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Henry Fund
Henry B. Tippie School of Management
Jon Kerr [jonathan-kerr@uiowa.edu]
Apple Inc. (AAPL) November 8, 2015
Consumer Goods Electronic Equipment Stock Rating Buy
Investment Thesis Target Price $145 - $155
Apple has always been known as an innovative company giving customers Henry Fund DCF $153.26
the best possible user experience. The company has built a product Henry Fund DDM $149.46
ecosystem integrating their products into all aspects of people lives. The Relative P/E Multiple $147.91
Apple brand image allows the company to charge premium prices for each of Price Data
their products. The premium prices create high margins and high profits for
Current Price $121.06
the company. Recent enhancements to existing products and new product
releases in new markets will generate continued growth. Increased
52wk Range $92.00 - $134.54
investment in research and development will drive innovation into the Consensus 1yr Target $148.88
future. Apples brand image and continued innovation has Apple positioned Key Statistics
well for future success. Market Cap (B) $674.9
Shares Outstanding (B) 5.58
Drivers of Thesis Institutional Ownership 60.20%
Apple has created a premium brand image and product ecosystem that is Five Year Beta 1.09
difficult for competitors to duplicate. The product ecosystem gives Apple Dividend Yield 1.84%
a competitive advantage in every market they compete in and will Est. 5yr Growth 15.34%
continue to drive company growth in the future.
Price/Earnings (TTM) 12.44
The iPhone is positioned as the premium brand of smartphone in a
Price/Sales (TTM) 2.87
mature but still growing industry. Continued growth is expected driven
by Asian countries such as China and India with relatively low smartphone Debt/Equity 54.0%
penetration. Profitability
Apple has released the Apple Watch, which enters them into the booming Operating Margin 30.48%
wearables market. This could be a huge revenue source in a market that Net Profit Margin 22.85%
is expected to grow 28.1% per year into 2019. Return on Assets (TTM) 20.84%
Return on Equity (TTM) 46.25%
Risks to Thesis AAPL Industry Sector
Apple is highly dependent on the iPhone product line, which consistently 50
accounts for more than 50% of profits.
40 46.3
Apple competes in competitive and fast-paced industries. If consumers
begin to treat the markets Apple competes is as commodity markets, 30
Apple will have a difficult time charging premium prices and maintaining 31.2
high margins. 20
22.9
10 17.1 16.3
Earnings Estimates 12.4 14.2 13.0
5.2
Year 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 0
EPS $5.72 $6.49 $9.28 $9.70 $10.33 $11.02 P/E ROE Prot Margin
Growth -10.34% 13.54% 42.95% 4.51% 6.54% 6.68% Source: Yahoo Finance
12 Month Performance Company Description
Apple designs and manufacturers numerous
AAPL S&P 500 electronic devices including mobile phones,
25%
20%
personal computers, watches, portable
digital music players, and other media
15%
devices, as well as software and services.
10% The cornerstone of the company is the
5% iPhone product line, but other important
0% product lines include the iPad, Mac, and
-5%
iTunes. The company sells these products
Source: Yahoo Finance worldwide to individual consumers and in
-10%
N D J F M A M J J A S O
the enterprise and education markets.
Page 2
Apple also has a line of multi-purpose tablets called the to increase at a 17.4% CAGR into 2020 and become 8.0%
iPad. The iPad generated $23.2 billion in 2015, 9.9% of of total revenue.
the companys revenue. The iPad was released in 2010
and had seen tremendous growth until 2014 when unit Segment Revenue Growth
shipments dropped from 71 million to 68 million with
iPad revenues decreasing 5.3%. Apple is still the global 2015 % 2016 % Rev.
2015 2016 Total Total Growth
leader in the tablet market, maintaining the highest Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue Rate
market share of tablet shipments for all tablet
iPhone $155,041 $159,692 66.3% 65.1% 3.0%
manufacturers. However, due to the increasing number
iPad $23,227 $23,692 9.9% 9.7% 2.0%
of players in this market, Apples market share has
Mac $25,471 $26,235 10.9% 10.7% 3.0%
decreased from 61.5% in Q2 2011 to 24.5% in Q2 2015. (3)
iTunes, Software
No one company has been the main catalyst for Apples and Services $19,909 $21,502 8.5% 8.8% 8.0%
decreased market share; it has been numerous
Accessories $10,067 $14,094 4.3% 5.7% 40.0%
companies that have chipped away at their market
Total Revenue $233,715 $245,214 100.0% 100.0% 4.9%
dominance. We expect revenue from the tablet to Source: Apple 2015 10-K
(1)
reverse the decreasing trend in 2016 and have a slight
increase in revenue of 2%. Overall, we forecast the iPad Geographic Diversification
revenues to increase at a 5.9% CAGR from 2015 to 2020.
Apple generates revenue through six different operating
Mac is the companys line of laptop computer and segments. The segments are broken down into regions
desktop computers. Mac computers contributed $25.5 based on the nature and location of its customers.
billion to the companys revenue in 2015, 10.9% of total
sales. Mac sales have been fairly steady for the company
since 2008 with revenues and number of units shipped FY 2015 Regional Sales
increasing each year except in 2013. We expect sales to
increase 3% to $26.2 billion in 2016. We expect Mac
sales to grow at a constant 3% into 2020. 6%
Since Apple has 60% of revenue in foreign sales, currency Apple is expecting 2016 Q1 revenue to be between $75.5
exchange rates have a major impact on company profits. billion and $77.5 billion, a slight increase from 2015 Q1
Apple CFO Luca Maestri said in the 2014 earnings calls, revenues of $74.6 billion. They expect to maintain their
We prefer to adjust local pricing at the time of new current gross margin between 39% and 40% and have
product launches. So if currency fluctuates after a operating expenses of $6.35 billion. We have modeled
product has been launched, Apple would rather have 2016 revenue to be $245.2 billion with net income of
reduced revenue and margins than reduced unit sales $52.7 billion, growth of 4.9% and -1.3%, respectively. We
due to higher prices. Maestri did say the company has expect net income to decline slightly due to an increase in
currency hedges and as their current hedging contracts operating expenses.
expire, the company will entire into new hedging
contracts at current levels. Maestri also stated that Apple Watch Shipments
revenue growth in Q1 2015 would have been 4% higher
had currency not affected results. (5) During the 3rd quarter of 2015, Apple began shipping the
Apple Watch. The Apple Watch will provide large growth
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS in revenue in the accessories segment of the company.
As well, the watch will help drive revenues of other Apple
In late 2014, Apple released their largest iPhone yet, the products and help enhance the Apple ecosystem of
iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 plus. The phone added addition products. The Apple Watch allows the company to enter
functionality to previous models but biggest difference a previously untapped and growing wearables market
was the screen size, which increased to 4.7 and 5.5 and compete against the Samsung Gear, Pebble Steel,
responding to consumer demand for larger screens. On Sony SmartWatch, and others. The number of devices
September 9, 2015, Apple had its new product release sold in the smart wearable market is expected to grow at
event. The company released a new iPhone 6s and 6s a 28.1% CAGR into 2019 and reach 89.4 million units. (7)
Plus with some enhanced features but the iPhone
product line is already seeing tremendous growth. We do Analysts estimate that apple sold 3.6 million units in the
not expect the new phones to significantly increase that quarter. This equates to approximately $1.6 billion in
growth. Apple also released a 12.9 iPad Pro to target revenue. After selling the watch in a test market of 100
the enterprise market. An updated Apple TV was stores, Best Buy has announced they will begin selling the
unveiled as Apple attempts to become an integral part of device in all 1,050 of its stores because of the better than
consumers living rooms. expected demand.
