Application of Bayesian Model Averaging and Geostatistical Output Perturbation to Calibrate Weather Forecast

Muhammad Luthfi1,a, Sutikno1,b & Purhadi1,c

1Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Science, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember Surabaya, Indonesia
a,
Corresponding author: luthfi15@mhs.statistika.its.ac.id
b
sutikno@statistika.its.ac.id
c
purhadi@statistika.its.ac.id

ABSTRACT

Weather forecast has necessarily been improved to provide the communities an accurate and objective prediction as well. To
overcome such issue, numerical-based weather forecast was extensively developed to reduce the subjectivity of forecast. The NWPs
output are unfortunately issued without taking dynamical weather behavior and local terrain features into account. Thus, Numerical
Weather Predictions (NWPs) are not able to accurately forecast the weather quantities, particularly for medium and long-term
forecast. The aim of this research is to aid and extend the development of ensemble forecast for Meteorology, Climatology, and
Geophysics Agency of Indonesia. Ensemble method is an approach combining various deterministic forecast to produce more
reliable one. However, such method are biased and uncalibrated due to its underdispersive or overdispersive nature. As one of
parametric methods, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) generate the calibrated ensemble forecast and construct posterior PDF for
specified period. Such method is able to utilize ensemble of any size, but does not take spatial correlation into account. Whereas
space dependencies involve the site of interest and nearby site, influenced by dynamic weather behavior. Meanwhile, Geostatistical
Output Perturbation (GOP) reckon the spatial correlation to generate future weather quantities, though merely built by a single
deterministic forecast, and is able to generate an ensemble of any size as well. This research conduct both BMA and GOP to generate
the calibrated ensemble forecast for temperature within meteorological sites around Jakarta.

Keywords: Bayesian Model Averaging; Ensemble; Geostatistical Output Perturbation; Numerical Weather Prediction; Underdispersive.

Instruction: Presentation Scope (Please bold/underline ONE only) :

Pure Mathematics
Applied Mathematics
Computational Mathematics
Statistics & Applied Statistics
Operational Research
Mathematics Education
Engineering & Industrial Applications