Technical Note
Landslides (2011) 8:527540 Tahir Ali Akbar I Sung Ryong Ha
DOI 10.1007/s10346-011-0260-1
Received: 2 August 2010
Accepted: 4 March 2011 Landslide hazard zoning along Himalayan Kaghan
Published online: 15 April 2011
Springer-Verlag 2011
Valley of Pakistanby integration of GPS, GIS,
and remote sensing technology
Abstract This paper presents a methodology for developing a
landslide hazard zonation map by integration of global position-
ing system (GPS), geographic information system (GIS), and
remote sensing (RS) for Western Himalayan Kaghan Valley of
Pakistan. The landslides in the study area have been located and
mapped by using GPS. Eleven causative factors such as landuse,
elevation, geology, rainfall intensity, slope inclination, soil, slope
aspect, distances from main road, distances from secondary
roads, and distances from main river and those from trunk
streams were analyzed for occurrence of landslides. These factors
were used with a modied form of pixel-based information value
model to obtain landslide hazard zones. The matrix analysis was
performed in remote sensing to produce a landslide hazard
zonation map. The causative factors with the highest effect of
landslide occurrence were landuse, rainfall intensity, distances
from main road, distances from secondary roads, and distances
from main river and those from trunk streams. In conclusion, we
found that landslide occurrence was only in moderate, high, or
very high hazard zones, and no landslides were in low or very low
hazard zones showing 100% accuracy of our results. The landslide
hazard zonation map showed that the current main road of the
valley was in the zones of high or very high hazard. Two new safe
road routes were suggested by using the GIS technology.
Keywords Landslide hazard zonation . Information value model .
GPS . GIS . Remote sensing
Introduction
The landslides are among the most damaging natural hazards in
Himalayan region (Saha et al. 2005). In Western Himalayan
Kaghan Valley of Pakistan, landslides become a major threat to
agricultural lands, settlements, roads, transportation, and tourism
industry. Due to frequent occurrence of landslides in the valley,
people lost their lives, houses, and properties. According to a
global damage statistics, landslides occurrence was the cause of
deaths of about 1,000 people every year, and the estimated
property damage was about US $4 billion (Lee and Pradhan
2007). The frequency of landslide occurrence in Kaghan Valley
was higher along road sides which often blocked the main road of
the valley.
The monsoon intense rainfall is the most common trigger of
landslides in Kaghan Valley. The steep terrain of very high
mountains and land degradation due to anthropogenic activities
contribute further to landslide occurrence. The anthropogenic
activities include deforestation and construction of roads on steep
slopes. The deforestation was due to illegal wood cutting,
residential uses of fuel wood, and cultivation of crops on sloppy
bare lands. Due to limited at land, cultivation of crops on sloppy
bare lands was common, and the roads were constructed by
excavating the slopes.
The landslide hazard zone mapping is important to analyze
hazards and manage disasters more effectively in mountainous
valleys (Saha et al. 2005). Geospatial technologies like global
positioning system (GPS), geographic information system (GIS),
and remote sensing (RS) are useful in the hazard assessment, risk
identication, and disaster management for landslides. The GPS
is a space-based global navigation satellite system which provides
the information of position and time anywhere in the world in all
weather conditions (El-Rabbany 2006). Previous studies showed
the application of GPS for mapping landslides (Peyret et al. 2008;
Su et al. 2009). GIS is used for collection, storage, and analysis of
processes where geographic location is involved (Stan 1993). The
use of GIS for landslide hazard mapping was found in various
studies (Ayalew et al. 2004; Baum et al. 2005; Chau and Chan
2005; Colombo et al. 2005; Havenith et al. 2006; Sato and Harp
2009). Remote sensing is the science in which information is
acquired about the surface of earth without physically being in
contact with it. Remote sensing was also used for monitoring and
mapping of landslides in various studies (Liao et al. 2010; Zhang
et al. 2010; Ray et al. 2010). The objectives of this study were (a)
analyzing the effects of causative factors on landslide occurrence,
(b) developing landslide hazard zonation map using causative
factors and information value model, and (c) applying hazard
zonation map to identify safe road routes.
Study area and data
The study area is located in northeast of Pakistan as shown in
Fig. 1. The most common types of landslides in the study area
are debris falls triggered by rainfalls as shown in Fig. 2. Debris
fall is downward falling of poorly consolidated earth or rocky
debris on a slope. We discussed the development of GIS maps
for elevation, slope inclination, slope aspect, landuse, drainage,
roads, rainfall intensity, geology, soil, and landslides in the
subsequent paragraphs.
A 10m_DEM as shown in Fig. 3 was prepared in GIS
software (ARC/INFO 3.5) and Remote Sensing Software (PCI
Geomatics 6.3) by scanning, digitizing, and processing a
contour map at a scale of 1:25,000 for Kaghan Valley. The
contour map was provided by Tarbela-Watershed Management
Project of Government of NWFP, Pakistan.
In most of landslide hazard analysis studies, landslide
distribution map was prepared using aerial photographs.
Devoli et al. (2007) created a digital landslide database for
Nicaragua to provide the scientic community and national
authorities with a tool for landslide hazard assessment,
emergency management, landuse planning, development of
early warning systems, and the implementation of public and
private policies. Nicaragua is the largest country located in
Central America, and it is bordered by Honduras to the north
and Costa Rica to the south. In Japan, most of deep-seated
Landslides 8 & (2011) 527
 Technical Note

