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Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 70 (2017) 1323

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews


journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/rser

Scenarios analysis of energy mix for road transportation sector in Indonesia


Deendarliantoa,b, , Adhika Widyaparagaa,b, Bertha Maya Sophaa,b, Arief Budimanb,c,

Imam Muthohard, Indra Chandra Setiawane, Alia Lindasistaf, Joewono Soemardjitog,


Kazutaka Okah
a
Department of Mechanical & Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Gadjah Mada University, Jalan Graka No. 2, Yogyakarta 55281, Indonesia
b
Centre for Energy Studies, Gadjah Mada University, Sekip K-1A Kampus UGM, Yogyakarta 55281, Indonesia
c
Department of Chemical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Gadjah Mada University, Jalan Graka No. 2, Yogyakarta 55281, Indonesia
d
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Gadjah Mada University, Jalan Graka No. 2, Yogyakarta 55281, Indonesia
e
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Pancasila University, Jalan Raya Lenteng Agung, Srengseng Sawah, Jagakarsa, Jakarta
Selatan, DKI Jakarta 12640, Indonesia
f
Corporate Strategic Planning, Investment Planning & Management Directorate, PT. Pertamina (Persero), Jalan Medan Merdeka Timur No. 1A, Jakarta
10110, Indonesia
g
Centre of Transportation and Logistics Studies, Gadjah Mada University, Bulaksumur E-9 Kampus UGM, Yogyakarta 55281, Indonesia
h
Mizuho Information & Research Institute, Japan

A R T I C L E I N F O A BS T RAC T

Keywords: The design of future transportation energy mix has become an important issue in Indonesia. Oil-based fuels
Transportation energy modeling such as gasoline and diesel seems to be infeasible options in the future due to limited availability, high subsidy,
Energy mix and environmental issues. This paper presents energy mix model for transportation sector in Indonesia. The
Sustainable Mobility Project (SMP) model considers a variety of feasible technology options and includes three competing objectives, i.e., energy
spreadsheet model
consumption, fuel subsidy, and CO2 emission. Scenarios were developed to include business as usual (BAU), the
Indonesia
introduction of compress natural gas (CNG) technology, vehicle retirement program, the implementation of
hybrid vehicles energy mix which considers future behavioral factors. The result indicates that the most eective
strategy to reduce energy consumption and eventually fuel subsidy is through retirement program of old
vehicles. The introduction of the CNG vehicle on public transportation appears to give little signicance in
reducing the annual subsidy costs, fuel consumption and CO2 emissions.

1. Introduction security index (ESI). In general the energy security consists of the
dimension of availability, aordability, accessibility and accessibility.
Transportation sector involves the combination of domestic energy This means that governance was a small role in the energy security,
ows, conversions and consumptions associated with process in which indicates that governance is not always included in energy
industrial and civilian sectors as well as input and output of material security assessment. In their work, the data were collected from various
across the country. As the transportation sectorplays a major role, it international institutions combined with the data from national
must be sustainable in order to continue to allow all people access to institutions. The result indicated that there is an increasing trend
the economic and social opportunities necessary for livelihood [1]. between 2008 and 2013 of Indonesian energy security index (ESI).
Therefore, in regards to sustainability, there are two sides of energy use Overall the Indonesian ESI is 0.473 (rank 55 of 71 countries), mean-
in transportation sector. One is in relation to the large contribution while the ESI for road transportation sector was not measured. In
made especially by road transportation sources to pollution problems addition the results mean that Indonesia's energy security is less
while the other is related to energy supply for transportation sectors of satisfactory and it should be improved. The improvement should focus
each country [2]. Steg and Giord [3] considered that the world's on the energy diversication target and environmental policy.
transportation system is not sustainable because the automobile use As an emerging economy and high population country, Indonesia is
and density have strongly increased during last few decades. currently a booming economy with a growth rate of 6% since 2010
Presently Erahman et al. [4] assessed the Indonesian energy which results in an expanding middle-class on mobility. Moreover,
security index from 2008 to 2013 by using the measurement of energy energy demand on Indonesian road transportation sector becomes


Corresponding author at: Department of Mechanical & Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Gadjah Mada University, Jalan Graka No. 2, Yogyakarta 55281, Indonesia.
E-mail address: deendarlianto@ugm.ac.id (Deendarlianto).

