saturation flow or 'possible capacity'.
(d) Common experience indicates that there 'is always 'interference between vehicles, induc-
ing an element of regularity into arrival times'".
(e) Conclusions about the nature of traffic at low volumes and under certain highway and
traffic conditions are not necessarily universally applicable. It is instructive to note
that the traffic context in which ADAMs 3 in 1936 did his famous work on the r andom-
ness of a traffic stream permitted him to make the observation that traffic 'saturation
is in practice a ra re condition'. It is the fact that this situation no longer prevails
which demands a reappraisal of the validity of the assumption of randomness .
(f) If the arrival-time of all vehicles at a given point of a multi-lane facility were recorded
and the headway frequency distribution obtained it is possible that it would fit the
negative exponential distribution reasonably well. This does not mean that individual
lanes of the traffic facility will exhibit this characteristic. It is obvious that a good
deal of non-randomness within each lane will be swamped by the fact that vehicles

Volume I, 1962 159'

 ROAD TRAFFIC HEADWAY DISTRIBUTIONS

in a given lane will behave independently of vehicles in other lanes. This is particu-
larly obvious if both directions of flow are considered together for the purpose of
obtaining the frequency distribution. Single lane data has more intrinsic value than
multi-lane data for the purpose of extracting basic information about traffic flow.
'(g) The analysis of headway frequency distributions is often an incidental part of a much
broader project< 1 3 H and as such does not warrant a highly detailed and rigorous
investigation. For example PERCHONOK and LEVY" in their excellent paper* on computer
simulation state that the cumulative distribution of headways observed in a Chicago
freeway is of the form
- x
F(x) = l-eT (3)
in the notation of the present paper. This distribution is implied in equation (2).
However, it is not clear that the evidence presented establishes the validity of eith0r
equation (2) or equation (3). Any critical re-evaluation of the data should take account
of the essential philosophy of the ' x 2 goodness-of-fit test, the applicability of this test
to cumulative frequency data and the idea that an extremely good fit can be just as
suspect as an extremely bad fit. Further, it is not clear whether or not the data has
been taken from more than one lane of a multi-lane facility , and the remarks under (f)
may be applicable.
"(h) It has been mentioned above that the assumption of random arrivals is sometimes satis-
factory for estimating average delays at fixed-time traffic signals. It does not necessarily
follow that the distribution of delay can be properly assessed on this basis. Nor does
it follow that the assumption of randomness is adequate for the analysis of vehicle-
actuated signals having the familiar gap-change systems, sensitive as these are to the
length of headways detected in the traffic stream.

SOME OTHER DISTRIBUTIONS

To take account of the fact that the negative exponential distribution
exhibits too much probability in the zone near x = 0, NEWELL 5 suggested that
bead way distributions might conform to the negative exponential distribution,
but that the latter should be displaced a to the right to allow for the existence of
a certain fixed minimum headway. This idea is implicit in SCHUL'S15 work and
has been used by GERLOUGH6 and others. The resulting distribution might be
-called the dispiaced negative exponential distribution and is of the form
1 x-a
I(x) = -e - - ( 3 . (4)
f3
This is a particular case of the generalized Pearson type III distribution,
being obtained from equation (1) by putting K = 1. An example of the distribu-
tion is sketched in Figure 5, where the obvious disadvantage of a very sharp cut-off
at x = a is apparent.
A distribution which has the correct general form but does not have the
disadvantage of a sharp cut-off is the Erlang distribution

I(x) = f3K(}_l)!xK-le-~ (5)

where K is a positive integer.

* ERRA TUM. Ref. p. 508 . The expres sion f o r Fish e r's normal approximation to the x'
v aria t e r eads y2 X2 - y2 n' - 1. It should r ead y 2X2 - y 2n' - I, see for example ref-
eren ce 11 P. 371.

160 PROCEEDINGS
 ROAD TR AFFIC H EA D WAY DISTRIBU TI ONS

.&0

.50

,.
Ii 240
~
~ 210

'20

210

200

190

110

Bars are: ob5e:rv~d data and curve is oot t i

170
equation 4 the: di,placlld nllgotiw Illltponllntie
I

distribution . Sample: sizlZ = 609

160

ISO

140

1]0

120

110

100

'0

I 10

70

&0

50

40

00

.0

10

0 13 14 15 16 17 II 19 10 21

HEADWAY. nm. units of 10-~hours (i . . O 36..)

Fig . 5 - Displaced negative exponential distribution .

This is clearly a particular case of equation (1) , being obtained from the
latter by substituting a = 0, stipulating that K is integral and noting that for
this case r (K) = (K - I)! The distribution occurs in queueing theory because
it arises from the sum of K negative exponential variates. Its associated count-
ing distribution has been obtained9 The Erlang distribution reflects a traffic
condition which is intermediate between random and regular22 . For K = 1 it is
the negative exponential distribution (equation (2)) that is, it is 'random' . As
K is increased the density distribution becomes more 'peaky', indicating more

Volume I, 1962 16t

 RO A D TRAFFIC HEADWAY DISTRIBUTIONS

130

Bars ore: obse:rvlld data and curve

100 is best tit for czquotion 5, the gamma
dis tr ibut ion . Samplcz sizcz ~ b09

10

13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
HEADWAY. Tim. units of 10-4 hoo r> (i.o .036",C.)

Fig. 6 - Gamma distribution.

regularity until as K ---? C/J vehicles arrive at equal intervals apart. Thus K can
be used as a measure of congestion. One would expect K to increase and (3 to
decrease with increasing flows.
A slightly more general distribution is obtained if the K equation (5)
is permitted to be non-integral. The resulting distribution is sometimes called
the gamma distribution, and a typical curve is sketched in Figure 6. Although
this generalization complicates the mathematical manipulation of the function it
broadens its range of practical applicability by covering the case of over-dispersed
distribution 16 when 0 < K < 1, and permits more accurate fits to data by
allowing the use of values of K other than the nearest integer to the estimate.
Unpublished work by TINDALL and others at the School of Traffic Engineering at
the University of N.S .W. indicates that in the range 1 < K < 2, the gamma dis-
tribution yields good fits to headway data observed on the Sydney Harbour Bridge.
MILLER20 also reports reasonably good fits to the gamma distribution.
As shown in TABLE I and discussed above, the foregoing distributions are
special cases of the generalized Pearson type III distribution (equation (1)) and
the most logical approach to the testing of the various distributions would be
A A A
to obtain the best estimates, say a, {3 and K of the parameters a, (3 and K of
A
equation (1) for a given set of data and inspect them. If, for example, a ,....., 0
A
and K ,....., 1 it would follow that equation (2), the negative exponential distribu-
tion, is better than the other distributions mentioned. Ideally, the variance of
the estimates of the parameters should also be computed and a goodness-of-fit
test carried out. Similar remarks apply to distributions (2), (4) and (5) and
the gamma distribution.

162 PROCEEDINGS
 RO AD TRAFFI C HEADWA Y DI S TRI B UTI ONS

TABLE I
DISTRIBUTIONS AS PARTICULAR CASES OF GENERALIZED PEARSON
TYPE III DISTRIBUTION, EQUATION (1) .

Values of parameters of generalized

Pearson type III distribution adopted,
Equation Figure in order to obtain the various
Name of distribution number number distributions. *

Negative exponential
distribution 2 3 a - 0, K - 1
Displaced negative
exponential distribution 4 4 K -
- 1
Erlang distribution 5 similar to a - 0, K a positive integer
Figure 5
Gamma distribution 5 5 a -
Generalized Pearson type
III distribution 1 6 --

* Note that distribution (17), the semi-random distribution, does not fall into this family
of distributions.

