Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Victor Anthony
646-502-2452
VAnthony@aegiscap.com
2017E
Revenues $164,969 $168,239 ($3,270) -2.0%
EBITDA $18,997 $18,349 $648 3.4%
Pro-Forma Oper Income (CSOI) $9,003 $9,099 ($96) -1.1%
Non-GAAP EPS $11.28 $11.41 ($0.13) -1.2%
GAAP EPS $6.33 $7.30 ($0.97) -15.3%
2018E
Revenues $199,029 $203,671 ($4,642) -2.3%
EBITDA $24,695 $24,072 $623 2.5%
Pro-Forma Oper Income (CSOI) $13,447 $13,662 ($215) -1.6%
Non-GAAP EPS $15.10 $15.23 ($0.13) -0.9%
GAAP EPS $8.95 $10.62 ($1.68) -18.7%
Source: Aegis Capital; Company Reports
Valuation
We value Amazon using a sum-of-the-parts analysis, in which we apply a 1.5x multiple to our 2018 retail revenue estimate
and a 12x multiple to our 2018 AWS EBITDA estimate. After adjusting for cash & equivalents and debt, we arrive at a per
share value of $953 for year-end 2017%.
Exhibit 2: Sum-of-The-Parts Valuation
2018 2018 % of per
Revenue EBITDA Multiple Enterprise Value Total EV Share
Amazon is currently trading above its historical price-to-sales valuation and similarly above its average relative price-to-sales
to the S&P 500, but off its peak.
2.9x 1.95x
2.0x
1.8x
2.4x
1.6x
1.4x 1.28x
1.9x
1.2x
1.4x 1.0x
0.8x 0.91x
0.9x
0.6x
0.4x 0.4x
10/1/2011
10/1/2012
10/1/2013
10/1/2014
10/1/2015
10/1/2016
10/1/2011
10/1/2012
10/1/2013
10/1/2014
10/1/2015
10/1/2016
1/1/2011
4/1/2011
7/1/2011
1/1/2012
4/1/2012
7/1/2012
1/1/2013
4/1/2013
7/1/2013
1/1/2014
4/1/2014
7/1/2014
1/1/2015
4/1/2015
7/1/2015
1/1/2016
4/1/2016
7/1/2016
1/1/2011
4/1/2011
7/1/2011
1/1/2012
4/1/2012
7/1/2012
1/1/2013
4/1/2013
7/1/2013
1/1/2014
4/1/2014
7/1/2014
1/1/2015
4/1/2015
7/1/2015
1/1/2016
4/1/2016
7/1/2016
Interestingly, and for both illustrative and comparison purposes, Amazons current market capitalization is only 8% of its
market opportunity (global retail sales and our rough estimate for AWSs market opportunity), compared to 63% for
Facebook and 93% for Alphabet. For this comparison, we rely on the $600B global advertising market for Facebook and
Alphabet, and ignore Facebooks under-monetized opportunities outside of advertising (Messenger, WhatsApp, Oculus, e-
commerce) and Alphabets optimality on Other Bets.
100% 93%
90%
80%
70%
63%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
8%
10%
0%
Amazon Facebook Alphabet
Supplemental Charts
Exhibit 4. Amazon: Core Retail & AWS Pro-forma Operating Margins (CSOI)
35.0%
30.3% 30.2% 30.7%
30.0%
25.0% 23.7%
20.0%
14.2%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0% 3.4%
2.7% 2.6% 2.5%
1.4%
0.0%
2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E
6.0% 5.7%
5.5%
5.1%
5.0%
4.2%
4.0%
3.3%
2.7% 2.7%
3.0%
2.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E
Free Cash Continues To Build. Along with margin expansion, we expect free cash flow per-share to continue to increase at a
measured pace. We estimate that capital expenditures will range between 4.5% and 5.0% over the next two years leading
free cash flow per share to grow at an 17% CAGR from $20.06 per share in 2016 to $28.91 per-share in 2018.
$35.15
$30.15 $28.91
$25.12
$25.15
$20.06
$23.56
$20.15
$15.44
$17.13
$15.15
$10.15 $11.78
$10.00
$5.50
$4.55 $4.41 $4.18
$5.15
$0.86
$1.14
$0.15
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E
Company Description
Amazon.com is one of the largest e-commerce companies in the world. The company was incorporated in 1994, went live in
July 1995, and become a public company in 1997. Amazon operates principally via three business models: core retail sales
from Amazon.com, third-party seller programs, and Amazon Web Services (AWS). Amazon also owns the Kindle device
manufacturing business and Amazon Prime Video. Amazon has physical operations in the U.S., Canada, the U.K, Germany,
France, Japan, China, Italy, Spain, and India.
