The Infinite Actuary Exam 1/P Online Seminar

A.1. Fundamentals of Probability Solutions

Last updated November 23, 2015

1. Let A be those buying auto insurance and H those who buy homeowners insurance. Then
P[A] = 2P[H]
0.7 = P[A H] = P[A] + P[H] P[AH]
0.7 = 2P[H] + P[H] 0.2
P[H] = 0.3
P[HA0 ] = P[H] P[AH] = 0.3 0.2 = 0.1

A H

0.4 0.2 0.1

The Venn diagram is

2. Let F be those who buy fire insurance and T those who buy theft insurance. We want
P[F T ] P[F T ] = (P[F ] + P[T ] P[F T ]) P[F T ]
= 0.4 + 0.3 0.2 0.2
= 0.3

F T

0.2 0.2 0.1

The Venn diagram is

3. (A B)0 = A0 B 0 , so we have 0.3 = P[AB 0 ] and 0.4 = P[A0 B 0 ]. Adding gives us 0.7 = P[B 0 ], and thus
P[B] = 1 0.7 = 0.3

A B

0.3

0.4

4. Let L denote the event that the trip requires lab work, and S the event that it results in a referral to
a specialist. We are given:
P[(L S)0 ] = 0.35 P[L S] = 1 0.35 = 0.65

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 P[S] = 0.30 P[L] = 0.40

and we want P[L S]

P[L S] = P[L] + P[S] P[L S]

0.65 = 0.40 + 0.30 P[L S]
P[L S] = 0.05

5. We are given 0.7 = P[A B] = P[A] + P[B] P[AB] and 0.9 = P[A B 0 ] = P[A] + P[B 0 ] P[AB 0 ].
Summing gives us 1.6 = 2P [A] + P [B] + P [B 0 ] (P[AB] + P[AB 0 ]). But P[B] + P[B 0 ] = 1 and P[AB] +
P[AB 0 ] = P[A], so the right hand side is P[A] + 1. Subtracting 1 gives us P[A] = 0.6 .

Or, 0.7 = P[A B] so 1 0.7 = 0.3 = P[A0 B 0 ], and P[A B 0 ] = 0.9 so 1 0.9 = 0.1 = P[A0 B]. Adding
those gives us 0.4 = P[A0 ] and P[A] = 1 0.4 = 0.6 This method is easier to follow if you draw the Venn

A B

0.1

0.3
diagram:

6. Let T denote the event that a patient visits a physical therapist, and C the event that a patient visits
a chiropractor. We are given:

P[T C] = 0.22
P[(T C)0 ] = 0.12 P[T C] = 1 0.12 = 0.88
P[C] = 0.14 + P[T ]

and we want P[T ]

P[T C] = P[C] + P[T ] P[T C]

0.88 = 0.14 + P[T ] + P[T ] 0.22
P[T ] = 0.48

7. A0 B 0 means that it is either not in A or not in B, which includes everything except AB (i.e.,
A0 B 0 = (A B)0 ), so P[A0 B 0 ] = 1 P[AB] = 1 0.2 = 0.8

8. Let S be the event that a student took the SAT and A the event that a student took the ACT.
We know P[AS] = 0.3 and P[S] = 0.75, so P[A0 S] = 0.75 0.3 = 0.45 and P[AS 0 ] = 0.4 0.3 = 0.1.
Combining these gives us 0.45 + 0.10 = 0.55

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 G .14 .08 B
.12 .11
= 0.06

.02 .08 .04

.19 .14 = .05

S
9.

We want the probability that someone watches none of these sports, so we want

1 0.12 0.06 0.11 0.02 0.08 0.04 0.05 = 0.52

10. There are 3,000 young policy holders. 1,320 are male, leaving 1,680 young female policy holders.
There are 1,400 young married policyholders, 600 of whom are male, so there are 800 young female married
policyholders, leaving 1,680 800 = 880 young female single policyholders.

11. Using the fact that R and H are mutually exclusive, and then given properties (i), (iv), (v) and (ii)
gives the following Venn diagram:

A
H
0.35 x 0.11 1 = 0.35 x + 0.11 + 0.29 + x + y + 0.17
1 = 0.92 + y, 0.08 = y
0.29 0.17
2(x + y) = 0.46 x by given (iii)
x y 2x + 0.16 = 0.46 x

R x = 0.10

12. P[K] = 3P[T ]

1
P[Q] = (P[K] + P[T ])
4
1
= (3P[T ] + P[T ]) = P[T ]
4
1 = P[K] + P[Q] + P[T ]
= 3P[T ] + P[T ] + P[T ]
P[T ] = 0.2
P[K Q] = P[K] + P[Q] = 4P[T ] = 0.80

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 C
N
25 3 7

2 4 1

3
A

18 H
13. The Venn diagram we get is

Subtracting the pieces we have solved for from 100 gives

100 25 3 7 2 4 1 3 18 = 37

14. Let G denote those who read the Globe, H those who read the Herald, and P those who read the
Phoenix.
G H
.25 .09 x 0.06 .29 .09 y

x 0.03 y

.4 .03 x y
0.25 P

We want x + y, and using that everything sums to 1 gives

1 = (0.25 0.09 x) + x + 0.06 + 0.03 + (0.29 0.09 y) + y

+ 0.25 + (0.4 0.03 x y)
= 1.07 x y
x + y = 0.07

15. In general, all we know about probabilities is that they can range from 0 to 1. To get restrictions
on P[A B] we want an equation that combines P[A B], along with the things that we know, namely
P[A] and P[B], and gives us a probability. In particular, we can say that

0 P[A B] 1
P[A B] = P[A] + P[B] P[AB]
0 0.7 + 0.6 P[AB] 1
1.3 P[AB] 0.3
1.3 P[AB] 0.3

That gives us a useful lower bound of P[AB] 0.3

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Note that this bound can be obtained if P[AB] = 0.3, P[AB 0 ] = 0.4, P[A0 B] = 0.3 and P[A0 B 0 ] = 0.

