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No longer an easy play
Analyst
The era of easy oil & gas is over William Simadiputra +62 2130034939
william.simadiputra@id.dbsvickers.com
Low crude oil price is the key factor
Insufficient support from government
Initiate MEDC with HOLD and ELSA with Fully
Valued
ed-TH / sa- MA
Industry Focus
Oil & Gas
Investment thesis: No longer an easy play structural changes in Indonesia's oil & gas industry
Indonesia's oil & gas industry will face challenges ahead on low regulations, which is positive or would at least help
crude oil prices and insignificant industry reform, which will contractors to survive amid the crude oil price downtrend.
negatively impact both oil & gas contractors and service The government's focus on initiating the fuel storage
companies' businesses. Current deregulation and reform expansion in Indonesia amid the slow upstream oil & gas
progress is very slow and a little bit too late, in our view, while reform signals that Indonesia will continue to rely on oil
crude oil price has plunged to a low level. imports in order to extend Pertamina's operational fuel
reserve from 22 days to 30 days. We also believe the
We do not see any relevant incentives from government to initiatives is not a long-term solution to fix the national oil
upstream oil & gas contractors to support oil & gas upstream & gas production bottleneck.
drillers amid to support their operation and business going
concern at our US$60 per barrel and US$65 per barrel in FY16 Uncertainties on PSC expiration extension. The
and FY17 respectively, and our long-term crude oil price of government's plan to take over the expiring PSC (averaging
US$70 per barrel (2017 and beyond). eight years) via Pertamina raises uncertainties for investors.
In this case, Mahakam Block has been under process of
National oil & gas activity, covering from exploration to lifting take over by Pertamina recently under presidential decision.
activity, are facing headwinds which will lead oil & gas
production volume downtrend, which will cause Indonesia to Downtrend in exploration investments; threat for
continue relying on imported energy (mainly oil) in the future. Indonesia's long-term oil & gas reserves and production.
The number of new potential investments and project feasibility Exploration investments have also halted at current crude
have reduced in the last five years and are subject to oil price level as contactors seek to strengthen their balance
impairments at the current level of crude oil price. Meanwhile, sheets and cash flows. Oil & gas contractors will focus on
existing wells are entering their period of decline. short- to medium-term plans such as maintaining
efficiencies on existing operations. Low crude oil price
We initiate coverage on Medco Energy (MEDC) with a HOLD create another challenge besides the internal issues such as
rating and Elnusa with a Fully Valued rating with target prices of the challenging bureaucracy which used to be the only
Rp820 and Rp205 respectively. Amid the bleak oil & gas price single bottleneck of Indonesia's oil & gas industry
outlook, Indonesian oil & gas companies are focusing on expansion.
maintaining positive earnings, capital allocation and cash
reserves while putting production volume growth as a lower Execution risk on existing reserve monetisation . 75% of
priority. This is means there will be no earnings growth and the current remaining oil and gas reserves are located in
potential stock price upside, in our view. the Eastern part of Indonesia, offshore and dominate by
gas. Offshore drilling cash cost per barrel is 200% higher
Low crude oil price. We are basing our oil & gas industry than onshore in general. Moreover, the Eastern part of
analysis on our regional in-house crude oil price assumption Indonesia lacks infrastructure and gas captive buyers which
of US$60 per barrel. There are negative implications to also means the natural gas produced in Eastern part of
Indonesia's oil & gas industry as the country's oil & gas cash Indonesia is not price competitive with the domestic
cost projects average at US$35 per barrel. We believe at market.
current price range of crude oil price, 90% of new
investments and projects in the pipeline are not feasible Negatives for oil & gas services. We are negative on oil &
and subject to be written-off. Existing oil wells are entering gas services as current low crude oil prices squeeze
their period of decline. The industry trend, according to our contractors' profitability and project feasibility. This means
channel check, is focusing on managing costs. oil & gas service companies' earnings outlook will be more
uncertain given rising competition, tough contract
Slow reform in upstream oil & gas industry. Indonesia's oil renegotiation and slow new contract roll-outs.
& gas industry reformation as per government's plans, such
as streamlining the paperwork bureaucracy and incentives Undemanding valuation, but we see further de-rating
for deep water drilling progress is very slow as per a survey potential for ELSA. Indonesia's oil & gas companies' stocks
on the oil & gas stakeholders in Indonesia by have dropped by 70% YTD (including OSV) and we believe
PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC). We do not see any the current valuation is undemanding. MEDC's low-cost
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Industry Focus
Oil & Gas
structure will support its survivability in the currently at our long-term crude oil price assumption. We can be
challenging industry conditions. On the other hand, We wrong if a new breakthrough technology is available in the
believe market expectations on its turnaround story is market at a reasonable price.
overdone amid current slowing industry dynamics which
hurt its upstream-related oil & gas business. We under estimate the feasibility of oil and gas reserves in
Eastern part of Indonesia. We assume the development
and monetisation of Eastern Indonesia's oil & gas reserves
Risks will be very slow on infrastructure bottleneck. We can be
We aware that we could be wrong on our analysis, which could wrong also if the government provides incentives for
lead to inaccurate earnings forecast, target price derivation and offshore deepwater drilling and hence, the price
stock rating. We list the key assumptions that we understand competitiveness could be maintained.
could deviate from our base assumption in our analysis, as
follows: Execution risks. Our forecast on MEDC depends on its
capability to monetise, whether its domestic or overseas oil
Our long-term crude oil price assumption. We base our & gas reserves. We use reserve life index multiple in our
analysis on our in-house long-term crude oil price terminal value, implying that MEDC's execution capability
assumption. Hence, if the actual crude oil price range miss will impact our target price. For ELSA, our earnings growth
from our forecast, our view regarding national oil & gas forecast depends on its capability to find, and renew
industry outlook, per company earnings forecast and target existing contracts with competitive rates.
price can be varied from our view and forecast.
Energy mix substitution threat; gas and coal. Amid the
Faster-than-expected oil and gas reform. If the struggling domestic oil & gas production expansion, again,
government's oil & gas industry plan transformation is coal is the strongest candidate to fill the energy supply gap.
faster than expected, Indonesia's oil & gas investments will Indonesia has 80bn ton of coal reserves which it is ready to
ramp up better than expected and oil & gas service monetise in the case of seaborne market structural
companies will benefit from the rising upstream oil & gas slowdown. Moreover, LNG is also more economically
investments. feasible to import after the oil price slump as oil & gas
players such as Pertagas and Medco are continuously
Better-than-expected drilling technology. We assume only expanding their LNG facility and infrastructure.
conventional drilling technology application in Indonesia as
we believe the unconventional technology is too expensive
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Industry Focus
Oil & Gas
Initiate coverage on MEDC and ELSA with HOLD and Fully However, we also believe that monetising gas reserves woule be
Valued ratings, TP of Rp820 and Rp205 respectively challenging on MEDC's unfavourable geographical conditions.
We initiate MEDC and ELSA with a HOLD and Fully Valued MEDC's gas reserves are located in the Eastern part of
rating with DCF-based target price of Rp820 and Rp205 Indonesia, which means that the company's natural gas should
respectively. Our calls for both stocks reflect our bearish views compete with imported gas and another onshore field natural
on Indonesia's oil & gas sector as the current low crude oil price gas producers.
has raised another challenge besides current bureaucracy bottle
neck, fading periods on existing old wells and offshore new Key earnings forecast
reserves monetization challenges. We forecast MEDC's EBITDA to grow by only 2% FY15-17
CAGR, driven by modest production volume expansion,
We also believe Indonesia's oil & gas companies' valuations are stabilised ASP on stabilised crude oil price volatility and
undemanding and further de-rating potential is minimum, given contribution from jointly controlled investments, mainly on
the steep correction in stock prices in the last one year. DSLNG upstream-downstream projects.
Exception for oil & gas service companies particularly ELSA,
which is exposed to the risks of existing contracts' working fee Revenue, EBITDA and net profit
renegotiations and slow new contract roll-outs. Current 1,000 45%
30%
the turnaround to take a longer time and will not be as good as 600
25%
consensus expects amid current challenging upstream oil and 500
20%
400
gas industry. 300
15%
200 10%
5%
1) We have a Hold rating and TP of Rp820 for MEDC 100
0 0%
We initiate coverage on Medco Energy with a Hold rating with 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F
target price of Rp820 (FY16 EV/EBITDA of 6.9x and P/BV 0.2x), Revenue EBITDA Netprofit EBITDAmargin
is trapped in its overseas assets. Hence, MEDC will focus on 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F
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Industry Focus
Oil & Gas
We believe MEDC will rely on existing productive and profitable also are facing fee renegotiation risks as many contractors are
oil & gas blocks such as Rimau block, South Sumatra, and struggling financially.
potentially its newly commenced Senoro-toili block, in order to
maintain positive cash margins and strong cash flows. We initiate coverage on Elnusa with a Fully Valued rating and
target price of Rp205 (FY16F PE of 8.0x), implying a 15%
Oil & gas reserves by location downside potential from its current stock price. We believe oil &
gas service companies will be the most negatively impact by the
low crude oil price on existing contract renegotiation and
difficulties in obtaining new contracts. ELSA has begun to face
renegotiations from contractors as seen in its 2Q15 financial
performance despite stable profitability.
300 275
Gross profit, EBITDA and net profit forecast (Rpbn)
250 230 224 230 800 760
201
200 176 700 665 652
647
605 599 586
150
600 551
100 506
497
500 468
453
50 412
400
285 308
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 300 238
202 189
Capex Guidance 200 163
128
100
Source: DBS Vickers, Company
(100) (43)
2) Meanwhile, we have a Fully Valued rating on ELSA 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F
We believe oil & gas service companies will secure a low Source: DBS Vickers, Company
number of new contracts on contractors' exploration
investment downtrend in the next several years, given the low We believe ELSA faces negative top-line growth from all its
crude oil price, which will translate into fewer projects entering upstream-related businesses, given the slowing upstream oil &
the exploitation stage. Moreover, existing ongoing contracts gas contractors' activity of its clients. MEDC and Pertamina are
ELSA's largest clients and both have scaled back their capital
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Industry Focus
Oil & Gas
spending mainly on new oil & gas reserve survey and slower top-line growth, ELSA could maintain stable profitability
exploration activity, which are ELSA's significant revenue and mainly on its overhead spending.
earnings contributor. Meanwhile, we believe other segments
such as drilling services activity performance will be relatively We also estimate that ELSA will scale back its capex spending
stable, as contractors will continuously monetise their profitable amid challenging new contracts winning. Our capex forecast is
reserves even at the current low crude oil price, in order to lower than the management's guidance on its company latest
generate cash flows. Our capex assumption is lower than management guidance.
This is in line with our forecast assumption that ELSA will rely
We believe ELSA could maintain stable profitability as its major only on existing project renewals instead of new contracts.
costs are salaries and overheads. ELSA's careful cost control in Hence, ELSA can minimise its capex by slashing unnecessary
maintaining its expenses was seen in its 1H15 performance. spending on new equipment and engineer hiring.
