MODULE 5

Energy Resources
and Impacts

Global Environmental Studies (GES) Course

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LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION, GOALS AND
METHODS
a. What are the goals, objectives and teaching methods of the class?

This module introduces global energy supply and demand, including the
different sources of energy and their environmental impacts, costs and
efficiencies. The shifts of resource usage and strategies for conservation
and enhanced efficiency are discussed.

The Energy Module consists of four (4) contact lectures with participants
over a two (2) week period.

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LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION, GOALS AND
METHODS
a. What are the goals, objectives and teaching methods of the class?

The overall objective of this module is to enable the student to understand and appreciate:

the central importance of energy in the development of an economy, both on the global and national
(South African) level;
the dependence of the world and South Africa on fossil fuels as a sources of energy, and that therefore
energy and climate change are integrally linked;
that globally and in South Africa, access to and consumption of energy are highly skewed and uneven;
that if current and future energy generation and consumption patterns continue to be based on fossil
fuels, these fuels will not only be depleted in the foreseeable future but more importantly the world
would experience catastrophic climate change, possibly within a few decades from now;
that the burning of fossil fuels for energy is highly polluting, with major health and environmental
impacts;
the use of fossil fuels has to be rapidly curtailed and at the same time widespread energy poverty has to
be addressed, to both address climate change and ensure a sustainable and just energy future for
humankind; and
that major advances in the more efficient use of energy and the use of renewable energy resources have
been made but these can be and need to be rapidly implemented, worldwide and in South Africa to
avoid catastrophic climate change.

Note: Fossil Fuels are sources of energy that formed from the accumulated remains of living
organisms that were buried millions years ago. Pressure, heat and time allow the organic matter
to transform into one of the three major types of fossil fuels, which are coal, oil and natural gas.
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LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION, GOALS AND
METHODS
b. What problem set are we going to tackle and how?

Lecture 1 introduces the global energy situation, history of energy sources, consumption and
imbalances, as well as environmental factors, fossil-based resources, non-renewable and
renewable sources, and the life cycle assessment.

Lecture 2 deals with the African and South African energy scene exploring energy consumption,
energy sources, comparative data on South Africa and Africa. The lecture zooms in on energy
within South Africa, particularly non-renewable and renewable energy sources, industrial and
commercial sectors as well as the domestic sector. The lecture further directs attention to
energy in South Africa in both rural and urban contents, domestic and industrial contents, and
environmental factors.

Lecture 3 highlights future strategies of energy supply globally, focusing on energy efficiency,
energy conservation, energy management, decentralization, energy transitions, alternatives,
transport, land use planning of cities, the solar-hydrogen economy, and current research and
predictions.

Lecture 4 explores options for energy supply in South Africa, with particular focus on the
transition and future strategies, energy mix, policy, independent power production, transport,
and current and alternative energy sources.
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LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION, GOALS AND
METHODS
c. The global energy situation, history of energy sources, consumption
and imbalances

Globally, energy is required for industrial activity, mining, agriculture,

commerce and of course household energy consumption for cooking,
heating, lighting and powering electrical devices. Sources of energy are
therefore essential not only for survival but to enjoy the benefits of
modern life.

The question of energy poverty the lack of access to modern, clean,

affordable energy services - confronts a large proportion of the global
population.

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LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION, GOALS AND
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According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), as stated within the
Africa Energy Outlook Report, 2014:

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LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION, GOALS AND
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A further and important context to the discussion of energy is that of
the prevalence of energy poverty. The IEA states that:

Modern energy services are crucial to human well-being and to a countrys

economic development. Access to modern energy is essential for the provision of
clean water, sanitation and healthcare and for the provision of reliable and
efficient lighting, heating, cooking, mechanical power, transport and
telecommunications services. It is an alarming fact that today billions of people
lack access to the most basic energy services: as World Energy Outlook
2014 shows nearly 1.3 billion people are without access to electricity and 2.7
billion people rely on the traditional use of biomass for cooking, which causes
harmful indoor air pollution. These people are mainly in either developing Asia or
sub-Saharan Africa, and in rural areas. (World Energy Outlook, 2014)

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LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION, GOALS AND
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Thus, about 4.0 billion people (55%), of a current world population of about 7.3
billion, do not have access to electricity and/ or are reliant on highly polluting
solid fuels (coal, wood and other biomass) for cooking and heating.

The lack of access to clean modern energy has considerable economic and
health consequences the poor pay more for their energy and suffer ill health
because they have to use highly polluting energy sources such as paraffin
(kerosene), wood and coal:

A lack of access to such services often results in households relying on expensive,

inefficient and hazardous alternatives. For example, households can typically spend 20-
25% of their income on kerosene even though the cost of useful lighting (measured as
$/lumen hour of light) can be 150-times higher than that provided by incandescent
bulbs and 600-times higher than that from compact fluorescent lights. Each year 4.3
million premature deaths, of which nearly 600 000 are in Africa, can be attributed to
household air pollution resulting from the traditional use of solid fuels, such as
fuelwood and charcoal (WHO, 2014). (International Energy Agency (IEA), 2014c)
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LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION, GOALS AND
METHODS
For several decades now the worlds dependence on fossil fuels for
energy, with the attendant greenhouse gas emissions produced by the
combustion of fossil fuels and their climate change impacts, has been
recognized as the most important global environmental problem.

The history of the consumption of the fossil fuels coal, oil and natural gas
for electricity production since 1700 is summarized in Table 1.

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LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION, GOALS AND
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Table 1: World consumption of coal, oil and natural gas for primary energy, 1700 to 2005 (Malanima, undated).

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LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION, GOALS AND
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Table 1 shows that prior to 1850 coal supplied 100% of the worlds
energy, declining to 25% (excluding coal used to generate electricity)
in 2005.

Oils share of global energy supply increased from 3.7% in 1900 to

35% in 2005, with natural gas share increasing from 1.3% to 21%
over the same period. In all three cases (coal, oil and gas)
consumption of these fossil fuels increased rapidly, particularly
between 1950 and 2005 and through to the present.

Although coals share of Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) by energy

content (million tonnes oil equivalent, Mtoe) is less than that of oil,
its contribution to total CO2 emissions is greater, mainly due to the
higher carbon content of coal.

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LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION, GOALS AND
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Thus, although coal represented 29% of the world TPES in 2012, it
accounted for 44% of the global CO2 emissions (32 GtCO2) in 2012,
due to its higher carbon content per unit of energy released, and to
the fact that 18% of the TPES derives from carbon-neutral fuels. As
compared to gas, coal is nearly twice as emission intensive on
average.