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.11.206
Received 15 November 2015; Received in revised form 3 November 2016; Accepted 14 November 2016
1364-0321/ 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Deendarlianto et al. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 70 (2017) 1323

higher. In Indonesia, the road transportation system not only facilitates of road transportation energy/energy modeling in Indonesia or rele-
the mobility for people and goods over the country, but also for the vant countries. In the table the summary includes object studies and
industrial and local trading. The transportation sector accounts for a the use analysis methods, and is listed in chronological order. The
major share of Indonesian energy mix, especially in regard to oil based latest studies have been also included in this table. Close observation of
fuels, whereas Indonesia has been a net oil importer country since the Table 1 indicates that there is few studies deal with the energy
year of 2004. This sector consumes over 60% of Indonesian oil modeling of road transportation sector in Indonesia or relevant
consumption, and 70% of which attributed to road transportation. countries. The possible reason is due to the limited availability vehicles
Therefore, road transportation becomes the main contributor of energy production, travel distance, and engine eciency data.
consumption in transportation sector. The road transportation is One of the earliest works was performed Jayed et al. [14]. They
forecasted to account for 87% of the total transportation energy performed a review study on the prospects of dedicated biodiesel
demand by 2030 according to the Asia Pacic Energy Research engines vehicles in Malaysia and Indonesia. In case of Indonesia, they
Centre [5]. Consequently, the number of passenger vehicles will used national biofuel policy of 2006 as a reference. In their work, the
increase from 3.4 million units in 2002 to 13.9 million units by eects of the biofuel on the existing engine vehicle were also discussed.
2030. This rise was a consequence of the individual income, the They noticed that dierent research and development approaches on
increase of the length of the expressway over the country, and the biodiesel shows that diesel engine designed does not suite for long time
limited facilities of public transportation system. engine operation, hence, little modication is needed in order to
Under the pressure of global warming and signicant great provide a comprehensive in tailoring fuel properties for engine
uctuation of fuel prices, Indonesia faces a strong issue on the energy compatibility. The solution is also inline with that of Brazil. Here
conservation, fuel subsidy, and also green house gas (GHG) emissions Brazil implemented exible-fuel vehicle (FFV) or dual-fuel vehicle to
as announced by the Indonesian President in the year of 2009. A target overcome the engine corrosion and hygroscopic. Here FFV engines are
for Indonesia of a 26% reduction in GHG emissions below the capable of burning any proportion of resulting blend in the combustion
Business-as-Usual level by 2020, based on unilateral actions, and a chamber as fuel injection and spark time are adjusted automatically. To
further reduction of up to 41% below Business-as-Usual, if adequate implement their solution, they suggested that government has to play
international support were made available to the Government of its role on the planning and putting all together, researchers, car
Indonesia. manufacturer and oil companies. Meanwhile, the analyses of the
A critical problem regarding Indonesian road transportation energy availability of Indonesian biofuel in national energy mix for road
is the continued nancial burden to the Indonesian government due to transportation was not conducted.
the policy of subsidizing gasoline and diesel fuels. Meanwhile the Regarding the studies of energy modeling for road transportation
subsidy for private vehicles has been removed in 2014. If the policy is sector, Zari et al. [15] performed the exergy eciencies analysis in the
turned in the future, the increasing demand of those fuels will be Iran's transportation sector both of current and future conditions by
accompanied by increasing subsidy, further made worse if domestic oil using the conception of energy and exergy balances. The analyses were
