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ISBN 938637049-2
: 978-93-86370-49-5
9 789386 370495
Pre-Election Insight Madhya Pradesh : 2013 - 2014
ElectionsinIndia.com i
Editor & Director
Dr. R.K. Thukral
Research Editor
Dr. Shafeeq Rahman
ISBN : 978-93-86370-49-5
Price : Rs.5500/-
Printed in India
An Analysis of Assembly Constituencies
Election Results of
MADHYA PRADESH
for Assembly Election 2013 & Assembly
Segment of Parliamentary Election 2014
Pre-Election Insight Madhya Pradesh : 2013 - 2014
iv ElectionsinIndia.com
Pre-Election Insight Madhya Pradesh : 2013 - 2014
PREFACE
Madhya Pradesh, the second largest state in India by area is nick named as the heart of India due to its
geographical location in the country. The forthcoming assembly election 2018 of Madhya Pradesh would
also be a heart or central space towards the next general election 2019. The unique political feature of the
Madhya Pradesh is bipolarity where its entire politics mainly revolves around the INC and the BJP from the
very beginning. The present ruling party of the Madhya Pradesh, BJP is leaving no stone unturned to retain
power for the fourth consecutive term. During these three terms the confidence level of the BJP remains
robust in Madhya Pradesh, specifically after a decisive victory in the municipal polls held in 2017. On the
other hand, after three defeats in the assembly elections since 2003, the INC in Madhya Pradesh has
planned to start campaign early before the 2018 polls. The INC is planning to allure the voters by highlighting
the severe anti-incumbency sentiment of last fifteen years rule of the BJP and also to expose the damages
made by the ruling government due to various scams like Vyapam scam etc. Every election is full of surprises
so which party will succeed to allure their voters would be decided clearly only after the final verdict.
Most of the time it is observed that the demographic composition of a constituency comprising its population
by religious group, caste and literacy therein, reservation nature of the constituency and its location in rural
or urban areas affects the election results significantly. The importance of the election data can never be
neglected since every political party, pressure group, political analyst, political scholars and individual are
interested in the election results so that they can easily chalk out the weak and strong regions of the political
parties, candidate performance in their constituency, impact of demographic profiles, loss and gains of
legislative seats, vote difference and swings of votes among the contesting political parties.
This report has been made by keeping into consideration the usefulness of analysis of the past election
result with linking of socio-religious profile of AC arises in a wider prospective in the contemporary era for
the pre election readiness by the analysis of previous election results. In it thematic maps has been used
to put up a detail insight report of the state assembly election results and the assembly segments of the
parliamentary election since these maps are recognised as the most excellent method to present the sea
of information at a glance. The unique feature of this report is its notable attempt to analyse the variables of
the last assembly result 2013 and the assembly segment in Parliamentary election 2014 comparatively, so
that the readers can have a crystal clear picture of the changing situations of the Madhya Pradesh elections
in the forthcoming Assembly election 2018.
This report of analysis is divided into nine chapters, leading from the basic features of Assembly constituencies,
demographic profile of the state, electoral features, election results and analysis of results, vote difference
and swings, state level time series comparison, top ten ranking of assembly constituencies and candidates
and the supporting datasheets.
This report is a reader oriented one and mainly aimed at serving as a pre-election reference book which
would be resourceful for politicians, policy makers, researchers, psephologists, media professionals and
academia that have interest in election politics of Indian states.
ElectionsinIndia.com v
Pre-Election Insight Madhya Pradesh : 2013 - 2014
RR Turnout :-
YY Madhya Pradesh voters turnout was 61.60% in 2014 Parliamentary Election, as compared with 72.07% in 2013 Assembly
Election.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, maximum voters turnout was 81.07% in Saunsar AC under Chhindwara PC and Malhargarh
(SC) AC has 86.20% in 2013 Assembly Election.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, minimum voters turnout was 40.34% in Gohad (SC) AC under Bhind (SC) PC and Jobat (ST)
AC has 49.41% in 2013 Assembly Election.
YY As much as 56.58% of female and 66.12% of male voters in 2014 Parliamentary Election, as compared with 70.09% of
female and 73.86% of male voters in 2013 Assembly Election exercised their franchise.
