Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
AO 2016
Enero Febrero Marzo Abril Mayo Junio
17 13 38 34 50 29
17 13 38 34 50 29
AO 2015
Julio Agosto Septiembre Octubre Noviembre Diciembre Ventas anuales
23 20 20 39 47 78 391
23 20 20 39 47 78 391
AO 2016
Julio Agosto Septiembre Octubre Noviembre Diciembre Ventas anuales
25 21 21 38 50 84 420
25 21 21 38 50 84 420
RESUMEN DE PRONS
Meses
1 2 3 4 5
AO 6 16.8 12.6 37.8 33.6 50.4
Pronstico Lineal 18 14 41 36 29
Pronstico Exponencial 19 14 41 37 60
Pronstico Cuadrtico 18 14 41 36 29
Pronstico Normalizado 18 13 39 35 52
Pronstico Simulado 17 12 37 31 44
Pronstico ST. Promedio Mvil 1 4 19 11 19
Pronstico ST. SExp. Simple 17 13 38 34 49
Pronstico ST. SExp. Doble 18 14 39 35 52
Pronstico Box & Jenkin 61 60 63 63
winters 19 14 41 37 52
450
400
350
300
Cantidades
250
200
150
100
50
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Periodos (meses)
RESUMEN DE PRONSTICOS CALCULADOS
Meses
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Desv. Promedio
29.4 21 21 37.8 50.4 84 420
32 23 23 37 54 90 450 66.4722222222
32 23 23 37 55 91 452 65.9444444444
32 23 17 37 54 90 450 66.6388888889
30 22 22 40 52 86 427 62.2777777778
28 19 21 38 50 74 399 57.4444444444
8 6 7 17 19 34 227 33.1666666667
29 21 21 39 50 83 413 60.25
30 22 22 39 52 85 424 61.7222222222
65 62 61 61 63 65 69 1.8181818182
32 23 23 43 54 90 448 65.3333333333
Li neal
exponenci al
Norma l i zado
Si mul a do
Promedi o movi l
Suavi zaci n Exp. Si mpl e
Suavi zaci on exp. Dobl e
Box & Jenki n
Wi nters
Agosto 2015 - Agosto 2016
Cua dratico
6 8 10 12 14
Periodos (meses)
Desv. Promedio Coef. De Correl
66.4722222222 0.9982004237
65.9444444444 0.9998586323
66.6388888889 0.9982112138
62.2777777778 0.9999946992
57.4444444444 0.9997567225
33.1666666667 0.9988279493
60.25 0.999987298
61.7222222222 0.9999964701
1.8181818182 0.8226777982
65.3333333333 0.9999670015
INFORMACIN GENERAL
Meses
Ao 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 16 12 35 31 43 27
2 17 13 38 34 50 29
a= -47.790909091 500
b= 17.7986013986 400
300
Coeficiente de correlacin
200
CC= 0.5685524768
100
0
0 2 4 6 8 10
-100
CORRELACIN PERIDICA
1 2 3 4 5 6
Valor a 14.448 10.836 32.508 28.896 5.796 25.284
Valor b 1.176 0.882 2.646 2.352 7.434 2.058
Pronstico 18 14 41 36 29 32
t= 3
500
450
400
350
300
Ao 6
250 Pronstico
200 Movi ng average (Pronstico)
150
100
50
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
n= 2 n=
a= 14.448 a=
b= 1.176 b=
DICIEMBRE (2016) EN
n= 2 n=
a= 28.896 a=
b= 2.352 b=
MARZO (2017) AB
n= 2 n=
a= 18.06 a=
b= 1.47 b=
JUNIO (2017) JU
n= 2 n=
a= 43.344 a=
b= 3.528 b=
MACIN GENERAL
Meses
7 8 9 10 11 12
20 20 39 47 78 391
21 21 38 50 84 420
n= 12
Valor Min 13
Rango 407
% Desviac. 3333.333%
Ao 6
Pronstico
6 8 10 12 14
