Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Contents
Executivesummary viii
Privatecostsandbenefitsofthe5StarStandard viii
Communitywide benefitsofthe5StarStandard ix
Caveatsandlimitations xi
1 Introduction 1
1.1 Studyobjective 1
1.1.1 Privatecostsandbenefits 1
1.1.2 Communitywidecostsandbenefits 2
1.2 Studyapproach 4
1.2.1 Buildingcompanyconsultations 4
1.2.2 Literaturereview 5
1.3 Reportstructure 5
2 Buildingcompaniesresponsestothe5StarStandard 7
2.1.1 Ceiling 8
2.1.2 Walls 8
2.1.3 Floors 8
2.1.4 Windows 9
2.1.5 Shading 9
2.2 Changestohouseplans 9
orientations 11
2.4 Lessonslearnt 11
2.6 Othercomplianceissues 13
3 Buildercostsfor5Star compliance 15
4 Benefitsof5Starhomestohouseholds 23
4.1 Reductioninenergyusage 23
4.2 Reductioninenergycosts 26
4.2.1 Electricity 26
iii
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
4.2.2 Gas 29
4.4 Totalprivatebenefits 32
4.6.2 Environmentalandcommunitybenefitsofrainwatertanks 36
5 Privatecostbenefitanalysis 37
5.1 Costof5StarStandardtohouseholds 37
5.1.2 Yearbyyearcosts 38
5.2 Costbenefitanalysisresults 39
5.2.1 10yeartimehorizon 39
5.2.2 50yeartimehorizon 40
5.3 Sensitivityofcostbenefitanalysisresultstokeyassumptions 41
5.4.2 Alternativescenario2:100percentrainwatertank 43
6 Communitywidebenefitsofthe5StarStandard 45
6.2.1 Electricity 47
6.2.2 Gas 49
6.3 Reductioningreenhousegasemissions 50
6.4 Watersavingsandsupplyinfrastructure 51
glass/glazingindustries 54
7 Conclusions 57
8 References 58
A Buildersurveyresults 60
Ceiling 60
Wall 60
Floor 61
Windows 62
iv
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
Shading 63
Plansandorientations 63
Changestohouseplans 63
Adaptations toorientations 64
Adaptations toorientations 65
Otherinformation 66
Timberflooring 66
Learningeffects 67
Solarhot watersystemandrainwatertank 67
OtherComplianceIssues 68
CostEstimates: Thermal 69
Ceiling 70
Wall 70
Window 71
Shading 71
Other 72
Total 73
CostEstimates: Rainwater tank/Solarhot water system 73
Rainwatertank 73
Solarhot watersystem 74
B A primeroninsulation 75
Howinsulation works 75
Principlesofinsulation 75
Howinsulationperformanceismeasured 76
C Appropriatechoiceofdiscountrate 77
D Electricitymarket modellingassumptions 79
Modellingassumptions 79
Electricityconsumption 79
Newentrantcosts 80
Market supply 81
Contractcover 81
E Waterandseweragedisposal priceforecasting methodology 83
F Keyassumptions 84
v
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
vi
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
horizon 44
horizon 44
and estimates 48
dollars) 50
vii
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
Executive summary
ACIL Tasmanhasbeencommissionedbythe VictorianGovernments
DepartmentofSustainabilityandtheEnvironment(DSE)toundertakean
evaluationofthe Victorian5StarBuildingStandard.
Thisstudyinvolvedconsultation withbuildingcompaniesaboutbuilding
modificationsandcosts,as wellasundertakinga comprehensivereviewof
existingresearchreportsonthebenefitsofthe5StarStandardintermsof
energyandwatersavings andgreenhousegasemissionreductions.
Fromahomebuyersorhouseholdsperspective,theoverallcosteffectiveness
ofthe5StarStandarddependsonthechoiceofasolarhot watersystemora
rainwatertank.In ACIL Tasmansanalysis,thecentralcaseassumesa50:50
splitbetweensolarhot watersystemsandrainwatertanks,basedonBuilding
Commissiondataonbuildingapprovals.Sensitivityanalysis wasconductedon
twoalternativescenarios wherethesplit was100:0 and0:100respectively.
Overa10yeartimehorizon,undertheassumption ofa6.5percentdiscount
rate,thebenefitcostratio(BCR)ofthe5StarStandardisintherangeof1.2
1.8forahome withasolarhot watersystem(dependingonthesourceofcost
estimates) whiletheratioforahome witharainwatertankisintherangeof
0.81.2.
3.5
10-year horizon 50-year horizon
3
Benefit-cost ratio
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
50% solar 100% solar 100% RWT 50% solar 100% solar 100% RWT
HWS, 50% HWS HWS, 50% HWS
RWT RWT
Overa50yeartimehorizon,undertheassumption ofa6.5percentdiscount
rate,a5Starhome with a solarhot watersystemhasaBCRof2.12.9, witha
paybackperiodof57years.Bycomparison,a5Starhome witharainwater
tankhasaBCRof1.52.2 , withapaybackperiodof712years.
Theyieldfromarainwatertankdependsontheroofareacaptured,tanksize,
annualrainfall,thenumberofapplicationsitisusedfor,andthenumberof
occupantsinthehome. Thecosteffectivenessofarainwatertankisimpacted
bythecurrentminimumdesignconfigurationrequiredbythe5StarStandard,
andwouldincrease withgreatertankcapacity(i.e.largerthan2000litres),
greaterroofareacapturedandconnectionstomoreenduses.
Executive summary ix
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
electricity andgasgenerationcapacity,reductioningreenhousegasemissions
duetolowerenergyusage,anddeferredneedfornew watersources.
Similarly,theprivatebenefitstohouseholdsinreducedenergyandwaterbills
throughlowerusageresultinlowerrevenuesfor Victorianutilities.However,
appliancecostsavingstohouseholdsareconsideredpartofthenet
communitywidebenefitsasappliances(particularly airconditioners)are
assumedtobeprimarilymanufacturedoverseas.
Thepotentialcommunitywidebenefitsareprojectedtototalapproximately
$830millionover10yearsand$1.9billionover50yearsinrealpresent value
Executive summary x
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
termsundera6.5realpercentdiscountrate. Abreakdownonthesebenefitsby
thesourceofbenefitundera6.5percentdiscountrateisshownin TableES2.
Theevaluationalsodoesnottakeintoaccount administrativecostsassociated
withtheStandard.Capturingthesecostscompletely andpreciselyisacomplex
task.Inaccurateestimates ofthesecostsarelikelytodistortanymetricthat
comparescommunitywidebenefitsagainstcommunitywidecosts. These
metrics(suchasthecommunitywidebenefitcostratio)arethereforenot
reportedinthestudy.
Asmanyoftheresultsinthisevaluationdependon assumptionsmade,alistof
keyassumptionsisprovidedattheendofthereportin AppendixF.
Executive summary xi
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
1 Introduction
ACIL Tasman wascommissionedbythe Victorian GovernmentsDepartment
ofSustainabilityandtheEnvironment(DSE)toundertakeanevaluationofthe
Victorian5StarBuilding Standard.
The Victorian5StarBuildingStandardcameintoeffectin July2005(aftera
12monthtransitionperiod)throughaState variationtotheBuildingCodeof
Australia, withtheaimof improvingthethermalefficiencyofresidential
buildingstoreducepeakloaddemand,energyconsumptionandgreenhouse
gasemissions.For thosehouses witharainwatertank,theStandardalsoaimed
toprovidepotable watersavings.
Tomeetthe5StarStandard,anewhomemustachievea5Starenergyrating
forthebuildingfabric,adheretomaximumflowratesforshowerheads,taps
andtoilets,andrestrict waterpressuretoamaximumof500kPa.Inaddition,
newhouses(Class1dwellings)musthaveeitherarainwatertankcapturinga
minimumof50m2ofroofcapacityanda capacityofatleast2000litresfor
toiletflushing,orasolarhot watersystem. Whereavailable,homesmaybe
connectedtoareticulatedrecycledwatersysteminsteadofinstallinga
rainwatertankorsolarhot watersystem.
Asthe5StarStandardisflexible,thedesiredenergy ratingforthebuildingcan
beachievedthroughdesignfeaturessuchashouseorientation,building
materials, windowsizing, orientationandshading,insulationandglazing.
ByOctober2008,morethan150,000newhomeshavebeenbuilttothe5Star
Standard.From1May2008,theStandardwasextendedtocoveralterations,
additionsandrelocationsofhomes.
Thekeyquestionsaddressedinthisevaluationare:
Whatarethe costsandbenefitstohouseholdsin relationtothe5Star
Standard?
Whatarethe costsandbenefitstosocietyinrelationtotheStandard?
Thecoststohouseholdscomprisethefollowing:
Introduction 1
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
Increasedpurchaseprice of5Starcomplianthomesrelativetothe
purchasepriceofahome thatisnotrequiredtomeetthe5StarStandard
Replacementcostsforthesolarhot watersystemortherainwatertank
duringthelifetimeofthehome,as wellassmallassociatedoperational
costs(suchasenergyfortherainwatertankpump)andmaintenance costs.
Theprivatebenefitsofthe5StarStandardinclude:
Reductionin energycostsduetolowerelectricityandgasusage(especially
forhomesfittedwithasolarhot watersystem)
Savingsinappliancecosts
Reductionin waterbills,particularlyforhomes witharainwatertank
Abilitytoirrigateoutdoorareasforhomes witharainwatertank,during
periodsof waterrestrictions.
Toevaluatetheprivatecosteffectivenessofthe5StarStandard, ACIL Tasman
hasundertakenarigorouscostbenefitanalysisoftheStandardfroma
homebuyersorhouseholdsperspective.
Thecommunitywidebenefitsofthe5StarStandardinclude:
Reductioningreenhouse gasemissionsduetolowerelectricityandgas
usage
Energysavingsbasedontheavoidedcostsofgasandelectricity, including
defermentintheinstallationofnewpowergenerationcapacity
Reductionin consumptionofpotable water.
Byreducingtheheating andcoolingloadsinhomes,andhencetheirenergy
consumption,the5StarStandardisalsoexpectedtomitigatetheimpacton
householdsofincreasedfutureenergycostsduetotheintroductionofan
emissionstradingscheme.
