ISBN 32-027.

1 (497-15)

(RE)BALKANIZATION OF THE WESTERN BALKANS: NEW CHALLENGES ON

SECURITY IN THE REGION

PhD. Dragan Djukanovic 1

Deputy Director, Senior Research Fellow, the Institute of International Politics
and Economics, Belgrade, Republic of Serbia
dragandjuk@yahoo.com

Ass. Prof. Dr.Sc. Marjan Gjurovski

Faculty of Security-Skopje, Republic of Macedonia
mgjurovski@fb.uklo.edu.mk

Abstract
The Western Balkans is facing with numerous internal challenges, but also those who are
attached to relations with the dominant actors in the world politics the United States of
America, European Union along with the Russian Federation. Its internal contradictions of the
Western Balkans shows, as well as foreign policy, and should be kept in mind that the existing
fundamental orientation of the countries in this part of Europe with respect to membership in the
European Union may still be modified. Parallely with the above process can be strengthened and
"new-old" nationalisms in the region and strengthen regional instability (terrorism, organized
crime, religious fundamentalism, etc.). Therefore, the authors of this study concluded that it was
necessary to redesign the existing access to European Union ant the NATO towards the Balkans
and incorporate it fully into Euro-Atlantic structures, and to be avoided in new instability.

Key Words: Western Balkans, European Union, security, challenges, nationalisms, instability

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1
Dragan ukanovi, PhD, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of International Politics and Economics,
Belgrade. E-mail: draganjuk@yahoo.com. The paper has been carried out within the project Serbia in contemporary
international integration processes foreign policy, international, economic, legal and security aspects of the
Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia, No. OI 179023 for the
20112015 period.
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Is there a danger ofre-balkanization of the West Balkan and balkanization of the

European Union

The new tensions between the East and the West that were more visible during the crisis
in Ukraine in the beginning of 2014 have shown numerous weaknesses of the modern Balkan
reality i.e. the numerous latent instabilities in the region. 2 Again the countries from the West
Balkan were faced with the necessity to have to choose a side in this conflict or to keep any
kind of equidistance as they wouldnt jeopardize their foreign policy position. 3
In that context it was evident that Montenegro, Albania and Kosovo have distanced
themselves from official Moscow introducing restrictive measures toward this country, which
introduced them to the European Union. 4 About the others, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina
(thanks to the Republika Srpska) and Macedonia remained mostly neutral according to this
question by not joining these sanctions by which they tried to keep their relations with the
Russian Federation good. 5 This condition was used by Russia for personal reposition and in
certain way by disturbing the role of the USA and EU.
Also, despite the impact of the penetration of the Russian Federation in the West Balkan,
the impact of Turkey becomes stronger, traditionally relied on the Albanian and Bosniak factor
in this part of Europe. Turkey on certain way tries to strengthen the business and the cultural
impact in this part of Europe and to represent itself as protector of the Balkan Muslim
population. Indeed, certain deep sentimental and public opinions of the countries in the region,
first of all of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo, show that the relationship becomes even
stronger.
On the other hand, it is evident that the European Union is trying to keep all the countries
from the region of the West Balkan into the common bond despite the internal crisis in their
organization's long-term goal accomplished. 6 In that context it is important to be said that the
most active role from the West Balkan has Germany which attempts to keep the stability of the
region but also to influence on the internal reforms in these countries and their external

2
D. ukanovi, Evropska unija i Zapadni Balkan: oekivanja i isekivanja, Kultura polisa, Kultura Polis Novi
Sad, Institut za evropske studije, Beograd, Novi Sad, 2014, str. 2538.
3
D. ukanovi, The new wick on the 'Balkan Power keg'?, Turkish Weekly, Ankara, June 13, 2015, Internet:
http://www.turkishweekly.net/2015/06/13/op-ed/the-new-wick-on-the-balkan-powder-keg/, 22/08/2015.
4
D. ukanovi, The Process of Institutionalization of the EUs CFSP in the Western Balkans Countries during the
Ukraine Crisis, Croatian International Relations Review, 1/2015, Zagreb 2015, pp. 81106.
5
Ibidem.
6
Dragan ukanovi, Zapadni Balkan 2014. napredak u evropskim integracijama ili stagnacija?, u: Dragan
ukanovi, Aleksandar Jazi i Milo Joni (urs.), Srbija, region i Evropska unija, Institut za meunarodnu politiku
i privredu, Beograd, 2015, str. 247259.