Investment Thesis
An investment in Amazon today is a bet that: a) Amazon will continue to take share of retail sales, Prime will
continue to add subscribers, and retail top-line growth will continue in the high-teen to low-20% range; b)
AWS will continue to grow at a healthy pace, and margins continue to expand, despite rising competition; c)
overall company margins will expand despite aggressive investments in digital content, infrastructure, India
and others; and d) the current valuation will withstand potential macro shocks as well as quarterly variations
in earnings versus consensus. We see a, b, and c as highly likely over the next two years, while d, if it were
to occur, would present buying opportunities.
Media $10,907 $10,938 $10,026 $2,480 $2,283 $2,491 $3,377 $10,631 $2,524 $2,263 $2,506 $3,549 $10,843 $11,064
Electronics & Other GM $18,817 $22,369 $25,195 $7,034 $7,504 $8,056 $10,514 $33,108 $8,637 $8,938 $9,636 $12,943 $40,154 $47,105
Other $211 $209 $197 $52 $57 $62 $74 $245 $65 $69 $74 $90 $299 $335
Total International $29,935 $33,516 $35,418 $9,566 $9,844 $10,609 $13,965 $43,984 $11,226 $11,270 $12,217 $16,582 $51,296 $58,504
y/y % change 13.9% 12.0% 5.7% 23.5% 30.1% 28.3% 17.9% 24.2% 17.4% 14.5% 15.2% 18.7% 16.6% 14.1%
AWS $3,108 $4,644 $7,880 $2,566 $2,886 $3,231 $3,536 $12,219 $3,721 $4,156 $4,588 $5,021 $17,486 $24,546
y/y % change 49.4% 69.7% 63.9% 58.2% 55.0% 47.0% 55.1% 45.0% 44.0% 42.0% 42.0% 43.1% 40.4%
Total Global Net Sales $74,453 $88,988 $107,007 $29,128 $30,404 $32,714 $43,741 $135,987 $35,465 $36,803 $39,508 $53,193 $164,969 $199,029
y/y % change 21.9% 19.5% 20.2% 28.2% 31.1% 29.0% 22.4% 27.1% 21.8% 21.0% 20.8% 21.6% 21.3% 20.6%
Total Cost of Sales $54,182 $62,752 $71,651 $18,866 $19,180 $21,260 $28,958 $88,264 $22,616 $22,849 $25,280 $34,684 $105,428 $125,210
Gross Profit 20,271 26,236 35,356 10,262 11,224 11,454 14,783 47,723 12,849 13,954 14,228 18,509 59,541 73,819
Gross Profit Margin % 27.2% 29.5% 33.0% 35.2% 36.9% 35.0% 33.8% 35.1% 36.2% 37.9% 36.0% 34.8% 36.1% 37.1%
Fulfillment $8,585 $10,766 $13,411 $3,687 $3,878 $4,335 $5,719 $17,619 $4,637 $4,728 $5,228 $7,160 $21,753 $26,088
Marketing & Sales $3,134 $4,332 $5,252 $1,436 $1,546 $1,738 $2,513 $7,233 $1,928 $1,977 $2,159 $2,887 $8,951 $10,621
Technology and Content $6,565 $9,275 $12,542 $3,526 $3,880 $4,135 $4,545 $16,086 $4,593 $4,751 $5,020 $5,963 $20,327 $24,434
General and administrative $1,128 $1,552 $1,747 $497 $580 $639 $717 $2,433 $623 $707 $775 $882 $2,986 $3,624
Other Operating Expenses $114 $133 $171 $45 $55 $32 $34 $166 $34 $34 $34 $34 $136 $136
Total Operating Expenses 73,708 88,810 104,774 28,057 29,119 32,139 42,486 131,801 34,431 35,045 38,496 51,609 159,580 190,113
y/y % change 22.0% 20.5% 18.0% 24.9% 28.2% 28.8% 22.7% 25.8% 22.7% 20.4% 19.8% 21.5% 21.1% 19.1%
% of Revenues 99.0% 99.8% 97.9% 96.3% 95.8% 98.2% 97.1% 96.9% 97.1% 95.2% 97.4% 97.0% 96.7% 95.5%
EBITDA, Adj $5,246 $6,553 $10,805 $3,487 $3,656 $3,467 $4,473 $15,067 $4,238 $4,842 $4,557 $5,361 $18,997 $24,695
y/y % change 37.1% 24.9% 64.9% 63.6% 41.8% 33.8% 27.7% 39.4% 21.5% 32.4% 31.4% 19.8% 26.1% 30.0%
EBITDA Margin 7.0% 7.4% 10.1% 12.0% 12.0% 10.6% 10.2% 11.1% 11.9% 13.2% 11.5% 10.1% 11.5% 12.4%