Introduction 2
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
Manyoftheprivatecoststohouseholds(suchasincreasedinsulationand
windowcosts)resultinhigherrevenuesandprofitsfor Victorian
manufacturersandsuppliersofbuildingmaterials. Thatis,thesecoststo
householdsarebenefitstothebuildingindustry,andtheyoffseteachother
whencalculatingnetbenefitsacross thesetwostakeholdergroups.
Similarly,theprivatebenefitstohouseholdsinreducedenergyandwaterbills
throughlowerusageresultinlowerrevenuesfor Victorianutilities.However,
appliancecostsavingstohouseholdsareconsideredpartofthenet Victorian
communitywidebenefitsasappliances(particularly airconditioners)are
assumedtobeprimarilymanufacturedoverseas.
ACIL Tasmanhasnotquantifiedtheadministrativecostsassociatedwiththe
Standard. Thesecostsincludethoseassociatedwith theplanning,design,
Introduction 3
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
implementation,enforcement,andevaluationofthe5StarStandard. They
includethesalary andoncostsofgovernmentstaff,thecostofexternal
consultingservices,andoverheadcostssuchasofficespace andequipment.
Capturingcomplete administrativecostspreciselyisacomplextask,and
inaccurate estimatesofthesecostsarelikelytodistortanymetricthat
comparescommunitywidebenefitsagainstcommunitywidecosts(suchasthe
communitywidebenefitcostratio). While wereportestimatesofthe
communitywidebenefits,suchconsiderationspreclude ACIL Tasmanfrom
undertakingafullcostbenefitanalysisofthe5StarStandardfroma
communitywideperspective.
Introduction 4
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
Energysavings
TocomputetheenergysavingsandCO2emissionreductionmadepossibleby
the5StarStandard, ACIL Tasmandrewupona2007DSEcommissioned
reportbyGeorge WilkenfeldandAssociates(GWA) Optionstoreduce greenhouse
gasemissions fromnewhomesinVictoriathroughthebuildingapproval process. ACIL
Tasman wasgivenaccesstothedataunderpinningthereportedresultsby
DSE.
Watersavings
Otherreports
Introduction 5
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
costbenefitanalysisanddiscussesthesensitivityanalysisaroundtheseresults.
Chapter6analysesthebroadercommunitywidebenefitsofthe5StarStandard
to Victoria.Chapter7concludesthereport.
Introduction 6
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
In2007,thesurveyrespondentsbuiltatotalof7,340homesinMelbourneand
areasofregional Victoria, includingGeelong,Ballarat, Anglesea,Gisborne,
Ballan,MorningtonandTorquay. Thisrepresentsapproximately20percentof
the35,300building approvalsforresidentialhouses andunitsissuedin Victoria
in200607. Thelargestbuilderamongthesurveyrespondentsconstructed
morethan1,000homesin Victoriain2007;thesmallestbuilderconstructed
four.
2.1.1 Ceiling
Ofthebuildingcompaniessurveyed,threequartersupgradedtheceiling
insulationmaterialfromR2.5pre5StartoR.3.54.0 inordertomeetthe5Star
Standard(see Table3).
2.1.2 Walls
Priortothe5StarStandard,thebuildingcompaniessurveyedtendedtouse
R1.0 wrapfoilinsulationinthe walls.Sincetheimplementationofthe5Star
minimumstandards,approximatelyhalfofthesebuildingcompanieshavebeen
consistentlyinstallingR2.0glasswoolbatts(someof whichincludereflective
foil wrap)andafurtherthreehavebeeninstallinguptoR2.5insulationfor
their6Starhouses(see Table4).
2.1.3 Floors
Thethermalperformanceofconcreteslabfloorsandtimberfloors varies
significantly. Whilehouses withaconcreteslabon groundfloordonotrequire
anyfurthersubfloorinsulation,houses withtimberfloorsgenerallyrequire
additionalinsulationsuch assubfloor foilbatts(for example, concertinafoil
batts)inordertomeetthe5Starthermalefficiencyrating.
Furthermore,othermeasurestoimprovetheoverallthermalefficiencyof
houses withtimberfloors include:
Windowsizereduction,particularlysouthandwestfacing windows
Doubleglazing windows orothertreatments(eglowEglass)
Improvinginsulationinceilingsandwallsandensuringbetterdraftsealing.
Whilefourofthebuildingcompaniessurveyeddonotoffertimberfloor
constructionintheirhouses,thosethatdoofferitindicatedthattheyhave
builtnoneor veryfewhomes withtimberfloors sincetheintroductionofthe5
StarStandard.
2.1.4 Windows
Sincetheintroductionofthe5Starrating,allthebuildingcompaniessurveyed
havemodifiedthe windowsusedinnewhouses. Themodificationsinclude:
Usingdoubleglazedwindows
Usinglowemissivity(lowe)glass
Reducing windowsizes,
Sealing aroundwindows withfoampriortoplastering
Usingimprovedaluminiumforframes(see Table5).
2.1.5 Shading
Thebuildingcompaniessurveyedindicatedthattheygenerallyhavenotused
shadingfromeavestoassist withachieving a5Starrating.Furthermore,eight
oftheseventeenrespondentsstatedthattheygenerallydonotprovideeaves;
threebuildingcompaniesincorporateeavesonlyiftheyarepartofthedesign
(i.e.foraestheticpurposes);andonestatedthatitamendsthedesigntoinclude
eavesfornorthfacing windows.
Glazing
Reductionintotal windowarea(numberof windowsandsizeof windows)
Maximisingnorthandeastfacing window areas,andminimisingsouthand
westfacing windows
Usingloweglass
Usingdoubleglazing.
Design
Locatinglivingroomstosuitmultipleorientations
Reductionin courtyardsandalfrescoareasastheyhindertheachievement
ofthe5Starrating
Improvingcrossflow ventilation.
Theabilityforhouseplanstobeadaptedtodifferentlotorientationsisan
importantconsiderationforbuildingcompanies. Whilehousedesignsfor
volumebuilderstendtoperformbetterinoneortwoorientations,theyare
oftenabletobeadaptedtoalllotorientations.However,the5StarStandard
haslimitedtheadaptabilityofthesehousedesignsduetothepoorthermal
performanceinparticular orientations.
Thebuildingcompaniessurveyedoutlinedanumberofstrategiesforadapting
houseplanstosuitalllotorientations. Thesestrategiesinclude:
Glazing
Usingdoubleglazingtoimprovethermalperformanceinunfavourable
orientations
Usingloweglass
Altering windowplacementandsizetoimprovepassivedesign.
Design
Mirroringhousedesigns
Designinghousesthatincorporateroomlocationsofferingmultiplesitting
options
Reducingtheuseof verandahs
Maximisingnorthernexposureforlivingrooms
Minimisingrooms with westernexposure,suchasthroughreducing
windowsizesintheseand/orprovidingexternalshading.
Buildingcostsrelatingto5Starcompliancethat varybyorientationare
recoveredindifferent waysbythebuildingcompaniessurveyed. Theseinclude:
Varyingthehousepricetofullyorpartiallyreflectcostdifferences
Sharingtheincreasedcostsbetweenthecustomerandthebuilding
company
Pricingthehousebasedonthe worstorientation
Uniformlypricinghousesbasedonaveragecostacrossallorientations.
Itisinterestingtonotethatreducinghousesize wasnotanoptionconsidered
by volumebuilderstoreducecosts.
Design responses
Researchandanalysisregardingthebest wayofachievingthe5Star
Standard
Moreemphasisongoodorientationatthedesignstage.
Materials responses
Varymaterialsusedaccordingtothecostandavailabilityofupgradeitems
(suchasinsulation)
Changematerialscomposition(suchasadditionalinsulationanddouble
glazing)andpasscostsontopurchaser
Alterglazingthroughreducing windowsizeand/orlocation
Twoofthebuildingcompanieshavebeenoffering5Starratedhousessince
2001,andbothindicatedthatthetransitiontoregulationin2005 wassmooth:
As weintroduced5Star housesto Victoriain2001,andsubsequentlyimproved
designs over thenext couple ofyears, wehadalreadysortedout ourstrategies before
2005andhavecarriedtheseforward(BuildingCompany7).
Costbaseddecisions
Solarhot waterservicesarecheaperforustosupply thanatank. Wedo notoffer the
customera choice.
forclient.
Customerchoicebasedmainlyon cost.
customerbenefit.
Easeofinstallation
Dependsonthepreferenceoftheclientandsitesize.Smallersitesaremorelikely
watersystem.
isroughly thesame.
Otherreasons
Solarhot watersystemisstandardandwater tanksareanoptionrecommendedtoall
clients.
additionaltank.
both.
Insummary,13outofthe17buildingcompaniessurveyed(76percent)prefer
toinstallsolarhotsystemsinsteadofrainwatertanksprimarilyforcostreasons
andeaseofinstallation(especiallyonsmallerplots). Threebuildersinstallsolar
hot watersystemsasstandardbutofferrainwatertanksasanoption,andone
additionalbuilderstatedthatmostclientsinstallboth.
Ofthefourbuildersfavouringrainwatertanks,oneattributesthistothe
administrativeburdenofprocessinggovernmentrebatesforsolarhot water
systems.Itisnotablethatthefourbuilders whopreferredtoinstallrainwater
tanksbuiltbetweenfourand150homesin2007. Thatis,largerbuilding
companiessurveyedappeartofavoursolarhot watersystems whilesmall
buildersseemtopreferrainwatertanks.Pleasenote, however,thatBuilding
Commissionfiguresshowthatapproximately50percentofnewhomesinstall
solarhot watersystemsandapproximately50percentrainwatertanks.
Appendix Aprovidesfurtherdetails.
InsubsequentconsultationsundertakenbyDSE,onedesignerprovided
additionalqualitativeinformationonaClass2buildingproject. Thisindicated
2 It is possible that Class 2 buildings (apartments) have been constructed since the introduction
of 5 Star in July 2005, however none have been built by the building companies surveyed as
part of this report and therefore no quantitative data are available.
OnesmallbuildingfirmprovidedadditionalcommentstoDSEontheir
approachtoachievinga5 Starratingintimberflooredhomes. Thisfirm
advised:
Thereisaneedtoprovideadequate ceiling andwall insulation,orientation
andwindowshading asappropriate.
Forhomesover200m2 withpoororientation,itisdifficulttoachieve a5
Starrating withoutintroducingfloorinsulationordoubleglazedwindows.
Increasingthermalratingto6Stars(orhigher) willincreaseconstruction
costsduetointroducingdoubleglazingandfloorinsulationinsuchhomes.
