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CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION
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1.1 Introduction

In the modern business environment data being generated in most service organizations is
measured in gigabytes or terabytes. At times looking for information in several terabytes
of information can seem to be akin to searching for a needle in a haystack. With the
rampant application of IT in business processes all over the world, companies already
have massive amounts of data but are unable to relate most of it to the creation or review
of corporate strategy. This indicates the need for intelligent use of technology to be step
ahead of others in this immensely competitive corporate world where profit margins are
wafer thin, customers are spoilt for choice and product life cycles are considerably
shortened.

This intelligent use of technology can be through data mining which draws upon
extensive work in areas such as; statistics, machine learning, pattern recognition,
databases, and high performance computing to discover interesting and previously
unknown information in datasets.1

So how exactly does data mining provide you information about things that you didnt
know, couldnt observe or predict what may happen next? The technique used to perform
these feats is called modeling. Though modeling techniques have been around for several
decades now, it is only with the advent of computing technologies that allow us to store
huge amounts of data and use automated modeling techniques that we can now predict
and understand the hidden patterns within data.

For a data mining application standpoint, the retail sector shall be taken given its
significance in the economy of any country in the world. In fact, the retail sector is one of
the largest employers globally including India.

1
http://www.siam.org/meetings/sdm02/

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Amongst all the industries in the global economy, technology (specifically information
technology) plays a major role in the success or failure of retail companies and in order to
substantiate this statement one can study how the use of technology has contributed
significantly to making the US based retail company Wal-Mart one of the worlds largest
(and most valuable) corporation. Some of the most successful practical applications of
information technology by Wal-Mart have been in the field of data mining. In a story that
appeared in the New York Times titled What Customers know about Customers
Habits, the company mined data from its previous sales records in the situation of a
natural calamity (a Hurricane) to successfully predict the sales during another calamity.2

This case study about Wal-Mart lends credence to the fact that information technology,
specifically, data mining is potentially a powerful tool to run large retail businesses
successfully. In the Indian context, this shall be an even more important consideration
given the size, geographical spread and diversity of the country and given the fact that the
intelligent use of IT by Indian retail companies is very limited.

This research shall therefore be centered on the use and applying of Data Mining
Techniques in Indian retail companies to better understand customers in a scientific
manner rather than depending on the experience of the store manager or merely looking
at sales records of a certain period. This research shall apply data mining techniques to
understand the customer choice criteria while selecting a particular store and developing
a predictive model of customer behavior.

1.2 Data Mining

Data mining (DM) refers to "using a variety of techniques to identify nuggets of

information or knowledge in data, and extracting these for decision support, prediction,
forecasting and estimation. The data is often voluminous, but as it stands of low value as
no direct use can be made of it; it is the hidden information in the data that is useful".

2
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/14/business/yourmoney/14wal.html?position=&_r=0&pagewanted=
print&position=

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Through data mining, marketing statisticians can extract useful information about
individuals, trend, and segments from the mass of data. DM involves the use of statistical
and mathematical techniques such as cluster analysis, automatic interaction detection,
predictive modeling and neural networking. A company that wants to learn the most from
its database needs to engage the services of a person or company skilled in data mining.

According to Philip Kotler [87], companies can use their databases in the following ways:
To identify prospects
To decide which customers should receive a particular offer
To deepen customer loyalty
To reactivate customer purchases

Data Warehousing is the coordinated and periodic copying of data from various sources,
both inside and outside the enterprise, into an environment ready for analytical and
informational processing [67]. Data Warehouse is typically used for the purpose of
reporting, Online Analytical Processing (OLAP), Data Mining (DM) and Executive
Information System (EIS) [22]. Many of the functions like cleansing and preparation to
import the data into the data warehouse are performed on data in order to prepare it for
data mining [7]. Properly designed, implemented, and maintained, a data warehouse is a
valuable business intelligence tool [51]. The existence of data warehouse thus, simplifies
the data mining process for the preparation of the data to be analyzed.

Data mining is the process of analyzing data from different perspectives and summarizing
it into useful information that can be used to increase revenue, cut costs or both. Data
mining is a technique of finding correlations or patterns among dozens of fields in large
database. The kinds of patterns that can be discovered depend upon the data mining tasks
employed. There are two types of data mining tasks:
Descriptive Data Mining Tasks: Describe the general property of available data
Predictive Data Mining Tasks: Depends on prediction based on inference on available
data [156].