ACIN PERIDICA
7 8 9 10 11 12
18.06 18.06 40.32 43.344 72.24 361.2
1.47 1.47 -1.26 3.528 5.88 29.4
23 23 37 54 90 450
Coeficiente de Correlacin
CC= 0.9982004237
mad= 63.9194444444
2 n= 2
10.836 a= 32.508
0.882 b= 2.646
2 n= 2
5.796 a= 25.284
7.434 b= 2.058
2 n= 2
18.06 a= 40.32
1.47 b= -1.26
2 n= 2
72.24 a= 361.2
5.88 b= 29.4
IEMBRE (2016)
t^2 t Y(t)
1 35.154
4 75.6
5 110.754
BRERO (2017)
t^2 t Y(t)
1 27.342
4 58.8
5 86.142
MAYO (2017)
t^2 t Y(t)
1 39.06
4 75.6
5 114.66
OSTO (2017)
t^2 t Y(t)
1 390.6
4 840
5 1230.6
INFORMACIN GENERAL
Meses
Ao 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 15.624 11.718 35.154 31.248 42.966 27.342
2 16.8 12.6 37.8 33.6 50.4 29.4
1 2 3 4 5 6
Valor a 14.53032 10.89774 32.69322 29.06064 36.628515 25.42806
Valor b 1.07526882 1.07526882 1.07526882 1.07526882 1.17302053 1.075268817
Pronstico 19 14 41 37 60 32
t= 3
500
450
400
350
300
Ao 6
250 Pronstico
Movi ng average (Pronstico)
200
150
100
50
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
SEPTIEMBRE (2016)
Pronstico
Periodos Y(t) t t^2 (t) t (t)
de Regresin
1 15.624 1 1 2.74880819 2.74880819 15.624
2 16.8 2 4 2.82137889 5.64275777 16.8
32.424 3 5 5.57018708 8.39156597
DICIEMBRE (2016)
Pronstico
Periodos Y(t) t t^2 (t) t (t) de Regresin
1 31.248 1 1 3.44195537 3.44195537 31.248
2 33.6 2 4 3.51452607 7.02905213 33.6
64.848 3 5 6.95648144 10.4710075
MARZO (2017)
Pronstico
Periodos Y(t) t t^2 (t) t (t) de Regresin
1 19.53 1 1 2.97195174 2.97195174 19.53
2 21 2 4 3.04452244 6.08904488 21
40.53 3 5 6.01647418 9.06099662
JUNIO (2017)
Pronstico de
Periodos Y(t) t t^2 (t) t (t) Regresin
1 46.872 1 1 3.84742048 3.84742048 46.872
2 50.4 2 4 3.91999118 7.83998235 50.4
97.272 3 5 7.76741166 11.6874028
Meses
7 8 9 10 11 12
19.53 19.53 39.06 46.872 78.12 390.6
21 21 37.8 50.4 84 420
7 8 9 10 11 12
18.1629 18.1629 40.362 43.59096 72.6516 363.258
1.07526882 1.075268817 0.96774194 1.07526882 1.07526882 1.07526882
23 23 37 55 91 452
Coeficiente de Correlacin
CC= 0.999858632
mad= 63.65555556
OCTUBRE (2016)
ENERO (2017)
ABRIL (2017)
Pronstico
Nuevo Periodos Y(t) t t^2 (t) t (t)
JULIO (2017)
FEBRERO (2017)
MAYO (2017)
Pronstico Pronstico
de Regresin Nuevo Periodos Y(t) t t^2 (t)
AGOSTO (2017)
Pronstico de Pronstico
Periodos Y(t) t t^2 (t)
Regresin Nuevo
78.12 78.12 1 390.6 1 1 5.96768402
84 84 6 420 2 4 6.04025471
810.6 3 5 12.0079387
Pronstico Pronstico
t (t) de Regresin Nuevo
3.55973841 35.154 35.154
7.26461821 37.8 37.8
10.8243566
Coeficiente de Correlacin
PR= 1
PN= 1
(2017)
Pronstico Pronstico
t (t) de Regresin Nuevo
3.30842398 27.342 27.342
6.76198935 29.4 29.4
10.0704133
Coeficiente de Correlacin
PR= 1
PN= 1
2017)
Pronstico Pronstico
t (t) de Regresin Nuevo
3.66509893 39.06 39.06
7.26461821 37.8 37.8
10.9297171
Coeficiente de Correlacin