Light weighthomes withtimberfloors willprobablystillbeaffordableon
flatsitescomparedwithslabhomes. Thenatureofthesitecanoften
influencethetypeoffloorconstruction.
ThisinformationonClass2dwellingsandtimberflooredhomesisnot
includedin Attachment A.
roseonlybyjustoverthreepercentbetweenlate2005andMarch2008.3No
adjustment wasthereforemadetothe ABCBsunitcosts. Theseunitcostsare
shownin Table6.
Therangeofpricesforglazingimprovementsreflectsadjustmentsmadefor
costdifferencesbetweenlocations. Thecostofceilingandwall insulation were
sufficientlysimilarbetweenlocationsthatthe ABCBprovidedonlyonesetof
unitcostsacross Australia. Volumebuilderdiscounts weretakeninto
considerationbythe ABCB.
Thenonlinearrelationshipbetweencostandhousesizeinthesecondtolast
columninthetableislikelyduetodifferencesinhousedesigns(inplanand
insulationspecification)andactualbuiltareasinthesamesizecategory within
andbetweenthethreebuilders.
4 Builders were requested to provide a low estimate and a high estimate for incremental costs
in ceiling, wall and floor insulation as well as window improvements to meet the 5 Star
Standard. The low estimate has been used here as it applies to the majority of houses built
while the high estimate corresponds to cases where houses are built on difficult sites and
orientations.
Whilethedifferencebetweenthetwosetsofcostestimatesmaybeattributable
tomanyreasons,partofthe variationmaybeexplainedbythefactthatnone
ofthe windowsinthe14 homedesignsassessedby EnergyPartnersrequired
upgrading(suchasdoubleglazing) whereasbuildersreportedspendinga
weightedaverageofapproximately$300on window upgrades.Itshouldbe
notedthatmostofthelargerbuildersin ACIL Tasmanssurveyreported
incurringnoadditionalcostsforglassorglazingfor theaveragehomebuiltand
thatthe$300figurelargelyreflectstheconsiderableadditionalglassandglazing
costsclaimedtohavebeenincurredbylowvolumebuilders.
Thebuildermarginonnewhomeshasbeenestimatedtorangefrom20
percentto30percent.5Usinganaverageof25percentandapplyingthe10
5 Personal communication with the Managing Director of one of Victorias largest home
builders and validated in conversations with representatives of two other home builders.
There is no current ABS data on builder margins. Data from 200203 (ABS 8772.0 Private
Sector Construction Industry) indicates that the operating profit margin of large residential
builders (with annual revenues of $100 million or more) was 13.2 percent. However, builder
percentGoodsandServices Tax(GST),theaveragecosttohomebuyersof
improvingthermalefficiencytomeetthe5StarStandardis$2,064(usingthe
estimatesfromthebuildersurvey)and$1,203(usingtheindependentcost
estimates).
Usingabuildermarginof25percentandtakingintoaccountGST,theaverage
costsoftherainwatertankandsolarhot watersystemtohomebuyersbasedon
buildercostestimatesare$4,082and$2,805respectively. Thecurrent valueof
Renewable Energy Certificates(RECs)inthe AustralianGovernmentssolar
hot waterrebateprogram,estimatedtorangefrom$900to$1,600, was
providedbyDSE.
Theindependentcostestimateof$2,645fora2kLrainwatertank(including
tank,installation,pumpandinternalplumbingcosts)isdrawnfroma surveyof
morethan20rainwatertanksuppliersacross AustraliaundertakenbyMarsden
Jacob(NWC2007). The estimateoftheaverage costofasolarhot water
systembyBISShrapnelis$3,345.6
Thenetcostsofarainwatertanksystemandasolarhot watersystem(beyond
thatofaconventionalhot watersystemandnetofgovernmentrebates)to
markups are likely to exceed operating profit margins due to increased transport costs and
other overheads such administrative costs associated with 5 Star compliance.
6 The $2,645 figure is the median rather than the mean ($2,788) to remove the influence of
outliers in the survey sample. The cost of a 2kL rainwater tank itself ranged from $641 to
$922, with a mean of $732 and median of $721.
homebuyers,basedonbuildercostestimatesandindependentcostestimates
,areshowninthelasttworowsof Table9.
Table 9 Cost of rainwater tank and solar hot water system (2008 dollars)
Rainwater tank Solar hot water system
Estimate from ACIL Tasmans builder survey
Total cost to builder (including 3,024 2,078
installation and all necessary (after RECs, incremental cost
pipe work) taking into account over conventional hot water
rebates for solar hot water system)
systems
Total cost to homebuyer 4,082 2,805
(including 10% GST and (after RECs, incremental cost
assuming a builder margin of over conventional hot water
25%) system)
Independent (non-builder) cost estimate
Total cost to homebuyer 2,645 3,345 (after RECs)
(including installation and all
necessary pipe work) taking
into account rebates for solar
hot water systems
Total cost to homebuyer for a n.a. 1,123
conventional hot water system
Incremental cost over n.a. 2,222
conventional hot water system
Net cost
Net cost to homebuyer (based 4,082 2,805
on builder cost estimates)
Net cost to homebuyer (based 2,645 2,222
on independent cost estimates)
Note: Assume the average rebate for solar hot water systems is $1250, the mid-point of the $900-$1,600 range
provided by DSE
Data source: ACIL Tasman builder survey, NWC 2007 for cost estimate of rainwater tank, BIS Shrapnel (2006) for
cost of conventional hot water system and independent cost estimate for solar hot water system, DSE for estimate of
current value of RECs
Assuminganaveragebuildingcostof$225,000(excludinglandcostsbut
includingsitepreparation costs),anestimatederivedfrom200708Housing
Industry Association(HIA)dataonthelargesthomebuildersin Victoria,the5
StarStandardincreasesthecostofanewhousebyabout1.6to2.5percent.
Previousestimatesofthe costsofthe5StarBuildingStandardtobuildershave
variedconsiderably. These werederived(before,orsoonafter,theStandard
cameintoeffectinmid2005)under varyingassumptionsandmethodologies.
andnegligibleinsomecases,themajorityoftheresponses wereforcost
increasesintherangeof35percentand6+percent.
Theresultsfromthesepreviouscoststudies(undertakeninorpriorto2005)
aresummarisedin Table10.
TheGWAmodelassumes2.67occupantsperhome,andconsidersthe
followingtypesofheatingandcoolingequipment:electricresistance,electric
roomairconditioner,electriccentralairconditioner,gasroomheater,gas
centralheater,LPGroom heater, woodroomheater,andevaporativecooler.
Thefollowingtypesof waterheatingareconsideredinthemodel:electric
resistancestorage(peak), electricresistance(offpeak),solar withelectric
resistancebackup,electricheatpump,naturalgas(instantaneous),naturalgas
(storage),andsolar withnaturalgasbackup.
Table11reproducesthedataonmodelledenergyusageof5Starhomesin
threeclimatezonesbypurpose(heating,cooling and watercooling)andaccess
tonaturalgassupplyfromtheGWAstudy.
Forexample,a5Starhouse with2.67occupantsinthecoastalclimatezone
(whichincludesMelbourne) withaccesstonaturalgasconsumes3.5GJof
energyfromelectricity eachyearforspaceheating andcoolingas well as water
heating,of which1.9GJisforheating,0.3GJisforcoolingand1.4GJisfor
waterheating.GWA assumesthatasmallproportionof5Starhousesinthis
climatezonearefittedwith varioustypesofelectric spaceandwaterheaters
despitetheiraccesstonaturalgas.
The5Starhouseinthecoastalclimatezone withaccesstonaturalgasalso
consumes41.2GJofenergyfromgaseachyear,of which26.9GJisfor
Table 11 Modelled energy usage of 5 Star homes in various climate zones (GJ per household per
annum)
Home type Climate Heating Cooling Water heating Total No. of
Electricity Gas LPG Electricity Electricity Gas Electricity Gas LPG dwellings
Class 1: Houses
NG Coastal 1.9 26.9 0.0 0.3 1.4 14.3 3.5 41.2 0.0 23,911
Warmer 1.7 11.0 0.0 1.4 1.5 10.7 4.6 21.7 0.0 1,450
Colder 2.1 41.7 0.0 0.5 1.9 16.2 4.5 57.9 0.0 4,572
No Gas Coastal 11.8 0.0 3.5 0.5 14.1 0.0 26.4 0.0 3.5 466
Warmer 5.5 0.0 1.6 1.3 10.6 0.0 17.4 0.0 1.6 891
Colder 10.5 0.0 17.6 0.4 13.4 0.0 24.4 0.0 17.6 1,695
Class 2: Apartments
NG, LR Coastal 2.3 9.4 0.0 0.3 1.8 9.4 4.3 18.7 0.0 1,170
Warmer 1.2 3.2 0.0 1.0 3.3 6.5 5.4 9.7 0.0 37
Colder 2.7 18.3 0.0 0.1 1.8 8.9 4.6 27.2 0.0 25
No Gas, LR Coastal 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 10.6 0.0 17.8 0.0 0.0 130
Warmer 2.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 10.1 0.0 13.6 0.0 0.5 0
Colder 7.0 0.0 6.4 0.1 10.6 0.0 17.7 0.0 6.4 7
HR Coastal 6.5 5.4 0.0 0.1 3.7 9.2 10.3 14.7 0.0 3,648
Note: NG indicates that natural gas is available, LR stands for low rise and HR for high rise
Data source: GWA 2007
Thehouseholdheating,coolingandwaterheatingenergysavingsenabledby
the5StarStandardareshownin Table12. Thetotalenergyusagebythe
average5Starhome(whichisa weightedamalgamationofthehometypes
shownin Table11,encompassingbothhousesandapartments)byenergy
source(electricity,natural gasandLPG)showninthesecondrowofthetable
arethe weightedaverages ofthedatashowninthelastfourcolumnsof Table
11.7 The weightsarethenumberofdwellingscorrespondingtoeachdwelling
type.
Thegreenhouseemissionsbyenergysourceshowninthethirdrowofthe
tablearecalculatedbymultiplyingenergyusageby energysource(rowone)by
thefactorsfromthe AustralianGreenhouseOffice(AGO)showninthe
secondrow.
BasedonGWAmodelling whichshowsthatacomparablenon5Starhome
produces8,336kgofCO2peryear(andassumingthatemissionsbyenergy
sourceareinthesameproportionsasthoseintheaverage5Starhome), ACIL
Tasmancalculatesthattheenergysavingsinelectricityandgasenabledbythe 5
StarStandardare4.48GJ (or1.24MWh)perhouseholdperyearand26.83GJ
perhouseholdperyearrespectively.
