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Financial Reporting, Financial Statement Analysis, and Valuation: A Strategic Perspective, 7th Edition
By James Wahlen, Steve Baginski and Mark Bradshaw
2,064
213
4,683
2,522
1,324
10,806
3,883
22,552
-10,889
732
6,252
2,658
35,994
2,846
5,427
369
0
145
8,787
7,858
7,017
226
23,888
-97
381
30,638
-4,694
-14,122
12,203
35,994
2008
43,251
-20,351
22,900
-15,901
-64
6,935
41
-329
374
7,021
-1,879
5,142
5,142
-3,793
1,349
2008
5,142
1,543
238
573
-202
-549
-345
-68
718
-180
-367
1,002
-506
6,999
98
-2,446
1,282
364
-1,925
-40
-2,667
714
-269
3,719
-649
620
-4,726
-2,541
107
-3,025
-153
1,154
910
2,064
2008
35.0%
26.8%
0
0
657
70
1,422
1
1,553
3.26
1.64
54.77
0
0
0
Financial Statement Analysis Package (FSAP): Version 7.0
Financial Reporting, Financial Statement Analysis, and Valuation: A Strategic Perspective, 7th Edition
By James Wahlen, Steve Baginski and Mark Bradshaw
DATA CHECKS
Assets - Liabilities - Equities 0 0 0 0 0
Net Income (computed) - Net Income (reported) 0 0 0 0 0
Cash Changes 0 0 0 0
In the computations below, a #DIV/0! message indicates that a ratio denominator is zero.
PROFITABILITY FACTORS:
Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
OPERATING PERFORMANCE:
Gross Profit / Revenues 56.7% 56.5% 55.1% 54.3% 52.9%
Operating Profit / Revenues 18.0% 18.4% 18.5% 18.2% 16.0%
Net Income / Revenues 14.4% 12.5% 16.1% 14.3% 11.9%
Comprehensive Income / Revenues 15.7% 12.0% 17.4% 17.6% 3.1%
GROWTH:
Revenue Growth 8.5% 11.3% 7.9% 12.3% 9.6%
Net Income Growth 18.0% -3.2% 38.4% 0.3% -9.1%
Persistent Net Income Growth 14.6% -5.7% 38.4% 0.3% -9.1%
OPERATING CONTROL:
Gross Profit Control Index 100.1% 99.6% 97.7% 98.5% 97.5%
Operating Profit Contol Index 101.4% 102.3% 100.7% 98.2% 88.3%
Profit Margin Decomposition:
Gross Profit Margin 56.7% 56.5% 55.1% 54.3% 52.9%
Operating Profit Index 31.7% 32.5% 33.6% 33.4% 30.3%
Leverage Index 105.5% 106.7% 107.5% 106.4% 101.2%
Tax Index 75.9% 63.9% 80.7% 74.1% 73.2%
Net Profit Margin 14.4% 12.5% 16.1% 14.3% 11.9%
Comprehensive Income Performance:
Comprehensive Income Index 109.0% 95.9% 108.1% 122.9% 26.2%
Comprehensive Income Margin 15.7% 12.0% 17.4% 17.6% 3.1%
RISK FACTORS:
Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
LIQUIDITY:
Current Ratio 1.28 1.11 1.33 1.31 1.23
Quick Ratio 0.95 0.87 0.95 0.89 0.79
Operating Cash Flow to Current Liabilities 76.8% 72.4% 74.8% 94.9% 84.6%
ASSET TURNOVER:
Accounts Receivable Turnover 10.0 10.4 10.1 9.7 9.5
Days Receivables Held 36 35 36 38 38
Inventory Turnover 8.6 8.8 8.7 8.56 8.46
Days Inventory Held 43 42 42 42.66 43.15
Accounts Payable Turnover 7.6 8.1 8.2 7.9 7.6
Days Payables Held 48 45 45 46 48
Net Working Capital Days 31 32 34 34 33
Revenues / Average Net Fixed Assets 3.66 3.87 3.83 3.77 3.78
Cash Turnover 27.9 21.7 20.9 30.8 29.1
Days Sales Held in Cash 13.1 16.8 17.5 11.8 12.5
SOLVENCY:
Total Liabilities / Total Assets 51.7% 55.1% 48.7% 50.2% 66.4%
Total Liabilities / Shareholders' Equity 106.6% 122.0% 94.3% 100.4% 195.8%
LT Debt / LT Capital 15.0% 13.9% 14.2% 19.5% 39.2%
LT Debt / Shareholders' Equity 17.7% 16.2% 16.5% 24.3% 64.4%
Operating Cash Flow to Total Liabilities 36.2% 36.6% 38.0% 43.4% 33.9%
Interest Coverage Ratio (reported amounts) 34.4 25.9 30.2 35.1 22.3
Interest Coverage ratio (recurring amounts) 35.1 25.9 30.2 35.1 22.3
RISK FACTORS:
Bankruptcy Predictors:
Altman Z Score 6.35 5.86 7.29 7.30 5.27
Bankruptcy Probability 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Earnings Manipulation Predictors:
Beneish Earnings Manipulation Score -2.60 -2.69 -2.41 -2.49 -2.75
Earnings Manipulation Probability 0.46% 0.35% 0.80% 0.64% 0.30%
Other Comprehensive Income Items -5.9% -143.8% -373.1% 183.8% -393.1% -256.4%
Comprehensive Income 15.6% -14.8% 55.9% 14.0% -80.6% -19.4%
Assets:
Cash and Cash Equivalents 4.6% 5.4% 5.5% 2.6% 5.7%
Marketable Securities 7.7% 10.0% 3.9% 4.5% 0.6%
Accounts Receivable - Net 10.7% 10.3% 12.4% 12.7% 13.0%
Inventories 5.5% 5.3% 6.4% 6.6% 7.0%
Prepaid Expenses and Other Current Assets 2.3% 1.9% 2.2% 2.9% 3.7%