Fig. 3 Landslide distribution on DEM of Kaghan Valley. DEM was obtained by

digitizing the contour of scale 1:25,000 with contour interval of 40 m
Fig. 1 Location of study area (Kaghan Valley). It is located in northeast of Pakistan

landslide maps are published and delivered from website by the study area to map the distribution of existing landslides.
National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster However, in order to get movement of landslides in the study
Prevention (http://www.bosai.go.jp/e/index.html; Yoshimatsu area, we used a differential GPS. In differential GPS setup, one
and Abe 2006). The aerial photographs were not available for GPS receiver was placed at the base station and other receiver

Fig. 2 Landslides in Kaghan Valley.

Most common types of landslides are
debris falls triggered by rainfall

528 Landslides 8 & (2011)

was carried in the eld for landslide survey. The accuracy of
this GPS was 1 m. The landslide distributions prepared using
GPS and GIS were overlaid on Digital Elevation Model (DEM)
as shown in Fig. 3.
The GIS maps of elevation, slope inclination, and slope
aspect were obtained from this DEM. The elevation ranges
from 959 to 3,800 m. About 85% of study area lies in the
elevation range of 2,601 to 3,800 m. The slope inclination map
(Fig. 4) shows six slope classes which are 010, 1120, 2130,
3140, 4150, and 5188. About 69.24% of study area has a
slope range of 2140. The slope aspect classes are shown in
Fig. 5. About 53.84% of study area was dominated by northwest
and southwest slope aspects.
The landuse map (Fig. 6) from satellite data of French
SPOT Multi-spectral (October 1994) having spatial resolution of
10 m was processed by remote sensing software called ERDAS
Imagine. The landuse of the study area was classied into ve
classes: cultivated/bare land, sparse forest, dense forest, settle-
ment, and rivers/streams. The percentages of these classes were

Fig. 5 Slope aspect map of Kaghan Valley. It was obtained from 10m_DEM. The
classes include flat, east, west, south, north, southeast, northeast, southwest, and
northwest

53.33%, 33.66%, 6.93%, 5.37%, and 0.71%, respectively. Namely,

Fig. 4 Slope inclination map of Kaghan Valley. It was obtained from 10m_DEM.
The slope ranges from 0 to 88
the study area is dominated mostly by the cultivated/bare land
class. The cultivated/bare land includes crop land, grass, cane,
bamboo and shrubs etc. The major forest types include
coniferous and broad-leaved trees. The coniferous trees include
Chir Pine, Blue Pine, Fir, Spruce, and Deodar, and broad-
leaved species include Walnut, Quercous, Horse chestnut, Acer
Mapple, Taxus, and Poplar.
The drainage map at a scale 1:50,000, provided by Tarbela-
Watershed Management Project of Government of NWFP,
Pakistan, was digitized in GIS as shown in Fig. 7. The study
area is drained by Kunhar River which forms watershed of
Kaghan Valley. The main river (Kunhar River) and trunk
streams were buffered into four classes which are 010, 1150,
51100, and 101200 m to analyze landslide occurrence in each
class.
The road map, at scale 1:50,000 provided by Tarbela-
Watershed Management Project of Government of NWFP,
Pakistan, was digitized in GIS as shown in Fig. 8. The study
area has one paved road of 6 m width. The villages and
settlements are connected to the main road of the valley

Landslides 8 & (2011) 529

 Technical Note
Fig. 6 Landuse map of Kaghan Valley
obtained from 10 m SPOT Panchromatic
satellite data for October 1994

through unpaved secondary roads. The main road and associated with metamorphic minerals such as chrolite, epidote
secondary roads were buffered into four classes which are etc. Alluvim unconsolidated formation consists of silt, sand,
010, 1150, 51100, and 101200 m to analyze landslide and gravel. Granitic phyllite is light colored medium to coarse
occurrence in each class. grained.
The climate of valley is temperate with distinct seasonal The soil map, obtained from Soil Survey of Pakistan, was
variations. The average temperature in winter varies from also digitized in GIS as shown in Fig. 11. The 12 different soil
6.94C to 18C, and in summer it ranges from 8.66C to 28.83C. classes are named after the names of local places in the study
The winters are severe with heavy snowfall which may be area, and each soil class is described briey here. Ban-
expected at any time from middle of October to end of April cultivated complex consists of soil types which are slightly
(Khan 1974). The average annual snowfall varies from 0.9 to 6 m. shaly and silt loam in dark reddish brown to very dark red
The rainfall intensity map obtained from Kunhar River Water- colors. Ban-rockland complex is shaly and silty soils. Shino-
shed Project of Government of North-West Frontier Province rockland complex consists of hard rocky soil debris which
(NWFP), Pakistan, was digitized in GIS as shown in Fig. 9. About make up deep gorges in the owing stream beds. Kurnol-
84% of study area was dominated by two rainfall classes, i.e., rockland complex consists of reddish shaly soils. Kaghan-
1,4101,500 and 1,5101,650 mm/year. rockland complex is sandy loam soil debris. Chhapri-rockland
The geological map obtained from Kunhar River Water- complex is reddish-colored moraine soils. Rockland shaldar
shed Project of Government of NWFP, Pakistan, was digitized complex is consists of dry soil boulders and rock debris. Paras
in GIS as shown in Fig. 10. The study area was dominated by cultivated complex is mostly erodible shaly soils. Batgran
the Panjal formation composed of basaltic rocks which are shohal association is moderately to fairly deep alluvium soils.