Depreciation & Amortization $3,253 $4,745 $6,281 $1,827 $1,909 $2,084 $2,297 $8,117 $2,389 $2,461 $2,534 $2,610 $9,994 $11,249
Pro Forma Operating Income (CSOI) $1,993 $1,808 $4,524 $1,660 $2,108 $1,383 $2,176 $6,950 $1,849 $2,381 $2,022 $2,750 $9,003 $13,447
y/y % change 19.5% -9.3% 150.2% 135.1% 96.1% 39.3% 24.3% 53.6% 11.4% 13.0% 46.2% 26.4% 29.5% 49.4%
Margin 2.7% 2.0% 4.2% 5.7% 6.9% 4.2% 5.0% 5.1% 5.2% 6.5% 5.1% 5.2% 5.5% 6.8%
Operating Income $745 $178 $2,233 $1,071 $1,285 $575 $1,255 $4,186 $1,035 $1,758 $1,012 $1,584 $5,389 $8,916
y/y % change 10.2% -76.1% 1154.5% 320.0% 176.9% 41.6% 13.3% 87.5% -3.4% 36.8% 76.0% 26.2% 28.7% 65.4%
Margin 1.0% 0.2% 2.1% 3.7% 4.2% 1.8% 2.9% 3.1% 2.9% 4.8% 2.6% 3.0% 3.3% 4.5%
Interest Income $38 $39 $49 $21 $24 $26 $30 $101 $19 $12 $13 $17 $62 $120
Interest Expense ($141) ($210) ($460) ($117) ($116) ($118) ($133) ($484) ($116) ($116) ($116) ($116) ($464) ($464)
Other Income (Expenses) ($136) ($119) ($254) $81 ($14) $8 $14 $89 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Remeasurements and other $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
PRETAX INCOME $506 ($112) $1,568 $1,056 $1,179 $491 $1,166 $3,892 $938 $1,654 $909 $1,486 $4,987 $8,572
Tax Rate % 29% 29% 29% 45% 26% 47% 36% 29% 30% 30% 30% 30% 29% 29%
Income Tax Expense (Benefit) $162 $167 $951 $475 $307 $229 $414 $1,425 $281 $496 $273 $446 $1,496 $2,571
Equity in Losses of Equity Method Investees ($71) $38 ($21) ($68) ($15) ($10) ($3) ($96) ($96) ($96) ($96) ($96) ($384) ($1,536)
Other (Amort of Goodwill, Acquisition charges, other) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
NET INCOME $273 ($241) $596 $513 $857 $252 $749 $2,371 $561 $1,062 $540 $944 $3,107 $4,464
y/y % change -782.5% -188.3% -347.3% -1000.0% 831.5% 219.0% 55.4% 297.8% 9.3% 23.9% 114.5% 26.0% 31.0% 43.7%
Basic Shares Outstanding 457 462 468 471 473 474 476 474 478 480 482 484 481 489
Diluted Shares Outstanding 461 466 475 481 483 485 486 484 488 490 492 494 491 499
Basic GAAP EPS $0.60 ($0.52) $1.27 $1.09 $1.81 $0.53 $1.57 $5.01 $1.17 $2.21 $1.12 $1.95 $6.46 $9.13
Fully Diluted GAAP EPS $0.59 -$0.52 $1.25 $1.07 $1.77 $0.52 $1.54 $4.90 $1.15 $2.17 $1.10 $1.91 $6.33 $8.95
y/y % change -781.0% -188.0% -340.5% -970.1% 818.0% 214.4% 53.8% 290.6% 7.7% 22.1% 111.4% 24.0% 29.1% 41.4%
Pro Forma EPS (Fully Diluted) $2.21 $4.54 $0.52 $1.69 $2.40 $1.37 $2.72 $8.18 $2.27 $3.01 $2.49 $3.51 $11.28 $15.10
y/y % change 213.4% 105.7% -88.6% -176.5% 372.9% 144.6% 64.4% 1486.7% 34.3% 25.5% 81.2% 29.3% 37.9% 33.9%
Source: Company Reports; Aegis Capital Estimates
Amazon.com Free Cash Flow (in $Millions, except per share data)
Period 2013 2014 2015 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 2016 1Q17E 2Q17E 3Q17E 4Q17E 2017E 2018E
TTM Free Cash Flow, TCM Calc
+ Cash from ops (SCF) $5,474 $6,841 $11,920 $11,259 $12,727 $14,603 $16,442 $16,442 $13,485 $14,479 $16,701 $19,756 $19,756 $23,382
- Capex ($3,443) ($4,892) ($4,588) ($4,896) ($5,394) ($6,040) ($6,736) ($6,736) ($7,153) ($7,098) ($7,035) ($7,424) ($7,424) ($8,956)
= Levered Free Cash Flow $2,031 $1,949 $7,332 $6,361 $7,331 $8,563 $9,706 $9,706 $6,332 $7,381 $9,666 $12,333 $12,333 $14,425
q/q % change -13.2% 15.2% 16.8% 13.3% -34.8% 16.6% 31.0% 27.6%