Amid the contractors' contract renegotiation which reflects in
5.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F
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Industry Focus
Oil & Gas
Valuation looks undemanding but we remain cautious MEDC five years' price-to-book value band
Indonesia's oil & gas stock performance, mainly SMC (Shipping)
(x)
like Wintermar Offshore and Logindo Samudra Makmur
dropped by 87% y-o-y and 84% y-o-y respectively per June 1.0
61% and 38% y-o-y respectively in the same period since the 0.8
+1 stdev
crude oil price collapse in June 2014.
0.6 Average
Stock price performance since Mid-June 2014
0%
-1 stdev
0.4
10%
20% 12.70% -2 stdev
30% 0.2
Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
40%
38%
50% Source: DBS Vickers, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
60% 54%
61%
70% ELSA five years price to book value band
80%
90% 84% (x)
87%
100%
2.1
WINS LEAD MEDC ELSA APEX BIPI
+2 stdev
Stockpriceperformance
Average
The valuation has fallen to the financial crisis level in terms of
book value, as the panic selling in recent months is a reflection 0.7
-1 stdev
of the deferred recovery of oil prices, as US shale has yet to
show any meaningful production cuts and the world's largest oil -2 stdev
importer- China- is seeing slower economic growth, further 0.0
Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
fuelled by a strengthened USD and fears of financial crisis.
Source: DBS Vickers, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
MEDC looks attractive at price-to-book below 0.5x, its lowest
P/BV multiple in the last five years. Meanwhile, ELSA is still Indonesia's oil & gas industry is trading at FY16 EV/EBITDA of
trading at 1.2x P/BV, in line with its average five-year average 5.0x. Both ELSA and MEDC are trading at their five-year average
P/BV multiple. We are excluding the smaller, not rated oil & gas EV/EBITDA of 5.0x and 3.5x respectively. Meanwhile, SMC is
companies (both contractors and services) as we see smaller trading at a discount given its capital-intensive business
players struggling more than companies under our coverage, characteristics, mainly on vessel purchases. MEDC is trading at a
thereby distorting our analysis. We believe ELSA's valuation is slight premium to the industry average given its low-cost and
still being backed by its better results following its management strong capital structure, which increase its survivability amid the
turnaround in 2012-2014. currently challenging situation, we believe.
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Industry Focus
Oil & Gas
1.0 -2 stdev
Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 0.0
Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
Source: DBS Vickers, Bloomberg Finance L.P. Source: DBS Vickers, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
14.0 +1 stdev
+1 stdev
5.0
Average Average
3.0 7.0
-1 stdev -1 stdev
1.0 -2 stdev
Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 0.0
Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
Source: DBS Vickers, Bloomberg Finance L.P. Source: DBS Vickers, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Our sanity check with price-to-earnings ratio multiple also Relative to our regional coverage, Indonesia's oil & gas stocks'
confirms that Indonesia's oil & gas companies' valuation is valuation is relatively undemanding relative to our ASEAN
undemanding as it is currently trading at -2SD of its five-year coverage after considering its profitability performance and
multiple standard deviation (see chart) ex. ELSA, which still at overall top-line bottom-line growth outlook (see table on the
five years average mean. We prefer to measure our upstream oil next page). However, we do not see this is as an argument to
& gas companies on EBITDA basis as it is more comparable and accumulate Indonesia's oil & gas stocks as we believe they are
excludes any one-off write-offs, which is possible at the current relatively reasonable priced. Meanwhile, regional oil & gas stock
low crude oil price level and financing cost. EBITDA also tells us valuations, mainly those in Singapore, are demanding, this is
more about the firm's survivability and solvency instead of net reflected by their stock price drop, which is the steepest in our
earnings, in our view. ASEAN coverage.
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Industry Focus
Oil & Gas
Regional Comparison
PE (x) EV/EBITDA PBV ROAE EBITDA growth (%yoy) Net profit growth (%yoy)
Stock Market
Stock price* cap 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016
Indonesia
Logindo Samudramakmur 178 31 0.4 10.8 5.8 3.2 6.1 4.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 16 2 4 20.2 (30.2) 26.3 21.4 (85.5) 87.7
Wintermar Offshore Marine 160 44 2.0 255.1 9.6 3.2 6.6 5.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 11 0 2 7.1 (51.0) 24.4 (19.8) (99.2) 2559.5
Elnusa 343 141 4.8 6.4 10.4 2.1 1.7 1.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 17 9 7 24.3 (17.9) (8.8) 73.2 (39.6) (16.1)
Medco Energy 1,150 260 27.1 7.0 7.9 3.5 4.2 4.7 0.3 0.3 0.2 1 4 3 28.0 (9.0) 1.0 (72.5) 290.3 (12.1)
Malaysia
Bumi Armada 0.91 274 21.3 18.3 12.5 9.3 8.2 7.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 5 4 6 (11.0) 29.6 23.4 (41.7) 16.4 47.2
Coastal Contracts 1.89 1,004 5.4 5.4 7.0 3.1 5.9 6.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 16 13 9 27.7 10.1 (14.1) 26.2 0.1 (21.9)
Dayang Enterprise Holdings 1.7 1,491 8.3 10.2 8.7 5.8 6.6 5.4 1.8 1.7 1.5 24 17 18 55.8 (15.2) 13.9 20.7 (19.0) 16.8
Dialog Group 1.59 8,085 37.8 29.6 29.5 26.9 21.3 20.1 5.2 4.7 4.3 15 17 15 15.8 23.9 8.4 11.7 27.5 0.4
Malaysia Marine & Heavy En. 1.07 1,712 15.9 19.0 20.2 7.8 9.1 8.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 4 3 3 (31.7) (8.8) 0.6 (54.4) (16.4) (6.2)
UMW Holdings 7.68 8,972 8.3 13.0 12.3 7.1 9.0 9.1 1.4 1.3 1.2 17 10 10 11.7 (21.2) 2.8 103.2 (36.5) 5.6
Singapore
Cosco Corporation 0.375 840 40.2 505.4 87.4 20.2 17.8 16.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 2 0 1 (18.7) 13.3 18.5 (31.8) (92.0) 478.1
Ezion Holdings 0.66 731 3.4 5.3 3.0 6.7 7.3 4.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 24 12 18 58.3 1.0 48.2 40.8 (36.1) 78.5
Keppel Corporation 6.76 12,262 6.5 8.4 8.8 5.7 7.3 7.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 19 14 12 4.6 (34.1) (2.8) 2.1 (22.0) (5.2)
Mermaid Maritime 0.158 157 3.2 14.0 9.9 1.8 3.6 7.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 9 2 3 77.5 (45.9) 27.3 214.2 (77.4) 41.8
Sembcorp Marine 2.25 4,701 8.4 10.0 10.3 6.7 7.9 7.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 20 15 14 11.4 (6.8) 4.2 0.8 (15.8) (3.3)
Vard Holdings 0.445 3,119 8.9 31.0 42.8 23.6 54.8 41.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 9 2 2 (37.5) (55.1) 4.9 (2.2) (71.2) (27.6)
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding 1.12 19,197 5.5 5.4 5.0 3.6 2.9 2.2 0.9 0.8 0.7 18 16 16 (13.3) 11.0 4.8 12.4 3.1 7.3
Thailand
IRPC PCL 3.8 77,651 nm 7.6 11.0 nm 9.7 9.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 (7) 14 9 (225) (357) 4.4 (733.5) (295.7) (31.1)
PTT 245 699,794 12.5 9.7 9.0 5.4 6.0 5.4 1.0 1.0 0.9 8 10 10 1.6 (11.6) 13.9 (40.1) 28.8 8.5
PTT Exploration & Production 71.5 283,854 13.2 15.0 11.8 1.7 3.2 3.0 0.7 0.7 0.6 5 5 6 8.7 (36.3) 18.7 (61.8) (11.9) 26.8
* Price as of 30 November 2015
Source : DBS Vickers, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Page 9
Industry Focus
Oil & Gas
Long term crude oil price assumption of US$70 per barrel; next two years. Expectations for OPEC to cut production has
oversupply is still the key issue been low so far given OPEC's reluctance to cede market share.
We have imputed DBSs regional oil and gas price assumption
to our analysis and forecast for Indonesia oil and gas industry OPEC production trends
and the stocks that we cover. We have assumed Brent crude oil
price of US$45/bbl - US$55/bbl in FY15 and US$55-US$65/bbl
in FY16. Our FY15-16 crude oil price assumption in our ELSA
and MEDC financial forecast is US$5/bbl lower than our
regional current oil price forecast. Our long term Brent crude oil
price assumption is US$70/bbl and our regional supply and
demand view is summarized in this section. Our full report
'Drilling Deeper for the Gems' released 18 September 2015.
Wolfbone
WoodfordCana
Utica
Bakken(MT)
PRBTight Oil
MissisipianLime
Wolfcamp(Midland)
EagleFordCondensate
Wolfcamp(Delaware)
BoneSpring/Avalon
NiobaraWattenber
Bakken(ND)
production increase in recent months. Iran is still producing Source: DBS Vickers, EIA
2.8mmbpd and expectations are that can ramp up to
3.8mmbpd - a level before sanctions were imposed - over the
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Industry Focus
Oil & Gas
Low crude oil price has not led to any significant pickup in OECD oil inventories and forecasts
demand either
China will still be adding 0.3mmbpd incremental oil demand in
2015/16 but it will no longer be the demand driver like in the
past. Chinas economic data has been weak in recent weeks.
The stock market turbulence and Yuan's devaluation also
stoked fears of hard landing and collapse in demand for
commodities. Overall OECD inventory levels continue to rise
from 58 days at the end 2014 to about 63 days of supply
currently.
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Industry Focus
Oil & Gas
Indonesia: the era of easy oil & gas drilling is over Meanwhile, on the other hand, 75% of remaining resources are
We see more challenges from economic and technical aspects located offshore, shallow & deepwater, in remote Eastern
for our long-term crude oil price assumption of US$70 per Indonesia, according to our discussion with Indonesia Petroleum
barrel. At the current crude oil price range, which is hovering Association (IPA). As offshore drilling is exposed to more
around US$50-60 per barrel, many new projects commenced in challenges due to the remote and harsher environment,
the last three years should be postponed, if not halted, given offshore, mainly on deep water drilling, is only feasible when
the diminishing drilling economic feasibility. the crude oil price is above US$70/bbl.
Technically, even excluding the estimated time periods for Resources by theme
dealing with administrative work, Indonesia's time to
production will naturally expand given the shift to more
complex offshore reserves which require more financing and
technology, a risk taking without proven risk-and-reward
profile.
New reserves locked offshore, Eastern part of Indonesia Source: DBS Vickers, IPA
In the oil & gas business, crude oil prices also determine the
field economic feasibility covering the risk tolerance, financing Potential reserves by location
and technical aspects. This means, at our long-term crude oil
price assumption of US$70/bbl, not all existing and potential oil
field projects are economically feasible or in the better case, it
would take a longer project payback period.
