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HRVATSKI GEOGRAFSKI GLASNIK 78/1, 4571 (2016.

)
UDK 911.9:711 Pregledni lanak
Review

Primljeno / Received
09-12-2015 / 2015-12-09

Prihvaeno / Accepted
Petra Radeljak Kaufmann
05-03-2016 / 2016-03-05

Metoda scenarija u istraivanju i planiranju prostora

Scenario Method in Spatial Research and Planning

Radi analize oblika scenarija koji su znaajni za istraivanje With the goal of analysing the forms of scenarios relevant
i planiranje prostora te naina na koji se metoda scenarija upo- for spatial research and planning, and ways in which the sce-
trebljava u tom kontekstu na pojedinim prostornim razinama nario method is contextually used at different spatial levels, a
proveden je opsean pregled literature vezane uz tipologije i wide encompassing literature review was conducted in relation
primjere upotrebe metode scenarija. Prema prostornom i vre- to typologies and examples of scenario method usage. Given
menskom okviru, svrsi i postupku izrade scenarija te izraenim the spatial and temporal frame, the purpose and procedure of
scenarijima, poblie je analizirano jedanaest odabranih scena- scenario construction and resulting scenarios, eleven scenario
rijskih studija u europskim dravama te devet studija u drugim studies in European countries and nine studies in other coun-
svjetskim dravama, opisanih u akademskim radovima. Na te- tries, described in published academic papers, were selected for
melju analize tipologija scenarija izdvojeni su: a) eksplorativni, closer analysis. On the basis of analysis of scenario typologies,
deskriptivni, prognozirajui normativni, anticipativni, retro- underlying scenarios were recognised: a) explorative, descriptive,
gnozirajui scenariji, b) kvalitativni kvantitativni, c) struni forecasting normative, anticipatory, backcasting; b) qualitative
participativni, d) osnovni upravljaki scenariji i e) ostali quantitative; c) expert participatory; d) baseline policy; and
tipovi scenarija. Analiza odabranih primjera upotrebe metode e) other types of scenarios. The analysis of selected examples of
scenarija pokazala je posebno: prisutnost scenarija u razliitim scenario method usage showed especially: the presence of the
svjetskim dravama i na razliitim prostornim razinama, rele- scenario method in different countries on different spatial levels;
vantnost u vrednovanju varijanti moguega budueg razvoja te relevance in evaluating of alternatives of possible future devel-
postavljanju temelja strategija i specifinih mjera planiranja i opments and providing a firm ground for strategies and specific
upravljanja, povezanost metode s integralnim pristupom pro- planning and policy measures; connections of the method to the
stornom razvoju, ali i regionalno i lokalno specifinim temama integral approach to spatial development, but also to regionally
te ulogu scenarija kao poveznice istraivanja u okviru znanosti o and locally specific topics; the role of scenarios as links between
okoliu i prostornog planiranja. environmental science research and spatial planning.

Kljune rijei: metoda scenarija, tipovi scenarija, istraivanje Key words: scenario method, scenario types, spatial research,
prostora, prostorno planiranje spatial planning

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HRVATSKI
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78/1, 4571 (2016.)
Uvod Introduction
Uobiajeno je da se pojmovi planiranje, raz- The terms planning, thinking, forecasting, anal-
miljanje, prognoziranje, analiza i uenje pove- ysis, and learning are all often attached to the word
zuju sa scenarijima (Bradfield i dr., 2005), pojmom scenario (Bradfield et al., 2005), which in itself has
koji sam po sebi ima niz znaenja. Upotrebljava se u multiple meanings. It is used in different contexts,
razliitim kontekstima: od sadraja dramske radnje going from the contents of drama works and mov-
i iscrpnog opisa radnje filma s tehnikim indikacija- ie scripts, to trend analysis, forecasts, predictions,
ma do analize trenda, prognoza, predvianja, analize sensitivity analysis, analysis of different alternatives,
osjetljivosti, analize varijanti, konkretnih razvojnih concrete development projects, etc. Relevant litera-
projekata i dr. U literaturi je prisutan veliki broj ra- ture encompasses a great number of contradictory
zliitih i ponekad kontradiktornih definicija, znaaj- definitions, characteristics, principles, and method-
ki, principa i metodolokih gledita na scenarije. ological views of scenarios.
Mnogi su autori meutim promiljali i defi- Many authors, however, have contemplated and
nirali scenarije s motrita metode scenarija. Meu provided definitions in the context of the scenario meth-
prvima definirali su ih Kahn i Wiener (1967, 6), od. An early definition by Kahn and Wiener sees sce-
kao hipotetine sljedove dogaaja osmiljene sa narios as hypothetical sequences of events constructed
svrhom usmjerivanja pozornosti na uzrone proce- for the purpose of focusing attention on causal pro-
se i toke donoenja odluke. Schoemaker (1993) cesses and decision points (Kahn and Wiener, 1967,
scenarije definira kao koherentno oblikovane opise 6). Schoemaker (1993) defines scenarios as (p. 195)
fundamentalno razliitih budunosti. Scenarij je focused descriptions of fundamentally different futures
opis budueg stanja i tijeka dogaaja koji omogu- presented in coherent script-like or narrative fashion.
uje napredak od sadanjega prema buduem sta- A scenario is a description of a future situation and a
nju (Godet i Roubelat, 1996). Scenarij je openito course of events that allows moving forward from the
razumljiv opis mogueg stanja u budunosti teme- original situation to the future situation (Godet and
ljen na kompleksnoj mrei utjecajnih imbenika Roubelat, 1996). A scenario is a generally intelligible
(Gausemeier i dr., 1998). Scenarij je opis naina description of a possible future situation, based on a
na koji bi se budunost mogla odviti temeljen na complex network of influence factors (Gausemeier et
pretpostavkama ako-onda, a uglavnom podrazu- al., 1998). A scenario is a description of how the fu-
mijeva opis poetnog stanja te kljunih faktora i ture may unfold based on if-then assumptions, which
promjena koje vode prema odreenome buduem typically consists of a description of an initial situation
stanju (Alcamo i Henrichs, 2008,1 u: Rothman, and the key driving forces and changes that lead to a
2008). Prema Meuvladinu panelu o promjeni particular future state (Alcamo and Henrichs, 2008,1
klime, scenarij je koherentan, interno konzisten- in: Rothman, 2008). According to the Intergovernmen-
tan i uvjerljiv opis moguega budueg stanja svijeta tal Panel on Climate Change, a scenario is a coherent,
(IPCC, n. d.). internally consistent, and plausible description of a
possible future state of the world (IPCC, n. d.).
S motrita metode scenarija scenarij stoga
nije neformalna anticipacija trendova i doga- When speaking about the scenario method, therefore,
aja (Martelli, 2001) ni bilo koji skup hipoteza a scenario is not just any informal anticipation of future
(Godet i Roubelat, 1996). Scenarij nije analiza trends and events (Martelli, 2001), or set of hypotheses
osjetljivosti koja simulira utjecaj varijacija jed- (Godet and Roubelat, 1996). A scenario is not a sensi-
nog imbenika (npr. temperatura) na rezultat, ve tivity analysis, which tends to produce a large number
sadrava uvjerljive opise sistemskih faktora, koji of simulations resulting from gradual variations of one

1 Alcamo, J., Henrichs, T., 2008: Towards guidelines for environmental scenario analysis, u: Environmental Futures: The Practice of Environmental Scenario
Analysis (ed. Alcamo, J.), Elsevier, Amsterdam, 13-35.
1 Alcamo, J., Henrichs, T., 2008: Towards guidelines for environmental scenario analysis, in: Environmental Futures: The Practice of Environmental Scenario
Analysis (ed. Alcamo, J.), Elsevier, Amsterdam, 13-35.

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P. Radeljak
Kaufmann
mogu biti razliiti u svakom scenariju (Mahmo- single factor (e.g. temperature), while a small number
ud i dr., 2009). Scenarij nije varijantna budu- of scenarios contain plausible descriptions of system Metoda scenarija
u istraivanju i
nost, odnosno smo zavrno stanje, ve sredstvo factors that can potentially be vastly different in each
planiranju prostora
postizanja tog stanja (Shearer, 2005). Konano, scenario (Mahmoud et al., 2009). Scenarios are not al-
scenarij nije strategija, jer strategija ovisi o sta- ternative futures i.e. possible end-states a scenario is Scenario Method
vovima usvojenima s obzirom na mogue budu- a means to achieve that state (Shearer, 2005). Finally, a in Spatial Research
nosti (Godet i Roubelat, 1996). Scenariji mogu scenario is not a strategy, because strategies depend on and Planning

biti izraeni u razliitim oblicima kao narativni attitudes adopted in the face of possible futures (Godet
tekstovi, slike, tablice, grafikoni, karte itd. (Roth- and Roubelat, 1996). Scenarios come in various forms
man, 2008). as narrative texts, images, tables and charts of data,
maps, etc. (Rothman, 2008).
Primjena metode scenarija u razliitim oblici-
ma planiranja proirila se nakon Drugoga svjet- Application of the scenario in various forms of
skog rata, a njezin razvoj bio je vezan uz vojno planning increased after the Second World War,
planiranje, planiranje u javnoj upravi, poslovno and its development was connected to military
planiranje, predvianje tehnolokog razvoja, stu- planning, public policy planning, business planning,
dije okolia i odrivi razvoj, urbano i regionalno technology foresight, environmental studies and
planiranje te studije budunosti uope. Izrada sustainable development, urban and regional plan-
scenarija oznauje se kao osnovna metodologija ning, and future studies in general. In future studies2
(Slaughter, 2002), odnosno par excellence alat stu- scenarios are described as perhaps a keystone meth-
dija budunosti2 (Inayatullah, 2008). Kao sredita odology (Slaughter, 2002) and the tool par excellence
razvoja scenarijskih tehnika tijekom ezdesetih (Inayatullah, 2008). The USA and France became
godina 20. stoljea istaknuli su se SAD i Francu- distinctive in the 1960s as centres of development
ska (Bradfield i dr., 2005).3 of scenario techniques (Bradfield et al., 2005).3
Sa sve prisutnijom predodbom kompleksnosti The interest in scenario development and analy-
i neizvjesnosti razvoja svijeta koji nas okruuje, po- sis increased with the ever more present perception
sebno u kontekstu disciplina i djelatnosti koje poi- of complexity and uncertainty of the development
vaju na donoenju odluka (poput javnog upravljanja of the world that surrounds us, especially in relation
i prostornog planiranja), povealo se zanimanje za to disciplines and activities based on decision-mak-
razvijanje i analizu scenarija. Sardar (2010) govori o ing (such as public governance and spatial planning).
postnormalnim vremenima, koja trae naputanje Sardar (2010) writes about postnormal times, which
ideja kontrole i upravljanja te preispitivanje poj- demand abandoning the ideas of control and man-
mova napretka, modernizacije i uinkovitosti koji agement, and rethinking the notions of progress,
podupiru zapadnjako kapitalistiko drutvo. Ana- modernisation, and efficiency underpinning western,
liza scenarija pojavila se kao kljuna metodologija capitalist society. Scenario analysis has emerged as a
za istraivanje varijanti budueg razvoja, identifi- key methodology for exploring alternative future de-

2 Povezanost scenarija sa studijima budunosti, koji su se razvili tijekom druge polovine 20. stoljea, uz napredovanje njihove metodoloke osnove
(Krawczyk i Slaughter, 2010), uvjetovala je susretanje s raznolikom terminologijom u stranoj literaturi. U standardiziranju prevoenja terminologije
primijenjen je pristup Dumii i Kneevi (2007), koje navode da se postupci prosuivanja o budunosti u literaturi opisuju terminima prognoziranje
(forecasting) i predvianje (prediction, foresighting). Pritom se statistiari-prognostiari koriste terminom prognoza naslanjajui se na kvantitativne
pokazatelje postojeih dogaanja i pojava, dok su terminom predvianja obuhvaene razliite kvalitativne metode prognoziranja i predvianja zasno-
vane na prosuivanju.
2 The association of scenarios with futures studies, which developed over the second half of the 20th century with the continuing advancement of its meth-
odological base (Krawczyk and Slaughter, 2010), was the reason for encountering different terms in non-Croatian literature. To be able to standardise
translations of terminology, the approach of Dumii and Kneevi (2007) was used; according to them the terms forecasting and prediction/foresighting
are used in literature to describe exercising judgment on the future. Thereby statisticians-forecasters use the term prognoza on the basis of quantitative
indicators of existing events and phenomena, while the term predvianje encompasses different qualitative methods based on judgment.
3 Veliki utjecaj na razvoj metode imali su odreeni istaknuti pojedinci (H. Kahn, B. de Jouvenel, M. Godet i dr.) i organizacije (npr. RAND Corporation,
Institut Hudson, Stanfordski istraivaki institut, DATAR, Royal Dutch/Shell).
3 Certain individuals (H. Kahn, B. de Jouvenel, M. Godet, and others) and organisations (RAND Corporation, Hudson Institute, Stanford Research
Institute, DATAR, Royal Dutch/Shell etc.) were distinctive in the development of the method.