y/y % change 412.9% -4.0% 276.2% 101.2% 67.6% 58.6% 32.4% 32.4% -0.4% 0.7% 12.9% 27.1% 27.1% 17.0%
FCF % of EBITDA, Adjusted 38.7% 29.7% 67.9% 52.3% 55.4% 60.7% 64.4% 64.4% 23.2% 25.8% 33.7% 64.9% 64.9% 58.4%
TTM FCF per share $4.41 $4.18 $15.44 $13.22 $15.18 $17.66 $19.97 $20.06 $12.98 $15.06 $19.65 $24.96 $25.12 $28.91
q/q % change -13.2% 14.8% 16.3% 13.1% -35.0% 16.1% 30.4% 27.1%
y/y % change 411.8% -5.1% 269.1% 94.5% 65.2% 56.3% 31.0% 30.0% -1.9% -0.8% 11.3% 25.0% 25.2% 15.1%
LFCF/pro forma EPS % 199.8% 92.1% 2994.8% 299.8% 296.0% 248.2% 244.2% 245.3% 89.3% 93.1% 123.2% 221.3% 222.7% 191.4%
FCF Less Lease Principal repayments, TTM $1,251.00 $529.00 $4,748.00 $3,489.00 $3,925.00 $4,853.00 $5,699.00 $5,699.00 $2,177.17 $3,393.62 $5,680.56 $8,411.56 $8,411.52 $11,758.46
q/q % change 0.0% -26.5% 12.5% 23.6% 17.4% -61.8% 55.9% 67.4% 48.1%
y/y % change 0.0% -57.7% 797.5% 133.8% 64.5% 57.0% 20.0% 20.0% -37.6% -13.5% 17.1% 47.6% 47.6% 39.8%
FCF Per-Share Less Lease Obligations $1.14 $10.00 $7.25 $8.13 $10.01 $11.73 $11.78 $4.46 $6.93 $11.55 $17.03 $17.13 $23.56
q/q % change -26.5% 12.0% 23.1% 17.2% -62.0% 55.2% 66.7% 47.5%
y/y % change 0.0% 780.5% 126.1% 62.1% 54.7% 18.8% 17.9% -38.5% -14.8% 15.4% 45.2% 45.4% 37.5%
CSOI - Segment operating income (loss) $673 $660 $1,864 $716 $863 $1,021 $1,106 $3,706 $1,057 $1,263 $1,473 $1,485 $5,278 $7,530
q/q % change 4.2% 20.5% 18.3% 8.3% -71.5% 19.6% 16.6% 0.8%
y/y % change 0.0% -1.9% 182.4% 170.2% 120.7% 96.0% 61.0% 98.8% 47.6% 46.4% 44.2% 34.2% 42.4% 42.7%
y/y % change, Ex-FX 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 161.0% 121.0% 100.0% 62.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Margins 21.7% 14.2% 23.7% 27.9% 29.9% 31.6% 31.3% 30.3% 28.4% 30.4% 32.1% 29.6% 30.2% 30.7%
Fixed assets, net $10,949 $16,967 $21,838 $23,308 $25,190 $27,177 $29,114 $29,114 $28,321 $27,517 $26,760 $26,543 $26,543 $24,251
Deferred tax assets, long term portion $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Goodwill $2,655 $3,319 $3,759 $3,785 $3,774 $3,815 $3,784 $3,784 $3,784 $3,784 $3,784 $3,784 $3,784 $3,784
Other assets $1,930 $2,892 $3,373 $3,522 $3,892 $4,296 $4,723 $4,723 $4,723 $4,723 $4,723 $4,723 $4,723 $4,723
Total Assets $40,159 $54,505 $65,444 $61,128 $65,076 $70,897 $83,402 $83,402 $74,069 $76,256 $81,415 $95,264 $95,264 $112,230
Accounts payable $15,133 $16,459 $20,397 $14,990 $16,123 $18,801 $25,309 $25,309 $17,467 $18,699 $21,794 $29,542 $29,542 $34,278
Accrued expenses and other current liabilities $6,688 $9,807 $10,384 $9,431 $9,613 $10,497 $13,739 $13,739 $12,036 $12,210 $13,293 $17,538 $17,538 $22,223
Unearned revenue $1,159 $1,823 $3,118 $3,766 $3,851 $4,200 $4,768 $4,768 $4,585 $4,662 $5,072 $5,798 $5,798 $7,016
Interest payable $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Current portion of long-term debt and other $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Total current liabilities $22,980 $28,089 $33,899 $28,187 $29,587 $33,498 $43,816 $43,816 $34,088 $35,571 $40,160 $52,879 $52,879 $63,516
Long-term debt $3,191 $8,265 $8,235 $8,219 $8,158 $8,205 $7,694 $7,694 $7,694 $7,694 $7,694 $7,694 $7,694 $7,694
Other Long-term liabilities $4,242 $7,410 $9,926 $9,966 $10,793 $11,412 $12,607 $12,607 $12,607 $12,607 $12,607 $12,607 $12,607 $12,607
