FactCheck Q&A: Are A-levels what they used to

be?

By Martin Williams-17 AUG 2017

Thousands of students have just received their A-level results and discovered
whether they are off to university.

More than 26 per cent of entries were awarded an A* or A; an increase of 0.5

percentage points from last year.

But with so many students getting good grades and going to university, is the
whole experience worth the same as it once was?
FactCheck looked into the details.

Are A-levels worth less?

For years, there have been concerns about grade inflation. With more people
getting good grades, are A-levels enough to get into a good university?

The system used to be very different.

Between 1963 and 1987, the proportion of pupils who could get each grade was
fixed. Guidelines said that only the top 10 per cent should get an A, no matter
what mark they got.
This was potentially helpful to universities, as it made it easier to pick out the
highest-performing students.

But it also meant grades could be highly variable between different years. The
spread of grades would be about the same each year, even if one cohort of
students was actually far better than the other.

And if lots of pupils had performed to a similar level, the bands between grades
could be extremely small. In one exam in 1982, there was a difference of just
eight marks between a D and a B.
So while it may be possible to compare the market value of A-levels, the actual
results themselves are completely incomparable.

The current system has seen a significant rise in the proportion of top grades
being awarded, as this graph from an academic study shows.
But does this mean that A-levels are worth less?

In 2010, the government introduced a new A* grade for A-levels. The aim was to
ensure that top grades dont become meaningless, and allow universities and
employers to differentiate between candidates more easily.

Out of the A-level results released today, 8.3 per cent were graded A*. This figure
has remained very stable since it was introduced (in 2010, it was 8.1 per cent).

This figure is also very close to the percentage of entries that were graded A in
previous decades. For instance, 8.9 per cent of exams achieved an A in 1982.

So for the time being, at least A* seems to have become the new A, in terms
of its proportional value.

But theres another side to this as well: the number of people applying to
university has gone up dramatically. This graph shows the shift that has happened
even just over the last ten years.

More than 718,000 people applied to university last year, compared with 506,000
in 2006. The gap between applications and acceptances has risen by 59 per cent.

Provisional figures for 2017 show a drop in applications, but the broader trend
over the years shows a big increase.

As more students apply, universities can be pickier about who they chose. And if
we compare this to the stable proportions of A* grades that are being awarded,
it could suggest that they are actually becoming more valuable.

Of course, the value that universities chose to attribute to A-level grades is

another question, and will vary between institutions. But on the face of it, it
seems top A-level grades are not worth less now than they once were.

How much have tuition fees increased by?

Twenty years ago, there were no tuition fees.

They were first introduced by Tony Blair in 1997, and came into force the
following year. But the fees were waived for the poorest students.

By 2012, the government had raised the cost to 9,000, with further increases
since.

Student loans cover the cost, but repayments begin once graduate earnings meet
a set lower limit.

Do todays students get less maintenance support?

The overall amount of maintenance support has gone up in real terms.

Student who started in 2014/15 get around 5,000, on average, compared to

about 2,500 in 1991/2.
But theres a catch. Back then, the vast majority of maintenance support was
given in the form of grants, which did not have to be repaid.

Now days, grants make up less than half of the total figures, while loans make up
a far higher proportion.

So although students are now getting more maintenance support in the short-
term, it is saddling them with debt.

Have graduate wages gone down?

Since the financial crash, graduate wages have slumped. However, this followed a
peak in the 2000s.
When we compare current graduate wages to 20 years ago, there is not a great
deal of difference.

The graph below, from the IFS, shows how median hourly wages have changed
over the years among people aged 25-29.
(This means most of the people represented in the figures for each year actually
graduated a few years earlier, so this does not give a fully up-to-date picture).

Does a degree boost wages as much as it used to?

There has not been a significant change in the so-called wage premium that
university gives you.
These IFS figures show the ratio of the median wage of university graduates, to
the median wage of non-graduates, by age cohort.
In their early twenties, the earnings of graduates from more recent cohorts is
slightly closer to those of non-graduates but the gap has remained broadly the
same.

In other words, a degree boosts your salary by around the same proportions as
before.

However, its important to note that this graph does not include people who have
graduated in the last few years. The most recent cohort included are now in their
late twenties, so it is possible that the wage premium has dropped further since
this group graduated.
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