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78/1, 4571 (2016.)
akcije (Raskin, 2005). Uz to se neizostavno vee i actions (Raskin, 2005). This is inevitably connected
pojam odrivosti i odrivog razvoja, pri emu ana- to sustainability and sustainable development, where
liza scenarija, ukljuujui pristupe okrenute partici- scenario analysis, including participatory and prob-
pativnosti i rjeavanju problema, moe biti alat za lem-oriented approaches, can be a tool for addressing
istraivanje kljunih pitanja i metodolokih izazova core questions and methodological challenges (Swart
(Swart i dr., 2004). Planiranje ili pravo na budu- et al., 2004). Planning or the right to the future is
nost nije neodreeno i bezgranino pravo, ve do- not an undefined and unlimited right it gains its
biva svoju dimenziju kroz odrivi razvoj i odrivu meaning through sustainable development and a sus-
budunost (imunovi, 2005). Friedmann zagovara tainable future (imunovi, 2005). Friedmann argues
lokalno utemeljeno, dubinsko istraivanje stratekih for a locally based, in-depth exploration of the strate-
pitanja urbanog razvoja pod razliitim skupovima gic issues of urban development under different sets
pretpostavki ili scenarija kao nain procjene poten- of assumptions or scenarios as a way to assess poten-
cijalnih ishoda i njihovih uinaka na stanovnitvo, tial outcomes and their effects on local populations,
gospodarstvo i okoli. To je nain propitkivanja bu- the economy, and the environment. This is a way of
dunosti kako bi se donijele bolje odluke u sada- probing the future in order to make more informed
njosti (Friedmann i dr., 2004). decisions in the present (Friedmann et al., 2004).
Iz reenoga proizlazi potreba analize oblika sce- This has given rise to the need to analyse forms of
narija koji su relevantni za istraivanje i planira- scenarios relevant for spatial research and planning,
nje prostora te naina na koji se metoda scenarija and ways in which the scenario method is contextual-
upotrebljava u tom kontekstu na razliitim prostor- ly used at different spatial levels. It is the underlying
nim razinama. Stoga je proveden opsean pregled reason why a wide encompassing literature review was
literature vezane uz tipologije i primjere upotrebe conducted, in relation to typologies and examples of
metode scenarija u irem kontekstu istraivanja i scenario method usage in the wide context of spatial
planiranja prostora. S obzirom na prostorni i vre- research and planning. Given the spatial and tem-
menski okvir, svrhu i postupak izrade scenarija te poral frame, the purpose and procedure of scenario
izraene scenarije poblie je analizirano jedanaest construction and resulting scenarios, eleven scenario
odabranih scenarijskih studija u europskim dra- studies in European countries and nine studies in
vama te devet studija u drugim svjetskim drava- other countries, described in academic papers pub-
ma, opisanih u akademskim radovima objavljenima lished after 2002, were selected for closer analysis.
nakon 2002. Navedene studije odabrane su prema These studies were selected according to their focus
svojoj usmjerenosti na istraivanje/planiranje pro- on spatial research/planning, and the availability of a
stora te dostupnosti cjelovitog prikaza procesa izra- full description of the scenario development process.
de scenarija. Zakljuno se iznose osnovna obiljeja In conclusion, basic characteristics of scenario appli-
primjene scenarija u istraivanju i planiranju pro- cation in spatial research and planning are given in
stora, u smislu svrhe i postupka izrade, obuhvaene relation to the purpose and development procedure;
problematike prostornog razvoja te izdvojenih ti- encompassing issues of spatial development and pre-
pova scenarija. viously described scenario types.

Tipovi scenarija Scenario types


Razvoj metode scenarija u posljednjih pola sto- Development of the scenario method in the last
ljea karakteriziralo je irenje njene primjene u half-century has been characterised by its increas-
razliitim djelatnostima i podrujima istraivanja. ing application in different sectors and areas of re-
Svako od njih pridodalo je nova obiljeja metodi, search. Each of which has supplemented the meth-
s obzirom na svrhu i cilj izrade scenarija, upotri- od with new characteristics, regarding its purpose
jebljene specifine metode i tehnike te razraen and goal for scenario construction, specific methods

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Kaufmann
slijed metodolokih koraka. Potreba usustavljivanja and techniques used, and sequence of methodolog-
spoznaja pridonijela je istraivanjima koja su rezul- ical steps. A need to systematise different under- Metoda scenarija
u istraivanju i
tirala pregledima osnovnih tipova scenarija. Zbog standings resulted in a review of basic types of sce-
planiranju prostora
svoje vanosti za primjenu metode scenarija u istra- narios. Given their importance for the application
ivanju i planiranju prostora u tab. 1. dani su pri- of the scenario method in spatial research and plan- Scenario Method
mjeri integriranih tipologija. Na temelju njih moe ning, examples of integrated typologies are given in in Spatial Research
se izdvojiti nekoliko osnovnih naina kategorizacije Tab. 1. On that basis, several basic types of scenario and Planning

scenarija. categorisation can be recognised.


a) Eksplorativni, deskriptivni, prognozirajui a) Explorative, descriptive, forecasting
normativni, anticipativni, retrognozirajui scenariji normative, anticipatory, backcasting scenarios
Od 1996. do 2006. vidljivo je poveanje sloenosti In the 1996 2006 period an increase in the com-
tipova scenarija navedenih u tab. 1. No svim tipolo- plexity of scenario types shown in Tab. 1 can be seen.
gijama zajedniko je razdvajanje scenarija s obzirom However, the classification of scenarios, in relation to
na dva osnovna pitanja na koja odgovaraju: o razvoju two basic questions to which scenarios respond is com-
koji bi se mogao dogoditi te razvoju koji bi se tre- mon to all typologies: regarding the development that
bao dogoditi. Prva kategorija scenarija temelji se na could happen and the development that should happen.
analizi postojeeg stanja i trendova te ispitivanju mo- The first category of scenarios is based on an analysis
guih smjerova razvoja u budunosti. Scenariji druge of the current state of affairs and trends and explores
kategorije kreu od poeljnih ciljeva budueg razvoja, possible development paths into the future. Scenarios
gdje se vraanjem unatrag trae naini njihova po- of the second category start from the desirable goals
stizanja. Drugim rijeima, prema Rothmanu (2008), of future development, and working backwards find
scenariji mogu biti razvijeni na eksplorativni nain, ways to achieve them. In other words, according to
neuvjetovan zavrnom vizijom, ili retrognozirajui Rothman (2008), scenarios can be developed in an
(engl. backcasting)4 nain, pri emu je vana tenja za exploratory fashion, i.e. not constrained by a predeter-
postizanjem zavrne vizije. Kod izrade velikog dije- mined end-vision, or in a backcasting4 fashion, where
la scenarija kombiniraju se oba pristupa, iako se je- the desire to reach a predetermined end-vision is im-
dan odabire kao glavni. Osim toga oba tipa scenarija portant. Either scenario type can be trend-driven or
mogu biti uvjetovana postojeim trendovima ili kon- contrasted, depending on whether the most likely or
trastna, ovisno o tome razmatraju li se najvjerojatni- the most unlikely changes have been incorporated
je ili najnevjerojatnije promjene (Godet i Roubelat, (Godet and Roubelat, 1996; Godet, 2000a; Durance
1996; Godet, 2000a; Durance i Godet, 2010). and Godet, 2010).
No upravo oko znaenja pojmova eksplorativni, However, the terms explorative, descriptive and fore-
deskriptivni i prognozirajui vezanih uz prvu katego- casting relating to the first category of scenarios, and
riju scenarija, odnosno normativni, anticipativni ili normative, anticipatory or backcasting relating to the
retrognozirajui vezanih uz drugu kategoriju, u lite- second category are a matter of disagreement in liter-
raturi je prisutno neslaganje. Dio autora te pojmove ature. Some authors use those terms as synonyms, and
upotrebljava kao sinonime, a dio razdvaja njihovo some make a distinction depending on whether sce-
znaenje ovisno o tome bave li se scenariji vrijedno- narios deal with values and norms. According to Swart
stima i normama. Prema Swart i dr. (2004), primarno et al. (2004), primarily descriptive scenarios are those
deskriptivni scenariji oni su koji opisuju mogue ra- that describe possible developments starting from cur-
zvojne pravce kreui od sadanjih uvjeta i trendova, rent conditions and trends, and primarily normative

4 Jedan od smjerova u izradi scenarija usredotoio se na predoivanje poeljnih budunosti i naina njihova ostvarenja, posebno u podruju energetike.
Robinson ih je 1982. nazvao backcasting studiji (Swart i dr., 2004). Kao paralela s pojmom forecasting prognoziranje, pojam backcasting moe se
u ovom smislu prevesti kao retrognoziranje.
4 Another direction in scenario work focused on envisioning desirable futures and ways to achieve them, particularly in the energy field. In 1982 Robinson
called them backcasting studies (Swart et al., 2004). Parallel to the term forecasting prognoziranje in Croatian, the term backcasting could be
translated into Croatian as retrognoziranje.

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HRVATSKI
GEOGRAFSKI
GLASNIK Tab. 1. Usporedba tipova scenarija prema razliitim autorima
78/1, 4571 (2016.)
Autori/
Tipovi scenarija
osnovni kontekst tipologije
Eksplorativni kreu od prolih i sadanjih trendova i vode vjerojatnim budunostima
Godet i Roubelat, 1996; Godet,
Anticipativni ili normativni grade se na razliitim vizijama budunosti te mogu biti poeljni ili nepoeljni
2000a/
Mogui zamislivi scenariji
Planiranje/upravljanje poduzeima,
Ostvarivi mogui ako se uzmu u obzir ogranienja
javna uprava, prostorno planiranje
Poeljni ulaze u kategoriju moguih, ali nisu nuno ostvarivi
Prognozirajui istrauju posljedice odreenog slijeda pretpostavki
Retrognozirajui kreu od postavljenoga krajnjeg stanja i istrauju preduvjete koji bi mogli dovesti do njega
(ukljuujui niz strategija)
Deskriptivni navode redoslijed moguih dogaaja neovisno o (ne)poeljnosti
Rotmans i dr., 2000/
Normativni uzimaju u obzir vrijednosti i interese, esto se oslanjajui na specifine ciljeve koje treba postii
Integrirana podjela, s naglaskom na
Kvantitativni esto zasnovani na modelima, to ukljuuje upotrebu raunalnih modela (kao glavnih sredstava
odrivi razvoj
istraivanja posljedica skupova pretpostavki ili kao alata za provjeru konzistentnosti razvijenih scenarija)
Kvalitativni temelje se na naraciji i kvalitativnom opisu puteva prema budunosti
Participativni dionici igraju aktivnu ulogu u izradi scenarija
Struni razvija ih mala skupina strunjaka
Kvalitativni opisuju mogue budunosti u obliku rijei ili vizualnih simbola; mogu biti u obliku dijagrama,
fraza i skica, no najee su sastavljeni od narativnih tekstova
Kvantitativni pruaju numerike informacije u obliku tablica i grafova
Eksplorativni oni koji kreu od sadanjosti i istrauju trendove prema budunosti (poznati i kao deskrip-
Alcamo, 2001/ tivni scenariji)
Naglasak na meunarodnim procje- Anticipativni oni koji kreu od postavljenih vizija budunosti (optimistine, pesimistine ili neutralne) i
nama utjecaja na okoli vraajui se unatrag nastoje vizualizirati kako bi se ta budunost mogla ostvariti (poznati i kao preskriptivni
ili normativni)
Osnovni predstavljaju budue stanje u kojem upravljake mjere izravno vezane uz glavnu temu scenarija ne
postoje ili nemaju zamjetnog utjecaja
Upravljaki odraavaju budue uinke mjera upravljanja
Cilj projekta (istraivanje potpora odluivanju):
I. uloga vrijednosti i normi: deskriptivni (istrauju mogue budunosti) normativni (opisuju vjerojatne ili
poeljne budunosti)
II. polazite: prognozirajui (eksplorativni, kreu od sadanjosti) retrognozirajui (preskriptivni ili anticipa-
tivni, kreu od odreenoga budueg stanja)
III. predmet: temeljeni na drutvenim pitanjima, institucijama* ili odreenom prostoru
IV. vremenski obuhvat: dugoroni (25 godina i vie) kratkoroni (3 10 godina)
V. prostorna razina: svjetska/nadnacionalna nacionalna/lokalna
Oblikovanje procesa (intuitivni formalni):
VI. podaci: kvalitativni kvantitativni
Van Notten i dr., 2003/ VII. metoda prikupljanja podataka: participativni sekundarni
VIII. resursi (financijski, istraivaki, vremenski): ekstenzivni ogranieni
Integrirana tipologija IX. institucionalni uvjeti (u kojima se scenariji izrauju): otvoreni ograniavajui
Sadraj scenarija (kompleksan jednostavan):
X. priroda vremena: lanani (razvojni, opisuju razvojni put do krajnjeg stanja) trenutani (prije svega opi-
suju krajnje stanje)
XI. skupovi varijabli: heterogeni homogeni
XII. priroda dinamike: periferni (kontrastni, opisuju diskontinuirani put prema budunosti, malo vjerojatne
ili ekstremne dogaaje) trend-scenariji (linearne trajektorije, bez iznenaenja)
XIII. razina devijacije: alternativni (opisuju budunosti koje se znaajno razlikuju) konvencionalni (temelje
se na sadanjim trendovima i njihovoj ekstrapolaciji u budunost)
XIV. razina povezivanja: visoka (povezivanje varijabli i dinamike na prostornim i vremenskim razinama,
razliitih domena) niska (mala razina meupovezanosti)
Prediktivni to e se (vjerojatno) dogoditi u budunosti?
prognostiki (to e se dogoditi u najizglednijem sluaju)
to-ako (to e se dogoditi pod odreenim uvjetima promjena vanjskih ili unutranjih imbenika koji
su vrlo vani za budui razvoj)
Eksplorativni to se moe dogoditi? (mogue)
vanjski (usmjeruju se na faktore koji su izvan podruja utjecaja aktera kako bi se ispitale uinkovitost i
Brjeson i dr., 2006/ otpornost pojedinih planova i strategija na promjene vanjskih faktora)
Integrirana tipologija strateki (eli se opisati niz moguih posljedica odreenih stratekih odluka i mjera; usmjeruju se na
unutranje faktore, a razmatraju vanjske)
Normativni kako se odreeni cilj moe postii? (poeljno)
scenariji ouvanja (kako postii odreeni cilj promjenama trenutanog stanja prikladni su ako je mogue
postii ciljeve uz postojei sustav)
scenariji preobrazbe (kako postii cilj kada postojea struktura spreava potrebne promjene prikladni su
ako je potrebna preobrazba u strukturno drugaiji sustav kako bi se postigli ciljevi)