Total Liabilities & Shareholders Equity $40,159 $54,505 $65,444 $61,128 $65,076 $70,897 $83,402 $83,402 $74,069 $76,256 $81,415 $95,264 $95,264 $112,230
Source: Company Reports; Aegis Capital Estimates
Amazon.com Cash Flow Statement (in $Millions, except per share data)
Period 2013 2014 2015 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 2016 1Q17E 2Q17E 3Q17E 4Q17E 2017E 2018E
Net income (loss) $273 ($241) $596 $513 $857 $252 $749 $2,371 $561 $1,062 $540 $944 $3,107 $4,464
Adjustments to reconcile net income (loss) to net cash provided$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Depreciation of fixed assets, including internal-use software$3,253
and website development,
$4,745 and other
$6,281
amortization$1,827 $1,909 $2,084 $2,297 $8,117 $2,389 $2,461 $2,534 $2,610 $9,994 $11,249
Stock-based compensation $1,134 $1,497 $2,120 $544 $768 $776 $887 $2,975 $780 $589 $977 $1,132 $3,478 $4,395
Other operating expense (income) $114 $130 $155 $43 $53 $31 $31 $158 $34 $34 $34 $34 $136 $136
Losses (gains) on sales of marketable securities, net $1 ($4) $5 $2 $1 $0 $0 $3 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Remeasurements and other $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Non-cash interest expense and other $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Other Expense (income) $166 $62 $244 ($52) $31 ($23) $21 ($23) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Deferred income taxes ($157) ($319) $82 $11 $106 ($81) ($282) ($246) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Excess tax benefits on stock awards ($78) ($6) ($119) ($207) ($113) ($173) ($336) ($829) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Cumulative effect of change in accounting principle $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Investing Activities
Purchases of fixed assets, including internal-use software and
($3,443)
website development
($4,892) ($4,588) ($1,179) ($1,711) ($1,841) ($2,005) ($6,736) ($1,596) ($1,656) ($1,778) ($2,394) ($7,424) ($8,956)
Acquisitions, net of cash acquired ($311) ($980) ($795) ($16) ($14) ($84) ($3) ($117) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Sales and maturities of marketable securities and other investments
$2,304 $3,349 $3,025 $1,138 $931 $1,431 $1,233 $4,733 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Purchases of marketable securities ($2,826) ($2,543) ($4,092) ($636) ($1,645) ($2,076) ($3,399) ($7,756) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Proceeds from sale of subsidiary $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Investments in equity-method investees and other investments $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Net cash provided by (used in) investing activities ($4,276) ($5,066) ($6,450) ($693) ($2,439) ($2,570) ($4,174) ($9,876) ($1,596) ($1,656) ($1,778) ($2,394) ($7,424) ($8,956)
Financing Activities