The idea that there are two sub.:populations of headways each having its
own distribution has been put forward. The composite distribution takes the
form
(6)
where 0 ~ cf> ~ 1
SCHUHL 15 has suggested (again in the notation of this paper) that

1_ ~
f 1(X) = f31 e f3,

and that f2(x) is given by either

or (7)

and has obtained good agreement with headway data using equations (6) and
(7). LEUTZBACH 18 has suggested two pairs of functions similar to these and
reports similar work by HONDERMARQ and KRELL, the latter having postulated
a number of trigonometrical functions for f2 (x).

Three further distributions will be discussed in this paper and they h ave
been called for convenience a regular-random distribution, a varying-random dis-
tribution and a semi-random distribution.

Volume J, 1962 163

 ROAD TRAFFIC HEA D';Y-AY DISTRIBUTIONS

A REGULAR-RANDOM DISTRIBUTION
This distribution is to some extent .inherent in the moving queue work of
TANNER 19 and in so far as headway distributions are concerned, it is an extension
of equation (4) the displaced negative exponential distribution. The additional
assumption is made that a proportion cf> of all vehicles terminate headways of
exactly a , the remaining proportion (1 - cf of vehicles terminating headways
from the probability density function of equation (4). The regular-random
probability function is thus the particular case of equation (6) when

flex) = 1 (8)

for x = a flex) = 0
and otherwise,
and (4)

Distribution (8) could be described more formally as the Dirac delta

impulse function 28 : 0 (x - a).

MILLER 20 describes a traffic model whereby randomly placed vehicles are

moved backwards in time where necessary in order to maintain a constant mini-
mum headway which is designated a in this paper. These nales are analogous
to the situation arising at an orthodox queueing facility having a constant ser-
vice time and experiencing random arrivals. The regular-random probability
density function will describe the probability distribution of intervals between
successive vehicles leaving the queue, although samples from this distribution will
not necessarily be un-autocorrelated.
It will be shown that cf> is a function of a and f3. Clearly, for a stationary
process the mean inter-arrival interval a is equal to the mean inter-exit interval, i.e.

a = c,ba+(1-c,b)(a+f3) = a+f3(1-c,b) .
Now a is the service time and hence Kendall's 'traffic-intensity'22 is
a
p= -
a
a
p = -a+-f3-::-:(--'---1-c,b--'-:-)

But the probability of a queue-exit interval exceeding a equals the prob-

ability of not being delayed in the queue, i.e. 1 - p, the probability of arriving
to find the system empty. This is equal to 1 - cf>, the probability of a headway
exceeding a. Thus we have
a
p = c,b = a+f3(1-c,b)

164 PROCEEDINGS
 ROAD TRAFFIC HEADWAY DISTRIBUTIONS

Solving for p and neglecting the non-equilibrium solution we have

p exl(3. Thus the distribution of headways according to this model is

f(x) = ~o(x-a)+( l_~)~e- X;a (9)

and the expected value of the distributions is

~2 +(l-~)(a+f3) = f3 .
The principal objection to this model is the fact that it assumes the exist-
ence of a certain fixed minimum headway ex. Some headways exceed ex by vary-
ing amounts, quite a number are exactly ex but none is less than ex. Moreover,
in practice, drivers will often tend to behave in such a way that 1> is reduced to
values less than exl (3.
The regular-random process described here is a generalization of the so-
called stuttering Poisson process 31 .

A VARYING RANDOM DISTRIBUTION

The distribution which is postulated might be appropriate to the situation
where arrivals are at random but the mean arrival rate varies rapidly, and
could arise in the case of headway data observed over long periods at low flows.
It may also be descriptive of the mode of entry of aircraft into an air traffic
control system at either arrival or departure .
If the mean flow rate is A the headway distribution is g(x) = A e- AX ,
Suppose that A varies around a mean Am in accordance with the Gamma distribu-
tion having the time independent density function

h(iI) = iJk)(klk-le-~
The mean value of the flow rate is ktl = Am and it is assumed to be
finite. The density distribution of headway is thus

f(x) = fOCi g(x)h(iI)dil = 1 fCC! ilke ->'(~+ X)dA

o iJT(k) 0
kiJ (10)
or f(x) = (1 +iJX)k+1
and lim f(x) = ilme->.mx
k -HX)

as one would expect because as k ---') co the flow tends to a Poisson Process.
Distribution (10) is the Pearson type VIn distribution 2 .
If the dispersaF6 of a distribution is defined as the ratio of the square
root of the variance to the mean, it can be shown that the dispersal associated
with distribution (10) is

fJ-2t =
fJ-
[_k ]t
k-1'
Volume I, ] 962 165
 ROA D TRAFFIC HEADWAY DISTRIBUTIONS

It follows that distribution (10) is always over-dispersed but becomes

less dispersed as k ~ 00. This can be seen intuitively from the fact that as the
flow rate becomes less variable, so also will the dispersion of the headways.
The spacing distribution associated with any counting distribution (the
counting interval being randomly situated with respect to the process being studied)
can be obtained using the relationships of McF ADDEN21 and others, whence it can
be shown that the negative binomial counting distribution yields a spacing distri-
bution of the same form as distribution (10). This is not surprising because
if the flow rate A is integrated out of the Poisson distribution over the Erlang
distribution the negative binomial distribution results l l .

A SEMI-RANDOM MODEL OF TRAFFIC FLOW

In this section a model for free-flowing single lane traffic is postulated.
It is assumed that behind each vehicle there is a zone which vehicles never enter.
This might be termed a zone at emptiness. A proportion 1> of headways result
from the rear vehicle of the gap being placed at the extremity of this zone and
will be termed type 1 headways. A proportion (1 - 1 of headways result from
the rear vehicle being placed at rand,om behind the front vehicle, subject of
course to the condition that no vehicles enter the zone of emptiness. This group
will be called type 2 headways. Suppose that we measure the zone in time units
and denote its magnitude as Z. It is assumed that Z varies in accordance with
the normal distribution having a mean of 8 and a small variance (T2 . Hence the
type 1 headways are distributed as

-=<z<= (11)

where T / 8 is small.

We will now determine the probability density function t2(X) of the type 2
headways. Now the random variate X will be distributed in the same way as
the negative exponential distribution except that X cannot be less than Z. If F 2 (x)
is the cumulative distribution of X we have
Fz(x) = P(X < x) = P(Y < xlY < Z)
where Y is a negative exponential variate having density function

g(y) = Ae-'\y for 0 ~ y < 00 (12)

=0 otherwise.

Putting A(x) P(Z<Y <x) and B = P(Y>Z), we have

A(x)
B

and noting that B is independent of x it follows that

166 PROCEEDINGS
 ROAD TRAFFI C HE ADWAY DISTRIBUTIONS

rex) = ~F (X) = 1.B dA(x) .

.12 dx 2 dx

Now

dA(x)
dX =
JX
_ 00 g(x) fl(Z) dz

_( Z-0)2
.
.. f2(X) -_ -B1 JX Ae -AX . 1 I 2 e~ dz for 0 <x< 00 (13)
- 00 'V 27TCT

=0 otherwise
_(Z- 0)2

where B = 0
oo JY Ae - AY 1
e
~
dz dy
J - 00 y'27TCT 2

In order that B might be explicitly evaluated, and also in order to facilitate the
rest of the analysis, jt is convenient to re-define equation (13) by permitting j2(X)
to be defined for negative values of x. Thus we define

. _(Z-0)2
.
f2(X) =
IJx
B* Ae- h 1
. /2 2 e
~
dz
- 00 V 7TCT

As f2* (x) is a probability density function we have

-(Z-O)'
x 1 2a'
whence B* = J oo Ae- AX e dz dx
- ro J- ro y'27TCT 2

- (Z - O)'

... . r 2.()
X = e0'"-.a,,
1 ' " \
l\e -o'U.
, JX 1 -2 e
- 2a' dz . (14)
- 00 y'27TCT
Some errors will be introduced in the probability associated with positive
variates because the probability of negative variates is assumed to be non-zero .
It can be shown that

B 0 M' e- d fro - ,~t'

e - dt
-B* -- e OA-*a'A' - t+ .
-- -
-
J a --
- ro y'27T
0
;y-aA
--
-
y27T .