Izvor: radovi autora navedenih u lijevom stupcu


50
* Scenariji temeljeni na institucijama bave se podrujima interesa odreenih organizacija i sektora, a mogu se ue podijeliti na kontekstualne
(opisuju okruenje na koje institucija nema izravnog utjecaja) i transakcijske (opisuju mezookruenje institucije, interakcije varijabli i dinamiku
u odreenom polju) (Van Notten i dr., 2003).
P. Radeljak
Kaufmann
Tab. 1 Comparison of scenario types according to various authors
Metoda scenarija
Authors/ u istraivanju i
Types of scenarios planiranju prostora
Basic context of the typology
Exploratory starting from past and present trends and leading to a likely future;
Godet i Roubelat, 1996; Godet,
Anticipatory or normative built on the basis of different visions of the future; they may be either desired or feared. Scenario Method
2000a/
Possible those that can be imagined; in Spatial Research
Business planning/ management;
Realisable possible, taking account of constraints; and Planning
public sector; spatial planning
Desirable fall into the possible category, but are not all necessarily realisable.
Forecasting exploring future consequences of a sequence of assumptions;
Backcasting starting from an assumed final state, and exploring the preconditions that could lead to it
(including a palette of strategies).
Descriptive stating an ordered set of possible events irrespective of their (un)desirability;
Rotmans i dr., 2000/
Normative taking values and interests into account, often reasoning from specific, intended targets.
Integrated classification, with focus
Quantitative often model-based, involving the use of computer models (either as a central means to explore
on sustainable development
the future consequences of sets of assumptions, or as a tool to check the consistency of the developed scenarios);
Qualitative based on narratives and a qualitative description of pathways into the future.
Participatory stakeholders play an active role in scenario construction;
Expert developed by a small group of technical experts.
Qualitative describing possible futures in the form of words or visual symbols; coming in the shape of
diagrams, phrases, or outlines, but most commonly they are made up of narrative texts (storylines);
Quantitative providing numerical information in the form of tables and graphs.
Exploratory beginning in the present and exploring trends into the future (also known as descriptive
Alcamo, 2001/ scenarios);
Focus on international environmen- Anticipatory starting with prescribed visions of the future (optimistic, pessimistic, or neutral) and working
tal assessments backwards trying to visualise how this future could emerge (also known as prescriptive or normative
scenarios).
Baseline presenting a future state in which policies connected to the main theme of scenarios either do not
exist or do not have a discernible influence;
Policy depicting the future effects of certain policies.
Project goal (exploration decision support):
I. Inclusion of norms: descriptive (those that explore possible futures) normative (describe probable or
preferable futures);
II. Vantage point: forecasting (exploratory, starting from present) backcasting (prescriptive or anticipatory,
reason from a specific future situation);
III. Subject: issue-based, institution-based* or area-based;
IV. Time scale: long term (25 years or more) short term (3 10 years);
V. Spatial scale: global/supranational national/local.
Process design (intuitive formal):
VI. Data: qualitative quantitative;
Van Notten i dr., 2003/ VII. Method of data collection: participatory desk research;
VIII. Resources (financial, research, time invested): extensive limited;
Integrated typology IX. Institutional conditions (in which scenarios are constructed): open constrained.
Scenario content (complex simple):
X. Temporal nature: chain (developmental, describing the path of development to an end-state) snapshot
(primarily describing the end-state);
XI. Variables: heterogeneous homogenous;
XII. Dynamics: peripheral (contrast, describing a discontinuous path to the future, unlikely and extreme
events) trend (surprise-free, linear trajectories);
XIII. Level of deviation: alternative (describing futures that differ significantly from one another) conven-
tional (adherent to present trends and their extrapolation into the future);
XIV. Level of integration: high (integration of variables and dynamics across time and spatial scales, and
across different domains) low (low level of interconnections).
Predictive What will happen? (probable)
Forecasts (what will happen if the most likely development unfolds);
What-if (what will happen given the occurrence of certain events external events or internal decisions of
great importance for future development);
Explorative What can happen? (possible)
External (focusing on factors beyond the control of the actors in order to assess how robust certain policies
Brjeson i dr., 2006/ and strategies are to changes in external factors);
Integrated typology Strategic (describing a range of possible consequences of certain strategic decisions; focusing on internal
factors, and taking external ones into account);
Normative How can a specific target be reached? (preferable)
Preserving (how to reach the target via adjustments to the current situation appropriate if reaching the
target is possible within the prevailing structure of the system);
Transforming (how to reach the target when the prevailing structure blocks necessary changes appropri-
ate if a transformation into a structurally different system is necessary in order for the goal to be attained).

Source: papers of authors referred to in the left-hand column


51
* Institution-based scenarios address the spheres of interest of certain organisations and sectors; they can be sub-divided into contextual (de-
scribing the environment not directly influenced by the institution) and transactional (describing the institutions meso-environment, and the
interactions between variables and dynamics within a particular field) scenarios (Van Notten et al., 2003).
HRVATSKI
GEOGRAFSKI
GLASNIK a primarno normativni scenariji oni su koji trebaju scenarios are those constructed to lead to a future that
78/1, 4571 (2016.)
voditi prema budunosti kojoj su autori scenarija do- is afforded a specific subjective value by the scenario
dijelili specifinu subjektivnu vrijednost. I Shearer authors. Shearer (2005) also states that the scenar-
(2005) navodi da se u globalu istraivanja temelje- io-based studies are broadly divided into normative,
na na scenarijima dijele na normativne studije, koje which seek to identify preferable futures, and descrip-
nastoje identificirati poeljne budunosti, te deskrip- tive, which aim to identify possible futures without re-
tivne, koje nastoje identificirati mogue budunosti gard for preference. Normative and descriptive scenar-
bez obzira na poeljnost. I normativni i deskriptivni ios are both used as aids to decision-making, but they
scenariji upotrebljavaju se kao pomo u donoenju are used in different ways. In normative scenario stud-
odluka, no na razliite naine. Kod normativnih sce- ies, the scenarios themselves are plans for the future
narijskih studija scenariji su sami po sebi planovi za and the decision concerns which future to implement.
budunost, a odluka se odnosi na to koju budunost In descriptive scenario studies, the scenarios are differ-
primijeniti. U deskriptivnim scenarijskim studijama ent conditions in which decisions and their robust-
scenariji su razliiti uvjeti kroz koje se usporeuju ness are compared; the better the result of a certain
odluke/mjere i njihova otpornost; to je bolji rezul- decision across the set of scenarios, the more robust
tat odreene odluke kroz skup scenarija, ta je opcija that option is to future uncertainties (Shearer, 2005).
otpornija na neizvjesnosti budueg razvoja (Shearer,
An issue discussed in the literature is the relation-
2005).
ship between scenarios, which explore different futures,
Predmet rasprave u literaturi jest i odnos scena- and forecasts, which deal with assessments of the most
rija, koji se bave razliitim mogunostima razvoja, i likely developments for relatively well-known and
prognoza, koje se bave procjenama najvjerojatnijeg well-defined systems (van Vuuren et al., 2012). There-
razvoja kod sustava koji su relativno dobro poznati by a question can be raised as to whether likelihoods
i jasno definirani (van Vuuren i dr., 2012). Pritom se and probabilities should be associated with scenarios,
postavlja pitanje trebaju li se koncepti vjerojatnosti as that could make them too similar to forecasts (Mah-
vezati uz scenarije, jer tako postaju preslini progno- moud et al., 2009).
zama (Mahmoud i dr., 2009).
If the concepts of probability and likelihood are in-
Ako se u osnovnu kategorizaciju ukljue i koncepti cluded in the basic categorisation, explorative, descrip-
vjerojatnosti, eksplorativni, deskriptivni odnosno pro- tive, i.e. forecasting scenarios can be further specified.
gnozirajui scenariji mogu se i ue specificirati. Nai- Namely, Brjeson et al. (2006) classify scenarios into
me Brjeson i dr. (2006) razlikuju tri glavne katego- three main categories (predictive, explorative, and nor-
rije scenarija (prediktivni, eksplorativni i normativni) mative) on the basis of the question that the scenario
na temelju osnovnog pitanja koje korisnik scenarija user poses about the future on probable, possible, and
postavlja o budunosti o vjerojatnome, moguem i preferable developments (tab. 1). In predictive scenari-
poeljnom razvoju (tab. 1). Kod prediktivnih scenari- os, results come in the form of forecasts with a sensitiv-
ja ishod je prognoza s rasponom osjetljivosti za jedan ity span for one outcome, or more outcomes differing
ishod ili ishodi koji se razlikuju s obzirom na jednu in relation to a bifurcation point, while explorative
toku bifurkacije, dok eksplorativni scenariji istrauju scenarios encompassing a wide scope of possible de-
mogunosti razvoja s razliitih gledita, dugoroniji velopments are elaborated with a long time-horizon,
su i obuhvaaju vee, strukturne promjene.5 and allow for more profound, structural changes.5

5 Swart i dr. (2004) navode da, s metodolokoga gledita, autori scenarija mogu pokuati razluiti vjerojatne ishode niza oekivanih trendova, ocrtati implik-
acije pretpostavki koje nisu odabrane na temelju vjerojatnosti (to-ako analiza) ili ispitati ostvarivost i implikacije poeljnih budunosti/rizike nepoeljnih
(retrognoza backcasting). Berkhout i dr. (2002) u literaturi nalaze tri kategorije scenarijskih pristupa: ekstrapolativni/prognozirajui, normativni/retrog-
nozirajui te eksplorativni, pri emu se ekstrapolativni oslanja na prole trendove i nastavlja ih u budunost. esto se primjenjuju u modeliranju, no glavni
je nedostatak da nisu dobra osnova za objanjavanje kvalitativnih promjena, novosti i iznenaenja.
5 Swart et al. (2004) state that, from a methodological point of view, scenario authors can attempt to differentiate the likely outcomes of a range of expected
trends, outline the implications of assumptions not chosen on the basis of likelihood (what-if analysis), or examine the feasibility and implications of
desirable futures/risks and of undesirable ones (backcasting). Berkhout et al. (2002) find three categories of scenario exercises distinguished in the litera-
ture: extrapolatory/forecasting, normative/backcasting, and exploratory, where the extrapolatory take past trends and iterate them into the future. They are
often used in modelling, but their chief disadvantage is that they do not serve as a good basis for explaining qualitative changes, or novelty and surprise.