7 The relative weights on houses and apartments are 87 percent and 13 percent respectively.
Thereductioninenergyconsumptionandgreenhousegasemissionsduetothe
5StarBuildingStandardobviouslydependsontheaveragesizeofthe5Star
homeconstructedandrangeofapplianceandequipmentinstalled.In
estimatingthereductioninenergycostsofa5Starhome, ACIL Tasman
assumesthattheaveragesizeofa5Starhome willnotchangeoverthelifespan
oftheregulation. Thisassumptionisbasedon ABS buildingapprovalsdata
whichindicatesthat, whiletheaveragesizeofhomesbuiltin Victoriaincreased
steadilyupto200405,it hasdeclinedslightlysince (seeFigure1).
300.0
250.0
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
1991-92 1993-94 1995-96 1997-98 1999-2000 2001-02 2003-04 2005-06
4.2.1 Electricity
emissionsandreducesgenerationfromsomepowerstationsandeventually,
whentheemissionspriceishighenough,makescontinuedgeneration
uneconomicinsomecases. Thisprocesseffectivelybacksouthighemitters
andreplacesthem withthelowestcost(includingemissionscost)alternative.
Thepricingofemissionsinthis wayalsobringsaboutchangesinrelatedfuel
marketsas wellasthemarketforelectricity. GasMark wasusedtoestimatethe
effectofincreaseddemandforelectricitygenerationongaspricesandsupply.
TasmanGlobal wasusedtoestimatetheeffectofincreasedelectricitypriceson
demandinthefuture.
Moredetailsabouttheassumptionsunderlyingtheelectricitymarketmodeling
usedtoproduceelectricitypriceforecastsareprovidedin AppendixD.
$55.00
$50.00
2008$/tonne CO2
$45.00
$40.00
$35.00
$30.00
$25.00
$20.00
$15.00
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Figure3showstheindicativepassthroughoftheincreasesinelectricitycosts
throughtheCPRSanda20percentby2020RenewableEnergy Target(RET)
toretailtariffsinthetwoscenarios(comparedwiththebusinessasusualor
BAUcase withouttheCRPSorRET).Ineachcase, energycostsincludepool
andcontractingcosts,andnetworkcostsincludean allowanceforboth
transmissionanddistribution.
19
18
17
real 2008 cents per kWh
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
10% 20% BAU
Networkcostsareassumedtorisefromthecurrentlevelofapproximately5.5
centsperkWhto6.0centsby2020(incurrent2008dollars). Therealretail
marginisassumedtobeconstantat1.5centsperkWh, whiletheRETis
expectedtoimposeareal costof1.0centperkWh by2020. Theretailpriceof
electricityisassumedtoremainconstantafter2020inrealterms.
Inourcostbenefitanalysis, weuseaprojectedpathofelectricityretailprices
thatistheaverageofthoseforthetwoscenariosdescribedabove.
Whilethe5StarStandardmakeshouseholdsmoreresilienttoincreased
energycostsbyreducing heating/cooling loads,theincreaseinthepriceof
electricityisstillexpectedtogenerateademandresponsebyresidential
consumersofelectricity.Forexample,accordingto ACIL Tasmansmodelling,
residentialdemandforelectricityisexpectedtobe3.9percentlowerthanthat
inthebusinessasusual(BAU)casein2013and10.1percentlowerthanBAU
in2020. Withtheseexpecteddemandresponses,theprojectedelectricity
savingsperhouseholdattributabletothe5StarStandarddeclinesfrom1,240
kWhin2008to1,115kWhin2020.
Thepresent value(PV)ofexpectedsavingsinelectricitycostsforoccupiersof
5Starhomes,basedonGWAmodellingofenergy usageandACIL Tasman
modellingoffutureelectricitypricesanddemandresponses,forthree
alternativediscountrates andtwotimehorizonsisshownin Table13.
Adiscussionontheappropriatechoiceofdiscountrateforthiscostbenefit
analysisispresentedin AppendixC.
4.2.2 Gas
ACIL Tasmansforecastofnaturalgaspricesto2020,takingintoaccountthe
impactoftheCPRS,isshowninFigure4.(Realgaspricesareassumedto
remainatthesamelevelthereafter.)Inadditiontoemissions trading,gasprices
areexpectedtoriseinthecomingdecadeastheestablishmentofLiquefied
NaturalGas(LNG)exportterminalsontheeastcoastmeansthatthepriceof
gasin Australia willbegin toreflect worldpricesfor thefirsttime.(Ifnatural
gaspricesin Australiadonotrisetothelevelof worldprices,it wouldbemore
profitabletoexportallofthenaturalgasratherthantosellsomeofitto
Australianconsumers.)
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
ThePVofexpectedsavingsinnaturalgascostsfor occupiersof5Starhomes,
basedonGWAmodellingofenergyusageandACIL Tasmanmodellingof
futuregaspricesanddemandresponses,for threealternativediscountrates
andtwotimehorizonsisshownin Table14.
Intheabsenceofcrediblelongerrangeforecasts,itisassumedthatthereal
priceof waterremainsconstantfrom2013onwards. Thepriceforecastis
showninFigure5.
8 Residential water tariffs in Victoria are structured into three usage charge blocks with usage
charge block 1 (0440 litres/day) priced at the lowest rate. The rate is highest for usage
charge block 3 (>880 litres/day), which is approximately double that of block 1.
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
AccordingtoGWA(2006),the5StarStandardresultsin watersavingsof35.8
kLayearfortheaverage5StarhomeinMelbourne,assumingthat50percent
of5Starhomesareequippedwitha2kLrainwater tankconnectedto50m2of
theroof. Thebulkofthesesavingsareduetotherestrictionsonflowrates for
showerheadsandtapsandon waterpressureimposedbythe5StarStandard
andplumbingregulations.
GWA(2006)estimatesthata2kLrainwatertankusedtoprovide waterfor
toiletflushingreduces waterconsumptionby18.4kL/yearforhomesin
Melbournethatareequippedwithsuchtanks. Asitisassumedthathalfof5
Starhomesarefittedwithsuchtanks,thesavingsfromrainwatertanksforthe
average5Starhomeis9.2kL/year. Thissmallsavingisduetothetankbeing
optionaland, when chosen,capturingonlyasmall areaofroofandbeing
connectedtotoiletsonly.
ThePVofexpectedsavingsinthecostsof waterforoccupiersof5Star
homes,basedonGWAmodellingof watersavingsandtheforecastof water
pricespreparedby ACIL Tasman,isshownin Table15.
Thepresent valueofcombinedsavingsfortheaverage5Starhome(fromflow
rateandwaterpressurerestrictionsandhalfarainwatertank)is$850overa10
yearhorizonand$1,890overa50yearhorizon(ascanbeseeninthemiddle
rowof Table15).
TheseappliancesavingsarediscussedingreaterdetailinSection6.2.1and
Section6.2.2.
Theyearonyearbenefits totheoccupantsofa5Stardwellingbythesource
ofbenefitisshowninFigure6. Ascanbeseeninthefigure,gassavings
enabledbythe5StarStandardarethelargestcontributoroftotalprivate
benefits.
800
700
600
500
400 Water
300 Gas
200 Electricity
100
0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49
Year
Figure7showsthe90percentconfidenceintervalforthepresent valueoftotal
estimatedprivatebenefitstotheaverage 5Starhouseholdovera10yeartime
horizonundera6.5percentdiscountrate. Thisconfidenceintervallies
between$4,670and$5,730.Recallthatthe centralestimateis$5,210.
9 A simulation refers to any analytical method meant to imitate a reallife system, especially
when other analyses are too mathematically complex or too difficult to reproduce. Without
the aid of simulation, a spreadsheet model will only reveal a single outcome, generally the
most likely or average scenario. Spreadsheet risk analysis uses both a spreadsheet model and
simulation to automatically analyse the effect of varying inputs on outputs of the modeled
system. One type of spreadsheet simulation is Monte Carlo simulation, which randomly
generates values for uncertain variables over and over to simulate a model.
4.671 5.730
0.0014
5.0% 90.0% 5.0%
0.0012
0.001
0.0008
0.0006
0.0004
0.0002
0
3.9 4.2 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.7 6.1 6.4
The Tornadodiagram(Figure8)indicatesthatthetotalprivatebenefitsofthe
5StarStandardaremostsensitivetoassumptionsonthequantityofgas
savingsenabledbythestandard(withaonestandarddeviationincreaseingas
savingsraisingtotalprivatebenefitsbyjustover$250),followedby
assumptionsaboutthequantityofelectricitysavingsandthequantityof water
savings. Theresultsoftheanalysisarerelativelylesssensitivetotheforecasted
futurepricesofgas,electricityandwater.Insummary,theresultshingeonthe
precisionandreliabilityoftheGWAmodellingof energysavings.
Aprivatebenefitofthe5 StarBuildingStandardthatisdifficulttoquantifyis
theincreaseinthemarket valueofamoreenergyandwaterefficienthome.
Thedatafor Australiahasbeenscantuptonow.
The AustralianBureauofStatistics(ABS) wascommissionedtoestablishthe
relationshipbetweenenergyperformancedisclosureandpriceusinghedonic
analysisofauniquedataset. Thepricesofdetachedhousessoldinthe ACT in
2005and2006 weremodelledasafunctionofland, distance,neighbourhood,
socioeconomicandenergyefficiencyrating(EER) data.
Ahedonicregressionregressespriceagainstahostofexplanatory variables,
whereinthiscaseitdecomposesthehousepriceintoitsconstituent
characteristics,andobtainsestimatesofthe valueofeachcharacteristic.
Thehedonicregressiondemonstratedstrongmarketrecognitionofthe value
ofenergyefficiency. The modelestablishedafinancialbenefitassociatedwith
eachstarimprovementin buildingenergyperformance.
EER wasfoundtobepositivelyassociatedwithhousepriceandhadastrongly
significantrelationship. Theassociationonaverage for2005 was1.23percent
foreach0.5EERstar,and1.91percentin2006,holdingallother variables
constant.
