Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Abstract Temperature in Iraq is an important atmospheric pressure, wind, evaporation, and relative
meteorological factors because of its great impact on the humidity. Climate scientists have recently been interested
daily life of human in terms of health, work and others. in the subject of changing the climate of the Earth where
This research aims at identifying and studying the climate scientists have tried to determine the nature of climate
change in the study stations and during the specific period change and its reasons. The change is the shift from one
of time and its future impact on the climate of Iraq. This case to another. It is different from the oscillation (which
study analyzes the behavior of monthly and annual is about the rate of the situation and for a short period).
temperature data obtained from the (ECMWF) for selected The case rate continues for decades, and climate change as
stations from Iraq (Mosul, Baghdad and Basrah), which defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
represent (Northern, Middle and Southern) Iraq, Change (IPCC) is a climate change that can be determined
respectively, for the period of one and thirty years (1982- by the use of statistical tests, for example the change in the
2012) and found the relationship between the temperature average and that this change continues for a long period of
with period of study from 1982 to 2012 using some decades [1]. There is also another definition of climate
statistical methods (SLR and Rsqr), The lowest monthly change that is directly or indirectly attributable to human
average of temperature was in DEC and the highest activity, which changes the composition of the
monthly average of temperature was in JUL in all stations atmosphere. It should be noted that the atmosphere
of the study, and found that the lowest annual average of consists of the two groups of the gas group and the non-
temperature was in 1992 and the highest annual average gas group [2]. The reason why scientists are interested in
of temperature in 2010 and for all stations, and found that changing the Earth's climate is the obvious effect on
there is a change climate in the month of MAY of Spring natural phenomena and its implications for human activity.
and the month of SEP of the autumn with the summer The cause of climate change is due to natural internal
months (JUN, JUL and AUG), and found that there is a processes or to external cosmic effects (solar radiation
clear increase in the annual average temperature during processes and solar energy) or continuous human changes
the study period, where the Rsqr for Mosul station was in the composition of the atmosphere [3].
(R2=0.4), Baghdad station was (R2=0.5) and Basrah Causes of Climate Change
station was (R2=0.4), with the possibility of dividing study The causes are divided into two groups: natural causes and
stations (Mosul, Baghdad and Basrah) into three regions human causes. Some scientists divide them into two
climate in terms of total annual average of temperature groups of external causes, namely, astronomical and the
(low, high, and very high) respectively, and Predictability group of internal causes, namely natural or human, or both
of future drought in Iraq. [4] [5]:
Keywords Temperature, Climate change, ECMWF, a) Natural causes include theories:
Meteorological factors, Iraq. 1. Displacement of continents theory.
2. Volcanic dust theory.
I. INTRODUCTION 3. Solar Spots theory.
Temperature can be defined as a form of energy. It is one b) Human causes include theories:
of the most important components of the climate. It has a 1. Carbon dioxide theory.
direct impact on human activity, clothing, housing and 2. Human dust theory.
food, as well as other elements of the vital system. 3. Air pollution theory.
Temperature affects most climate elements such as
Rsqr
R2 is the coefficient of determination, the most common
measure of how well a regression model describes the
data. The closer R2 is to one, the better the independent
variables predict the dependent variable.
R2 equals zero when the values of the independent variable
does not allow any prediction of the dependent variables,
and equals one when you can perfectly predict the
dependent variables from the independent variables [11].
50
MOSUL
45 JAN
40 FEB
MAR
Temperature oC
35
APR
30 MAY
25 JUN
JUL
20 AUG
15 SEP
OCT
10
NOV
5 DEC
0
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Year
50
BAGHDAD
45
JAN
40 FEB
Temperature oC
35 MAR
APR
30 MAY
25 JUN
JUL
20
AUG
15 SEP
10 OCT
NOV
5 DEC
0
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Year
Fig.3: The monthly averages of temperature during the years (1982-2012) for stations (Mosul, Baghdad and Basrah)
50
BAGHDAD
45
JAN
40 FEB
Temperature oC MAR
35
APR
30 MAY
25 JUN
JUL
20
AUG
15 SEP
10 OCT
NOV
5 DEC
0
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Year
In the Fig. 4, which shows the behavior of the monthly At Baghdad Station, the lowest temperature was recorded
average temperature during the period of study one-thirty in JAN 16oC and the highest temperature recorded in JUL
years (1982-2012) of stations Mosul, Baghdad and 45.6oC. At Basrah station, the lowest temperature was
Basrah, where found in the Mosul station that the lowest recorded in JAN 17.9oC and the highest temperature
temperature recorded in JAN 11.8oC and highest recorded in JUL 46.6oC during the study period.