Page 12
Industry Focus
Oil & Gas
Projects Description
Indonesia deepwater development project (IDD) Integration Gehem-Gendalo-Bangka Project to monetise 3 TCF of gas reserves with an
- Chevron estimated total project capex of US$12bn. Project still awaiting approval revision POD
Floating LNG project in the South Maluku - Abadi field for the monetisation of gas reserves of
approximately 6 TCF with total capex of US$7bn project. Project awaiting approval PSC
Abadi Masela Floating LNG project - Inpex contract extension
Train 3 expansion project with a capacity of 3.8m MPTA and capital expenditure estimated at
Tangguh Train III - BP US$12. FID is expected in 2015 and go on stream in 2019
East Natuna Project (d/h Natuna D-Alpha) has 222 TCF reserves which 46 TCF can be
East Natuna Project 0 (Pertamina-Exxon-Total- produced due to the high CO2 content of 70%. Total capex estimated at US$24bn and
PTTEP) planned decision FID 2016
Source : IPA, DBS Vickers
Gas dominates potential resources; distribution and Gas distributors are only willing to invest in distribution and
infrastructure availability is the key issue transmission pipeline infrastructure if a certain area has a
85% of remaining potential resources is dominated by gases potential captive market. PGAS's distribution infrastructure
which means, future reserves discoveries and production focuses on Sumatera, East Java and West Java, where industrial
activity will be more on gas. On the other hand, fewer oil and manufacturing activities are the busiest.
discoveries means that long-term oil reserves replacement ratio
will remain at the current low level. In this section, we try to PGAS working scope (SBU I, II & III)
assess the impact on Indonesia's oil & gas landscape if gas play
a more important role in Indonesia's energy mix.
Resources by type
Source: DBS Vickers, IPA Moreover, unlike the Western part of Indonesia, the Eastern
part is more scattered and separated by seas. This means that
In terms of the drilling technique, investment and field even distribution and transmission infrastructure has less
infrastructure requirements, they are relatively similar with economical feasibility on a shorter and narrower pipeline scope
drilling oil. However, the difference is in the monetizing, of work. Underwater natural gas transportation will also take
transporting and finding buyers in the Eastern part of time to build and is expensive.
Indonesia. Major gas distributors like PGAS and Pertagas do not
have infrastructure in the Eastern part of Indonesia in the Given the absence of potential buyers in the Eastern part of
absence of a captive market comprising mainly industry buyers. Indonesia, transportation alternatives such as shipping is also
less economical vs. onshore pipeline distribution. We estimate
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Industry Focus
Oil & Gas
that the transportation cost per MMSCFD is 40% higher than part's upstream oil & gas activities will not significantly help
via onshore pipeline. Moreover, there are further infrastructure Indonesia.
requirements such as a dedicated LNG port and storage.
Existing onshore reserves need enhancement and
The only solution is to sell the gas at a higher price, but amid unconventional technology, but it is costly
the weakening economy and natural gas demand as we Existing production oilfields, at an average age of 12 years, is
discussed on our Perusahaan Gas Negara coverage, we believe entering their period of decline. Boosting oil & gas production
that it will be more difficult to find buyers from third-party in old wells requires technology which will raise the drilling cost
distributors or end users for gas produced in the eastern part of higher than conventional earlier stage wells. This means oil
Indonesia. drillers' cash cost will rise in the coming years as they will try to
monetise the existing fields further while waiting to exploit their
In reality, major industry players are suffering from high energy newfound reserves when oil price is at its peak.
costs amid the weakening IDR. Some industry associations have
urged the government to lower the natural gas price, an Oil production will enter its decline phase after 40-50% of the
indication that buyers are being squeezed by competition and oil field reserves have been monetised. We estimate that the
weak consumer purchasing power. current wells have a remaining life of eight years, and assuming
that the reserve replacement ratio remains at the current level
This implies the eastern part of Indonesia's gas price will not be of 60%, most of Indonesia's wells are entering their declining
competitive vs. existing onshore gas produced. A prolonged phase.
story on upstream supply bottleneck is also not really valid in
the current weak economy as the problem also arises from the Oilfield production profile
weakening demand. This means, with a higher price, more 25
Build Plateau phase
expensive natural gas will not find any buyers right now. up
period
20
Declining
phase
Produced & remaining oil and gas profile 15
10
0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Oillifting(MBOPD)
Page 14
Industry Focus
Oil & Gas
SKK Migas encourages PSC contractors to carry out Enhanced negative earnings in the first decade of operations, implying
Oil Activities both in the study and the Field Trial/Pilot Stage. that every dollar invested in the project will be initially burning
There were four trials/pilots in 2014 as below: cash.
Kaji Surfactant Polymer, Medco E&P, completed in May
2014 Unconventional contract areas have stagnated in the past three
Tanjung Surfactant, Pertamina E&P, completed in March years, reflecting the challenges on the field. Indonesia's
2014 unconventional contract areas rose from seven in 2007 to 66 in
Widury Polymer , CNOOC, expected to be completed in 2012, but they had stagnated until 2014. The development in
2018 this contract is in line with global shale revolution in 2009-
Old Rimau Electrical EoR, Medco E&P, expected to 2014. However, as the projects require huge financing with
complete in 2015 unproven outcome in Indonesia, new contract proposals have
fizzled out, leaving behind the existing unfinished
The pilot project has completed but we do not see the EOR unconventional contract areas.
activities being fully implemented given their high cost and
reduced feasibility at the current crude oil price level, according Unconventional contract areas (contracts)
to our talks with contractors. Contractors prefer to maximise 60
54 55 55 55
Page 15
Industry Focus
Oil & Gas
Quality and usefulness of government regulations incentives to domestic and foreign contractors, in our view,
Deteriorate
Significantly unless crude oil price reaches above US$75 per barrel,
improve
16.0% 7.0% according to our estimate. We understand this is part of the
government's initiatives to protect, and meanwhile maximize
the benefit and national revenue from the national oil & gas
assets.
Improve
33.0%
300
extend Pertamina's fuel reserves to 30 days from 22 days.
200
However, without parallel transformation work from the
100 upstream side, we only see that the fuel storage capacity
0 expansion signals that Indonesia will continue to import fuel in
Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Australia Vietnam Brunei the short to medium term to fulfil its domestic demand.
Oil
Source: DBS Vickers, Company One-stop services via BPKM to only solve marginal
challenges
In the paper, in order to unlock and exploit its oil & gas assets, The new application is for a one-stop service via Indonesia's
Indonesia should liberalise its oil & gas assets via partnerships Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM). The initiative is to
with both domestic and foreign contractors, who have better reduce the bureaucracy in applying for working permits and
access to financing, technology and proven execution track provide a better investment climate mainly for foreign investors.
record. However, we think BKPM's one-stop service will only cover the
initial scope of permit and licensing, for new potential investors.
However, in reality, we see Indonesia's PSC scheme and overall This policy does not specifically address the struggling, existing
oil & gas regulations as being provide less support and
Page 16
Industry Focus
Oil & Gas
investors who are in the midst of obtaining approval via the old Indonesia's PSC scheme in chart
procedures.
Moreover, the one-stop service policy also does not address the
new and existing investors' concerns such as the contract
renewal process. Investors under this phase face uncertainties
on asset valuation over Pertamina's intention to take over the
expiring PSC, and local government intervention during the
renewal process.
Current PSC scheme, at current crude oil price range, is Given the PSC term above and the <50% contractors' share,
unattractive for new oil & gas investments we believe the current PSC scheme significantly reduces
Given the lack of expertise and financing on exploration and Indonesia's oil & gas investment's attractiveness and
execution, the government has structured a production sharing competitiveness amid the current low crude oil price, as
contract with oil contractors. Indonesia was the first country to contractors are exposed to the downside risk, mainly in the
introduce a structured production sharing contract in 1966. expensive pre-production stage.
The majority of the government's partners are foreign oil & gas
contractors given their expertise and technology in various oil We understand that the contractor is typically entitled to
fields, both onshore and offshore. recover its exploration and production costs. However, the cost
is only recoverable if the government ensures that a project is
Production sharing contract (PSC) is granted by Indonesian guaranteed a certain desired return on investment and obtains
government via SKK Migas to one or more contractors to commercial status or otherwise the project should be
explore, develop and produce oil & gas reserves and resources terminated.
in designated working areas. The sharing contract work
structure is the oil companies act as the government oil and gas Moreover, SKK Migas could also terminate the contract that
third parties partners with pre-agreed allocation of oil fails to secure new reserves, or if the newly proposed PSC
remaining after payment of cost oil. provides only a marginal return, in a certain timeframe
determined by the government. The contract recently
terminated was for Total's concession in South West Bird's
Head, Papua. The government will terminate 15 PSCs this year
after terminating 20 last year.
Page 17
Industry Focus
Oil & Gas
Contract area status (2014) revenue target to meet the national revenue and spending
Undergoing budget. Even without the PSC term revision, currently oil & gas
terminationCA
11.2% ExploitationCA
22.2%
revenue is projected to decline by 20% y-o-y to Rp20.2tn in
Approved
terminationCA FY16, after dropping by 45% y-o-y to Rp24.5tn in FY15.
2.2%
or even at our long-term crude oil price assumption. Three key Source: DBS Vickers, various media
options for PSC changes :
All costs will be recoverable. However, the government's Pertamina plans to take over the expiring PSC, raising
revenue split will be higher than the current portion uncertainties for existing and potential investors
Gross split system. Contractors will not able to recover Recently, the government appears to have taken over the
their costs. However, they gain a larger revenue split until expiring PSC which also put Indonesia's oil & gas industry under
their investments reach breakeven point, following which scrutiny. The Mahakam block takeover is also the government's
the government's split will gradually widen. opportunity to boost national oil & gas income. This plan raises
Sliding scale system. Contractors costs are still recoverable. uncertainties for new and existing investors. This also raises
However, the government's revenue split is progressive; doubts on the government's one-stop services via BKPM as we
1% for oilfield with 5bn BBTUD threshold and the had discussed previously, as we see this plan as being contrary
government will charge a higher split if production exceeds with sector liberalisation the partnership with contractors to
the threshold. exploit national oil and gas reserves.
However, we see the higher revenue split to contractor being SKK Migas has also not completed valuing the assets of
only applicable at the early stage of the project before the Mahakam Block given its size, according to the media.
contractor reaches the breakeven point of their investments, Uncertainties on oilfield asset values also put stakeholders
following which the government's revenue split will be widened involved in contract renewal negotiations under uncertain
again. We think this proposal does not change the overall net circumstances as the values of underlying assets they are
split between the government and contractors. It only manages negotiating for are undetermined. This is means that the
the timing of cash flows and help contractors to survive in the negotiations will likely take a longer time.
current low crude oil price environment, mainly in the early
stage of development. The Mahakam block case also triggers uncertainties for
contractors in other oil fields. The existing PSC has eight years
Although the final draft on the amendment has not been of remaining life, which we think is relatively short considering
released yet, we do not think there will be any radical changes Indonesia's oil & gas operational phase's slow progress.
on the regulations as the government also has its own oil & gas Moreover, according to SKK Migas, the average contract
Page 18
Industry Focus
Oil & Gas
renegotiation should commence at the latest 10 years before on Pertamina's financing capability as the company's balance
the contract expiration. sheet strength and earnings performance are also relatively
weak.
We expect the takeover plan to disappoint contractors as the
government will enjoy and continue the exploitation phase, Based on Pertamina's sluggish financial performance, but high
leaving the previous contractor to incur billion dollars' worth of capex plan in the next three years for both upstream and
investments in the preliminary exploration stage. downstream segments, we are doubtful on Petamina's
capability to take over the expired PSC from the existing
We also see this action triggering foreigners' perspective contactors. Lower crude oil price has also hit Pertamina's
concerns on asset nationalisation and hinder new investments financial performance as seen recently in 1H15. Pertamina EP's
in the sector, although at the first stage, Pertamina will grant revenue and net profit fell by 64% y-o-y and 38% y-o-y on
an option for a 30% stake to the existing PSC holder for a weaker oil price, while production of both oil & gas at 105.8
smooth transition process. mbopd and 1,030 MMSCFD respectively, fell short of
expectations.