YY Assembly Election 2013 have seen the highest voters-turnout in the state since first assembly election with 72.07% of the
electorate casting vote. The previous highest was 69.28% recorded in 2008 Assembly Election.
YY In the Assembly Election held in 2013, voters turnout was 72.07%. In absolute numbers, out of the total 48121301 electors,
29617659 people cast their vote in 2014 Parliamentary Election.
RR Candidates :-
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, the total 378 candidates contested the election as compared with 2583 candidates in
2013 Assembly Election.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, the maximum number of 28 candidates contested from Bhopal PC while maximum
number of 32 candidates contested from Mehgaon AC in 2013 Assembly Election.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, the minimum number of 6 candidates contested from Rajgarh PC while the minimum
number of 2 candidates contested from Pansemal (ST) AC in 2013 Assembly Election.
RR Election Results :-
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, the maximum number of 139308 votes secured by Alok Sanjar (BJP) in Govindpura AC
under Bhopal PC as compared with 133669 votes in 2013 Assembly Election by Ramesh Mendola (BJP) in Indore-2 AC.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, the minimum number of 17 votes secured by a SaVP candidate Mukesh Kumar Bansal in
Bhopal Madhya AC under Bhopal PC as compared with 46 votes secured by an Independent candidate Ravindra Singh
Urf Bablu Bhadoriya in Ater AC in 2013 Assembly Election.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, the minimum number of 34583 votes secured by a winner Anoop Mishra (BJP) in Dimani
AC under Morena PC as compared with 29733 votes in 2013 Assembly Election by Choudhary Mukesh Singh Chaturvedi
(BJP) in Mehgaon AC.
YY Govindpura AC under Bhopal PC with 104109 votes (Winner 139308 votes, Runner-up 35199 votes) has the maximum
winning margin in 2014 Parliamentary Election as compared to Indore-2 AC with 91017 votes (Winner- 133669 votes,
Runner-up- 42652 votes) in 2013 Assembly Election.
YY Gandhwani (ST) AC under Dhar (ST) PC with 111 votes (Winner 56279 votes, Runner-up 56168 votes) has the minimum
vi ElectionsinIndia.com
Pre-Election Insight Madhya Pradesh : 2013 - 2014
winning margin in 2014 Parliamentary Election as compared to Surkhi AC with 141 votes (Winner 59513 votes, Runner-
up 59372 votes) in 2013 Assembly Election.
YY More than 3.9 lakh voters, (1.3%) chose NOTA in 2014 Parliamentary Election and in 42 Assembly constituencies, NOTA
were the third choice of voters, whereas in 2013 Assembly Election 6.4 lakh voters, (1.9%) chose NOTA and in 62 Assembly
constituencies, NOTA were the third choice of voters.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, 29 candidate won among 94 candidates fielded by National parties as compared to 227
won among 789 candidates in 2013 Assembly Election.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, not a single candidate won among 158 candidates fielded by state parties and un-
recognised registered parties as compared to not a single candidate won among 704 candidates fielded by state
parties and un-recognised registered parties in 2013 Assembly Election.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, not a single candidate won among 126 Independent candidates contested as compared
with 3 won among 1090 Independent candidates contested in 2013 Assembly Election.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, 378 candidates contested the Election and an average number of contestants per seat
were 13 as compared with 2583 candidates contested in Assembly Election 2013 and an average contestants per seat
were 11 contestants.
RR Polarity :-
YY In 2013 Assembly Election, Single-party dominated ACs were 19, out of which 15 & 4 seats won by BJP and INC respectively.
While amongst 53 single-party dominated ACs in 2014 Parliamentary Election, all 53 seats won by BJP.
YY In 2013 Assembly Election, the numbers of Bi-polar ACs were 151 and major contest was between BJP-INC, out of which
109 & 41 seats won by BJP and INC respectively, while amongst 158 Bi-polar ACs in 2014 Parliamentary Election major
contest was between BJP-INC, out of which 123 and 34 seats won by BJP & INC respectively.
YY In 2013 Assembly Election, the numbers of Tri-polar ACs were 41 and contest was among BJP-INC-BSP on 27 seats and BJP-
INC-IND on 10 seats out of which 27, 8 & 4 seats won by BJP, INC & BSP respectively, while amongst 18 Tri-polar ACs in 2014
Parliamentary Election, contest was among BJP-INC-BSP out of which 15, 2 & 1 seats won by BJP, INC & BSP respectively.
