Forecasting construction duration in a project can be achieved by many means and

depends on the stage of construction planning. Forecasting construction duration informs

the project owner to allow the contractor to complete the work within given time. On the
other hand, the contractor could prepare realistic and practical detailed schedule at the
minimum costs within the limited time frame.
Definitions
Construction duration can be defined as one or a combination of the
following:

1) The construction duration arising from critical path in which

duration for items of work or activity in sequence cannot be reduced
further (Barrie and Paulson, 1992).

2) Duration means the time required to complete a specified task or

activity. And, construction duration is the time determined by the
owners needs to occupy, utilize, or rent the completed space of the
project (Callahan et al., 1992).
3) Construction duration is a duration resulting from an examination
of one or more methods of carrying out the works on the basis of
minimum cost, it is usually estimated in the first instance for normal
condition (Pilcher, 1992).

4) Construction duration refers to a given time to execute and

complete item(s) of work using all project information and
resources within an estimated or predicted cost (Kwaku, 1994).

5) Construction time can be defined as the elapsed period from the

commencement of site works to the completion time of building to
the client. It is usually specified prior to the commencement of
construction (Nkado, 1995).

In this research, construction duration is defined as the time frame given

by the owner for the contractor to complete the project under normal
work conditions, normal practice of construction, and based on the
minimum costs. It starts when the contractor receives the instruction to
proceed and ends at the completion of construction works on site. It also
includes delays caused by unanticipated circumstances, e.g. alteration of
works (changed conditions and change orders), extra works, supply of
 materials, location, weather, and site work conditions. Major changes that
after the scope of work significantly are not included.

Scheduling and Schedulers

Control of construction duration needs a clear systematic plan and
commitment on the part of the people involved (McNulty, 1982). The
systematic plan is known as schedule. The scheduling is the determination
of the timing of activities and follows logically from the planning process
(Callahan et al., 1992). It is normally used for controlling construction
duration (Callahan et al., 1992). To both the owner and contractor,
scheduling plays an important role in financial proposal and budgeting
(Peurifoy and Ledbetter, 1985; Kaka and Price, 1991). The schedule is
prepared by the scheduler and/or planner. In preparing a schedule, the
scheduler or planner may meet or discuss with some people for crucial
information, e.g. estimator, manager, superintendent, sub-contractor,
architect, engineer, owner, and materials suppliers (Callahan et al.,
1992). They may need to study the contract, drawings, specification, and
perhaps, conduct site reconnaissance. Further, they need to know about
manpower and productivity. (Callahan et al., 1992; Pilcher, 1992). Apart
from the schedule, it is also necessary to prepare systematic monitoring
to provide early warning of restraints as well as imaginative action to
overcome them (McNulty, 1982).
Nowadays, computers may assist the scheduler or planner by storing and
sorting the information, as well as performing mathematical calculations
but they do not provide the intellectual direction (Callahan et al., 1992).
Human skill and experience are still necessary, i.e. the scheduler or
planner may use experience of similar projects in estimating the
construction duration (Pilcher, 1992). The scheduler or planner may use
their judgement according to various constraints, e.g. location and
access, weather, space and site work conditions, complexity of the
project, quality of workmanship, delivery of materials, and economic or
marketing conditions (Pilcher, 1992).
Forecasting Construction Duration
1. Inputs required:
The basic inputs for project scheduling are:
1) contract;

2) drawings;

3) specification;

4) resources (materials, manpower and productivity); and

5) other constraints, e.g. site conditions and weather (Burgess and

White, 1979; Fisk, 1982; McNulty, 1982; Peurifoy and Ledbetter,
1985; Ashworth, 1988; Barrie and Paulson, 1992; Callahan et al.,
1992; Pilcher, 1992).
The contract may clearly specify the completion date. Therefore, the
scheduler or planner may use this time frame to prepare the
schedule together with other factor constraints. First, it is usual to
prepare the schedule for normal conditions by assuming one or
more methods of carrying out the works on the basis of minimum
cost (Nkado, 1992; Pilcher, 1992). When it is necessary to shorten
the duration for an activity or a project, crashing may be done, e.g.
increase manpower and overtime working. This process leads to
increase in construction cost (Puerifoy and Ledbetter, 1985; Barrie
and Paulson, 1992; Pilcher, 1992).