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Data mining roots are traced back along three family lines. These are classical statistics,
artificial intelligence, and machine learning. Statistics is the foundation of most of the
technologies on which data mining is based. Classical statistics embrace concepts such as
regression analysis, standard distribution, standard deviation, variance, discriminant
analysis, cluster analysis, all of which are used to study the data and relationship in data.
Certainly, within the data mining tools and techniques, classical statistics plays a
significant role. Data minings second family line is AI (Artificial Intelligence) that
applies human-thought-like processing to statistical problems. It requires vast computer
processing power. The third family line of DM is machine learning which is described as
the union of statistics and (AI). It attempts to let computer programs learn about the data
under study, so that the programs make different decisions based on the qualities of the
data, using statistics for fundamental concepts and adding AI heuristics and algorithms to
achieve its goals.

Data mining is an inter-disciplinary emerging field at the crossroads of different areas.

Freitas and Lavington [50] identified two areas: Data-related area and Knowledge
Discovery- related area. The first area focuses on efficient storage and management of
huge volumes of data and includes Database Management Systems, Data Warehousing.
The second area focuses on access of information useful for high-level decisions and
includes Machine Learning, Statistics and Probabilities, On Line Analytical Processing
(OLAP), data visualization, information science, high-performance computing etc. Thus,
data mining is the confluence of multiple disciplines.

Data mining is the underlying technology that enables business executives to manage
their data and to make relevant decisions. Data mining in itself is not a business solution
but is an extension of statistics; with a few artificial intelligence and machine learning
twists thrown in [149]. Data Mining relies on special software to uncover patterns. Data
mining can help spot sales trends, develop smart marketing campaigns, and accurately
predict customer loyalty. Specific uses of data mining include:

Market segmentation: Identify the common characteristics of customers who buy

the same products from your company.

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 Customer churn: Predict which customers are likely to leave your company and go
to your competitor.
Fraud detection: Identify which transactions are more likely to be fraudulent
Direct marketing: Identify which prospects should be included in the mailing list to
obtain the highest response time.
Interactive marketing: Predict what each individual accessing a web site is most
likely interested in seeing.
Market basket analysis: Understand what product or services are commonly
purchased together.
Trend analysis: reveal the difference between a typical customer this month and last.

1.3 Evolution and Developmental History of Data mining

Data mining is considered to be the result of the evolution of database technology. The
following functions represent the major steps in the database evolutionary path:
Data collection and database creation
Data management
Data analysis and data understanding

According to Thearling [147], the evolution of data mining began when business data
was first stored on computers, continued with improvements in data access, and
technologies that allow users to navigate through their data in real time. Data mining
takes this evolutionary process beyond retrospective data access and navigation to
prospective and proactive information delivery. DM is ready for application in the
business community because it is supported by three sufficiently mature technologies:
Massive data collection
Powerful multiprocessor computers
Data mining algorithms

Recently data mining has been the subject of many articles in business and software
magazines. However, just a few years ago, few people had even heard of the term data
mining. Though data mining is the evolution of a term with a long history, the term itself

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was introduced quite recently, in e 1990s. This section explores the history of data
mining. The table 1.1 gives the overview of the evolution of data mining.

Table 1.1: Steps in the Evolution of Data Mining

Evolutionary Business Enabling Product Characteristics

Step Question Technologies Providers

Data "What was Computers, tapes, IBM, CDC Retrospective,

Collection my total disks static data
(1960s) revenue in delivery
the last five
years?"

Data Access "What were Relational Oracle, Retrospective,

(1980s) unit sales in databases Sybase, dynamic data
New (RDBMS), Informix, delivery at
England Structured Query IBM, record level
last Language (SQL), Microsoft
March?" ODBC

Data "What were On-line analytic Pilot, Retrospective,

Warehousing unit sales in processing Comshare, dynamic data
& Decision New (OLAP), Arbor, delivery at
Support England multidimensional Cognos, multiple levels
(1990s) last March? databases, data Microstrategy
Drill down warehouses
to Boston."