Volume I, 1962 167

 ROA D TRA FFIC HEADWAY DISTRIBUTIONS

Whence for values of parameters obtained from Californian Freeway

data under traffic conditions where the error would be high it was found to be
only about 0.06 per cent. The parameters are listed in TABLE II.
lt is interesting to note that distribution (14) can be obtained in a
different manner. Consider the two independent distributions

g(y) =Ae- Ay for O< y< oo (15)

=0 otherwise

and -oo < z < oo (16)

where

Define the random variate X = Y +

Z. The distribution of X can be
obtained from the convolution integral of g(y) and a(z)

f~ 00 g(x -z)a(z)dz

and upon substitution of (15) and (16) this yields

which is identical with equation (14). This means that the density distribu-
tion of headways where the second vehicle is placed at random can be obtained
by adding together two other random variates, namely those generated
from distributions (15) and (16). This is convenient for the purpose of generat-
ing headways on a digital electronic computer because the random variates
associated with the distributions of equation (15) and (16) can both be generated
using standard programming methods.
The additive relationship affords a direct method of obtaining the moment
generating function of distribution (14).
It follows from the statement of the model that the probability
density function of headways is t(x) = CPtl (x) +
(1 - cp) t2* (x)
where
II (x) is given by equation (11) and t2* (x) by equation (14). That is we have

Figure 2 illustrates this distribution for the following values of the para-
meters-

168 PROCEEDINGS
 ROAD TRAF'FIC HEADWAY DISTRIBUT IONS

8 1.273 sec
-

0- 0.368 sec
1> - 0.220
A - 1.247 sec -1 .
These values have been selected in order to fit the headway data described
below.
Curve 1 is the expression

curve 2 the expression

x 1 (z - 8)'
(l-4f2(X) = (1_4eOll-ta2l1'ite - lIx
f -00
_
y27TU2
e- 2;]2dz

and curve 3 is expression (17) which is

f(x) = 4>fl(X) +(l-4f2(X) .
That is, curve 3 is obtained by summing the ordinates of curves 1 and 2.
Curve 4 is the expression
(l-4eOll- !aWite -lIX

and illustrates the fact that under the semi-random model the longer headways
are distributed as a negative exponentially distributed sub-population. This
appears to be consistent with the results reported by MILLER20 . For long head-
ways there is an insignificant number of type 1 headways (curve 1) and very
few of the type 2 headways (curve 2) are influenced by the zone of emptiness.
Consequently vehicles tend to be randomly placed. In other words, curve 3 tends
to curve 2 which in turn tends to curve 4, the last named being a negative ex-
ponentially distributed sub-population.
Curve 3 has a clearly defined peak at just under 2 sec, a sharp decline to
zero but no actual" cut-off. That is, the occurrence of very small headways, less
than say 0.3 sec, is improbable but not impossible.
It can be seen from equation (17) that f(x) tend to fl (x), the normal
distribution, as 1> .approaches unity. As 1> approaches zero, f(x) tends to f2(X),
which in turn tends to a negative exponential distribution for most x provi~ed
that A approaches either zero or 28/0- 2 The second alternative is unlikely to
be encountered in practice, as also is the case 1> ~ 0, 0- ~
which f(x) is exponential for all x.
and 8 ~ 0, for
Now /1 (x) is normally distributed and has moment generating function

a(z) is also normally distributed with moment generating function

Volume I, 1962 169

 ROAD TRAl!"'FI C HEA D WAY DI S T R I BUTIONS

g (y ) (equation (15 ) ) has moment generating function

,\
'\ - t

As distributions (15) and (16) are independent and as the sum of their .
ra ndom variates yields distribution (14) it follows that the m.g.f. of distribution
(1 4 ) is

_ '\_e<t++a't'
'\-t

where E = 8 -a2,\ and the m.g.f. of distribution (17) is

(18)

The moments of distribution (17) can be obtained by successive differen-

tiation of (18) or by making use of the relationship

where
p: p is the pth moment of distribution (17) , fL' p a the pth moment of distribution
(11 ) and fL' pb the pth moment of distribution (14). fL' pb can be obtained from
the summation property of distribution (14) making use of the binomial ex-
pansion . The result is

(19a)

(19b)

(19c)

(19d)
where E = 8-a 2,\ as before.

Distribution (17) , the probability density function of headways under

the semi-random model is of a somewhat difficult form. It might be expected
that the cumulative distribution would be of an even more complex form.
Fortunately, this is not the case because it can be shown by integration by parts
that it simplifies to

170 PROCE EDINGS

 ROAD TRAFFIC HEADWAY DISTRIBUTIONS

eX

F (x) = J_ 00 f(x)dx

= [4>_(1_4e OA - -}U'A'e- AX ]N(x a 8) +(1-4N(x a E)

where () I
N s = s
-CJJ
- 1- e-'1. Z'dz.
y27T I
N (s) also appears in equation (17) and it is widely tabulated. It can
also be readily evaluated numerically30.

COMPARISON WITH OBSERVED DATA

Five of the distributions quoted above have been compared with observed
data, the distributions tested being the negative exponential distribution (equation
4), the generalized Pearson type III distribution (equation 1) and the semi-
random distribution (equation 17). The Erlang distribution (equation 5 with
K integral) was not tested as such but it is very similar to the gamma distribution
which would, in general, yield slightly better fits to observed data because the
best estimate of K can be used rather than the nearest integer, as is the case with
the Erlang distribution.
As a result of discussions between Professor W. R. BLuNDEN and officers
of the California Division of Highways, a quantity of suitable headway data was
made available. Observation of headways had been made on lane 4 , west-bound,
of the 8-lane Hollywood Freeway at the Bonnie Brae over-crossing which is about
5,000 ft west of the well-known four-level down-town Los Angeles interchange.
The four west-bound lanes carried 7,230 vehicles during the hour of observation
which was between 4.00 and 5.00 p.m. on 16th July, 1958, and lane 4 carried
2,130 vehicles. The mean speed was about 47 m.p.h. and operation was smooth
and typical of the location. .
The decision to use freeway data was taken not only because of its availa-
bility, but also because the freeway can be considered as something of a traffic
laboratory in which extraneous variables are reduced to a minimum. This
laboratory is not, of course, removed from reality because freeways service a very
large and growing proportion of total vehicular movement and they constitute
an enormous capital expenditure. American data was used because results ob-
tained could be related to the enormous amount of empirical information avail-
able about American traffic phenomena.
All 2,130 headways were listed successively and the total divided into
60 one-minute intervals. An auto-correlation analysis of this and other Los Angeles
freeway headway data was carried out in order to determine whether the length
of a given headway was dependent upon the length of the headway in front. The
result of this test was very interesting because it revealed a tendency towards
negative auto-correlation at high volumes, especially at minute volume greater
than about 35 veh/min. Figure 3 is the scatter diagram of auto-correlation co-
efficient plotted against minute volumes. In general terms, this means that at
high volumes, the headway behind a car will be long if the headway in front of
it is short, and it will be short if the headway in front .is lorrg. Both of these effects