Proceeds from exercises of stock options and other $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Excess tax benefit on stock awards $78 $6 $119 $207 $113 $173 $336 $829 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Proceeds from issuance of common stock, net of issuance costs$0 $0 $93 $0 $0 $0 $537 $537 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Common Stock repurchased $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Proceeds from long-term debt and other $380 $6,360 ($680) $9 $66 $8 ($84) ($1) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Repayments of long-term debt, capital lease obligations ($997) ($1,865) ($712) ($175) ($70) ($26) $0 ($271) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Net cash provided by (used in) financing activities ($539) $4,433 ($3,763) ($789) ($1,039) ($827) ($256) ($2,911) ($980) ($980) ($980) ($980) ($3,921) ($2,667)
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Foreign-currency effect on cash and cash equivalents ($85) ($309) ($374) $222 $64 $46 ($543) ($211) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Net increase (decrease) in cash and cash equivalents $574 $5,899 $1,333 ($3,420) $51 $1,135 $5,678 $3,444 ($7,693) $1,822 $3,950 $10,332 $8,412 $11,758
Cash and the beginning of period $8,084 $8,658 $14,557 $15,890 $12,470 $12,521 $13,656 $15,890 $19,334 $11,641 $13,464 $17,414 $19,334 $27,746
Cash and cash equivalents at end of period $8,658 $14,557 $15,890 $12,470 $12,521 $13,656 $19,334 $19,334 $11,641 $13,464 $17,414 $27,746 $27,746 $39,504
Source: Company Reports; Aegis Capital Estimates
Total Media 29.2% 25.3% 21.0% 19.5% 17.1% 17.5% 17.3% 17.8% 16.8% 14.6% 15.1% 15.1% 15.3% 13.3%
Total Electronics 65.5% 68.4% 70.6% 70.5% 72.2% 71.5% 73.4% 72.1% 71.4% 72.8% 72.1% 74.3% 72.8% 73.1%
Total Other 5.3% 1.1% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.1% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3%
North America Media 14.5% 13.0% 11.7% 11.0% 9.6% 9.9% 9.6% 10.0% 9.6% 8.5% 8.7% 8.4% 8.8% 7.8%
North America Electronics 40.3% 43.3% 47.1% 46.4% 47.6% 46.9% 49.4% 47.7% 47.0% 48.5% 47.7% 49.9% 48.5% 49.4%
North America Other 5.0% 0.8% 0.8% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1%
International Media 14.6% 12.3% 9.4% 8.5% 7.5% 7.6% 7.7% 7.8% 7.1% 6.1% 6.3% 6.7% 6.6% 5.6%
International Electronics 25.3% 25.1% 23.5% 24.1% 24.7% 24.6% 24.0% 24.3% 24.4% 24.3% 24.4% 24.3% 24.3% 23.7%
International Other 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Margins
Gross Margins 27.2% 29.5% 33.0% 35.2% 36.9% 35.0% 33.8% 35.1% 36.2% 37.9% 36.0% 34.8% 36.1% 37.1%
EBITDA Margins 7.0% 7.4% 10.1% 12.0% 12.0% 10.6% 10.2% 11.1% 11.9% 13.2% 11.5% 10.1% 11.5% 12.4%
Operating Margins 1.0% 0.2% 2.1% 3.7% 4.2% 1.8% 2.9% 3.1% 2.9% 4.8% 2.6% 3.0% 3.3% 4.5%
Marketing Expenses as a % of sales, ex-Stock based comp 4.1% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 5.0% 5.1% 5.5% 5.1% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.1%
Fulfillment exp. as % of Sales , ex-stock based comp 11.1% 11.7% 12.1% 12.3% 12.5% 12.7% 12.6% 12.5% 12.6% 12.5% 12.7% 13.0% 12.7% 12.6%
Technology & Content exp. as % of Sales, ex-stock based8.0%
comp 9.5% 10.6% 11.0% 12.0% 11.3% 9.3% 10.7% 11.7% 12.0% 11.3% 10.0% 11.1% 11.0%
General and administrative exp. as % of Sales, ex-stock based
1.3% comp 1.5% 1.4% 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.4% 1.6% 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.4% 1.6% 1.6%
Total Opex as % of Sales, ex-stock based comp 97.5% 98.1% 95.9% 94.5% 94.4% 95.9% 95.1% 95.0% 94.9% 93.6% 95.0% 94.9% 94.6% 93.3%