2
modernization, decade and a half after the conflicts have finished. 7 The Official Berlin in this
moment gives the most important support to Serbia and Albania. Also, it is insisted on improving
the bilateral relations in this part of Europe. 8
Also, it is important to say that the European Union or Germany as the most influential
member keeps finding itself caught off when it comes to certain cases from different countries
from the West Balkan. The recent internal crisis in Macedonia related to the actions of the
Albanian paramilitary forces and their attempt to destabilize the country, and the manifest and
latent animosities between the government and the opposition in the country, which often
exceeds the conventional political methods of struggle, indicates that the region remains
considerably unstable. 9 The European Union has not given any relevant answers to these issues,
but rather remained caught in the process, without a direction for Macedonia in the further rather
unstable situation.
A similar was the situation with the terroristic attack at the end of May 2015 that
happened in the East Bosnian city Zvornik, when a member of the radical Vahabic movement
killed two members of the police forces. 10 This has disturbed the inter-ethnic relations which are
still not consolidated even after two decades from the Dayton Peace Agreement which put an end
on the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina. 11
At the same time, the events associated with this year, twentieth consecutive
commemoration of the atrocity at Srebrenica when the Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic
was attacked by a large group of citizens showed that the wounds related to the war in Bosnia
and Herzegovina are not yet sufficiently healed. From here, the variety of types of interethnic
tension in Bosnia and Herzegovina could soon result in spiraling occurrence of various incidents.
Very similar is the state of relations between Serbia and Albania for each most sensitive issue
related to a different interpretation of the status of Kosovo.
Within these relationships there are certain potentials for causing widespread instability,
particularly in certain municipalities in southern Serbia (Presevo, Bujanovac and Medvedja)
which are predominantly populated by Albanians seeking a "balanced" position as provided for
Serbs in Kosovo under the First Agreement on normalization of relations between the
governments in Belgrade and Pristine (30.04.2015). It presupposes a formation of triple
associations of the municipalities in the far South of Serbia. 12
So, the impact of never forgotten ex-Yugoslav conflicts remains noticeably strengths in
the relations between the states and peoples in the region. So the Western Balkans today faces

7
Ibidem.
8
Dragan ukanovi, Bilateral Relations Between The Western Balkan Countries Historical Background And
Contemporary Challenges, in: Duko Dimitrijevi, Ivona Laevac and Ana Jovi-Lazi (eds), Regionalism and
Reconciliation, Global Resource Management, Doshisha University, Japan, Institute of International Politics and
Economics, Belgrade, 2014, pp. 111127.
9
Makedonija: Vlast i opozicija se sporezumeli oko izlaska iz krize, Newsweek, Beograd, July 15, 2015, Internet:
http://www.newsweek.rs/svet/52818-makedonija-vlas-i-opozicija-se-sporazumeli-oko-izlaska-iz-krize.html,
12/09/2015.
10
D. ukanovi, The new wick on the 'Balkan Power keg'?, Turkish Weekly, op. cit.
11
Dragan ukanovi, Milovan Jovanovi, Kriza u Federaciji Bosne i Hercegovine izmeu graanskog bunta i
revizije politikog sistema, Kultura polisa, Kultura Polis, Novi Sad, Institut za evropske studije, Beograd, god.
XI, br. 24, Novi Sad, 2014, str. 5980.
12
Na jugu Zajednica albanskih optina?, RTV B92, Beorad, 10. septembar 2015, Internet:
http://www.b92.net/info/vesti/index.php?yyyy=2015&mm=09&dd=10&nav_category=11&nav_id=1037403,
12/08/2015.