Apple has expanded its product ecosystem in 2015. The An issue of the Apple Watch is that it has limited
biggest move from the company was the release of the functionality when not paired with a cell phone.
Apple Watch to take advantage of the booming Therefore the Apple Watch is a phone accessory and is
wearables industry. As well, using their 2014 Beats only compatible with the iPhone 5 and newer. This
Audio acquisition, the company has started competing in compatibility issue limits the customer base of the Apple
the streaming audio market with Apple Music. Watch. Since 2012, the iPhone has averaged
approximately 16% market share of new smartphone
Q4 and FY 2015 Earnings shipments. Therefore the watch is limited to only 16% of
the smartphone market size. (8)
Page 4
Apple Music
19.7%
service, called Apple Music, was launched at the end of
18.2%
17.5%
17.1%
16.6%
June 2015.
15.2%
20.0%
14.4%
14.1%
13.0%
12.8%
11.7%
11.7%
15.0% Apple Music differentiates itself from Spotify and other
competitors by offering three additional features other
10.0% than just streaming music. Apple Music has a radio
service called Beats 1, which is an around-the-clock global
5.0%
live broadcast from DJs located in Los Angeles, New York,
0.0% and London. The second feature Apple Music uses to
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 differentiate itself is curated playlists created by real
'12 '12 '12 '12 '13 '13 '13 '13 '14 '14 '14 '14 '15 '15
people. The playlists are built for the listener based on
the users favorite genres and artists. The last unique
Source: IDC
(8)
feature is Connect. This is a social networking feature,
Even with the limited market, we expect total revenues which lets fans follow artists.
for the watch in 2015 to be $3 billion with that number
Apple Music has the potential to cannibalize revenue
growing to $6 billion in 2016. We expect Apple Watch
from Apples iTunes music store, as some customers will
revenues to reach $14 billion in 2020. With an average
no longer buy music through iTunes a la carte style.
price of $450 for an Apple Watch, this would equate to
Instead customers may only pay the $9.99 monthly
31.2 million units sold in 2020, approximately 11% of
subscription fee for Apple Music and stream their music
iPhone unit sales. We feel our estimation of Apple Watch
rather than owning it. This subscription fee is equal to
sales are reasonable as a Credit Suisse survey of iPhone
Spotifys Premium subscription of $9.99. Also equivalent
6/6Plus owners indicates that 18% of the respondents
to Spotify is Apple Music will allow users to download
would definitely buy the watch. (9)
albums for offline listening. We believe Apple Music will
over take the iTunes Music Store as the biggest revenue
iPhone 6/6+ Users Who Will Buy generator in the iTunes, Software, and Services segment
and we have forecasted revenue for the segment to grow
an Apple Watch
at a 5.8% CAGR into 2020.
Apple Pay
Yes,
Denitely Denitely On October 20, 2014, Apple released Apple Pay. This is a
Not 18% mobile payments service which is designed to allow users
18% to make payments for good and services in retail stores
Yes, using an iPhone 6, iPhone 6 Plus, or Apple Watch. For
Probably
security, Apple uses tokenization, which prevents actual
11%
Probably
credit card numbers from being sent over the air. Apple
Not Pay aims at replacing the wallet. Apple CEO Tim Cook has
27% said that Apple Pay will forever change the way all of us
Maybe buy things. (10) Apple Pay has seen some early success
27% with a growing list of partners. On July 7, Apple added 23
more U.S. banks and credit unions, which brings the total
to 461 Apple Pay partners in the United States and 9 in
the UK. (11)
Source: Credit Suisse
(9)
Page 5
Apple generates money from Apple Pay by charging fees growth and increased penetration. The mobile phone
when consumers use the service in place of credit and market is by far the most important in the industry
debit card for purchases. Apple Pay does offer a benefit because of the volume of shipments and revenue.
to both the transaction partner and the user. Apple pay
offers an extra layer of security with a Touch ID Smartphone Growth
fingerprint feature. This feature delivers proof that both
the mobile device and the authorized cardholder are Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments
physically present in the store.
300
248
219.9
100
INDUSTRY TRENDS
19
50
0
The electronics industries that Apple competes in are fast 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018*
paced and extremely competitive. Mobile devices
including smartphones and smart wearables are seeing Source: Statista
(14)
Page 6
The tablet market had seen tremendous growth with
worldwide shipments increasing from 19 million units in Global Desktop and Laptop
2010 to almost 220 million units in 2013. However, the Shipments
year-over-year growth rate slowed to 4.4% in 2014,
compared to 100.7% and 53.3% growth in 2012 and 2013, 400 364 349
respectively. The preference of consumers towards 350 315 308
smartphones with larger screens is having a negative 300
282 279 282
Millions of units
impact on tablet sales. IDC expects Tablet sales to
250
continue to be slow in 2015 with shipments of 248 million
units, an increase of 8%. By 2018, worldwide shipments 200
are expected to reach 286 million units, a 4-year CAGR of 150
5.6%. (14) 100
0
As of August 13, 2015, new Verizon customers will have 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2016* 2019*
to provide their own phone or buy one under an
Source: Statista
(17)
installment plan. T-Mobile started this trend in 2013 and
all four major cell phone providers are following suit. In
Music Downloads vs Streaming
the past, a consumer who signed up for a two-year
contract could also purchase a new smartphone for a In 1999, when the online music sharing service Napster
subsidized price typically around $199. Apple iPhone, was launched, consumers of the music industry shifted
Samsung Galaxy or other devices retail for up to $700. how they acquired their music from purchasing a physical
The pricing model for the service providers monthly fee product with recorded music to downloading songs and
had the cost of the phone built into it and the consumer albums through the internet. A new transition is
would eventually pay for the remaining cost of the happening in the music industry with consumers
phone. However, the full price of the phone was usually changing how they access music. Rather than owning
unknown to the consumer. Without the subsidies, the music by purchasing and downloading songs, customers
full cost of the phone is more visible to consumer and are renting their music through ad-supported and
price-sensitive consumers could change their buying subscription based streaming music services.
habits. In Q4 2014 the average Apple iPhone cost was
$687 while Android devices had an average price of In 2007, 3% of the music industry revenues were
$254.(15) This now visible price disparity could shift attributed to streaming music services. In 2014, that
consumers away from the more expensive iPhone. number had risen to 21% of total revenues. (18) According
to PricewaterhouseCoopers, revenue from digital music
PC Sales streaming is expected to grow to $2.76 billion in 2018, a
13.4% CAGR. While digital music downloading revenue
The introduction of the tablet and large screen will grow at a rate of only 3.3%. (19)
smartphones has had an adverse affect on PC and laptop
sales, which have been declining since 2011. According The number of users streaming music is expected to
to IDC, Q2 2015 PC shipments for the top 5 vendors increase from 129.4 million in 2015 to 168.3 million in
decreased 11.8% over the past year. Apple is the only 2020, a CAGR of 5.4%. While the number of users
company in the group to have a year-over-year increase downloading music is expected to decrease from 65.6
in PC shipments with growth of 16.1% in Q2 2015. IDC is million in 2015 to 63.8 million in 2020. (20)
forecasting overall PC shipments to remain steady in the
near future with growth of zero to -3%. (16)
Page 7
MARKETS AND COMPETITION
The markets that Apple competes in are characterized by
constant innovation and short product life cycles. Due to
these characteristics, products eventually face maturity
and obsolescence.
Smartphone Market
The smartphone market is a massive and fast paced
market with products constantly being updated and
enhanced due to quickly evolving technologies. Product
lifecycles are short in the industry with the major
manufactures releasing new generations of products
every year or two. Also, consumers usually have the
opportunity to upgrade their existing phone to the next
generation every couple of years when their contract
with a service provider expires.