temperature was recorded in JUL 43oC.
MOSUL BAGHDAD
DEC DEC
NOV NOV
OCT OCT
SEP SEP
AUG AUG
Month
Month
JUL JUL
Max. T = 43oC Max. T = 45.6oC
JUN JUN
MAY MAY
APR APR
MAR MAR
FEB FEB
JAN Min. T = 11.8oC JAN Min. T = 16oC
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Temperature oC Temperature oC
BASRAH
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
Month
JUL
Max. T = 46.6oC
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN Min. T = 17.9oC
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Temperature oC
Fig.4: The total monthly average of temperature during one and thirty years from 1982 to 2012 for stations (Mosul, Baghdad
and Basrah)
In the Fig. 5, which shows the behavior of the annual Mosul, Baghdad and Basrah, 25oC, 29.8oC and 32oC
average temperature during the study period one-thirty respectively. The highest temperature recorded in 2010 at
years (1982-2012) and the study stations Mosul, Baghdad all study stations Mosul, Baghdad and Basrah, where it
and Basrah where it was found that the lowest was 29.6oC, 34oC and 35.8oC respectively.
temperature recorded in 1992 in all the study stations
45 45
40 40
35 35
Temperature oC
Temperature oC
30 30
25 25
20 20
15 15
10 10
5 5
0 0
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Year Year
BASRAH
50 Min. T = 32oC Max. T = 35.8oC
45
40
35
Temperature oC
30
25
20
15
10
0
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Year
Fig.5: The annual average of temperature during the years (1982-2012) for stations (Mosul, Baghdad and Basrah)
In the Fig. 6, 7, and 8, showing the temperature during stations. The results obtained and the analysis of
the months of the seasons of the years of study (1982- temperature data showed that there is a high probability of
2012) in stations Mosul, Baghdad and Basrah. The lowest significant climate changes in the study stations in
temperature in the seasons was found in winter months particular and in all regions of Iraq in general in terms of
(DEC, JAN and FEB) and the highest temperature in the high temperature in MAY of the spring, where
seasons in the summer months (JUN, JUL and AUG), that temperatures recorded more than 40oC in stations Basrah
because winter solstice occurred in 21/DEC and the and Baghdad, as well as recorded a large rise in
summer solstice occurred in 21/JUN at all study stations. temperature in SEP of the autumn of more than 42oC in
In spring months (MAR, APR and MAY) and autumn the stations of Basrah and Baghdad, and this indicates the
months (SEP, OCT and NOV), temperatures were convergence of temperature in these months (MAY and
moderate and varied due to the spring equinox at SEP) of temperature in the summer months in the stations
21/MAR and the autumnal equinox at 21/SEP at all study of Baghdad and Basrah.