52
P. Radeljak
Kaufmann
b) Kvalitativni kvantitativni scenariji b) Qualitative quantitative scenarios
Metoda scenarija
Uz opisanu podjelu na scenarije koji se temelje Alongside the previously described classification u istraivanju i
na moguem i poeljnom razvoju uestala je po- of scenarios based on possible and desirable devel- planiranju prostora
djela na kvalitativne i kvantitativne scenarije. Kva- opments, classification into qualitative and quanti-
litativni scenariji opisuju budui razvoj u obliku tative scenarios is also common. Qualitative scenar- Scenario Method
in Spatial Research
rijei, slika, dijagrama i fraza, a obino su sainjeni ios describe possible futures in the form of words, and Planning
od narativnih tekstova (Alcamo, 2001). Kvalita- pictures, diagrams, and phrases, but most commonly
tivni ili narativni scenariji prikladni su za analizu they are made up of narrative texts (Alcamo, 2001).
kompleksnih okolnosti s visokom razinom neiz- Qualitative or narrative scenarios are suited to the
vjesnosti te kad se relevantne informacije ne mogu analysis of complex situations with high levels of
u potpunosti kvantificirati primjerice one koje se uncertainty and when relevant information cannot
odnose na ljudske vrijednosti, emocije i ponaanja be entirely quantified such as information relating
(van Notten i dr., 2003). Kvantitativni scenariji pak to human values, emotions, and behaviour (van Not-
obino se zasnivaju na formaliziranim raunalnim ten et al., 2003). Quantitative scenarios are usually
modelima i pruaju numerike informacije u obli- based on formalised computer models and provide
ku tablica, grafova i karata (Alcamo, 2001). Kvan- numerical information in the form of tables, graphs,
titativno modeliranje esto se upotrebljava za pre- and maps (Alcamo, 2001). Quantitative modelling
diktivnu analizu, prikladnu za simuliranje dobro is often used for predictive analysis, appropriate for
poznatih sustava u dovoljno kratkom razdoblju simulating well-known systems over sufficiently
(Swart i dr., 2004). Raunalni modeli upotreblja- short times (Swart et al., 2004). Computer models
vaju se kao glavna sredstva istraivanja posljedica are used as a central means in exploring the future
skupova pretpostavki, ali i kao alati za provjeru consequences of sets of assumptions, and also as
konzistentnosti razvijenih scenarija (Rotmans i tools to check the consistency of the developed sce-
dr., 2000). narios (Rotmans et al., 2000).
Distinkcija kvalitativnih i kvantitativnih sce- The distinction between qualitative and quanti-
narija ponekad nije jasno prepoznatljiva kvalita- tative scenarios is often not clearly visible qualita-
tivni scenariji mogu biti izraeni formaliziranim, tive scenarios can be constructed using formalistic,
gotovo kvantitativnim metodama (npr. Godet, almost quantitative methods (e.g. Godet, 2000b),
2000b), dok se kvantitativni mogu razviti do- while quantitative scenarios can be developed by
bivanjem numerikih procjena od strunjaka ili soliciting numerical estimates from experts or by
upotrebom semikvantitativnih tehnika (Alcamo, using semi-quantitative techniques (Alcamo, 2008).
2008). Osim toga upravo kombinacija kvalitativ- In fact, a combination of qualitative and quantita-
nih i kvantitativnih scenarija moe biti najbolji na- tive scenarios can be the best way of achieving the
in postizanja ciljeva scenarijske analize (Alcamo, goals of a scenario analysis (Alcamo, 2008).6 In the
2008).6 U matematikom su pristupu pretpostavke mathematical approach, assumptions in models are
u modelima jasno izraene u obliku matematikih written down in the form of model equations un-
izraza u odnosu na neverbalizirane pretpostavke like the non-verbalised assumptions behind qual-
iza kvalitativnih scenarija (Alcamo, 2001). Kod itative scenarios (Alcamo, 2001). In the narrative
narativnog pristupa model je openito implicitan approach, the model is generally implicit in the

6 U tom smislu Kemp-Benedict (2004) vanom smatra interakciju kvalitativnih i kvantitativnih pristupa u izradi scenarija. Scenarijski modeli trebaju
odraavati kompleksnost i kompliciranost. Kompleksnost proizlazi iz meupovezanosti razliitih komponenata odreenoga sustava i treba se
odraavati u kvalitativnim scenarijskim tehnikama, odnosno narativnim tekstovima. Kompliciranost proizlazi iz velikog broja imbenika koje treba
imati na umu (akteri, resursi, drutveno-ekonomski odnosi koji mogu utjecati na scenarij i dr.) i najbolje se obuhvaa putem kvantitativnih, osobito
raunalnih modela.
6 In this sense, Kemp-Benedict (2004) argues for the interaction between the qualitative and quantitative contributions in scenario construction. Scenario
models should represent complexity and complicatedness. Complexity arises from the inter-relatedness of different components of a system, and
should be reflected in qualitative scenario techniques, i.e. narratives. Complicatedness arises from many factors, which must be kept in mind (actors,
resources, socio-economic relationships that can influence a scenario, etc.), and is best tackled with quantitative, especially computer models.

53
HRVATSKI
GEOGRAFSKI
GLASNIK u obliku narativnog teksta koji odraava zajedniki form of the narrative, which reflects the common
78/1, 4571 (2016.)
mentalni model svojih autora. Izazov je kombini- mental model of its authors. The challenge lies in
rati narativne tekstove s matematikom analizom combining narratives with mathematical analysis in
na nain koji se zasniva na snagama obaju pristupa a way that uses the strengths of both approaches
(Kemp-Benedict, 2004). (Kemp-Benedict, 2004).
c) Struni participativni scenariji c) Expert participatory scenarios
Osim podjele temeljene na polazitu scenarija, Apart from the categorisation of scenarios based on
obuhvaanju vrijednosti i interesa i zasnovano- the scenario,s starting point, whether or not they take
sti na kvantitativnim ili kvalitativnim podacima values and interests into account as well as founda-
Rotmans i dr. (2000) scenarije su podijelili i s ob- tion in quantitative or qualitative data, Rotmans et al.
zirom na ukljuenost dionika na participativne (2000) also classify scenarios on the basis of stakehold-
i strune scenarije (tab. 1). Prednost kvalitativnih er involvement into participatory and expert scenari-
scenarija jest mogunost istovremenog predstav- os (Tab. 1). The advantage of qualitative scenarios is the
ljanja gledita vie razliitih dionika i strunja- possibility of representing the views of several different
ka te razumljiv nain prenoenja informacija o stakeholders and experts at the same time, as well as
budunosti. Strunjaci su u pravilu pojedinci s communicating information about the future in an
ekspertizom relevantnom za izradu scenarija, a understandable way. Experts are generally individuals
dionici su pojedinci ili organizacije zainteresirani with the expertise needed to construct the scenarios,
za ishode scenarija (Alcamo, 2001). Tenja prema while stakeholders are individuals or organisations
upotrebi participativnih metoda za izradu scena- with a special interest in the outcome of scenarios (Al-
rija sve je izraenija jer raznolike skupine dioni- camo, 2001). There is an increasing tendency towards
ka s razliitim znanjem, strunou i gleditima the use of participatory methods for designing sce-
pruaju vee bogatstvo scenarijima (Rotmans i narios, given that diverse groups of stakeholders with
dr., 2000). Osim ukljuivanja znanja izvan grupe different knowledge, expertise and perspectives provide
izravno ukljuenih strunjaka, participacija moe a greater richness to scenarios (Rotmans et al., 2000).
pridonijeti i boljoj prilagoenosti scenarija potre- Besides using knowledge from outside of the group of
bama korisnika (van Vuuren i dr., 2012). directly involved experts, participation can ensure that
scenarios are better targeted to the user needs (van
d) Osnovni upravljaki scenariji
Vuuren et al., 2012).
Osnovni scenariji predstavljaju budue stanje
d) Baseline policy scenarios
u kojemu mjere izravno vezane uz glavnu temu
scenarija ne postoje ili nemaju zamjetnog utje- Baseline scenarios present the future state in which
caja, dok upravljaki scenariji upravo odraavaju policies connected to the main theme of scenarios ei-
budue uinke mjera upravljanja (Alcamo, 2001). ther do not exist or do not have a discernible influence,
Osnovni scenariji tako se tipino upotrebljavaju while policy scenarios focus on depicting the future
kao referentni scenariji za ispitivanje uinkovitosti effects of certain policies (Alcamo, 2001). Baseline sce-
razliitih upravljakih scenarija (van Vuuren i dr., narios are typically used as references for exploring the
2012). impact of policy intervention compared to the baseline
(van Vuuren et al., 2012).
Odreeni autori naglaavaju i vanost izrade
vie osnovnih scenarija, od kojih bi svaki poivao Some authors stress the importance of developing
na razliitim pretpostavkama o razvoju i odraavao multiple baseline scenarios, which would be based on
razliite trendove (Hourcade i Robinson, 1996; different assumptions about development patterns and
Alcamo, 2001). reflect different trends (Hourcade and Robinson, 1996;
Alcamo, 2001).
e) Ostali tipovi scenarija
e) Other types of scenarios
Meu ostalim tipovima valja istaknuti scena-
rije koji su vezani uz odreene teme i arhetipove, Among other types, scenarios connected with cer-

54
P. Radeljak
Kaufmann
odnosno specifine zavrne vizije. Tako scenariji tain topics and archetypes, namely specific end-visions,
mogu biti eksplicitno optimistini ili pesimisti- should be mentioned. Such scenarios can be explicitly Metoda scenarija
u istraivanju i
ni, te odraavati arhetipove poput kontinuiranog optimistic or pessimistic, and reflect archetypes such
planiranju prostora
rasta, kraha i stagnacije7 te usmjerenosti na li- as continued growth, collapse, and steady state,7 and
beralizaciju trita, ouvanje okolia i dr. (Inaya- can be focused on market liberalisation, environmen- Scenario Method
tullah, 2008; Rothman, 2008). Coates (2000) tal protection etc. (Inayatullah, 2008; Rothman, 2008). in Spatial Research
smatra da je neparni broj scenarija s najboljim, Coates (2000) finds deficient an odd number of scenar- and Planning

najgorim i najvjerojatnijim sluajem manjkav ios with a best case, a worst case, and a most likely case
zbog naginjanja prihvaanju srednjeg sluaja, ali with regard to the tendency to drive towards accepting
i podcjenjivanja vanosti razliitih varijanti bu- the central one but also because it underestimates the
dueg razvoja. importance of alternative future developments.

Metoda scenarija u istraivanju i planiranju Scenario method in spatial research and


prostora planning

Rairenost i obiljeja upotrebe metode Range and characteristics of the usage of the
scenarija scenario method
Izrada scenarija u kontekstu istraivanja i plani- Scenario development in the context of spatial
ranja prostora iroko je rasprostranjena i prisutna u research and planning is widely spread and present
razliitim europskim i drugim svjetskim dravama in many countries in Europe and around the world,
te na razliitim prostornim razinama. To je vidljivo and at different spatial levels. This is visible from the
iz prikaza svrhe, postupka i izraenih scenarija u purpose, process of construction, and constructed sce-
odabranim primjerima (tab. 2 i tab. 3). Svrha izra- narios from the selected examples (Tab. 2 and Tab. 3).
de scenarija vezana je uz sagledavanje postojeih The purpose of scenario development is connected to
trendova razvoja u prostoru, promiljanje moguih analysing current trends in spatial development, con-
i poeljnih smjerova budueg razvoja, postavljanje sidering possible and preferable future development
kvalitetne osnove za donoenje odluka u prostor- paths, setting a sound foundation for decision-making
nom planiranju te razradu strategija radi postizanja in spatial planning, and developing strategies in order
postavljenih planerskih ciljeva. Krawczyk i Ratcliffe to achieve set planning goals. Krawczyk and Ratcliffe
(2005) navode da studiji budunosti openito mogu (2005) state that future studies in general can provide a
pruiti nove, sustavne, matovite i inovativne pri- fresh, systematic, imaginative, and innovative approach
stupe promiljanju moguih, vjerojatnih i poeljnih for the examination of possible, probable and desirable
urbanih budunosti koji mogu pomoi planerima, urban futures, which can help planners, decision-mak-
donositeljima odluka i lokalnoj zajednici. Scenari- ers, and local communities. Scenarios stimulate imag-
ji potiu matu unutar racionalnog procesa analize ination within the rational process of analysis (Masini
(Masini i Vasquez, 2000). Vrijednost scenarija ne and Vasquez, 2000). The value of scenarios does not
poiva u njihovoj sposobnosti predvianja budu- lie in their capacity to predict the future, but in their
nosti, ve u sposobnosti pruanja uvida u sadanjost, ability to provide insights into the present, identify-
prepoznavanju vie i manje izraenih promjena po- ing stronger and weaker signals of change potentially

7 Inayatullah (2008) meu modelima izrade scenarija izdvaja onaj Jamesa Datora s oblikovanjem scenarijskih arhetipova kontinuirani rast, krah, stag-
nacija i preobrazba; ali i model Petera Schwartza iz Global Business Networka s najboljim i najloijim sluajem, iznenaujuom budunou i nastavkom
trendova.
7 Among the models of scenario construction, Inayatullah (2008) shows James Dators method of articulating scenario archetypes continued growth,
collapse, steady state, and transformation; and also the model of Peter Schwartz from Global Business Network with best case, worst case, outlier, and
business as usual scenarios.