Samsung Apple Huawi Xiaomi Lenevo Others Most companies within the market compete based on
2015Q2 21.4% 13.9% 8.7% 5.6% 4.7% 45.7% price and features, except for Apple who is able to charge
2014Q2 24.8% 11.6% 6.7% 4.6% 8.0% 44.3% a premium for the iPhone. While other companies are
2013Q2 31.9% 12.9% 4.3% 1.7% 5.7% 43.6% decreasing smartphone sales prices, Apple is increasing.
In FY2014 the average cost of the iPhone was $603. In
2012Q2 32.2% 16.6% 4.1% 1.0% 5.9% 40.2%
Source: IDC
(21) FY2015, that number increased to $671. The price of the
iPhone is expected to fall but only to $635 by 2018.
The top five companies in the industry by market share Android, which has a much lower average price due to
are Samsung, Apple, Huawei, Xiaomi, and Lenovo. the wide range of high and low-end phones, is expected
Samsung is the market leader retaining 21.4% market to have a similar trend dropping from $254 in 2014 to
share in Q2 of 2015. However, the smartphone market is $214 in 2018. (23) These declining prices could indicate
a competitive market with 45.7% of the market being that the market has become commoditized and cost will
served by companies outside the top five in the become the main driver for market share as handsets
industry.(21) While all the companies compete on market begin to contain identical features.
share, Apple dominates the market in terms industry
profits. In the first quarter of 2015, Apple recorded 92% Even with falling average prices, growth is still available
of the total operating income from the industries top especially outside the US and Europe in countries with
eight smartphone manufacturers, up from 65% in Q1 low smartphone penetration. We expect iPhone unit
2014. Together, Apple and Samsung account for more sales to be 247.6 million in 2016 with that number
than 100% of industry profits as other manufacturers lost increasing to 274.4 million in 2020, a 3.5% CAGR.
money in the quarter. (22)
Tablet Market
The tablet market is very similar to the smartphone
market. Companies compete in the market with features
and price. The life expectancy of tablets is slightly longer
than smartphones due to less usage, which leads to less
damage. In 2015, the lifespan of a tablet is expected to
be 26 months, compared to an 18-month life for
smartphones in the US. Even with longer life cycles,
Page 8
products are constantly being updated and enhanced due Surface Pro 3 tablet. The new iPad was designed
to quickly evolving technologies. specifically with businesses in mind. Apple added a
standalone keyboard to make this Apples first 2-in-1.
Top Five Tablet Vendors Market Share While only a small percentage of the overall tablet
market, 2-in-1s are expected to have a 5-year CAGR of
2Q15 2Q14 57% while traditional tablets will have a 5-year CAGR of
2Q15 Unit Market 2Q14 Unit Market Y-o-Y
Shipments Share Shipments Share Growth
2%. We believe Apple will continue to lose market share
but sales will begin to increase in 2016 due to the new
Apple 10.9 24.5% 13.3 27.7% -17.9%
iPad Pro. Overall we believe iPad revenues will have a
Samsung 7.6 17.0% 8.6 18.0% -12.0%
5.94% CAGR from 2015 to 2020, maintaining
Lenovo 2.5 5.7% 2.4 5.7% 6.8% approximately 11% of total company value.
Huawei 1.6 3.7% 0.8 3.7% 103.6%
LG Wearable Market
Electronics 1.6 3.6% 0.5 3.6% 246.4%
Others 20.4 45.6% 22.4 46.7% -9.3% Smart wearable technology refers to any electronic
Source: IDC
(24)
device, which can be worn by a person to integrate
The top five companies in the industry are Apple, computing into daily activities. This can include devices
Samsung, Lenovo, LG and Huawei. Four of the top five such as eyewear, wrist wear, and foot wear. Companies
companies in the industry are the same leaders in the compete in this industry with features and smartphone
smartphone industry, with the exception of LG replacing compatibility. Many wearable devices must be paired
Xiaomi. Apple is the market leader with 24.5% market with a smartphone to take advantage of all the features
share in Q2 of 2015. However, Apples market share has of the device. The Samsung watch can only be paired
decreased from 61.5% in Q2 of 2011. Much like the with phones running the Android operating system. The
smartphone market, the tablet market is a competitive Apple Watch can only be paired with an iPhone 5 or
market with 45.6% of the market being served by newer.
companies outside the top five in the industry. (24)
The market is in its early stage of development but is
During 2011 to 2013 there was steady growth in the expected to hit an inflection point in 2015 driven by the
tablet market. However, there was a market slow down Apple Watch. In 2014, approximately 4.2 million smart
in 2014 as smartphones screens have become larger. watches were sold. During 2015, Apple alone shipped
almost 7 million Apple watches. (34) The total smart
wearables market is expected to increase from 4.2
Global Tablet Shipment Forecast million units shipped in 2014 to 33.1 million units in 2015,
an increase of 688%. Shipments are expected to reach
350 89.4 million units in 2019, a 28.1% 4-year CAGR. (7)
300 276 286 269.4
263
248
250 220 229.6 Unit Shipment forecast basic/
Millions of units
200
145
smart wearables worldwide
200
150
Unit Shipments in Millions
100 76
150
50 19
0 89.4
100
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015*
2016*
2017*
2018*
2019*
50 33.1
Source: IDC
(25)
4.2 66.3
39.0
There are still growth opportunities in the tablet industry. 22.1
0
Manufacturers are beginning to target the enterprise 2014 2015 2019
market to attempt to replace PCs. Apple just released Basic Wearables Smart Wearables
their new 12.9 iPad Pro to compete with Microsofts
Source: IDC
(7)
Page 9
PC Market from the entire Apple ecosystem. Apple has an
extremely large customer following with more than 800
The PC market is a very mature market and is on the million iPhones sold since it was first released in 2007. (1)
decline mainly due to businesses extending their upgrade The iPhone has given the Apple experience to millions of
cycles. Life spans of PCs are increasing because the pace customers. We believe these customers are continuing
of change has slowed. The technology of computer with the Apple experience by switching to a Mac when it
hardware has outpaced the technology of computer is time to upgrade their PC. We expect Mac unit sales to
software, which has extended the life of PCs. According be 21.5 million units in 2016. We then expect Mac unit
to Daniel Research Group, the average lifespan of a sales to increase at a 4.5% CAGR into 2020.
desktop PC in 2012 was 3.97 years. The lifespan has
increased to 4.6 years in 2015. Another reason for the Peer Comparison
decline in PC sales is consumers have been replacing PCs
with tablets. In Q2 2015, shipments fell to 66.1 million Apple competes in multiple markets of the technology
units, an 11.8% year-over-year decline. The decline of PC hardware industry. Apple competes in mature markets
shipments should slow with the total volume shipped with its top revenue generating products. Therefore our
forecast to be 293.1 million in 2015, declining slightly to peer analysis is focused on profitability metrics.
