TARBELA RESERVOIR OPERATIONS AND

RELEASES
BY

DR. Shahid Ahmad

Tarbela is a hydropower dam, where irrigation requirements dictate power generation.

The priority of irrigation over power generation for reservoir operation criteria is an indication of
integration of the dam with the IBIS.

Based on the irrigation demands, forecasted river inflows and available storage capacities,
reservoir operation studies have been carried out to develop the reservoir operation criteria in
the form of rule curves. This process was initiated with commissioning of Mangla reservoir in
1968. For Tarbela, it was contained in the special report by project consultants entitled
Procedures for First Filling of the Reservoir in Summer 1974.

The first filling of Tarbela reservoir started on schedule in July 1974. With flow
passing through the tunnels, one of the diversion intake gates got stuck during operation and
resulted in the collapse of about 60 m length of Tunnel No. 2 and collapse of part of the
hillside. The repair took six months. The emptying of the reservoir following this tunnel
collapse forced the unsymmetrical operation of the outlet gates on both tunnels # 3 and 4,
which damaged the stilling basin. This damage was discovered in 1975 when outlet gates
were used during repairs to tunnel #1. Later on, minor difficulties were observed until
satisfactory operation in the spring 1977. The reservoir operation rules under strategies of
usable capacity above lowest elevation of 396 m and between 427 and 457 m were tested
during 1976-77. Later on Tarbela was integrated into IBIS and its operation criteria alongwith
Mangla were prepared by the operating agency of WAPDA for filling and draw- down
seasons. This furnished a guide for actual subsequent operations.

Based on the experience acquired during the years 1974-84 and the reservoir operation
criteria, annual reservoir operation procedures were presented by TAMS in the Project
Completion Report of 1984. In addition, reservoir drawdown computations were made to
address any emergency. Since then, Tarbela reservoir is being operated as part of the system
on the basis of prescribed operation criteria. The storage capacity has been estimated almost
annually since the start of the reservoir operation.

Maximum conservation level of 473 m for Tarbela is generally achieved around 20th
August every year. Filling criteria is based on safety principles and the reservoir is filled at an
average rate of about 3-m/day upto the elevation of 460 m. After attaining this level, the
allowable rise is about 0.3 m/day. However, during the low flow periods, after attaining the level
of 466 m, the allowable rise is around 0.6 m/day. For seasonal operation criterion, 10-daily
operation of reservoir is evaluated considering estimated flows of Indus at Tarbela and Kabul at
Nowshera; provincial water allocations at the canal head; systems' gains and losses; and other
operational requirements. During operations, provinces prepare and submit their indents of water
requirement to the regulating agency (previously WAPDA and now the Indus River System
Authority-IRSA, which form the basis for actual releases from the storage.

Releases from Tarbela

At the planning stage, storage releases from Tarbela dam were predicted and further
refined in the Project Completion Report of 1984. These predicted releases from Tarbela dam
were based on the consideration of the gradual sedimentation of the reservoir (Table 1).

Actual releases were in line with the predicted releases during the first five years
(1975-80) operation of the Tarbela reservoir. Afterwards, the actual releases were more than
the predicted except during the period of 1990-92 where a slight decline was observed. An
increase of 19 and 22% in actual releases was observed during the periods of 1975-90 and
1990-98, respectively (Table 1). This increase in actual releases was a good indicator of the
improved operational performance of the reservoir since completion of Tarbela.
Table 1. Predicted and Actual Storage Releases from Tarbela Dam
Period Annual Releases from Tarbela Dam (MAF)
Predicted Actual
1975-80 8.5 8.4
1980-85 7.9 10.2
1985-90 7.3 9.5
1990-92 6.7 6.2
1992-94 6.4 8.1
1994-96 6.1 7.0
1996-98 5.8 9.2
Average 1975-90 7.9 9.4
Average 1990-98 6.2 7.6
Source: a) TAMS (1984); b) Survey and Hydrology, OM&M, TDP, WAPDA, 1999.

Releases from Tarbela dam are dictated by water allocations made for provinces
initially as per planned use criteria and later on as per Water Allocation Accord. The Water
Allocation Accord values represent agreed indicator of provincial allocations as per arbitrary
total value with some planned developments. Power generation is incidental to releases for
irrigation requirement which is a priority.

All major floods are routed at the maximum conservation level of 473 m through the
spillways and outlets.