55
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GLASNIK tencijalno vanih za budui razvoj i razmatranju important for future developments, and unfolding the
78/1, 4571 (2016.)
implikacija tih promjena (Rotmans i dr., 2000).8 implications of those changes (Rotmans et al., 2000).8
Osobito kvalitativni scenariji mogu ukljuiti neli- Qualitative scenarios in particular can more readily
nearnosti, povratne veze i iznenaenja, lake nego include non-linearities, feedbacks, and surprises than
kvantitativni scenariji ili modeli (Kok i dr., 2006a). quantitative scenarios or models (Kok et al., 2006a). In
Povezano s tim, Rotmans i dr. (2000) istaknuli su relation to this, Rotmans et al. (2000) listed a number
nedostatke mnogih postojeih scenarija: nekonzi- of deficiencies of many of the currently existing scenar-
stentnost postavki za razliite sektore, regije i pita- ios: inconsistent sets of assumptions made for different
nja, netransparentnost kljunih postavki, implicit- sectors, regions, or issues; lack of transparency in key
nih sudova i preferencija, nedovoljnu raznovrsnost assumptions, underlying implicit judgements and pref-
i manjak matovitosti. erences, and a lack of diversity and imagination.
Izrada scenarija povezana je s integralnim Scenario construction is connected to the integral
pristupom prostornom razvoju, ukljuujui ur- approach to spatial development, including urban and
bani i ruralni razvoj, ali i s regionalno i lokal- rural development, but also to regionally and locally
no specifinim temama u prostornom ureenju, specific topics in spatial planning, such as the influ-
poput primjerice utjecaja izraenoga turistikog ence of more prominent tourist development, the sig-
razvoja, vanosti brdsko-planinske poljoprivrede nificance of agriculture in mountainous areas, or land
ili degradacije zemljita. Tako su scenariji izra- degradation. Scenarios developed for the Portuguese
eni za portugalsku regiju Algarve povezani s Algarve region were connected to tourist develop-
turistikim razvojem, urbanizacijom, razvojem ment, urbanisation, infrastructural development, and
infrastrukture te kapacitetom nosivosti obalnih the carrying capacity of coastal areas (Petrov et al.,
podruja (Petrov i dr., 2009; de Noronha Vaz i 2009; de Noronha Vaz et al., 2012). At the national
dr., 2012). Na nacionalnoj razini Lowe i Ward level, Lowe and Ward (2009) identified the dominant
(2009) prepoznali su sa socijalnogeografskog trends of development in rural areas of England and
motrita prevladavajue trendove razvoja u rural- Wales from a socio-geographical perspective, and pro-
nim podrujima Engleske i Walesa pa ih projici- jected them forward through modelling; the developed
rali u budunost putem modeliranja; razvijanjem scenarios were to encourage a debate on rural futures.
scenarija eljelo se potaknuti raspravu o ruralnim In the frame of ROK (n. d.) scenarios of spatial de-
budunostima. U projektu ROK-a (n. d.) pak velopment of Austria were constructed. According
izraeni su scenariji prostornog razvoja Austri- to Bartholomew (2007), many metropolitan areas in
je. Prema Bartholomew (2007), mnoga metro- the United States have engaged in a form of visioning
politanska podruja u SAD-u u posljednja dva in the last two decades to describe a future for their
desetljea primjenjuju tehnike opisivanja bu- communities; often as a form of scenario planning to
dunosti svojih zajednica; esto jedan od oblika evaluate quantitatively several alternative development
scenarijskog planiranja za kvantitativno vredno- patterns and analyse their impacts along different in-
vanje nekoliko inaica razvoja, i analizu njihovih dices (ranging from the affordability of housing to
uinaka na razliite indikatore (od cijene stano- water quality). Using the example of Yalova in Turkey,
vanja do kvalitete vode). zkaynak (2008) poka- zkaynak (2008) showed how scenario building and
zala je na primjeru grada Yalova u Turskoj kako analysis can contribute to small and medium-sized city
izrada i analiza scenarija mogu pomoi urbanom planning and governance. Scenarios provide support
planiranju i upravljanju manjim do srednje veli- in decision-making and in evaluating possible urban
kim gradovima. Scenariji su potpora donoenju development paths from the economic, social, and en-

8 Prema Hasanu Ozbekhanu, drutvo moe odabrati jedan od etiri stava kada se suoava s budunou: 1) pasivni akter, koji prihvaa promjene bez pre-
ispitivanja, 2) reaktivni akter, koji reagira kad se alarm ve oglasi, 3) preaktivni akter, koji se na vrijeme priprema za nadolazee promjene i 4) proaktivni
akter, koji djeluje prema ostvarenju eljenih promjena (Godet i Durance, 2011).
8 According to Hasan Ozbekhan, humanity can choose among four attitudes when faced with the future: 1) the passive actor, who accepts change without
challenging it; 2) the reactive actor, who waits for the alarm to sound to react; 3) the pre-active actor, who prepares for foreseeable changes; and 4) the
proactive actor, who acts to provoke desirable change (Godet and Durance, 2011).

56
P. Radeljak
Kaufmann
odluka i vrednovanju moguih smjerova razvoja vironmental perspectives, in relation to values and ex-
grada s ekonomskoga, drutvenoga i okolinoga pectations of multiple stakeholders. Metoda scenarija
u istraivanju i
gledita te u odnosu na vrijednosti i oekivanja
Other examples also point to the importance of planiranju prostora
mnogostrukih dionika.
an integral approach, especially in the strategic plan-
Na vanost integralnog pristupa, osobito u ning of spatial development: Godet and Durance Scenario Method
in Spatial Research
stratekom planiranju prostornog razvoja, upu- (2011) mention the Basque country study, performed and Planning
uje i niz drugih primjera: Godet i Durance with the support of DATAR and the participation of
(2011) navode primjer studije u Baskiji, izraene key stakeholders in the Basque region, which led to
uz potporu DATAR-a i participaciju kljunih a territorial development schema; Fernndez Gell
dionika u regiji, koja je vodila konceptu pro- (2010) gives the example of developing a trend
stornog razvoja regije; Fernndez Gell (2010) scenario for the Madrid region in 2025 in order to
iznosi primjer izrade trend-scenarija za Madrid- evaluate the sustainability of the present develop-
sku regiju do 2025., kako bi se vrednovala odr- ment model; Van Berkel et al. (2011) use qualitative
ivost postojeeg modela razvoja; Van Berkel i scenarios in evaluating the assets and constraints of
dr. (2011) upotrebljavaju kvalitativne scenarije u different forms of rural development (with the ex-
vrednovanju mogunosti i ogranienja razliitih ample of the parish of Castro Laboreiro in northern
oblika ruralnog razvoja (primjer upe Castro La- Portugal). In a study under the title of Foundation
boreiro u sjevernom Portugalu). U studiji Osno- of the economic development of the City of Split
ve gospodarskog razvitka Grada Splita (2003) (2003), SWOT analysis was a baseline for defining
SWOT analiza bila je temelj za definiranje vizije the vision of future development and the choice of
budueg razvoja i odabir temeljnih stratekih pi- fundamental strategic issues.9
tanja.9
Factors that are analysed and the ways in which
O prostornoj razini i obiljejima prostora te they are considered depend on the spatial level, the
pitanjima/temama kojima se scenariji bave ovisi characteristics of the area in question, and the issues/
koji se faktori i na koji nain razmatraju. Roth- topics the scenarios deal with. Rothman (2008) and
man (2008) i zkaynak (2008) navode glavne zkaynak (2008) list the most common driving forc-
utjecajne faktore koji se izdvajaju i analiziraju es selected and analysed in scenario studies (demo-
u veini scenarijskih studija (demografski, eko- graphic, economic, social, scientific and technologi-
nomski, drutveni, znanstveni i tehnoloki, in- cal, institutional, cultural, environmental). Scenarios
stitucionalni, kulturni i okolini). Scenariji omo- enable the relation of isolated pieces of information
guuju povezivanje izoliranih informacija unutar within a single framework, and also a structured ap-
zajednikog okvira, ali i strukturirani pristup pu- proach by which individual factors can be considered
tem kojega se pojedinani faktori mogu razmo- across different frameworks (Shearer, 2005).
triti u razliitim okvirima (Shearer, 2005).
Scenarios are thematic and methodological links
Scenariji su tematska i metodoloka pove- between research undertaken in the frame of en-
znica istraivanja u okviru znanosti o okoliu i vironmental science and spatial planning. These
prostornog planiranja. To se posebno odnosi na especially concern considerations on sustainable
promiljanje odrivog razvoja, procjene utjecaja development, environmental assessments, environ-
na okoli, zatitu okolia i istraivanje promjena mental protection and the research of land-use and
zemljinog pokrova i naina koritenja zemljita. land-cover change. In the context of sustainable de-

9 Ui istraivaki tim Ekonomskog fakulteta u Splitu definirao je scenarij poeljne budunosti gospodarskog razvoja Splita, a zatim u suradnji sa irom
radnom skupinom predloio razvojne programe i projekte od posebne vanosti. Ukljuen je bio niz strunjaka te predstavnika javnih i privatnih insti-
tucija. Posebno uska suradnja ostvarena je s nositeljima izrade prostornoplanske dokumentacije.
9 The research team from the Faculty of Economics in Split defined the scenario of a preferable future of the economic development of Split. Following
this, and in co-operation with a wider working group, the team proposed development programmes and projects of special significance. A number
of experts and representatives of public and private institutions were included. The co-operation was especially close with those responsible for the
development of spatial planning documents.

57
HRVATSKI
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GLASNIK Tab. 2. Pregled odabranih primjera scenarija u europskim dravama
78/1, 4571 (2016.)

Svrha izrade scenarija


Izvor/
prostor/ Postupak izrade scenarija
vremenski okvir
Izraeni scenariji

Testiranje strategije participacije dionika u planiranju u ruralnim podrujima.

Tress i Tress, 2003/ Kroz prevagu pojedinih naina koritenja zemljita odreeni su i kartografski/slikovno predoeni ekstremni scenariji.
Kravlund (Danska)/ 2020. Predstavljeni su dionicima kako bi se kroz raspravu i putem upitnika prepoznali njihovi interesi.
Ekstremni scenariji pokazali su prevagu sljedeih naina koritenja zemljita: intenzivirana industrijalizacija poljopri-
vrede, rekreacija i turizam, zatita prirode i poveanje stambenog fonda.

Vrednovanje utjecaja socio-ekonomskih i demografskih scenarija na prirodu i pejza.

Scenariji se naslanjaju na SRES scenarije Meuvladina panela o promjeni klime izraene na svjetskoj razini. Elementi
de Nijs i dr., 2004/ tematskih analiza sintetizirani su u integrirane prostorne scenarije. Za izradu detaljnih karata naina koritenja zemlji-
Nizozemska/ 2030. ta na temelju scenarija i dodatnih pokazatelja promjene naina koritenja zemljita primijenjen je model staninih
automata Environment Explorer.
Integrirani scenariji jesu Individualni svijet", Individualna regija, Kooperativni svijet i Kooperativna regija, s ra-
zlikama u pristupu poljoprivrednom tritu i zoniranju te nainu koritenja zemljita.
Istraivanje promjene naina koritenja i degradacije zemljita s naglaskom na participativni razvoj scenarija u sklopu
projekta MedAction.
Kok i dr., 2006b/ U razvijanju lokalnih scenarija kao okvir sluili su prije izraeni scenariji za europsku i mediteransku razinu. Na radi-
Guadalentn (panjolska) onicama s dionicima primijenjena je eksplorativna metodologija i potom retrognoziranje, uz identificiranje moguih
i Val dAgri (Italija)/ 2030. mjera upravljanja.

Izraeno je vie kvalitativnih scenarija.