3
constantly reviving certain interstate disputes, which means we can talk about "re-balkanization"
in the Balkans, or recovery of certain instability. 13
This further confirms the tensions related to the economic and financial crisis in Greece,
which has shown some weaknesses in the euro zone, but in the broad concept of today's
European Union too. The current leftist populist governments in Athens, thanks to the
strengthening of the anti-European and anti-German sentiments are trying to cover up the failure
of their measures for consolidation of the country and in a way to examine the measures of
perseverance of the administration of the European Union in this regard. 14 The reached
agreement about the Greek debt and its stay in the euro zone still in the future implementation
will have some problems and in each of the stages in its agreement may arise a substantial
cancellation of the process.
Because of this we can conclude that the actual financial problem is even bigger than the
condition in certain unstable countries in the West Balkan, even though this country is a member
of the European Union for many years. 15 It is certain that similar scenario of the internal
economic problems of radicalization can happen in other east Balkan countries like Bulgaria.
Namely, the social and the economic problems there are piling up and the country is faced to big
civil protests. 16
From the foregoing it is clear that the enlargement of the Union in the Balkans (Greece
1981, Bulgaria 2007), but also the Croatia's entry into the organization in 2013 does not
confirm that it has contributed a successful development of these countries. On the contrary,
most of them dont have solved quality relations with their immediate neighbors, and their socio-
economic parameters are extremely unfavorable. On the other hand, and the European Union
often shows disagreement in certain situations, such as "pale" reaction of the Ukrainian crisis
means collisions in the vicinity and certain types of Russian expansionism. 17 The European
Union reacted post-festum in certain events and as the recent case with Macedonia does not have
specific challenges, but only follows the effects of certain developments.
The situation with the drastic migrants crisis or the entrance of many people from Africa
and Asia whose goal is entering the European Union is very similar. In trying to address this
issue the European Union has shown the absence of one of the fundamental values of
"solidarity." The European Union didnt show solidarity to Hungary and its south neighbor
Serbia during the Asian crisis, but it decided to build a special fence or wall on this border. 18
At the same time, it comes to the fore the internal disagreements of the members of the
Union on relation north-south and east-west. 19 It is undisputed that Germany in the following
period will be the most powerful country in the Union which affects not only the development of
the Union but also its extension. In that sense Germany is dominant player for all the countries

13
Evropska bezbednost na raskru i poloaj Srbije, Centar za spoljnu politiku, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, Beograd,
2015.
14
Ibidem.
15
Ibidem.
16
Ibidem.
17
D. ukanovi, The Process of Institutionalization of the EUs CFSP in the Western Balkans Countries during the
Ukraine Crisis, Croatian International Relations Review, op. cit.
18
Rachel Browne, Hungary Is Building a Wall Along the Serbian Border to Keep Migrants Out, Vicenews, July
13, 2015, Internet: https://news.vice.com/article/hungary-is-building-a-wall-along-the-serbian-border-to-keep-
migrants-out, 22/08/2015.
19
Evropska bezbednost na raskru i poloaj Srbije, op. cit.

4
from the West Balkan because from its attitude toward them depends their joining to the
European Union. The potential exit of Britain from the Union (the Brexit) after the scheduled
referendum in 2017 will additionally make this tendencies and the Germanys domination even
stronger. 20