Volume I, 1962 171

 ROAD TRAFFI C HE.'~D"W A Y DISTRIBUTIONS

would result from most drivers being aware of the possibility of multi-vehicle
tail-end collisions and the effect will probably become more apparent if the
present trend towards better all-round visibility in motor vehicles continues and
drivers become more able to see through the vehicle in front to the one two in
front. This tendency towards negative auto-correlation could affect car-following
theories as it implies direct interaction between the nth, (n + 1) th and (n + 2)
th vehicles. Furthermore, it could help to explain the phenomenon of possible
capacity because it reduces the probability of occurrence of large numbers of
successive small headways, and hence of very high volumes. Rapid automatic
computation of the coefficient is relatively straight-forward and such computation
might serve as a predictor of flow break-down and hence be useful for signal
control of freeway on-ramps.
It was considered desirable to avoid auto-correlated headway data in test-
ing the various probability functions because the associated headway frequency
distributions would not constitute a random sample. Thus it was decided that
data observed at minute volumes greater than 35 veh/min should be excluded
from the study. On the other hand, it was considered that the highest possible flow
rates below this should be studied because low flow rates are well approximated
by the negative exponential distribution and would not afford a sufficiently rigorous
test of the theory. Moreover, high capital and operational costs are associated
with bigh volume conditions and it is usually high volume conditions which
challenge the traffic engineer. Furthermore, high volume conditions may lead to
insights into the phenomenon of possible capacity and to a reconciliation of the
stochastic and deterministic approaches to the study of traffic flow.
Thus the head ways observed during minute volumes of 33, 34 and 35
veh/ min were used for the analysis, 609 headways in all.
The traffic analyser recorded the time of arrival of all vehicles to the
nearest 0.0001 hours and the frequency distribution of the headways is shown in
Figures 4 to 8 inclusive. Note that the time 0.0001 hours has been defined as
one time unit. The distribution is similar in form to that obtained by May and
Wagner for similar volumes on freeways in Detroit, Michiganlo.
The method of moments was used to obtain estimates of parameters for
the various distributions and consequently the sample moments were computed
and adjusted using Shepherd's corrections l l . The first four adjusted sample
moments about the origin are
m'l 4.90804 (time units)
m'2 29.5341 (time units)2
m'g 220.144 (time units)3
m'4 2009.26 (time units)4
and these were equated to the popUlation moments fl.: 1, 11-'::!, 11-'3 and 11-'4 respec-
tively (equation 19), and the parameters estimated.
TABLE II shows the result of the moment analysis. In all cases except
one expressions were obtained for estimates of parameters by solving the simul-
taneous equations obtained by equating the sample moments to the population
moments listed in TABLE II. As there is no explicit solution of the four simul-
taneous equations of the semi-random distribution, it was necessary to use numeri-

172 PROCEEDINGS
 ~
c TABLE II
g HEADWAY PROBABILITY FUNCTIONS
......
-
\0
0\
N
Name and equation
number
Probability density
function
Moment generating
function Population moments Moment estimates

1 -~
Negative exponential
distribution (2)
-e
fj
{3
(l-tfj)-l J1-~ = fj f3 = 4.9080 (time units)
J1-~ = a+fj
Displaced negative
exponential distribution (4)
If1 X -
-{3-
a
eta(l - tfj)- l
J1-~ = a2+ 2afj+2fj2
a '= 2.5746 (time units)
f3 = 2.3335 (time units)
1 (X) K'- l X (l - t[j) _K J1-~ = fjK f3 = 1.2270 (time units)
Erlang distribution (5)* fj(K - l)! ~ e- i3 J1-~ = [j2K(K+l) K = 1.3664
l' (X)K-l X (l - tfj) _K J1-~ = fjK f3 = 1.1094 (time units)
Gamma distribution (5) fjr(K) ~ e - if J1-~ = fj2K(K + l) K = 4.4240
J1-~ = a+ fjK a = 2.1804 (time units)
Generalized Pearson type
"I distribution (1)
1
fjr (K)c;a) K-le _x;a eta(l - tfj) _K J1-~ = a2+ 2afjK + fj 2K(K + l) f3 =
1.9962 (time units)
J1-~ = a 3 + 3a 2fjK + 3afj2K(K + 1) + fj3 K(K + l)(K + 2) K=4

J1-~ = </>8 + (1 - </( E+~) e= 3.536 (time units)

</> _ (x - o)' J1-~ = </>(8 2 + a2)+ (I - 4( E2+ a2 + 2).10 +~) (J = 1.022 (time units)
- =e 2a'
27Ta 2 </>eOt -Ha't'
Semi-random + (l - </e Oll - ,}a 211'
J1-~ = </>(8 3 + 3a 28) + (I - 4( 3+ 3a2 + ~2 +~a2 = 0.2~0

distribution (17)
Note that 10 = e - (J 2"A, x ] (t - o)' >. 6 6)
+:.\2+",\3
).e - lIx
I _ 00
- =e- 2 Tdt
y 27Ta 2
+ (1 - </ - eEt + ~a' t '
). - t
J1-~ = 4>(8 4 + 6a 282+ 3a4 )+ (I - 4[ E + 6a22+ 3a
4 4
"A, = 0.4488 (time unit) _1

+x4( 3+ 3a210) + 12(

2 2) 2410 24]
,\ 2 10 +a +--xs+ ).4

-
--.J
W
~, Note that this di stribution has not been tested as it will , in ge nera l, afford a worse fit th an the gamma distribution.
 ROAD TRAFFI C HEADWAY DISTRIBUTIONS

cal methods to solve them. And this was done using the University of N.S.W.'s
English Electric Deuce digital electronic computer.
The ordinates of the five distributions were also computed and are graphed
in Figures 4 to 8 inclusive, together with the empirical frequency distributions.
Expected results could not be obtained by direct integration of the density
functions because of the manner in which the data had been obtained. Each
headway was computed by differencing successive arrival times each of which
could be up to 0.5 time units in error. Consider, for example, a headway of
9.8 time units . This headway would sometimes be classified 9 time units and some-
times 10 time units, the former with probability 0.2, the latter with probability 0.8.
Similarly, a headway of, say, 10.3 time units would be classified 10 time units
with probability 0.7 and 11 time units with probability 0.3. Whence, it can be
seen by induction (as well as by theoretical considerations) that the probability
of a headway of length t being classified as s has the triangular distribution-

c(t) = 1 +t - s for s - 1 :( t < s

=1-t+s for s:( t < s +1
=0 otherwise

170

160

150

,.0

130

Bars arcz obsczrvczd do to and curvcz is bczst tit for

120 e:qu otion I. thcz genlZrolislld P torson typG! m
distr ibution . Samplcz siu = 609
11 0

'00

90

00

70

'"
50

'0

30

20

'0

0 13 14 15 16 17 II 19
HEADWAY. 11m. unit> of 10' hours (i. . 0 36 soc)

Fig . 7 - Generalized Pearson type III distribution.

174 PROCEE D1NGS

 ROAD TRAFF'I C HEADWAY DISTRIBUTIONS

"0

ISO

"0

130

120 Bars arIZ obsefVlld doto and curvtl

is best tit tor equation 17. the
110
semi - random distribution .
Samp" SilO = 609
100

90

80

70

60

SO

.0

30

20

10

0 12 13 ~ I' 16 17 " 19 20
HEADWAY. TIm. units ot 10- hour< (i . .O 36<<<.)

Fig. 8 - Semi-random distribution.