291.4 million in 2019. (26)
Samsung is Apples largest competitor in both the
PCs are becoming commodities as the feature set smartphone and tablet market. In Samsungs last fiscal
becomes more and more common among competing year, they had sales of $195.9 Billion USD while apple had
companies. Companies in the industry are now sales of $233.7 Billion. HP and Lenovo have the largest
competing strictly on price. In 2009, the average selling market share in the PC market and these companies had
price of a desktop PC was $605. In 2015, the price is revenues of $111.5 Billion and $46.3 Billion in 2014.
expected to be $379. (28)
A metric that stands out among the rest is the Net Profit
The top 5 companies in the PC market are Lenovo, HP, Margin. The only market that Apple is the market leader
Dell, Apple and Acer Group. Lenovo is the market leader in is the tablet market. Yet, they have a net profit margin
with 20.3% market share in Q2 2015. Other companies that dwarfs all of their competing companies. Apples net
outside the top five hold 32.3% of the market. (27) profit margin percentage is 22.9%, compared to 13.1% for
Microsoft, second among the peer group. Samsung,
Worldwide PC Shipments 2Q 2015 Apples most formidable competitor, has a profit margin
of 11.2%. The difference in net profit margin percentage
2Q15 2Q14 is due to the brand image Apple has built which has
2Q15 Market 2Q14 Market Y-o-Y allowed them to charge a premium for all of their
Shipments Share Shipments Share Growth products. This brand image is what sets Apple apart from
Lenovo 13,444 20.3% 14,535 19.4% -7.5% their competitors.
HP 12,253 18.5% 13,675 18.2% -10.4%
Dell 9,560 14.5% 10,466 14.0% -8.7% Sales Net Profit ROA ROE P/E Debt/
Apple 5,136 7.8% 4,423 5.9% 16.1% (B) Margin % % % (ntm) Equity
Acer 4,334 6.6% 5,932 7.9% -26.9% Samsung 195.9 11.2 10.4 15.1 7.9 6.95
ASUS 4,330 6.5% 4,693 6.3% -7.7% HP 111.5 4.5 4.8 18.6 7.3 73.0
Others 17,082 25.8% 21,274 28.4% -19.7% Microsoft 93.6 13.1 7.0 14.4 15.6 44.1
Source: BGR
(27)
LG 48.9 0.98 1.6 4.9 11.8 77.0
Lenovo 46.3 1.8 3.7 23.4 17.2 74.8
Apple was the only manufacturer to see year-over-year
growth in the PC market. Apple saw a 16.1% increase in Blackberry 3.9 -9.1 -4.1 -8.3 - 49.8
shipments in Q2 2015 and increased its market share Apple 233.7 22.9 20.8 46.3 13.0 56.4
from 5.9% to 7.8%. Apple also does not compete on price Source: FactSet
96
20.7%
$16.0 25.0%
1-Jan-10
1-Jun-10
1-Nov-10
1-Apr-11
1-Sep-11
1-May-13
1-Dec-12
1-Aug-14
1-Jan-15
1-Oct-13
1-Jul-12
1-Feb-12
1-Mar-14
$12.1
$11.5
$14.0
14.9%
20.0%
$9.8
$12.0
12.9%
$8.1
Billions USD
$8.0
7.3%
10.0%
Many of the products that Apple produces are
$6.0
4.4%
3.0
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
2.0
While the iPad and MAC are becoming more and more
1.0
popular in the business world, the majority of Apples
revenues are from sales to consumers. Therefore, a good 0.0
Dec-12
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Dec-14
Jun-15
Sep-12
Sep-13
Sep-14
Sep-15
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Page 11
One factor that affects consumer spending is the CATALYSTS FOR GROWTH
unemployment rate. Unemployed people are trying to
stretch their financial assets for a longer duration due to iPhone
the uncertainty of the end of their unemployment. This
leads to a reduction in consumer spending due to Apple recently released the iPhone 6s and 6s Plus. The
financial limitations. We expect the unemployment rate most significant difference between the 6s and the 6 is
to maintain a level around 5.1% in the next 6 months, the 3D touch technology that allows the 6s iPhones to
which should keep consumer spending from decreasing. sense different pressures. The new phone have received
great reviews from the public. The new iPhone release
Unemployment Rate: All Persons and the recently announced installment plan could drive
Aged 15-64: U.S. further growth in the iPhone product line.
9.0
The iPhone product line accounted for more than two-
8.5 thirds of the companys revenue in 2015. The iPhone will
8.0 continue to be Apples largest source of revenue.
7.5 Because of the dependency on the iPhone, the company
Percent
Page 13
The next largest segment is the Mac computer, percent of revenue is low when compared to peers.
accounting for 11% of revenue in 2015. The PC market Samsung, Apples biggest rival in the smartphone market,
has been in decline since 2011. We expect the industry has an R&D expense as a percent of revenue of 7.3%. We
to have roughly zero growth into 2019. However, we expect Apple to continue increase their level of R&D. We
believe the Mac will continue to steal market share from have modeled the R&D expense to be 3.9% in 2016 and
competitors and have modeled revenues to grow at a 4.2% into 2020.
3.0% CAGR for the next five years.
We have also modeled SG&A expenses to begin to
The iPad line of tablets is the third largest segment for increase to 2011 levels, accounting for 7.5% of revenue in
Apple, accounting for 9.9% of revenue in 2015. We 2020. With the increase in operating expenses and
expect revenues to begin to pick back up in 2016 as Apple decrease in gross margins, we have modeled Apples
targets the enterprise sector with the new iPad Pro. We operating income to decrease from 30.5% in 2015 to
expect revenues for the iPad to grow at a 5.9% CAGR for 28.9% in 2016 before declining to 25.8% in 2020.
the next 5 years and accounting for 11.0% of revenue in
2020.
Operabng Prots
Since 2009, the iTunes, Software and Service segment has
90000 38%
grown at 21% CAGR. With the addition of Apple Music,
Operabng Margin %
70000 34%
do not believe the segment will keep the same pace of 60000 32%
growth it has had the last 6 years. We modeled revenues 50000 30%
to grow at a 5.8% five-year CAGR. 40000 28%
30000 26%
20000 24%
Most of the new growth for the company will come from
10000 22%
the Accessories segment. The new Apple Watch and 0 20%
Apple TV will drive the growth for this segment. We have
modeled revenues for this segment to increase at a
17.4% CAGR for the next 5 years. In 2015, the
Op Prot Op Margin %
Accessories segment accounted for only 4.3% of total
revenue, we expect this segment to increase to 8.0% of
total revenue by 2020. Overall, we have modeled total Source: Apple 10-K
company revenue to grow at a 3.84% CAGR for the next 5
years. In the third quarter of 2015, Apples Board of Directors
increased the share repurchase program to $140 billion,
For the last five years, Apples gross margins have ranged which has $36 billion remaining for repurchases. We
from 37.6% to 43.9%. In 2015, the gross margin was expect the board to announce another share repurchase
40.1%. The total gross margin is most affected by the program and average around $30 billion in repurchases
iPhone gross margin, which accounts for 66% of revenue. each year through 2020. With these share repurchases
The iPhone gross margin was approximately 47% in 2015. and the dividend payments, we have modeled the total
We expect company gross margins to decline slightly to payout ratio to increase slightly in 2016 from 87.4% to
39% in 2016 as the iPhone will face increased pricing 88.4%, with the payout ratio totaling 74.6% in 2020. With
pressure and the average sale price for an iPhone will these payout ratios, the company will have average cash
decrease from $671 in 2015 to $645 in 2016. We expect flows of $3.4 billion per year from 2016 to 2020, which is
company gross margin to decrease to 37.5% in 2020 as more than the average cash flow per year of $1.97 billion
the average cost of an iPhone drops to $630 and iPhone from 2011 to 2015.
gross margins drop to 43.5%.
With the release of the Apple Watch and the new Apple
In Apples 2015 annual report, they state that R&D is TV, as well as the new iPhone and iPad releases, we
critical to the survival of the company. From 2008 to expect inventories to rise slightly in 2016 and into 2020.