530 Landslides 8 & (2011)


Fig. 7 Drainage map of Kaghan Valley digitized in GIS. The source drainage map
at scale 1:50,000 was obtained from Tarbela-Watershed Management Project of
Government of NWFP, Pakistan. It shows the main river (Kunhar River) and trunk
streams of study area
Paras-rockland complex is shallow to deep sandy loam soils.
Kaghan-cultivated complex is washes of hilly area with sandy
loam moderately deep soils. Kawai rockland complex is sandy
and shaly soil debris. Forty-two percent of study area was
dominated by Ban-rockland complex and Kaghan-rockland
complex.
Methodology
Information value model
For the analysis of landslide hazard, we used the information
value model developed by Yin and Yan (1988). This model can be
applied to land units as well as on a pixel basis in calculation. As
the study area was not split into small land units like lithology
units used by Yin and Yan (1988) or sub-catchment areas used by
Westen et al. (1993), the pixel basis was suggested for use in
calculation. The purpose of using the information value was to
give the numerical weight to all the factors which were considered
for the landslide hazard analysis. Due to this model, it was easier
to indicate the most causative factors for the landslide occurrence.
The information value model is given below:
Ii log Si =Ni =S=N where Ii information model value
Si total number of pixels of the given landslides and presence
of variable Xi
Xi a variable which represents a class of a causative factor map
Ni the number of pixels of variable Xi
S total number of pixels of landslides
N total number of pixels in the whole study area
The original information value model has been modied by
adding 1 to Si and Ni. The reason for this modication is
explained below.
Fig. 8 Road map of Kaghan Valley digitized in GIS. The source road map at scale
1:50,000 was obtained from Tarbela-Watershed Management Project of
Government of NWFP, Pakistan. It shows main road and secondary roads of study
area
Landslides 8 & (2011) 531
 Technical Note
preparing a map for existing landslides of study area using
differential GPS; (b) preparing raster maps for 11 causative factors
(i.e., landuse, elevation, geology, rainfall intensity, slope inclina-
tion, soil, slope aspect, distances from main road, distances from
secondary roads, distances from main river, and distances from
trunk streams) in GIS and remote sensing software; (c) overlaying
of landslide map on causative factor maps to obtain landslide
affected area (Si) for 68 variables (Xi); (d) obtaining informa-
tion values (Ii) for all variables by applying modied informa-
tion value model; (e) developing quantitative hazard values of
1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 to represent initial hazard zones of very low,
low, moderate, high, and very high hazard respectively using a
graph; (f) assigning hazard values to all variables and these
values were added in attribute tables in GIS maps of causative
factors to obtain nal hazard values; and (g) developing nal

Fig. 9 Rainfall intensity map of Kaghan Valley. The source map was obtained
from Kunhar River Watershed Project of Government of NWFP, Pakistan. The
rainfall intensity map shows four classes which are <1,400, 1,4101,500, 1,510
1,650, and >1,650 mm/year

If the number of pixels of the landslides and presence of

variable is zero, then Ii log0=Ni =S=N log 0, which is
undened. This means that there is no information value for a
pixel; modication in the model was needed.Hence, the modied
form of model is given by the following equation:

Ii log Si 1=Ni 1=S=N

The degree of hazard for a pixel j is calculated by the following

P P
equation: Ij Xji  l i Or Ii Xji  log Si 1=Ni 1=S=N
where Xji is the value of variable Xi; if Xi exists in the pixel j,
then Xji =1 and if Xi is not present in the pixel j, then Xji =0. The
higher the Ij value is, the higher the hazard of pixel j.
Fig. 10 Geological map of Kaghan Valley. The source map was obtained from
Framework for landslide hazard analysis Kunhar River Watershed Project of Government of NWFP, Pakistan. There are four
Figure 12 shows the schematic framework of landslide hazard geological formations which include Mafic and ultra-mafic rock, Alluvim
analysis. The framework for landslide hazard analysis includes (a) unconsolidated, Panjal formation, and Granitic phyllite