Thisstudyconcludesthatiftheenergyperformanceofahouse isimprovedby
onestarlevel,onaverageitsmarket value willincreasebyabout3percent
(range2.53.8).Forexample:foradetachedhousesoldinCanberrain2005
withaprice valueof$365,000,increasingthe EERratingbyonestar wouldbe
associatedwith,onaverage,anadditionalpriceincreaseinexcessof$8500.
Theauthorsofthestudyarguethatthiscreatesmultipleincentivestoinvestin
energyefficiency.First,therearebenefitsofreducedoperationalenergycosts.
Second,thehighercapital valueofthepropertydue totheimprovementin
energyefficiencyislikelytobegreaterthanthecost involvedinachievingthe
improvement. Third,therearedirectandindirectconsumerbenefitsofenergy
efficiencyincludingthermalcomfort,physicalhealth,andmentalsatisfaction
associatedwithlowerenvironmentalimpacts.
Anotherbenefitofthe5StarStandardisthatrainwatertankscanalsoprovide
anindependent watersupplyforoccupantsof5Starhomesandbeasourceof
waterforirrigation where andwhenpotable waterrestrictionsapply.
Rainwatertanksinstalledaspartofthe5StarStandardcanalsoprovidea
numberofindirectbenefits.
Theadditionofarainwatertankina5Starhomereducesthe volumeof
stormwaterrunoffleavingtheproperty. This volumeisequaltothe volume
thatisannuallycapturedinarainwatertank andreusedthat wouldotherwise
haveleftthesiteasstormwater.
Reducedrunofftostormwaterdrainsalsoresultsinreducednitrogenandother
nutrientsentering waterways.Dissolvednitrogeniscapturedbyrainwatertanks
andsubsequentlydivertedfromthestormwaterdrainagesystemtothe
seweragesystem whereitistreatedandremoved.
However,therainwatertankoptionunderthe5StarStandardwasnot
designedforstormwater management andthereforefallssignificantlyshortof
meetingthe Victorianstormwatermanagementstandardsforurban
development(ELM&EE2008).Greater watercapture(largertanksize,larger
roofarea)andmoreendusesof water(forexamplelaundry,shower) would
contributetomoreeffectivestormwatermanagementandthemeetingof
environmentalobjectives.
Undertheseassumptions,thePVofthecostsofthe5StarStandardoverthe
lifespanofthehomeandover10years,basedonbuildercostestimatesand
independentcostestimatesforthethreealternative discountratesused
previously,areshownin Table17.Recallthatthecostestimates were
presentedpreviouslyin Table8andTable9,anddiscussedinSections3.1and
3.2.
Theannualcostsofthe5StarStandardtohouseholdsoverthelifespanofthe
homebasedonbuildercostestimates,brokendownbyeach costitem,is
showninFigure9.
$5,000
$1,000
Thermal upgrades
$0
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49
Year
Theannualcostsofthe5StarStandardtohouseholdsoverthelifespanofthe
homebasedonindependentcostestimates,broken downbyeachcostitem,is
showninFigure10.
$5,000
$1,000
Thermal upgrades
$0
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49
Year
TheexpectedintroductionofanETSfrom2011onwardsmayhavesome
impactonbuildingcostsinthelastfewyearsofthe10yearscenarioforthe5
StarStandard.Forexample,theglassindustryisenergyintensive, withenergy
costsrepresentingsevento20percentoftotalproductioncost.Mostofthe
energyusedisfromfossilfuels whosecombustionleadstoCO2emissions.
Processemissionsrepresentaround20percentoftotalCO2emissionsinglass
productionduetothedecompositionofcarbonaceousrawmaterials.
AnETSisexpectedtoimpactinsulationproductioncostsas well.However,
thereisinsufficientdatatoincorporatethesepotentialimpactsintothecost
benefitanalysis.
Thekeyresultsofthecostbenefitanalysisovera10yeartimehorizonare
summarisedin Table18.
Thebenefitcostratio(BCR),obtainedfromdividingthePVofbenefitsbythe
PVofcosts,rangesfrom 0.97to1.43underthecentralassumptionofa6.5
percentdiscountrate,dependingonthesourceofthecostestimates. TheBCR
is1.101.60undera3.5 percentdiscountrateand0.881.29undera9.5
percentdiscountrate. ABCRgreaterthanoneindicatesthatthestreamof
currentandfuturebenefitsoutweighthestreamofcurrentandfuturecosts
whentherelativepreferenceforconsumptiontoday versusfuture
consumptionistakenintoaccount(viathediscountrate).
Thepaybackperiod,thelengthoftimerequiredtorecoverthecostofan
investment,is9years whencostsarebasedonbuilderestimatesand7years
whenthey arebasedonindependentestimates.10
Thekeyresultsofthecostbenefitanalysisovera50yeartimehorizonare
summarisedin Table19.
TheBCRrangesfrom1.74to2.44undera6.5percentdiscountrate,
dependingonthesource ofthecostestimates. The correspondingrangesfor a
10 The limitation of using the payback period as a tool of analysis is that it does not properly
account for the time value of money or the opportunity cost of an investment.
3.5percentdiscountrateanda9.5percentdiscount rateare2.403.29and
1.341.92respectively.
Figure11showsthatthesensitivityofresultsusing buildercostestimates(over
a10yearhorizonandundera6.5percentdiscountrate)tothefollowing
assumptions(indecreasingorderofsensitivity):
quantityofgassavingsperyear(anincreaseinonestandarddeviation
equalsa0.047increasein theBCR)
average weightedbuilder costestimateofbuildingfabricimprovements(1
stddev=0.036inBCR)
averagebuildercostestimateofarainwatertank(1 stddev=0.035in
BCR)
averagebuildercostestimateofasolarhot watersystem(1stddev=
0.024inBCR)
quantityofelectricitysavingsperyear(1stddev= 0.024inBCR)
buildermarginplusGST(1stddev=0.018inBCR)
quantityof watersavings peryear(1stddev=0.015inBCR)
pricepathsof water,gasandelectricity.
The90percentconfidenceintervalforthebenefitcostratiointhis scenariois
showninFigure12. Theintervalliesbetween0.82and1.09.Recallthatthe
centralestimateis0.97.
BCR
Inthisscenario,itisassumedthatall5Starhomes arefittedwithasolarhot
watersystem(inadditiontothebuildingfabricandwaterefficiency
improvements)andnone witharainwatertankcapturing50m2ofroofarea
andconnectedtotoilets. Thisresultsinincreasedenergysavingsbutreduced
watersavings.
Theresultsof thecostbenefitanalysisunderthisscenarioaresummarisedin
Table20andTable21. Ascanbeseenfromthesetables,theresultsofthe
costbenefitanalysisareconsiderablymorefavourablethanthoseunderthe
50:50solarHWS/rainwatertankassumption.Pleasenotethatthesefigures
reflectthebenefitsandcostsofbothbuildingfabricimprovementsandthe
installationofasolarhot watersystem.
Inthisscenario,itisassumedthatall5Starhomes arefittedwitha2kL
rainwatertank(inadditiontothebuildingfabricimprovements)andnone with
asolarhot watersystem. Thisresultsinreducedenergysavingsbutincreased
watersavings.
Theresultsof thecostbenefitanalysisunderthisscenarioaresummarisedin
Table22andTable23.Pleasenotethatthesefiguresreflectthebenefitsand
costsofbothbuildingfabricimprovementsandtheinstallationofarainwater
tank.
Ascanbeseenfromthesetables,theresultsofthecostbenefitanalysisare
somewhatlessfavourablethanthoseunderthe50:50solarHWS/rainwater
tankassumptionandconsiderablylessfavourablethanthoseunderthe100
percentsolarHWSassumption.
Asnotedintheintroductorychapter,theabsenceofdetailedinformationon
administrativecostshasprecludedtheundertaking ofacostbenefitanalysis
fromthecommunitywideperspective.
Usingthisassumptionofthenumberofnewhomesconstructedeachyearand
ascenarioofa10yearlifespanofthe5StarStandard,thestockof Victorian5
Starhomesover whichthe Victoriawidecommunitybenefitsarecalculatedis
showninFigure14.
Whilethe5StarStandardwasextendedtocoveralterationsandrelocationsof
homesfrom1May2008,thesehavenotbeenincludedinthemodelling as
thereisinsufficientdataavailableontherateandamountofadditionsand
alterationstoexistinghomes.
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1991-92 1993-94 1995-96 1997-98 1999-2000 2001-02 2003-04 2005-06
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051
6.2.1 Electricity
The5StarStandardwouldcontributetoreducedcapitalinvestmentin
electricity generation anddistributioninfrastructure,reducedappliancesize and
thegasinputsavingsassociatedwithreducedpeakloadelectricitygeneration
usinggasturbines.
Itshouldbenotedthatthesesavingsfroma Victorian,communitywide
perspectivearedifferentfromthoseaccruingtoindividualhomebuyersor
households. Asexplainedinthepreviouschapter,householdelectricitysavings
duetothe5StarStandardarecalculatedbymultiplyingtheamountof
electricitysavedbyeachhouseholdbytheretailpriceofelectricityfacedbythe
household.
In Victoria,peaksystemresidentialloadsaredriven byairconditioning
installations. Whilethedemandforspaceheatingis largein Victoria,itis
mostlymetbynaturalgas.Hencecoolingloadsaresubstantiallyhigherthan
residentialheatingloadsandarethedriverofpeakcapacityratings. An
inspectionof2007netsystemloadprofilesforthefivedistributionsystemsin
Victoriaindicatesthatupto40percentofthepeak summerloadisair
conditioningload.
Henceanyinitiativetoreduceairconditioningloadshouldleadtoareduction
inthepeaksysteminstalledcapacityrequirementin termsofgenerationand
distributioncosts.
Detailedassumptionsusedinthemodelingandsavingsaresetoutin Table24.
Capacitysavingsoccurbecausetheinstalledcapacityofairconditionersisable
tobereducedin5Starhomes. Airconditioningpenetrationin Victoriaisin
excessof60percentofhouseholdsbutitismuchmorelikelytobeinstalledin
newhomes. Asurveyofoccupantsofrecentlycompleted5Starhomeshas
indicatedthatabout75percentofthesehomesarefittedwithairconditioners
(SV2007).
Next wehaveassumed,alsoonaconservativebasis,thattheairconditioner
sizecanbereducedby30 percentfora5Starhome, whichis3kW. Averaged
acrossallhomes,thisreducesto2.25kW. Wehaveassumeda veryconservative
appliancesavingof$100/kW whichprovidesaone off$225appliance
installationsavingperhousehold. Thisisasavingandabenefitto Victoriaas
mostcoolingappliancesaremanufacturedoverseas. Thatis,itisnot simplya
transferfromoneeconomicagentin Victoriatoanother withinthestate.