Between 1973 and 2012 world total Primary Energy Supply increased
from 6106 Mtoe to 13 371 Mtoe, a compounded growth rate of
about 2.0%. In 2012 fossil fuels continued to dominate world energy
supply with coal (29%), crude oil (32%) and natural gas (21%), total
82% supplying of the total.

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LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION, GOALS AND
METHODS
Current (2013-2014) trends in global primary energy consumption:

World primary energy consumption grew by a below-average 0.9% in 2014, the slowest rate
of growth since 1998 other than the decline in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Growth
was below average in all regions except North America and Africa. All fuels except nuclear
grew at below-average rates. Oil remains the worlds dominant fuel. Hydroelectric and other
renewables in power generation both reached record shares of global primary energy
consumption (6.8% and 2.5%, respectively). (BP, 2015)

Global consumption of energy is extremely unevenly distributed, ranging from

an annual consumption of less than 1.5 Mtoe per capita in India and much of
Africa to more than 6 Mtoe per capita in North America, the Russian Federation
and other high energy consuming countries, shown in Figure 5 (BP, 2015). The
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries
consume, per capita, six times more energy than Africa (International Energy
Agency (IEA), 2014b).

Note: OECD was originally a grouping of rich European and North American
countries, plus Japan. Expanded to 38 countries, excluding China, India, Brazil and
many developing countries

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LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION, GOALS AND
METHODS
d. Recent trends, resources and reserves, non-renewable and
renewable sources, efficiency and conservation

The energy consumption pattern is similar to that of the energy

production pattern, differing only because some of the primary
energy is converted, for example, to electricity.

The consumption of fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas), continues
to increase and dominate world energy production with 50% of
energy derived from oil, 15% from coal and 12% from natural gas,
with a combined total of 77%, in spite of the global warming impact
of this energy consumption pattern (BP, 2015).

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LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION, GOALS AND
METHODS
Fossil fuels are by definition non-renewable finite resources. The
availability of the resource for future consumption is expressed as
the reserves to production ratio (R/P ratio), with reserves expressed
as proven reserves and production as current production (and
consumption) rates.

BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2014:

Coal remains by far the most abundant fossil fuel by R/P ratio, though oil
and natural gas reserves have increased over time. Non-OECD countries
account for the majority of proved reserves for all fossil fuels. The Middle East
holds the largest reserves for oil and natural gas, and the highest R/P ratio
for natural gas; South & Central America hold the highest R/P ratio for oil.
Europe & Eurasia holds the largest coal reserves and the highest R/P ratio.

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LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION, GOALS AND
METHODS
World reserves-to-production ratios (the number of years reserves
available at current production levels) are about 50 years for oil and
gas, and about 110 years for coal.

However, burning these reserves and the consequent release of CO2

into the atmosphere will result in catastrophic climate change. If the
50% of the worlds population that is energy poor gets access to an
equitable share of the worlds energy as demanded by economic and
social justice but without changing the energy consumption patterns,
a similarly catastrophic release of CO2 emissions will occur and the
current reserves will be depleted much more rapidly.

Energy access to the energy poor has to be expanded while at the

same time the sources of primary energy have to move away from
fossil fuels.
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LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION, GOALS AND
METHODS
Of course new reserves of fossil fuels may be found through
developing new technologies to exploit these resources such as deep
sea oil extraction or fracking (hydraulic fracking) for natural gas or
drilling for oil in the arctic regions but these methods are not only
more environmentally destructive but will simply defer the resource
depletion problem by a few years.

South Africas coal reserves-to-production ratio is about 116, that is,

116 years coal reserves at current production rates (BP, 2015).

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LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION, GOALS AND
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LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION, GOALS AND
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Renewables (non-hydro) energy

Energy obtained from renewable resources (wind, solar and biomass)

currently still make only a small contribution to global energy production,
but its share is growing rapidly.

In 2014 renewables were again the fastest growing form of energy and, in a
year [2014] when global consumption growth slowed sharply, they
accounted for one-third of the increase in total primary energy use.
Renewables provided around 3% of the worlds energy needs. (BP, 2015).

Renewable energy in power grew by 12.0%, the lowest rate of growth since
2006. Nevertheless renewables continued to increase their share of
electricity production, accounting for 6.0% of global electricity. Asia Pacific
contributed the largest growth increment, led by China, while Africa recorded
the fastest growth rate. Europe & Eurasia continues to lead in terms of share
of power generation, with non-hydro renewables now supplying nearly 17%
of EU power generation. (BP, 2015).

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LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION, GOALS AND
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There has been a rapid growth in renewable energy consumption and
generation by region since around 2004.

Africas slow entry into the renewables field and its late spurt in
2014, almost entirely due to South Africas renewable energy plants
(mainly wind and solar PV, and some biomass) coming online, is
noteworthy.

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LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION, GOALS AND
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LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION, GOALS AND
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Global sectoral energy demand and energy efficiency

The primary energy demand for electricity generation (from coal

mainly), and for transport fuels (from crude oil), remains the largest
sectors.

The energy efficiency, the fraction of energy produced in the form of

electricity compared to the energy in the coal burnt, of coal fired
power stations is low, about 35%.

Further losses of energy occur through the distribution system and

through less than 100% energy efficiency of the end user, although
some or all of these further losses would occur regardless of the
source of primary energy.

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LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION, GOALS AND
METHODS
Transport energy

Globally, in 2011 the transport sector accounted for 27% of Total Final Energy
Consumption (TFC), up from 23% in 1973, with almost three-quarters of its
consumption due to road transport. Driven by increasing demand especially in
non-member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development (OECD), transport is expected to maintain a very prominent role
within global energy demand of the next few decades.(International Energy
Agency (IEA), 2014)

Currently (and over the last 40 years), oil products provide about 93% of the
worlds transport energy, with biofuels providing about 2% and electricity about
1% of the transport energy. Of the total transport energy about 90% is for road
transport, with rail (2%), air (5%) and water (3%) constituting the rest.

The potential to transport people and freight more efficiently starts with the
recognition that different modes of transport have very different efficiencies. For
example, the energy cost of the transport of 1 ton-mile of freight by rail is less
than 10% that of truck (road) transport, Table 2.

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LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION, GOALS AND
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Table 2: Energy intensity of domestic freight transportation modes in the U.S., 2006 (Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Transportation Energy
Data Book, National Transportation Statistics, 2008)

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LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION, GOALS AND
METHODS
Much greater freight transport efficiency can therefore be achieved
by a modal shift from road to rail.

Public transport is generally more energy efficient, measured on a

passenger-km basis, than private car transport, and passenger-rail
transport is more energy efficient than public or private road
transport.