532 Landslides 8 & (2011)


Fig. 11 Soil map of Kaghan Valley. The source map was obtained from Soil
Survey of Pakistan. There are 12 soil classes as shown in the figure
hazard zones in landslide hazard zonation map using the nal
hazard values.
Results
Information model values for all classes of causative factor maps
There are 68 classes for all 11 causative factor maps. All these
classes were taken as variables for calculating the information
model values. For all variables, the total number of pixels in the
study area (N) were 19,27,560, and the total number of pixels of
landslides (S) were 3,134. The size of each pixel was 1010 m. The
information model values for all the variables range from 2.78 to
0.72. The lower information model values mean low hazard and
higher values means higher hazard for the variables. The
information values for all 68 variables are calculated in Table 1.
Based on the results obtained from the information value model,
the relationship of landslide with all causative factors is discussed
in the subsequent paragraphs.
Landslide relationship with landuse
The information value for cultivated/bare land (I1) was higher as
compared to information value of sparse forest (I2) as shown in
Table 1. It might be due to presence of the highest number of
landslides in cultivated/bare land (S1 =2,349). The main reason
for highest number of landslides in this variable might be the
human activities such as deforestation, cutting, and making at
lands for cropping, slope excavation for road construction, and
house foundations. The sparse forest also showed presence of
landslides (S2 =603), and no landslides were found in the dense
forests (S3 =0).
Landslide relationship with elevation
The information values (I4, I5, I6) were higher (0.59, 0.35, 0.30) in
three variables (X4, X5, X6) of elevation as compared to rest of
elevation variables. The landslide occurrence was also high in
these variables, and the other 11 variables (X7 to X17) did not show
the landslide occurrence (S7 =0, S8 =0,,S16 =0, S17 =0). Most of
the landslides were found along roads which are constructed at
elevation range of 959 to 1,600 m. The elevation variables on the
high elevation ranges of study area have dense forests and were
not affected by landslides as human activities were not found
there.
Landslide relationship with geology
In this case, Granitic phyllite had the highest information value
(I21 =0.26) which shows that this range of geological formation
in the valley had high hazard for the occurrence of landslides.
Mac and ultra-mac and sandstone Panjal formations also
showed higher landslide occurrence (S18 =560, S20 =1,417). No
landslides were found in alluvim unconsolidated geological
formation (S19 =0) because the formation areas do not include
slopes.
Landslide relationship with rainfall intensity
The information value (I23 =0.11) was the highest for rainfall
intensity range of 1,4101,500 mm/year which also shows highest
landslide occurrences (S23 =2,083). The landslide occurrence was
also high (S24 =1,051) for rainfall class of 1,5101,650 mm/year. The
main road in study area gets blocked due to occurrence of
landslides during the rainy season.
Landslide relationship with slope inclination
The landslide occurrences for the slope inclination decreased
in an order of variables 3140 (S29 =663), 2130 (S28 = 645),
4150 (S30 = 277), 010 (S26 = 207), 1120 (S27 =128), and 51
88 (S31 = 30). From this study, we found that the steep
inclination does not necessarily means high occurrence of
landslides. The highest landslide occurrence was found in
slope range of 2140. A study, conducted on the relationship
between the slope degrees and heavy rainfall failures using
GIS, showed that the highest failure densities were found in
the slope range of 2335 although some areas with sedimen-
tary rocks showed the failure density was up to the slope
range of 5865 (Yamagishi et al. 2010). The slopes of study
area were very steep, and there was not enough at land for
agricultural and construction activities. Therefore, articial
excavation practices played very effective role in landslide
occurrence.
Landslides 8 & (2011) 533
 Technical Note
Fig. 12 A framework used for Field SPOT Soil
development of landslide hazard survey Satellite Contour map Geology Rainfall Drainage Road map
with GPS Imagery map map map map
zonation map using causative factor
maps and modified information value
model
10m DEM
GPS files Buffered Buffered road
Land drainage map map
cover
map Elevation
map, slope
map, aspect
map