Previously under PSC contract, Total and Inpex had a 50:50
share split and it is scheduled to expire at the end of 2017. But On the other hand, besides the plan to take over the upstream
the government has endorsed Pertamina to become the new expired PSC, Pertamina via Pertagas is also looking to expand
operator of the Mahakam block, taking over Total's role and on the middle segment by developing its LNG storage facility
scheduled to start operating in January 2018. and distribution network around Indonesia with imported LNG.
Beyond the distribution and storage segments, Pertagas is also
The President has the final say on the future of the expired PSC considering the gas-fired independent power plant (IPP) project
as seen in the Mahakam block case among Pertamina, Total business with key project of gas-fired power plant (PLTG) Jawa
and Inpex. The Mahakam block currently produces around 1, Jawa 3 and Riau, partnering with foreigners. Pertagas first
1.6bn standard cubic feet, accounting for 25% of national attempt in power plant project also raises concerns as the
production. current power plant projects are facing multi-year delays on
Besides the central government's final decision, the local land acquisition problems.
government will also play a key role in share negotiation as in
the Mahakam case, the East Kalimantan governor was also We understand that the government's plan is to increase
involved in the Pertamina share negotiation. Pertamina is government presence via expanding Pertamina's role as the
looking for a majority share of 70% and due to the size of the largest national oil company after it dwarfed by the Law
block, Pertamina is asking Inpex to stay in Mahakam as a 22/2001. But on the other hand, we also think Pertamina
partner with a proposed share of 30%. cannot afford the execution under the current PSC scheme, as
Total EP's rejection of its share swap option with Pertamina's contractors will execute all the operations and equipment with
overseas oil & gas assets further complicates the PSC contract their own finances and expertise.
renegotiation. Total believes the current PSC reassessment itself
will take a very long time, while the share swap scheme also Struggling upstream oil & gas drillers also negatively
poses a challenge mainly on valuation works. impact the whole supply chain
Challenging upstream oil & gas environment is also negative for
Beyond the Mahakam case, media news flows also indicate that the supply chain, including downstream and distributors. Oil &
Pertamina is also looking to take over another expiring block gas service revenue derives from contractors upstream
like Cepu which is currently operated by Exxon Mobil and will investment spending both in exploration and exploitation stage.
expire in 2018. Pertamina's rationale is to secure the gas However, low crude oil prices have potentially halted oil & gas
supply as Arun LNG facility will start to operate soon. investments in Indonesia further, after experiencing a flattish
Previously, Arun's operations were halted in October 2014 as its growth trend in the past decade.
LNG export contract expired.
Indonesia's oil & gas service companies are in a fragmented
Unavailability of financing and technology expertise are industry, where each players only has a single-digit market
the key execution risks share. This could potentially trigger a price war in contract fee
The high investments required to fulfil Pertamina's aspirations in order to win new contract tenders and maintain current
in both upstream and downstream segments raises questions contracts in order to stay alive.
Page 19
Industry Focus
Oil & Gas
0 (10) 200
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
100
0
Revenue EBITDAmargin
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Page 20
Industry Focus
Oil & Gas
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016F
Oil Gas
The increase of bureaucracy, besides the financing and Time to production (years)
technology hurdle, has caused domestic national oil & gas 18 17
lifting volume downtrend. Indonesia's peaked oil production in 16
1995 also triggered by the longer of time lag between the oil 14
findings and production startup. Indonesia's oil & gas 12
12
Page 21
Industry Focus
Oil & Gas
Oil & gas replacement ratio (%) SKK Migas domestic oil & gas production forecast
350%
310%
300%
250%
200% 180%
0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Oil Gas
4,000
Oil & gas revenue trend & % to domestic revenue
2,000
250 30%
25%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 200
15%
This also implies that Indonesia oil & gas production rate will 100
10%
continue to decline in the incoming years. SKK Migas itself
even believe that Indonesia's oil & gas production will continue 50
5%
Page 22
Industry Focus
Oil & Gas
slow reform will also negatively impact Indonesia's economic Shifting the contract scheme from B2B to B2G has proven to
situation. be ineffective as its means the cash flow and value
contribution from the Indonesian oil & gas activity will be less
Indonesia's oil production and consumption measurable and accountable, in our view, relative to a B2B
1,800 900 scheme via a limited liability, state-owned company.
1,600 800
1,400 700
The current B2G scheme means investors/contractors should
1,200 600
deal with the government entities, and not state-owned
1,000 500
800 400
companies. The government has full control on all the oil & gas
600 300 found in the country. This means investors should first
400 200 complete the bureaucracy matters before the first exploration
200 100 study.
0 0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
The law also states that Pertamina, as a limited liability
Production Consumption Import
company (Perseroan Terbatas, PT), will only focus on its
Source: DBS Vickers, SKK Migas operations as an independent state-owned oil & gas company
and thus, forces Pertamina to compete with other domestic
Importing oil and maintaining a stable, reasonable retail fuel and international companies.
price amid the rising domestic oil demand means the
government subsidy will continue to burden the government's The Law dwarfed status of Pertamina as key single executor
budget. Energy subsidy to total spending reached 19% of the and supervisor of national oil and gas, and create a
government's total spending in FY14. Meanwhile, government entity called SKK Migas (previously BP Migas)
infrastructure accounts for only 8%. This contradicts the beyond Pertamina and take over its role. The law requires the
government's plan to boost infrastructure expansion in state-owned oil company to be treated like other privately-
Indonesia by allocating a large percentage of the budget for owned, independent ones, both foreign and domestic
energy subsidy. contractors. Since then, the relationship between the oil & gas
contractor and government has become a B2G (Business to
Percentage to total spending government) arrangement instead of a common B2B (Business
25% to business) joint venture.
21%
20%
20%
19%
19% In November 2001, Indonesia's parliament passed a new oil
15% and gas law to replace the previous law, Law No.44/1960 and
13%
No.8/1971 under criticism against it from a number of groups
11%
10% 10%
9% 10% such as national oil company, local government and
8% 8% 8%
environmental groups. The new law aims to scrap the
5%
monopoly of Pertamina and liberalise Indonesia's oil & gas
0% sector.
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Page 23
Industry Focus
Oil & Gas
transferred to the Indonesian government via Ministry of government has its own policy and plan to reform the industry.
Mineral Resources until a new oil & gas law is adopted. We think that is why in reality the time horizon is always
longer than investors expected.
Indonesia's oil & gas industry is one of the worst in the world,
according to Mr. Kurtubi, member of house of representative, Number of permits per operational stage
who is also an oil & gas industry reformation activist. Industry 120
107 109
participants, from survey to exploitation phase, will need to
100
submit more than 600k sheets of documents, complete with 85
60
Number of permits
40
Permits 26
20 14
Ministry of energy and mineral resources 52
Ministry of finance 14 0
Preliminarysurvey Exploration Development Production Praproduction
Ministry of forestry 40
Permits
Ministry of transportation 58
Ministry of industry 3 Source: DBS Vickers, IPA
Ministry of trade 12
Ministry of Nakertrans 14 Indonesia's exploration-to-exploitation ratio, which indicates
the numbers of contract areas converted to exploitation stage,
Ministry of communication and informatic 11
dropped from 86% in 2012 to 40% in 2014. This means most
Ministry of defense 3
of the new exploration projects have not been converted to
Ministry of human right 4
the production stage. Hence, Indonesia's oil & gas industry
Indonesia National Army 2
growth will continue to rely on existing contract areas. We
Indonesia National Police 19 believe this is reflected by the number of permits as per
Ministry of agriculture (BPN) 3 previous chart, where most are in the development and
Local governor 35 production stages.
Local mayor 66
Nuclear energy regulatory 4 Exploration-to-exploitation ratio (%)
IUPHHK holder (private entities) 2 100%
90%
Total 341
80%
Source : IPA, DBS Vickers 70%
60%
This will negatively impact the monetisation of national oil & 50%
Exploitation/explorationCAratio
We think the base case of eight to 10 years' time horizon itself Source: DBS Vickers, SKK Migas
is too long to deal with as Indonesia's average governmental
tenure is only five years. This means there are risks of rework
and delay in the government transition. This is not to mention
the potential regulation changes along the way as each
Page 24
Industry Focus
Oil & Gas
Appendix
Revenue
100
20% FirstTranchePetroleum
20
EquityToBeSplit CostRecovery
65 15
NetRevenueToBeSplit
42.3077% 85
57.6923%
GovernmentShare ContractorShare
35.96 49.04
48%
TaxRevenue TaxPayment
23.54 (23.54)
TotalGovernmentShare NetContractorShare
59.50 25.50
TotalContractorShare
40.50
RevenueFromBuyer
100
PayingAgent
100
GovernmentAccount ContractorAccount
35.96 64.04
ReceivedTaxPayment TaxPayment
23.54 (23.54)
EndingBalance EndingBalance
59.50 40.50
Source: DBS Vickers, Company
Page 25
Industry Focus
Oil & Gas
Indonesia's product sharing contract agreement summary: Plan of Development with Pertamina/contractor share of
67.5%/32.5% if the production level exceeded 75,000 barrels
The contractor is responsible for both technical and of oil per day (BOPD).
financial operations, while the equipment purchased by
the contractors become the property of SKK Migas. Second generation PSC's basic principle remained the same
Contractors do not pay any royalty but pay corporate and but the cost was calculated based on the accepted accounting
dividend tax instead (total around 48% comprising 35% principles without a 40% ceiling (100% recovery). However, it
of corporate tax and 13% of dividend tax, assuming 20% raised complications as to low crude oil price, high cost but
payout ratio). small reserve field might not provide income to the
Contractors obliged for First tranche Petroleum (FTP), government during its lifetime. To cope with this concern,
deduction of production to guarantee government a NOC created a new rule 'Declaration of Commerciality',
minimum share of the petroleum production. The whereby a field could only be classified as commercial for
deduction is 20% of gross revenue prior to cost recovery development if there was at least 49% of the cash flow for the
and will be shared between the government and government. This raised concerns from the contractors as NOC
contractor. held the authority to determine whether an oil field is
Contractors must relinquish a portion of crude oil to fulfil commercial or otherwise. Operators could not recover their
domestic market supply (DMO) 25% of contractors' share costs for non-commercial oil fields.
before tax times lifting times price.