DEC MAR
JAN APR
Winter FEB Spring MAY
50 50 50 50
45 45 45 45
40 40 40 40
35 35 35 35
Temperature oC
Temperature oC
Temperature oC
Temperature oC
30 30 30 30
25 25 25 25
20 20 20 20
15 15 15 15
10 10 10 10
5 5 5 5
0 0 0 0
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Year Year
Fig.6: The monthly average of temperature during the seasons for the years (1982-2012) in Mosul station
JUN SEP
JUL OCT
Summer AUG Autumn NOV
50 50 50 50
45 45 45 45
40 40 40 40
35 35 35 35
Temperature oC
Temperature oC
Temperature oC
Temperature oC
30 30 30 30
25 25 25 25
20 20 20 20
15 15 15 15
10 10 10 10
5 5 5 5
0 0 0 0
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Year Year
MAR
DEC
APR
JAN
Winter FEB Spring MAY
50 50
50 50
45 45 45 45
40 40 40 40
35 35 35 35
Temperature oC
Temperature oC
Temperature oC
Temperature oC
30 30 30 30
25 25 25 25
20 20 20 20
15 15 15 15
10 10 10 10
5 5 5 5
0 0 0 0
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Year Year
SEP
JUN OCT
JUL
Summer AUG Autumn NOV
50 50
50 50
45 45
45 45
40 40
40 40
35 35
35 35
Temperature oC
Temperature oC
Temperature oC
Temperature oC
30 30
30 30
25 25 25 25
20 20 20 20
15 15 15 15
10 10 10 10
5 5 5 5
0 0 0 0
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Year Year
Fig.7: The monthly average of temperature during the seasons for the years (1982-2012) in Baghdad station
DEC MAR
JAN APR
Winter FEB Spring MAY
50 50 50 50
45 45 45 45
40 40 40 40
35 35 35 35
Temperature oC
Temperature oC
Temperature oC
Temperature oC
30 30 30 30
25 25 25 25
20 20 20 20
15 15 15 15
10 10 10 10
5 5 5 5
0 0 0 0
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Year Year
Fig.8: The monthly average of temperature during the seasons for the years (1982-2012) in Basrah station
50 50 50 50
45 45 45 45
40 40 40 40
35 35 35 35
Temperature oC
Temperature oC
Temperature oC
Temperature oC
30 30 30 30
25 25 25 25
20 20 20 20
15 15 15 15
10 10 10 10
5 5 5 5
0 0 0 0
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Year Year
In the Fig. 9, shows a comparison between the monthly station, The lowest annual average of temperature was
and annual average of thirty-one years from 1982 to 2012 found at the Mosul station (northern Iraq) and the highest
for stations Mosul, Baghdad and Basrah. The lowest annual average of temperature was at the Basrah station
monthly average of temperature was at Mosul station and (southern Iraq).
the highest monthly average of temperature was at Basrah
Mosul Mosul
Baghdad Baghdad
Basrah Basrah
50 50 50 50
45 45 45 45
40 40 40 40
35 35 35 35
Temperature oC
Temperature oC
Temperature oC
Temperature oC
30 30
30 30
25 25
25 25
20 20
20 20
15 15
15 15
10 10
10 10
5 5
5 5
0 0
0 0
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Month Year
Fig.9: Behavior of the monthly and annual average temperature for the years (1982-2012) for study stations
In the Fig. 10, which shows the shape of the positive to the increase in pollutants, the lack of annual rainfall,
linear relationship between the temperature average with lack of vegetation and many other factors, which in turn
the years of study from 1982 to 2012 (thirty-one years) lead to the prediction of future drought, where the Rsqr
where there was a clear increase in temperature over time for Mosul station was (R2=0.4), Baghdad station was
and for all the study stations Mosul, Baghdad and Basrah (R2=0.5) and Basrah station was (R2=0.4).
and this indicates the existence of climate change in due
T Mosul = -108.714 + (0.0681 * Year) TBaghdad = -102.191 + (0.0670 * Year)
R2 = 0.4 R2 = 0.5
40 40
38 38
36 36
34 34
Temperature oC
Temperature oC
32 32
30 30
28 28
26 26
24 24
22 22
20 20
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Year Year
Fig.10: The relationship between the annual averages of temperature with the years (1982-2012) for stations (Mosul,
Baghdad and Basrah)
32
24
study stations into three different climatic regions in
22 terms of change and difference in temperature where it
20 was found that the lowest total annual average of
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
temperature was in the Mosul station was 27.4oC, the
Year
highest total annual average of temperature was in the
Followed the Fig.10 station of Baghdad was 31.7oC, and the very highest total
annual average of temperature was in the station of
In the Fig. 11, shows the comparison of annual Basrah was 33.7oC, Iraq and the world, where the highest
temperature data for three successive decades (1982- annual average of temperature at Basrah station as shown
1992), (1992-2002), and (2002-2012) for three different in Fig. 12.
stations in Iraq Mosul, Baghdad, and Basrah.