Thus a modal shift from commuting in private vehicles to public bus

or passenger rail transport would not only greatly improve transport
energy efficiency but would also reduce traffic congestion and total
pollutant and CO2 emissions from cars. However this would clearly
require considerable investment in public transport infrastructure.

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LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION, GOALS AND
METHODS
Modern engine technology, improvements in passenger vehicle
design and the development of more fuel efficient passenger-diesel
vehicles, have resulted in great improvements in overall fuel
efficiency but the overall benefit of these energy efficiency
improvements have largely been offset by the promotion of larger
and more powerful vehicles such as SUVs (Sports Utility Vehicles)
and the increase in vehicle numbers.

Hence the overall consumption of transport fuels has continued to

rise, increasing by an average of 1.25% per year between 1973 and
2012.

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LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION, GOALS AND
METHODS
World wind resources

Documented World Wind Potential close to 100 million Megawatt

actual potential even higher.

Bonn, 15 December 2014 (WWEA) The Technical Committee of the World

Wind Energy Association has published the first World Wind Resource
Assessment Report. The report gives a comprehensive [but conservative, not
all countries are covered] overview of currently available wind resources
assessment from most world regions, as far as available. The total wind
potential of the world, as identified by these existing studies, is 95 million
Megawatt or 95 Terawatt. The relation to the current global energy demand
of around 100 000 Terawatt hours suggests that wind energy alone would be
more than sufficient to cover the worlds energy supply several times.

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LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION, GOALS AND
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Stefan Gsnger, WWEA Secretary General: The new WWEA report
underlines once more that there is no scarcity of energy on our planet. We
can state that we have an abundance of wind alone, although some of the
documented figures are still rather conservative. In addition to wind, also
solar, hydro, geothermal and bioenergy can contribute a lot to mankinds
energy supply hence a combination of renewable energies makes it even
easier to satisfy the demand. Also in terms of cost, wind power can now beat
todays fossil and nuclear power. The main challenges are still in the need to
change the energy market regulations all over the world so that this
abundance can be used, for the benefit of human development, of the
climate and the environment in general. (World Wind Energy Association
(WWEA), 2014)

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LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION, GOALS AND
METHODS
The past few years have seen a rapid growth in the use of wind
energy, increasing from about 237 000 MW installed capacity in 2011
to about 370 000 MW in 2014, at an average growth rate of 16% per
year. China, the USA and Germany have the largest installed wind
capacities, with installed capacity of 114 763MW, 65 879MW and
40 468MW, respectively.

Wind energy costs have decreased rapidly. In South Africa wind

energy costs per unit of electricity generated have decreased
between 2011 and 2014 to below that of newly built coal plants.
Costs have levelled off as the technology has matured.

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LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION, GOALS AND
METHODS
World solar resources

Solar PV (photovoltaic) systems directly convert solar energy

(radiation) into electricity.

Solar PV systems may be installed on individual rooftops or in large

arrays for power generation.

Solar PV costs have decreased rapidly over the last 5 or 6 years, from
about $1.29 in 2009 to about $47 in 2014, although the costs have
begun to level off.

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LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION, GOALS AND
METHODS
Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) systems use parabolic arrays of mirrors to
concentrate solar radiation to generate steam and electricity.

Trieb et al (2009), modelled the performance of different CSP configurations

and, together with considerations of land use, topography, hydrology,
geomorphology, infrastructure, protected areas etc. excluding sites that are
not technically feasible for the construction of concentrating solar power
plants estimated global CSP potential:

The global technical potential of concentrating solar power amounts to almost

3,000,000 TWh/y, a number considerably larger than the present world electricity
consumption of 18,000 TWh/y. Under desert conditions, CSP plants with large
solar fields and thermal energy storage are in principle capable of producing base
load electricity at full capacity for up to 8000 hours per year. (Trieb, F et al.,
2009)

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LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION, GOALS AND
METHODS
Breyer and Knies (2009), reached a similar conclusion in relation to
the potential of CSP:

Based on global datasets for direct normal irradiance and population density
the energy supply potential of concentrating solar power was estimated.
There are clear indications that 90% of world population connectable per grid
to deserts could be supplied only by CSP via HVDC power lines not longer than
3,000 km. Less than 0.4% and 2.8% of the electricity potential of worldwide
potential CSP areas would be required for electric and non-electric energy
needs, respectively, on the todays European energy consumption level.
Therefore, only a small fraction of 0.4% to 2.8% of global CSP energy supply
potential would be needed to cover global energy demand.

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LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION, GOALS AND
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The largest areas in the world for CSP use are located in North Africa,
South Africa, Middle East, India, Australia, North America and South
America.

Different from most natural resources, solar energy in the form of

direct normal irradiance is allocated around the world and nearly all
populated areas may be connected to the areas of excellent solar
conditions, (see Figure 1).

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LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION, GOALS AND
METHODS

Figure 1: Global direct normal irradiance. Data are based on DLR-ISIS [9] of German Aerospace Centre (DLR) and are derived from
International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project - areas of at least 2000 kWh/m/y are needed for CSP plants due to economic
constraints

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LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION, GOALS AND
METHODS
e. Environmental factors, fossil-based resources, non-renewable and
renewable sources, life-cycle assessment

Coal power stations not only emit CO2 but N2O (another powerful
greenhouse gas) and the pollutants PM10, NOx, SO2 and mercury.

Coal mining results in acid mine drainage, fugitive PM emissions and land
degradation through the mining operation and the dumping of ash, up to 0.4
tons of ash per ton of coal burnt.

Similarly the combustion of liquid fuels in vehicles (cars and trucks), not only
results in the emissions of CO2 but PM10, NOx, SO2 and VOCs. The extraction
and distribution of natural gas results in the emission of methane (a
powerful greenhouse gas); the burning of methane produces CO2, although
the CO2 intensity (the amount of CO2 emitted per unit of energy) is less,
about 50% of that of coal.

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LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION, GOALS AND
METHODS
The life cycle CO2 emissions for coal power stations are dominated by the
emission rate during production, about 1.0 kg CO2/kWh of electricity
generated. Emissions during construction of the power plant are only
significant during the construction period.

If the world is to move to renewable energy sources such as wind and solar
PV power, the life cycle of CO2 (and other) emissions should also be
considered (see Table 3).

For wind and solar plants, CO2 and other emissions during operation are
negligible. For solar PV systems, life cycle emissions, including emissions
incurred during construction, decommissioning and recycling, are estimated
in the range 20 to 45 g CO2 eq./kWh (i.e, 0.02 to 0.045 kgCO2 eq./kWh)
(Bekkelund, 2013).

