Duke University

STA130 Department of Statistical Science Prob/Stat in Engineering

Lab #2
Due: Friday, September 11, 2015, in your lab section

Name:

NetID:

STA130 Lab Section:

Craps
The game of craps is played with two dice. On the first roll:
You lose (crap out) if you get a total of 2, 3, or 12
You win if you get a total of 7 or 11
Otherwise, the total becomes your point, and you continue to roll the dice
On your subsequent rolls:
You win if you roll a total that matches your point before you roll a 7
Otherwise, you lose by rolling a 7 before you match your point

Assignment
The experiment
In lab, form groups of two (or three, if needed), and play craps (you can use https://www.random.org/dice
to simulate random dice rolling). Take turns being the shooter (dice roller/player), while the other person
is the house/casino that keeps the player honest. Make sure each person plays 10 times, and record whether
they win or lose. Based on your record, what is your probability of winning at craps?
Once youre done, write your results on the board. When everybody is finished, you should use the data
collected to make a more informed estimate for the probability of winning.

The theory
Next, work with your partner(s) to calculate the theoretical probability of winning at craps. The following
will help you arrive at a solution:
Let W be the event you win. Let Ti be the event that you get a total of i on the first roll (the point),
for i = 2, 3, . . . , 12.
Are the events T2 , T3 , . . . , T12 mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive (in the sense that
their union is the whole sample space)?
Complete the following equation (using conditional probabilities):
12
X 12
X
P r(W ) = P r(W Ti ) = .
i=2 i=2

Find the P r(Ti )s. Recall, from lecture, the number of ways that 2 dice can be rolled.

i 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

P r(Ti )

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STA130 Department of Statistical Science Prob/Stat in Engineering

At this point, we need to evaluate whether weve already won or lost (recall from above: 2, 3, 12 =
lose; 7, 11 = win; 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10 = keep rolling). What are the conditional probabilities of winning,
P r(W |Ti )?

i 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

P r(W |Ti )

It helps here to consider an example. Lets say we have a point of 4.

What are the rolls that will stop play?

Which of those rolls will result in a win?

So the probability of winning given a point of 4 is .

So now use the equation you developed above with the tables you just filled out to find the total
probability of winning at craps.

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STA130 Department of Statistical Science Prob/Stat in Engineering

The simulation
Finally, and not necessarily in lab, develop a Matlab function to simulate a game of craps and record whether
you win or lose. Simulate 1000 games and use the outcomes to estimate the probability of winning (P r(W )).
Do this 1000 times to get 1000 estimates of P r(W ).

Deliverables
Make a histogram of your 1000 simulated estimates of P r(W ). Compare these to your experimental and
theoretical estimates by adding a vertical line to the histogram for each of these (and make sure to indicate
somewhere which line is which).
Discuss in a paragraph or two: Which method of finding the probability of winning do you trust more?
Why? What are the pros and cons of each method? Is craps a fair game (does neither party, house or player,
have an advantage)? Use your work here to support your claim.
Include your record for the in-lab experiment, and also your work for finding the theoretical probability
of winning. Also, make sure to have your name, NetID, lab section, and date written on your assignment
header. Page Limit: 2 pages.

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