Landslide map Matrix analysis in Erdas Imagine

Landslide affected areas for

all variables of factor maps

Information values for all

variables of factor maps

Development of hazard values

with corresponding hazard zones

Addition of hazard values in

attribute tables of factor maps

Obtaining final hazard values

Landslide hazard zonation map

Table 1 Information values for 68 variables of 11 causative factors

Causative factor Classes Xia Nib Sic Ii d

Landuse Cultivated/bare land X1 N1 =1,275,189 S1 =2,349 I1 =0.05

Sparse forest X2 N2 =804,943 S2 =603 I2 =0.33

Dense forest X3 N3 =165,589 S3 =0 I3 =2.43

Elevation 9591,200 X4 N4 =111,400 S4 =701 I4 =0.59

1,2011,400 X5 N5 =161,614 S5 =591 I5 =0.35

1,4011,600 X6 N6 =203,532 S6 =658 I6 =0.30

1,6011,800 X7 N7 =230,710 S7 =0 I7 =2.57

1,8012,000 X8 N8 =245,583 S8 =0 I8 =2.60

2,0012,200 X9 N9 =246,762 S9 =0 I9 =2.60

2,2012,400 X10 N10 =252,318 S10 =0 I10 =2.61

2,4012,600 X11 N11 =178,203 S11 =0 I11 =2.46

2,6012,800 X12 N12 =109,855 S12 =0 I12 =2.25

2,8013,000 X13 N13 =75,071 S13 =0 I13 =2.09

3,0013,200 X14 N14 =61,941 S14 =0 I14 =2.00

534 Landslides 8 & (2011)

Table 1 (continued)
Causative factor Classes Xia Nib Sic Ii d

3,2013,400 X15 N15 =31,542 S15 =0 I15 =1.71

3,4013,600 X16 N16 =12,710 S16 =0 I16 =1.31

3,6013,800 X17 N17 =6,734 S17 =0 I17 =1.04

Geology Mafic and ultra-mafic X18 N18 =578,061 S18 =560 I18 =0.22

Alluvim unconsolidated X19 N19 =191,188 S19 =0 I19 =2.49

Panjal formation X20 N20 =1,129,651 S20 =1,417 I20 =0.11

Granitic phyllite X21 N21 =390,585 S21 =1,157 I21 =0.26

Rainfall intensity <1,400 mm/year X22 N22 =3,032 S22 =0 I22 =0.69

1,4101,500 mm/year X23 N23 =1,000,476 S23 =2,083 I23 =0.11

1,5101,650 mm/year X24 N24 =966,274 S24 =1,051 I24 =0.17

>1,650 mm/year X25 N25 =373,831 S25 =0 I25 =2.78

Slope inclination 010 X26 N26 =116,965 S26 =207 I26 =0.039

1120 X27 N27 =176,843 S27 =128 I27 =0.35

2130 X28 N28 =664,523 S28 =645 I28 =0.22

3140 X29 N29 =670,152 S29 =663 I29 =0.22

4150 X30 N30 =277,916 S30 =277 I30 =0.21

5188 X31 N31 =21,161 S31 =30 I31 =0.05

Soil Ban-cultivated X32 N32 =169,210 S32 =269 I32 =0.22

Ban-rockland X33 N33 =473,440 S33 =648 I33 =0.21

Shino-rockland X34 N34 =103,408 S34 =0 I34 =0.18

Kurnol-rockland X35 N35 =128,405 S35 =1,089 I35 =0.17

Kaghan-rockland X36 N36 =453,095 S36 =213 I36 =0.14

Chhapri-rockland X37 N37 =258,628 S37 =0 I37 =0.11

Rockland shaldar X38 N38 =218,211 S38 =0 I38 =0.1

Paras cultivated X39 N39 =110,897 S39 =68 I39 =0.07

Batgran-shohal X40 N40 =75,120 S40 =95 I40 =0.05

Paras-rockland X41 N41 =96,342 S41 =65 I41 =0.0082

Kaghan-cultivated X42 N42 =38,145 S42 =145 I42 =0.00017

Kawai rockland X43 N43 =61,100 S43 =254 I43 =0.04

Slope aspect East X44 N44 =17,805 S44 =0 I44 =1.46

Northeast X45 N45 =414,590 S45 =212 I45 =0.50

North X46 N46 =46,219 S46 =49 I46 =0.18

Northwest X47 N47 =596,081 S47 =701 I47 =0.14

West X48 N48 =33,836 S48 =5 I48 =0.96

Landslides 8 & (2011) 535

 Technical Note
Table 1 (continued)
Causative factor Classes Xia Nib Sic Ii d

Southwest X49 N49 =444,691 S49 =386 I49 =0.27

South X50 N50 =34,956 S50 =5 I50 =0.98

Southeast X51 N51 =331,378 S51 =538 I51 =0.00017

Flat X52 N52 =13,074 S52 =54 I52 =0.41

Distances from main road (m) 010 X53 N53 =22,960 S53 =55 I53 =0.18

1150 X54 N54 =30,740 S54 =17 I54 =0.44

51100 X55 N55 =16,731 S55 =123 I55 =0.66

101200 X56 N56 =33,987 S56 =78 I56 =0.16

Distances from secondary roads (m) 010 X57 N57 =106,640 S57 =544 I57 =0.50

1150 X58 N58 =72,416 S58 =460 I58 =0.59

51100 X59 N59 =99,306 S59 =459 I59 =0.45

101200 X60 N60 =138,433 S60 =749 I60 =0.52

Distances from main river (m) 010 X61 N61 =25,466 S61 =123 I61 =0.48

1150 X62 N62 =18,509 S62 =102 I62 =0.53

51100 X63 N63 =28,360 S63 =140 I63 =0.49

101200 X64 N64 =43,557 S64 =183 I64 =0.41

Distances from trunk streams (m) 010 X65 N65 =162,179 S65 =610 I65 =0.36

1150 X66 N66 =158,689 S66 =558 I66 =0.34

51100 X67 N67 =170,328 S67 =579 I67 =0.32

101200 X68 N68 =142,629 S68 =383 I68 =0.22

a
Xi variable which represents a class of a factor map
b
Ni the number of pixels of variable Xi
c
Si total number of pixels of the given landslides and presence of variable Xi
d
Ii information values for each class of factor map

Fig. 13 Model predicted information F

values for 68 variables of 11 causative
factors. AB, BC, CD, DE, and
EF show the ranges of information
values to obtain hazard values of 1, 2,
3, 4, and 5 which represent very low,
low, moderate, high, and very high
hazard classes, respectively

536 Landslides 8 & (2011)

Table 2 Landslide hazard zones

Graphical representation Range of information values (Ii) Hazards values Hazard classes