For on-shore wind systems, life cycle emissions are 5 to 20g CO2 eq./kWh
(Arvesen et al., undated). Life cycle CO2 emissions for wind and solar PV
systems are therefore less than 1/20th the emissions from coal power plants.

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LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION, GOALS AND
METHODS
Table 3: Approximate life cycle CO emissions for different energy sources

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LECTURE 2: THE AFRICAN AND SOUTH
AFRICAN ENERGY SCENE
a. Background, energy consumption, energy sources, comparative data in South
Africa and Africa

Africa, with a total population of about 1.1 billion people, is characterised by

income poverty (about 40% live on less than US$1.25 per day) and unequal
distribution of income, largely reflected in its overall energy poverty and unequal
access to clean energy. Even countries rich in oil suffer fuel shortages and
extensive electricity outages, which have a direct effect on economic activity (BP,
2015).

In sub-Saharan Africa (Africa other than North Africa):

More than 620 million people [56%] live without access to electricity and nearly 730 million
people [66%] use hazardous, inefficient forms of cooking, a reliance which affects women
and children disproportionately. Meanwhile, those who do have access to modern energy
face very high prices for a supply that is both insufficient and unreliable. (International
Energy Agency, 2014c).

Yet Africa has excellent solar energy resources (Figure 2), with large areas
receiving more than 2000 kWh/m2 (2.0 MWh/m2) per year.

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Figure 2: Africa Solar Energy Resources
LECTURE 2: THE AFRICAN AND SOUTH
AFRICAN ENERGY SCENE
b. Energy in South Africa, non-renewable and renewable energy sources,
industrial and commercial sectors, domestic sector

In South Africa, although there has been a rapid increase in access to

electricity over the 20 years since the advent of democracy (from 36% of
households in 1994 to 77-87% in 2014), but Almost 7 million households
[that is 47% of about 15 million total households (Statistics South Africa
(STATSSA, 2013)] continue to largely rely on unsafe, and inferior forms of
energy. (Sustainable Energy Africa (SEA), 2014).

The 7 million households using unsafe, inferior forms of energy such as

candles, fuelwood, paraffin and coal, are exposed to unhealthy indoor air
pollution and fire hazards, particularly in informal settlements and poorly
constructed energy inefficient RDP houses (BP, 2015).

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LECTURE 2: THE AFRICAN AND SOUTH
AFRICAN ENERGY SCENE

The largest energy (total energy) consumers are industry (32%),

transport (27%), residential (19%) and mining (8%).

Electricity generation is overwhelmingly based on coal-fired power

stations (about 90%), with nuclear power (5%), gas, hydro-electricity
and diesel supplying the rest up to 2012. Since 2012 a number of
wind, solar and biomass generation plants have come online.

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LECTURE 2: THE AFRICAN AND SOUTH
AFRICAN ENERGY SCENE
Eskom operates 27 power stations with a total nominal capacity of 41
995MW, comprising 35 726MW of coal-fired stations, 1 860MW of nuclear, 2
409MW of gas-fired, 2 000MW hydro and pumped-storage stations as well
as the 3MW wind farm at Klipheuwel. In nominal capacity terms, Eskom
generates 85% of its power from coal.

Eskom sold 217 903GWh [784 451 Terajoule [TJ]] of electricity to about 800
municipalities in bulk, 3 000 industrial customers, 1 000 mining customers,
50 000 commercial customers and 84 000 agricultural customers in 2013/14.

It also supplied electricity to more than 5.1 million residential customers

(Sustainable Energy Africa (SEA), 2015). Eskom direct electricity sales (2012-
2013) by customer are as follows: municipalities (42.2%), industry (23.8%),
mining (14.6%), commercial and agriculture (6.8%), exports (6.4%),
residential (4.8%), rail (1.4%).

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LECTURE 2: THE AFRICAN AND SOUTH
AFRICAN ENERGY SCENE
In 2013-2014, Eskom coal-fired power stations emitted 233.3 million
tons of CO2, 2 969 tons of N2O, 1.98 million tons of SO2 and 79 000
tons of particulate matter and generated 231 129 GWh of power. In
addition, these power stations discarded 35.0 million tons of ash and
used 317 billion litres of water (Eskom, 2014). The annual CO2
emissions equate to 1.0kg CO2/kWh of power generated.

In 2014 wind and solar combined only generated about 1% of total

electricity sent out, but this percentage will increase as renewable
energy projects already under construction and approved come
online over the next 2-3 years.

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LECTURE 2: THE AFRICAN AND SOUTH
AFRICAN ENERGY SCENE
Two factors contribute to the dominance of coal in South Africas energy
supply: coal is the primary energy source used by the power utility Eskom for
electricity production (85-90%), and 20-25% of South Africas liquid
(transportation) fuels is produced through the extremely energy intensive
and CO2 emitting coal-to-liquids Sasol process. Coal and oil products account
for about 94% of South Africas total energy supply.

The fossil fuel basis of South Africas energy supply, and its energy intensive
transportation system and industries, is reflected in the Greenhouse Gas
Emission Inventory, with emissions from (CO2eq., 2010 figures) energy
sector 85% of total emissions, energy industries constituting 59% of total
emissions, road transportation (8%), iron and steel production (6%), ferro-
alloys (5%), cement (5%) and liquid fuels (Sasol coal-to-liquids plants)
constituting the other significant sources. Total emissions from all sources,
excluding the Land sub-sector in 2010: 580 000 GgCO2eq. (580 million
tonnes CO2eq.) (Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA), 2013).

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LECTURE 2: THE AFRICAN AND SOUTH
AFRICAN ENERGY SCENE
c. Electricity in South Africa, rural/urban, domestic/industrial, environmental
factors

In November 2013, the Statistician-General of South Africa summarized the

status of energy supply in South Africa as follows:

The number of South African households with legal electricity connections had increased by
49% between 2002 and 2012, from 8.3-million to 12.4-million households;
4.1-million connections were made over the 10-year period, despite 3.8-million new
households being added over the same period, bringing the total number of households to
14.6-million in 2012;
85.3% of households were connected to the electricity grid in 2012. Of the 15% still not
connected, 4% had no electricity access, while 11% were connected to electricity but not via
the mains, with many of these being illegal connections;
12.6% of South Africans, mainly in the country's rural areas, still used wood for cooking.
For households with a per capita income of under R390 a month, just 79% had electricity
connections, compared to 94% for those with monthly incomes of R4 000 or more; and
While 94% of formal homes and 91% of state-subsidised homes were connected to the grid,
just 54% of households in informal areas and 63% in traditional areas had connections to the
grid.