2014, the R&D expenses averaged 2.7% of revenue. We expect inventories will increase to 2008 levels when
However in 2015, Apple had a record R&D investment of the iPod was at its peak. Therefore we have modeled
$8.0 billion, or 3.45% of revenue. This R&D expense as a inventories to increase to 1.35% of revenue in 2016 into
2020.
Page 14
Capital expenditures are expected to be around $13 dash software into their vehicles. Chevrolet, Hyundai,
billion in 2016. Capital expenditures have been Honda, and Volkswagen are releasing 2016 vehicles with
increasing as a percent of revenue since 2009. We have Apple CarPlay. CarPlay allows Apple to extend the Apple
modeled this trend to continue with capital expenditures ecosystem into the car. The consumer demand for Apple
increasing from 4.4% of revenue in 2015 to 6.0% of CarPlay should be monitored, as it could be a significant
revenue in 2020. revenue source if all car manufacturers are forced to
jump on board to meet that demand.
There are currently 52 analysts covering Apple and they
have a consensus average estimate of 146.74. The REFERENCES
analysts target prices range from $115 to $200. Our price
range of $145 to $155 is within analysts estimates and is 1. Apple 2015 10-K
slightly higher than the consensus average estimate. Our 2. Statista, Global smartphone shipments forecast from
price range is a 20% to 28% premium over the current 2010 to 2019
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$132.07, and our price range is a 9.8% and 17.4% smartphone-shipments-forecast/
premium over that price. We based our price range on a 3. Global market share held by tablet vendors from 2nd
sensitivity analyses around the DCF price by varying quarter 2011 to 2nd quarter 2015
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4. BusinessInsider, April 8, 2015, The Smartphone
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line. The company has also had great marketing, which adoption-platform-and-vendor-trends-in-major-
has positioned each of its products as the premium brand mobile-markets-around-world-2015-3
in each respective market. The company has increased eMarketer.com, 12/22/2014, Majority of Chinas
their R&D expenditures in 2015 and we expect that trend Mobile Phone Users Will Use Smartphones Next
to continue in the future which will create more Year
innovation for the company. We believe the Apple http://www.emarketer.com/Article/Majority-of-
Watch will drive growth for the company in the booming Chinas-Mobile-Phone-Users-Will-Use-Smartphones-
wearables market. We believe iPhone sales will continue Next-Year/1011749
to increase as smartphones penetrate more and more of 5. BusinessInsider.com, 01/28/2015, Apple Just
the mobile phone users. The iPhone will continue to be Reported A Record Quarter, But Analysts Wanted To
the base product that Apple uses to find more and more Talk About Only The US Dollar Heres Why
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impacts-2015-1
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Fourth Quarter Results
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Reports-Record-Fourth-Quarter-Results.html
Not only is does the iPhone account for more than 50% of
7. IDC, 06/18/2015, Worldwide Wearable Market
revenues; it is also the center of the Apple ecosystem.
Forecast to Grow 173.3% in 2015
The company just released the iPhone 6s and 6s Plus but
http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS25
the differences from the previous version are subtle.
696715
Sales growth of the new models of the iPhone should be
8. Statista, Global Smartphone Operating System
monitored. If sales begin to drop for the iPhone, it could
Market Share held by Apple iOS
filter down to every other product segment within the
http://www.statista.com.proxy.lib.uiowa.edu/statisti
company.
cs/236031/market-share-of-ios-in-global-
smartphone-os-shipments/
Apple CarPlay
9. Survey of Apple Watch purchase intention suggests
Apple announced CarPlay nearly two years ago but car first year sales of 35M
manufacturers are just now finally integrating Apples in-
Page 15
http://9to5mac.com/2015/01/14/apple-watch-sales- http://www.wsj.com/articles/apples-share-of-
2/ smartphone-industrys-profits-soars-to-92-
10. MacRumors, Apple Pay Overview 1436727458
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https://support.apple.com/en-us/HT204916 http://www.computerworld.com/article/2489944/sm
12. CNN, Apple Pay wont add to Apples profit artphones/smartphone-prices-are-dropping--and-
http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/26/technology/appl will-continue-to-dip-through--18.html
e-pay/ 24. IDC, 08/29/2015, Worldwide Tablet Market
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cs/269912/worldwide-tablet-shipments-forecast/ but Apple Keeps Picking Up Steam
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to $687 and Android Decreases to $254, Says Report 11-8-percent-in-q2-but-apple-keeps-picking-up-
http://www.forbes.com/sites/amitchowdhry/2015/0 steam/
2/03/average-iphone-price-increases-to-687-and- 27. BGR.com, 07/11/2015, As PC sales implode, Apple
android-decreases-to-254-says-report/ Mac sales are surging
16. BusinessInsider, 07/10/2015, PC Sales are http://bgr.com/2015/07/11/mac-vs-pc-sales-2015/
Imploding 28. Statista, Average selling price of desktop PCs
http://www.businessinsider.com/pc-sales-plummet- worldwide from 2005 to 2015
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has Actually Stolen Business From iTunes 30. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 07/ 2015, Personal
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revenues-2014-3 https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PCE#
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revenue between 2013 and 2018 Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Broad
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20. Statista, Numbers of digital music users in the US Unemployment Rate
from 2014 to 2020 https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/LRUN64T
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outlook-usa/ shipments to more than double next year, analyst
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share.jsp 34. Canalys, November 4, 2015, Almost 7 million Apple
22. Wall Street Journal, 07/12/2015, Apples Share of Watches were shipped in 2 quarters of availability
Smartphone Industrys Profits Soars to 92%
Page 16
http://www.canalys.com/newsroom/almost-7-
million-apple-watches-were-shipped-two-quarters-
availability
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER
Henry Fund reports are created by student enrolled in the
Applied Securities Management (Henry Fund) program at
the University of Iowas Tippie School of Management.
These reports are intended to provide potential
employers and other interested parties an example of the
analytical skills, investment knowledge, and
communication abilities of Henry Fund students. Henry
Fund analysts are not registered investment advisors,
brokers or officially licensed financial professionals. The
investment opinion contained in this report does not
represent an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any of the
aforementioned securities. Unless otherwise noted, facts
and figures included in this report are from publicly
available sources. This report is not a complete
compilation of data, and its accuracy is not guaranteed.
From time to time, the University of Iowa, its faculty,
staff, students, or the Henry Fund may hold a financial
interest in the companies mentioned in this report.