PR= 1
PN= 1
(2017)
Pronstico de Pronstico
t (t) Regresin Nuevo
5.96768402 390.6 390.6
12.0805094 561.4582868 420
18.0481934
Coeficiente de Correlacin
PR= 1
PN= 1
INFORMACIN GENERAL
Meses
Ao 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 15.624 11.718 35.154 31.248 42.966 27.342
2 16.8 12.6 37.8 33.6 50.4 29.4
1 2 3 4 5 6
Valor a 14.448 10.836 32.508 28.896 5.796 25.284
Valor b 1.176 0.882 2.646 2.352 7.434 2.058
Valor c -5.6843E-12 -1.4211E-12 5.68434E-12 -1.1369E-11 -6.0909E-15 -8.52651E-12
Pronstico 18 14 41 36 29 32
t= 3
500
450
400
350
300
Ao 6
250 Pronstico
Movi ng avera ge (Pronstico)
200
150
100
50
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
SEPTIEMBRE (2016)
DICIEMBRE (2016)
1 31.248 1 1 1 1 31.248
2 33.6 2 4 8 16 67.2
64.848 3 5 9 17 98.448
= 3 a= 28.896 PR=
= -1 b= 2.352 PN=
= 2.352 c= -1.1369E-11
= 7.056
= 9.01 9
MARZO (2017)
1 19.53 1 1 1 1 19.53
2 21 2 4 8 16 42
40.53 3 5 9 17 61.53
= 3 a= 18.06 PR=
= -1 b= 1.47 PN=
= 1.47 c= 0
= 4.41
= 9.01
JUNIO (2017)
= 3 a= 43.344 PR=
= -1 b= 3.528 PN=
= 3.528 c= -5.6843E-12
= 10.584
= 9.01
MACIN GENERAL
Meses
7 8 9 10 11 12
19.53 19.53 39.06 46.872 78.12 390.6
21 21 37.8 50.4 84 420
7 8 9 10 11 12
18.06 12.18 40.32 43.344 72.24 361.2
1.47 1.47 -1.26 3.528 5.88 29.4
0 -3.55303E-15 -5.6843E-12 -5.6843E-12 0 9.09495E-11
23 17 37 54 90 450
Coeficiente de Correlacin
CC= 0.998211214
mad= 64.00277778
OCTUBRE (201
Pronstico de Pronstico
t^2 Y(t) Periodos Y(t) t t^2
Regresin Nuevo
15.624 15.624 15.624 1 11.718 1 1
67.2 16.8 16.8 2 12.6 2 4
82.824 24.318 3 5
ENERO (2017
Pronstico de Pronstico
t^2 Y(t) Periodos Y(t) t t^2
Regresin Nuevo
31.248 31.248 31.248 1 42.966 5 25
134.4 33.6 33.6 2 50.4 6 36
165.648 93.366 11 61
1 = 11 a=
1 = -1 b=
= 7.434 c=
= 81.774
= 9.01
ABRIL (2017
Pronstico de Pronstico
t^2 Y(t) Periodos Y(t) t t^2
Regresin Nuevo
19.53 19.53 19.53 1 19.53 5 25
84 21 21 2 21 6 36
103.53 40.53 11 61
1 = 11 a=
1 = -1 b=
= 1.47 c=
= 16.17
= 9.01
JULIO (2017
Pronstico de Pronstico
t^2 Y(t) Periodos Y(t) t t^2
Regresin Nuevo
46.872 46.872 46.872 1 78.12 1 1
201.6 50.4 50.4 2 84 2 4
248.472 162.12 3 5
1 = 3 a=
1 = -1 b=
= 5.88 c=
= 17.64
= 9.01
OCTUBRE (2016)
Pronstico de Pronstico
t^3 t^4 t Y(t) t^2 Y(t) Periodos
Regresin Nuevo
1 1 11.718 11.718 11.718 11.718 1
8 16 25.2 50.4 12.6 12.6 2
9 17 36.918 62.118
ENERO (2017)
Pronstico de Pronstico
t^3 t^4 t Y(t) t^2 Y(t) Periodos
Regresin Nuevo
125 625 214.83 1074.15 13.23 42.966 1
216 1296 302.4 1814.4 20.664 50.4 2
341 1921 517.23 2888.55
5.796 PR= 1 =
7.434 PN= 1 =
-6.0909E-15 =
=
=
ABRIL (2017)
Pronstico de Pronstico
t^3 t^4 t Y(t) t^2 Y(t) Periodos
Regresin Nuevo
125 625 97.65 488.25 13.65 19.53 1
216 1296 126 756 15.12 21 2
341 1921 223.65 1244.25
12.18 PR= 1 =
1.47 PN= 1 =
-3.553E-15 =
=
=