Under the third generation PSC (1988-1999), the government
Key historical development of Indonesia PSC issued incentives to enhance oil exploration activities. The
The revolution of PSC from generation to generation has government's minimum take was reduced to 75% from 85%,
become increasingly unfavourable to the contactors. The latest while those for smaller fields in conventional and frontier areas
oil and gas law 22/2001 requires the product sharing contract were reduced to 80% and 75% respectively. In 1988-1994,
granted by the government to be via SKK Migas instead of the government issued a series of exploration incentive
Pertamina as the national oil company and this is the point packages to encourage new exploration in high-risk areas,
where Indonesia's exploration investments and oil production especially in the Eastern Part of Indonesia. The 1992 incentives
start to gradually decline every year. contained improvements to existing contracts to increase
exploration in high-risk frontier areas such as 125% incentive
The first generation PSC (1966-1976) had the final credit for water depths in excess of 1,500 metres.
management by approving the Work Program, Budget and
Page 26
Industry Focus Industry Focus
Oil & Gas Oil & Gas
Page 27
Industry Focus
Oil & Gas
Company Profiles
Page 28
Indonesia Company Focus
Medco Energi
Bloomberg: MEDC IJ | Reuters: MEDC.JK Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
3 ,1 8 4 .0
184
164
operational profitability. However, MEDCs long term
2 ,6 8 4 .0
144
124
earnings outlook depends on its capability to enhance
2 ,1 8 4 .0 104 current existing reserves, finding new reserves or
84
monetizing its overseas assets which are definitely
1 ,6 8 4 .0
64
1 ,1 8 4 .0
44
6 8 4 .0 24 worth more than its existing concession.
D e c -1 1 J a n -1 3 J a n -1 4 J a n -1 5
M e d c o E n e r g i In t e r n a s io n a l ( L H S ) R e la t iv e J C I IN D E X ( R H S )
Expansion scale-back, cash-flows and balance
Forecasts and Valuation sheet are key priorities. We assume that MEDC will
only spend half of its capex guidance of Rp1tn in FY15-
FY Dec (US$ m) 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F
17 as it focuses on its near term strategy to strengthen
Turnover 751 590 578 593
EBITDA 259 183 195 215 its balance sheet and cash flows. MEDC will postpone
Pre-tax Profit 111 6 10 6 the development of its unprofitable overseas assets and
Net Profit 10 4 6 4 cut investments in exploration projects.
Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 10 11 6 4
EPS (Rp) 40.4 16.7 25.6 16.6
EPS Pre Ex. (Rp) 40.4 46.2 25.6 16.6 Initiate coverage with Hold and target price of
EPS Gth (%) (73) (59) 53 (35) Rp820. We initiate coverage with HOLD rating and
EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) (73) 14 (45) (35) target price of Rp820 (6.9x FY16 EV/EBITDA; 0.2x P/BV).
Diluted EPS (Rp) 40.4 16.7 25.6 16.6
Net DPS (Rp) 21.2 0.0 5.1 1.7 MEDCs valuation is undemanding but prospects for oil
BV Per Share (Rp) 3,836.6 3,944.6 4,235.6 4,448.7 and gas lifting and earnings growth is subdued given
PE (X) 18.7 45.2 29.5 45.5 the low crude oil prices.
PE Pre Ex. (X) 18.7 16.3 29.5 45.5
P/Cash Flow (X) 1.1 1.9 1.5 1.4
EV/EBITDA (X) 3.2 5.1 5.3 4.9
Net Div Yield (%) 2.8 0.0 0.7 0.2 At A Glance
P/Book Value (X) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Issued Capital (m shrs) 3,332
Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 Mkt. Cap (Rpm/US$m) 2,514,927 / 179
ROAE (%) 1.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 Major Shareholders
Encore Energy Pte Ltd (%) 47.0
Consensus EPS (Rp): 1,403.8 8,422.8 11,230.4 PT Medco Energi International 7.0
Other Broker Recs: B: 1 S: 2 H: 4
UBS AG Singapore PT Medco 5.0
ICB Industry : Oil & Gas Free Float (%) 41.0
ICB Sector: Oil & Gas Producers Avg. Daily Vol.(000) 1,645
Principal Business: Integrated energy company, explores and
produces oil and gas both in Indonesia and internationally
ed: TH / sa: MA
Company Focus
Medco Energi
Investment thesis
We initiate coverage with Hold rating and target price of Oil ASP (US$ per barrel)
Rp820 per share, implying 6.9x FY16 EV/EBITDA. We see 2% 140
EBITDA CAGR in FY15-17 on modest oil and gas production 120 113.7 115.6
108.3
volume growth. We believe MEDCO will only focus on its 100
97.8
1,000 45% 20
900 40% 0
800 35% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F
700
30% OilASP
600
25%
500 Source: DBS Vickers, Company
20%
400
15%
300 However, unlike the oil ASP, which is marked to market, we
10%
200
assume MEDC will sell its gas in the domestic market to gas
100 5%
0 0%
distributors and end users. Gas prices are sealed under a
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F contract between buyers and sellers after considering the
Revenue EBITDA Netprofit EBITDAmargin volumes to be transacted. Hence, we assume MEDCs gas
ASP is adjusted up by 3% p.a. in our forecast. We also believe
Source: DBS Vickers, Company
this is fair, as seen in PGAS business model, where
MEDC's earnings trend is in-line with our crude oil benchmark distributors enter into a contract to lock in upstream natural
price forecast trend as we expect relatively flattish volume gas prices, and determine the distribution spreads before
expansion ahead. Meanwhile MEDCs profitability is expected to selling it to end industrial uses.
remain relatively stable thanks to its low cash cost per barrel
Gas ASP (US$ per MMBTU)
and conservative management strategy. MEDC will rely only on
its profitable fields, and not pursue aggressive volume 7.0
5.9 6.0
expansion at current crude oil prices. MEDC's 9M15 financial 6.0 5.6 5.7
5.1
and operational performance reflected the impact of lower 5.0
realised price of US$53.51 per barrel (-49.7% q-o-q) and 4.0 3.8
4.0
environment. 0.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Page 30
Company Focus
Medco Energi
believe MEDC will maintain relatively stable level of We believe Rimau will be able to maintain stable production
profitability through this strategy. momentum given MEDCs Enhancement Oil Recovery (EOR)
program in the Rimau block. Current EOR program is
Oil and gas reserves per region focusing on the Kaji-Semoga block as a pilot project, and it
expected to be applicable on whole Rimau block in. MEDC is
also implementing unconventional oil and gas in 34 work-
over wells including artificial lifting and fracturing. In
addition, MEDC will conduct drilling for one horizontal well
with multiple fracturing at Telisa field. We believe Rimaus
low cost structure enable MEDC to execute its oil production
enhancement program.
500 5.0
400
0.0
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F
200
Oil
100
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: DBS Vickers, Company
Oilandgasrevenue
We also assume the same trend for natural gas lifting
Source: DBS Vickers, Company volumes; natural gas lifting will reach 120 BBTUD in FY15 (-
15% y-o-y) before gradually growing by 3% y-o-y thereafter.
We believe Rimau and South Sumatra, which are MEDCs MEDCs long term growth driver will be supported by its gas
most profitable concessions, will continue to be growth reserves at both South Sumatra and Senoro-Toili, which
drivers for oil production. The Senoro-Toili block which account for 86% of MEDCs natural gas reserves.
completed this year also will contribute to gas production
volume. It started to supply gas for Donggi-Senoro LNG
(DSLNG) plant starting mid-June 2015. Rimau and South
Sumatra account 21% and 23% of MEDC's total oil and gas
daily production volume (BOED) respectively.
Page 31
Company Focus
Medco Energi
Small contribution from non-majority investments On the other hand, we do not rely our forecast and valuation
We forecast income from jointly controlled entities to be flat on net earnings, as we prefer EBITDA metrics which reflect on
at US$7m, which is equity accounted. The largest contributor MEDC core operational performance. MEDCs bottom-line is
is Api Metra Graha (oil and gas services), followed by Medco sensitive to refinancing options for its existing debt and other
Power Indonesia (utilities) and Kuala Langsa (Blok-A, oilfield). one-off charges, and the potential of its reserves given the
The business outlook for MEDC's non-controlled investments current crude oil price environment which would affect the
is stable as seen in their historical performances. We assume economic value of its reserves, such as assets
flat earnings from Donggi Senoro LNG (DSLNG). We also impairment/revaluation, gain/loss on non-core assets
believe the value of MEDCs downstream investments will discontinuation. MEDC booked loss of US$17.5m in 1H15
remain only marginally visible given the equity method due to a one-off charge of US$22m from assets in the East
accounting (jointly controlled investment income). Cameron area under Medco Energi US LLC as the contract
had expired on 31 May 2015.
Jointly controlled investment income contributors
KLL
1.1%
Oil and gas lifting cash cost per barrel (US$ per barrel)
20
18
18 17
16 16
MPI 16
33.8% 14
14 13
12
12
10
8
6
AMG 4
65.2%
2
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F
Liftingcostperbarrel
Source: DBS Vickers, Company
Source: DBS Vickers, Company
We believe MEDC profitability will be stable and EBITDA
MEDC will focus on most profitable reserves despite the long
margins will be steady at 35% in the next three years. This is
life of its reserves
in line with managements strategy of focusing on
We assume MEDC oil and gas exploration project will at least
efficiencies, however, volume expansion growth is expected
maintain its reserves life index at FY14s level or 17 years (2P
to be low. We believe MEDCs cash cost per barrel will
reserves), which implies a reserves replacement ratio of 100%
gradually go up as MEDC needs to enhance its existing
until 2018F. The reserves replacement ratio is a combination
profitable reserves (EOR program) as its overseas reserves are
of slow production volume expansion, reserves enhancement
not economically feasible at the current crude oil price level.
program and exploration activity. However, for the terminal
MEDC also employs local professionals on its oil fields which
year, we have conservatively applied 13 years of reserve life,
we believe its more economical than expatriate.
which reflects the scaling back of MEDCs exploration
investment.
Page 32
Company Focus
Medco Energi
We estimate that reserves will expand from MEDCO EOR and Strong balance sheet and cash flows on capex cut; but third
horizontal drilling on Rimau Blocks. On the South Sumatra party financing still forms the backbone of its balance sheet
block, we believe Lagan-1A wells will start producing after a We assume 40% lower capital expenditure for the next three
series of production testing procedures are carried out. We years vs. MEDCs guidance during its management
also believe current 2D and 3D seismic data acquisition will presentation, implying US$230m average per year. We
support the development of new reserves. believe MEDC will scale back its early stage development
projects mainly on its overseas assets in Yemen and Tunisia,
Oil and gas reserves life (years) both are still in the early development stage. The lower
20 capex will help MEDC to maintain a healthy balance sheet.
18
18 17
16
17 We expect debt to equity ratio will be stable at 1.0x-1.2x.
16
14 14 14
14
12
12
11
Capex forecast vs. management target (US$mn)
10 500 470
8 456
8 450 417
6 400
350 335 325
4 318
2 300
0 250 224 230
201
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 200 176
Reserveslifeindex 150
100 75
Source: DBS Vickers, Company 50
Muted growth in coal mining business 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F
Beside power plant and oil & gas services business, MEDC Capex Guidance
also owns two coal mining work permits (IUP) acquired in Source: DBS Vickers, Company
2009 via PT Duta Tambang Rekayasa and PT Duta Tambang
Sumber Alam with probable coal reserves of 4m tons and 1.7
MEDC will continue rely on third party financing as its will
m tons respectively . The negative growth for coal business
only generate marginal FCFF relative to its debt maturity
revenue was mainly due to weak coal ASP based on the
profile. Weak crude oil prices will lead to weaker cash flow
downtrend of coal benchmark prices.
generation, while some capital has been allocated for certain
under-developing projects. This is implies MEDC will continue
We assume long term thermal coal ASP of US$57 per ton, in
to rely on its capability to find alternative financing options in
line with our in-house long term benchmark thermal coal
order to stay profitable.
price assumption of US$67 per ton, and that production will
remain flat at 582 tons. At this level of coal prices, MEDCs Maturing debt vs. FCF (US$m)
cash margin is around US$8 per ton, which translates into
350
relatively minimal earnings contribution to MEDCs 300 283
300
262
consolidated earnings. 250
200
Coalproduction volume
Page 33
Company Focus
Medco Energi
SWOT Analysis
Strengths Weakness
Competitive cost structure. MEDCs low cash cost per barrel Remote assets. Long term growth depends on MEDCs
helps the company to stay afloat amid the low crude oil price capability to monetise its overseas assets and the eastern
environment. MEDCO cash cost will continue to stay low as it part of Indonesia oil and gas assets. Low crude oil prices
will only focus on utilising its most profitable domestic oil and reduces the operating feasibility at its overseas assets.
gas fields.