production continues to decline. Therefore, it is necessary to explore carried-out in the range of year 19982035. The main idea of this work
the alternative scenarios for implementing alternative energy resources is originally to help the policymaker identify spots where wastage occur
or fuel type for road transportation. Such scenarios are needed not only the most, which will help them determine reduction opportunities and
for economic development but also for social development. might also assist governments in national wealth management. Their
Regarding energy availability in Indonesia, most of previous aca- results indicated that the usage of renewable energies such as hydro-
demic works focused on the overall energy scenario [6], the power power and solar in order to generate and utilizes electricity in the
generation modeling to fulll Indonesian electricity needs [79], transportation sector, which reduces the consumption of fossil fuels.
technology modeling in the future biofuel production system, the Next, the use of natural gas fueled cars is also recommended in the
adequacy of Indonesian energy sources and its eect to the CO2 future. In addition the road subsector appears to be the most ecient
emissions [1012], and also the impact of the global climate change subsector compared with the other subsectors during the analyzed
policy on national economic [13]. periods. Although the use methodology can predict the future energy
The objective of the present paper is to review the best mix for road requirement in Iran as country, meanwhile, the basic transportation
transportation sector in Indonesia by simulating the usage of various parameters such as travel distance, fuel economic and technology
fuels and energy ecient technology of road vehicle on the fuel eciency were not considered in their work.
consumption, fuel subsidy and CO2emission. Therefore, the present Ahanchian and Biona [16] conducted a study on the transportation
research is also the rst attempt to model Indonesian road transporta- energy modeling in order to map out the energy demand, emission
tion energy mix by considering energy consumption and the above forecast and mitigation strategies of Metro Manila's land transporta-
aspects, including nancial aspects (investment cost and nancial tion sector in the range of year 20102040. Thelong-rangeenergyal-
burden to to fuel subsidy) and CO2emissions. ternative-planning (LEAP) model was used in their study. The study
The remainder of the present review paper is organized as follows. projected the energy demand and the corresponding emission's for
A comprehensive overview of the road transportation energy in business as usual (BAU) and alternative scenarios including the
Indonesia and relevant countries will be described in Section 2. Next implementation of a higher fossil quality, such as EURO IV. In this
the calculation methodology of the energy consumption of Indonesian study, the bottom approach was used to estimate the vehicle projection.
road transportation sector is in Section 3. It includes the description of The energy demand and tailpipe pollution were calculated based on the
model and the developed scenarios. Section 4 presents scenario results stock and sales of vehicles, fuel economy, annual average mileage, and
and discussions, which is then followed by Section 5 for conclusion. vehicle age. The proposed scenarios are the improvement of fuel
quality, implementation of the EURO IV standard, phasing out old
2. Comprehensive overview of the road transportation Jeepneys, and shifting to four stroke engines. Finally, they concluded
energy in Indonesia or relevant countries that the adoption of EURO IV emission standard provides the greatest
reduction in energy use of 10.8%. This means also that the role of
In order to provide comprehensive studies, a wealth of relevant renewable energy on the energy mix of Manila road transportation
information on this topic in the journals will be review in the next energy was not considered.
section. The literature is reviewed on the basis of their used analysis Through subsidy reforms on energy consumption, some govern-
method and contribution. Those are shown clearly in Table 1. Table 1 ments in ASEAN countries are pursuing specic goals such as to reduce
shows the summary of the available literatures on the relevant studies intervention in the price system especially for fossil energy. In general,