AB 2.78Ii 2.25 1 Very low hazard

BC 2.25>Ii 0.35 2 Low hazard

CD 0.35>Ii 0.00 3 Moderate hazard

DE 0.00>Ii 0.37 4 High hazard

EF 0.37>Ii 0.72 5 Very high hazard

Landslide relationship with soil landslide occurrences in all these four variables, i.e., S57 =544, S58 =
Kurnol-rockland complex (X35) and Ban-rockland complex 460, S59 =459, and S60 =749. The high occurrence of landslides
(X33) showed higher landslide occurrences, i.e., S35 =1,089 and along secondary roads might be due to (a) the effect of rainfall in
S33 =648 as compared to other variables of this factor map. softening the soil bed of unpaved roads, (b) articial excavation
Both these soils types are formed of shales which are shallow, of lands at steep slopes for construction and maintenance of
ne textured, acidic, and they have intermediate resistance to secondary roads, and (c) the passage of secondary roads through
weathering (Fox et al. 2008). These soils are not suitable for cultivated lands.
the growth of plants, trees, and grass because of low nutrients.
The absence of plants and trees on steep slopes can trigger Landslide relationship with distances from river
landslide occurrence more easily, and this might be the reason The information value for the distance 1150 m (X62) was the
for higher landslides in both these soils. Landslide occurrence highest (I62 =0.53) in this factor. Distance for variables 51100 m
was found in clay shale in the north Saskatchewan river valley,
Canada (Sauer 1984). Kawai rockland complex (X43), a shale
soil type, and Kaghan-cultivated complex (X42), a sandy loam
soil type, had high information values (I43 =0.04, I42 =0.00017)
which predicted the high hazard for landslides. Chhapri-rock-
land complex (X37), Rockland shaldar complex (X38), and
Shino-rockland complex (X34) showed lower information values
(I37 =0.11, I38 =0.1, I34 =0.18) from which one can observe
the stability of pixels for these classes and they were
considered to be a safer side.

Landslide relationship with slope aspect

The two variables in slope aspect, i.e., northwest (X47) and
southeast (X51), showed the highest landslide occurrences (S47 =
701 and S51 =538) as compared to the rest of variables. The highest
numbers of landslides occurrences were on the slope aspects
which were towards the river and along the main roads. These
aspects received most sunshine due to which there was not
enough moisture for plants to grow which could make both
aspects more susceptible to landslide occurrences.

Landslide relationship with distances from main road

The information value (I55) was the highest (0.66) for X55 (51
100 m), and the landslide occurrence for this class was also high
(S55 =123). The information values (I53, I56) for X53 (010 m) and
X56 (101200 m) were also very high (0.18, 0.16). The slopes along
the main road were articially cut towards the steep slopes which
might cause high landslide occurrence in the distances from main
road.

Landslide relationship with distances from secondary roads

All the information values (I57, I58, I59, I60) for the buffered
distances of secondary roads (010, 1150, 51100, 101200 m)
were very high (i.e., 0.50, 0.59, 0.45, 0.52). There were high Fig. 14 Landslide hazard zonation map