West Balkan 2015- facing itself and the movement toward the European Union

The West Balkan beside the mentioned numerous problems is part of the Euro-Atlantic
integrations. Namely, this long termed and partly uncertain process is gradually progressing for
15 years because it is an introductory process of stabilization and association of the European
Union (1999). 21 Montenegro and Serbia lead this process but without a start of the negotiations.
Bosnia and Herzegovina and Macedonia on the other hand have a visible lag in the process and
are faced with numerous internal problems. Bosnia and Herzegovina is faced with many
problems of the ethno-national elites of Serbs, Bosnians and Croats. Despite the last year's
German-British initiative that should unblock the internal crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina and
reduce the evident instability, but also to accelerate the European integration of the country,
never came to that. It is particularly important to point out that despite the efforts of the
European Union on a Stabilization and Association Agreement with Bosnia and Herzegovina
entered into force, although there were a number of previous preconditions, a significant
progress inside the country never happened even after the formation of its government after last
year's parliamentary elections that happened in early October. 22
At the same time Macedonia which insists on its constitutional name havent solved the
problem with Greece in two and a half decades, and such unfavorable external political situation
strengthens the numerous events connected with the interethnic provocations and Macedonian
deep internal division that was transformed in a conflict between the opposition and the
government in the country. 23 Numerous European and regional analysts believe that the country
is "the most neuralgic point" in the West Balkan region. 24 That means that this country and the
events may cause regional instability as a result of the complex relations with its neighbors
(Greece, Bulgaria, Albania and Serbia).
Kosovo, whose independence has not been recognized by five Member States of the
European Union managed to conclude stabilization and association agreement and its
perspective, is still quite visible. 25 Yet within Kosovo, there are certain problems when it comes
to the acceptance that the Albanian military formations after the NATO intervention in former
Yugoslavia have made ethnic crimes.
We sould have on mind that the dinamyc of approaching of the West Balkan countries
toward the European Union is still followed by the unwillingness of the Union for its

20
Ibidem.
21
D. ukanovi, Evropska unija i Zapadni Balkan: oekivanja i isekivanja, Kultura polisa, op. cit., str. 2538.
22
Gordana Sandi-Hadihasanovi, Odblokirani sporazum sa EU: Nova ansa za BiH, Radio Slobodna Evropa,
Balkanski servis, Prag, 21. april 2015, Internet: http://www.slobodnaevropa.org/content/aktiviranje-sporazuma-sa-
eu-nova-sansa-za-bih/26969388.html, 15/09/2015.
23
No Stability without Accountability The Wests Responsibility in Macedonia, Democratization Policy Council,
Berlin New York, 1 June 2015.
24
Ibidem.
25
See Web presentation fo the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kosovo www.mfa-ks.net.

5
extension. 26 That process will last for at least two decades and not like the Brussels officials say
couple of years ( a statement of the statement by the Commissioner Johannes Hahn that in the
following five years there will be no enlargement of the EU). 27
The European Union will hold the countries from the West Balkan out of its membership
taught from the experience with Bulgaria and Romania (2007), as well as from its experience
with the entrance of Croatia (2013). 28 The delay of the expansion is also a result of the current
financial crisis in Greece. At the same time the numerous unsolved issues within the Western
Balkans can be seen in the numerous unsolved bilateral problems and the potential flashpoints
that can start the 'Balkan tinder-box'. 29 The West Balkan standing at the edge of such processes is
a convinient ground for organized criminal and corruption. But also, the increased criminal
structures and the carriers of the political government and their structureshave an influence too.
The capacities will be strengthened by the strengthening of the religious fanatism that
have shown in the ethnic mixed parts of the West Balkan. These events can strenghten the
mentioned ethnic and religious structures. 30 The participation of the young generation in the
wars in Siria, and Ukraine beside the treats of the criminal sanstioning of this kind of behaviour,
is permanently prolonged in all the countries from the West Balkan. 31
At the same time is visible that the radical islamistic and vahabistic movements have
become stronger in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the region of Sandzak, as well as in Kosovo and in
the West Balkan. 32 It may contain potential risks not only for causing interethnic divisions, but
when it comes to clashes among the Muslims in this part of Europe.
The megalomaniac ethno-national ideas are still present to some degree in the society in
the Balkans. The idea of "indigenous" or natural Albania, in addition to Kosovo may include
parts of Macedonia, Greece, southern Serbia and Montenegro, receiving support in some
performances of Albanian officials. 33 However it is clear that the European Union would not
support such a scenario because that would significantly weaken the sensitive stability in the
region. Also, appears occasionally and again revive the idea of a "Greater Serbia", "Great
Bosnia" ,"Greater Kosovo", etc..