16. The problem with the approach we used in the previous problem is that it gave the upper bound
of P[AB] 1.3, which we already knew since it is a probability and hence no more than 1. But we also
know that AB A and AB B so P[AB] P[A] and P[AB] P[B]. That gives us P[AB] 0.6 and
P[AB] 0.7. Taking the most restrictive of those gives us the maximum possible value of P[AB] of 0.6

This upper bound can be realized if B A.

17. Let C, T and S denote the event of being a car, train, and spaceship respectively. We are told
P[C] = 2P[T ], so P[T ] = (0.5)P[C]. Likewise, P[S] = 2(P[C] + P[T ]) = 2(1 + 0.5)P[C] = 3P[C]. Since
the total probability is 1, and these events are disjoint, we have 1 = P[T ] + P[C] + P[S] = 4.5P[C], so
P[C] = 2/9

18. You could do it by explicitly listing all the possibilities. Alternatively, there are 5 numbers in
the set that are divisible by 5, 12 that are even, and 2 (10 and 20) that are both, so P[even] = 12/25,
P[divisible by 5] = 5/25 and P[both] = 2/25, so P[even or divisible by 5, but not both] = (12 + 5 2
2)/25 = 13/25

19. Let A denote those who own an automobile and H those who own a house. Then P[A] = 0.6,
P[H] = 0.3, and P[AH] = 0.2. We want P[A H] P[AH] = (0.6 + 0.3 0.2) 0.2 = 0.5

C D

20.

P[A] + P[B] + P[C] + P[D] = P[A B C D] + P[AD] + P[AC] + P[BC] + P[BD]

0.7 + 0.6 = 0.9 + P[AD] + P[AC] + P[BC] + P[BD]
0.4 = P[AD] + P[AC] + P[BC] + P[BD]
P[exactly 1 of the 4 events] = 0.9 0.4 = 0.5

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 F G

L x y x

3y 2y

S 2x 2x + 5y 2x + y

21.

From (iii), we know that L and S are disjoint, hence they are non-overlapping sets in our Venn diagram.
Likewise, F and G are also disjoint.

From (v) and (vi), let x be the number who take French and Latin, so 2x is the number who take Spanish
and French and x is the number who take German and Latin.

Let y be the number who take Latin only. (iv) tells us that the number who take German only is 2y, and
(vii) tells us that the total number who take German and Spanish equals the number who take Latin,
which is 2x + y from our diagram.

We now see that 3x + 3y take German, so from (ii), we also have 3x + 3y who take French. 3x take French
plus another language, so 3y take French only. The number who take Spanish is 2(x+2y+2x+y) = 6x+6y,
so 6x + 6y 2x (2x + y) = 2x + 5y take Spanish only.

Finally, twice as many take German as Latin, so 2(2x + y) = (3x + 3y) and so x = y. There are 20x who
take at least one language, and 7x who take more than 1, so P[more than 1 language] = 7x/(20x) = 0.35

F ire F lood

T 2z x y

2x .05 0.1

E z w y

22.

From (i), we can draw T and E as disjoint, but need to keep some overlap between Fire and Flood.
Since no one has 3 coverages, that overlap is outside of both T and E, hence the basic shape of our Venn
diagram.

Let x be T only, so 2x is fire only by (iii). Let y be flood and T , so flood and E is also y (by iv). Let z
be fire and E, so 2z is fire and T by (v). Finally, 0.35 = P[E] so P[E only] = w = 0.35 y z

We can then get the system of equations

0.53 = 2x + x + 0.1 + 0.35 y z, 0.08 = 3x y z

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 0.35 = 2z + 2x + z + 0.05, 0.30 = 3z + 2x
1 = 3x + 2z + y + 0.5, 0.50 = 3x + y + 2z

from (ii), (vii), and the fact that all the probabilities sum to 1. Solving gives x = 0.09

23. One approach is to draw a Venn diagram for each combination and compare. It turns out that the
(i) and (ii) are the same as the original expression, so the answer is A and the Venn diagram for those

A B

C
is

Expression (iii) is different since it also includes everything outside of A B C.

24. P[A B] P[A B] = (P[A] + P[B] P[AB]) P[AB] = 1.6 2P[AB] so it is maximized when
P[AB] is minimized. Since 1 P[A B] = P[A] + P[B] P[AB] = 1.6 P[AB], we have P[AB] 0.6
and so the minimum of our quantity is 1.6 2 0.6 = 0.4

25. One approach to problems like this is to let one die be red, one blue (so we can tell them apart),
list all 36 cases, and count.

Using our probability rules, there are 11 ways to get at least one 6, and 3 ways to roll an 8 without a 6
(red 3 and blue 5, or both 4, or red 5 and blue 3). Since those are disjoint, we can sum the probabilities
for a final answer of (11/36) + (3/36) = 14/36 .

A 0.3 0.1 B
0.1 0.1
= 0.2

0.2 0.1 0.1

0.1
C
26.

From the Venn diagram, we see the answer is 0.9

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 A 0.3 0.1 B
0.1 0.1
= 0.2

0.2 0.1 0.1

0.1
C
27.

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