Drawings contain physical features of the project: 1) function; 2)

height; 3) systems (e.g. plumbing, fire fighting, and lighting); and
complexity (Ireland, 1985; Ashworth, 1988; Pilcher, 1992; Nkado,
1992). In other words, the information on the drawings is presented
in form of dimensions and descriptions (Ashworth, 1988). Materials
and installed equipment for the project, as well as the plant and
construction equipment can also be known from the drawings
(Ashworth, 1988; Peurifoy and Ledbetter, 1992). Meanwhile, the
contract may specify the constraints of work, e.g. construction cost,
duration, payment, inspection, method or conditions of works,
delays, and damages. In addition, the specification may address the
quality of materials, workmanship, and method of working (Barrie
and Paulson, 1992).
 2. Resource scheduling
The scheduler or planner has to allocate the resources, i.e.
materials and manpower (or working team) to each activity or task
at the proper time they are needed. Thus, the resource schedule
deals with levelling and allocation of all necessary resources
(Peurifoy and Ledbetter, 1985). The former smoothes out the peaks
and valley in resource use within the project duration. The latter
determines the shortest project duration consistent with the limited
resources.

4. Other judgements
They also have to provide timing for preliminary works, e.g.
construction plant, and mobilization (Peurifoy and Ledbetter, 1985).
This often includes time for remedial works and site clearing after
completing the construction.

Site reconnaissance enables the scheduler or planner to adjust the

schedule against various constraints, e.g. location and access,
weather, space and site work conditions, complexity of the project,
quality of workmanship, delivery of materials, and economic or
marketing conditions (Barrie and Paulson, 1992; Pilcher, 1992).

Some Methods for Project Scheduling

There are many forms of schedules, e.g. Gantt or bar chart, Critical Path
Method (CPM), and Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT).
Each has its own advantages, disadvantages, and application areas for
which it is most appropriate. They are means of visual presentation of a
construction program (Pilcher, 1992), and used for project planning,
management, and control (Burgess and White, 1979; Fisk, 1982;
McNulty, 1982; Barrie and Pualson, 1992).

Gantt chart simply represents the activity and its duration by a bar. It is
sometimes called Bar chart. Gantt or bar chart can include a great deal of
anticipated and actual information for; 1) cashflow; 2) manpower and/or
manpower by trade; and 3) productivity (Barrie and Paulson, 1992;
Callahan et al., 1992).
In CPM scheduling, a construction project is sub-divided into several
activities. An activity is a single work step that has a recognizable
beginning and finishing or ending (Callahan et al., 1992). In other words,
the activity is a time-consuming task. The basis of CPM is network
diagram, i.e. which needs nodes and arrows. It deals with four aspects:
1) activities identification; 2) logical sequence,; 3) network construction;
and 4) allocation of resources (Barrie and Paulson, 1992). Callahan et
al. (1992) divided the development of CPM schedule into six phases:
1) understanding the project;

2) conceptual approach definition;

3) physical creation of the schedule;

4) computerization;

5) refinement; and

6) reproduction.

Further, physical creation of CPM scheduling is divided into eight steps: 1)

select software;

2) divide project into several activities and sub-networks;

3) develop responsibility code;

4) develop information code;

5) develop specific sub-networks;

6) build or plot the logic diagram;

7) numbering the activities; and

8) linking the sub-networks together.

The longest interconnected path of activities through the network

called critical path becomes the project duration. On the critical path
means that the duration for items of work or activity on the sequence
cannot be reduced further without paying extra costs (Peurifoy and
Ledbetter, 1985; Barrie and Paulson, 1992).
PERT is like CPM scheduling. It uses logical diagram to analyze
performance time. It overcomes difficulties associated with duration of
activities which could not be estimated reliably. PERT enables the
scheduler to estimate the most probable project duration and the
probability that the project or any portion of the project will complete at
particular time. PERT focuses on events or nodes, called event-oriented.
Unlike the CPM, it requires three estimates of duration for each activity:
1) optimistic (high productivity); 2) pessimistic (low productivity); and 3)
most likely duration (Peurifoy and Ledbetter, 1985; Barrie and Paulson,
1992; Callahan et al., 1992; Pilcher, 1992).
Factor Affecting Construction Duration
The following are some factors affecting construction duration and its
estimate.