Data Mining "Whats Advanced Pilot, Prospective,

(Emerging likely to algorithms, Lockheed, proactive
Today) happen to multiprocessor IBM, SGI, information
Boston unit computers, massive numerous delivery
sales next databases startups
month?
Why?"
Source: Thearling, Kurt. "An introduction to data mining." Whitepaper. http://www3.
shore. net/~ kht/dmwhite/dmwhite. htm (2003).

The building blocks of todays data mining techniques date back to the 1950s when the
work of mathematicians, logicians, and computer scientists combined to create artificial
intelligence (AI) and machine learning [148].

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In the 1960s, AI and statistics practitioners developed new algorithms such as regression
analysis, maximum likelihood estimates, neural networks, bias reduction, and linear
models of classification [19]. The term data mining was coined during this decade, but
the term was pejoratively used to describe the practice of wading through data and
finding patterns that had no statistical significance [45].

Recently data mining has been the subject of many articles in business and software
magazines. However, just a few years ago, few people had even heard of the term data
mining. Though data mining is the evolution of a term with a long history, the term itself
was only introduced quite recently, in the 1990s. This section explores the history of data
mining.

The building blocks of todays data mining techniques date back to the 1950s when the
work of mathematicians, logicians, and computer scientists combined to create artificial
intelligence (AI) and machine learning [148].

In the 1960s, AI and statistics practitioners developed new algorithms such as regression
analysis, maximum likelihood estimates, neural networks, bias reduction, and linear
models of classification [19]. The term data mining was coined during this decade, but
the term was pejoratively used to describe the practice of wading through data and
finding patterns that had no statistical significance [45].

Also in the 1960s, the field of information retrieval (IR) made its contribution in the form
of clustering techniques and similarity measures. At the time these techniques were
applied to text documents, but they would later be utilized when mining data in databases
and other large, distributed data sets [48]. Database systems focus on query and
transaction processing of structured data, whereas IR is concerned with the organization
and retrieval of information from a large number of text-based documents [57]. By the
end of the 1960s, information retrieval and database systems were developing in parallel.

In 1971, Gerard Salton published his groundbreaking work on the SMART Information
Retrieval System. This represented a new approach to information retrieval which

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utilized the algebra-based vector space model (VSM). VSM models would prove to be a
key ingredient in the data mining toolkit [19].

Throughout 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, the confluence of disciplines like AI, IR, statistics,
and database systems and availability of fast microcomputers opened up a world of
possibilities for retrieving and analyzing data. At that time new programming languages
were developed and new computing techniques were developed including genetic
algorithms, EM algorithms, K-Means clustering, and decision tree algorithms [19].

By the start of the 1990s, the term KDD had been coined and the first KDD workshop
held [45]. The huge volume of data created the need for new techniques for handling
massive quantities of information, much of which was located in huge databases.

1990s saw the development of database warehouses, a term used to describe a large
database (composed of a single schema), created from the consolidation of operational
and transactional database data. Along with the development of data warehouses came
online analytical processing (OLAP), decision support systems, data scrubbing/staging
(transformation), and association rule algorithms [19, 48].

During the 1990s, data mining changed from being an interesting new technology to
becoming part of standard business practice. This occurred because the cost of computer
disk storage went down, processing power went up, and the benefits of data mining
became more apparent. Businesses began using data mining to help manage all phases
of the customer life cycle, including acquiring new customers, increasing revenue from
existing customers, and retaining good customers [57].

Data mining is used by a wide variety of industries and sectors including retail, medical,
telecommunications, scientific, financial, pharmaceutical, marketing, Internet-based
companies, and the government [45]. In a May, 2004 report on Federal data mining
activities, the U.S. General Accounting Office [152] reported there were 199 data mining
operations underway or planned in various federal agencies, and this list doesnt include
the secret data mining activities such as MATRIX and the NSAs eavesdropping [53].

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1.4 Commercial Applications of Data Mining

Fayyad et al. [48] suggested that one of the major reasons why data mining has been
attracting so much attention in the recent years is as a result of the wide availability of
huge amount of collected data, and the growing need to run this data into useful
information. The information and knowledge gained from this data can then be applied to
various applications ranging from business applications to science exploration.

Data mining is used for a variety of purpose in both the private and public sectors.
Industries like banking, insurance, medicine, and retailing commonly use data mining to
reduce cost, enhance research, and increase sales.