If the headways have probability density function t(t) , the probability

of a headway being classified s is

I:-l (l+t - s)f(t)dt+

1
I:+ (l-t+s)f(t)dt.

These expected values were computed using a semi-graphical method for

all five distributions quoted and compared with observed values using the X2 good-
ness-of fit test. Results of the tests are summarized in TABLE III. Note that no
test was made of the Erlang distribution because it is of a similar form to the
gamma distribution and will usually provide a worse fit than the latter. Groups
were combined so that no expected value was less than 5. Groups 1 and 2 were
also combined for the X2 test because of certain reservations which were held
concerning the accuracy of the recording equipment for measuring very short
headways. This grouping in no way affected the conclusions of this paper.
As discussed previously and systematized in TABLE II, distributions (2),
( 4) and (5) are particular cases of distribution (1) and are obtained by forcing
the parameters of distribution (1), the generalized Pearson type III distribution ,
to take certain values. Thus, one would expect distribution (1) to fit the data
better than distributions (2) , (4) and (5) , and this is in fact the case.

Vo'h.lil1e I, 1962 175

 R OA D TRA FFI C H E A DWA Y DISTRIB UTIONS

TABLE III
GOODNESS-OF-FIT TESTS
I
Name of distribution Number of Degrees of P, the probability
and equation number I Figure parameters X
2
freedom of worse fit

Negative exponential
distribution (2) 4 1 516.9 13 approx.
10....100
I

Displaced negative
exponential d istribution (4) 5 2 48 .87 8 10--5

10--5
Erlang distribution (5) Similar to 2 - - (in general less
Figure 5 than for gamma
distribution)

Gamma distribution (5) 6 2 56 .20 8 10--5

Ii
Generalized Pearson type III
distribution (1) 7 3 16.04 7 0 .025

Semi-random distribution (17) 8 4 6.80 6 0 .34

i

Figure 4 demonstrates the inadequacy of the negative exponential dis-

tribution to fit single-lane headway frequency data observed at high volumes. The
fit is very bad at short headways and little better at long headways. The probability
P of a worse fit due to random sampling errors if the data does in fact come from
the negative exponential distribution is approximately 10-100 , a value obtained
by summing a Poisson series 24 .
The displaced negative exponential distribution (equation (14)), Figure
5 provides a somewhat better fit. The contribution to the X2 value at small head-
ways is considerably reduced and for head ways greater than about 7 time units
( 2.52 sec ) the fit is excellent. Nevertheless the value of P is less than 10- 5 and
the distribution also has the theoretical disability of allowing no probability of
occurrence of headways less than lX. In other words, it implies that it is 'im-
possible' to have headways less than , in this case, 2.57 time units (0.925 sec),
although at least two observed headways, and probably more, were less than this.
Equation (5 ), the gamma distribution (Figure 6) does not exhibit this
cut-off property and has a very suitable general form. However, the X2 analysis

176 PROCEEDINGS
 RO A D TRA FFIC HEADW A Y DISTRIBUTIO N S

indicates that the fit is not good at any part of the range and a value of P of less
tnan 10- 5 was obtained. The Erlang variate is relatively easy to generate on an
electronic computer and its distribution has the same general form as the gamma
variate. However, because of the fact that K must be integral, the fit would in
general be worse than that which would be obtained from the gamma distribution.
That is, P would be less than 10- 5 .
It is not surprising to find that equation (1), the generalized Pearson
type III distribution, affords a somewhat better agreement with the data than any
of the previously mentioned distributions and a P value of 0.025 was obtained.
Agreement is best at large and intermediate headways. As discussed above for
the displaced negative exponential distribution, the generalized Pearson type III
distribution allows no probability of head ways less than a, which in this case is
2.18 time units (0.785 sec). In the case of the displaced negative exponential dis-
tribution a was 0.925 sec. If a were consistently lower, this difficulty would not
be so severe and in any case despite a rather low value for P, it is quite possible
that the generalized Pearson type III distribution provides a description of head-
way distributions which is adequate for many purposes.
Figure 8 illustrates the good fit obtained with the semi-random distribu-
tion. The goodness-of-fit test (TABLE IV) yielded an X2 value of 6.80 on 6 degrees
of freedom which corresponds to P = 0.34. The agreement is poorest at head-
ways less than about 3 time units (1.08 sec), and if headways of less than 3 arc
not grouped X2 is 10.98 on 7 degrees of freedom and hence a value of 0.14 IS
obtained for P. In either case the agreement with observed data is acceptable.

TABLE IV
x GOODNESS-OF-FIT TEST OF SEMI-RANDOM DISTRIBUTION, EQUATION 17.

Hea d way Ob serve d Frequency expecte d (Ob - Et

in time units frequency from theory
X
2
=
of 0.3G sec*
b E 0b- E E

:::;;
2 48 54.89 - 6.89 0.86
3
4
132
138
114.20
145.90
+
-
17.80
7 .90
2.77
0.42
5 112 111.38 + 0.62 0 .00
6
7
71
35
66.95
41.26
+
-
4.05
6.26
0 .25
0.95
8
9
28
16
26.13
16.63
+
-
1.87
0.63
0.14
0.02
\
10 9 10.53 - 1.53 0.22
11 4 6.67 - 2.67 1.01
~ 12 16 14.46 + 1.54 0 .16

~ = 6 .80
Number of degrees of freedom = 11 - (4 + 1) = 6.

* See page 17 4 for des criptio n of method of grouping the observe d d ata.

I Voll!lme I, 1962 177

 ROAD TRAli'FIC HEADWAY DISTRIBUTIONS

Very careful consideration was given to the possibility of using the the0-
retically attractive method of maximum likelihood to estimate the parameters of
the various distributions. Because of the unusual grouping of the data and the
mathematical form of the probability density functions, a thorough maximum
likelihood analysis would need to be done numerically and would involve a great
volume of detailed computation. For example, the maximum likelihood esti-
mators for distribution (17) can only be obtained by undertaking a numerical
maximization of a five dimensional function and this in itself would constitute
a substantial project in numerical methods and computer programming. It was
concluded that because it would add nothing to our understanding of traffic flow,
this expensive and time-consuming work could not be justified.
The two most important characteristics of maximum likelihood estimators
are their efficiency, i.e. small standard error, and the fact that the weighted sum
of squares has the X2 distribution. There does not appear to be any published work
on the efficiency of the method of moments for the more important cases we have
studied but with a sample size of 609 a reasonably small variance could be expected,
together with no complications due to biass. Although two observations are less
than 2 t.u. in each case where the distribution contains a scale parameter ex (dis-
tributions (1) and (4)), the moment estimator exceeds 2. This could be the
fault of either the method of estimation used or of the form of the distribution.
As head ways as short as one half t.u. sometimes occur, ex should be of about this
magnitude, and it is most unlikely that the moment estimators would be this much
in error. A preliminary M.L. analysis confirmed this. Consequently it is con-
cluded that, at least in so far as its location parameter is concerned, something
is lacking in these density functions, particularly equation (4). They are in a
sense 'impossible' and add a further element of artificiality to the M.L. analysis
due to the necessity of changing the definition of L at ex = 2.
Nevertheless, possibly only two observations out of 60.9 are affected and
these were grouped with the adjacent frequency for the purpose of doing the
goodness-of-fit tests. These tests were based on the method of moments and
consequently the values for P given in TABLE III should be considered as being
lower limits of the 'true' values. This wiU_not affect the major conclusions of the
X2 analysis. Equations (2), (4) and (5) are clearly unacceptable, equation (1)
appears satisfactory for many purposes and equation (17) cannot be rejected on
the evidence.