Deferred Tax Assets - Current 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Other Current Assets (1) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Other Current Assets (2) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Current Assets 30.9% 32.9% 30.5% 29.3% 30.0%
Long Term Investments 11.7% 11.0% 12.3% 12.6% 10.8%
Property, Plant & Equipment - at cost 56.9% 54.0% 63.7% 63.2% 62.7%
<Accumulated Depreciation> -27.8% -26.7% -31.3% -30.8% -30.3%
Amortizable Intangible Assets (net) 2.1% 1.7% 2.1% 2.3% 2.0%
Goodwill and Nonamortizable Intangibles 17.3% 16.3% 19.4% 18.5% 17.4%
Deferred Tax Assets - Noncurrent 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Other Non-Current Assets (1) 8.8% 10.7% 3.3% 4.9% 7.4%
Other Non-Current Assets (2) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Total Assets 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Common Stock + Paid in Capital 12.1% -0.6% -4.7% -21.8% -20.6% -8.0%
Retained Earnings <Deficit> 17.3% 12.7% 17.6% 13.5% 8.7% 13.9%
Accum. Other Comprehensive Income <Loss> -30.1% 18.8% 113.3% -57.6% 393.1% 29.9%
Other Equity Adjustments #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
<Treasury Stock> 45.7% 29.8% 21.5% 33.9% 36.0% 33.1%
Common Shareholders' Equity 14.1% 5.5% 7.9% 12.2% -29.6% 0.5%
Total Liabilities and Equities 10.5% 13.4% -5.7% 15.7% 3.9% 7.3%
RETURN ON ASSETS ANALYSIS (excluding the effects of non-recurring items)
RETURN ON COMMON SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY ANALYSIS (excluding the effects of non-recurring items)
Actuals Forecasts
Year 2006 2007 2008 Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Year +4 Year +5 Year +6
INCOME STATEMENT
Revenues 35,137 39,474 43,251 47,191 51,562 57,502 61,820 67,839 69,875
common size 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 9.1% 9.3% 11.5% 7.5% 9.7%
rate of change 12.3% 9.6% See Forecast Development worksheet for details of revenues forecasts.
<Cost of Goods Sold> -15,762 -18,038 -20,351 -22,321 -24,492 -27,429 -29,612 -32,563 -33,540
common size -44.9% -45.7% -47.1% -47.3% -47.5% -47.7% -47.9% -48.0%
rate of change 14.4% 12.8% Assume slowly increasing cost of goods sold as a percent of sales.
Gross Profit 19,375 21,436 22,900 24,870 27,070 30,074 32,208 35,277 36,335
common size 55.1% 54.3% 52.9% 52.7% 52.5% 52.3% 52.1% 52.0% 52.0%
rate of change 10.6% 6.8% 8.6% 8.8% 11.1% 7.1% 9.5% 3.0%
<Selling, General and Administrative Expenses> -12,711 -14,208 -15,901 -16,517 -18,047 -20,126 -21,637 -23,744 -24,456
common size -36.2% -36.0% -36.8% -35.0% -35.0% -35.0% -35.0% -35.0%
rate of change 11.8% 11.9% Assume steady SG&A expense as a percent of sales.
<Research and Development Expenses> 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Explain assumptions.
<Amortization of Intangible Assets> -162 -58 -64 -64 -63 -62 -60 -56 -58
common size -0.5% -0.1% -0.1% -64.0 -63.0 -62.0 -60.0 -56.0
rate of change -64.2% 10.3% Amounts based on PepsiCo disclosures in Note 4.
<Other Operating Expenses (1)> 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Explain assumptions.
<Other Operating Expenses (2)> 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Explain assumptions.
Other Operating Income (1) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Explain assumptions.
Other Operating Income (2) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Explain assumptions.
Non-Recurring Operating Gains 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Explain assumptions
<Non-Recurring Operating Losses> 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Explain assumptions
Operating Profit 6,502 7,170 6,935 8,289 8,960 9,886 10,511 11,477 11,821
common size 18.5% 18.2% 16.0% 17.6% 17.4% 17.2% 17.0% 16.9% 16.9%
rate of change 10.3% -3.3% 19.5% 8.1% 10.3% 6.3% 9.2% 3.0%
Interest Income 173 125 41 73 81 90 98 107 110
common size 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
rate of change -27.7% -67.2% Interest rate earned on average balance in cash and marketable securities.
<Interest Expense> -239 -224 -329 -493 -531 -579 -626 -677 -697
common size -0.7% -0.6% -0.8% -5.8% -5.8% -5.8% -5.8% -5.8%
rate of change -6.3% 46.9% Interest rate paid on average balance in financial liabilities.