Landslides 8 & (2011) 537

 Technical Note
(X63) and 010 m (X61) also show very high information values
(I63 =0.49 and I61 =0.48). The higher water level in the river due to
heavy rainfall caused undercutting of slopes which decreased the
stability of land due to increase in the slope gradient, and it might
be the reason for the higher number of landslides in the distances
from the main river of study area.
Landslide relationship with distances from trunk streams
The information values for buffered distances of trunk streams
were very high (I65 =0.36, I66 =0.34, I67 =0.32, I68 =0.22), and the
landslide occurrences in these variables were also high (S65 =610,
S66 =558, S67 =579, S68 =383). The water levels get increased in the
trunk streams due to snow melting and heavy monsoon rainfall
events. As a result, the instability of slopes of lands increases due
to undercutting of slopes which might be the reason for very high
landslide occurrence in distances from trunk streams.
Landslide hazard zonation map
The information values for all 68 variables are plotted in chart as
shown in Fig. 13. This chart explains the critical sliding value and
division of information model values into ve classes, which were
considered as the base of developing landslide hazard zonation
map. From Fig. 13, we can easily observe that point D is the
critical sliding point. In Fig. 13, A, B, C, D, E, and F represent the
Fig. 15 Passage of main road of Kaghan
Valley through landslide hazard zones
538 Landslides 8 & (2011)
range of information values. All these alphabets are marked on
positions where chart changes its trends. AB shows range of
values with least quantitative values; therefore, this represents
very low hazard class. BC shows information values which are
higher as compared to values of range AB but lower than the
range values for CD. This BC section represents area of low
hazard class. CD section shows values from 0.35 to 0, and this
represents moderate hazard class. Namely, Fig. 13 shows that
information values are the highest in ranges DE and EF which
represent high hazard class and very high hazard class, respec-
tively. From the trend of information values (Fig. 13), we
summarized the landslide hazard classes as shown in Table 2.
The hazard values were assigned to all variables of
causative factor maps. The matrix analysis and overlay
function was performed on all of these modied causative
factor maps. In matrix analysis, hazard values were added in
attribute tables by combining GIS maps of causative factors to
obtain nal hazard values. These nal hazard values were used
to obtain nal hazard zones in a nal landslide hazard
zonation map as shown in Fig. 14. The percentages of areas
in hazard zones were calculated. We found that 3.65% of area
was in very high hazard and 16.28% of the area was in high
hazard zone. The moderate hazard zone showed 21.29%. The
low and very low hazard zones showed 35.13% and 23.65%,
respectively. In order to check accuracy of nal landslide Elevation Model was also a useful tool for extracting important
hazard zonation map, the landslide map has been overlaid on factors like elevation, slope inclination, and slope aspect for the
landslide hazard zonation map. This overlaying result was that landslide occurrence.
all landslides were ranging from moderate, high to very high
hazard zones. It was found that there were no landslides in Conclusion
very low or low hazard zones. The percentage of landslide In this study, we found that the causative factors with the highest
occurrence in moderate hazard zone was 10% which was lower effect of landslide occurrence were landuse, rainfall intensity,
than the percentage of landslide occurrence in high or very distances from main road, distances from secondary roads, and
high hazard zones. The percentage of landslide occurrence distances from main river and from trunk streams. The most
was the highest in high hazard zone which was 77% and that important factor for landslide hazard in study area was cultivated
in very high hazard zone was 13% which showed higher or bare land. Sarkar and Kanungo (2004) found that the barren
number of landslides as compared to moderate hazard zone and sparsely vegetated area have shown more frequent occur-
but less than high hazard zone. The area of high hazard zone rences of landslides as compared to thickly and moderately
is about four times bigger than the area of very high hazard vegetated areas. The change in water levels due to heavy rainfall
zone which might be the reason for the presence of higher and snow melting in the main river and trunk streams might
number of landslides in it. From the results of accuracy decrease the stability of slopes which resulted in higher number of
checks, it was revealed that the actual landslide occurrence landslides near water bodies. The recurrent sliding movements
was found in moderate, high, or very high hazard zones which generally occur in the years of usually high rainfall (Zaruba and
showed the 100% accuracy of the landslide hazard zonation Vojtech 1982). The articial excavation of lands at steep slopes
map. along the main and secondary roads might increase the
Landslide hazard zonation map gives the information of occurrences of landslides.
the Kaghan Valley for the landslide hazards. This map is very
useful for the construction of infrastructure. We have overlaid map
for existing main road of valley on landslide hazard zonation map in
GIS as shown in Fig. 15. From this analysis, it was found that the
existing main road of study area mostly passes through the high or
very high hazard zones and some portion of the main road passes
through moderate hazard zone.
The major risk of landslides was on the main road of the study
area which often gets blocked and also leads to frequent accidents.
This not only causes loss of lives, but also leads to considerable
damage to the physical infrastructure. The immediate priority of
study area was to nd an alternative road route which should pass
through safe zone. By using the landslide hazard zonation map, two
new road routes are recommended for the construction of the new
main road in the study area as shown in Fig. 16. These routes are
suggested by avoiding the moderate, high, and very hazard zones of
landslides in the study area. These routes pass through less, very less,
and no hazard zones. If the road is constructed on the basis of either
of our recommendations, there might be less landslide occurrence
on these routes.
A methodology was developed by integration of GPS, GIS, and
RS technologies to get a more improved landslide hazard zonation
map. The magnitude of landslide hazard has been evaluated by using
the information value model. Hazard values have been assigned to
classes of all maps of causative factors on the basis of information
values. Finally, we made ve landslide hazard zones in the nal
landslide hazard zonation map. Landslide hazard zonation map has
been applied to evaluate the passage of existing road through
landslide hazard zones; therefore, two new alternative safe road
routes have been suggested in the study area. The road construction
activity in the Kaghan Valley was increasing the landslide hazard.
Drainage network also played a very effective role in the landslide
hazards of the study area. The slope inclination in combination with
other causative factors of landuse, rainfall, and slope excavation
showed the highest probability of landslide occurrence. Raster-based
GIS analysis was very effective method for this type of research
because a large number of maps can be combined together with the
availability of required information in the attribute table. Digital Fig. 16 Alternate safe road routes for Kaghan Valley