Istraivanje moguih ekonomskih i promjena naina koritenja zemljita kao rezultat manjih subvencija za brdsko-pla-
ninsku poljoprivredu i liberalizacije trita; razmatranje metodolokih implikacija kombinacije participativnog pristupa
i integriranoga numerikog modeliranja.
Pomou radionica s lokalnim akterima razvijene su matrice utjecaja, sistemski grafovi i tablice s opisom razvoja eleme-
nata vanih za razvoj regije te ocrtani koherentni kvalitativni scenariji. Kvalitativna razrada scenarija bila je osnova za
Walz i dr., 2007/ razradu ulaznih parametara za numeriku simulaciju. Parametri su kvantificirani uz pomo iscrpnog pregleda literature.
Davos (vicarska)/ 2050. Te vrijednosti upotrijebljene su u integriranome modelu ALPSCAPE za simuliranje scenarija i doradu narativnih
opisa.
Znatnim smanjenjem subvencija za brdsko-planinsku poljoprivredu porast e cijene poljoprivrednih proizvoda. Scena-
rij A pretpostavlja porast potranje za lokalnim proizvodima unato porastu cijena proizvoda, dok Scenarij B pretpo-
stavlja snano smanjivanje potranje. Model koritenja zemljita ukazao je na veliki utjecaj obaju scenarija na pejza, s
vie od 1700 ha zaputenog zemljita tijekom pedeset godina.
Analiza utjecaja turizma na promjene naina koritenja zemljita u ovisnosti o mjerama za razvoj turizma te ispitivanje
implikacija za prostorno planiranje.
Nakon kontekstualnog razmatranja razvoja regije i procesa planiranja te analize razliitih pokazatelja izraena je ma-
trica kvalitativnih scenarija temeljenih na stanovnitvu, gospodarstvu i odnosu prema planiranju. Kljune postavke
Petrov i dr., 2009/ o stanju, trendovima razvoja i razliitim aktivnostima u kvalitativnim opisima predstavljene su s jednim ili vie pa-
Algarve (Portugal)/ 2020. rametara u modelu MOLAND za simulaciju urbanih i regionalnih scenarija, radi vrednovanja mjera i programa s
teritorijalnim uinkom.
Scenariji Trend scenarij, Raspreni razvoj i Kompaktni razvoj temeljeni su na dvama glavnim faktorima budueg
naina koritenja zemljita na NUTS 3 razini: a) priljevu stanovnitva i b) ekonomskom razvoju. Poveanje povrine
izgraenog zemljita izraunato je u ovisnosti o promjenama broja stanovnika, BDP-a i rasta u proizvodnom i uslu-
nom sektoru (upotrijebljen je i makroekonomski model).

Projekt ROK-a trajao je od 2007. do 2009. s ciljem izrade scenarija prostornog razvoja.

Projektni tim (vanjski strunjaci) i radna skupina ROK-a (predstavnici dravne uprave) definirali su prostorno rele-
vantne teme za izradu tematskih/sektorskih scenarija. Uglavnom kvalitativni tematski scenariji definirani su na temelju
trendova i moguih naina razvoja glavnih faktora utjecaja te doraeni kroz diskusije na radionicama sa strunjacima.
Williams i dr., 2009/ Scenarijski tim izradio je etiri integrirana prostorna scenarija, raspravljena na dodatnoj radionici i potom predstavljena
Austrija/ 2030. (uz raspravu o preporukama/posljedicama) na konferenciji za donositelje odluka u prostornom planiranju i regio-
nalnom razvoju. Definirani su i indikatori za praenje promjena glavnih faktora utjecaja kako bi se bolje anticipirali
dugoroni trendovi razvoja.
Integrirani prostorni scenariji jesu ekstremni scenariji s ciljem razvijanja uinkovitih mjera koje se mogu nositi s pro-
mjenama postojeih razvojnih trendova: Sveukupni rast, Sveukupna kompeticija, Sveukupna sigurnost i Sveu-
kupni rizik.

58
P. Radeljak
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Metoda scenarija
Svrha izrade scenarija u istraivanju i
Izvor/ planiranju prostora
prostor/ Postupak izrade scenarija
vremenski okvir
Izraeni scenariji Scenario Method
Istraivanje mogueg razvoja ruralnih podruja sa socijalnogeografskoga gledita kako bi se potaknula rasprava o bu- in Spatial Research
dunosti(ma) ruralnog prostora; istraivanje naina na koji futuroloke tehnike mogu zadovoljiti kriterije znanstvenosti. and Planning
Na temelju analize drutvenih i ekonomskih obiljeja izraena je tipologija ruralnih podruja. Pomou klaster analize
dobiveno je sedam statistiki znaajnih klastera ili tipova ruralnih podruja. Skup varijabli upotrijebljenih u tipologiji,
Lowe i Ward, 2010/ pretvoren u dimenzije koje su predstavljale glavne faktore promjena, zajedno sa sedam tipova ruralnih podruja, inio
Engleska i Wales/ 2024. je matricu za model. Elementi matrice u daljnjem su postupku kalibrirani na temelju prosudbe stupnja utjecaja svake
dimenzije na tipove podruja. Upotrebom tehnike Monte Carlo za simulacije modela dobiveni su scenariji. Odabrani
scenariji elaborirani su na radionici sa strunjacima.
Razraeni su scenariji: Potroaki ruralni prostor, Dobar ivot 21. stoljea te Uspon rurbanoga", s razlikama u
demografskim i ekonomskim promjenama, zatiti okolia te reimu planiranja.
Izrada scenarija kroz participativni pristup s motrita okolinoga prostornog planiranja, odnosno izrade dugoronoga
socijalnog i ekonomskog plana regionalnog parka.
Proces scenarijskog planiranja poeo je unutar planerskog tima, a potom je parkovska agencija organizirala sastanak s
Celino i Concilio, 2010/ akterima. Scenariji su strukturirani prema opisu problema kojima se bave, prepoznavanju podruja intervencije i opisu
Regionalni park delte Po intervencije.
(Italija)/ -
Unutar plana izraeni su kratkorono-srednjoroni scenariji, s hitnim intervencijama za zatitu okolia, te dugoroni,
strukturirani scenariji sa skupinama intervencija. U preliminarnom planu identificirani su: 1) Prema zajednikoj viziji
Parka, 2) Inovacija i 3) Mrea agencija i institucija. Oni su dinamine vizije planiranih aktivnosti, ukljuenih aktera
i moguih uinaka tih aktivnosti; mogu se razvijati kroz proces planiranja te fazu implementacije.
Analiza potencijalnih posljedica promjena egzogenih procesa (kao to su liberalizacija trita ili razvoj regionalnih
trita) na endogene procese u ruralnom podruju.
Valbuena i dr., 2010/ Primijenjeno je modeliranje pomou agenata. Na temelju postojeih trendova i regionaliziranih verzija SRES scenarija
Achterhoek (Nizozemska)/ analizirana su tri scenarija. Simulirani rezultati validirani su provoenjem nestrukturiranih intervjua s pet strunjaka
2020. iz regije.
Trend-scenarij odnosi se na nastavak sadanjih trendova u regiji, dok scenariji A1 i B2 sagledavaju utjecaj liberalizacije,
odnosno jae regionalizacije svijeta, na strukturu pejzaa.
Regionalno strateko planiranje i sagledavanje kljunih indikatora za vrednovanje mjera upravljanja. Povezivanje znan-
stvenika, dionika i donositelja odluka kako bi se razvili kvalitativni opisi i poboljala simulacija modela.
Petrov i dr., 2011/
Tijekom ljetne kole i radionice znanstvenici i dionici izradili su etiri kvalitativna scenarija regionalnog razvoja. Oni su
Regija Velikog Dublina
kvantificirani i prevedeni" u parametre modela MOLAND radi izrade karata koritenja zemljita 2026.
(Irska)/ 2026.
Trend-scenarij te scenariji Kompaktni razvoj/zatita okolia, Upravljana disperzija i Recesija promatraju urbani
razvoj u razliitim inaicama irega razvojnog okvira.
Potpora stratekom odluivanju o regionalnom razvoju s motrita odrivosti te povezivanja kvalitativnog odluivanja s
kvantitativnim analitikim pristupom.
U izradi scenarija upotrijebljeno je multikriterijsko vrednovanje na temelju fizikih, socio-ekonomskih i regionalnih
de Noronha Vaz i dr., obiljeja, prioritiziranih pomou analitikoga hijerarhijskog procesa, to je vodilo izradi scenarija s razliitom kvan-
2012/ Algarve (Portugal)/ tifikacijom parova. Posrijedi je bio kvalitativni strukturni proces donoenja odluka, u kojem se ne kvantificira samo
2020. jedna najbolja odluka, ve se okuplja niz razliitih vrijednosti za donoenje odluka u odreenom prostoru i vremenu.
Ponavljanjima modela staninih automata generiran je scenarij buduega urbanog rasta do 2020.
Scenariji Ekoloki interes, Trend-scenarij i Ekonomski interes predstavljaju mogue trendove koritenja zemljita
koji ovise o donoenju odluka i ekonomskom/poljoprivrednom razvoju te njegovu odnosu s turizmom.

Izvor: radovi i publikacije navedene u lijevom stupcu

S motrita odrivog razvoja Nijkamp i Vreeker velopment, Nijkamp and Vreeker (2000) describe
(2000) iznose primjer analize razvojnih scenarija the example of development scenarios analysis in
s obzirom na njihov utjecaj na indikatore odri- relation to their influences on sustainability indica-
vosti (ekonomski, socijalni, demografski i oko- tors (economic, social, demographic, and environ-
lini indikatori) prostora regije Songkhla/Hat mental) in the Songkhla/Hat Yai region in southern
Yai u junom Tajlandu. Prostorni planovi obino Thailand. Spatial plans usually include a range of
ukljuuju niz ciljeva vezanih uz okoli i predlau environmental targets and propose natural resource
aktivnosti za upravljanje prirodnim resursima, management actions for their achievement, which

59
HRVATSKI
GEOGRAFSKI
GLASNIK Tab. 2 A review of selected examples from European countries
78/1, 4571 (2016.)

The purpose of scenario development


Source/
Area/ The procedure of scenario development
Time frame/
Developed scenarios

Testing a strategy for stakeholder participation in planning in rural areas.

Tress and Tress, 2003/ Through predominance of specific land uses, extreme scenarios were defined and visualised by photorealistic design tech-
Kravlund (Denmark)/2020. niques. They were presented to stakeholders in order to identify their interests through a discussion and a questionnaire.
Extreme scenarios showed the dominance of certain land uses: industrial farming, recreation and tourism, nature
conservation, and residential expansion.

Evaluating the effects of socio-economic and demographic scenarios on nature and the landscape.

The scenarios are related to SRES scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change developed at the
de Nijs et al., 2004/ global level. Elements from thematic analyses were combined into integrated spatial scenarios. To construct detailed
The Netherlands/ 2030. land-use maps on the basis of scenarios and additional indicators of land-use change, a cellular automata model The
Environment Explorer, was used.
The integrated scenarios are Individual World, Individual Region, Co-operative World, and Co-operative Regi-
on, with differences in approach to agricultural markets, zoning, and land use.
Exploration of land-use change and degradation, focusing on participatory scenario development within the MedA-
ction project.
Kok et al., 2006b/ To develop local scenarios, previously constructed scenarios for the European and the Mediterranean levels were used
Guadalentn (Spain) and as boundary conditions. In the course of workshops with stakeholders, an exploratory forecasting methodology was
Val dAgri (Italy)/ 2030. employed, followed by a backcasting exercise, and an identification of possible policy measures.

Multiple qualitative scenarios were constructed.

Researching possible economic and land-use changes resulting from decreasing subsidies for mountain agriculture
and the liberalisation of markets; discussing the methodological implications of combining the role of participatory
involvement and integrated numerical modelling.
Impact matrices, system graphs, and scenario tables with descriptions of the evolution of elements important for re-
gional development were constructed through workshops with local actors, and coherent qualitative scenarios drawn.
Walz et al., 2007/ Elaboration of qualitative scenarios was the basis for setting the input parameters for the numeric simulation. The
Davos (Switzerland)/ 2050. parameters were quantified with the help of an in-depth literature review. These values were used in the ALPSCAPE
integrated modelling framework to simulate the scenarios and enhance the storylines.
With a considerable decline in subsidies for mountain agriculture, the price of agricultural products will rise. Scenario
A assumes an increase in the demand for local products in spite of the rise in prices of the products, while Scenario
B assumes that the demand will strongly reduce. The Land Use Allocation Model suggested strong impacts on the
landscape for both scenarios, with over 1700 ha of abandoned land within the 50-year simulation period.
An analysis of impacts of tourism on land-use dynamics in relation to different policies for tourism development, and
consideration of the implications for spatial planning.
Following contextual consideration of the development of the region and prior planning efforts, and an analysis of
different indicators, a matrix of qualitative scenarios based on population, economy, and planning policy was developed.
Petrov et al., 2009/ Key assumptions on the state and trends of development, and different activities in qualitative descriptions were linked
Algarve (Portugal)/ 2020. to a parameter(s) in the MOLAND model for simulating urban and regional scenarios, for the evaluation of policies
and programmes that have a territorial impact.
The scenarios Business-as-usual, Scattered Development and Compact Development were based on two main
driving forces for future land-use change at the NUTS 3 level: (a) population flux; (b) economic development. The
growth of built-up areas was calculated proportionally to changes in population, GDP, and growth in the production
and service sectors (a macroeconomic model was also used).