Income <Loss> from Equity Affiliates 553 560 374 480 509 539 572 606 624
common size 1.6% 1.4% 0.9% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0%
rate of change 1.3% -33.2% Assume expected return of 12% on investments in noncontrolled affilates.
Other Income or Gains 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Explain assumptions
<Other Expenses or Losses> 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Explain assumptions
Income before Tax 6,989 7,631 7,021 8,348 9,019 9,935 10,555 11,513 11,858
common size 19.9% 19.3% 16.2% 17.7% 17.5% 17.3% 17.1% 17.0% 17.0%
rate of change 9.2% -8.0% 18.9% 8.0% 10.2% 6.2% 9.1% 3.0%
<Income Tax Expense> -1,347 -1,973 -1,879 -2,237 -2,417 -2,663 -2,829 -3,085 -3,178
common size -3.8% -5.0% -4.3% -26.8% -26.8% -26.8% -26.8% -26.8%
rate of change 46.5% -4.8% Effective income tax rate assumptions.
<Minority Interest in Earnings> 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Explain assumptions
Income <Loss> from Discontinued Operations 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Explain assumptions
Extraordinary Gains <Losses> 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Explain assumptions
Changes in Acctg. Principles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Explain assumptions
Net Income (computed) 5,642 5,658 5,142 6,111 6,602 7,273 7,726 8,427 8,680
common size 16.1% 14.3% 11.9% 12.9% 12.8% 12.6% 12.5% 12.4% 12.4%
rate of change 0.3% -9.1% 18.8% 8.0% 10.2% 6.2% 9.1% 3.0%
Other Comprehensive Income Items 456 1,294 -3,793 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 1.3% 3.3% -8.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change 183.8% -393.1% Assume random walk.
Comprehensive Income 6,098 6,952 1,349 6,111 6,602 7,273 7,726 8,427 8,680
common size 17.4% 17.6% 3.1% 12.9% 12.8% 12.6% 12.5% 12.4% 12.4%
rate of change 14.0% -80.6% 353.0% 8.0% 10.2% 6.2% 9.1% 3.0%
FSAP OUTPUT: FINANCIAL STATEMENT FORECASTS
Analyst Name: Wahlen, Baginski & Bradshaw
Company Name: PepsiCo
Actuals Forecasts
2006 2007 2008 Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Year +4 Year +5 Year +6
BALANCE SHEET
ASSETS:
Cash and Cash Equivalents 1,651 910 2,064 1,551 1,695 1,890 2,032 2,230 2,297
common size 5.5% 2.6% 5.7% 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0
rate of change -44.9% 126.8% Assume ending cash balances equal to 12 days sales.
Marketable Securities 1,171 1,571 213 1,034 1,130 1,260 1,355 1,487 1,531
common size 3.9% 4.5% 0.6% 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
rate of change 34.2% -86.4% Assume ending balances equal to 8 days sales.
Accounts Receivable - Net 3,725 4,389 4,683 5,143 5,593 6,380 6,492 7,633 7,862
common size 12.4% 12.7% 13.0% 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0
rate of change 17.8% 6.7% Assume 38 days to collect sales in accounts receivable.
Inventories 1,926 2,290 2,522 2,730 3,033 3,421 3,546 4,116 4,239
common size 6.4% 6.6% 7.0% 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5
rate of change 18.9% 10.1% Assume average inventory turnover of roughly 8.5 times per year.
Prepaid Expenses and Other Current Assets 657 991 1,324 1,445 1,578 1,760 1,892 2,077 2,139
common size 2.2% 2.9% 3.7% 9.1% 9.3% 11.5% 7.5% 9.7%
rate of change 50.8% 33.6% Assume growth with sales.
Deferred Tax Assets - Current 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Assume steady growth.
Other Current Assets (1) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Assume steady growth.
Other Current Assets (2) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Assume steady growth.
Current Assets 9,130 10,151 10,806 11,904 13,029 14,712 15,318 17,543 18,069
common size 30.5% 29.3% 30.0% 30.9% 31.3% 32.1% 31.5% 32.8% 32.8%
rate of change 11.2% 6.5% 10.2% 9.5% 12.9% 4.1% 14.5% 3.0%
Long Term Investments 3,690 4,354 3,883 4,116 4,363 4,625 4,902 5,196 5,352
common size 12.3% 12.6% 10.8% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
rate of change 18.0% -10.8% Assume steady growth.
Property, Plant & Equipment - at cost 19,058 21,896 22,552 24,723 27,662 30,939 34,463 38,330 39,480
common size 63.7% 63.2% 62.7%
rate of change 14.9% 3.0% PP&E assumptions - see schedule in forecast development
<Accumulated Depreciation> -9,371 -10,668 -10,889 -12,471 -14,241 -16,220 -18,426 -20,878 -21,504
common size -31.3% -30.8% -30.3%
rate of change 13.8% 2.1% See depreciation schedule in forecast development worksheet.
Amortizable Intangible Assets (net) 637 796 732 668 605 543 483 427 440
common size 2.1% 2.3% 2.0% -64.0 -63.0 -62.0 -60.0 -56.0
rate of change 25.0% -8.0% Assume amortization per PepsiCo disclosures in Note 4; assume no new investments.