JULIO (2017)
Pronstico de Pronstico
t^3 t^4 t Y(t) t^2 Y(t) Periodos
Regresin Nuevo
1 1 78.12 78.12 78.12 78.12 1
8 16 168 336 84 84 2
9 17 246.12 414.12
72.24 PR= 1 =
5.88 PN= 1 =
0 =
=
=
NOVIEMBRE (2016)
Pronstico de
Y(t) t t^2 t^3 t^4 t Y(t) t^2 Y(t) Regresin
35.154 1 1 1 1 35.154 35.154 35.154
37.8 2 4 8 16 75.6 151.2 37.8
72.954 3 5 9 17 110.754 186.354
FEBRERO (2017)
Pronstico de
Y(t) t t^2 t^3 t^4 t Y(t) t^2 Y(t) Regresin
27.342 1 1 1 1 27.342 27.342 27.342
29.4 2 4 8 16 58.8 117.6 29.4
56.742 3 5 9 17 86.142 144.942
3 a= 25.284 PR= 1
-1 b= 2.058 PN= 1
2.058 c= -8.5265E-12
6.174
9.01
MAYO (2017)
Pronstico de
Y(t) t t^2 t^3 t^4 t Y(t) t^2 Y(t) Regresin
39.06 1 1 1 1 39.06 39.06 39.06
37.8 2 4 8 16 75.6 151.2 37.8
76.86 3 5 9 17 114.66 190.26
3 a= 40.32 PR= 1
-1 b= -1.26 PN= 1
-1.26 c= -5.6843E-12
-3.78
9.01
AGOSTO (2017)
Pronstico de
Y(t) t t^2 t^3 t^4 t Y(t) t^2 Y(t) Regresin
390.6 1 1 1 1 390.6 390.6 390.6
420 2 4 8 16 840 1680 420
810.6 3 5 9 17 1230.6 2070.6
3 a= 361.2 PR= 1
-1 b= 29.4 PN= 1
29.4 c= 9.09495E-11
88.2
9.01
Pronstico
Nuevo
35.154
37.8
Pronstico
Nuevo
27.342
29.4
Pronstico
Nuevo
39.06
37.8
Pronstico
Nuevo
390.6
420
INFORMACIN GENERAL
Meses
Ao 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 15.624 11.718 35.154 31.248 42.966 27.342
2 16.8 12.6 37.8 33.6 50.4 29.4
n= 24 m= 5
25 Intervalo
20 11.718
15
94.718
10
177.718
FRECUENCIAS
5
0 260.718
176.718
259.718
93.718
342.718
425.718
343.718
11.71894.718177.718
260.718 343.718
Interva los
Total
MACIN GENERAL
Meses
7 8 9 10 11 12
19.53 19.53 39.06 46.872 78.12 390.6
21 21 37.8 50.4 84 420
Valores Rango
Mximo Mnimo R= 82
420 11.718
DE FRECUENCIAS OBSERVADAS
Intervalo Frecuencia
93.718 22 Media E(X)= 65.5235
176.718 11 Varianza VAR(X)= 11304.9718
259.718 #VALUE! Desviacin= 106.324841
342.718 #VALUE! Grados de libertad 4
425.718 #VALUE! Valor Medio
Total 33
INFORMACIN GENERAL
Meses
Ao 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 15.624 11.718 35.154 31.248 42.966 27.342
2 16.8 12.6 37.8 33.6 50.4 29.4
n= 24 m= 5
CHI CUADRADO
Frecuencia
Intervalo (Fo)
11.718 93.718 22 Media E(X)= 65.5235
94.718 176.718 11 Varianza VAR(X)= 11304.97179
177.718 259.718 #VALUE! Desviacin= 106.32484089
260.718 342.718 #VALUE!
343.718 425.718 #VALUE! Valor Medio
Total 33
2. Parmetros de Distribucin
()=1/()
* Funcin de densidad de probabilidad
408.282
f(x)= 0 0.002449288
F(X)=_^()
F(X)=_^()
* Funcin de destribucin acumulativa
F(X)=()()
3. Tabla de clculos
Frecuencia Esperada
Intervalo F(X) C=((Fe-Fo)^2)/Fe
Fei=n*F(X)
11.718 93.718 0.20084158 4.8201978045 61.2310148776
94.718 176.718 0.20084158 4.8201978045 7.9229020728
177.718 259.718 0.20084158 4.8201978045 #VALUE!
260.718 342.718 0.20084158 4.8201978045 #VALUE!
343.718 425.718 0.20084158 4.8201978045 #VALUE!