1. Size of project
Size of the project can be represented in terms of functional or floor
area, i.e. in ft2, or m2. The larger the building size, the more
complex the construction, thus needing longer duration to complete
(Sadashiv, 1979; Ireland, 1985; Ashworth, 1988; Pilcher, 1992;
Nkado, 1992).
2. Function
Function implies type of building and required engineering systems,
e.g. plumbing, fire fighting, and lighting (Ashworth, 1988; Pilcher,
1992). It is an important facet in designing of construction project
(Ashwoth, 1988). Function of a building implies business target that
the building serves. It can be considered as qualitative variables,
e.g. office, retail, and other buildings (Nkado, 1992).

3. Height
Height of building, represented by number of floors (or storeys)
affects the construction duration (Sadashiv, 1979; Ireland, 1985).
The height of building indicates construction technique, major
 equipment used, and construction sequence (Sadashiv, 1979;
Callahan et al., 1992).
4. Complexity
Complexity implies unfamiliarity with work (Pilcher, 1992). The
complexity of building impacts the form of construction, i.e. building
frame, foundation, and systems (Ireland, 1985; Ashworth, 1988).
Complexity can be represented in form of construction equipment,
method and sequence (Sadashiv, 1979; Callahan et al., 1992; Chan
and Kumaraswamy, 1995).
5. Quality
Quality can be classified by variables or attributes, i.e. appearance,
strength, stability, materials used, performance finish. Appearance
of the building, e.g. external facing is one aspect of quality
(Ashworth, 1988). Sadashiv (1979) considered number of major
finishing works in duration forecasting instead of a defined quality
index.

6. Location
The location of the building has a significant effect on the
construction duration (Chan and Kumaraswamy (1995). It reflects
restrictions or easements that exist and availability of services
(Burgess and White, 1979). It effects supply of resources, e.g.
materials, and equipment (Sadashiv, 1979). Consequently, it also
effects the use of major equipment (Sadashiv, 1979), and
productivity on site (Callahan et al., 1992).
There are other possible factors affecting the construction duration, e.g.
construction planning (Sadashiv, 1979; Ireland, 1985), design-
construction interface coordination (Ireland, 1985), dispute per unit of
time (Ireland, 1985). Type and/or variation to the contract refers to risk
allocation management structure and payment modalities (Burgess and
White, 1979; Ireland, 1985; Chan and Kumaraswamy, 1995). By
contrast, Walker (1994) concluded that client related factors have more
significant affect on speed of construction, or construction duration, than
the contract type. Callahan et al.(1992) pointed out that quality of
supervision, labour training and motivation, can also be affecting factors.
Al Tabtabai et al. (1997) developed the models for expert judgment in
forecasting construction project completion. The factors are: 1)
performance of management; 2) cash flow situation; 3) material and
equipment availability; 4) labour productivity; 5) weather and
environment influences; 6) rework, extra work, and work difficulty; 7)
percentage of work completed; and 8) trend in schedule variance.
Project Delays and their Causes:
Project duration is normally specified by the owner. The completion and
operation of many buildings are restricted as they are seasonal in nature,
e.g. a school must open in September, a retail outlet must open for
booking in August to meet the Christmas sale season, and an apartment
must open in May to reach the spring market (McNulty, 1982).
Construction duration affects the financial interest to the owner, e.g.
selling price, and on-site management. Then, the contractor is
traditionally responsible for the detailed planning and scheduling to
ensure the completion of the project within the owners time frame.
However, the actual construction duration consist of two parts:

1) contract time; and

2) delay.

Delay is the time during which some parts of construction project has
been extended or not performed because of unanticipated circumstances
(Barrie and Paulson, 1992). When necessary, the contractor may need to
allocate an additional budget for corrective actions to maintain the
schedule, otherwise, it may cause liquidated damages charges against the
contractor for failure to meet the owners requirements (Fisk, 1982;
McNulty, 1982).

Alteration of working drawing is one of a major factor affecting the

construction duration, i.e. it may cause a delay beyond the contract time
(Sadashiv, 1979; Chan and Kumaraswamy 1995). Barrie and Paulson
(1992) summarized causes of delay into four areas:

1) changed conditions and change orders;

2) extra works;
3) owner or his/her agent; and

4) third party contractors.