Page 17
Apple
Revenue Decomposition
Fiscal Years Ending 09/30/2015 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
iPhone 91,279 101,991 155041 159692 162886 166144 169467 172856
iPad 31,980 30,283 23227 23692 26535 28657 30090 30993
Mac 21,483 24,079 25471 26235 27022 27833 28668 29528
iTunes, Software and Services 16,051 18,063 19909 21502 22792 24159 25367 26382
Accessories 10,117 8,379 10,067 14094 16913 19449 21394 22464
Total Revenue 170,910 182,795 233,715 245,214 256,147 266,243 274,986 282,223
iPhone Growth Rate 16.00% 11.74% 52.01% 3.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
iPad Growth Rate 3.34% -5.31% -23.30% 2.00% 12.00% 8.00% 5.00% 3.00%
Mac Growth Rate -7.48% 12.08% 5.78% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
iTunes, Software and Services Growth Rate 24.52% 12.54% 10.22% 8.00% 6.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00%
Accessories Growth Rate -5.98% -17.18% 20.15% 40.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00%
Total Revenue Growth Rate 9.20% 6.95% 27.86% 4.92% 4.46% 3.94% 3.28% 2.63%
$ per iPhone 607 603 671 645 640 635 630 630
$ per iPad 450 445 423 420 410 410 410 410
$ per Mac 1315 1274 1237 1220 1200 1180 1160 1150
Domestic Revenue % 45.0% 44.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0%
International Revenue % 55.0% 56.0% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0%
Apple
Income Statement
Fiscal Years Ending 09/30/2015 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Net sales 170,910 182,795 233,715 245,214 256,147 266,243 274,986 282,223
Cost of sales 99,849 104,312 128,832 138,212 145,709 152,138 158,214 161,411
Depreciation & Amortization 6,757 7,946 11,257 11,369 11,822 12,933 13,652 14,978
Gross margin 64,304 70,537 93,626 95,634 98,617 101,172 103,120 105,834
Research & development expense 4,475 6,041 8,067 9,563 10,758 11,182 11,549 11,853
Selling, general & administrative expense 10,830 11,993 14,329 15,203 15,881 16,507 17,049 17,498
Total operating expenses 15,305 18,034 22,396 24,767 26,639 27,689 28,599 29,351
Operating income (loss) 48,999 52,503 71,230 70,867 71,977 73,483 74,521 76,482
Total Other Income (expense) 1,156 980 1,285 1,348 1,309 1,422 1,558 1,696
Income (loss) before provision for income taxes 50,155 53,483 72,515 72,215 73,286 74,905 76,080 78,178
Provision for (benefit from) income taxes 13,118 13,973 19,121 19,509 19,799 20,236 20,553 21,120
Net income (loss) 37,037 39,510 53,394 52,706 53,488 54,669 55,526 57,058
Year end shares outstanding 6,294 5,866 5,578 5,289 5,063 4,855 4,665 4,491
Weighted average shares outstanding - basic 6,477 6,086 5,753 5,434 5,176 4,959 4,760 4,578
Net earnings (loss) per common share - basic 5.72 6.49 9.28 9.70 10.33 11.02 11.67 12.46
Cash dividends declared per common share 1.63 1.82 1.98 2.13 2.27 2.43 2.57 2.74
Apple
Balance Sheet
Fiscal Years Ending 09/30/2015 2,013 2,014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
ASSETS
Cash & cash equivalents 14,259 13,844 21,120 23,010 27,908 30,513 33,345 38,272
Short-term marketable securities 26,287 11,233 20,481 21,059 26,652 34,404 42,374 50,569
Accounts receivable, gross 13,201 17,546 16,931 18,391 19,211 19,968 20,624 21,167
Less: allowance for doubtful accounts 99 86 82 92 96 100 103 106
Vendor non-trade receivables 7,539 9,759 13,494 13,409 14,007 14,559 15,037 15,432
Accounts receivable, net 20,641 27,219 30,343 31,708 33,122 34,427 35,558 36,493
Other current assets 6,882 9,806 9,539 12,996 13,576 14,111 14,574 14,958
Total current assets 69,833 64,213 83,832 92,083 104,716 117,049 129,564 144,103
Long-term marketable securities 106,215 130,162 164,065 178,418 184,435 189,664 194,606 199,595
Gross property, plant & equipment 28,519 39,015 49,257 62,008 75,840 90,750 106,699 123,632
Accumulated depreciation 11,922 18,391 26,786 38,115 49,897 62,789 76,402 91,340
Property, plant & equipment, net 16,597 20,624 22,471 23,893 25,943 27,960 30,297 32,292
Total assets 203,547 227,521 284,933 309,003 329,916 349,686 369,641 391,290
Accrued warranty & related costs 2,967 4,159 5,843 6,130 6,404 6,656 6,875 7,056
Accrued marketing & selling expenses 1,291 2,321 2,794 2,889 3,017 3,136 3,239 3,325
Income taxes payable 1,200 1,209 1,721 1,853 1,881 1,922 1,953 2,006
Accrued compensation & employee benefits 959 1,209 1,433 1,444 1,509 1,568 1,620 1,662
Deferred margin on component sales 1,262 1,057 2,337 2,452 2,561 2,662 2,750 2,822
Other current liabilities 6,177 8,498 11,053 11,648 12,167 12,647 13,062 13,406
Accrued expenses 13,856 18,453 25,181 26,416 27,539 28,592 29,498 30,277
Total current liabilities 36,223 54,957 71,670 74,849 76,998 78,844 80,558 82,191
Total Deferred Taxes (Liabilities - Assets) 13,036 15,941 18,516 21,850 22,966 23,878 24,253 25,344
Total Deferred Revenue 10,060 11,522 12,564 14,880 15,544 16,156 16,687 17,126
Long-term debt 16,960 28,987 53,463 66,007 71,557 75,564 79,858 84,143
Other liabilities 3,719 4,567 9,365 6,628 6,923 7,196 7,432 7,628
Total Other non-current liabilities 30,739 45,076 75,392 87,515 94,024 98,916 103,978 108,896
Total Liabilities 79,998 115,974 165,578 184,215 193,988 201,638 208,789 216,432
Stockholders' Equity:
Common stock and Additional Paid in Capital 19,764 23,313 27,416 27,420 27,425 27,429 27,434 27,434
Retained earnings 104,256 87,152 92,284 97,713 108,847 120,963 133,763 147,769
Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) -471 1,082 -345 -345 -345 -345 -345 -345
Total shareholders' equity 123,549 111,547 119,355 124,788 135,927 148,047 160,852 174,858
Total Liabilites and Stockholders' Equity 203,547 227,521 284,933 309,003 329,915 349,685 369,640 391,290
Apple
Cash Flow Statement
Cash & cash equivalents, beginning of the year 11,261 9,815 10,746 14,259 13,844
Cash & cash equivalents, end of the year 9,815 10,746 14,259 13,844 21,120
Apple
Forecasted Cash Flow Statement
Net cash flows from operating activities 64,628 67,799 69,798 70,660 74,072
Net cash flows from investing activities -30,121 -27,182 -29,129 -29,746 -30,747
Net cash flows from financing activities -32,617 -35,717 -38,064 -38,081 -38,398
Cash & cash equivalents, beginning of year 21,120 23,010 27,908 30,513 33,345