Goodwill and Nonamortizable Intangibles 5,806 6,417 6,252 6,822 7,453 8,312 8,936 9,806 10,100
common size 19.4% 18.5% 17.4% 9.1% 9.3% 11.5% 7.5% 9.7%
rate of change 10.5% -2.6% Assume growth with sales.
Deferred Tax Assets - Noncurrent 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Assume steady state growth.
Other Non-Current Assets (1) 980 1,682 2,658 2,738 2,820 2,904 2,992 3,081 3,174
common size 3.3% 4.9% 7.4% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
rate of change 71.6% 58.0% Assume steady growth.
Other Non-Current Assets (2) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Assume steady state growth.
Total Assets 29,930 34,628 35,994 38,499 41,692 45,815 48,669 53,506 55,111
common size 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
rate of change 15.7% 3.9% 7.0% 8.3% 9.9% 6.2% 9.9% 3.0%
LIABILITIES:
Accounts Payable - Trade 2,102 2,562 2,846 3,080 3,442 3,875 3,947 4,768 4,911
common size 7.0% 7.4% 7.9% 48.0 48.0 48.0 48.0 48.0
rate of change 21.9% 11.1% Assume a steady payment period consistent with recent years.
Current Accrued Liabilities 4,394 5,040 5,427 5,921 6,470 7,215 7,757 8,512 8,768
common size 14.7% 14.6% 15.1% 9.1% 9.3% 11.5% 7.5% 9.7%
rate of change 14.7% 7.7% Assume growth with SG&A expenses, which grow with sales.
Notes Payable and Short Term Debt 274 0 369 385 417 458 487 535 551
common size 0.9% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
rate of change -100.0% #DIV/0! Assume 1.0 percent of total assets.
Current Maturities of Long Term Debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Current maturities of long-term debt per long-term debt note.
Deferred Tax Liabilities - Current 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Assume steady state growth.
Income Taxes Payable 90 151 145 154 167 183 195 214 220
common size 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
rate of change 67.8% -4.0% Assume a steady percentage of total assets.
Other Current Liabilities (1) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Assume steady state growth.
Other Current Liabilities (2) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Assume steady state growth.
Current Liabilities 6,860 7,753 8,787 9,540 10,495 11,731 12,385 14,029 14,450
common size 22.9% 22.4% 24.4% 24.8% 25.2% 25.6% 25.4% 26.2% 26.2%
rate of change 13.0% 13.3% 8.6% 10.0% 11.8% 5.6% 13.3% 3.0%
Long Term Debt 2,550 4,203 7,858 8,405 9,102 10,002 10,625 11,681 12,031
common size 8.5% 12.1% 21.8% 21.8% 21.8% 21.8% 21.8% 21.8%
rate of change 64.8% 87.0% Assume steady percent of total assets.
Long Term Accrued Liabilities 4,624 4,792 7,017 7,656 8,365 9,329 10,030 11,006 11,336
common size 15.4% 13.8% 19.5% 9.1% 9.3% 11.5% 7.5% 9.7%
rate of change 3.6% 46.4% Assume growth with SG&A expenses, which grow with sales.
Deferred Tax Liabilities - Noncurrent 528 646 226 242 262 288 306 336 346
common size 1.8% 1.9% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
rate of change 22.3% -65.0% Assume steady percent of total assets.
Other Non-Current Liabilities (1) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Assume steady state growth.
Other Non-Current Liabilities (2) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Assume steady state growth.
Total Liabilities 14,562 17,394 23,888 25,843 28,224 31,350 33,345 37,052 38,164
common size 48.7% 50.2% 66.4% 67.1% 67.7% 68.4% 68.5% 69.2% 69.2%
rate of change 19.4% 37.3% 8.2% 9.2% 11.1% 6.4% 11.1% 3.0%
SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Minority interest assumptions
Preferred Stock -79 -91 -97 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change 15.2% 6.6% Preferred stock assumptions
Common Stock + Paid in Capital 614 480 381 408 441 485 515 566 583
common size 2.1% 1.4% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1%
rate of change -21.8% -20.6% Assume steady percent of total assets.
Retained Earnings <Deficit> 24,837 28,184 30,638 33,565 36,842 40,296 43,624 47,203 48,479
common size 83.0% 81.4% 85.1%
rate of change 13.5% 8.7% Add net income and subtract dividends; see dividends forecast box below.
Accum. Other Comprehensive Income <Loss> -2,246 -952 -4,694 -4,694 -4,694 -4,694 -4,694 -4,694 -4,694
common size -7.5% -2.7% -13.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change -57.6% 393.1% Add accumulated other comprehensive income items from income statement
Other Equity Adjustments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
common size 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
rate of change #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Other equity adjustments assumptions
<Treasury Stock> -7,758 -10,387 -14,122 -16,622 -19,122 -21,622 -24,122 -26,622 -27,421
common size -25.9% -30.0% -39.2% -2500 -2500 -2500 -2500 -2500
rate of change 33.9% 36.0% Treasury stock repurchases, net of treasury stock reissues.