Landslides 8 & (2011) 539

 Technical Note
Pixel-based information value model was found useful in (a)
handling variables of all causative factor maps using same pixel
size; (b) calculating quantitative information values for all
variables to obtain hazard classes; and (c) performing matrix
and overlay analysis for combining information values for all
variables to obtain nal landslide hazard map. The demerits of
pixel-based information value model were (a) obtaining low
information values in some cases, i.e., if the total number of pixels
with variables are very large as compared to pixels with landslides
and variables and (b) getting no information values if the number
of pixels with given landslides and existence of variables is zero;
and (c) using subjectivity approach in developing landslide
hazard zonation map.
Acknowledgments
We would like to acknowledge the research grants from
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
(ICIMOD), Nepal and Asian Institute of Technology (AIT),
Bangkok. We also acknowledge Pakistan Space and Upper
Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO) for providing
free satellite data and Agrar Und Hydrotechnik-AHT Interna-
tional GmbH for their full support towards data collection. We
are greatly indebted to Dr. Ali Akbar Khan (Ex-Chief
Conservator of Department of Forestry, Fisheries and Wildlife,
Government of NWFP, Pakistan) for his assistance in data
collection and eld survey. We also acknowledge the gracious
support from The University of Calgary, Canada for allowing
us to use their scientic research facilities.
References
Ayalew L, Yamagishi H, Ugawa N (2004) Landslide susceptibility mapping using GIS
based weighted linear combination, the case in Tsugawa area of Agano River,
Niigata Prefecture, Japan. Landslides 1:7381. doi:10.1007/s10346-003-0006-9
Baum R, Coe J, Godt J, Harp E, Reid M, Savage W, Schulz W, Brien D, Chleborad A,
McKenna J, Michael J (2005) Regional landslide-hazard assessment for Seattle,
Washington, USA. Landslides 2:266279. doi:10.1007/s10346-005-0023-y
Chau K, Chan J (2005) Regional bias of landslide data in generating susceptibility maps
using logistic regression: case of Hong Kong Island. Landslides 2:280290.
doi:10.1007/s10346-005-0024-x
Colombo A, Lanteri L, Ramasco M, Troisi C (2005) Systematic GIS-based landslide
inventory as the first step for effective landslide-hazard management. Landslides
2:291301. doi:10.1007/s10346-005-0025-9
Devoli G, Strauch W, Chvez G, Heg K (2007) A landslide database for Nicaragua: a tool for
landslide-hazard management. Landslides 4:163176. doi:10.1007/s10346-006-0074-8
El-Rabbany A (eds) (2006) Introduction to GPS the global positioning system. The GNSS
technology and applications series. Artech, London
Fox HE, Cunningham RL, Shipp RF (2008) Some facts about soil basics. Agronomy facts 35.
Penn States College of Agricultural Sciences, The Pennsylvania State University, USA
Havenith H, Torgoev I, Meleshko A, Alioshin Y, Torgoev A, Danneels G (2006) Landslides
in the Mailuu-Suu Valley, Kyrgyzstanhazards and impacts. Landslides 3:137147.
doi:10.1007/s10346-006-0035-2
Khan AA (eds) (1974) Revised working plan for the Kaghan reserved forests of Hazara
division, NWFP Forestry Pre-investment Center Peshawar, Pakistan
540 Landslides 8 & (2011)
Lee S, Pradhan B (2007) Landslide hazard mapping at Selangor, Malaysia using
frequency ratio and logistic regression models. Landslides 4:3341. doi:10.1007/
s10346-006-0047-y
Liao Z, Hong Y, Wang J, Fukuoka H, Sassa K, Karnawati D, Fathani F (2010) Prototyping
an experimental early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in Indonesia
using satellite remote sensing and geospatial datasets. Landslides 7:317324.
doi:10.1007/s10346-010-0219-7
Peyret M, Djamour Y, Rizza M, Ritz J, Hurtrez J, Goudarzi MA, Nankali H, Chry J, Le DK, Uri F
(2008) Monitoring of the large slow Kahrod landslide in Alborz mountain range (Iran) by
GPS and SAR interferometry. Eng Geol 100:131141. doi:10.1016/j.enggeo.2008.02.013
Ray RR, Jacobs JM, Cosh MH (2010) Landslide susceptibility mapping using downscaled
AMSR-E soil moisture: a case study from Cleveland Corral, California, US. Remote
Sens Environ 114:26242636. doi:10.1016/j.rse.2010.05.033
Saha A, Gupta R, Sarkar I, Arora M, Csaplovics E (2005) An approach for GIS-based
statistical landslide susceptibility zonationwith a case study in the Himalayas.
Landslides 1:6169. doi:10.1007/s10346-004-0039-8
Sarkar S, Kanungo DP (2004) An integrated approach for landslide susceptibility
mapping using remote sensing and GIS. Photogramm Eng Remote Sens 70:617625
Sato H, Harp E (2009) Interpretation of earthquake-induced landslides triggered by the
12 May 2008, M7.9 Wenchuan earthquake in the Beichuan area, Sichuan Province,
China using satellite imagery and Google earth. Landslides 6:153159. doi:10.1007/
s10346-009-0147-6
Sauer EK (1984) A landslide in clay shale in the North Saskatchewan River Valley,
Canada. Eng Geol 20:279300. doi:10.1016/0013-7952(84)90057-7
Stan Aronoff (eds) (1993) Geographic information system: a management perspective
294. WDL, Ottawa
Su M, Chen I, Liao C (2009) Using TDR cables and GPS for landslide monitoring in high
mountain area. J Geotech Geoenviron Eng 135:11131121. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)
Westen CJ, Prce DG, Rengers N (eds) (1993) Application of geographic information
systems to landslide hazard zonation. ITC dissertation 13, ITC publication 15, 245,
ISBN: 90-6164-078-4, Enschede, ITC
Yamagishi H, Bahndari NP, Doshida S, Yamazaki F (2010) GIS analyses of shallow and
deep-seated landslides in Japan. In: International Archives of the Photogrammetry,
Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Science, Volume XXXVIII, Part 8, Kyoto
Japan 2010, 912 August 2010, pp 298303
Yin KL, Yan TZ (1988) Statistical prediction model for slope instability of
metamorphosed rocks. In: Balkema AA, Bonnard C (eds) Proceedings of 5th
international symposium on landslides, vol 2, Lausanne. Balkema, Rotterdam, pp
12691272
Yoshimatsu H, Abe S (2006) A review of landslide hazards in Japan and assessment of
their susceptibility using an analytical hierarchic process (AHP) method. Landslides
3:149158. doi:10.1007/s10346-005-0031-y
Zaruba Q, Vojtech M (eds) (1982) Landslides and their control. Elsevier, Amsterdam
Zhang W, Lin J, Peng J, Lu Q (2010) Estimating Wenchuan Earthquake induced
landslides based on remote sensing. Int J Remote Sens 31:34953508. doi:10.1080/
01431161003727630
T. A. Akbar ())
Department of Civil Engineering, Schulich School of Engineering,
University of Calgary,
2500 University Drive NW, Calgary, AB T2N 1N4, Canada
e-mail: taakbar@ucalgary.ca
T. A. Akbar
e-mail: tahiraliakbar@yahoo.com
S. R. Ha
Department of Urban Engineering,
Chungbuk National University,
410 Seongbongro Cheongju, Chungbuk 361-763, South Korea