Hencethepowersystemcapacitysavedisassessedtobe0.84375kWper5Star
home. Thesesavingsareattributabletodistributionandinstalledgeneration
capacity.Itshouldbenotedthat wehaveexcludedtransmissionand
distributionlosses which wouldincreasethissavingslightly.
Generationavoided/deferredwouldbepeakinggeneration. Wehaveused
opencyclegasturbinesasaproxy which wehaveassumedtocost$800/kWto
install. Thisfigureisbasedonrecentprojectsundertakenin Australia.
Distributioncapacityavoidedhasbeenassessedat$500/kW. Thereisnot
muchpublicinformationaroundthecostsofdistributionsystemsintermsof
avoidedcapacity. Weconstructedthisestimateconservativelybyreviewing
existingdistributiontariffsin Victoria.
Electricity energysavingsatpeaktimesareassumedtobeenergygenerated
throughopencycle gasturbinesusinggas. Wehave conservativelyestimated
gastobepricedat$3.50/GJasaninputtothepowerstationandthatthegasis
convertedtoelectricityat aheatrateof12GJ/MWh(anadjustmenthasbeen
madeforreducedheatrateefficienciesatthepeakbecausethey coincide with
veryhotdays).
6.2.2 Gas
ACIL Tasmanhasassumedaconservative$200savinginapplianceinstallation
asaconsequenceofreducedheatingrequirement.
Theaveragedistributionconnectioncost(acrossallthreedistributors)for
residentialcustomersin Victoriain2008is$1238.20.Someofthesecostsare
TheseGHGsavingsaredistinctfrom,andadditionalto,thesavingsdueto
deferredelectricity andgasgeneratingcapacitydiscussedpreviously.
Thecarbonpriceisapartial valuationthroughapplicationoftheCPRSofthe
harmfuleffectsofGHGemissions thatarenottakenintoaccountinmarket
12 The value of GHG emission reductions estimated here is reflected in the projected energy
prices used to calculate the private benefits of the 5 Star Standard. Recall that the carbon
price arising from an ETS is fed through to the retail price of electricity faced by
households.
A2KLtankcurrentlysavesabout18kL/year. Watersavingscanbe
significantlyincreasedby capturingalargerproportionoftheroofareaand
connectiontootherinternal waterusesinadditiontothetoilet(BEC2007).
However,thegrowingdemandfor waterfromnaturalpopulationgrowth
meansthattheconstructionofnewsourcesisonlydelayedratherthan
eliminatedaltogether.
AsnotedinNWC(2007), thetotalsystemimpactmaybecalculatedasthe
differencebetweenthepresent valuecostof watersources withbusinessas
usual(BAU)demandandthepresent valuecostofthedelayedwatersources.
ThiscalculationiscommonlyreferredtoastheLongRunMarginal Cost
(LRMC)ofnew watersources.LRMCinclude changesinbothcapitaland
operatingcostfora waterutility.
TheLRMC will vary considerablybetweenregions, dependingonthenext
plannedaugmentation.Ithasbeenestimatedbyregulatorsacross Australia
with varyingdegreesofconfidenceandprecision.Someoftheseregulators
havenotmadethedetails oftheirLRMCcalculationspubliclyavailable.Itis
thusunclear whatassumptionshavebeenadoptedandwhethertheyare
consistentacrossallStates.
isseveralyearsold,andmayresultinanunderestimationofthe watersaving
benefits.
Theestimatedvaluesofthesesavingsareshownin Table29.
Theannualcommunitywidebenefitsofthe5StarStandard,brokendownby
thesourceofbenefit,isshowninFigure15.Inthefirstdecadefollowingthe
introductionofthebuildingstandard,mostofthecommunitywidebenefits
arederivedfromtheavoidanceofnew electricityandgasgenerationcapacity
(whichareassumedtobe aonetimebenefitforeachnew5Starhomebuilt).
Thereafter,thelargestsourceofbenefitto Victoriaisthereductionin
greenhousegasemissions duetolowerenergyusagemadepossiblebythe5
StarStandard.
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 2061
$billion
The TornadodiagraminFigure17showsthattheestimatedaggregatebenefits
ofthe5StarStandardto Victoriaismostsensitivetothefollowing
assumptions(indescendingorderofsensitivity):
theestimatedvalueofoneoffelectricitycapacitysavings
reductioninannual CO2emissions
annualgasenergysavings
oneoffgascapacitysavings
annualelectricityinputsavings
LRMCofnew watersources
watersavingsperhome
carbonpricepath.
Thediagramshowstheimpactofaonestandarddeviationchangeineach
assumptiononthe valueoftotalbenefitsto Victoria.Forexample,aone
standarddeviationincreaseinannual CO2emissionreductionper5Starhome
increasesthetotalannual benefitto Victoriaby$27.5million, while aone
standarddeviationincreaseintheLRMCofnew watersourcesraisesthetotal
annualbenefitby $3.0million.
0 10 20 30 40
Impact of 1 std dev increase in parameter on total benefits to Victoria ($m)
However,theseimpactscannotbecountedasnetbenefitsto Victoriaasthey
essentiallyinvolvetransferpaymentsfromhomebuyerstobuildersandthetwo
industries withinthestate.Nevertheless,itisusefultodiscusssomeofthekey
impactsthebuildingstandardhashadontheseindustries.
AccordingtomembersoftheInsulationCouncilof AustraliaandNew
Zealand(ICANZ), which supply55to65percentofresidentialinsulation
requirementsin Victoria,the Victorian5StarStandardhasresultedina
revenueincreaseofabout$20millionperannum.Ofthisfigure,approximately
halfcouldbeattributable toinsulationmanufacturedin Victoria. Accordingto
ICANZ,annualsalesR3.54.0ceilinginsulationbattshaveincreasedby100
percent while annualsalesR1.52.0 wallinsulationbattshaverisenby65
percentsincetheintroductionofthe5StarStandard.
Glasswoolandrockwoolinsulationplantsarecapitalintensive,centralisedand
tendtoserviceallof Australiaandmanufactureproductsforallmarket
segments(includingcommercialandindustrialbuildings).Itisthereforenot
possibletoisolatepreciselytheinvestmentsmadetoservicetheincreased
residentialdemandarisingfromthe5StarStandard.
AccordingtoICANZ, investmentstotallingabout$100millionhavebeen
madeacross Australiasincemid2005toaccommodategrowthresultingfrom
regulationinallstatesforbothresidentialandcommercialinsulationproducts.
Accompanyingthisinvestmentisanincreaseinindustryemploymentofmore
than80personsacrossthecountry.
In Victoria,FletcherInsulationhasinvestedinupgradesofitsglasswool
manufacturingplantinDandenong whileCSRBradfordInsulationhas
investedinupgradesofitsrockwoolmanufacturing plantinClayton.
The5StarBuildingStandardhasincreasedtheadoptionofenergyefficient
glazing(EEG),suchasdoubleglazing,in Victoria. AroundAustralia,theshare
ofEEGisbelievedtobe below5percent.In Victoria,sincetheintroduction
ofthe5StarStandard,thefigurehasrisentonearly15percent.
Inaddition,thepriceofanIGU(adoubleglazedpanelofglasstobeinstalled
intoa window)hasdecreasedfromapproximately$55/m2toabout$35
40/m2.
Sincetheintroductionofthe5StarStandard,DMSGlass(sincepurchasedby
CSR)haveinstalledadoubleglazingplantofsignificantsize(costingabout$6
million) whileMoenGlasshaveupgradedtheirplantatacostofaround$2
million.CSR ispoisedtospendapproximately $7millionininstallingan
additionalplantandnearly$40mininstallinga loweplant.(Lowemissivityor
loweglassconsiderablyenhancestheperformance ofanIGUandcanbeused
inbothsingleanddoubleglazedpanels).Dreamhaven,StegbarandA&L
(Victoriasbiggest windowsupplier)haveallinstallednewIGUlines,andtwo
otherfirmshaveorderedequipmentforlinesoftheirown.
The5StarStandardhasthereforegeneratedsignificantinvestmentand
additionalemploymentin theglassandwindowindustry.
7 Conclusions
ACIL Tasmansevaluationofthe5StarBuildingStandardindicatesthatit
potentiallygeneratessubstantialbenefitsto Victoria intermsofsavingsfrom
deferredconstructionofnewelectricityandgasgenerationcapacity,reduction
ingreenhousegasemissionsduetolowerenergyusage, watersavingsand
deferredneedfornew watersources.
Thesepotentialbenefitsareprojectedtototalapproximately$840millionover
10yearsand$1.9billionover50yearsundera6.5percentdiscountrate,and
$970millionover10yearsand$3.1billionover50yearsundera3.5percent
discountrate.
Fromahomebuyersorhouseholdsperspective,thecosteffectivenessofthe5
StarStandarddependsonthechoiceofasolarhot watersystemorarainwater
tank.
Overa10yeartimehorizon,thebenefitcostratio(BCR)ofthe5Star
Standardisintherangeof1.21.8forahome withasolarhot watersystem
(dependingonthesource ofcostestimates) whiletheratioforahome witha
rainwatertankisonly0.81.2,but wouldbebetterif waterpricesmoreclosely
reflectscarcityorifthere wasgreaterroofcaptureandconnectiontomoreend
uses.
Asnotedin VCEC(2005),thechoicebetweenasolarhot watersystemanda
rainwatertankofferedby the Victorian5StarStandardinvolvesatradeoff
betweentwodifferentobjectives,astheformeraddressestheissueofenergy
efficiency whilethelatter addressestheissueof waterefficiency.
Inaddition,anumberofindirectbenefitsofrainwatertankshavealsobeen
identified,including environmentalandcommunity benefitsthatareinfluenced
bythedesignconfigurationoftherainwatertank.
Conclusions 57
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
8 References
ABCB(2006), RegulationImpactStatement:Proposalto AmendtheBuildingCodeof
AustraliatoIncreasethe Energy EfficiencyRequirements forHouses, AustralianBuilding
CodesBoard,March.
ESC(2005), MetropolitanandRegionalBusinessesWaterPlans200506to200708:
FinalDecision,EssentialServicesCommission,Melbourne, June.