Marketing & Sales (ex-SBC), q/q% --- (18.7)% (70.2)% 19.8% 59.6% --- (23.5)% (72.5)% 11.4% 44.5% --- ---
Marketing & Sales (ex-SBC), y/y% 29.8% 38.1% 20.3% 31.7% 37.4% 35.9% 42.0% 37.4% 33.6% 26.7% 24.3% 14.7% 23.3% 18.3%
Technology and Content (ex-SBC), q/q% 0.1% 13.6% 1.5% 9.5% --- 2.4% 6.4% 1.1% 19.2% --- ---
Technology and Content (ex-SBC), y/y% 44.3% 42.1% 33.6% 27.3% 35.0% 28.2% 26.3% 29.1% 29.3% 21.1% 20.6% 31.3% 25.6% 19.5%
General and administrative (ex-SBC), q/q% 29.2% 20.1% 4.3% 12.6% --- (13.8)% 19.4% 4.1% 13.4% --- ---
General and administrative (ex-SBC), y/y% 26.8% 38.9% 12.0% 16.9% 31.1% 39.2% 82.5% 41.2% 21.8% 21.0% 20.8% 21.6% 21.3% 20.6%
Book Value per Share $21.15 $23.05 $28.18 $30.68 $34.24 $36.66 $39.68 $39.87 $40.33 $41.60 $42.59 $44.71 $44.98 $56.94
Cash & Equivalents per Share $27.01 $37.37 $41.70 $32.97 $34.24 $37.83 $53.46 $53.71 $37.48 $41.04 $48.90 $69.62 $70.05 $92.49
Source: Company Reports; Aegis Capital Estimates
Product Sales $60,903 $70,080 $79,269 $20,581 $21,116 $22,339 $30,629 $94,665 $24,704 $25,192 $26,583 $36,716 $113,195 $134,579
q/q % change -22.7% 2.6% 5.8% 37.1% $0 -19.3% 2.0% 5.5% 38.1% $0 $0
y/y % change 17.7% 15.1% 13.1% 20.5% 23.5% 21.0% 15.1% 19.4% 20.0% 19.3% 19.0% 19.9% 19.6% 18.9%
% of Total 81.8% 78.8% 74.1% 70.7% 69.5% 68.3% 70.0% 69.6% 69.7% 68.5% 67.3% 69.0% 68.6% 67.6%
Service Sales $13,550 $18,908 $27,738 $8,547 $9,288 $10,375 $13,112 $41,322 $10,761 $11,611 $12,925 $16,477 $51,774 $64,450
q/q % change -6.4% 8.7% 11.7% 26.4% $0 -17.9% 7.9% 11.3% 27.5% $0 $0
y/y % change 44.8% 39.5% 46.7% 51.7% 52.7% 50.5% 43.6% 49.0% 25.9% 25.0% 24.6% 25.7% 25.3% 24.5%
% of Total 18.2% 21.2% 25.9% 29.3% 30.5% 31.7% 30.0% 30.4% 30.3% 31.5% 32.7% 31.0% 31.4% 32.4%
3P Sales $6,507 $13,305 $18,837 $5,652 $6,058 $6,772 $9,060 $27,542 $6,560 $6,984 $7,859 $10,813 $32,217 $37,406
q/q % change -12.0% 7.2% 11.8% 33.8% $0 -27.6% 6.5% 12.5% 37.6% $0 $0
y/y % change -4.8% 104.5% 41.6% 47.5% 50.6% 48.5% 41.1% 46.2% 16.1% 15.3% 16.1% 19.4% 17.0% 16.1%
% of Total 8.7% 15.0% 17.6% 19.4% 19.9% 20.7% 20.7% 20.3% 18.5% 19.0% 19.9% 20.3% 19.5% 18.8%
3P Gross Sales $38,276 $78,265 $110,806 $33,247 $35,635 $39,835 $53,294 $162,012 $38,586 $41,083 $46,232 $63,608 $189,509 $220,037
q/q % change -12.0% 7.2% 11.8% 33.8% $0 -27.6% 6.5% 12.5% 37.6% $0 $0
y/y % change -4.8% 104.5% 41.6% 47.5% 50.6% 48.5% 41.1% 46.2% 16.1% 15.3% 16.1% 19.4% 17.0% 16.1%
Commission % 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0%
Total Gross Product Sales $99,179 $148,345 $190,075 $53,828 $56,751 $62,174 $83,923 $256,677 $63,290 $66,276 $72,815 $100,324 $302,704 $354,616
q/q % change -16.4% 5.4% 9.6% 35.0% $0 -24.6% 4.7% 9.9% 37.8% $0 $0
y/y % change 7.9% 49.6% 28.1% 35.8% 39.2% 37.3% 30.3% 35.0% 17.6% 16.8% 17.1% 19.5% 17.9% 17.1%
1P % of Gross Product Sales 61.4% 47.2% 41.7% 38.2% 37.2% 35.9% 36.5% 36.9% 39.0% 38.0% 36.5% 36.6% 37.4% 38.0%
3P % of Gross Product Sales 38.6% 52.8% 58.3% 61.8% 62.8% 64.1% 63.5% 63.1% 61.0% 62.0% 63.5% 63.4% 62.6% 62.0%
AWS, Advertising, CC Fees $3,935 $959 $1,021 $329 $344 $372 $516 $1,561 $481 $471 $477 $643 $2,072 $2,498
q/q % change 8.6% 4.6% 8.1% 38.7% $0 -6.8% -2.1% 1.3% 34.7% $0 $0
y/y % change 56.0% -75.6% 6.5% 40.6% 46.4% 49.4% 70.3% 52.9% 46.2% 36.9% 28.3% 24.6% 32.7% 20.6%