FUTURE WORK
The most obvious extension of this work is to test the validity of the semi-
random distribution over a wide range of flow rates. The data employed for
this analysis was observed at a mean flow of 2040 veh/h and it is confidently
anticipated that agreement with the theory will improve at lower volumes.
The four parameters of the semi-random distribution will vary with volume 10 .
For example, as volumes decrease A and cf> should also decrease and () (and possibly
0-) should increase. Equation (19a) -wilr hold, it being r~membeied that 1//J-'1 is

178 PROCEEDINGS
 ROAD TRAFFIC HEADWAY DISTRIBUTIONS

the mean flow-rate. The relationships might be based upon a rational theoretical
basis or they might be empirical. The analogy with fluid mechanics is attractive.
Various judiciously selected parameters such as the Reynolds and Froude numbers
are related empirically to various fluid variables, affording a powerful engineering
tool.
Similar remarks apply to the relationship to speed of the various semi-
random model parameters to speeds. Headways should be grouped according to the
speeds with which they are associated and the parameters e, cr, 1> and A com-
puted . These parameters would then be related to the speeds u at which they
occurred. The parameter e, the expected value of the zone of emptiness, is
probably related to speed and the relationship
.u
e= -YJ ec-
u

suggests itself. This expression is consistent with the spacing-sensitive car-follow--

ing relationship of reference 25 and would follow if the zone of emptiness is de-
fined as the headway between vehicles which are following each other, it being
assumed that the headway between following vehicles is not a deterministic vari-
able but rather a stochastic one, normally distributed with mean and variance
e and cr 2 respectively. The assumption of normality is plausible from general
consideration of the properties and mode of occurrence of the normal distribution
and it has been suggested by NORTH for a somewhat similar variate in his paper2G
on the human transfer function in servo-mechanisms.
Thus for a given speed the probability density function of headways
would be known. If for a given headway, the probability density function of
speeds (it should be bi-modal) were also known, the whole traffic stream could be
built up both theoretically and by simulation. The parameters of this second
probability density function would almost certainly be functions of the (minute)
volume. The minute volumes would have a probability density function related
to the hourly volume.
The semi-random model might be employed with advantage in extending
car-following work because it would allow insights to be gained into the mechanism
of following without the need to identify which vehicles are actually performing
the following task. One could moreover extract car-following information from
routine traffic situations rather than from artificial control experiments .
A great deal of experimental and computational work needs to be done
in relating e, cr, 1> and A to the volume and speed and also to various important
traffic and road conditions . It is also possible that the parameters are related
to each other, e and cr for example might well be mutually proportional. This
work could lead to a fairly comprehensive understanding of a traffic stream.
It should be noted that as cr -J> 0 equation (17) approaches equation (9)
where a = e and f3 = 1/A. Equation (17) is in fact a generalization of equation
(9) and many of the rem<;l.rks of section (7) are applicable to the semi-random
model. In particular l i e can be considered as a type of possible capacity or
service rate, because if the semi-random model is valid the flow rate will rarely

I Volume I, 1962 179'

 R OAD TRA FFIC HE A D WA Y DISTRIB UTI O NS

exceed this value and then only for very short periods of time. For the data used
in this paper 0 = 0.282 t.u. - 1 which is equivalent to 2,820 veh / hour or 47.1
veh/ min. cf> could be considered as a type of 'actual traffic intensity' parameter and
is a good measure of amenity of a traffic facility because it is the proportion of
vehicles significantly influenced by the vehicle in front.
The maximum traffic intensity might be defined as p = O/ fL'l . For the
-data used in this paper fL', = 3.536 t.u. , and 0 = 4.908 t.u. whence p = 0.720.
Distribution (11) might be considered to be the service time distribution. The
best Gamma fit to this distribution is for
8z (3536)2
K = ~ = (1.022)2 = 1197.

Substituting this value in the equation for the mean number in the queue 29
yields

q = (K + 1)p2 = 0.541 L
2K(1-p) I-p
The plot of q versus p exhibits a fairly sharp increase in slope at around
p = 0.70 to p = 0.80. That is, a small increase in p results in a large increase
in q. In other words a small increase in flow results in a large increase in the
number of queueing vehicles with consequent reduction in flow stability and in-
crease in the desire to change lanes. Thought along these lines might lead to (l
rational estimate of design volumes. A good deal of work needs to be done,
however, in providing a fully rational and explicit relationship between queueing
1heory and the semi-random model. Use might be made of existing queueing
results by replacing the normal distribution with the Erlang distribution in the
'semi-random model, and by relating cf> / p to lane-changing frequencies . Indeed,
the adoption of an Erlang or Gamma distributed zone of emptiness might be
advantageous in many ways.
It is quite likely that the semi-random distribution is applicable to inter-
vehicular spacings. That is, the model should be applied instantaneously as well
as locally. The parameters obtained would be related to speed, density and flow-
rate, and to each other. Again the work involved is considerable.
The mode of the semi-random distribution can be obtained from equation
( 17 ) by solving for x the equation
d
dxf(x) = o.
The mode will, of course, be a function of 0, cr, cf> and A and should be
related experimentally to the usual highway and traffic variables.
The task of obtaining the counting distribution associated with the spac-
ing distribution of equation (17) will be undertaken in the future. It is
al so hoped to determine the distribution of delay and absorption capacity of
vehicles entering a semi-random traffic stream. There are, however, certain
fairly severe theoretical problems to be overcome in this regard and some of these
are discussed elsewhere 27

'180 PROC EEDINGS

 ROAD TRAFFIC HEADWAY DISTRIBUTIONS

The semi-random distribution is very easy to simulate on an electronic-

computer. Random numbers can be used to determine whether or not a headway
will be a normal variate or a modified negative exponential variate. If it is a
normal variate one can be generated by adding together other random numbers.
If a modified negative exponential variate is required it can be obtained by adding
together variates from distributions (15) and (16), each of which can be generated
from random numbers. Thus the semi-random model can be used in simulation
work.
The whole task of testing and applying the varying random model remains
to be done. This work is more likely to be applied in air traffic studies. It also'
is readily amenable to simulation.

TOWARDS A COMPREHENSIVE THEORY

If the semi-random model is found to fit headway frequency data over (l
wide range of volumes, something approaching a unified theory of freeway traffic'
flow is at hand. The possibility of obtaining a measure of compatibility between the
semi-random model and both queueing theory and car-following theory is discussed
briefly in the body of the paper. It is possible that a unified theory will draw
upon some of the ideas of hydrodynamics. Hydrodynamic theories emphasize
deterministic relationships because in a fluid the stochastic characteristics of the
atoms of the fluid may be neglected. This is rarely permissable with road traffic.
The semi-random model should permit an assessment to be made 6f the likelihood,.
magnitude and mode of occurrence of the stochastic elements in a traffic stream.
For a discussion of certain aspects of this see FosTER23.
At low flow-rates the semi-random model tends to a fully random model.
If the flow rate is low but varying, a varying random model such as that discussed
previously is appropriate.
As discussed in the body of the paper, the semi-random model is a gene-
ralization of several other theories of gap formation.
Traffic simulation on digital electronic computers cannot be considered to
be a part of traffic theory proper. Frequently, however, a purely theoretical ap-
proach to a given problem is valueless for any of several reasons. It may be
inadequate, it may be of doubtful validity or it may be of a form which does not
readily lead to the solution of problems or to an increase in knowledge. There
can be little doubt that future developments in traffic theory will lean heavily upon
simulation methods and it has been shown that traffic conforming to the semi-
random model is relatively easy to simulate.