Common Shareholders' Equity 15,447 17,325 12,203.0 12,656.1 13,467.4 14,465.3 15,323.5 16,453.6 16,947
common size 51.6% 50.0% 33.9% 32.9% 32.3% 31.6% 31.5% 30.8% 30.8%
rate of change 12.2% -29.6% 3.7% 6.4% 7.4% 5.9% 7.4% 3.0%
Total Liabilities and Equities 29,930 34,628 35,994 38,499 41,692 45,815 48,669 53,506 55,111
common size 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
rate of change 15.7% 3.9% 7.0% 8.3% 9.9% 6.2% 9.9% 3.0%
Check figures: Balance Sheet A=L+OE? 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Initial adjustment needed to balance the balance sheet:
-444 -269 -517 -762 -985 -3,426
Actuals Forecasts
IMPLIED STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS 2007 2008 Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Year +4 Year +5 Year +6
Net Income 5,658 5,142 6,111 6,602 7,273 7,726 8,427 8,680
Add back Depreciation Expense (net) 1,297 221 1,582 1,770 1,980 2,205 2,453 626
Add back Amortization Expense (net) 58 64 64 63 62 60 56 58
<Increase> Decrease in Receivables - Net -664 -294 -460 -450 -787 -112 -1,141 -229
<Increase> Decrease in Inventories -364 -232 -208 -303 -388 -125 -569 -123
<Increase> Decrease in Prepaid Expenses -334 -333 -121 -134 -182 -132 -184 -62
<Increase> Decrease in Other Curr. Assets (1) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
<Increase> Decrease in Other Curr. Assets (2) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Increase <Decrease> in Accounts Payable - Trade 460 284 234 362 433 72 821 143
Increase <Decrease> in Current Accrued Liabilities 646 387 494 548 745 542 755 255
Increase <Decrease> in Income Taxes Payable 61 -6 9 13 16 11 19 6
Increase <Decrease> in Other Current Liabilities (1) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Increase <Decrease> in Other Current Liabilities (2) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net Change in Deferred Tax Assets and Liabilities 118 -420 16 20 26 18 30 10
Increase <Decrease> in Long-Term Accrued Liabilities 168 2,225 639 709 964 700 977 330
Increase <Decrease> in Other Non-Current Liabilities (1) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Increase <Decrease> in Other Non-Current Liabilities (2) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net Cash Flows from Operations 7,104 7,038 8,360 9,201 10,142 10,966 11,644 9,694
<Increase> Decrease in Prop., Plant, & Equip. at cost -2,838 -656 -2,171 -2,939 -3,278 -3,524 -3,867 -1,150
<Increase> Decrease in Marketable Securities -400 1,358 -821 -96 -130 -95 -132 -45
<Increase> Decrease in Investment Securities -664 471 -233 -247 -262 -277 -294 -156
<Increase> Decrease in Amortizable Intangible Assets (net) -217 0 0 0 0 0 0 -70
<Increase> Decrease in Goodwill and Nonamort. Intang. -611 165 -570 -632 -859 -624 -870 -294
<Increase> Decrease in Other Non-Current Assets (1) -702 -976 -80 -82 -85 -87 -90 -92
<Increase> Decrease in Other Non-Current Assets (2) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net Cash Flows from Investing Activities -5,432 362 -3,874 -3,996 -4,613 -4,607 -5,253 -1,808
Increase <Decrease> in Short-Term Debt -274 369 16 32 41 29 48 16
Increase <Decrease> in Long-Term Debt 1,653 3,655 547 697 900 623 1,056 350
Increase <Decrease> in Minority Interest and Preferred Stock -12 -6 97 0 0 0 0 0
Increase <Decrease> in Common Stock + Paid in Capital -134 -99 27 34 44 30 51 17
Increase <Decrease> in Accum. OCI and Other Equity Adjs. 1,294 -3,742 0 0 0 0 0 0
Increase <Decrease> in Treasury Stock -2,629 -3,735 -2,500 -2,500 -2,500 -2,500 -2,500 -799
Dividends -2,311 -2,688 -3,184 -3,325 -3,818 -4,398 -4,848 -7,405
Net Cash Flows from Financing Activities -2,413 -6,246 -4,998 -5,062 -5,333 -6,217 -6,193 -7,820
Net Change in Cash -741 1,154 -513 144 195 142 198 67
Check Figure:
Net change in cash - Change in cash balance 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FSAP OUTPUT: FINANCIAL STATEMENT FORECASTS
Analyst Name: Wahlen, Baginski & Bradshaw
Company Name: PepsiCo
Actuals Forecasts
2006 2007 2008 Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Year +4 Year +5 Year +6
FORECAST VALIDITY CHECK DATA:
GROWTH
Revenue Growth Rates: 7.9% 12.3% 9.6% 9.1% 9.3% 11.5% 7.5% 9.7% 3.0%
Net Income Growth Rates: 38.4% 0.3% -9.1% 18.8% 8.0% 10.2% 6.2% 9.1% 3.0%
Total Asset Growth Rates -5.7% 15.7% 3.9% 7.0% 8.3% 9.9% 6.2% 9.9% 3.0%
ASSET TURNOVER:
Revenues / Avg. Accounts Receivable 10.1 9.7 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.0
COGS / Average Inventory 8.7 8.6 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.0
Revenues / Average Fixed Assets 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.1 3.9
LIQUIDITY:
Current Ratio 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3
Quick Ratio 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
SOLVENCY:
Total Liabilities / Total Assets 48.7% 50.2% 66.4% 67.1% 67.7% 68.4% 68.5% 69.2% 69.2%
Total Liabilities / Total Equity 94.3% 100.4% 195.8% 204.2% 209.6% 216.7% 217.6% 225.2% 225.2%
Interest Coverage Ratio 30.2 35.1 22.3 17.9 18.0 18.1 17.9 18.0 18.0
Financial Statement Analysis Package (FSAP): Version 7.0
Financial Reporting, Financial Statement Analysis, and Valuation: A Strategic Perspective, 7th Edition FSAP User Guides:
By James Wahlen, Steve Baginski and Mark Bradshaw
The FSAP user should only enter data in the blue-font ce
The FSAP User Guides appear in column K to the right. Forecast Development:
This Forecast Development spreadsheet provides work spac
- build detailed sales revenue forecasts
- build forecasts of capital expenditures, property, plant and
- build detailed forecasts of other financial statement amoun
Analyst Name: Wahlen, Baginski & Bradshaw
Company Name: PepsiCo
It is not necessary to use this spreadsheet to build financial s
spreadsheet. If you use this spreadsheet to build more detail
forecast amounts to the appropriate cells in the financial state
Sales Revenue Forecast Development
Actuals Forecasts
Year 2006 2007 2008 Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Year +4 Year +5
Revenues 35,137 39,474 43,251 47,191 51,562 57,502 61,820 67,839 This sales revenue forecast development schedule was deve
rate of change 12.3% 9.6% 9.1% 9.3% 11.5% 7.5% 9.7%
10.9% Sales growth rate assumptions.
Sales Forecasts for PepsiCo:
Year 2006 2007 2008 Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Year +4 Year +5
Frito-Lay North America 10,844 11,586 12,507 13,269 14,077 15,221 15,843 16,808
Quaker Foods North America 1,769 1,860 1,902 1,979 2,058 2,183 2,228 2,317
Latin America Foods 3,972 4,872 5,895 6,660 7,524 8,663 9,602 10,848
PepsiCo Americas Foods 16,585 18,318 20,304 21,907 23,659 26,067 27,673 29,974
PepsiCo Americas Beverages 10,362 11,090 10,937 11,603 12,310 13,310 13,855 14,698
United Kingdom & Europe 4,750 5,492 6,435 7,168 7,984 9,063 9,905 11,032
Middle East, Africa & Asia 3,440 4,574 5,575 6,513 7,610 9,061 10,387 12,135
PepsiCo International 8,190 10,066 12,010 13,681 15,593 18,125 20,291 23,167
PepsiCo Total Net Revenues 35,137 39,474 43,251 47,191 51,562 57,502 61,820 67,839
growth rates 12.3% 9.6% 9.1% 9.3% 11.5% 7.5% 9.7%
PepsiCo Americas Foods 16,585 18,318 20,304 21,907 23,659 26,067 27,673 29,974
growth rates 10.4% 10.8% 7.9% 8.0% 10.2% 6.2% 8.3%
compound growth rate 10.6%
Frito-Lay North America 10,844 11,586 12,507 13,269 14,077 15,221 15,843 16,808
growth rates 6.8% 7.9% 6.1% 6.1% 8.1% 4.1% 6.1%
compound growth rate 7.4%
compound growth in volume 1.5% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
compound growth in prices 5.6% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
foreign exchange and acquisitions 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
53rd week effect 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% -1.9% 0.0%
Quaker Foods North America 1,769 1,860 1,902 1,979 2,058 2,183 2,228 2,317
growth rates 5.1% 2.3% 4.0% 4.0% 6.0% 2.1% 4.0%
compound growth rate 3.7%
compound growth in volume 0.2% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
compound growth in prices 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
foreign exchange and acquisitions 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
53rd week effect 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% -1.9% 0.0%
Latin America Foods 3,972 4,872 5,895 6,660 7,524 8,663 9,602 10,848
growth rates 22.7% 21.0% 13.0% 13.0% 15.1% 10.8% 13.0%
compound growth rate 21.8%
compound growth in volume 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
compound growth in prices 7.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
foreign exchange and acquisitions 11.1% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
53rd week effect 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% -1.9% 0.0%
PepsiCo Americas Beverages 10,362 11,090 10,937 11,603 12,310 13,310 13,855 14,698
growth rates 7.0% -1.4% 6.1% 6.1% 8.1% 4.1% 6.1%
compound growth rate 2.7%
compound growth in volume -2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
compound growth in prices 4.4% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
foreign exchange and acquisitions 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
53rd week effect 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% -1.9% 0.0%
PepsiCo International 8,190 10,066 12,010 13,681 15,593 18,125 20,291 23,167
growth rates 22.9% 19.3% 13.9% 14.0% 16.2% 12.0% 14.2%
compound growth rate 21.1%
United Kingdom & Europe 4,750 5,492 6,435 7,168 7,984 9,063 9,905 11,032
growth rates 15.6% 17.2% 11.4% 11.4% 13.5% 9.3% 11.4%
compound growth rate 16.4%
compound growth in volume 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
compound growth in prices 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
foreign exchange and acquisitions 9.6% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
53rd week effect 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% -1.9% 0.0%
Middle East, Africa & Asia 3,440 4,574 5,575 6,513 7,610 9,061 10,387 12,135
growth rates 33.0% 21.9% 16.8% 16.8% 19.1% 14.6% 16.8%
compound growth rate 27.3%
compound growth in volume 12.5% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%
compound growth in prices 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
foreign exchange and acquisitions 9.8% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
53rd week effect 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% -1.9% 0.0%