However, other possible delays may result from location, weather, site
work conditions, labour productivity, sub-contractor, supply and delivery
of materials (Burgess and White, 1979; Sadashiv, 1979; Callahan et al.,
1992; Chan and Kumaraswamy, 1995).
Relationship between Cost and Time:
There is a relationship between cost and duration (or time). In
construction planning and scheduling, alternative duration and costs for
activities are always considered. For example, when it is necessary to
shorten the duration of activities or project, the cost may increase. This is
called crashing.
Sadashiv (1979) found that some of the independent variables used in
regression model for cost forecasting also have major affects on
construction duration, e.g. height, and types of major equipment.
However, he used the number of major finishing works in his duration
forecasting model instead of the quality index as used in the cost
forecasting model.

Ireland (1985) found a relationship between construction time and cost.

In his study, the construction time and cost are dependent on some
common independent variables:

1) construction planning during design;

2) variation to the contract; and

3) complexity of form of construction.

In addition, number of storeys, design-construction interface co-

ordination, and dispute per unit of time also affect the construction time
while architectural quality, and use of nominated sub-contractors affect
only the construction cost.
Kaka and Price (1991) found strong relationship between the cost and
duration of construction projects that can be used in contractors
budgeting systems and corporate financial model. Investors of project can
utilize the relationship for financial appraisal and budgeting. Estimating of
project cost can be used to derive the expected duration and vice versa.

Pre-design Estimating of Project Duration:

Pre-design estimating of construction duration is important. Chan and
Kumaraswamy (1995) noted that pre-contract determination of the
construction duration is essential for proper cash flow forecasting by both
the contractor and the client. It can facilitate optimal resource allocation,
financial planning, profitability and efficiency of capital flow within a pre-
determined time limit.

Based on the inputs required for scheduling, all the current methods of
scheduling seem to be efficiently applied only when the detailed design is
completed. Normally, the contractor must complete this planning prior to
bidding for the project (Peurifoy and Ledbetter, 1985). Without sufficient
information, the schedule can be prepared based on only the best guess,
i.e. using experience of similar projects in estimating the construction
duration (Pilcher, 1992).

Nkado (1992) established a computerized construction time information

system for planning of buildings at the early stage of design. Two key
assumptions are:

1) the building team is competent and efficacious in setting up the

building process and working within local norms and organization form to
bring the project to a successful completion; and

2) the frame of reference for construction times is based on the overall

time consistent with the minimum direct cost of construction to the
contractor.

Al Tabtabai et al. (1997) developed the multi-regression and neural

network models to capture the decision-making procedure of project
experts involved in schedule monitoring and prediction. The models were
applied to a multi-storey building under construction. They provided the
convenient and realistic generation of revised schedules at appropriate
junctures during the progress of the project. The accuracy of the models
mainly depends on the soundness of the underlying expert decision, i.e.
inputs generated from judgment of the experts are not free of bias.
However, they concluded that modelling construction experience to use in
future projects can help significantly in achieving project objectives.
A model for forecasting the construction duration should be valid in
application for a reasonably long period of time without the effects from
changes in price level. The price indices may not be applied or included in
the model. The model should be slightly affected by change in
construction technology in long term application. Today, the construction
industry is still labour intensive. Automation which has reduced the labour
force in manufacturing industry, has not been matched in the construction
industry (Ashworth, 1988). This means

construction technology has changed only slightly over time.

Summary
A variety of methods and techniques for construction planning and
scheduling exist but they are based mainly on the completed design and
details of project, e.g. Gantt chart, CPM, and PERT. Construction schedule
is normally prepared by the contractors at the time they submit bids.
Without sufficient information, the scheduling and forecasting of
construction duration is based on the experience of the planner or
scheduler. A number of researches found strong relationship between
construction duration and cost. This leads to the possibility to build a
model for forecasting the construction duration at pre-design phase. The
model may consist of part of variables as they are used in the cost
forecasting models. The main variables shall consist of building features,
e.g. function, structural system, height, foundation, exterior and interior
finishing. Adjustment of the construction duration by means of indices is
not necessary.