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LECTURE 2: THE AFRICAN AND SOUTH
AFRICAN ENERGY SCENE
Access to electricity and energy poverty are unevenly distributed
within cities and towns, and between urban and rural areas. The
report Tackling Urban Energy Poverty in South Africa (Sustainable
Energy Africa (SEA), 2014) highlighted the following:

77% electrified 6 million households remain without electricity;

13.65% of South Africas population reside in informal dwellings in shacks
and not in formal houses;
51% of the poor access Free Basic Electricity;
Close to 3 million households live in RDP houses without a ceiling; and
43% of South Africas population are energy poor.

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LECTURE 2: THE AFRICAN AND SOUTH
AFRICAN ENERGY SCENE
The report also highlighted the link between the quality of housing and energy
poverty:

Households require energy for essential services in order to satisfy basic human needs and a
lack of choice in accessing adequate, reliable, safe and environmentally benign energy
services is the way in which energy poverty manifests itself (UNDP, 2000).

Within the urban context energy poverty is particularly prevalent in informal settlements
(usually situated on land unauthorized or not zoned for residential development) and
includes those households living in backyard shacks of formal properties in overcrowded
conditions.

The majority of informal settlements are situated on the periphery of cities, many of which
do not have formal access to Eskom or Municipal distributed electricity.

Those that have access to electricity are generally receiving it through illegal connections
although there is now a national drive to electrify informal settlements located on
proclaimed land. Currently South Africa has a population of 51.7 million people living in
approximately 14.5 million households of which 1.96 million are informal i.e. living in
informal dwellings. This equates to approximately 13.6 % of the national population of which
8% reside in South Africas largest cities (metros).(BP, 2015).

47
LECTURE 3: FUTURE STRATEGIES OF ENERGY
SUPPLY GLOBALLY
a. Energy efficiency, energy conservation, energy management, and
decentralization

Energy efficiency may be defined in terms of the amount of energy used to

achieve a given result. It may be defined in many contexts. Some of the
examples are the energy needed for a given level of lighting, heating and
cooling in homes and buildings, the energy needed to transport goods and
people, the energy need to produce industrial products such as cement,
aluminium and steel or the energy needed to grow food.

A reduction in energy use to achieve the same result may be regarded as an

improvement in energy efficiency, but such a simple approach may not be
enough to produce the substantial and radical reductions in energy use
required to avoid both catastrophic climate change and address the energy
poverty currently experienced by 50% of the worlds population.

48
LECTURE 3: FUTURE STRATEGIES OF ENERGY
SUPPLY GLOBALLY
A large scale and rapid migration from fossil fuel combustion as the
main source of energy to renewable sources is required as well as
changes such as a reduction in food miles (the large distances that
food is transported from farms to consumers) and a switch from road
(private) passenger transport and road freight transport to much
more energy efficient rail and public transport.

A few examples of possible and actual improvements in energy

efficiency follow.

49
LECTURE 3: FUTURE STRATEGIES OF ENERGY
SUPPLY GLOBALLY
Home and commercial lighting

One of the highly successful responses to the need for greater energy
efficiency for lighting has been the development of firstly Compact
Fluorescent Lights (CFLs) and even better, LEDs (Light Emitting
Diodes). CFLs use about 1/5th the energy of a comparable
incandescent light, until recently the standard light available in
homes, and last about 6 times longer.

The disadvantages of CFLs are that they contain toxic mercury and
require careful disposal, and take a few seconds to achieve full
brightness. In the last year LEDs with comparable or better lighting
characteristics and even better energy efficiency, 50% that of a CFL
and greater durability (25 000 to 50 000 hours life) have become
available for domestic use at competitive prices.
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LECTURE 3: FUTURE STRATEGIES OF ENERGY
SUPPLY GLOBALLY

Good quality LEDs for domestic lighting are not yet widely available in South
Africa and the large scale migration from CFLs to LEDs has yet to start, but this
is an example of the possibilities of a step change in energy efficiencies with
large scale impacts once fully implemented.

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LECTURE 3: FUTURE STRATEGIES OF ENERGY
SUPPLY GLOBALLY
Solar water geysers

Solar Water Geysers (or Heaters) (SWH) directly capture energy from the sun
to heat and store the energy as hot water. Since water heating for bathing
and washing constitutes a significant proportion, up to 40%, of daily energy
needs, SWHs may reduce household energy demand by 20-25% if properly
installed and operated.

Modern solar water heaters include a back-up element to ensure that hot
water is always available even in adverse weather but a timer should be
installed to ensure that water heating takes place off peak hours.

The replacement of conventional geysers with solar water heaters is usually

the single most cost effective and significant intervention to reduce
household energy demand.

52
LECTURE 3: FUTURE STRATEGIES OF ENERGY
SUPPLY GLOBALLY
Energy efficient appliances

Energy efficient household appliances (fridges, washing machines)

reduce household energy consumption.

Energy efficient homes

Designing more energy efficient homes reduces the need for heating
and cooling while maintaining or improving comfort levels. This
reduces overall energy consumption.

53
LECTURE 3: FUTURE STRATEGIES OF ENERGY
SUPPLY GLOBALLY
Energy efficient production processes

Industrial processes can achieve significant energy savings through

replacing pumps and fans with more efficient units and ensuring that
these units operate at or close to optimal efficiency and through heat
conservation measures.

Deep, underground mines in particular that use large amounts of

energy for ventilation fans and for cooling can achieve significant
energy savings by retrofitting with more energy efficient systems.

54
LECTURE 3: FUTURE STRATEGIES OF ENERGY
SUPPLY GLOBALLY
b. Energy transitions, alternatives

In the current situation the richest countries consume more than 6

times as much energy per person compared with the poorest
countries, more than 80% of global energy is obtained from the
combustion of greenhouse gas emitting fossil fuels and about 50% of
the worlds population is energy poor.

Climate change considerations demand a rapid reduction in

greenhouse gases, by 60% to 80% over 1990 levels, to avoid
dangerous climate change. At the same time the worlds energy
poor demands access to clean energy.

55
LECTURE 3: FUTURE STRATEGIES OF ENERGY
SUPPLY GLOBALLY
Alternatives to fossil fuels exist. Current renewable energy technologies
(wind and solar PV) and emerging technologies such as CSP could rapidly
(within decades), replace fossil fuel electricity.

Existing electric vehicle technology and transportation systems could greatly

reduce fossil fuel based liquid transportation fuels. Combined with energy
efficiency measures, a low carbon future is possible. Social justice and
climate justice demands that the energy poverty of 50% of the worlds
population be addressed at the same time. The over-abundance of
renewable energy resources makes this possible.

The transition from the high-carbon energy intensive present, to a low

carbon energy equitable future, is hampered not by technology (although
further technological developments are needed), but by the active
resistance of two major global industries the coal and oil industries.