YY In 2013 Assembly Election, the numbers of Multi-polar AC were 13, out of which 9 & 4 seats won by BJP & INC, while in
2014 Parliamentary Election, there is no Multi-polar AC.
RR Social Groups :-
YY By general-reserved break up, Scheduled Castes Reserved, Scheduled Tribes Reserved, Scheduled Castes dominated,
Scheduled Tribes dominated and General ACs are 35, 47, 55, 79 and 148 respectively.
YY Out of 35 SC reserved constituencies, seats won by BSP fell from 3 in 2013 Assembly Election to 0 in 2014 Parliamentary
Election, while those won by BJP increased from 28 in 2013 Assembly Election to 31 in 2014 Parliamentary Election. INC
remained same on 4 seats in 2014 Parliamentary Election & in 2013 Assembly Election.
YY Out of 47 ST reserved constituencies, seats won by INC & IND declined from 15 & 1 in 2013 Assembly Election to 14 &
0 in 2014 Parliamentary Election, while those won by BJP increased from 31 in 2013 Assembly Election to 33 in 2014
Parliamentary Election.
YY Out of 55 SC dominated constituencies, seats won by INC & BSP fell from 8 & 3 in 2013 Assembly Election to 7 & 0 in
2014 Parliamentary Election, while those seats won by BJP increased from 44 in 2013 Assembly Election to 48 in 2014
Parliamentary Election.
YY Out of 79 ST dominated constituencies, seats won by INC & IND fell from 29 & 2 in 2013 Assembly Election to 18 & 0 in
2014 Parliamentary Election respectively, while those seats won by BJP increased from 48 in 2013 Assembly Election to 61
in 2014 Parliamentary Election.
ElectionsinIndia.com vii
v
YY Out of 148 unreserved (general) constituencies, seats won by INC & IND fell from 39 & 2 in 2013 Assembly Election to 18
& 0 in 2014 Parliamentary Election, while those won by BJP & BSP increased from 106 & 1 in 2013 Assembly Election to
128 & 2 in 2014 Parliamentary Election.
RR Religious Groups :-
YY Hindu and Muslim dominated ACs are 219 and 11 respectively.
YY Out of 219 Hindu-dominated constituencies, seats won by INC, BSP & IND fell from 57, 4 & 3 in 2013 Assembly Election to
36, 2 & 0 in 2014 Parliamentary Election, while those won by BJP increased from 155 in 2013 Assembly Election to 181 in
2014 Parliamentary Election.
YY Out of 11 Muslim-dominated constituencies, seats won by INC fell from 1 in 2013 Assembly Election to 0 in 2014
Parliamentary Election, while those won by BJP increased from 10 in 2013 Assembly Election to 11 in 2014 Parliamentary
Election.
RR Rural-urban break-up :-
YY Rural, Urban and Rural + Urban assembly ACs are 66, 20 and 144 respectively.
YY Out of 66 Rural constituencies, seats won by INC, BSP & IND fell from 26, 3 & 1 in 2013 Assembly Election to 16, 1 & 0
in 2014 Parliamentary Election, while those all won by BJP increased from 36 in 2013 Assembly Election to 49 in 2014
Parliamentary Election.
YY Out of 20 Urban constituencies, seats won by INC fell from 2 in 2013 Assembly Election to 0 in 2014 Parliamentary Election,
while those won by BJP increased from 18 in 2013 Assembly Election to all 20 seats in 2014 Parliamentary Election.
YY Out of 144 Rural + Urban constituencies, seats won by INC & IND fell from 30 & 2 in 2013 Assembly Election to 20 & 0
in 2014 Parliamentary Election, while those won by BJP increased from 111 in 2013 Assembly Election to 123 in 2014
Parliamentary Election. BSP remained same on 1 seat in 2014 Parliamentary Election & in 2013 Assembly Election.