Some application areas include:

The insurance and banking industries use data mining applications to detect fraud and
risk assessment (e.g., credit scoring). Using customer data collected over several
years, companies can develop models that predict whether a customer is a good credit
risk, or whether an accident claim may be fraudulent or should be investigated more
closely.
The medical community sometimes uses data mining to help predict the effectiveness
of procedures or medicine. Pharmaceutical firms use data mining of chemical
compounds and genetic material to help guide research on treatments of new diseases.
Retailers can use information collected through affinity programs (for example
shoppers, club cards, frequent flyer points, contests) to assess the effectiveness of
product selections and placement decisions, coupon offers, and which products are
likely to be procured together.
Companies like telephone service providers and music clubs can use data mining to
create a churn analysis to assess which customers are likely to remain as
subscribers and which are likely to switch to a competitor [57].
A diversified transportation company with a large direct sales force can apply data
mining to identify the best prospects for its services. Using data mining to analyze its
own customer experience, this company can build a unique segmentation identifying

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 the attributes of high-value prospects. Applying this segmentation to a general
business database can yield a prioritized list of prospects by region.
In the public sector also data mining has helped the federal government recover
millions of dollars in fraudulent Medicare payments [130]. The Justice department
has been able to use data mining to assess crime patterns and adjust resource
allotments accordingly. Similarly, the Department of Veteran affairs has used data
mining to help predict demographic changes in the constituency it serves to better
estimate its budgetary needs. Federal Aviation Administration uses data mining to
review plane crash data to recognize common defects and recommended
precautionary measures [23].

1.5 Retailing

Retailing can be defined as the promoting and selling of merchandise directly to

consumers, augmented by advertising, store promotions, and personal contacts in the
community where the retailers outlet is located. Retailing is the selling of finished goods
and services to the consumer for personal or family consumption.

The retail sector faces quite a few challenges that data mining could possibly
resolve. Like any other sector of the global or a domestic economy, the retail sector is
facing stiff competition and margins are very tight. At the end of the day, most retailers
tend to sell almost similar or substitutable products to the same group of customers.
Retailers struggle to find answers to:
a) Who is the firms loyal customer?
b) What revelations can customer purchasing patterns come up with?
c) What is the most effective way to manage customer relations to maximize
revenues?

An addition to these questions could be what attracts customers more to a particular store
and what makes them avoid certain stores? It shall also be important to understand how
different customers possibly react to different retail scenarios. One common factor in all
of these questions is the need to identify and understand customers because they continue

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to remain central to all corporate and marketing strategies. In other words this also means
organizations must be proactive and have to anticipate what their current and prospective
customers needs. So how have retailers applied data mining techniques to effectively
find answers to these questions?

All modern organized retailers have access to huge customer data collected at the billing
counter also known as POS (Point-of-sale) data. Through data mining techniques, the
POS data coupled with other data generated by other store functions have helped retailers
resolve several issues related to the following:
a) Direct marketing
b) Customer relationship management (CRM)
c) Category management & inventory control
d) Market Basket Analysis
e) Web site analysis and personalization
f) analyzing store hours and staffing needs
g) assortment planning including inventory levels/control
h) markdown schedules and timing of promotional offers

1.6 Motivation of Applying Data Mining In Retailing

India is an amazing country where traditional formats like hawkers, grocers and paan
shops co-exist with modern formats like supermarkets, and non-store retailing channels
such as multilevel marketing and teleshopping [66].

Given their greater access to data and analytical tools, retailers are finding that
information technology has enabled them to answer increasingly complex questions
pertaining to retail strategy and operationsfor themselves as well as their customers,
suppliers, and other partners. Data are pervasive throughout the retail supply chain.

Suppliers, partners, and upstream and downstream intermediaries are plugged in through
real-time interfaces that rely on EDI and the open standards of the Internet. In addition to
traditional hard technologies like scanners, barcode readers, and wearable computers,
recent trends point to the growing importance of Internet-centric software and analytical

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tools that can diffuse critical and actionable retail knowledge throughout an integrated
retail organization. These tools enable physical and on-line retailers and other supply-
chain intermediaries to answer questions related to their businesses on a real-time basis.
The tools also supplement data capture and storage technologies by converting
information into intelligence.