Effect of Tarbela in Attenuating Flood Peaks

In the planning phase, there were no specific predictions made for attenuating flood
peaks in the Indus basin after commissioning the Tarbela. Therefore, Tarbela dam was not
designed for flood management. However, within the design limitations and management
procedures followed, the Tarbela reservoir provides limited flood peaks attenuation. The
prevailing low to very high flood limits below Tarbela varies between 7,085 to 22,671 m3/sec.
The valley immediately downstream of Tarbela can take high discharges safely without causing
extensive damage. It is, however, desirable to temporarily hold Indus flood peaks in reservoir
and then affect their controlled subsequent release to prevent synchronisation with peaks of other
tributaries at downstream locations. On the other hand, safety of dam is warranted at all costs.
For this purpose, the design criteria for flood routing through Tarbela reservoir is based on three
elements. Firstly, all major floods are routed at the maximum conservation level of 473m
through the spillways having capacity of 42,225 m3/sec. Secondly, design flood of 50,244 m3/sec
be routed through the existing outlet facilities with a nominal surcharge of 0.6m above the
maximum conservation level of 473m. Thirdly, probable maximum flood of 60,276 m3/sec is
handled by various outlets with a surcharge of about 2.1 m above the conservation level, still
having a free board of about 2.4m to top embankment elevation of 477m.

Reservoir filling criteria developed by WAPDA from safety considerations provide

limited flood regulation. Maximum allowed changes in reservoir levels are limited to 3 m per
day up to elevation 460 m. Above elevation of 460 m the filling criterion is 0.3 m/day. If
monsoon is weak, then beyond 463 m it is 0.6 m/day duly watching the behaviour of the
instruments.

Ensuring the availability of catchment information at Tarbela and using flood routing
procedures, and simultaneously having information about the inflows from downstream
tributaries i.e. Kabul, Soan and Kurram rivers and Panjnad discharge before its confluence with
Indus, flood peaks can be somewhat attenuated at Tarbela and later at Chashma to avoid
incidence of high peaks in downstream locations. Though in many years outflow peaks are
higher than the inflow peaks, these were intentionally lagged to avoid synchronisation with peaks
at downstream river locations of Chashma, Taunsa, Guddu and off-course location of Panjnad.
Some relevant data of peak reservoir inflows/outflows is given in Table 2.

Table 2. Peak Inflows and Outflows at Tarbela Dam

Period Peak Inflow Peak Outflow
Date Discharge (m3/sec) Date Discharge (m3/sec)
1975-79 16-7-1977 12,356 14-7-1979 13,376
1980-84 6-8-1983 10,769 13-8-1982 13,801
1985-89 31-7-1989 14,453 31-7-1989 14,076
1990-94 10-9-1992 14,736 10-9-1992 14,796
1995-98 25-7-1995 14,028 27-8-1998 13,339
Source: Flood Management Manual, TDP Monitoring Organisation, 1999.

Flood regulation is, therefore, an incidental aspect of Tarbela while the most important
element is assured impounding in the reservoir to use stored water in following low flow periods.
Filling of the reservoir is accomplished based on 'Rule Curve' criteria evolved from estimated
inflows and irrigation requirement. During actual filling of the reservoir, Rule Curve is
followed as far as possible with incidental flood regulation within this envelope. However, it
does not eventually make much of an impact on flood situation except for occasional damping of
high peak during the filling season.

Downstream Benefits of Controlling Floods

Floods in the Indus Basin occurred in the years of 1929, 1950, 1955 to 1959, 1973
(PACID - 1997) and 1975, 1976, 1978, 1981, 1988 and 1992, 1993). Total monetary loss since
1947 has been estimated at Rs. 78 billion and loss of 7530 persons. Basic loss is to irrigation,
drainage and communication infrastructure, industrial installations and agriculture. There is
tremendous loss to small-scale private property, which is seldom accounted for and
compensated. Assistance is provided to affectees on donation basis. Above all, the loss of human
life and suffering cannot be translated into monetary terms. Therefore, even incidental or
manipulated showing of very high flood peaks (as in 1995) through Tarbela could significantly
contribute to avoiding of synchronisation on the downstream critical locations.
Planning for flood control in the Indus Basin was started since 1861. The Federal Government in
1973 entrusted the responsibility of flood management to Flood Control Committee instead of
the Provincial Irrigation Departments. It was in fact an arrangement to co-ordinate the provincial
efforts. In 1977, Federal Flood Commission was constituted to formulate flood management and
protection plans at national level. For the purpose of flood forecasting, the National Flood
Forecasting Bureau was established at Lahore and all federal and provincial organisations work
with it for real time flood management.