Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
1 Jan 37
2 Feb 40 Sales Time Series
3 Mar 41
60
4 Apr 37
5 May 45 50
6 June 50
7 July 43 40
8 Aug 47
Sales
30
9 Sep 56
10 Oct 52 20
11 Nov 55
12 Dec 54 10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Time
9 10 11 12
Trend Model (Fit a line to the time series data)
Squared Percent
period month sales forecast error ABS(error) Error Error Foreca
1 Jan 37 36.94 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.00 60
2 Feb 40 38.66 1.34 1.34 1.80 0.03
50
3 Mar 41 40.38 0.62 0.62 0.38 0.02
4 Apr 37 42.11 -5.11 5.11 26.08 0.14 40
Sales
5 May 45 43.83 1.17 1.17 1.37 0.03 30
6 June 50 45.55 4.45 4.45 19.76 0.09 20
7 July 43 47.28 -4.28 4.28 18.31 0.10 10
8 Aug 47 49.00 -2.00 2.00 4.01 0.04 0
9 Sep 56 50.73 5.27 5.27 27.81 0.09 1 2 3 4 5 6
10 Oct 52 52.45 -0.45 0.45 0.20 0.01
11 Nov 55 54.17 0.83 0.83 0.68 0.02 Tim
12 Dec 54 55.90 -1.90 1.90 3.60 0.04
0.00 2.29 8.67 0.05
BIAS MAD MSE MAPE
Method 1: Use Excel's function
a= 35.21212
b= 1.723776
60
40
Sales
30
20
10
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Time
Question: What are the forecasts for next January, Febary, and April?
Forecast vs. Actual
60
50
40
Sales
30 sales
20 forecast
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Time
Nave Model
Squared Percent
period month sales forecast error ABS(error) Error Error Forecast vs
1 Jan 37 - - - - -
60
2 Feb 40 37.00 3.00 3.00 9.00 0.08
3 Mar 41 40.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.02 40
Sales
4 Apr 37 41.00 -4.00 4.00 16.00 0.11
5 May 45 37.00 8.00 8.00 64.00 0.18 20
6 June 50 45.00 5.00 5.00 25.00 0.10 0
7 July 43 50.00 -7.00 7.00 49.00 0.16 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 Aug 47 43.00 4.00 4.00 16.00 0.09
9 Sep 56 47.00 9.00 9.00 81.00 0.16 Time
10 Oct 52 56.00 -4.00 4.00 16.00 0.08
11 Nov 55 52.00 3.00 3.00 9.00 0.05
12 Dec 54 55.00 -1.00 1.00 1.00 0.02
1.55 4.45 26.09 0.09
BIAS MAD MSE MAPE
40
Sales
sales
20 forecast
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Time
Moving Average Model
3-month 4-month
MA MA
period month sales forecast error ABS(error) forecast error ABS(error)
1 Jan 37 - - - - - -
2 Feb 40 - - - - - -
3 Mar 41 - - - - - -
4 Apr 37 39.33 -2.33 2.33 - - -
5 May 45 39.33 5.67 5.67 38.75 6.25 6.25
6 June 50 41.00 9.00 9.00 40.75 9.25 9.25
7 July 43 44.00 -1.00 1.00 43.25 -0.25 0.25
8 Aug 47 46.00 1.00 1.00 43.75 3.25 3.25
9 Sep 56 46.67 9.33 9.33 46.25 9.75 9.75
10 Oct 52 48.67 3.33 3.33 49.00 3.00 3.00
11 Nov 55 51.67 3.33 3.33 49.50 5.50 5.50
12 Dec 54 54.33 -0.33 0.33 52.50 1.50 1.50
Weights
w1 = 0.5000
w2 = 0.3333
w3 = 0.1667
3-month
WMA Squared Percent
period month sales forecast error ABS(error) Error Error
1 Jan 37 - - - - -
2 Feb 40 - - - - -
3 Mar 41 - - - - -
4 Apr 37 40.00 -3.00 3.00 9.00 0.08
5 May 45 38.83 6.17 6.17 38.03 0.14
6 June 50 41.67 8.33 8.33 69.44 0.17
7 July 43 46.17 -3.17 3.17 10.03 0.07
8 Aug 47 45.67 1.33 1.33 1.78 0.03
9 Sep 56 46.17 9.83 9.83 96.69 0.18
10 Oct 52 50.83 1.17 1.17 1.36 0.02
11 Nov 55 52.50 2.50 2.50 6.25 0.05
12 Dec 54 54.17 -0.17 0.17 0.03 0.00
2.56 3.96 25.85 0.08
BIAS MAD MSE MAPE
60.00
sales
40.00 3-month MA
Sales
20.00 forecast
4-month MA
0.00 forecast
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Time
Simple Exponential Smoothing
alpha = 0.50
beta = 0.30
Squared
period month sales level trend forecast error ABS(error) Error
1 Jan 37 37 0 - - - -
2 Feb 40 37 0 37.00 3.00 3.00 9.00
3 Mar 41 38.50 0.45 38.95 2.05 2.05 4.20
4 Apr 37 39.98 0.76 40.73 -3.73 3.73 13.93
5 May 45 38.87 0.20 39.06 5.94 5.94 35.24
6 June 50 42.03 1.09 43.12 6.88 6.88 47.33
7 July 43 46.56 2.12 48.68 -5.68 5.68 32.26
8 Aug 47 45.84 1.27 47.11 -0.11 0.11 0.01
9 Sep 56 47.05 1.25 48.31 7.69 7.69 59.20
10 Oct 52 52.15 2.41 54.56 -2.56 2.56 6.55
11 Nov 55 53.28 2.02 55.30 -0.30 0.30 0.09
12 Dec 54 55.15 1.98 57.13 -3.13 3.13 9.78
0.91 3.73 19.78
BIAS MAD MSE
30 sales
0.14
0.13 forecast
20
0.00
0.14 10
0.05
0
0.01
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
0.06
0.08 Time
MAPE
Model Comparison and Selection