AWS $3,108 $4,644 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Advertising & Other $827 ($3,685) $1,021 $329 $344 $372 $516 $1,561 $481 $471 $477 $643 $2,072 $2,498
Source: Company Reports; Aegis Capital Estimates
Required Disclosures
Price Target
We have a $953 price target on Amazon
Valuation Methodology
Our price target is based on a sum-of-the-parts analysis.
Risk Factors
Rising competition for retail and AWS.
Key man risk Amazons future growth and strategic direction could be negatively impacted if Jeff Bezos were not able to perform
his duties as CEO.
Macro weakness could weigh on growth. The impact of the Brexit vote is one that we are monitoring closely.
India could impose restrictions on foreign firms that, like China, could diminish Amazons competitive position.
Research analyst compensation is not dependent upon investment banking revenues received by Aegis Capital Corp.
Aegis Capital Corp. intends to seek or expects to receive compensation for investment banking services from the subject company within
the next three months.
The firm nor the Research Analyst have any material conflict of interest in which the Research Analyst has a reason to know or knows
at the time of publication of this research report.
As of the report date neither Aegis Capital Corp. or its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities
of the subject company of this report.
Neither the research analyst who prepared this report or a member of the research analysts household has a financial position in the debt
or equity securities of the subject company.
Investment Banking
Services/Past 12 Mos.
Rating Percent Percent
BUY [BUY] 86.11 30.11
HOLD [HOLD] 12.96 21.43
SELL [SELL] 0.93 0.00
Meaning of Ratings
A) A Buy rating is assigned when we do not believe the stock price adequately reflects a company's prospects over 12-18 months.
B) A Hold rating is assigned when we believe the stock price adequately reflects a company's prospects over 12-18 months.
C) A Sell rating is assigned when we believe the stock price more than adequately reflects a company's prospects over 12-18 months.
Other Disclosures
Other Disclosures The information contained herein is based upon sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed by us and is not
considered to be all inclusive. It is not to be construed as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or buy the securities mentioned herein.
Aegis Capital Corp., its affiliates, shareholders, officers, staff, and/or members of their families, may have a position in the securities
mentioned herein, and, before or after your receipt of this report, may make or recommend purchases and/or sales for their own accounts
or for the accounts of other customers of the Firm from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Opinions expressed are our present
opinions only and are subject to change without notice. Aegis Capital Corp. is under no obligation to provide updates to the opinions or
information provided herein. Additional information is available upon request.
The common stock of the subject company in this report may not be suitable for certain investors based on their investment objectives,
degree of risk, as well as their financial status.