A simple purchase at any retail store can enable the store to gather a vast amount of
information about its customers and products. The use of systems to organize, retrieve,
search and manage that data is termed as database management. Database management is
a major RIS tool and it can be used with customer databases, vendor databases, product
category databases, and so on. A firm may compile and store data on customer attributes
and purchase behavior, compute sales figures by vendor, and store records by product
category. Each of these would represent a separate database [12].

Data Mining is a technique used to identify patterns in data, typically patterns that the
analyst is unaware of prior to searching through the data. The goal here is to look for
opportunities in customized or tailored marketing efforts that could lead to better retailer
performance. One application of Data Mining is Micromarketing, whereby the retailer
uses differentiated marketing and develops focused strategy mixes for specific customer
segments, sometimes fine-tuned for the individual customer [12].

The modern retail segment in India is currently very small and modern retailing has just
about to take-off. The likes of Reliance Retail, Easy Day, More, Big Bazaar amongst
others are expanding not only into the large cities but also into smaller cities and smaller
states of the country. Given its potential, the modern Indian retail sector is poised for a
big leap. The Indian governments green signal to foreign direct investment (FDI) will
also encourage several large-scale international retailers to enter the Indian market. In
2010, organized retail was estimated at around $23 billion [115]. IRMC estimates the
retail market to be growing at 8-10% and the modern format at 25-35%. So clearly
modern Indian retail is the sector to watch out for in the future and this justifies any
investment, be it in operations, real estate, personnel or something of interest to this
research study technology, information technology to be specific.

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Retailers in India can learn from existing data mining technologies already being used in
other international markets and this presents a great opportunity to develop models and
applications customized specifically for the Indian consumer. One can expect that Indian
consumers will behave differently compared to their counterparts in other parts of the
world. This is the primary motivation of this study.

Table 1.2: KDnuggets : Polls : Data Mining Software (May 2008)

Poll : Data Mining Software
What data mining tools have you used for a real project (not just for evaluation) in the
past 6 months? [347 voters]
For tools with 20 votes or more, we split results into "alone" votes - where this tool selected
alone (narrow bar), and the second (wide) bar to the number votes where the tool was select
as one among several; Tools are ordered in descending order of total number of votes.
SPSS Clementine ( 74, 53 alone or with SPSS)
Salford CART, MARS, TreeNet, RF (72, 34 alone)
SPSS (68, 38 alone or with Clementine)
Excel (61, 1 alone)
SAS (55, 6 alone or with SAS EM)

KXEN (32, 25 alone)

SAS Enterprise Miner (24, 6 alone or with SAS)

MATLAB (22,1 alone)

SQL Server (20, 2 alone)

Other commercial tools (12)
Angoss (8)
Oracle DM (7)
Statsoft Statistica (5)
Insightful Miner/S-Plus (5)
Viscovery (4)
Tiberius (2)
Miner3D (1)
Megaputer (1)
FairIsaac Model Builder (1)
Bayesia (1)
Source: http://www.kdnuggets.com/polls/2008/data-mining-software-tools-used.htm

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From a research standpoint, one of the major steps in developing and implementing data
mining technologies in a firm is to identify the right software tool. The attributes of a
good tool include availability, popularity and ease of use. Upon observation of the
popular portal for data mining community i.e. www.kdnuggets.com, it becomes evident
that SPSS is the most popular tool used for the purpose of data mining (vide Table 1.2).
This survey report appearing on kdnuggets.com is the primary motivation and
justification for the use of SPSS in this study. In addition, SPSS is also user friendly and
highly application oriented.

1.7 Objectives of the Study

A review of several published work on data mining indicates that very little work has
been done in data mining in India. Several business applications were also reviewed and
it was observed that data mining, globally, plays a very important role in the retail sector.
In India, the retail scenario is changing very fast, especially the two largest retail
segments i.e. Grocery & Apparel. Keeping all of this in mind the following objectives
were framed:

1. To use data mining techniques to identify the various customers types for grocery
shopping scenario
2. To find the characteristics and behavioral patterns of various customer types
identified
3. To identify customer perceptions of grocery store images
4. To develop a predictive model of customers store choice for grocery shopping
scenario

1.8 Significance of the Study

Information technology influences the whole society, affecting every aspect of life. Retail
is at the front line of market and market competition, meeting customers face to face.
Barcode and RFID technology have already been used widely in the retail industry and a
lot of data has been accumulated. Development of data storage and database technology

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also enabled the exponential growth in the amount of enterprise data. Now mining useful
knowledge from valuable data repositories has significant meaning for decision-making,
such as cost reduction, customer loyalty increasing and retailers promotion. Thus, there
is a clear need for (semi-) automatic methods for extracting knowledge from data.