The ROK project ran between 2007 and 2009, with the goal of generating spatial development scenarios.

The scenario project team (external experts) and the ROK working group (representatives of government authori-
ties) defined spatially relevant themes for the construction of thematic/sectoral scenarios. Predominantly qualitative
thematic scenarios were defined on the basis of trends and possible developments of key driving forces, and completed
Williams et al., 2009/ through workshop discussions with experts. The scenario team developed four integrated spatial scenarios, discussed
Austria/ 2030. in an additional workshop, and presented later (including a discussion on recommendations/consequences) at a confe-
rence for decision-makers in spatial planning and regional development. Indicators for monitoring changes in relevant
driving forces were defined in order to anticipate better long-term future developments.
The integrated spatial scenarios are extreme scenarios with the goal of creating resilient policies that can cope with
changes in current development trends: Overall Growth, Overall Competition, Overall Security, and Overall
Risk.

60
P. Radeljak
Kaufmann

Metoda scenarija
The purpose of scenario development u istraivanju i
Source/ planiranju prostora
Area/ The procedure of scenario development
Time frame/
Developed scenarios Scenario Method
Researching possible rural development from a socio-geographical perspective in order to encourage the debate on in Spatial Research
rural future(s); exploring how techniques used by futurologists might satisfy the criteria of scientific rigour. and Planning
Based on an analysis of social and economic characteristics a typology of rural areas was developed. A cluster analysis
produced seven statistically significant clusters or types of rural area. A list of change-drivers derived from variables
Lowe and Ward, 2010/ used to construct the typology was set against the seven components of the typology to create a matrix for the model.
England and Wales/ 2024. Following this, the calibration of the matrix required judgement to be exercised on the degree to which each chan-
ge-driver would impact on the different area types. The Monte Carlo procedure, used to run simulations of the model,
resulted in a set of scenarios. The selected scenarios were examined at a workshop of invited experts.
The following scenarios were created: The Consumption Countryside, The 21st-Century Good Life, and The Rise
of the Rurbs, with differences in demographic and economic change, environmental protection, and planning policies.
Constructing scenarios through a participatory approach in the context of environmental spatial planning, i.e. a con-
struction of long-term social and economic plan of a regional park.
The scenario planning process started from within the planning unit, and afterwards the park agency organised a mee-
Celino and Concilio, 2010/ ting with actors. Scenarios were structured according to the description of the problem they addressed, identification
The Po Delta Regional of the fields of intervention, and description of interventions.
Park (Italy)/ - Within the plan, short-medium term scenarios were constructed, with urgent interventions for the protection of the
environment, and long-term, structured scenarios, with groups of interventions. In the preliminary plan the following
scenarios have been identified: 1. Towards a collective vision of the Park; 2. Innovation; 3. Network of agencies and
institutions. They are dynamic visions of planning activities, involved actors, and the possible impacts derived from
these actions; they can evolve along the planning process and the implementation phase.
Analysing potential consequences of changes in the exogenous processes (such as market liberalisation or development
of regional markets) on the endogenous process in a rural area.
Valbuena et al., 2010/ Agent-based modelling was used. Based on the current trends and on regionalised versions of the SRES scenarios,
Achterhoek (The Nether- three different scenarios were analysed. Simulated results were validated through carrying out unstructured interviews
lands)/ 2020. with five experts of the region.
Trend scenario envisions a continuation of the current trends in the region, while A1 and B2 scenarios explore the
impacts of a more liberalised and a more regionalised world on landscape structure.
Regional strategic planning and examining examples critical for policy evaluation purposes. Linking scientists, stake-
holders and decision-makers to develop storylines and improve the model simulation.
Petrov et al., 2011/ Four scenarios of regional development were produced by scientists and stakeholders during a summer school and
The Greater Dublin workshop. They were quantified and translated into parameters of the MOLAND model to create land-use maps for
Region (Ireland)/ 2026. 2026.
Business as usual, Compact development/Environmental friendly, Managed dispersed, and Recession examine
urban development in alternative wider development frames.
Support for strategic decision-making on development of the region having in mind sustainability and an integration
of qualitative decision-making within a quantitative analytical approach.
Multi-criteria Evaluation was used on the basis of physical, socio-economic, and regional characteristics, which were
de Noronha Vaz et al.,
prioritised by means of an Analytical Hierarchy Process, which led to the design of scenarios with different pairwise
2012/
quantification. This was a qualitative structural decision process which, rather than quantifying just one best decision,
The Algarve (Portugal)/
aggregates a range of different values balanced for decision-making in a specific space-time context. The iterations of
2020.
the cellular automata model enabled generation of the future urban growth scenario for the year 2020.
Scenarios Ecological Interest, Business as usual and Economic Interest present possible land-use trends depen-
ding on decision-making and economic/agricultural development and its direct relation to tourism.

Source: papers and publications of authors referred to in the left-hand column

to zahtijeva bitne dugorone promjene u kori- require substantial change in land use and man-
tenju i upravljanju zemljitem. Postupak inte- agement over the long term. Integrated assessment,
griranog procjenjivanja, kroz interdisciplinarnost through interdisciplinarity and a participatory ap-
i participativni pristup, osobito je prikladan za proach, is especially suitable in quantifying the im-
kvantifikaciju uinaka na okoli pomou niza pacts on the environment under a range of future
buduih scenarija (Bryan i dr., 2011). scenarios (Bryan et al., 2011).

61
HRVATSKI
GEOGRAFSKI
GLASNIK Tab. 3. Pregled odabranih primjera scenarija u drugim svjetskim dravama
78/1, 4571 (2016.)

Svrha izrade scenarija


Izvor/
prostor/ Postupak izrade scenarija
vremenski okvir
Izraeni scenariji
Studija sluaja u okviru projekta Concerted Action s ciljem analize meuovisnosti strukturnih promjena u poljoprivredi,
migraciji iz ruralnih u urbana podruja te razvoju Tunisa.
Barbanente i dr., 2002/ Nakon intervjua s lokalnim dionicima i predstavljanja projekta, potom definiranja problema i selektiranja problemskih
grad Tunis (Tunis)/ 2020. podruja putem modificirane metode Delfi te provedene "radionice o budunosti" u konanici su razvijeni scenariji.
Scenariji Grad-toranj, Ekograd i Humani grad za metropolitansku regiju Tunisa ukljuili su vizije, mogua ogra-
nienja i probleme koje bi trebalo rijeiti i strategije koje bi trebalo primijeniti radi ostvarivanja ciljeva.

Usporedba razliitih mogunosti prostornog planiranja s obzirom na uinke na okoli.


Geneletti, 2012/
Pet mogunosti prostornog planiranja razraeno je u suradnji s planerskim timom. Scenariji budueg koritenja zemlji-
grad Caia (Mozambik)/
ta kartografski su vizualizirani prostornim modeliranjem u GIS-u. Upotrijebljen je sustav za planiranje What if?.
2018.
Scenariji su kartografski prikazi moguih naina koritenja zemljita s obzirom na kombinaciju prostornoplanskih
mjera P (zoniranje i lokacija infrastrukture i usluga) i projekcija rasta broja stanovnika (niski, srednji i visoki rast).
Izrada i analiza scenarija kao doprinos planiranju i upravljanju gradom Yalova, odnosno potpora integriranom vred-
novanju razvojnih strategija s ekonomskoga, drutvenoga i ekolokoga gledita. Povezivanje strukturnih utjecaja na
svjetskoj i nacionalnoj razini s lokalnim faktorima i mogunostima izbora drutvenih aktera.
Pregledom globalnih scenarijskih studija te relevantnih dokumenata i literature izdvojeni su glavni neizvjesni faktori
zkaynak, 2008/ na svjetskoj, regionalnoj i nacionalnoj razini. Slijedei metodologiju vanih faktora i vanih aktera Bertranda i dr.
grad Yalova (Turska)/ iz 1999., predstavljene su etiri trajektorije za Yalovu i potom istraeni interesi i odnosi moi dionika te potencijalna
2020. uloga u njihovu oblikovanju. Provedeni su dubinski intervjui, fokus-grupe, radionice te anketno istraivanje. Prve
verzije scenarija evaluirali su pripadnici akademske zajednice te su prezentirani na zavrnoj radionici na lokalnoj razini.
Scenariji Yalova unutar slobodnog trita, Yalova unutar socijalne Europe, Trend-scenarij u Yalovi te Interno
orijentirana Yalova temelje se na skupu postavki povezanih s kljunim neizvjesnim vanjskim faktorima: globalizacijom,
EU-om i budunou socijalnih i mjera vezanih uz okoli s jedne te odnosima Turske i EU-a s druge strane.

Utvrivanje optimalnog naina koritenja zemljita za odrivi razvoj obalnih podruja.

Pourebrahim i dr., 2011/ Analizirani su postojei dokumenti i razvojne strategije te organizirane radionice sa strunjacima na kojima su razra-
okrug Kuala Langat eni kriteriji i indikatori koritenja zemljita. Potom je izraena baza podataka u ArcGIS-u. Scenariji su definirani i
(Malezija)/ - provedena je analiza prikladnosti razliitih naina koritenja zemljita.
Koritenje zemljita u trima scenarijima poiva na razliitim imbenicima odrivog razvoja. Vrednovanjem scenarija,
postojeih planova i smjernica, raspoloivosti zemljita te postojeeg naina koritenja zemljita predloen je optimalni
plan za odrivo koritenje zemljita u obalnom podruju.

Prognoziranje varijanti urbanog razvoja.

Thapa i Murayama, 2012/ Razvijen je model promjene koritenja zemljita (umjetnih neuronskih mrea) na temelju daljinskih istraivanja, karata
dolina Katmandu (Nepal)/ naina koritenja zemljita, digitalnog modela reljefa te socioekonomskih pokazatelja. Simulacijama modela ispitane
2050. su varijante urbanog razvoja.

Razmotreni su spontani scenarij, scenarij zatite okolia i scenarij ouvanja resursa.

Razvoj integriranog GIS analitikog sustava za upravljanje koritenjem zemljita.


Liu i dr., 2007/
Analizirani su podsustavi stanovnitvo, gospodarstvo, postojei nain koritenja zemljita i okoli, identificirane su
dio urbane regije Wuhana
mogue promjene naina koritenja zemljita, izraen je, verificiran i validiran model te su izraeni i sagledani scenariji.
(Kina)/ 2020
Prvi scenarij razmatra promjene koritenja zemljita prema sadanjim razvojnim trendovima, a drugi utjecaj lokalnog
upravljanja na urbanizaciju i preinake ekonomske strukture.
Izrada i vrednovanje scenarija planiranja koritenja zemljita te usporedba razliitih tehnika planiranja u sklopu izrade
doktorske disertacije.
Pettit i Pullar, 200-/ Scenariji planiranja razvijaju se na temelju planskih dokumenata i modeliraju pomou modela disagregacije, linearnog
Zaljev Hervey (Australija)/ programiranja i multikriterijske analize. Scenariji se vrednuju na temelju glavnih ciljeva navedenih u planskim doku-
2021. mentima te dorauju kroz proces vrednovanja. U konanici se formulira zavrni scenarij planiranja.
Razraeni su scenariji planiranja koritenja zemljita: Budui trendovi; Maksimiziranje zapoljavanja i Odrivi
razvoj.

62
P. Radeljak
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Metoda scenarija
Svrha izrade scenarija u istraivanju i
Izvor/ planiranju prostora
prostor/ Postupak izrade scenarija
vremenski okvir
Izraeni scenariji Scenario Method
Dio analize budunosti pejzaa radi boljeg donoenja odluka u stratekome regionalnom planiranju, prepoznavanjem in Spatial Research
koristi i trokova specifinih prostornoplanskih mjera. and Planning
Scenariji su izraeni u suradnji s dionicima. Potom su upotrijebljene kvantitativne tehnike, povezivanje niza prostornih
Bryan i dr., 2011/ informacija i modela. Linearno programiranje pokazalo se osobito korisnim za regionalno planiranje, s obzirom na
regija Mallee (Australija)/ - skup optimalnih ishoda temeljenih na jasno identificiranim ciljevima.
Scenarijima se eljelo ispitati kako promjene vanjskih faktora utjeu na ostvarenje regionalnih ciljeva. Uz trend-scena-
rij, razmotreni su blago zagrijavanje/sua, umjereno zagrijavanje/sua te veliko zagrijavanje/sua. Analiza budunosti
pejzaa unutar razliitih mogunosti planiranja i scenarija omoguuje usporedbu relativnog utjecaja unutarnjih odluka
(stratekoga prostornog planiranja) u odnosu na vanjske faktore (promjene klime i cijene energenata).