06 Estimated Population 12
58-59 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Less than 2000 Votes 70-71
60-61 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Between 2000 to 5000 Votes 72-73
62-63 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Between 5000 to 10000 Votes 74-75
64-65 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Between 10000 to 20000 Votes 76-77
66-67 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Above 20000 Votes 78-79
70-71 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Less than 5% Votes 82-83
72-73 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Between 5% to 10% Votes 84-85
74-75 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Between 10% to 15% Votes 86-87
76-77 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Between 15% to 25% Votes 88-89
78-79 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Above 25% Votes 90-91
x ElectionsinIndia.com
Pre-Election Insight Madhya Pradesh : 2013 - 2014
80-83 NOTA Votes are more than Winning Margin and Winner & Runner-up therein 92-95
94-95 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Above Average Poll Percentage 106-107
96-97 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Below Average Poll Percentage 108-109
98-99 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Hindu Dominated ACs 110-111
100-101 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Muslim Dominated ACs 112-113
102-103 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Scheduled Castes (SC) Dominated ACs 114-115
104-105 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Scheduled Castes (SC) Reserved ACs 116-117
106-107 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Scheduled Tribes (ST) Dominated ACs 118-119
108-109 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Scheduled Tribes (ST) Reserved ACs 120-121
110-111 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Unreserved (General) ACs 122-123
116-117 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Rural + Urban ACs 128-129
118-119 Vote Difference & Swing Impact of INC against BJP 132-133
120-121 Vote Difference & Swing Impact of INC against INC 134-135
122-123 Vote Difference & Swing Impact of BJP against INC 136-137
124-125 Vote Difference & Swing Impact of BJP against BJP 138-139
126-127 Vote Difference & Swing Impact of BSP against BSP 140-141
ElectionsinIndia.com xi
Pre-Election Insight Madhya Pradesh : 2013 - 2014
Top Ten Assembly Constituencies with Highest and Lowest Poll Percentage 148
Top Ten Winner Candidates Secured Highest and Lowest Numbers of Votes 149
Top Ten Winner Candidates with Highest and Lowest Acceptance in Total Electors 150
Top Ten Candidate with Highest and Lowest Winning Vote Margin 151
I. Data Information
J. Annexure
Disclaimer 253
xii ElectionsinIndia.com
A
Basic Features of Assembly
Constituencies
Pre-Election Insight Madhya Pradesh : 2013 - 2014
2011
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Pre-Election Insight Madhya Pradesh : 2013 - 2014
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Pre-Election Insight Madhya Pradesh : 2013 - 2014
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Pre-Election Insight Madhya Pradesh : 2013 - 2014
Map No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Number and Name Parliamentary
District-wise Res. Rural, Urban Estd. % Estd. % of Estd.
of AC Constituency Estd.
Distribution of and and of Rural Urban Religious
wise Pop. -
Assembly Unres. Rural+Urban Pop. - Pop. - Dominance* -
No. of AC Name of AC Distribution of 2011