References 58
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
References 59
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
Ceiling
Wall
References 60
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
All homes have R1.5 insulation batts with reflective foil wrap
as a standard inclusion. Around 40% of our homes require an
Builder 2 upgrade to R2.0 wall batts.
Builder 3 We now allow R 2.0 wall batts as standard
We use R2.0 in lieu of R1.5. We use R2.0 as a minimum for
Builder 4 walls.
Builder 5 Job specific - mostly upgrade from R1.3 foil to R2.5
Builder 6 Additional insulation
This is dependant on design and orientation, but we basically
Builder 7 increase insulation up to R2.3
Builder 8 R1.5 batts
Builder 9 None, as our standard requirements meet 5 Star Rating
Builder 10 R2.0 with sisalation (taped)
Builder 11a R2.5 - for 6 Star
An increase in R value and possible space requirements to
accommodate added insulation. No values available at this
Builder 11b time.
Our standard wall insulation is R2.0, if required we can raise it
Builder 12 to R2.5
We don't generally up the wall insulation but have increased
Builder 13 to R2.5 In lieu of R1.5 for 6 star estates
Builder 14 R 2.0 batts
Builder 15 Standard: R2.0
Builder 16 R1.5 sisalation and R2.0 bulk insulation
Builder 17 R2.0 batts plus wrap
Floor
References 61
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
Windows
References 62
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
Seal gaps b/n frame & window frame. Some windows require
Builder 17 double glazing or low-e glass or equivalent.
Shading
Q5. Whatmodificationstoshadingarerequiredtoattainthe5Star
rating?
Builder Response
Shading devices are sometimes included - done on a house
Builder 1 by house basis
Builder 2 None
Again depends on the site etc. Being in Zone 4, keeping heat
Builder 3 in is a must so eaves not as crucial as reducing windows.
A balance is aimed at to obtain maximum energy rating. 300
600mm eaves is found to be best. Covered verandahs (ie
very large eaves) to north facing windows is avoided.
Verandahs (large eaves) are used to west facing orientations
Builder 4 for shading.
Builder 5 Not adopted due to cost
Builder 6 Eaves have been added to get additional points
Builder 7 None
Builder 8 Nil
The design determines eaves or not, we modify other ways
Builder 9 for 5 Star
Builder 10 Generally eaveless is better
Builder 11a -
Builder 11b Generally no changes are being applied.
Builder 12 We would do this only if a client requests this change.
We don't generally provide eaves and shading devices, we
Builder 13 try to keep our designs as standard as possible.
Builder 14 None
Builder 15 Eaves- dependant on design
Builder 16 generally none
Designs without eaves usually require addition of eaves to
north-facing windows. Shade battens/pergola are sometimes
required to patio areas that have sliding door or bifold door
Builder 17 access.
Q6.Howhavehouse plansbeenchangedtomeetthe5StarStandard?
Builder Response
References 63
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
Adaptations to orientations
Q7.Howarehouse plansadaptedtosuitdifferentorientations?
Builder Response
The design of the houses incorporates room locations which
Builder 1 offer multiple siting options.
Double glazing is our key method for increasing performance
of poor performing houses.
Builder 2 All new home designs are assessed so that all orientations
are able to achieve 5 Stars.
Window placements & sizes for better passive design are
Builder 3 altered. Reduced use of verandas etc, difficult given
everyone wants significant glazed areas on to under roof al
fresco areas these days.
Living areas which generally have largest windows are
located to maximise northern exposure. Utility rooms are
Builder 4 located to south. Western exposures are minimised. Standard
house designs are re-oriented (mirrored) to make best use of
available orientation.
Builder 5 With great difficulty & expense - particularly in regard to
windows.
References 64
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
Adaptations to orientations
References 65
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
Builder 12 Any changes to meet the five star requirement are charged to
the client by variation.
Builder 13 We allow for a 5 star rating in our base cost and anything
additional is passed onto the client.
Builder 14 Up to $6000
Builder 15 price is based on 'worst case scenario/orientation'
Builder 16 Generally not a problem
Sale price of home is fixed for all orientations - which includes
Builder 17 the cost for the least efficient orientation.i.e. the cost of the
worst case orientation is already built into the standard house
price.
Other information
Timber flooring
References 66
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
Learning effects
Q10.Howhavethemodificationsandstrategiestomeetthe5Star
Standardchangedbetween2005and2008?
Builder Response
References 67
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
Builder Response
Builder 1 Solar hot water services are cheaper for us to supply than a
tank. We do not offer the customer a choice.
Main decision a commercial one - generally cheaper to install
Builder 2 solar hot water than rainwater tank, partly as installation (ie.
labour, time) is easier and cheaper. Also believe solar hot
water provides greater cost saving, env benefits for client.
Preference of client & site size. Smaller sites more likely
Builder 3 solar as the rainwater tanks take up a large area on the site &
the in ground tanks can creat angle of repose issues on
tighter sites.
Predominantly a customer choice however we find that
customers are more conscious of the need to save water
Builder 4 therefore request that water tanks are used. Customers now
often insist on using rainwater storage tanks larger than the
2000ltr required minimum (ie 5000ltr)
Builder 5 Customer choice based mainly on cost
Builder 6 Company policy. Cheaper at the moment to install solar HWS
Builder 7 Solar hot water system is standard and water tanks are an
option recommended to all clients
Builder 8 Solar hot water we supply as standard. Client can substitute if
required or pay for additional tank.
Builder 9 Solar system is more difficult to install on an existing home so
I prefer this method - price is similar.
Builder 10 Solar hot water is standard as it is more effective.
Builder 11 Financial initially. Now we use both for best ESD and
customer benefit.
We have a solar hot water system as a standard inclusion on
Builder 12 our plans, a lot of people choose to put a tank in as well, not
many swap.
Builder 13 Due to block sizes and the tight spaces that can occur it
easier to provide a solar hot water system.
Builder 14 We offer our designs with solar as it is easier to locate on the
house than tanks - cost is roughly the same
Solar Hot Water: Company Decision/Marketing. Display
Builder 15 Homes use both to demonstrate to client use of
Flushmiser(toilet) and maintain garden
Builder 16 We have a preference for solar hot water, so generally
recommend. Most clients go for both.
Builder 17 Rain water tank is preferred due to the extra administration of
processing gov't rebates.
References 68
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
Builder A 0.169
Builder B 0.004
Builder C 0.007
Builder D 0.220
Builder E 0.028
Builder F 0.294
Builder G 0.029
References 69
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
Builder H 0.064
Builder I 0.158
Builder J 0.028
Ceiling
Wall
Small Medium Large
Builder A From $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
To $270 $290 $315 $395 $375 $445
Builder B From $100 $120 $150 $300 $200 $300
To $200 $300 $450 $600 $500 $900
Builder C From na na na na $1,600 $2,000
To na na na na $1,800 $2,400
Builder D From $0 $817 $957 $1,111 $856 $2,041
To $0 $817 $1,120 $1,199 $856 $2,041
References 70
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
Window
Builder A From $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
To $1,177 $1,328 $1,512 $1,966 $1,966 $3,200
Builder B From $1,200 $1,400 $1,500 $2,500 $2,100 $3,000
To $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $9,000 $7,500 $15,000
Builder C From na na na na $0 $500
To na na na na $3,500 $6,000
Builder D From $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
To $0 $0 $0 $217 $0 $0
Builder E From $200 $250 $300 $400 na na
To $200 $250 $300 $400 na na
Builder F From $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
To $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Builder G From $0 $0 $2,500 $5,000 na na
To $5,000 $5,000 $7,500 $10,000 na na
Builder H From $140 $280 $224 $364 $448 $868
To $287 $574 $494 $560 $988 $1,849
Builder I From na $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
To na $1,650 $1,600 $1,600 $1,600 $2,200
Builder J From $4,500 $5,500 $6,000 $6,500 $7,000 $9,000
To $1,000 $6,000 $7,000 $7,200 $8,000 $10,500
Shading
References 71
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
Builder A From $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
To $440 $660 $880 $1,700 $1,700 $1,700
Builder D From $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
To $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Builder E From $0 $0 $0 $0 na na
To $0 $0 $0 $0 na na
Builder F From $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
To $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Builder G From $0 $0 $0 $0 na na
To $0 $0 $0 $0 na na
Builder H From $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
To $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Builder I From na $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
To na $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Builder J From $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
To $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Data source:
Other
Small Medium Large
Builder A From $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
To $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Builder B From $450 $450 $450 $600 $450 $600
To $600 $600 $600 $1,000 $900 $1,200
Builder C From na na na na $0 $0
To na na na na $0 $0
Builder D From $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $135
To $0 $89 $88 $133 $0 $179
Builder H From $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
To $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Builder I From na $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
To na $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
References 72
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
Builder J From $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
To $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Data source:
Total
Small Medium Large
Rainwater tank
Capital Installation Total
References 73
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
Builder 6
Builder 10 $2,477
Builder 14
Builder 15
Builder 1 $1,500
Builder 10 $1,740
Builder 11 $2,500 $1,500 $4,000
Builder 12 $3,950
Builder 13 $1,894 (excl RECs) $1,034 $1,678
Builder 14
Builder 15 $2,300
Builder 16 $3,000 (excl RECs) $500 $2,250
Builder 17
Note: The adjustment for RECs is assumed to be $1,250 for builders whose capital cost estimates
exclude RECs.
References 74
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
B A primer on insulation
ThisintroductiontobuildinginsulationisdrawnfromChapter7ofthe Energy
SmartHousing ManualpublishedbySustainableEnergy Authority Victoriain
2002.
Principles of insulation
Resistancetoheatflowis achievedbytheuseofeitherbulkinsulationor
reflectiveinsulation.Bulk insulationtrapsmillionsoftinypocketsofstillairor
othergases withinitsstructure. Theseairpocketsprovidetheresistancetoheat
flow.Bulkinsulationreducesradiant,convective andconductedheatflow
Bulkinsulationisavailableasbatts,blanketsandboards,orasloosefill which
ispumped,blownorplacedbyhandintoan area.Battsandblanketscanbe
madefromthefollowingmaterials:
Glasswool(fibreglass)madefrommeltedglassspunintoaflexiblematof
finefibres
Rockwoolmadefrom volcanicrockmeltedathightemperaturesand
spunintoamatoffinefibres
Natural woolmadefromsheeps woolformedintobattsorblankets
Polyestermadefrompolyesterfibres(includingrecycledPETbottles)
spunintoaflexiblematt
Rockwoolisdenserthan glasswool,soR valueper unitthicknessishigherand
providesbettersoundabsorptionqualities.However,itisalsomoreexpensive.