14
Deendarlianto et al. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 70 (2017) 1323

Table 1
Summary of the previous studies on road transportation energy in Indonesia or relevant countries.

No Authors Year Object Studies Analysis Methods Remarks

1. Jayed et al., 2011 [14] Prospects of dedicated biodiesel engines Data review Different research and development approaches on biodiesel
vehicles in Malaysia and Indonesia shows that diesel engine designed does not suite for long time
engine operation, hence, little modification can give a
comprehensive in tailoring fuel properties for engine
compatibility
2. Zarifi et al., 2013 [15] Exergy efficiencies in the Iran's Energy and exergy balance Using natural gas fueled and RE such as hydropower and solar
transportation sector to generate electricity in the transportation sector in Iran are
suggested.
3. Ahanchian and 2014 [16] Energy demand, emission forecast and LEAP model Adoption of Euro 4 emission standard provides the greatest
Biona mitigation strategies of land reduction in energy use of 10.8%.
transportation sector in Metro Manila
4. Solaymani and 2014 [17] Impact of energy subsidy reform on the Computable general The removal of energy subsidies decreases the aggregate
Kari Malaysian economy and transportation equilibrium (CGE) energy demand, and, consequently, decreases the level of
sector carbon emissions in the Malaysian Economy.
5. Fan and Lei 2016 [18] Decomposition analysis of energy-related Multivariate Generalized 1. The primary positive drivers of CO2 emissions in the
carbon emissions from transportation Fisher Index (GFI) transportation sector include the economic growth, energy
sector in Beijing. decomposition model intensity and population size.
2. The cumulative contribution of economic growth to
transportation carbon emissions reaches 334.5%.
3. The development of new energy vehicle, e.q., electrical, is
suggested.
4. Comprehensive analysis on the energy mix of transportation
sector in Beijing was not given.
6. Kumar 2016 [19] Assessment of Renewable energy for LEAP model 1. Implementing renewable energy (RE) by 2020 reduces 81%
energy security & carbon mitigation of of CO2 emission in Indonesia.
Indonesia and Thailand. 2. Expanding the share of RE in energy mix can bring
extensively socio-economic benet to both Indonesia and
Thailand.
3. Detail prediction of road transportation energy was not
provided.

the Malaysian government subsidies have increased dramatically by development of new energy vehicle, e.q., electrical is suggested. In spite
541% since 2000, while fuel prices increased by 290%. Nevertheless, of the obtained result from this work, the comprehensive studies/
the ratio of total subsidies to government expenditure highly depends analysis on the energy mix of road transportation sector in Beijing
on scal expansion as wells as the overall GDP growth of the Malaysian including the role of renewable energy was not considered.
economy. For this reason Solaymani and Kari [17] performed an To review the best energy mix of Indonesian road transportation
energy transportation modeling to examine the impact of energy sector, the assessment of Indonesian renewable energy should be
subsidy reform on the Malaysian economy and transportation sector. considered. Kumar [19] performed the assessment of Indonesian
The computable general equilibrium (CGE) was employed in their renewable energy capability for energy security & carbon migration.
work, and considered the carbon emissions from the burning of fossil Here LEAP model was used, and it was considered that Indonesia is
fuels in the production activities of whole economy, while excluding the one of the leading exporters steam coal in the world and one of the
consumption activities and other sources of carbon emissions. largest exporters of liquid natural gas. Meanwhile the oil production
Therefore, the computations on the carbon emissions are conditional. has been declining since 2004, and will not able to cover the rising of
The results indicate that the removal of energy studies decreases the oil demand in the future. For that reason the resources of geothermal
aggregate energy demand, and, consequently, decreases the level of and the other renewable energy resources should be considered in their
carbon emissions in the Malaysian economy. From this result, the energy mix. Finally, Kumar concluded that the implementing renew-
eect of energy subsidy removal is also considered in the present paper able energy (RE) by 2020 will reduces 81% of CO2 emissions in
in order to review the scenarios of energy mix for road transportation Indonesia, and expanding the share of RE in energy mix can bring
sector in Indonesia. extensively socio-economy benet of the people. The same conclusion
Recently Fan and Lei [18] carried the decomposition analysis of is also found if the same energy modeling is carried out for the cases of
energy-related carbon emissions from transportation sector in Beijing Thailand.
by using the multivariate generalized sher Index (GFI) decomposition
model. The main idea of this work was the facts that Beijing is an
3. Methodology
international metropolis, and the transportation carbon emissions
continue to grow along with the increasing expansion of urban space
3.1. Calculation model
and increased car ownership. From 19952012, the average annual
growth rate of transportation carbon emissions in Beijing reached
The present study employs the modied Sustainable Mobility
11.81% and is expected to grow continuously. The previous studies on
Project (SMP) spreadsheet model which was developed by the
transportation energy in China discussed only the eect of individual
International Energy Agency (IEA) in cooperation with the World
behavior on carbon emissions, and the systematic analysis of the
Business Council for Sustainable Development's (WBCSD) in 2004. It
factors aecting transportation sector CO2 emissions in Beijing was not
is originally designed to produce projections of vehicle stocks, travel,
considered. The simulation results of this work indicated that primary
energy use and other indicator through 2050 for a reference case and
positive drivers of CO2 emissions in the road transportation sector
for various policy cases and scenarios with incorporation of technolo-
include the growth, energy intensity and population size. The cumu-
gical eects. The model calculates energy and CO2 emissions based on
lative contribution of economic growth to transportation carbon
fuel type using the IEA ASIF structure: Activity, Structure, Intensity,
emissions reaches 334.5%, whereas, to overcome this problem the
and Fuel composition as shown in Fig. 1.