0 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
0 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
0 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
0 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
Estadstico 83.6145103638
= 65.5235
= 106.324841
2. Parmetros de Distribucin
()=1/(2) ^((()^2)/
*Funcin de densidad (2^2 )) =
()=/
*Probabilidad de frecuencia observada
*Nivel de significacin
= 5%
C=((Fe-
Intervalo f(FO) f(x) F(x) Fe=n*f(x) f(FO))^2) /Fe
11.718 93.718 0.9167 0.0036 0.2970 0.0869 7.9187
94.718 176.718 0.4583 0.0022 0.1781 0.0521 3.1661
177.718 259.718 #VALUE! 0.0007 0.0580 0.0170 #VALUE!
260.718 342.718 #VALUE! 0.0001 0.0103 0.0030 #VALUE!
343.718 425.718 #VALUE! 0.0000 0.0010 0.0003 #VALUE!
0 0 0.0000 0.0031 0.0000 0.0745 0.0745
0 0 0.0000 0.0031 0.0000 0.0745 0.0745
0 0 0.0000 0.0031 0.0000 0.0745 0.0745
0 0 0.0000 0.0031 0.0000 0.0745 0.0745
Estadstico 11.4029
media = 3.53735908
desviacon = 1.13582549
2. Parmetros de Distribucin
=ln(())1/2 ln(1+(())/
(())^2 )
*Media de la distribucin lognormal
^2=ln(1+(())/(())^2 )
*Varianza de la distribucin lognormal
(;,)=^(()^2/(2^2 ))/
(2)
*Funcin de densidad de probabilidad
*Nivel de significacin
= 5%
Estadstico 23.5800055883
ACIN GENERAL
Meses
7 8 9 10 11 12
19.53 19.53 39.06 46.872 78.12 390.6
21 21 37.8 50.4 84 420
O GENERAL DE INFORMACIN
Valores Rango
Mximo Mnimo R= 82
420 11.718
CUADRADO
Se rechaza
83.61451036 > 15.51
)
NO Se rechaza
11.40293084 < 15.51
())/
())^2 )
=
)^2/(2^2 ))/
C=((Fe-f(FO))^2)/Fe
12.0232389913
11.5452444135
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#DIV/0! Se rechaza
#DIV/0! 23.5800056 > 15.51
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
23.5800055883
como las dos ultmas no se rechazan, se debe hacer otra prueba de ajuste para las mismas
para las mismas
INFORMACIN GENERAL
Meses
Ao 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 15.624 11.718 35.154 31.248 42.966 27.342
2 16.8 12.6 37.8 33.6 50.4 29.4
n= 24 m= 5
KOLMOGOROV SMIRNOV
Intervalo Frecuencia
11.718 93.718 22 Media E(X)= 65.5235
94.718 176.718 0 Varianza VAR(X)= 11304.97179
177.718 259.718 0 Desviacin= 106.3248409
260.718 342.718 0
343.718 425.718 2 Valor Medio
0
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
Total #N/A
2. Parmetros de Distribucin
()=1/()
* Funcin de densidad de probabilidad
*Nivel de significacin
= 5%
24 KOLMOGOROV SMIRNOV
*Puntos porcentuales D 0.1603
0.05
3. Tabla de clculos
Estadistico DM #N/A
= 65.5235
= 106.324841
deviacion poblacional
2. Parmetros de Distribucin
()=1/(2) ^((()^2)/
*Funcin de densidad (2^2 )) =
=/
*Probabilidad de frecuencia observada
*Nivel de significacin
= 5%
24 KOLMOGOROV SMIRNOV
*Puntos porcentuales D 0.1603
0.05 desviacion poblacional
()=()/ =
3. Tabla de clculos
Estadstico: DM #N/A
= 3.53735908
= 1.13582549
2. Parmetros de Distribucin
=ln(())1/2 ln(1+(())/
(())^2 )
*Media de la distribucin lognormal
^2=ln(1+(())/(())^2 )
*Varianza de la distribucin lognormal
(;,)=^(()^2/(2^2 ))/
(2)
*Funcin de densidad de probabilidad
*Nivel de significacin
= 5%
24 KOLMOGOROV SMIRNOV
*Puntos porcentuales D 0.1603
0.05
3. Tabla de clculos
Estadstico #DIV/0!