Forecast Development: Capital Expenditures, Property, Plant and Equipment, and Depreciation
Capital Expenditures: CAPEX Forecasts: The Capital Expenditures schedule permits the FSAP user to
2006 2007 2008 Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Year +4 Year +5
CAPEX:
PP&E Acquired 2,068 2,430 2,446
PP&E Sold -49 -47 -98
Net CAPEX 2,019 2,383 2,348 2,171 2,939 3,278 3,524 3,867
Property, Plant and Equipment and Depreciation Property, Plant and Equipment and Depreciation Forecasts: The Property, Plant & Equipment and Depreciation schedule
FSAP automatically links the projected amounts for gross PP
PP&E at cost: 2006 2007 2008 Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Year +4 Year +5
Beg. balance at cost: 22,552 24,723 27,662 30,939 34,463
Add: CAPEX forecasts from above: 2,171 2,939 3,278 3,524 3,867
End balance at cost: 19,058 21,896 22,552 24,723 27,662 30,939 34,463 38,330
Accumulated Depreciation:
Beg. Balance: -10,889 -12,471 -14,241 -16,220 -18,426
Subtract: Depreciation expense forecasts from below: -1,582 -1,770 -1,980 -2,205 -2,453
End Balance: -9,371 -10,668 -10,889 -12,471 -14,241 -16,220 -18,426 -20,878
PP&E - net 9,687 11,228 11,663 12,252 13,421 14,719 16,038 17,452
PPE at Cost 19,058 21,896 22,552 FSAP automatically estimates the estimated useful life for dep
Avg Depreciable PPE 20,477 22,224
Depreciation Expense 1,182 1,304 1,422
Implied Avg. Useful Life in Years 15.7 15.6
Useful Life Forecast Assumption: 15.6
(in years)
should only enter data in the blue-font cells shaded light green.
y to use this spreadsheet to build financial statement forecasts in the FSAP Forecasts
you use this spreadsheet to build more detailed forecasts, the you will need to link these
s to the appropriate cells in the financial statements in the FSAP Forecasts spreadsheet.
ue forecast development schedule was developed specifically for PepsiCo. FSAP users who wish to develop detailed sales forecasts of other firms should adapt this schedule as necessary to incorporate the other firms' various soruces of revenue
enditures schedule permits the FSAP user to build detailed forecasts of future capital expenditures as a percent of future revenues, gross PP&E or any other reasonable basis for these forecast assumptions.
ant & Equipment and Depreciation schedule automatically computes for the FSAP detailed forecasts of future PP&E based on exisitng PP&E plus projected future capital expenditures. The Depreciation expense schedule automatically computes fu
ally links the projected amounts for gross PP&E, accumulated depreciation, depreciation expense, and capital expenditures into the financial statements in the Forecasts worksheet.
n shows depreciation expense based on the exisiting depreciable PP&E at the start of the forecast period. The computation assumes straight line depreciation methods, zero salvage value, and the estimated useful life computed below. .
n shows the amount of gross PP&E still to be depreciated. Once this amount falls to zero, depreciation is complete.The FSAP user should be sure that these amounts are not negative.
ally computes a new depreciation schedule for each year's capital expenditures, which are included in PP&E. These computations assume straight line depreciation methods and zero salvage value. The computations use the extimated useful life a
ally estimates the estimated useful life for depreciation purposes by dividing the average amount of gross depreciable PP&E by depreciation expense. This estimate assume straight line depreciation and zero salvage value.
other firms' various soruces of revenue.
nse schedule automatically computes future depreciation expense based on exisitng depreciable PP&E future capital expenditures. The expected useful life for depreciation purposes is computed below.
o salvage value.
Financial Statement Analysis Package (FSAP): Version 7.0
Financial Reporting, Financial Statement Analysis, and Valuation: A Strategic Perspective, 7th Edition FSAP User Guides:
By James Wahlen, Steve Baginski and Mark Bradshaw
The FSAP user should only enter data in the
The FSAP User Guides appear in column L to the right. A Comment on Entering Valuation Paramete
The FSAP user must enter valuation paramete
DATA CHECKS - Estimated Value per Share
Dividend Based Valuation $ 83.03 FSAP automatically references the estimated v
Free Cash Flow Valuation $ 83.03 FSAP automatically references the estimated v
Residual Income Valuation $ 83.03 FSAP automatically references the estimated v
Residual Income Market-to-Book Valuation $ 83.03 FSAP automatically references the estimated v
Free Cash Flow for All Debt and Equity Valuation $ 83.99 FSAP automatically references the estimated v
Check: All Estimated Value per Share amounts should be the same, with the possible exception of the share value from the Free Cash Flow for All Debt and Equity model. See additional comments in cell L26
Long-run growth assumption used in forecasts 3.0% Long Run Growth Parameters:
Long-run growth assumption used in valuation. 3.0% Enter the long run growth rate assumption for u
(Both long-run growth assumptions should be the same.)