Constituencies AC AC 2011 2011 2011
AC
1 Sheopur Sheopur Morena GEN Rural+Urban 340072 73 27 H
2 Vijaypur Sheopur Morena GEN Rural 347789 95 5 H
3 Sabalgarh Morena Morena GEN Rural+Urban 302255 83 17 H
4 Joura Morena Morena GEN Rural+Urban 351482 81 19 H
5 Sumawali Morena Morena GEN Rural 351432 91 9 H
6 Morena Morena Morena GEN Rural+Urban 358114 35 65 H
7 Dimani Morena Morena GEN Rural 295523 100 0 H
8 Ambah (SC) Morena Morena SC Rural+Urban 307164 72 28 H
9 Ater Bhind Bhind (SC) GEN Rural 308366 96 4 H
10 Bhind Bhind Bhind (SC) GEN Rural+Urban 369201 43 57 H
11 Lahar Bhind Bhind (SC) GEN Rural+Urban 336576 76 24 H
12 Mehgaon Bhind Bhind (SC) GEN Rural+Urban 372036 89 11 H
13 Gohad (SC) Bhind Bhind (SC) SC Rural+Urban 316826 73 27 H
14 Gwalior Rural Gwalior Gwalior GEN Rural+Urban 326441 85 15 H
15 Gwalior Gwalior Gwalior GEN Urban 423938 0 100 H
16 Gwalior East Gwalior Gwalior GEN Urban 313355 0 100 H
17 Gwalior South Gwalior Gwalior GEN Urban 331983 0 100 H
18 Bhitarwar Gwalior Gwalior GEN Rural 326606 91 9 H
19 Dabra (SC) Gwalior Gwalior SC Rural+Urban 324569 56 44 H
20 Sewda Datia Bhind (SC) GEN Rural+Urban 250196 82 18 H
21 Bhander (SC) Datia Bhind (SC) SC Rural+Urban 248406 90 10 H
22 Datia Datia Bhind (SC) GEN Rural+Urban 288152 62 38 H
23 Karera (SC) Shivpuri Gwalior SC Rural+Urban 355126 86 14 H
24 Pohari Shivpuri Gwalior GEN Rural 328454 100 0 H
25 Shivpuri Shivpuri Guna GEN Rural+Urban 346124 48 52 H
26 Pichhore Shivpuri Guna GEN Rural+Urban 355308 90 10 H
27 Kolaras Shivpuri Guna GEN Rural+Urban 341038 90 10 H
28 Bamori Guna Guna GEN Rural 306211 100 0 H
29 Guna (SC) Guna Guna SC Rural+Urban 299923 40 60 H
30 Chachoura Guna Rajgarh GEN Rural+Urban 317623 87 13 H
31 Raghogarh Guna Rajgarh GEN Rural+Urban 317762 72 28 H
32 Ashok Nagar (SC) Ashok Nagar Guna SC Rural+Urban 288920 72 28 H
33 Chanderi Ashok Nagar Guna GEN Rural+Urban 268611 83 17 H
34 Mungaoli Ashok Nagar Guna GEN Rural 287540 91 9 H
35 Bina (SC) Sagar Sagar SC Rural+Urban 257836 70 30 H
36 Khurai Sagar Sagar GEN Rural+Urban 280674 82 18 H
37 Surkhi Sagar Sagar GEN Rural+Urban 298878 89 11 H
38 Deori Sagar Damoh GEN Rural 294157 91 9 H
39 Rehli Sagar Damoh GEN Rural+Urban 310523 72 28 H
40 Naryoli (SC) Sagar Sagar SC Rural+Urban 321186 64 36 H
41 Sagar Sagar Sagar GEN Urban 274556 0 100 H
42 Banda Sagar Damoh GEN Rural+Urban 340648 86 14 H
43 Tikamgarh Tikamgarh Tikamgarh (Sc) GEN Rural+Urban 301714 67 33 H
44 Jatara (SC) Tikamgarh Tikamgarh (Sc) SC Rural+Urban 286687 89 11 H
45 Prithvipur Tikamgarh Tikamgarh (Sc) GEN Rural+Urban 280111 87 13 H
46 Niwari Tikamgarh Tikamgarh (Sc) GEN Rural+Urban 256507 83 17 H
47 Khargapur Tikamgarh Tikamgarh (Sc) GEN Rural+Urban 320147 87 13 H
48 Maharajpur Chhatarpur Tikamgarh (Sc) GEN Rural+Urban 287284 67 33 H
49 Chandla (SC) Chhatarpur Khajuraho SC Rural 303201 93 7 H
50 Rajnagar Chhatarpur Khajuraho GEN Rural+Urban 303644 80 20 H
51 Chhatarpur Chhatarpur Tikamgarh (Sc) GEN Rural+Urban 291043 49 51 H
52 Bijawar Chhatarpur Tikamgarh (Sc) GEN Rural+Urban 276794 89 11 H
53 Malhara Chhatarpur Damoh GEN Rural+Urban 300409 86 14 H
54 Pathariya Damoh Damoh GEN Rural 313946 91 9 H
55 Damoh Damoh Damoh GEN Rural+Urban 321918 52 48 H
56 Jabera Damoh Damoh GEN Rural 316797 93 7 H
57 Hatta (SC) Damoh Damoh SC Rural+Urban 311558 84 16 H
58 Pawai Panna Khajuraho GEN Rural 378732 96 4 H
59 Gunnaor (SC) Panna Khajuraho SC Rural+Urban 305659 89 11 H
Contd
154 ElectionsinIndia.com
Pre-Election Insight Madhya Pradesh : 2013 - 2014
ElectionsinIndia.com i
ISBN
ISBN 938637049-2
: 978-93-86370-49-5
9 789386 370495