ACIN GENERAL
Meses
7 8 9 10 11 12
19.53 19.53 39.06 46.872 78.12 390.6
21 21 37.8 50.4 84 420
O GENERAL DE INFORMACIN
Valores Rango
Mximo Mnimo R= 82
420 11.718
OROV SMIRNOV
#N/A
#N/A #N/A 0.1603
cion poblacional
= ()
DM=I PEA-POA I
0.3121046802
0.0644933977
0.0494403068
0.0787670727 #N/A
0.0003524327 #N/A #N/A 0.1603
0.7311377681
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
(())/
(())^2 )
)^2/(2^2 ))/
DM=IPEA- POAI
0.6788227455
0.7923765946
0.8446769276
0.8714243945
0.9698180707
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.1603
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
INFORMACIN GENERAL
Meses
Ao 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 15.624 11.718 35.154 31.248 42.966 27.342
2 16.8 12.6 37.8 33.6 50.4 29.4
Chi Cuadrado
Uniforme Se rechaza
Distrib. propuestas Normal No se rechaza
Lognormal Se rechaza
=(_(=1)^12
PRONSTICO SIMULADO
1 2 3 4 5
= 16.212 12.159 36.477 32.424 46.683
= 0.83155757 0.62366818 1.87100454 1.66311515 5.25663181
Pronstico Simulado 17 12 37 31 44
Pronstico Normalizado 18 13 39 35 52
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
RESUMEN DE PRONSTICOS CALCULADOS
Meses
1 2 3 4 5
Pronstico Lineal 18 14 41 36 29
Pronstico Exponencial 19 14 41 37 60
Pronstico Cuadrtico 18 14 41 36 29
Pronstico Normalizado 18 13 39 35 52
Pronstico Simulado 17 12 37 31 44
MACIN GENERAL
Meses
7 8 9 10 11 12
19.53 19.53 39.06 46.872 78.12 390.6
21 21 37.8 50.4 84 420
N DEL PRONSTICO
NFORMACIN GENERAL
Kolmogorov
#N/A
#N/A Distrib. Seleccionada
#DIV/0!
=(_(=1)^12_ 6 )+
=+
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
28.371 20.265 20.265 38.43 48.636 81.06 405.3
1.45522576 1.03944697 1.03944697 0.89095454 2.49467272 4.15778787 20.7889394
28 19 21 38 50 74 399
30 22 22 40 52 86 427
8 10 12 14
Meses
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Desv. Promedio
32 23 23 37 54 90 450 66.4722222222
32 23 23 37 55 91 452 65.9444444444
32 23 17 37 54 90 450 66.6388888889
30 22 22 40 52 86 427 62.2777777778
28 19 21 38 50 74 399 57.4444444444
NMEROS ALEATO
1 2 3 4 5
0.30568523 0.56095159 0.54151261 0.47057985 0.16006756
0.75802135 0.27291228 0.84245718 0.97801679 0.6364971
0.19099099 0.31359787 0.22113547 0.65705713 0.80522333
0.68477621 0.53333838 0.22442067 0.29833705 0.11699714
0.49232823 0.30256845 0.53404853 0.55070919 0.06783151
0.12119481 0.88477661 0.1457752 0.3136749 0.36657194
0.36821842 0.91801187 0.8259416 0.35049264 0.98836719
0.59665961 0.11032829 0.83259115 0.16613812 0.57054866
0.59887019 0.0810192 0.92482165 0.04019949 0.70062305
0.94910119 0.11004117 0.32574788 0.7054962 0.55918343
0.69820822 0.75499694 0.29212159 0.15456703 0.04069795
0.16367073 0.20727974 0.19570913 0.11028683 0.4535071
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0.44741306 0.10091217 0.70682769 0.32004256 0.61848926 0.05786377 0.01057699
0.18599192 0.34411132 0.83014068 0.34319382 0.81468174 0.38865179 0.83844898
0.92408094 0.92113644 0.73415903 0.54276011 0.52235014 0.58387213 0.67696509
0.16827445 0.1761089 0.34299525 0.5892659 0.24543416 0.18634965 0.66205682
0.01186576 0.07319942 0.65627273 0.10867089 0.46270575 0.59092797 0.04188967
0.28383334 0.68073504 0.10720495 0.62824921 0.85986508 0.05273913 0.00621021
0.42933761 0.70519584 0.71362579 0.85142481 0.71590802 0.71686718 0.88784492