CONCLUSIONS
Many theoretical probability density functions have been used to describe
the frequency distribution of road traffic headways. The generalized Pearson
type III distribution (equation 1) and a semi-random distribution (equation 17)
are shown to afford acceptable fits to a limited amount of very high volume free-
way headway frequency data. The best fit was obtained with the semi-random
model and it is most likely that lower volume data would afford better fits. The

/Vo)ume J, 1962 18 r-
 R OAD TR A1"FIC HEADWA Y DISTRIBUTIONS

model appears to be novel, it can be readily related to most existing theories of

traffic flow and it is readily amenable to computer traffic simulation.
A 'varying random' model of traffic flow is postulated and it appears to
be appropriate to low flow rate road traffic or air-traffic conditions.
There is a tendency to negative autocorrelation of successive headways
at very high volumes. This is shown to be consistent with driver behaviour and
possibly of value in predicting flow break-down. It could explain the phenomenon
of possible capacity.

REFERENCES
1. HAIGHT, F . A .
M athematical th eories of road .traffic, Inst. Transp. and Trafl. Eng'ing, Special Repo,rt
UL.C.A. March, 1960.
2. ELDERTON, W. P.
Frequency cur ves and correlation , Cambridge University Press, 1953.
3. ADAMS, W . F .
Road traffic considered as a random time series, J. Inst. Civ. Engrs. , 4: 121 (1936).
4 . WEBSTER, F . V.
Traffic signal setting, D .S .l.R. , Rd . Res. Tech. paper 39 (1958) .
-So NEWELL, G . F.
St atistical analysis of flolV of highway traffic through a signalized intersection, AppJ.
Math. 13: 4 (1956).
,6. GERLOUGH, D . L.
Traffic inputs for simulation on a digital comput er, Proc. Highw. Res. Bd. 38 (1959).
7. PERCHONOK, P. A. and LEVY, S. L.
A pplications of digital simulation techniques to freeway oil-ramp traffic operatiom,
Proc. Highw. Res . Bd ., 39, 506 (1960) .
'8. FORBES, T. W.
Hu m an factors in high way design, operatioll and safety problems, Human Factors 2: 1
(1959 ).
9. HAIGHT, F . A.
Th e generalized Poisson distribution, Annals Inst. Stat. Math. , 11: 2 (1959) .
'10. MAY, A. D. and WAGNER, F. A .
H eadway characteristics and the interrelationships of fundamental characteristics of traffic
flow, Proc. Highw. Res. Bd., 39: 524 (1960).
11. KENDALL, M. G . and STUART, A.
The advanced theory of statistics, Vol. 1, Charles Griffin, London , 1952.
12. A N DERSON, R . L. and BANCROFT, T. A .
Statistical theory in research , McGraw Hill , New York, 1952.
1 3. GONSETH, A . T.
Effectiveness of holland tunnel transitional lighting during winter m onths, Highw. Res.
Bd. Bull. 255 ( 1960 ) .
14. NORMANN, O . K. and others. H igh way Capacit y Manual , Washington , 1950.
15. SCHUHL, A .
Th e pro bability th eory applied to distribution of vehicles on ,two-lan e highways, ENO,
Connecticut, 1955.
16. BLISS, C. I.
Fitting the negative binomial distribution to biological data , Biometrics 9: 2, 176 (1953).
17. GREEN SHIELDS, B. n . and WEIDA , F. M.
Statistics with applicatio n to highw ay traffic analysis, ENO, Connecticut, 1952.

182 PROCEEDINGS
 DISCUSSIONS: ROAD TRAFFIC HEADWAY DISTRIBUTIONS

18. LEUTZBACH, W.
Distribution of time gaps between successive vehicles, Intern. Rd. Safety and TrafL Rev.
5: 3 (1957).
19. TANNER, J. C.
Delays on a two-lane road, J. Roy. Stat. Soc. 23: 1, Series B (1961).
20. MILLER, A. J.
A queueing model of road traffic flow, J. Roy. Stat. Soc. 23: 1 Series B (1961).
21. McFADDEN, J. A.
The axis-crossing intervals of random functions - II, Trans. Inst. Radio Engrs. IT-4:
1, 14 (1958).
22. KENDALL, D. G.
Some problems in .the theory of queues, J. Roy. Stat. Soc. 13: 2, Series B (1951) .
23. FOSTER, J.
An investigation of the hydrodynamic model for traffic flow with particular reference
to the effect of various speed-density relationships, Proc. First Conf. A.R.R.B. (1962).
24. PEARSON, E. S. and HARTLEY, H. O.
Biometrika tables for statisticians, 1, Cambridge u.P. (I 956).
25. GAZIS, D. c., HERMAN, R. and POTTS, R. B.
Car-following theory of steady-state traffic flow, Operations Res . 7: 4 (1959).
26. NORTH, J. D.
The human transfer function in servo systems, Automatic and manual control, Butter-
worth, London, 1952.
'27. MAJOR, N. G. and BUCKLEY, D. J.
Entry .to a traffic stream, Proc. First Conf. A.R.R.B., Canberra, Sept. (1962).
'28. CARSLAW, H. S. and JAEGER, J. C.
Operational methods in applied mathemaTics, a.u.p., London, 1941.
29. MORSE, P. M.
Queues, inventories and maintenance, Wiley, New York, 1958.
30. SHENTON, L. R.
Inequalities for the normal integral, including a new continued fraction, Biometrika,
.41: 177 (1954).
31. JEWELL, W. S.
The properties of recurrent event processes, Operations Res. 8: 4 (1960).

DISCUSSIONS

J. I . TIN D ALL, University of N.S.W. - The writer would like to support BUCKLEY'S
work (paper No.9) towards a more realistic expression for the distribution of headways in a
moving traffic stream, and without checking his work feels sure that his result -using some
combination of random and normal events for the whole range of likely volumes, is the
best discovery so far. The writer is currently studying the distribution of queues in a traffic
stream, for which some study of head ways is essential. The objective is to find a queueing
model for estimating the service rate or capacity of a traffic lane. Measurements have
been made on No. 8 lane of the Sydney Harbour Bridge near the northern pylon. The
headways and speeds of all vehicles were measured for a number of volumes. To obtain
some uniformity of flow in each volume, some quality control was applied. Any period
in which the variance of volumes in shorter periods within it was too high, was rejected.
A higher variance was accepted for smaller volumes but all volumes finally accepted rested
on a smooth curve. These volumes of 163, 444, 700, 1073, 1400, 1474, 1411 and 1332
yeh/ hour were selected. Others induding one of 1515 have not yet been analysed. The speed /
volume curve was ' quite smooth and typical. Speed. was quite insensitive to volumes up to

Volume I, 1962 183

 DISCUSSIONS; ROAD TRAFFIC HEADWAY DIS T RIBUTIONS

TABLE V
Volu:ne veh/ hour 163 444 700 1073 1400 1474 1411 1332
Exponential at % level 10 9 4 - - - - -
Erlang K 1.07 1.07 1.10 1.13 1.53 6.29 7.31 4.49
Erlang at % level 5 9 1 0.1 - - - -
Mean speed 26.1 25.3 25.4 24.9 21.6 13.1 12.6 11.5

the practical capacity. From the shape of the curve, the three volumes 1474, 1411 and 1332
were obviously past the critical density (about 85 veh/ mile). Their speed was markedly. lower'
than the other volumes. No explanation could be found for these volumes although the road
downstream was of higher capacity for some distance and eventually divided into more
lanes. The peak of the curve appeared to be about 1520 veh/ hour at 18 m.p.h.
In queueing theory it is helpful if arrival head ways and/or service times are ran-
domly distributed-i .e. exponential, or a simulated expression-the Erlang distribution. All
the above volumes were compared with exponential and Erlang distributions by the X 2
goodness-of-fit test. The results obtained are shown in TABLE V.
As in a thesis by PAK POY the headways were exponential hlp to the practical capacity.
However, even at 444 veh / hour the difference between observed and exponential vahles was.
apparent in the short headways. For all volumes above 444 veh/ hour the headway distri-
butions commenced from the origin. The headways of all volumes above 700 veh/hour
appeared to have the same shape as the Erlang curve, but the mode was at a higher valhle -
nearer the mean. The headways of all volumes beyond practical capacity tended to the
normal distribution. These figures tend to confirm the author's distribution of a mixture of
regular (normal) and random (exponential) events and the writer would like to see them
tested.