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LECTURE 3: FUTURE STRATEGIES OF ENERGY
SUPPLY GLOBALLY
c. Transport, land use planning of cities

Urban transport energy needs are dominated by daily commuting needs to work
and educational institutions, and more generally the layout or geography of
cities. Motorised road transport, particularly the use of private vehicles, is the
dominant form of transport. Combined with urban sprawl, the spreading out of
cities, this leads to large travel distances, traffic congestion, excessive travel
times, and excessive use of energy and air pollution, including greenhouse gas
emissions.

The medium term response to this nearly worldwide situation is to strengthen

(or develop if necessary), energy efficient public transport systems such as
passenger rail systems, the use of energy efficient and low polluting public
transport vehicles and discouraging to use of private vehicles. Discouraging the
sale and use of energy inefficient vehicles using fossil fuels through, for example,
an emissions tax and mandating (making compulsory) energy efficiency
standards, is an effective approach used in some countries, but resisted in
others.

In the longer term cities have to be redesigned to reduce the demand for
transport energy. 57
LECTURE 3: FUTURE STRATEGIES OF ENERGY
SUPPLY GLOBALLY
d. Solar-hydrogen economy, current research and predictions

The hydrogen economy is a proposed system of delivering energy using

hydrogen as a fuel (strictly as an energy carrier), instead of petrol/ diesel as
at present. The concept is thus of a hydrogen based transport system to
replace one based on petroleum liquid fuels (petrol and diesel). The solar-
hydrogen economy would use solar energy as the primary source of energy
and hydrogen as the energy carrier.

There are many technological complexities associated with the development

of a hydrogen economy as a replacement for one based on burning fossil
fuels. Hydrogen is of course abundantly available bound to oxygen in the
form of water. There are no natural reservoirs of hydrogen, so the first
problem is that hydrogen has to be produced via one or more of several
possible novel routes (currently the main route is via steam reforming using
fossil fuels). The electrolysis of water is extremely energy intensive and not
practical on a large scale. Secondly, systems must be developed to store and
distribute the hydrogen. Hydrogen can be burnt in an internal combustion
engine in a similar way to petrol, producing and emitting only water vapour.
Alternately hydrogen fuel cells can be used to generate electricity to power
electric cars. 58
LECTURE 3: FUTURE STRATEGIES OF ENERGY
SUPPLY GLOBALLY
Hydrogen presents an extreme fire explosion hazard. A hydrogen economy
would need a safe hydrogen distribution and storage system.

The hydrogen economy concept has been criticised on a number of

grounds, including its lower energy efficiency compared with direct use of
electricity to power vehicles, that current technologies require the use of
fossil fuels to generate hydrogen, the costs and safety of the system, among
others.

Ultimately the concept has to compete (in terms of capital requirements,

energy cost, safety, overall energy efficiency, among other criteria), with an
alternative such as the generation of primary energy in the form of
electricity, the distribution of the electricity using mainly existing electricity
networks, modified and expanded as necessary, and the use of electric
vehicles (passenger cars).

59
LECTURE 4: OPTIONS FOR ENERGY SUPPLY IN
SOUTH AFRICA
a. Transition and future strategies, energy mix, policy, independent power
production, transport

In earlier lectures in this module we have seen that South Africa is

characterized by:

a very unequal distribution of access to energy resources with about 40-50% of its
people living in energy poverty;
a formal economy that is very energy intensive and energy inefficient and at the
same time extremely carbon intensive, utilizing climate changing fossil fuels to
supply more than 90% of its energy needs; and
a dependency on finite and depleting fossil fuel, coal, for more than 70% of its
energy needs. This resource will probably be depleted, even at current production
levels, in about 100 years. Even if further exploration reveals additional supplies
these will be more difficult and energy intensive to exploit, and will merely
postpone the resource depletion problem, not resolve it.

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LECTURE 4: OPTIONS FOR ENERGY SUPPLY IN
SOUTH AFRICA
The continued mining of coal wreaks enormous environmental
damage through water and air pollution. The combustion of the coal
to generate power has further enormous air pollution and
environmental health impacts in addition to the emission of the
greenhouse gas CO2.

The South Africa economy as currently structured is both highly

energy intensive (it uses a lot of energy per unit of economic output)
and its energy supply is exceptionally dependent on fossil fuels. It
therefore scores very poorly in terms of the carbon intensity index,
the fourth highest (worst) in the world. In other words, its emissions
of greenhouse gases and contribution to Global Warming are
disproportionately high.

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LECTURE 4: OPTIONS FOR ENERGY SUPPLY IN
SOUTH AFRICA
Household energy

Only 55% of the population benefit from modern domestic energy (mainly
electricity), the other 45% is energy poor as they are dependent on highly
polluting, inefficient and frequently expensive energy supplies.

If development expands energy access to the energy-poor 45% using the

current mode of energy production (coal power), the problems of air
pollution, land and water degradation and South Africas contribution to
global warming will worsen.

Social and environmental justice therefore demands that both the energy
poor have access to clean modern energy and that energy production is
rapidly shifted to clean renewable energy.

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LECTURE 4: OPTIONS FOR ENERGY SUPPLY IN
SOUTH AFRICA
There are significant opportunities to both improve South Africas
energy efficiency and to begin to address the energy poverty
experienced by half the population.

The primary intervention has to be to ensure that every household

has an adequate income and is housed in a properly constructed
energy efficient home. Interventions such as the provision of energy
efficient lighting, the installation of solar water heaters and
improving the heat insulation properties of homes through
retrofitting and ensuring that each household has an adequate
electricity supply can alleviate energy poverty in the short term.

Solar water heaters can potentially (in formal middle class housing)
save about 25% of household energy and energy efficient lighting a
further 10%.
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LECTURE 4: OPTIONS FOR ENERGY SUPPLY IN
SOUTH AFRICA
Transport energy

South Africas current passenger transport energy demands must be placed in

the context of the geography of its cities and towns planned during Apartheid.
Under Apartheid black people, generally poor and working class, were housed
in separate townships distant from places of work, education and commercial
activity, a situation that has changed marginally over the past 20 years. An
extensive survey by the Department of Transport in 2003, showed that 76% of
the South African population (about 80% in urban areas and about 70% in rural
areas), made a trip during the week preceding the survey. Only 6% of these trips
are made by train, 94% use a transport mode that uses petrol or diesel 47%
use minibus taxis, 33% cars and 12% buses (Department of Transport, 2003).

In the 2013 survey (Statistics South Africa (STATSSA), 2013), the percentage of
people making trips had increased to 81% and the percentage using rains had
increased to 10%. These figures not only reflect a slowly improving, but still
inadequate public transport system, but the heavy dependence, 90% of the
transport trips, on fossil fuels.