15
Deendarlianto et al. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 70 (2017) 1323

Fig. 1. IEA ASIF structure.

In general, the IEA/SMP model has some limitations. It does not [20]. They suggested that the use income per capita as indicated by
include any representations of economic relationship nor does it track GDP is the only explanatory variable to the growth of vehicle owner-
costs. Those consideration are especially important for Indonesian ship.
policy since changes of gasoline and diesel usage will have implications To obtain representative GDP that can be used to estimate the
on the amount of fuel subsidy the government budget must bear. In number of vehicle, fundamental factors that may have caused disconti-
addition, the standard IEA/SMP model cannot be adapted directly to nuities in GDP trend should be considered. The historical GDP of
the case of road travel for the six large economic areas of Indonesia. Indonesia from 1960 to 2011 from World Bank (2013) [21] was
The standard IEA/SMP model is based on the divisions of the world analyzed and is shown in Fig. 4. Close observation on the gure reveals
into 11 regions; therefore individual countries cannot be evaluated that the discontinuity was found in 19971998 due to the Asian
well. Next, statistical data is also averaged within a region thus does not nancial crisis. Based on this the existence of this discontinuity, it has
reect the real condition in each country in the region, whereas non- been considered to use only post-1998 GDP data in the present
road travel such as rail and air travel is also considered. modeling as shown in Fig. 4. In the Fig. 5, the six regional data were
In order to improve the aforementioned aspects, the modication of collected and analyzed from the Indonesian Statistical Bureau (2013)
the IEA/SMP spreadsheet model was carried-out by undertaking the [22].
following actions which then we refer to as a basic model. The Moreover, the sheer size of Indonesia as a country and the fact that
modication includes the provincial statistical data of Indonesia, Indonesia is an archipelago has created dierences in accessible
development of a new model focusing on road travel case utilizing natural resources and dierences in infrastructural developments in
the provincial statistical data of Indonesia, and development of a cost various areas. The GDP data is therefore grouped into the six
prediction module incorporating subsidized fuel and infrastructure aforementioned areas. The regional GDP prediction for each area is
costs. Finally, the modications are accounted in the model calculation shown in Fig. 5. The gure shows that average growth for the regions of
algorithm as presented schematically in Fig. 2. Sumatera, Java & Bali, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Nusa Tenggara, Papua
Due to the socio-economic and technological dierences among the & Maluku are 4.63%, 5.98%, 7.38%, 4.92%, and 7.04% respectively. In
Indonesian provices, the model were grouped into six areas: Sumatera, addition, both regional and national data do not coincide perfectly. The
Java and Bali, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Nusa Tenggara, Papua and predicted population of Indonesia area is using the same procedure as
Maluku as shown in Indonesian map in Fig. 3. it enables a ner that of GDP and shown in Fig. 6.
adjustment of scenarios particularly when introducting new technology The vehicle ownership was calculated on the basis of the vehicle
or vehicles only within certain groups. sales data from the Association of Indonesian Automotive Industries
([2325]) and the Indonesian Motorcycle Industries Association
3.2. Input data (AISI). By correlating historical vehicle ownership to historical GDP
per capita for each study area, projections of ownership can be
This section presents input data needed in the calculation model predicted up to 2030. The results are displayed in Fig. 7. Annual travel
and the developed scenarios of future Indonesian road transportation distance data was obtained from a study conducted by South North and
energy mix. First of all, the time series of Indonesian gross domestic the Center for Transportation and Logistics Studies of Gadjah Mada
product (GDP) and the prediction of the future of Indonesian popula- University in 2003 [26]. The average annual travel distance was
tion should be determined as suggested by Dargay and Gately (1999) calculated by estimating the number of the active days within 1 (one)

Fig. 2. Schematic diagram of model algorithm.

16