H . J. LEO N G , Department of Main Roads, N .S.W. - The assumption that vehicles.

arrive at random has been accepted by most traffic engineers. For low traffic volumes, this
assumption would be correct but it may not apply when traffic volumes approach the
practical capacity as calculated by the Highway Capacity Manual's empirical method.';' There
had been no known mathematical model which wO]Jld give a better 'goodness of fit' than
the semi-random distribution model introduced by BUCKLEY (paper No.9). In this regard
the author is congratulated for his effort in the introduction of the semi-random headway
distribution .
Although the semi-random distribution was only compared with one set of observed
data, the writer supports the author's view that it would probably fit most of the observed
headway distributions . It is most likely that this distribution would also fit the 'modified'
headway distribution observed at signalized intersections under saturation flow conditions.
From the writer's observations it appears that the modification required is the exclusion of
head ways of the first 4 vehicles after the start of a green signal together with those head-
ways influenced by the presence of commercial vehicles and right-turning vehicles. Figures
9 to 12 provide sets of observed headway distributions in which the effects of starting
delay of commercial vehicles and right-turning vehicles have been excluded. It may be seen
that there is a marked likeness between the shapes of these distributions and the semi-
random distribution curve shown in the author's paper.
The author has not mentioned the effect of commercial vehicles on the theoretical
headway distribution. It is understood that the presence of commercial vehicles would increase
the values of the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th movements which would in turn affect the para-
meters 0, (j and A.

* P. G. PA.K POY, 'The limits of th e poisson distribution in road traffic calculation,'

M. Tec h. Thes is, University of N.S.W.

184 PROCEEDINGS
 DTscussrONS: ROAD TRAFFIC HEADWAY DISTRIBUTIONS

OIUK"HloUl(

:r--L I I t ("IIO( ....' "

I -
,

I
1I --1----
-
- ~
z
I
.- - .
rI I I
z

Iml I
J
! iml1l 13 .-

~ ~ I ' I U~~i,. .~
f----
~jm ,. II'"IIU'"Idm~
,n
'"
ImlID m .m ..
,n
'" '" n~ 'n
~
n~ m
.1m!
'" '"
I..
.n
'" m ,.
Fig . 9 Fig. 10

L~ _II I
ctH1J1t ~
I

I
f----j
I

I
r-- I

\
-----,I i
I
....:.
I
I
I
I
~
. I I
i
I
.
I~ I
"
~I~ 1111Imh;l~... n
'" '"
...I ..
.
..I I ! iii
Ilm~ ..
\00

In
I

. Ii U~ .~
. 111
U\ In 1 ft

Fig . 11 Fig . 12

From the semi-random model it is seen that the distribution would approach 'normal'
as parameter </> approaches unity. This would represent the condition when the traffic volume
(lfl the road is so heavy that drivers are endeavouring to drive with what they consider

to be the minimum headway. It is suggested that the flow rate obtained from 11 e under tlus
condition would be comparable to the 'basic' capacity rather than 'possible' capacity as
recommended by the author, since such condition would never be reached in reality but may
be aimed at as an ideal.
In discussing possible applications of the semi-random distribution to highway capacity
considerations, the author suggests that the parameter e may be used for determination of
the possible capacity (or service rate) of a given facility . Once the possible capacity is
determined for a particular highway, one would be led to think that this value should be
constant. This however is at variance with equations 19 (a) to (d) in which it is indicated
that the parameter (J is dependent on the observed traffic volume on the road . Or in other
words it varies as the mean headway varies.
Study of the inter-relationship between e, IT, </> and A, in equation 19 (a) to (d) would
certainly give some most interesting results and would possibly lead to a better understanding
of the physical nature of these parameters. With the increasing use of digital electronic
computers, the complication of the semi-random distribution would not present itself as a
problem, and it is considered that further verification of the validity of this mathematical
model would be a step forward towards better understanding of the traffic phenomenon
on the road.

II Volume I, 1962
 C LOSU RE : ROA.D TRAFFI C HEA DWA Y DISTRIBU'fIONS

AUTHOR'S CLOSURE

To J. I. TIN D ALL and H. J . LEO N G-

The author would like to thank. both DNDALL and LEONG for their valuable
contributions. It is interesting to note that in studying the queueing characteristics of a traffic
stream DNDALL has seen fit to make a close study of head ways. His results emphasize the
diminishing validity of both the negative exponential and the Erlang (gamma) distribution as,
volumes increase, and it IS interesting to note that for the best Erlang fits K is so close to
unity that the Erlang distribution is almost an exponential distribution. Whence it might
reascnably be concluded, at least on the evidence of DNDALL'S data, that the Erlang distribution
is only satisfactory for the trivial case K = 1, The K values computed by DNDALL are given
by K = J.L2 / u\ which yields the result that K - Y2 is the coefficient of variation, Thus, it
would appear from TABLE V that the coefficient of variation has a sharp discontinuity and
this could be a fact of considerable importance,

As TINDALL has pointed out It IS necessary to achieve volume homogeneity before

attempting to analyse headway data , The author's method of doing this has been different
from and somewhat more severe than DNDALL'S and it would perhaps be desirable to under-
take something like the minute volume on TINDALL'S data classification outlined in the paper
before committing computer and programming time to the fitting of the semi-random
distribution.

LEONG'S work on intersection capacity has involved a study of startling head ways, and.
these might be amenable to description by the semi-random distribution. At this stage,
however, the author is confining his work to free-flowing traffic in order to avoid the effects.
of possible transient, unstable or dynamic influences, important though these are.

There is a good case for likening 11 /} to the possible capacity rather than to the basic
capacity, although it is, strictly speaking, identical with neither. The parameter (J could be
expected to change with changing road and traffic conditions and is thus a function of the
prevailin g rather than an ideal situation. One would expect (J to vary with speed but not with
volume, and this latter invariability, if .it is shown to exist, would be quite consistent with
equations 19 (a ) to (d) because J.L'" J.L'2, J.L'3, J.L'" U, 'A. and could all change and still leave
/} constant.

ToN . S . G U E R I N (Group Reporter) - Since WrItIng the paper the author has:
realized that equation (1 7) , the probability density function of headways for the semi-random
model (which might perhaps be more aptly termed a semi-Poisson model) can be stated more
generally in the form

I(x) = .pg(x) + (1 - 4g*().)- l).e - Ax J: g(z)dz

186 PROCEEDINGS.
 CLOSURE: ROAD TRAFFI C HEADWAY DISTRIBUTIONS

where g(x) is the probability density function of the zone of emptiness. The Laplace transform
'of f(x) is

f*( ) = .p *()+ "(l-.p)g*(A + s)

s g s (s + ")g*(")

:the notation adopted for the Laplace transforms being

a*(s) = J~ e- "'''a(x)dx.

I Volume I, 1962
187