Cash & cash equivalents, end of year 23,010 27,908 30,513 33,345 38,272
Apple
Common Size Income Statement
Fiscal Years Ending 09/30/2015 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Net sales 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Cost of sales 58.42% 57.07% 55.12% 56.36% 56.88% 57.14% 57.54% 57.19%
Depreciation & Amortization 3.95% 4.35% 4.82% 4.64% 4.62% 4.86% 4.96% 5.31%
Gross margin 37.62% 38.59% 40.06% 39.00% 38.50% 38.00% 37.50% 37.50%
Research & development expense 2.62% 3.30% 3.45% 3.90% 4.20% 4.20% 4.20% 4.20%
Selling, general & administrative expense 6.34% 6.56% 6.13% 6.20% 6.20% 6.20% 6.20% 6.20%
Total operating expenses 8.96% 9.87% 9.58% 10.10% 10.40% 10.40% 10.40% 10.40%
Operating income (loss) 28.67% 28.72% 30.48% 28.90% 28.10% 27.60% 27.10% 27.10%
Interest income 0.95% 0.98% 0.00% 1.37% 1.42% 1.46% 1.51% 1.56%
Interest expense -0.08% -0.21% 0.00% -0.48% -0.57% -0.59% -0.60% -0.62%
Other income (expense), net -0.19% -0.24% 0.55% -0.34% -0.34% -0.34% -0.34% -0.34%
Income (loss) before provision for income taxes 29.35% 29.26% 31.03% 29.45% 28.61% 28.13% 27.67% 27.70%
Provision for (benefit from) income taxes 7.68% 7.64% 8.18% 7.96% 7.73% 7.60% 7.47% 7.48%
Net income (loss) 21.67% 21.61% 22.85% 21.49% 20.88% 20.53% 20.19% 20.22%
Apple
Common Size Balance Sheet
Fiscal Years Ending 09/30/2015 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
ASSETS
Cash & cash equivalents 8.34% 7.57% 9.04% 9.38% 10.90% 11.46% 12.13% 13.56%
Short-term marketable securities 15.38% 6.15% 8.76% 8.59% 10.41% 12.92% 15.41% 17.92%
Accounts receivable, gross 7.72% 9.60% 7.24% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50%
Less: allowance for doubtful accounts 0.06% 0.05% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04%
Vendor non-trade receivables 4.41% 5.34% 5.77% 5.47% 5.47% 5.47% 5.47% 5.47%
Accounts receivable, net 12.08% 14.89% 12.98% 12.93% 12.93% 12.93% 12.93% 12.93%
Other current assets 4.03% 5.36% 4.08% 5.30% 5.30% 5.30% 5.30% 5.30%
Total current assets 40.86% 35.13% 35.87% 37.55% 40.88% 43.96% 47.12% 51.06%
Long-term marketable securities 62.15% 71.21% 70.20% 72.76% 72.00% 71.24% 70.77% 70.72%
Gross property, plant & equipment 16.69% 21.34% 21.08% 25.29% 29.61% 34.09% 38.80% 43.81%
Accumulated depreciation & amortization 6.98% 10.06% 11.46% 15.54% 19.48% 23.58% 27.78% 32.36%
Property, plant & equipment, net 9.71% 11.28% 9.61% 9.74% 10.13% 10.50% 11.02% 11.44%
Total assets 119.10% 124.47% 121.91% 126.01% 128.80% 131.34% 134.42% 138.65%
Accrued warranty & related costs 1.74% 2.28% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
Accrued marketing & selling expenses 0.76% 1.27% 1.20% 1.18% 1.18% 1.18% 1.18% 1.18%
Income taxes payable 0.70% 0.66% 0.74% 0.76% 0.73% 0.72% 0.71% 0.71%
Accrued compensation & employee benefits 0.56% 0.66% 0.61% 0.59% 0.59% 0.59% 0.59% 0.59%
Deferred margin on component sales 0.74% 0.58% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
Other current liabilities 3.61% 4.65% 4.73% 4.75% 4.75% 4.75% 4.75% 4.75%
Accrued expenses 8.11% 10.09% 10.77% 10.77% 10.75% 10.74% 10.73% 10.73%
Commercial paper 0.00% 3.45% 3.64% 2.47% 1.69% 1.16% 0.80% 0.55%
Current Portion of long-term debt 0.00% 0.00% 1.07% 1.88% 2.22% 2.32% 2.37% 2.44%
Total current liabilities 21.19% 30.06% 30.67% 30.52% 30.06% 29.61% 29.30% 29.12%
Total Deferred Taxes (Assets - Liabilities) 7.63% 8.72% 7.92% 8.91% 8.97% 8.97% 8.82% 8.98%
Total Deferred Revenue 5.89% 6.30% 5.38% 6.07% 6.07% 6.07% 6.07% 6.07%
Long-term debt 9.92% 15.86% 22.88% 26.92% 27.94% 28.38% 29.04% 29.81%
Other liabilities 2.18% 2.50% 4.01% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70%
Total Other non-current liabilities 17.99% 24.66% 32.26% 35.69% 36.71% 37.15% 37.81% 38.59%
Total Liabilities 46.81% 63.44% 70.85% 75.12% 75.73% 75.73% 75.93% 76.69%
Stockholders' Equity:
Common stock and Additional Paid in Capital 11.56% 12.75% 11.73% 11.18% 10.71% 10.30% 9.98% 9.72%
Retained earnings 61.00% 47.68% 39.49% 39.85% 42.49% 45.43% 48.64% 52.36%
Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) -0.28% 0.59% -0.15% -0.14% -0.13% -0.13% -0.13% -0.12%
Total shareholders' equity 72.29% 61.02% 51.07% 50.89% 53.07% 55.61% 58.49% 61.96%
Total Liabilites and Stockholders' Equity 119.10% 124.47% 121.91% 126.01% 128.80% 131.34% 134.42% 138.65%
Apple
Value Driver Estimation
Fiscal Years Ending 09/30/2015 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Marginal Tax Rate
Federal statutory tax rate 35.00% 35.00% 35.00% 35.00% 35.00% 35.00% 35.00% 35.00%
State income taxes, net of federal benefit 1.01% 0.88% 0.94% 0.94% 0.94% 0.94% 0.94% 0.94%
Foreign rate differential -9.20% -8.87% -8.92% -8.92% -8.92% -8.92% -8.92% -8.92%
Marginal Tax Rate 26.81% 27.01% 27.02% 27.02% 27.02% 27.02% 27.02% 27.02%
EBITA:
Net sales 170,910 182,795 233,715 245,214 256,147 266,243 274,986 282,223
- Cost of sales -99,849 -104,312 -128,832 -138,212 -145,709 -152,138 -158,214 -161,411
- Depreciation & Amortization -6,757 -7,946 -11,257 -11,369 -11,822 -12,933 -13,652 -14,978
- Research & development expense -4,475 -6,041 -8,067 -9,563 -10,758 -11,182 -11,549 -11,853
- Selling, general & administrative expense -10,830 -11,993 -14,329 -15,203 -15,881 -16,507 -17,049 -17,498
+ Implied Interest on Operating Leases 138 148 157 196 209 227 244 265
EBITA 49,137 52,651 71,387 71,063 72,186 73,710 74,766 76,747
NOPLAT
NOPLAT: EBITA - Adjusted Taxes + Change in DT 37,433 41,250 53,953 55,199 53,801 54,709 54,942 57,105
Lower of "Normal" Cash or Actual Cash 14,259 13,844 21,120 23,010 25,615 26,624 27,499 28,222
Accounts receivable, net 20,641 27,219 30,343 31,708 33,122 34,427 35,558 36,493
Inventories 1,764 2,111 2,349 3,310 3,458 3,594 3,712 3,810
Vendor non-trade receivables 7,539 9,759 13,494 13,409 14,007 14,559 15,037 15,432
Other current assets 6,882 9,806 9,539 12,996 13,576 14,111 14,574 14,958
Operating Current Assets 51,085 62,739 76,845 84,433 89,777 93,315 96,380 98,916
Net PPE:
Property & equipment, net 16,597 20,624 22,471 23,893 25,943 27,960 30,297 32,292
PV of Operating Leases:
PV of Operating Leases 4,002 4,245 5,290 5,625 6,108 6,582 7,133 7,602
Invested Capital:
Invested Capital 36,763 39,534 40,464 46,727 51,010 53,699 56,752 59,312
Value Drivers:
NOPLAT 37,433 41,250 53,953 55,199 53,801 54,709 54,942 57,105
/ Beginning IC 34,683 36,763 39,534 40,464 46,727 51,010 53,699 56,752
ROIC: 107.93% 112.20% 136.47% 136.41% 115.14% 107.25% 102.31% 100.62%
Cost of Equity
Re = Rf + B * (E[Rm] - Rf)
Rf 2.820%
E[Rm] - Rf 4.85%
Beta 1.316
Re 9.20%
Apple Bond Matures on 5/3/2023 3.02%
- (10-yr Bond (yahoo finance)) 2.13%
Cost of debt + (30-year Treasury Yield (Yahoo Finance)) 2.82%
Rd 3.71% --------------> = Cost of Debt 3.71%
WACC 8.61%
Apple
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Economic Profit (EP) Valuation Models
Key Inputs:
CV Growth 1.50%
CV ROIC 100.62%
WACC 8.61%
Cost of Equity 9.20%
DCF Model
Period 1 2 3 4 5
FCF 48,937 49,518 52,019 51,889 54,545
Continuing Value 790,707
PV 45,056 41,975 40,598 37,284 568,155
V(operating) 733,068
Non-operating Assets:
Excess Cash 0
Short-term marketable securities 20,481
Long-term marketable securities 164,065
V(non-operating) 184,546
Non-operating Liabilities:
Employee Stock Options 120
PV of Operating Leases 5,290
V(other) 5,411
Debt:
Commercial paper 8,499
Current Portion of LT Debt 2,500
Long-term debt 53,463
V(debt) 64,462
V(e) 847,741
Shares Outstanding 5,578
Intrinsic Value of Stock (FY End '14) 151.98
EP Model
Period 1 2 3 4 5
Economic Profit 51,714 49,776 50,314 50,316 52,216
Continuing Value 733,955
PV 47,612 42,193 39,267 36,154 527,376
NPV 692,603
Beginning Invested Capital (end 2015) 40,464
V(operating) 733,068
Non-operating Assets:
Excess Cash 0
Short-term marketable securities 20,481
Long-term marketable securities 164,065
V(non-operating) 184,546
Non-operating Liabilities:
Employee Stock Options 120
PV of Operating Leases 5,290
V(other) 5,411
Debt:
Commercial paper 8,499
Current Portion of LT Debt 2,500
Long-term debt 53,463
V(debt) 64,462
V(e) 847,741
Shares Outstanding 5,578
Intrinsic Value of Stock (FY End '14) 151.98
Key Assumptions
CV growth 3.00%
CV ROE 33.99%
Cost of Equity 9.20%
Period 1 2 3 4 5
Discounted Cash Flows 1.95 1.91 1.86 1.80 140.69
Implied Value:
Relative P/E (EPS15) $ 147.91
Relative P/E (EPS16) $ 139.31
Brand Leaders
EPS EPS
Ticker Company Price 2015E 2016E P/E 15 P/E 16
KO Coca Cola $41.96 $1.99 $2.07 21.1 20.3
MCD McDonalds $113.31 $4.87 $5.32 23.3 21.3
WMT Wal-Mart Stores Inc. $58.78 $4.51 $4.15 13.0 14.2
F Ford Motor Company $14.52 $1.63 $1.91 8.9 7.6
JNJ Johnson & Johnson $101.92 $6.18 $6.41 16.5 15.9
GE General Electric $29.92 $1.31 $1.52 22.8 19.7
NKE Nike $131.78 $4.30 $4.92 30.6 26.8
Average 19.5 18.0
Implied Value:
Relative P/E (EPS15) $ 180.68
Relative P/E (EPS16) $ 174.19
Apple
Key Management Ratios
Fiscal Years Ending 09/30/2015 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Liquidity Ratios
Current Assets 69,833 64,213 83,832 92,083 104,716 117,049 129,564 144,103
/ Current Liabilities 36,223 54,957 71,670 74,849 76,998 78,844 80,558 82,191
= Current Ratio 1.928 1.168 1.170 1.230 1.360 1.485 1.608 1.753
(Current Assets 69,833 64,213 83,832 92,083 104,716 117,049 129,564 144,103
- Inventory ) 1,764 2,111 2,349 3,310 3,458 3,594 3,712 3,810
/ Current Liabilities 36,223 54,957 71,670 74,849 76,998 78,844 80,558 82,191
= Quick Ratio 1.879 1.130 1.137 1.186 1.315 1.439 1.562 1.707
Cost of Goods Sold 99,849 104,312 128,832 138,212 145,709 152,138 158,214 161,411
/ Average Inventory 1,278 1,938 2,230 2,830 3,384 3,526 3,653 3,761
Inventory Turnover 78.160 53.838 57.772 48.843 43.056 43.146 43.307 42.915
Total Debt 20,962 39,540 67,252 77,692 81,985 85,227 89,188 93,311
/ Total Equity 123,549 111,547 119,355 124,788 135,927 148,047 160,852 174,858
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 16.97% 35.45% 56.35% 62.26% 60.32% 57.57% 55.45% 53.36%
Profitability Ratios
(Sales - COGS) 71,061 78,483 104,883 107,003 110,438 114,105 116,772 120,811
/ Sales 170,910 182,795 233,715 245,214 256,147 266,243 274,986 282,223
Gross Profit Margin 41.58% 42.93% 44.88% 43.64% 43.12% 42.86% 42.46% 42.81%
Net Income 37037 39510 53394 52706 53488 54669 55526 57058
/ Sales 170910 182795 233715 245214 256147 266243 274986 282223
Net Profit Margin 21.67% 21.61% 22.85% 21.49% 20.88% 20.53% 20.19% 20.22%
Net Income 37,037 39,510 53,394 52,706 53,488 54,669 55,526 57,058
/ Average Total Assets 188,514 215,534 256,227 296,968 319,459 339,801 359,663 380,465
Return on Assets 19.65% 18.33% 20.84% 17.75% 16.74% 16.09% 15.44% 15.00%
Net Income 37,037 39,510 53,394 52,706 53,488 54,669 55,526 57,058
/ Average Shareholder Equity 120,880 117,548 115,451 122,072 130,358 141,987 154,449 167,855
Return on Equity 30.64% 33.61% 46.25% 43.18% 41.03% 38.50% 35.95% 33.99%
Dividends per Share 1.63 1.82 1.98 2.13 2.27 2.43 2.57 2.74
x Shares Outstanding 6,477 6,086 5,753 5,434 5,176 4,959 4,760 4,578
( Total Dividend 10,552 11,076 11,391 11,595 11,767 12,027 12,216 12,553
+ Stock Repurchases ) 22,860 45,000 35,253 35,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000
/ Net Income 37,037 39,510 53,394 52,706 53,488 54,669 55,526 57,058
Total Payout Ratio 90.21% 141.93% 87.36% 88.41% 78.09% 76.88% 76.03% 74.58%
Present Value of Operating Lease Obligations (2015) Present Value of Operating Lease Obligations (2014)
Operating Operating
Fiscal Years Ending 30-Sep Leases Fiscal Years Ending 30-Sep Leases
2015 772 2015 662
2016 774 2016 676
2017 744 2017 645
2018 715 2018 593
2019 674 2019 534
Thereafter 2592 Thereafter 1877
Total Minimum Payments 6271 Total Minimum Payments 4987
Less: Interest 981 Less: Interest 742
PV of Minimum Payments 5290 PV of Minimum Payments 4245
Present Value of Operating Lease Obligations (2013) Present Value of Operating Lease Obligations (2012)
Operating Operating
Fiscal Years Ending 30-Sep Leases Fiscal Years Ending 30-Sep Leases
2014 610 2013 516
2015 613 2014 556
2016 587 2015 542
2017 551 2016 513
2018 505 2017 486
Thereafter 1855 Thereafter 1801
Total Minimum Payments 4721 Total Minimum Payments 4414
Less: Interest 719 Less: Interest 686
PV of Minimum Payments 4002 PV of Minimum Payments 3728
Shares Outstanding (beginning of the year) 5,578 5,289 5,063 4,855 4,665
Plus: Shares Issued Through ESOP 0.3 0.3 0 0 0
Less: Shares Repurchased in Treasury 289 227 208 190 174
Shares Outstanding (end of the year) 5,289 5,063 4,855 4,665 4,491
VALUATION OF OPTIONS GRANTED IN ESOP