Leveraged balance sheet. MEDC is continuously looking
Undeveloped reserves. MEDC has 17 years of oil and gas for cheaper financing alternatives; US$230m debt will
reserves - 65% domestic and 35% overseas. This means mature per year in the next three years as.
MEDC could minimise its exploration investments if necessary.
Opportunities Threats
M &A potential. The challenging oil and gas sector could Crude oil price outlook. If the crude oil price trades at
potentially trigger industry consolidation and provide M&A levels lower than our assumption, this could adversely
opportunities to MEDC, backed by its relatively strong balance impact MEDC earnings growth and profitability
sheet and low gearing level.
Industry regulation. Slow reform in Indonesias oil and gas
Supporting business. MEDCs power plant subsidiaries can sector will negatively impact MEDC as it will be harder to
potentially become big contributors as the development is in find new reserves and business.
line with the government 35,000 MW power plant mega
project
Page 34
Company Focus
Medco Energi
Company Background
Corporate History. MEDC was established in 1980 as an MEDCs oil and gas activities consist of 33 blocks in various
Indonesia drilling contractor, and became an oil and gas stages of production, development, and exploration in
exploration and production company in 1992. After listing on Indonesia, Libya, Oman, Papua New Guinea, United States,
the IDX in 1994, MEDC expanded its exploration and Tunisia and Yemen. MEDC 11 Indonesia consists of 6
production activities with the acquisition of an interest in the producing blocks under PSC with SKK Migas. Beyond its
Rimau block in 1995, followed by the subsequent discovery upstream business, MEDC also owns power plants under PT.
of the Kaji and Semoga oil fields in the same block in 1996. Medco Power Indonesia.
MEDC acquired 100% of Stanvac Indonesia from
Exxon/Mobil. Since 2000, MEDC acquired additional blocks
within Indonesia and outside Indonesia.
Company structure
Page 35
Company Focus
Medco Energi
Page 36
Company Focus
Medco Energi
Management Composition. MEDC's senior management based operations. Management has a proven track record to
team has an average 30 years of experience in exploration guide the company in its daily operations and also to look at
and production of oil and gas in Indonesia and overseas. It potential acquisitions of new assets.
has good local knowledge on Indonesias exploration and
production operators and its good relations with the
government also provides support o MEDCs Indonesian
Hilmi Panigoro President Director Indonesian citizen. Joined Medco Group in 1997. Took MBA Core
Program at Thunderbird University, Arizona, USA in 1984 and received
MSc from Colorado School of Mines, USA in 1988. Graduated from
Bandung Institute of Technology in Geological Engineering in 1981.
Joined Medco Energi as Vice President in 1997 and became a Director
of the Company from 1998 - 2001. Appointed as Chief Executive
Officer of PT Medco Energi Internasional in 2001 and presently he is
also serving as Director and Commisioner in several of Medcos
subsidiaries
Roberto Lorato Director, Chief Executive Officer Over a period of some 30 years, Roberto has gained
extensive experience in the international O&G industry through a
variety of roles - from project economics to business development to
general management - in Italy, West Africa, Russia, Central Asia, the
UK and SE Asia. As President of Premier Oil Indonesia (2010-15),
Managing Director of Eni Indonesia (2006-09), President & CEO of
VICO (2003-06) and Managing Director of Agip, UK (2001-02), he has
successfully managed the reorganisation of large and complex
activities. Since 2006, Roberto has also been an active member of the
IPA Board of Directors and was elected President of the Association for
the years 2008 and 2009.
Anthony Mathias Director, Chief Financial Officer Tony has worked in the O&G Industry since 1994 in a variety of
positions in Strategy, Portfolio and Risk Management, Business
Improvement, post-acquisition company integration, Finance and
Planning. He gained this experience while working in a several
international locations and fiscal regimes in both the UK and
Norwegian North Sea, Houston Texas, Calgary Canada, Ho Chi Min
Vietnam and Jakarta Indonesia. Firstly with Mobil Oil, then
ConocoPhillips and most recently Premier Oil. Tony has held the
position of Vice-President Finance and IT with Premier Oil since 2012.
After university Tony began his career as an Engineer with GEC
Marconi in 1988 before joining PriceWaterHouse in 1990.
Ronald Gunawan Director, Chief Operating Officer Over a period of 27 years, Ronald has gained extensive experience in
the national and international O&G industry through a variety of roles -
from field operations, subsurface, project management, and asset
management to general management - in Indonesia, Australia and Italy.
As VP Operations & Development of Premier Oil Indonesia (2014-15),
President & General Manager of Hess Indonesia (2012-14), various
management positions in operations and projects with Eni Australia and
Eni E&P (2007-2012), and VP Assets of Vico Indonesia (2002-2006), he
has well rounded experience in managing both newly developed and
mature complex assets in onshore and offshore.
Source: Company
Page 37
Company Focus
Medco Energi
Competitive Strengths
Management team with proven track record. Execution MEDCs earnings outlook amid modest oil and gas volume
is the key issue in Indonesias oil and gas industry. growth and ASP.
Relationships with government and understanding the local
culture are also plus points in running businesses in Non-core assets divestment. MEDC may also potentially
Indonesia. Management has been able to navigate the divest its non-core assets and unprofitable fields as part of its
company amid domestic regulations, bureaucracy and strategy to strengthen its balance sheet and cash flows. As
technical challenges. part of this strategy, MEDC has divested its ethanol business.
Low cost structure. MEDCs average lifting cost is US$15 Faster than expected oil and gas industry reform. If the
per barrel thanks to employment of local professionals. A oil and gas reform by the government is faster than expected,
lower cost structure guarantees positive EBITDA from current it should be positive for Indonesias oil and gas industry. This
operating reserves which would help MEDC to maintain its holds re-rating potential for listed Indonesia oil and gas
balance sheet and cash flows. related companies.
Management is prepared for the worst case scenario. Worse than expected oil and gas lifting performance. We
Management has prepared an operational and financial assume natural gas production volume would still be able
strategy based on crude oil price of US$40 per barrel. This is to offset the oil production volume going forward. If MEDC
to provide a high degree of comfort to shareholders and cuts natural gas production, its operational and financial
creditors that it should be able to sustain operations and cash performance will be below what we expect.
flows.
Oil and gas reserve and resource. Oil and gas reserve and
Key catalyst resource estimates depend on various assumptions that
Successful refinancing. MEDC continue to search for may be inaccurate, with the main impact from crude oil
more competitive financing options to cope with the low price assumption. Moreover our target price implies MEDC
crude oil price environment. Lower financing cost will support will be able to fully monetise its remaining 13 years reserve
life in the terminal year.
Page 38
Company Focus
Medco Energi
Crude oil ASP (US$/bbl) 115.6 108.3 97.8 50.0 52.0 55.0
Lifting cost (US$/bbl) 13.0 14.0 16.0 16.0 17.0 18.0
Capex (US$mn) (165.5) (308.0) (229.6) (274.6) (201.3) (127.7)
Segmental Breakdown
FY Dec 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F
Lower ASP but marginal
Revenues (US$ m) production volume
growth to drive earnings
Oil and gas sales 873 827 701 553 545 560 growth
Chemicals and other
9 43 36 24 20 20
petroleum products sales
Services 27 17 13 13 13 13
Total 909 887 751 590 578 593
Operating profit (US$ m)
Oil and gas sales 228 268 255 190 210 217
Chemicals and other
(4) (14) 15 3 9 8
petroleum products sales
Services (4) (1) (2) (7) 5 5
Total 220 253 268 185 224 230
Operating profit Margins (%)
Oil and gas sales 26.1 32.4 36.4 34.2 38.5 38.7
Chemicals and other
(47.1) (33.4) 42.1 13.8 43.7 39.8
petroleum products sales Profitability relatively stable
Services (13.3) (3.3) (18.0) (56.6) 37.9 39.8 on low lifting cost
Page 39
Company Focus
Medco Energi
25.0%
Revenue 909 887 751 590 578 593
20.0%
Cost of Goods Sold (513) (522) (480) (378) (389) (406)
15.0%
Gross Profit 396 365 271 212 189 187
Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (148) (116) (106) (115) (113) (106) 10.0%
Page 40
Company Focus
Medco Energi
Page 41
Company Focus
Medco Energi
250.0
Dep. & Amort. 98 100 87 100 111 126
200.0
Tax Paid (156) (154) (98) (2) (3) (2) 150.0
Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) (1) (9) (7) 0 0 0 100.0
Page 42
Company Focus
Medco Energi
10%
Cost of Goods Sold (118) (145) (127) (78) (101) (80)
0%
Gross Profit 53 47 72 50 45 64 -10%
Other Oper. (Exp)/Inc (15) (22) (27) (32) (16) (44) -20%
Growth
Revenue Gth (%) (9.8) 12.1 3.8 (35.8) 14.4 (1.2)
Core operating profitability
EBITDA Gth (%) (2.6) (40.8) (22.4) (22.8) 53.2 (90.1) relatively stable quarter on
Opg Profit Gth (%) (34.2) (34.4) 81.8 (60.8) 62.9 (30.6) quarter
Net Profit Gth (%) 94.7 (86.9) (20.1) nm (998.9) (68.2)
Margins
Gross Margins (%) 31.2 24.5 36.3 39.0 30.8 44.4
Opg Profit Margins (%) 22.1 12.9 22.6 13.8 19.7 13.8
Net Profit Margins (%) 3.4 0.4 0.3 (1.1) (11.0) (18.7)
Page 43
Company Focus
Medco Energi
Valuation
We initiate MEDC with Hold rating and DCF-based target MEDC will generate positive EBITDA for next three years.
price of Rp820, which implies 6.9x FY16F EV/EBITDA: MEDC also has ample exploration stage oil and gas reserves
for future development.
Forecast FY15-24 forms the first stage of our DCF
valuation. Our production volume and ASP assumption MEDC five years EV/EBITDA
result in 3% EBITDA growth for FY16-25F. Our long (x)
term crude oil benchmark price is US$70 per ton
7.0
For the second stage of the DCF analysis, we employ
6.0
exit multiple approach instead of terminal growth rate +2 stdev
on mining companys finite life. MEDC has remaining 5.0 +1 stdev
17 reserves life in FY25. We multiply our FCFF at the 4.0 Average
terminal year by these additional years to generate our
3.0 -1 stdev
terminal value.