64
LECTURE 4: OPTIONS FOR ENERGY SUPPLY IN
SOUTH AFRICA
Since 2010 the Department of Transport (with city governments), has
introduced diesel bus-based public transport systems (BRT Bus Rapid
Transit systems) in the major cities, but these networks have yet to be
expanded to cater for the transport needs of the majority of commuters.
More recently (2014) the department announced the intention to spend R51
billion on the national commuter rail network, with the intention of moving
commuters from road to rail. In the longer term the reshaping of cities and
towns is required to reduce commuting distances.

Bulk freight transport, the movement of large tonnages of materials such as

coal and iron ore, is done by rail. General freight transport, the movement of
more valuable or smaller volumes of materials, remains heavily biased
towards (diesel powered) road rather than rail transport. Road transport
carries 88% of general freight by tonnage (2013: total 1740 million tonnes),
70% by tonnes-km (2013: 441 billion tonne-kms). A significant shift from
road to rail freight, particularly from the transport corridors between major
cities, is required to benefit from the greater cost and energy efficiency of
rail transport and to relieve the pressure of heavy duty trucks on South
Africas road network.

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LECTURE 4: OPTIONS FOR ENERGY SUPPLY IN
SOUTH AFRICA
Future energy generation mix

South Africa also has exceptionally good renewable solar and wind
resources, far in excess of its current and future energy consumption needs.
The first tentative steps to use these resources have been taken, and have
already borne limited fruit. But the looming Climate Change global problem
cannot wait for a slow incremental response and change to the level of
greenhouse gas emissions.

A strategy to rapidly move from the current situation to one with greatly
reduced CO2 emissions, within a few decades, is required. That is, a just but
rapid transition from the current carbon intensive situation is required to a
future that not only expands clean energy access to those who do not have
access but greatly reduces its carbon emissions through energy efficiency
programs and a switch from fossil fuelled power to renewable sources of
power.

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LECTURE 4: OPTIONS FOR ENERGY SUPPLY IN
SOUTH AFRICA
South Africas official policy is to have a mix of energy sources, including
coal, natural gas, nuclear, renewables (wind and solar) and biomass. The
justification for the continued use of coal is that coal is an abundant local
resource and that coal power stations are required for base load power.

The argument is that since power demand fluctuates diurnally (over a 24

hour period) and from day to day and season to season, but with a base
load that has to be supplied with 100% reliability, a supply source such as
coal or nuclear is required to guarantee this base load supply. Wind and
solar power are naturally intermittent sources the wind does not always
blow, and the sun does not always shine and thus are inherently
unsuitable for base load power.

The potential of domestic rooftop solar panels, with or without battery

storage, to significantly change the current electricity demand-supply
pattern has yet to be explored. In fact government and local authorities are
reluctant to facilitate such a development due likely to the loss of revenue to
municipalities.

67
LECTURE 4: OPTIONS FOR ENERGY SUPPLY IN
SOUTH AFRICA
Research and actual experience over the last decade or so, has
shown that the problem of a fluctuating demand can be addressed in
several ways by flattening the diurnal peaks (avoiding or reducing
morning and evening peaks in household energy demand), through
energy storage (South Africa already has two pumped storage
systems, and a third is under construction), though geographically
distributed wind power, among other systems.

CSP systems can be designed with storage for a few hours or with
sufficient storage to provide a continuous power supply, although at
additional cost.

68
LECTURE 4: OPTIONS FOR ENERGY SUPPLY IN
SOUTH AFRICA
Budischak et al showed that it is theoretically possible to power a
regional grid with renewables only, minimal electrochemical storage
with a high degree of availability and with costs comparable to
current costs (Budischak et al., 2013).

Jacobson and Delucchi (2011) suggested that the worlds 2030 energy
needs could be met using wind, water (hydroelectric) and solar
(WWS) energy and concluded that: Barriers to the plan are primarily
social and political, not technological or economic. The energy cost in
a WWS world should be similar to that today.

The national grid has to be redesigned to handle not only a

fluctuating demand but also a distributed and fluctuating supply. The
problems of fluctuating loads and fluctuating renewable supply are
therefore not insurmountable.
69
LECTURE 4: OPTIONS FOR ENERGY SUPPLY IN
SOUTH AFRICA
A second argument raised against accelerated strategic (with a long
term view) investment in solar and wind power is that the energy
cost is higher than that of coal based power. A recent (April 2014)
comparative analysis by the US Energy Information Administration
showed that the average cost per unit of electricity generated (LCOE
Levelized Cost of Electricity) for onshore wind power is about 15%
less than that for conventional coal, and that solar PV power is about
30% higher.

Nuclear power is the most expensive option to a significant degree,

both in capital terms and in terms of the (levelised) cost of power
generated. In addition there are long term safety concerns with
nuclear power, and the problem of the disposal of nuclear waste
remains unresolved.

70
LECTURE 4: OPTIONS FOR ENERGY SUPPLY IN
SOUTH AFRICA
The Renewable Energy Independent Power Producers Programme (REIPPP)

The REIPP has now gone through 4 bidding rounds (since 2011) and is
regarded as highly successful in that plants have been built on cost and on
time. The plants procured in the early rounds began to feed into the national
grid during 2014, with substantial financial benefits (Council for Scientific
and Industrial Research (CSIR), 2015).

The very limited South African experience is similar that wind and solar
tariffs (costs per unit) have decreased substantially during each bid cycle for
South Africas renewable energy program, the Renewable Energy
Independent Power Purchase Programme. For wind, costs reduced from
R1.28 per kWh in Bid Window 1, November 2011 to R0.74 per kWh in Bid
Window 3. For solar PV, costs reduced from R3.10 to R0.99 per kWh over the
same three cycles (CSIR, 2015).

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LECTURE 4: OPTIONS FOR ENERGY SUPPLY IN
SOUTH AFRICA
The technology of wind power generation has more or less matured,
and relative costs are not expected to improve much more in the
future, but solar PV is still developing rapidly, and costs have
decreased rapidly.

By comparison, new coal power (Medupi and Kusile) LCOE is likely

to be considerably more that R1.00 per kWh.

In addition, both wind and solar plants are built and commissioned
within 2-3 years, compared with construction time of 10 to 15 years
for Medupi and Kusile.