The present study will help the retailers in India to mine various customer types of their
store and to evaluate the importance of store image to the customer types identified. The
study will help to set up a predictive model of store choice for customers and will
propose an ideal store format to match with store attribute rating of food and grocery
customers.

1.9 Organization of Thesis

The entire thesis is divided into six chapters which are summarized as follows:

Chapter 1 entitled Introduction provides the historic development of data mining and
retailing in India. This chapter also provides the background material for the research
problem. The objectives, scope and significance of the study have been clearly outlined
in this chapter.

Chapter 2 entitled Review of Literature provides the theoretical and conceptual

framework of the research. This chapter reviews the work done in the field of interest
identified since 1983. The period for this research is purposively selected so as to ensure
that the technology under review i.e. Data Mining; has had sufficient time to prove its
usefulness in prediction and in ensuring its use brings positive results to organizations.
Some of the objectives of the literature review for this research are to ensure:
No important variable having an impact on the problem is ignored
Time is not wasted on a research that has already been satisfactorily conducted
Testability and replicability of the findings are enhanced
The investigations are scientific and significant

The major concepts and technologies reviewed are: Data Mining and Business
Intelligence; Customer Segmentation and Profiling; Store Image/ Attributes; Predictive

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modeling through Data Mining; Cluster analysis; Factor analysis; Multiple regression
Analysis

This chapter identifies all the important variables and seeks to identify the gaps in the
research done in the field both in India and abroad.

Chapter 3 entitled Data Mining: An Overview discusses the various data mining
concepts, functionalities, tools and techniques. The disciplines of statistics and data
mining have also been discussed to prove that these areas are highly interrelated and
share a symbiotic relationship. This chapter also helps to gain a major understanding of
the various data mining algorithms and the way these can be utilized in various business
applications and the way these algorithms can be used in the descriptive and predictive
data mining modeling. The chapter ends with the discussion on the selection of
appropriate data mining techniques in a particular scenario.

Chapter 4 entitled Research Methodology discusses the research design in terms of

the type of research, the sampling plan, and the designing of the survey instrument
(questionnaire). This chapter also gives the detailed description on the various data
mining techniques that have been used to achieve the research objectives like (1) Two-
Step cluster analysis (2) Chi- square test (3) Factor analysis and (4) Multiple regression
analysis.

Chapter 5 entitled Results and Analysis relates to the data analysis of the data
collected through the survey and the interpretations are mentioned so that meaningful
recommendations and conclusions can be drawn. The analysis was performed using the
various data mining techniques like: (1) Two- Step cluster analysis this technique is
used for identifying clusters of customers based on their homogeneous groupings drawn
from an, otherwise, set of heterogeneous customer data base (2) Chi- square test- this is
intended to test how likely it is that an observed distribution is due to chance. It is also
called a "goodness of fit" statistic (3) Factor analysis this technique is used for data
preprocessing and for reducing the data to a manageable level which can be used for
further analysis such as modeling and suitable interpretation; and (4) Multiple regression

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analysis- this predictive data mining modeling technique is used to predict the dependent
variable (in this case Store Loyalty) on the basis of the independent variables (in this
case Store image dimensions/ attributes).

The final chapter 6 discusses the Conclusion and Future Scope of the study. The
customer groups identified are store-loyals and store non-loyals. The non-loyals present a
significantly large group and retailers need to understand the typical profile of such
customers so that suitable strategies can be formulated targeting them. The importance of
various customer variables has also been identified. The six salient store attributes
dimensions that have emerged have been discussed and suggestions have been put forth
for the benefit of retailers and researchers in future.

1.10 Conclusion

This Chapter starts with the discussions on the concepts of database management
systems, data warehousing and then data mining. It provides the historic development of
data mining and retailing in India. This chapter also provides the background material for
the research problem. The objectives, scope and significance of the study have also been
clearly outlined in this chapter.

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