2.0
Assumptions : WACC 7.6%; cost of equity 14.0%; -2 stdev
(risk free rate of 8.0%, risk premium of 7.0% and beta 1.0
Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15
0.9x) and cost of debt of 5.0% (after-tax)
Source: DBS Vickers, Company
Our target price implies 6.9x FY16F EV/EBITDA, which is
slightly above our domestic peers (including OSV
companies) but still below regional listed oil and gas
companies . Based on MEDCs outlook, we think the
valuation is fair, given its low cost structure. In addition,
DCF Valuation
US$mn FY16F FY17F FY18F FY19F FY20F FY21F FY22F FY23F FY24F FY25F
EBITDA 187 207 236 241 247 254 261 269 277 286
(-) Depreciation (111) (126) (135) (141) (146) (152) (158) (164) (170) (177)
EBIT 76 81 101 101 101 102 103 104 107 110
Tax rate 28% (3) (2) (5) (4) (4) (4) (5) (5) (6) (7)
NOPLAT 73 79 96 97 97 98 98 99 101 102
(+) Depreciation 111 126 135 141 146 152 158 164 170 177
(-) Capex (275) (201) (128) (133) (138) (144) (149) (147) (153) (149)
(+/-) Changes in WC 4 (1) (1) (2) (1) (1) (1) (0) (0) (0)
Free Cash Flow for Firm (87) 2 102 103 105 105 106 116 118 130
NPV 472
Terminal value 826
Equity 1,299
Net debt (1,104)
Page 44
Indonesia Company Focus
Elnusa
Bloomberg: ELSA IJ Equity | Reuters: ELSA.JK Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
647.6 208
crude oil price halted ELSA's upstream services segment
547.6
Elnusa (LHS) Relative JCI INDEX (RHS) This will potentially hurt ELSA's investments in
equipment and technology on lower asset utilization,
Forecasts and Valuation
and unfavorable working fee.
FY Dec (Rp bn) 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F
Turnover 4,221 3,771 3,067 2,865 Low crude oil price also hindered turnaround
EBITDA 665 486 497 468 effort. ELSA's turnaround efforts since 2010 have
Pre-tax Profit 560 441 272 233
Net Profit 412 308 189 163
resulted in profitability expansion and share price
Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 412 308 189 163 appreciation. However, we expect the turnaround effort
EPS (Rp) 56.5 42.2 25.9 22.3 to be more challenging at the current crude oil price
EPS Pre Ex. (Rp) 56.5 42.2 25.9 22.3 range. ELSA's turnaround program has not been
EPS Gth (%) 73 (25) (38) (14)
EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) 73 (25) (38) (14) completed yet as profitability on reach half of its
Diluted EPS (Rp) 56.5 42.2 25.9 22.3 potential, in our view.
Net DPS (Rp) 16.3 12.2 7.5 6.4
BV Per Share (Rp) 349.6 379.6 398.0 413.9
PE (X) 4.3 5.8 9.4 11.0
Initiate with Fully Valued call and TP of Rp205.
PE Pre Ex. (X) 4.3 5.8 9.4 11.0 Our DCF-based TP implies FY16 PE of 8.0x. We believe
P/Cash Flow (X) 4.3 2.8 3.8 8.4 ELSA should de-rate amid earnings uncertainties, mainly
EV/EBITDA (X) 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.7 on services contract renewals and slow new contract
Net Div Yield (%) 6.7 5.0 3.1 2.6
P/Book Value (X) 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 roll-outs.
Net Debt/Equity (X) CASH CASH CASH CASH
ROAE (%) 17.2 11.6 6.7 5.5
At A Glance
Consensus EPS (Rp): - - - Issued Capital (m shrs) 7,299
Other Broker Recs: B: 1 S: 1 H: 2 Mkt. Cap (Rpm/US$m) 1,788,133 / 127
Major Shareholders
ICB Industry : Oil & Gas Pertamina Persero PT (%) 41.1
ICB Sector: Mining Dapen Pertamina (%) 17.8
Principal Business: Integrated oil services company, offers services
Free Float (%) 41.1
that include geophysical data, drilling and oil field services
Avg. Daily Vol.(000) 31,682
ed: TH / sa: MA
Company Focus
Elnusa
Investment thesis
ELSA's business models consist of integrated upstream and ELSA 's three years PE Band
downstream oil & gas service companies. In our analysis, we (x)
divide the business segments into three as per new 21.0
Turnaround
+2 stdev
management based on the services and product line period
approach into upstream oil & gas services, downstream oil & before crude
14.0 oil price +1 stdev
gas services and upstream supporting business. crash
Average
ELSA per segment revenue breakdown
7.0
-1 stdev
-2 stdev
0.0
DownstreamOiland Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
GasServices
Revenue Source: DBS Vickers, Company
41.6%
IntegratedUpstream
OilandGasServices However, ELSA's current EBITDA margin is still lower than
52.7%
other oil & gas services companies like Apexindo's (APEX IJ,
Not rated) 45%. ELSA itself could historically achieve EBITDA
margin of 34% in 2010. This means there is scope for
Upstreamoilandgas turnaround to achieve its historical high EBITDA margin and a
supportservices
5.7% sign that the turnaround story is not finished yet.
Source: DBS Vickers, Company
We see slow reform progress and weak crude oil prices giving
ELSA's turnaround story from 2011-2014 have resulted in
the industry another set of challenges, resulting in slower
better top-line growth and profitability. The key turnaround
exploration investments and upstream contractors' activities.
stories is on ELSA's radical changes to its governance and
we see this is raise challenges to the oil and services
internal control which have resulted in better expense
companies, given the slowing incoming new contracts and
control. ELSA's EBITDA margin expanded from a single digit
re-pricing risk from existing contracts in hand.
in the first semester of 2011 to double digits; 15% on
average starting second semester of 2013 (see chart below).
Moreover, our forecast relies on existing project renewals (flat
numbers of contracts under progress in our forecast). Our
q-o-q EBITDA margin trend
assumption is based on ELSA's long-standing relationships
1,400 25
with its primary clients such as Pertamina E & P and Medco
1,200 20
Energy, which have a solid cost structure and balance sheet
1,000 15 and hence, we believe they will maintain production and
800 10 exploration expenditure.
600 5
Upstream oil & gas services
400 0
We estimate revenue to drop by 60% FY15-17 CAGR, mainly
200 (5)
driven by negative growth on Seismic data acquisition and
0 (10)
oilfield maintenance services. Both account for 62% of
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
Page 46
Company Focus
Elnusa
ELSA per segment revenue breakdown (Rpbn) Oilfield maintenance services (Rpbn)
1200 250
221
980 208 208
1000 953 964
867 867 200
177 173 173
162
800 736 717
630 150
604 122 122
600 560 118 115 115 109 109 109
475 100 100
441 443
100
400 353
314 70 70
50
200 50
3 3 3 2 2
0
2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F
Drillingservices Seismicdata acquistion andseismic Oilfieldmaintenance
HydraulicWorkover Services SnubbingServices CoiledTubingServices Pumping Others
Source: DBS Vickers, Company
Source: DBS Vickers, Company
We assume 2D & 3D data collection on Seismic data
We assume a steady flow of drilling projects as we believe
collection and processing services will drop to 1,000sqkm in
producing oilfield will maintain its production activity in order
FY15 before falling further to 800 sqkm and 500sqkm in
to reach the breakeven point. We assume wire-line's total
FY16 and FY17 respectively. Our assumption is reflecting the
number of logging projects will remain at 20 projects and
lower survey, mainly seismic data collection activity which is
utilisation rate of 88% in FY15 before drop to 17 projects
an early stage of exploration expenditures in the new field.
and 13 projects in FY16 and FY17 respectively with lower
equipment utilization rate of 70%. Meanwhile, we assume
Seismic and data acquisition (km)
drilling rig will still utilise its two projects in FY15 before drop
4,000 3,741
to only one project in with utilization rtae of 83% and 65%
3,500
2,907
in FY15 and FY16 respectively.
3,000
2,567
2,500
1,982
Drilling service revenue (Rpbn)
2,000
600
549 549
1,500
1,000 500
1,000 800 451
500
500 400 372
347
289 289 284
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F
On oil field maintenance services, we expect overall revenue 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F
maintenance activity. This is in line with ELSA clients' cost- Source: DBS Vickers, Company
cutting trend and we believe that miscellaneous maintenance
Downstream oil & gas services
activity will be less of a priority.
We forecast throughput transportation business to continue
to make a dominant contribution to ELSA's downstream
business. Meanwhile its retail business will continue to
contribute in a minor way to its revenue. ELSA's management
also do not have any ambitious targets to expand its retail
fuel distribution business in the short term.
Page 47
Company Focus
Elnusa
Drilling service revenue (%) Upstream oil and gas revenue (Rpbn)
Fueldistribution Retailfuel 300
(depo) distribution
1.2% 0.2% 242
250
218 215
205
194
200
150
100
50
Throughput 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F
transpotatation
98.6% Upstream oiland gassupport
6,000 Overhead
48.2%
4,000
2,000
0
2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F
Subcontract
23.6%
VolumeThroughputTransportasi(mnL)
Upstream oil & gas support Management also emphasises on efficiencies and focuses on
We forecast only flat growth on upstream oil & gas support maintaining profitability and this is seen in 2H15 financial
due to weak activity on upstream oil & gas services and performance. Amid contract renegotiation from its major
overall activities. The supporting business consists of clients, ELSA is capable of maintaining stable profitability
equipment fabrication and construction via its subsidiaries PT amid downtrend in revenue.
Elnusa Fabrikasi & Konstruksi, PT Sigma Cipta Utama and PT
Patra Nusa Data.
Page 48
Company Focus
Elnusa
Quarterly EBITDA margin trend (%) Revenue, EBITDA and net profit forecast (Rpbn)
1,400 25 6,000 800
700
1,200 20 5,000
600
1,000 15
4,000 500
800 10 400
3,000
600 5 300
2,000 200
400 0
100
1,000
200 (5) 0
0 (10) 0 (100)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
Revenue EBITDA Netprofit
Revenue EBITDAmargin
We forecast that ELSA will maintain stable profitability in FY16- We also estimate that ELSA will scale back its capex spending
17 amid top-line downtrend as we believe management, whom amid challenging new contracts winning. Our forecast capex
has so far showed successful efficiency efforts, will continue to is lower than the management's guidance on its company's
support ELSA's EBITDA and earnings. Our earnings forecast latest presentation as we only accounted for minor capex
implies FY15-17 EBITDA margin of 15-16% ahead, a stable spending for new contracts, this is in line with our forecast
profitability level since ELSA's turnaround in 2013. assumption that ELSA will rely only on existing project
renewals instead of new contracts. Hence, ELSA can minimise
ELSA's profitability trend (%) its capex by slashing unnecessary spending on new
equipment.