References 75
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
Reflectivefoillaminatefoillaminatedtopaper withglassfibre
reinforcement
Multicellreflectivefoilproductstwotofourlayersoflaminatedfoil
separatedbypartitioningtoprovideaone,two,orthreelayeredcell
structure
Expandableconcertinastylefoildoublesidedreflectivefoilformedinto
anexpandableconcertina
Foilbondedtobulkinsulationreflectivefoilbondedtobatts,blanketsor
polystyreneboards
Bulkinsulationandheatflow Reflectiveinsulationandheatflow
References 76
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
Energyefficiencyinvestmentsofteninvolveanupfrontcapitalcost, whilethe
benefitsarerealisedinincrementsinthefuture.Evenintheabsenceof
inflation,adollarreceivednowis worthmorethanadollarreceivedatsome
timeinthefuture, whilea dollar'scostincurrednowismoreonerousthanone
accruingatsomefuturetime.
Inorderfor benefitsandcoststobecompared,bothforagiveninvestment
andacrossdifferentinvestments,theyshouldbeconvertedtoacommonunit
ofmeasurementthatremovestheeffectsoftimingdifferences. This
conversionisdonebyusingadiscountrate.
Theappropriatediscountratetouseinaninvestmentevaluationdependson
whoseperspectiveisbeingconsidered.Ifaninvestmentisassessedfroma
publicperspective(taking accountofallbenefitsandcoststosociety),the
discountrateshouldreflecttheperspectiveofsocietyasa whole. Thus,the
guidelinesforpublicsectorinvestmentsandregulationimpactstatementsin
Australiarecommendusingthesocialopportunitycostofcapital(OCC)asa
discountrate.
Regulationimpactassessmentstypicallyassessprivatecosteffectivenessonthe
assumptionthatindividualsusetheestimatedsocialopportunitycostofcapital
astheirdiscountrate. AstheProductivityCommission(PC)hasnoted,the
averageprivatediscountrateislikelytobehigherthantheestimatedsocial
discountrateusedinmanyregulationimpactassessments,andsothebenefits
toindividualscouldbelessthanthosepredicted.Inanycase, asthePCargues,
ifprivatecosteffectivenessisbeingassessed,thentheprivateopportunitycost
ofcapitalfortherelevant individualshouldbeused. The(nominal)bank
lendingrateforhomeloansfacedbymosthomebuyersatthetimeofthis
reports writingisapproximately9.5percent.
The VictorianGovernmenthassetthreebenchmarkdiscountratesfor
infrastructureprojects(Partnerships Victoria2005), whichremaincurrentasof
thisreports writing. Theyhavebeenspecifiedinordertoallowfordifferences
inriskacrossthefollowingsectorsandarebasedonariskfreerateof3.5
percent:
accommodationandrelatedservices(socialOCCof5.5percentinreal
terms)
water,transportandenergy(6.5percent)
telecommunications,mediaandtechnology(9percent).
References 77
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
Toevaluatethe costsandbenefitsofthe5StarBuildingStandardfromthe
homebuyersorhouseholdsperspective, ACIL Tasmanhaschosentousea
centraldiscountrateof6.5percent withsensitivity analysisundertakenat
alternativeratesof3.5percentand9.5percent.
Datasources:ProductivityCommission2005, NSWTreasury2007,Partnerships
Victoria2005,VictorianGuidetoRegulation2007
References 78
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
Thisappendixpresentsthebroadapproachtakeninthisaspectofenergy
marketmodelling,includingthedevelopmentofbothsupplyanddemand
inputs.
Modelling assumptions
Theassumptionscoveredinthisappendixareconsideredunderfourheadings:
Electricityconsumption,includingenergyandmaximumdemand
projections whichtakeintoaccountexistingenergy conservationmeasures,
distributedrenewablegenerationandtheeffectsofthedemandside
responsetothehigherpricesresultingfromanETS.
Newentrantcosts,thisconcernstheassumptions madeaboutthe
generationtechnologiesavailableby2020 andthelongrunmarginalcost
(LRMC)theyneedtocoverinordertoenterthemarket.
Marketsupply, whichcoversthepowerstationsavailabletogeneratein
themarketandincludesassumptionsaboutretirementsandnewentryas
wellasplannedandunplannedoutages.
Contractcover,setsout ACIL Tasmansassumptionsconcerningthe
proportionofenergygeneratedinanyperiodthatis coveredbyswap
contracts. Thisisanimportantinputtothemodellingastheproportionof
generationthatisuncontractedaffectsthe wayin which PowerMarkmodels
priceoutcomes.
Electricity consumption
Growthinannualenergy andpeakloadareimportantinputstotheelectricity
marketsimulationprocess.Peakloadistheaverage maximuminstantaneous
References 79
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
demandforelectricityplacedonthesystemovera givenperiodoftime,
measuredinMW.Energy istheamountofelectricityusedbythesystem
duringagivenperiodoftime,measuredinGWh(orMWh). Thesetwoinputs,
describedonaregionbyregionbasis,broadlydescribetheenergy
consumptionoftheNationalElectricityMarket(NEM).
Forthebusinessasusual scenario wehaveusedtheofficialforecastofregional
summerandwinterpeak demandsandannual energyto2017publishedby
NationalElectricityMarketManagement Company (NEMMCO)inits2007
StatementofOpportunities(SOO).Projectingforwardto2020 wehaveused
theannualaverage growthratesforenergyconsumptionoverthisperiodto
projectbothenergyandmaximumdemandto2020.
TheenergyandmaximumdemandprojectionsadoptedfromtheSOOarethe
mediumenergyand50%probabilityofexceedencemaximumdemand.
TheenergyforecastisrelatedtoasetofunderlyingGDPgrowthassumptions
putsimply,theenergyforecastusedinthescenariosassumesthemostlikely
economicgrowthconditionsineachregionofthe NEMwhichare
developedbytheNationalInstituteofEconomicandIndustryResearch
(NIEIR). Themaximumdemandforecasttakesintoaccounttypicalambient
temperatureconditionsandisdevelopedbyeachof theregionaltransmission
authorities.
Thenewentrycostsareestimatedwithinafinancialmodelthatencompasses
assumptionsconcerningthermalefficiency,thecostofgas,the weighted
average costofcapitalandthecapital costsofbringingaplantintocommercial
operation.
Intheprojection,newplantisintroducedwheneverthedispatch weighted
poolpriceofthenewentrantintherelevantregion achievesoris verycloseto
References 80
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
Thisprocessbringsinnewcapacityundercommercialincentivesandwecheck
thisrateofincreasetoseeifitisaffectingreservemarginsandtheprobability
ofachangeinunservedenergylevels.Infactthecapacityofnew entryplantin
thisprojectbringsaboutaslightreductioninthereserveplantmarginupto
2020.
Wehaveassumedthatsomeofthelowandzeroemissiontechnologiesnow
underdevelopmentare available asnewentrantsby thenandsomearestillin
theirdemonstrationstages. Wehaveassumedthatgeothermalenergyisa
technicallyandcommercially viablenewentrantin 2020 withthemain
constraintonitsgrowthbeingthetimetakentodrillanddevelopnew
generationandbuildthe interconnectionneededtobringthisenergyto
market.
Weassumedthatcarboncaptureandstorageforcoalfiredplantsisatthe
demonstrationratherthancommercialstage, asareintegratedgasifying and
combinedcycle(IGCC) CCSplants.
Weassumenuclearisnotanoptionin Australiain2020. Thecurrent
AustralianGovernmenthasruleditoutof Australiasgenerationmixand,
giventhetimerequiredtoputinplacea licensingregimeandforanuclear
planttoplanned,approvedandbuilt,itis veryunlikelythatone wouldbe
contributingto Australiasgenerationby2020.
Market supply
Whentakentogether withtheelectricityconsumptionforecast,the
assumptions regardingplantadditionsandretirementsdeterminesthesupply
demandbalanceandarecriticaltothemodellingresults.
Contract cover
Contractcovermeasurestheextentto which generatorshavetheirpoolprice
exposurecoveredbyfinancialswapcontracts(twowayhedges)13.Inmodelling
poolmarkets,thelevelof swapcontractcoverisadrivingfactorinpriceand
13 Caps impact on generator offering behaviour only to the extent that they relate to plant
capacity that would normally be offline.
References 81
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
dispatchoutcomes.Basedsolelyonshortrunanalysis,agenerator willusually
offercontractedcapacity atmarginalcost(saveforbelowmarginal costbidsin
respectofMinGenandrampupneeds14),andwillbidtomaximisenet
revenuesfromtheremaininguncontractedcapacity.
WithinPowerMark,specificationofswapcontractlevelsmeansspecification
oftheamountofcapacity tobeofferedatorbelowmarginalcost.Itis
estimatedbyreferenceto recentmarketexperience andadjustedovertimeon
thebasisofananalysisofcontractingincentives.
ACIL Tasmansanalysistodateindicatesthatthelowestoftheoffpeakhours
areheavilycontractedasaproportionofload, whereascapsandothermore
exoticoptionsareaddedtoswapsinthepeakperiodstoprovidecosteffective
riskmanagement.
14 MinGen (for minimum generation) is the estimated minimum level at which a plant can be
technically and economically operated (for flame control and damage limitation).
Generators usually offer this level of capacity at near zero or substantially negative prices in
order to avoid being offloaded by the central dispatcher. It is rare but does occur for
the pool price to settle at a negative offload price. Generators also tend to offer capacity
at below marginal cost for periods when they are intent on rampingup in order to have
the ability to offer greater amounts of capacity in a subsequent period, when pool prices are
expected to be higher.
References 82
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
15
http://www.dpc.vic.gov.au/domino/Web_Notes/newmedia.nsf/b0222c68d27626e2ca256c
8c001a3d2d/7c8e19492e25b999ca257337007fc3ab!OpenDocument and
http://www.dpc.vic.gov.au/domino/Web_Notes/newmedia.nsf/798c8b072d117a01ca256c
8c0019bb01/39d04f2fea3a84b8ca2573d600735d5a!OpenDocument
References 83
Evaluation of the Victorian 5 Star Building Standard
F Key assumptions
Alistofkeyassumptions underpinningtheanalysescontainedinthisstudyis
showninthetablebelow.
References 84