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LECTURE 4: OPTIONS FOR ENERGY SUPPLY IN
SOUTH AFRICA
On 16th April 2015, the Minister of Energy announced the successful bidders
for the 4th Bid Window, and summarized the programme to date. This
brings a total of 79 projects approved by the Department of Energy with a
capacity of 5 243MW across all Renewable Energy Bid Windows. This
represents a massive investment of R168 billion in economic infrastructure in
our country, which will contribute to economic growth and job creation, in
addition to the contribution it makes to security of electricity supply
(Department of Energy, 2015).

In the same announcement the minister declared the intention to expand

the REIPPP on an accelerated basis.

When the 5 423 MW of renewable power comes fully online it will provide
about 6% of electricity supply.

In the same announcement the minister declared the intention to expand

the REIPPP on an accelerated basis.

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LECTURE 4: OPTIONS FOR ENERGY SUPPLY IN
SOUTH AFRICA

Table 4: Summary of the declining costs of wind and solar power in South Africa

74
LECTURE 4: OPTIONS FOR ENERGY SUPPLY IN
SOUTH AFRICA
Between 2011, the first Bid Window and 2014/5, the fourth Bid Window the
price per kWh of wind power dropped from R1.363 to R0.619; solar PV from
R3.288 to R0.786 and concentrating solar from R3.017 to R1.640 (BW3). New
wind and solar costs per unit of power generated are well below new build
coal power, estimated at R1.00 per kWh.

Eskom and South Africa are currently committed to the construction of two
large new coal power plants Medupi, with six generating units with a
capacity of 800MW each (total 4800MW) and Kusile, also with six generating
units with a capacity of 800MW each. The construction of both plants has
suffered numerous delays and cost over-runs, with completion now
expected by 2021. Originally Medupi was to be completed by 2013. This
commitment to coal based power means that South Africa will continue to
emit greenhouse gases from these plants (and other existing plants) for the
next 50 to 60 years.

75
LECTURE 4: OPTIONS FOR ENERGY SUPPLY IN
SOUTH AFRICA
The Department of Energy (DoE) is in the process of revising its Integrated
Resource Plan 2010 (IRP, 2010), and gazetted a Draft Integrated Energy
Planning Report in July 2013, for comment. The underlying assumptions and
modelling used by the DoE are debatable. For example, this report envisages
a more than doubling of Total Energy Demand by 2050, with a doubling of
liquid fuels demand, requiring a doubling of oil refining capacity, with
consequent doubling of liquid fuel emissions (BP, 2015). These demand
growth projections are based on questionable assumptions and have not
been realized over the past five years.

The DoEs assessment of South Africas energy future either constrains the
potential of renewable sources such as wind and solar unnecessarily or
ignores these altogether. For example, under the coal tab on its website is
says About 77 percent of South Africa's primary energy needs are provided
by coal. This is unlikely to change significantly in the next two decades owing
to the relative lack of suitable alternatives to coal as an energy source.

76
LECTURE 4: OPTIONS FOR ENERGY SUPPLY IN
SOUTH AFRICA
Independent Power Producers (IPPs)

Independent Power Producers are essentially private companies that

produce electricity to feed into the national Eskom owned grid at a
fixed tariff.

The IPP program includes provision for renewables (the REIPPP), coal,
gas, co-generation and small hydro.

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LECTURE 4: OPTIONS FOR ENERGY SUPPLY IN
SOUTH AFRICA
b. Alternative energy sources, current (solar, wind, hydro, fuelwood,
biomass, etc.), and future (tidal, ocean thermal, wave, etc.)

A first step to envisaging a low carbon energy future is to examine

the renewable energy resources available based on current and
developing technologies for exploiting these resources.

South Africa has abundant wind and solar energy resources, with
large regions having annual irradiance levels greater than 2000
kW/m2, (see Figure 3). The regions with the highest solar irradiance,
the Northern Cape and North West, are relatively under-developed.
Establishing solar energy plants in these areas will not only utilize this
resource but will stimulate economic activity in those areas. A
disadvantage of remote solar plants is that additional investment is
required to expand the grid into these relatively remote areas.
78
 79
Figure 3: Annual solar irradiation map: South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland
LECTURE 4: OPTIONS FOR ENERGY SUPPLY IN
SOUTH AFRICA

South Africa also has excellent wind resources, with large accessible areas
having annual average wind speeds at 100m (the approximate height of a
modern wind turbine hub) greater than 5m/s, (see Figure 4).

80
 Figure 4: Numerical Wind Map, coastal regions, South Africa
(Source: Stimulated climatological (30-year) annual mean wind speed [m/s] 100 m
81
above ground level (CSIR))
LECTURE 4: OPTIONS FOR ENERGY SUPPLY IN
SOUTH AFRICA
The DoEs announcement of the Bid Window 4 allocation (DoE,
2015), and the promise to expand the procurement of renewables is
encouraging but appears to be more a response to Eskoms current
and ongoing problem of its under-performing coal power stations,
and the repeated delays in the completion of the Medupi and Kusile
power stations, rather than a strategic change in outlook.

The distribution of South Africas renewable energy projects is shown

in Figure 5.

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Figure 5: Renewable Energy Project Sites, South Africa, April 2015 83
LECTURE 4: OPTIONS FOR ENERGY SUPPLY IN
SOUTH AFRICA
Small hydro power

The potential for small hydro power appears to be limited, perhaps about
250 MW in total (Energize, 2014), but its development and support has thus
far been inadequate (Klunne, 2013).

Biomass

The potential use of biomass to generate electricity is considerable: sugar

cane residues: 5584 GWh/year, forestry residues: 2723 GWh/y, saw mill
residues: 2123 GWh/y , pulp and paper residues: 2 542 GWh/y , total 12972
GWh/y (50.86 TWh/y) (DoE, undated). This potential if fully realized is
equivalent to 6% of Eskoms current (2013/2014) annual output of 217 903
GWh.

Some of these biomass applications are already in place.

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LECTURE 4: OPTIONS FOR ENERGY SUPPLY IN
SOUTH AFRICA
Emerging technologies

Tidal: A tidal generator converts the energy of tidal flows into electricity.
Greater tidal variation and higher tidal current velocities can dramatically
increase the potential of a site for tidal electricity generation. The first
commercial scale plant is under construction but this technology is still in its
infancy.

Wave: Wave power attempts to convert the energy of ocean wave action to
power. Several pilot scale plants exist or are in development but this
technology is still in its infancy.

Ocean thermal: Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) uses the

temperature difference between cooler deep and warmer shallow or surface
seawaters to run a heat engine and produce useful work, usually in the form
of electricity. A few small plants have been built but this technology may be
limited (by comparison with wind or solar) and it is still in its infancy.

85
ASSESSMENT

Assignment Question: Module 5: Energy Resources and Impacts

In 2000 3000 words, explore the current and future trends of South
Africas energy supply and provide recommendations for sustainable
energy sources.

86