20.0
18.0
17.3
16.516.2
15.7 15.8 15.5 15.816.3
15.0
14.6 Capex trend (Rpbn)
12.7
11.5 400
9.8 366
10.0 8.2 350
6.0 5.8 6.2 5.7
4.3 300
5.0 262 264
2.7
250
215 208
0.0 200
0.9
150 130
5.0 110
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 100
12% y-o-y) and Rp497bn (-15% y-o-y), net profit also has a Source: DBS Vickers, Company
similar trend and reached Rp307bn (-25% y-o-y) and Rp209bn
(-38% y-o-y) in FY15 and FY16 respectively. Our earnings We believe capital expenditure spending scale back, despite
forecast is around 15% below consensus forecast as we believe its sign the slowing business, it also positive for ELSA cash
the consensus has not fully accounted for the possibility of position and gearing level. Currently ELSA is in a net cash
existing contract renegotiations which will hurt ELSA's revenue position and we believe the trend will continue ahead, given
and earnings growth, despite ELSA's capability to maintain the lack of significant expansion, we believe, as ELSA will only
stable profitability ahead. budget its capital spending after it secured contracts in terms
of size and fee rate.
Page 49
Company Focus
Elnusa
SWOT Analysis
Strengths Weakness
Integrated services. ELSA provides a wide range of services Crude oil price-sensitive business model. ELSA's
on both oil & gas upstream and downstream. We believe this diversified businesses are sensitive to a single key variable,
gives ELSA the edge during the contract tender with the crude oil price since it determines clients activity, which
competitors on its 'one-stop shopping concept' third party outsourced to ELSA.
Strong balance sheet. ELSA's strong balance sheet relative Expose to Indonesia's slow developing oil & gas field.
to other oil & gas service companies is another competitive Indonesia's slow reform in oil & gas industry are negative to
advantage as it provides better survival rate vs. leverages oil & gas services companies on risk on slow new project
roll-outs.
Reputable client portfolio. ELSA's key clients are Pertamina
and Medco Energy, both largest national state-owned and
privately-owned oil & gas operators.
Opportunities Threats
Overseas projects. ELSA plans to tap overseas oil & gas New contract evaporation. Low crude oil price will hinder
projects such as India and Myanmar to provide earnings new contracts as oil & gas contractors will halt their capital
growth driver amid slowing domestic oil & gas activity mainly expenditure mainly for the new reserves exploration activity.
in exploration stage.
Competition. ELSA has only 2% of market share.
Downstream business. ELSA can focus on downstream Depressed oil & gas service companies will continue to
business if its upstream business continue to be challenging attract new contracts by offering attractive pricing. If the
ahead. ELSA's throughput transportation volume growth trend goes viral, it could trigger industry price wars, which
relatively well in the last three years. would be negative for profitability.
Page 50
Company Focus
Elnusa
Company Background
Corporate History. ELSA was established in January 1969 Upstream oil & gas services
as PT Electronika Nusantara, which transformed into PT.
Elnusa in 1984 and started to explore oil & gas-related Oilfield maintenance services. Most of the projects in
business such as oil & gas data storage and management, these segments are projects with long-term contracts in
oilfield services, and domestic fuel distribution through the various locations, especially in Kalimantan, Java and
establishment of PT Sigma Cipta Utama, PT Elnusa Workover Sumatera. Key revenue contributors are Hydraulic Work-
Hydraulic, and PT Elnusa Petrofin. ELSA reinforced its over and Coiled Tubing business. Utilisation rate on the
position in the oil & gas industry by establishing PT Elnusa equipment such as Coiled Tubing and Slickline business is
Drilling Services, engaged in integrated drilling services, and crucial in maintaining revenue growth in this segment,
acquired PT Purna Bina Nusa, a subsidiary engaged in drilling besides the addition of new equipment.
services, and acquired PT Purna Bina Nusa (now PT Elnusa
Drilling services. Projects in these segments are
Fabrikasi Konstruksi) based in Batam.
medium-term contracts with main revenue contributor
Wire-line Logging and Drilling Services businesses.
Turnaround story. ELSA's turnaround story was started
by its non-core business divestment in 2009-2010 such as
Seismic & data acquisition. Most of the projects in this
Yellow Pages and focus on its oil & gas services business. In
segments are projects carried over from 2013 with short-
2011-2012, the turnaround programme included overall
term contracts in various project locations mainly in
performance from business aspects, operational and
Sumatera and Java. This segment has fallen dramatically
corporate cultures. The corporate strengthening strategy
since 2013 on the decrease in exploration expenditures and
continue in 2014 and covers operational, organisation and
crude oil price.
internal control function. ELSA also established PT Elnusa
Geosains Indonesia and PT Elnusa Oilfield Services as part of 2. Downstream oil & gas services. These segments are
the company's risk mitigation. conducted via PT Elnusa Petrofin with the main business of
transport. The business is supported by four additional Liquid
Three key business segments. ELSA's business is divided by Fuel Terminals (TBBMs) located in Sulawesi and two TBBMs in
four key segments; Integrated upstream oil & gas services, East Nusa Tenggara in 2014.
Upstream oil & gas support business and Downstream oil &
gas services as per 2014 new management policy on 3. Upstream oil & gas support services. The key contributor of
business segment regrouping. this segment is PT Elnusa Fabrikasi & Konstruksi on fabrication
services, followed by OCTG on threading service segment.
3,500 5.0%
462
3,000 0.0% 412
2,500
2,000 -5.0% 362
1,500 312
-10.0%
1,000 262
-15.0%
500 212
0 -20.0%
162
2013A 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F 2013A 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F
Total Revenue Revenue Growth (%) (YoY) Operating EBIT Pre tax Profit Net Profit
Page 51
Company Focus
Elnusa
Company structure
Management Composition. Despite the board of board of director members have extensive experience in the
directors being relatively new, having just been appointed in oil & gas industry with both local and multi-national
mid-2014, as part of previous management rotation, the companies.
Page 52
Company Focus
Elnusa
Competitive Strengths
Prudent capital allocation. ELSA guarantees that it will
Extensive service offerings. ELSA offers extensive oil & only invest in new equipment after considering the economic
gas services from seismic survey to drilling, which provide feasibility of contracts that it could obtain. This is also part of
contractors with one-stop shopping convenience, which we its strategy to maximise its equipment utilisation rate.
believe provide ELSA with a better edge in contract tenders
relative to sole-service oil & gas service companies. Key Risks
Strong balance sheet. ELSA is oil & gas services company Softer-than-expected contract re-pricing. If the contract
with strongest balance sheet, net cash position. This arms renegotiation process outcome is better than our estimate,
ELSA with better survivability amid the challenging industry. ELSA should book better-than-expected top-line and earnings
growth outcome relative to our forecast.
Reputable clients. ELSA's clients consist of Indonesia's
largest oil & gas contractors, both state-owned and privately Better-than-expected upstream oil & gas investment
owned entities such as Pertamina and Medco Energi. trend and new project roll-outs. If oil & gas investments trend
Exposure to top reputable contractors guarantee healthy mainly on exploration projects and are better than we
receivables and cash flows. Moreover, this also reflects ELSA's expected, ELSA can obtain new contracts and renew its
execution track record in offering satisfactory services, and existing contracts with competitive fees. Hence, ELSA's top-
competitive contract pricing. Having reputable clients also line and earnings growth should also be better than our
implies that ELSA has good receivable quality. forecast.
Page 53
Company Focus
Elnusa
Page 54
Company Focus
Elnusa
Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (239) (277) (200) (259) (217) (206) 8.0%
7.0%
Operating Profit 312 370 560 393 289 247 6.0%
Page 55
Company Focus
Elnusa
Page 56
Company Focus
Elnusa
250.0
Dep. & Amort. 293 229 105 193 208 221
200.0
Tax Paid (75) (95) (142) (66) (134) (82)
150.0
Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) 24 (1) 0 0 0 0 100.0
Page 57
Company Focus
Elnusa
2Q2013
3Q2013
4Q2013
1Q2014
2Q2014
3Q2014
4Q2014
1Q2015
2Q2015
3Q2015
Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 87 0 (87) 0 0 70
Associates & JV Inc 0 0 0 0 0 0 Operating Margin % Net Income Margin %
Growth
Revenue Gth (%) 19.2 (7.8) 19.0 (23.0) (5.0) (7.1)
EBITDA Gth (%) 131.0 (26.0) 28.6 (46.5) 4.4 37.5
Opg Profit Gth (%) 18.3 44.6 94.3 (64.6) 4.4 (35.9)
Net Profit Gth (%) 129.2 (11.4) 12.9 (47.5) 3.6 38.7
Margins
Gross Margins (%) 15.2 16.0 23.7 17.0 15.7 17.9
Opg Profit Margins (%) 8.4 13.2 21.5 9.9 10.8 7.5
Net Profit Margins (%) 11.3 10.9 10.3 7.0 7.7 11.5
Page 58
Company Focus
Elnusa
Valuation
We initiate coverage on ELSA with Fully Valued rating and Our target price implies FY16F PE of 8.0x, lower with our oil
DCF-based target price of Rp205 FY16F PE of 8.0x : and gas companies multiple. We believe ELSA should de-rate
its PE multiple to single digit, and enterprise value (EV) close
Explicit forecast FY15-24E forms the first stage of our to its EBITDA on the back of its uncertainties on its upstream
DCF valuation. We assume ELSA's revenue and earnings projects, in our view. Even we understand that current
come only from existing undergoing contracts. Our valuation looks undemanding, ELSA will face headwinds such
long-term crude oil benchmark price is US$70 per barrel as uncertainties on existing contracts renewal and new
and we believe there will be minimum new contract contracts roll out amid current low crude oil price and slow
rollouts. This allows minimal capex as ELSA requires less Indonesia oil and gas investment climate reform.
new equipment purchase.
For the second stage of the DCF analysis, we employ We believe PE multiple is fair for ELSA multiple for our sanity
exit terminal growth rate of 0% as we only assume the check given ELSA's steadier business model; contract-based
renewal contract from existing projects during our with steady recurring cash flows, moreover, ELSA will only
forecast life-time. allocate capex when it can fully secured a new contract only
WACC assumption of 14.2% with cost of equity and hence, prevent ELSA from balance sheet over-leveraged.
debt assumption of 16.0% (risk free rate of 8.0%, risk ELSA also less exposed to the one-time non-operational
premium of 7.0% and beta 1.1x) and 5.1% (after-tax) items such as operational discontinuation and assets
respectively. impairment as seen in upstream oil and gas contractors.
DCF Valuation
US$mn FY16F FY17F FY18F FY19F FY20F FY21F FY22F FY23F FY24F FY25F
EBITDA 497 468 466 467 471 487 456 468 487 507
(-) Depreciation (208) (221) (233) (246) (267) (288) (303) (325) (346) (367)
EBIT 289 247 233 221 203 199 153 143 141 140
Tax rate 28% (134) (82) (71) (67) (64) (59) (59) (45) (42) (42)
NOPLAT 155 165 162 154 139 139 94 98 99 98
(+) Depreciation 208 221 233 246 267 288 303 325 346 367
(-) Capex (215) (201) (224) (358) (346) (266) (363) (356) (357) (414)
(+/-) Changes in WC 125 (158) 15 12 22 (16) (66) (23) (3) (98)
Free Cash Flow for Firm 273 27 186 54 82 145 (31) 44 85 (47)
NPV 540
Terminal value (87)
Equity 453
Net debt 1,065
Page 59
Industry Focus
Oil & Gas
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STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame)
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FULLY VALUED (negative total return i.e. > -10% over the next 12 months)
SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame)
* Share price appreciation + dividends
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Page
Industry Focus
Oil & Gas
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Page 61