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders 3,015.3 3,324.5 3,818.5 4,398.5 4,848.3 FSAP uses implied dividends for common shar
Less: Common Stock Issues -26.5 -33.8 -43.7 -30.2 -51.2 FSAP uses the change in common stock plus p
Plus: Common Stock Repurchases 2,500.0 2,500.0 2,500.0 2,500.0 2,500.0 FSAP uses the change in treasury stock from t
Dividends to Common Equity 5,488.8 5,790.7 6,274.8 6,868.3 7,297.1 8,186.50 These figures represent the forecasted total div
Present Value Factors 0.922 0.849 0.783 0.722 0.665 These present value factors are based on the e
PV Net Dividends 5,058.8 4,919.0 4,912.6 4,956.0 4,852.9
Sum of PV Net Dividends 24,699.3 The sum of the present value of net dividends
PV of Continuing Value 98,988.9 The present value of continuing value dividend
Total 123,688.2
Adjust to midyear discounting 1.043 This adjustment corrects for over-discounting.
Total PV Dividends 128,945.0
Shares Outstanding 1,553.0
Estimated Value per Share $ 83.03 The estimated value per share.
Net Cash Flow from Operations 8,359.9 9,201.1 10,141.5 10,965.8 11,643.5 9,694.4 FSAP uses net cash flows from operations from
Decrease (Increase) in Cash Required for Operations 512.5 -143.7 -195.3 -141.9 -197.9 -66.9 The analyst should adjust free cash flows for c
Net Cash Flow from Investing -3,874.4 -3,995.7 -4,612.9 -4,607.1 -5,252.9 -1,807.5 FSAP uses net cash flows from investing from
Net CFs from Debt Financing 562.8 729.0 941.5 651.5 1,104.4 366.5 FSAP uses net cash flows from debt financing
Net CFs into Financial Assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 This row enables the analyst to adjust for any i
Net CFs - Pref. Stock and Minority Int. -72.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 FSAP uses net cash flows from preferred stock
Free Cash Flow for Common Equity 5,488.8 5,790.7 6,274.8 6,868.3 7,297.1 8,186.5 These figures represent the forecasted total fre
Present Value Factors 0.922 0.849 0.783 0.722 0.665 These present value factors are based on the e
PV Free Cash Flows 5,058.8 4,919.0 4,912.6 4,956.0 4,852.9
Sum of PV Free Cash Flows 24,699.3 The sum of the present value of free cash flow
PV of Continuing Value 98,988.9 The present value of continuing free cash flows
Total 123,688.2
Adjust to midyear discounting 1.043 This adjustment corrects for over-discounting.
Total PV Free Cash Flows to Equity 128,945.0
Shares Outstanding 1,553.0
Estimated Value per Share $ 83.03 The estimated value per share.
Required Earnings 1,037.3 1,075.8 1,144.7 1,229.5 1,302.5 1,398.6 FSAP computes required earnings as the equit
Residual Income 4,904.6 5,526.3 6,128.0 6,496.9 7,124.8 7,281.5 Residual income is the difference between pro
Present Value Factors 0.922 0.849 0.783 0.722 0.665 These present value factors are based on the e
PV Residual Income 4,520.4 4,694.4 4,797.6 4,688.0 4,738.3
Sum of PV Residual Income 23,438.7 The sum of the present value of residual incom
PV of Continuing Value 88,046.5 The present value of continuing residual incom
Total 111,485.2
Add: Beginning Book Value of Equity 12,203.0
PV of Equity 123,688.2
Adjust to midyear discounting 1.043 This adjustment corrects for over-discounting.
Total PV of Equity 128,945.0
Shares Outstanding 1,553.0
Estimated Value per Share $ 83.03 The estimated value per share.
Implied ROCE 48.7% 52.2% 54.0% 53.4% 55.0% 52.8% FSAP computes the implied ROCE, dividing co
Residual ROCE 40.2% 43.7% 45.5% 44.9% 46.5% 44.3% FSAP computes the residual ROCE as implied
Cumulative growth factor in common equity as of t-1 100.0% 103.7% 110.4% 118.5% 125.6% 134.8% FSAP computes the cumulative growth factor in
Residual ROCE times cumulative growth 40.2% 45.3% 50.2% 53.2% 58.4% 59.7% The product of residual ROCE and the cumula
Present Value Factors 0.922 0.849 0.783 0.722 0.665 These present value factors are based on the e
PV Residual ROCE times growth 0.370 0.385 0.393 0.384 0.388
Sum of PV Residual ROCE times growth 1.92 The sum of the present value of residual ROCE
PV of Continuing Value 7.22 The present value of residual ROCE times cum
Total PV Residual ROCE 9.14
Add one for book value of equity at t-1 1.0
Sum 10.14
Adjust to mid-year discounting 1.043 This adjustment corrects for over-discounting.
Implied Market-to-Book Ratio 10.567 The implied market-to-book value ratio.
Times Beginning Book Value of Equity 12,203.0
Total PV of Equity 128,945.0
Shares Outstanding 1,553.0
Estimated Value per Share $ 83.03 The estimated value per share.
Sensitivity analysis for the market-to-book approach should be identical to that of the residual income approach.