Instead of conclusion

The only reasonable answer of the European Union to the threats for new instability in
the West Balkan is a try for significant acceleration of the integrations of the countries from this
region. Namely, if the countries from the region stay out of the process that can cause much
instability that could influence the EU, which obviously is not totally immune on similar
problems and issues. It is clear that only redesigning and completing the current access to the

26
D. ukanovi, Evropska unija i Zapadni Balkan: oekivanja i isekivanja, Kultura polisa, op. cit., str. 2538.
27
Han: irenje EU tehniki nemogue u narednih pet godina, Blic, Beograd, 2. decembar 2014, Internet:
http://www.blic.rs/Vesti/Svet/516058/Han-Sirenje-EU-tehnicki-nemoguce-u-narednih-pet-godina, 12/09/2015.
28
Evropska bezbednost na raskru i poloaj Srbije, op. cit.
29
Ibidem.
30
D. ukanovi, The new wick on the 'Balkan Power keg'?, Turkish Weekly, op. cit.
31
Ibidem.
32
Ibidem.
33
Autochthonous flag at the Albanian government building, Belgrade issue a note of protest, Indenendent
Balkan News Agency, January 13, 2015, Internet: http://www.balkaneu.com/autochthonous-flag-albanian-
government-building-belgrade-issues-note-protest/, 22/08/2015.

6
European Union through the countries from the West Balkan is a precondition for a full
integration of all the countries and entities in the region and its stabilization.
Any long-term staying of the region of West Balkan out of the European Union and
NATO can cause opening of the old problems which will lead to strengthening of the influence
of the Russian Federation and Turkey. 34 The different regional favorites from these countries
the inter-country and inter-ethnic distance will contribute to new challenges for the stability of
the region and will increase the interstate, and ethnic distance.
At the same time, the proactive attitude of the European Union will stop the "re-
balkanization" of the region, i.e. the ability for creating instability and inter-ethnic intolerance.
The support of EU and the United States of America for complete stability of the region, i.e.
identifying this geopolitical reality which was supported by them back after the breakup of the
Yugoslav federation, may constitute guaranties for its development.
It is important to be noted that the fastening of the accession of Montenegro, Bosnia and
Herzegovina and Macedonia in the NATO will strengthen the security in the whole region. We
should expect that Montenegro will join the NATO by the end of 2015, but the cases of
Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina are conditioned by certain internal reforms, when it
comes to Macedonia that is the issue between the government in Skopje and Greece about the
name of the country. The entrance in the NATO of these countries will reduce the influence of
non-EU actors in the region of the West Balkan and will strengthen the relations with the
United States of America.
A significant problem for the region is the reducing of the ethno-nationalism here. Their
capacities for causing instability are especially strong in all the parts of the West Balkan. Even
though it seemed as certain capacities of ethno-nationalism have weaken it is clear that their
capacities connected to causing certain harassments and potential violence are weak. In
contrary, the revival of the ethno-nationalism is still a potential for new crisis in the region.
There arent real possibilities for consolidation of the situations in the region of the West
Balkan if the present elites with European intention do not start looking toward objective
suppress of the spreading ethnic and religious hatred and intolerance. They are responsible for
nurturing the ethnic structures not only verbally and through the media, but by solving the
problems in the region. We should mentioned that the issues related to the inter-division, the
position of the minorities, the position of the refugees are not solved as well as the succession of
the property of the Former Yugoslav Republic is not conducted. Some countries, like Serbia and
Macedonia have unsolved issues with their neighbors. Serbia has problem with Romania,
Bulgaria and Albania and Macedonia have certain bilateral problems with Greece and Bulgaria.
The solving of these problems is a precondition for the level speed of the accession of Western
Balkan countries into the European Union.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

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34
Evropska bezbednost na raskru i poloaj Srbije, op. cit.

7
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8
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