0.39121476 0.03767522 0.80009602 0.17592264 0.12936218 0.19352173 0.67154591
0.29465871 0.12937748 0.89024383 0.17251697 0.79271829 0.80120825 0.44228341
0.45677412 0.11533391 0.38037213 0.92182043 0.03513526 0.34620255 0.50475141
0.73195253 0.4912052 0.00933038 0.00912071 0.45203467 0.07741634 0.47188024
0.83779002 0.57888547 0.44369077 0.77793177 0.85156319 0.10455688 0.48062397
Meses
Ao 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 15.624 11.718 35.154 31.248 42.966 27.342
2 16.8 12.6 37.8 33.6 50.4 29.4
INDICE N
Meses
Ao 1 2 3 4 5
ndice IT 1 0 0.857142857 1.5 0.941176471 1.15789474
ndice IT 2 0.07692308 0.857142857 1.5 0.941176471 1.2
Total 0.07692308 1.714285714 3 1.882352941 2.35789474
ndice de temporada ITt 0.01538462 0.285714286 0.5 0.31372549 0.39298246
Promedio Mvil M6 16.212 12.159 36.477 32.424 46.683
Pronstico 1 4 19 11 19
400
CC= 0.998827949
350
Desv. Absoluta Promedio 300
250
mad= 48.7125
200
150
100
50
0
0 2 4 6 8 10
CIN GENERAL
Meses
7 8 9 10 11 12
19.53 19.53 39.06 46.872 78.12 390.6
21 21 37.8 50.4 84 420
O: PROMEDIO MVIL
INDICE N =2
Meses
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0.7777778 0.83333333 1 1.33333333 1.09090909 1.25 1.68634064
0.7368421 0.83333333 1 1.28571429 1.14285714 1.25 1.66666667
1.5146199 1.66666667 2 2.61904762 2.23376623 2.5 3.35300731
0.2524366 0.27777778 0.333333333 0.43650794 0.37229437 0.41666667 0.55883455
28.371 20.265 20.265 38.43 48.636 81.06 405.3
8 6 7 17 19 34 227
Promedi o Mvi l M6
Pronstico
6 8 10 12 14
Chart Title
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
INFORMACIN GENERAL
Meses
Ao 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 15.624 11.718 35.154 31.248 42.966 27.342
2 16.8 12.6 37.8 33.6 50.4 29.4
M
Parmetros y pronsticos 1 2 3 4 5
Pronstico ao 7 17 13 38 34 49
450
Coeficiente de Correlacin
400
CC= 0.9999873
350
300
Desv. Absoluta Promedio
250
mad= 60.8083333 200
150
100
50
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Meses
7 8 9 10 11 12
19.53 19.53 39.06 46.872 78.12 390.6
21 21 37.8 50.4 84 420
pronostico:
dt: informacion historica del periodo t
: poderacion dada a la observacion mas reciente
Mes St Ajustado
1 316
indice de suavizacion
St 1: Promedio de demanda en el periodo 0.1
Meses
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
29 21 21 39 50 83 413
Ao 6
Pronstico
Moving average (Pronstico)
8 10 12 14
onces (0,6<=<=09)
807
INFORMACIN GENERAL
Meses
Ao 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 15.624 11.718 35.154 31.248 42.966 27.342
2 16.8 12.6 37.8 33.6 50.4 29.4
= 0.7 St 1-->
= 0.7
0
0 2 4
500
= 0.7
= 0.7
Meses
Parmetros y pronsticos 1 2 3 4 5
Pronstico ao 7 18 14 39 35 52
450
Coeficiente de Correlacin
400
350
CC= 0.99999647
300
200
mad= 61.54444444 150
100
50
0
0 2 4 6 8 10
Ao 1 Demanda Dt St Bt Ao 1 Demanda Dt
1 15.624 16.212 0.39608333 1 11.718
2 16.8 16.742425 0.4901225 2 12.6
Pronstico 7 18 Pronstico 7
Ao 1 Demanda Dt St Bt Ao 1 Demanda Dt
1 31.248 32.424 0.39608333 1 42.966
2 33.6 33.366025 0.7782425 2 50.4
Pronstico 7 35 Pronstico 7
Ao 1 Demanda Dt St Bt Ao 1 Demanda Dt
1 19.53 20.265 0.39608333 1 19.53
2 21 20.898325 0.5621525 2 21
Pronstico 7 22 Pronstico 7
JUNIO (2017) JULIO (2017)
Ao 1 Demanda Dt St Bt Ao 1 Demanda Dt
1 46.872 48.636 0.39608333 1 78.12
2 50.4 49.989625 1.0663625 2 84