Mosul Mosul
Baghdad Baghdad
Basrah Basrah
50 50
45 45
40 40
Max. T Max. T
35 35
Temperature oC
Temperature oC
30 30
25 Min. T 25 Min. T
20 20
15 15
10 10
5 5
0 0
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Year Year
Mosul
Baghdad
Basrah
50
45
40
Max. T
35
Temperature oC
30
25 Min. T
20
15
10
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
Fig.11: Highest and lowest annual average of temperature for three consecutive decades (1982-1992), (1992-2002) and
(2002-2012) for stations (Mosul, Baghdad and Basrah)
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
An acknowledgment to The European Centre for
Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on the data
used in this research.
REFERENCES
[1] N. Shehadeh, Assessment and Quality Assurance in
University Education, Al-Ain University, United
Fig.12: The total annual average of temperature during
Arab Emirates, 2006, pp. 35.
one and thirty years from 1982 to 2012 for stations
[2] A. E. Burt, Understanding Weather and Climate,
(Mosul, Baghdad and Basrah) in Iraq
Pearson Education, 4th edition, London. U.K, 2006,
pp. 45.
IV. CONCLUSIONS
[3] W. R. Cotton, Human Impacts on Weather and
Mosul station is ranked first in the low monthly and
Climate, 2nd edition, Cambridge University Press,
annual temperature, followed by Baghdad station
U.K, 2006, pp. 65.
and the highest monthly and annual temperature of
[4] N. Shehadeh, Contemporary Climatology, Dar Al-
the station in Basrah.
Safa, Amman, Jordan, 2009, pp. 46.
The lowest monthly average of temperature in JAN
[5] H. Abdelkarim, and M. A. Hassan, Natural
and the highest monthly average of temperature in
Climatology, Directorate of Books and Publications
JUL and all the study stations (Mosul, Baghdad and
Tishreen University, Syria, 2009, pp. 23.
Basrah).
[6] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
The lowest monthly average of temperature at
Climate Change, The Scientific Basis, UNEP and
Mosul station was 11.8oC and the highest monthly
WMO Publication, 2001.
average of temperature at Basrah station was 46.6 oC
[7] G. M. Meteb, Study of Extreme Temperature and
during the study period.
Precipitation Changes in Iraq, Unpublished Master
The lowest annual average of temperature in 1992 Thesis, 2008.
and the highest annual average of temperature in [8] K. N. Liou, The absorption, reflection, and
2010 and for all study stations (Mosul, Baghdad, transmission of solar radiation in cloudy
Basrah). atmospheres, Journal of Atmospheric sciences,
Recorded the lowest annual average of temperature Issue. 33, 1967, pp. 798-805.
at Mosul station 25oC and the highest monthly [9] R. C. William, and R. A. Pielke, Human Impact on
average of temperature at Basrah station 35.8oC Weather and Climate, Cambridge University press,
during the study period. 1995, pp. 15.
The lowest temperature in the seasons was during [10] S. Mohammed, Data Analysis, Site Management
the winter months and the highest temperature and Industrial Engineering, 2009.
during the summer months and for all stations. http://samehar.wordpress.com/2009/08/13/0120809/
The lowest annual average of temperature during the [11] Mathematics in Education and Industry (MEI),
decade (1982-1992) and the highest annual average Spearmans rank correlation, December 2007.
of temperature during the decade (2002-2012) and [12] P. Berrisford, D. P. Dee, P. Poli, and R. Brugge,The
for all study stations. ERA-Interim archive, Version 2.0. ERA Report
There is a clear increase in the monthly and annual Series 1, 2011.
average of temperature during the study years. http://www.ecmwf.int/en/elibrary/8174-era-interim-
There is a possibility of climate change in the archive -version-20
stations of the study because of a clear increase in