Pronstico 7 52 Pronstico 7
ACIN GENERAL
Meses INVESTIGAR
7 8 9 10 11 12
19.53 19.53 39.06 46.872 78.12 390.6
21 21 37.8 50.4 84 420
*Promedio ao 5: 63.147
*Promedio ao 6: 67.9 Bt-1 K: numero de periodo a prono
afa y beta deben tener valores
0.39608333
PRONOSTICOS
Mes (k) F(t+k) F(t+k) Ft+k = St
1 505.28466
2 686.25148
3 867.218299
4 1048.18512
5 1229.15194
6 1410.11876 Coeficiente de Correlacin
7 1591.08558
8 1772.0524 CC= 0.5700924021
9 1953.01922
10 2133.98604 Desv. Absoluta Promedio
11 2314.95286
12 2495.91968 mad= 747.76492012
000
500
000
500 Inf. Ao 6
Pronstico
000
500
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
500
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Meses
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
30 22 22 39 52 85 424
6 8 10 12 14
St Bt Ao 1 Demanda Dt St Bt
12.159 0.39608333 1 35.154 36.477 0.39608333
12.586525 0.4180925 2 37.8 37.521925 0.8502725
14 Pronstico 7 39
St Bt Ao 1 Demanda Dt St Bt
46.683 0.39608333 1 27.342 28.371 0.39608333
49.403725 2.0233325 2 29.4 29.210125 0.7062125
52 Pronstico 7 30
St Bt Ao 1 Demanda Dt St Bt
20.265 0.39608333 1 39.06 38.43 0.39608333
20.898325 0.5621525 2 37.8 38.107825 -0.1066975
22 Pronstico 7 39
JULIO (2017) AGOSTO (2017)
St Bt Ao 1 Demanda Dt St Bt
81.06 0.39608333 1 390.6 405.3 0.39608333
83.236825 1.6426025 2 420 415.708825 7.4050025
85 Pronstico 7 424
K: numero de periodo a pronosticas
afa y beta deben tener valores iguales.
MTODOS AVANZADOS DE PRONSTICO: BOX & JENKIN
Porcentaje de intervalo de confianza= 0.05 una tendencia.
Periodo Demanda
1 17
2 12.6
3 37.8
4 33.6 para horizontes e planeacion de corto plazo
5 50.4
6 29.4
7 21
8 21
9 37.8
10 50.4
11 84
12 420
Total 814.8
Promedio 68
Anlisis de Dispersin
N= 12
PRONSTICOS
450
400
350
300
250
Datos Hi stri cos
200 Pronstico
150
100
50
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
RONSTICO: BOX & JENKIN
400
350
o plazo
300
200
150
100
50
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
ente de asimetra
os por encima de la media"
os por debajo de la media"
Coeficiente de Correlacin
CC= 0.822677798
mad= 33.60743802
Dema nda
MTODOS AVANZADOS DE PRONSTICO: WINTERS
CICLO1 CICLO2
Periodo Demanda 1 Periodo Demanda 2 Tendencia de los ci
1 15.624 13 16.8 450
2 11.718 14 12.6 400
3 35.154 15 37.8 350
4 31.248 16 33.6
300
5 42.966 17 50.4
250
6 27.342 18 29.4
7 19.53 19 21 200
8 19.53 20 21 150
9 39.06 21 37.8 100
10 46.872 22 50.4
50
11 78.12 23 84
12 390.6 24 420 0
0 5 10 15
Total 757.764 Total 814.8
Promedio 63.147 Promedio 67.9
Anlisis de Dispersin
ciclo 1 Promedio 63.147 se presentan variaciones que muestren comportami
Ambos ciclos Coeficiente de asimetra 3.06592934 se debe trabajar dos aos de referencia, cada uno co
Ambos ciclos Desviacin Estndar 106.324841
ciclo 1 Varianza 10953.9459
Intervalo de Confianza 60.1578366
N= 12
PRONSTICOS
500
450
350
CC=
300
100
50
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
DE PRONSTICO: WINTERS
Demanda Ao 5
Demans a Ao 6
10 15 20 25 30
que muestren comportamientos de estacionalidad.
de referencia, cada uno con 12 periodos.
FRMULA
Promedios
Pronstico
Pendiente a1
19
14
determinacion del valos de nivelacion
41
37
determicacion
52
32
factor de estacionalidad
23
23
Pronstico
Pronstico
43
54
90
448
876
73
oeficiente de Correlacin
0.999967002
63.35