Razvoj metode prenoenja projekcija iz SRES scenarija na razinu ekolokih regija u SAD-u.

Sleeter i dr., 2012/ Inicijalni narativni opisi izraeni su prema miljenjima strunjaka i pregledom relevantne literature te rafinirani kroz
SAD (na nacionalnoj i kvantitativni postupak. U okvir modela inkorporirani su rezultati modela IMAGE 2.2, inventara promjena zemljinog
razini 84 ekoloke regije)/ pokrova i naina koritenja zemljita 1973. 2000. te znanje strunjaka, odnosno njihova interpretacija glavnih faktora
2100. promjena. Miljenje strunjaka dobiveno je putem radionice i potom ad-hoc konzultacija.
Razraena su dva globalna (A1B i B1) i dva regionalna (A2 i B2) scenarija, s razlikama primjerice u ekonomskom rastu
i tehnolokom razvoju, demografskim i promjenama zemljinog pokrova i naina koritenja zemljita.

Izvor: radovi i publikacije navedene u lijevom stupcu

Scenariji na niim prostornim razinama esto Scenarios at lower spatial levels often rely on
se zasnivaju na scenarijima izraenima na viim scenarios developed at higher levels. Sleeter et al.
razinama. Tako su Sleeter i dr. (2012) prikaza- (2012) showed the methods and results of down-
li metode i rezultate prenoenja globalnih SRES scaling global SRES scenarios10 to ecological re-
scenarija10 na razinu ekoregija u SAD-a. Pokaza- gions of the conterminous United States. The found
telji promjena zemljinog pokrova i naina kori- indicators of land-use and land-cover change were
tenja zemljita do kojih su doli konzistentni su consistent with the original global scenario as-
s izvornim pretpostavkama globalnih scenarija, ali sumptions, and also with local scale land-use and
i lokalnim trendovima promjene zemljinog po- land-cover change histories. However, zkaynak
krova i naina koritenja zemljita. No zkaynak and Rodrguez-Labajos (2010) warned that sce-
i Rodrguez-Labajos (2010) upozoravaju da se narios built at the local level are often downscaled
scenariji koji se izrauju na lokalnoj razini esto from higher scales, or developed within the bound-
prenose s viih razina, ili razvijaju unutar graninih ary conditions of global and national scales, without
uvjeta svjetske i nacionalnih razina, bez temeljitog taking local conditions thoroughly into account. In
uzimanja u obzir lokalnih uvjeta. Sukladno tome, accordance with this, constructing local-scale sce-
izrada scenarija lokalne razine koji dobro integri- narios that integrate global and national influences
raju svjetske i nacionalne utjecaje s lokalnim fak- well with local factors and actors, choices remains
torima i izborima aktera ostaje izazov (zkaynak a challenge (zkaynak and Rodrguez-Labajos,
i Rodrguez-Labajos, 2010). Osim toga primjer 2010). Furthermore, the example of the MedAc-
projekta MedAction upozorio je na potekoe u tion project pointed to difficulties in upscaling the
prenoenju rezultata lokalnih scenarija na vie results of local scenarios due to the small sample

10 Rije je o scenarijima Meuvladina panela o promjeni klime izraenima radi boljeg razumijevanja implikacija buduih klimatskih promjena diljem
svijeta. Naslov izvjetaja temeljenog na scenarijima u izvorniku je Special Report on Emission Scenarios, zbog ega su scenariji postali poznati kao SRES
scenariji (Alcamo, 2001).
10 This concerns the scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change developed in order to understand better the implications of future
climate change throughout the world. The title of the report based on scenarios is Special Report on Emission Scenarios, and because of that the scenarios
became known as SRES scenarios (Alcamo, 2001).

63
HRVATSKI
GEOGRAFSKI
GLASNIK Tab. 3. A review of selected examples from other countries
78/1, 4571 (2016.)

The purpose of scenario development


Source/
Area/ The procedure of scenario development
Time frame/
Developed scenarios
A case study within the Concerted Action project, with the objective of making an analysis of the interdependency
between structural changes in agriculture, subsequent migration from rural to urban areas and the growth of Tunis.
Barbanente et al., 2002/ Scenarios were developed following interviews with local stakeholders, presentation of the project, definition of the
Tunis (Tunis)/ 2020. problems, selection of problem areas through a modified version of Delphi study, and a future workshop.
Scenarios Tower City, Eco City, and Human City for Metropolitan Tunis included visions, possible constraints,
and problems to tackle, and strategies to apply in order to accomplish set goals.

Comparison of the environmental effects of different spatial planning policies.

Geneletti, 2012/ Five different spatial plan policies were developed in collaboration with the planning team. Future land-use scenarios
Caia (Mozambique)/ 2018. were generated through spatial modelling within a GIS. What if?planning support system was used.
Scenarios are maps that represent future land uses under a combination of different spatial plan policies P (zoning
regulations and location of infrastructure and services) and population growth projections (low, medium, and high).
Scenario construction and analysis to contribute to planning and governance of the city of Yalova, i.e. to support
integrated assessment of alternative development trajectories from economic, social and environmental perspectives.
Integration of structural influences at global and national scales with local factors and choices of social actors.
Various global scenario studies and relevant documents were reviewed, and main global, regional and national uncer-
tainties recognised. Following a methodology called shaping factors and shaping actors (Bertrand et al., 1999), four
zkaynak, 2008/ trajectories for the city of Yalova were presented, and interests among various actors, the power networks, and their
Yalova (Turkey)/ 2020. potential to become agents of change explored. In-depth interviews, focus groups, workshops, and a questionnaire
survey were used. The resulting draft scenarios were evaluated by academics. The scenarios were presented at local level
in the final workshop.
Scenarios Yalova within free markets, Yalova within social Europe, Business as usual in Yalova, and Inward-look-
ing Yalova are based on a set of assumptions associated with two key external uncertainties: globalisation, the EU,
and the future of social and environmental policies on the one hand, and Turkeys relations with the EU, on the other.

Determining the optimal land-use suitability for future sustainable development in the coastal area.

Pourebrahim et al., 2011/ Existing documents and development strategies were analysed and workshops with experts conducted, in which crite-
Kuala Langat District ria and indicators of land use were explored. Following this, a GIS database was developed. Scenarios were defined and
(Malaysia)/ - a suitability analysis for different land uses conducted.
Land use in three scenarios is based on different factors of sustainable development. By evaluating various scenarios,
existing plans and guidelines, land availability and current uses, the optimum plan for sustainable coastal land uses
was proposed.

Predicting alternative urban growth allocations.

Thapa and Murayama, A land-use change (artificial neural network) model was developed based on remote sensing, land-use maps, a digital
2012/ Kathmandu Valley elevation model, and socioeconomic indicators. Through model simulations, future spatial growth allocations were
(Nepal)/ 2050. analysed.

Three scenarios were analysed: spontaneous, environment-protecting, and resources-saving.

Developing an integrated GIS-based analysis system for supporting land-use management.


Liu et al., 2007/
Four subsystems were analysed: the population, economic, current land use, and environmental subsystems; potential
the urban fringe of Wuhan
land-use changes identified; a model constructed, verified, and validated; scenarios drafted and investigated.
City (China)/ 2020.
The first scenario predicts land-use changes under the present developmental mode, while the second one considers
impacts of local policies on urbanisation, and modification of economic structure.
Developing and evaluating land-use scenarios, and comparing different planning techniques in the frame of a doctoral
dissertation.
Pettit and Pullar, 200-/ Planning scenarios are developed on the basis of planning documents and modelled (a model of disaggregation, linear
Hervey Bay (Australia)/ programming, and multiple criteria analysis are used). Scenarios are evaluated in relation to main objectives stated in
2021. planning documents and re-worked through the evaluation process. A final planning scenario is formulated at the end.
The following land use scenarios were drafted: Future Trends, Maximise Employment, and Sustainable
Development.

64
P. Radeljak
Kaufmann

Metoda scenarija
The purpose of scenario development u istraivanju i
Source/ planiranju prostora
Area/ The procedure of scenario development
Time frame/
Developed scenarios Scenario Method
A part of the landscape futures analysis to improve decision-making in strategic regional planning, by understanding in Spatial Research
the benefits and costs of specific planning policies. and Planning
Scenarios were developed in co-operation with stakeholders. Following that, quantitative techniques, integration of a va-
Bryan et al., 2011/ riety of detailed spatial information and models were used. The linear programming-based approach was found to be par-
Mallee region (Australia)/- ticularly useful for regional planning because it produces a set of optimal outcomes based on clearly identified objectives.
Future scenarios were designed to assess how changes in external drivers affect the impacts of achieving regional tar-
gets. Besides a baseline scenario, mild, moderate, and severe warming/drying scenarios were considered. The assessment
of landscape futures under different policy options and scenarios enables the comparison of the relative influence of
internal decisions (strategic spatial policy options) versus external factors (changes in climate and commodity prices).
Developing methods to downscale projections from the SRES scenarios to ecological regions of the conterminous
United States.
Sleeter et al., 2012/ Initial draft narratives were developed by using expert opinion and a review of relevant literature, and refined through-
USA (at the national out the quantitative process. In the frame of a model the IMAGE 2.2. model outputs, the land-use and land-cover
level and the level of 84 change 1973 2000 inventory, and expert knowledge (i.e. their interpretation of major driving forces of change) were
ecological regions)/ 2100. incorporated. Expert knowledge was elicited through a workshop, followed by ad-hoc consultations.
Two global (A1B and B1) and two regional (A2 and B2) scenarios were developed, with differences in e.g. economic
growth and technological development, demographics and change in land use and land cover.

Source: papers and publications of authors referred to in the left-hand column

prostorne razine zbog malog uzorka i (ne)repre- size and (non)representability, as well as issues in
zentativnosti te problema povezivanja razliitih merging different perceptions while scenarios at
percepcija dok su scenarije vie razine izraivali upper levels were designed by scientists and stake-
znanstvenici i dionici na regionalnoj i nacionalnoj holders at regional and national levels, local scenar-
razini, lokalne scenarije izraivali su lokalni dionici ios were drafted by local stakeholders (Kok et al.,
(Kok i dr., 2006a; Kok i dr., 2006b). 2006a; Kok et al., 2006b).

Scenariji prema tipovima Scenarios in relation to types


Analiza izloenih primjera pokazala je rele- The analysis of listed examples showed the rel-
vantnost prije izloenih osnovnih tipova scenari- evance of the previously described basic types of
ja: eksplorativnoga/normativnoga, kvalitativno- scenarios: of explorative/normative, qualitative/
ga/kvantitativnoga, strunoga/participativnoga i quantitative, expert/participatory, baseline/policy
osnovnoga/upravljakoga karaktera. Pritom su u character. In reality, scenarios are often combina-
stvarnosti scenariji esto kombinacije vie ide- tions of several ideal types. Scenarios facilitate the
alnih tipova. Scenariji omoguuju povezivanje integration of descriptive and narrative elements,
deskriptivnih i narativnih elemenata, odnosno and qualitative and quantitative information (Swart
kvalitativnih i kvantitativnih informacija (Swart i et al., 2004). Some of the analysed studies were
dr., 2004). Dio navedenih radova metodoloki je methodologically focused and oriented toward fur-
usmjeren i posveen upravo daljnjem razvoju po- ther development of specific qualitative and quanti-
jedinih kvalitativnih i kvantitativnih tehnika izrade tative techniques of scenario construction or toward
scenarija ili izazovima njihove integracije. challenges regarding their integration.
Openito, narativni pristup ukljuuje vane kva- Generally, the scenario narrative includes im-
litativne imbenike koji oblikuju razvoj kao to su portant qualitative factors shaping development
vrijednosti, ponaanje i institucije, pruajui ire such as values, behaviours and institutions, which
gledite u odnosu na samo matematiko modelira- provide a broader perspective than the mathemat-

65
HRVATSKI
GEOGRAFSKI
GLASNIK nje (Swart i dr., 2004). S druge strane, zbog ogra- ical modelling alone (Swart et al., 2004). On the
78/1, 4571 (2016.)
nienja numerikih modela kompleksnost sustava other hand, given the limitations of numerical
i raspon moguih scenarija moraju se reducirati za models and the complexity of the system, the range
simulaciju scenarija (npr. Walz i dr., 2007). Foa i of possible scenarios has to be reduced for scenario
Howard (2006) navode pak da scenarijskom pla- simulation (e.g. Walz et al., 2007). Foa and Howard
niranju esto nedostaje metodoloka specifinost u (2006), however, state that scenario planning often
tome to se oslanja na subjektivne analize dobive- lacks methodological specificity, in that it relies
ne putem radionica i konzultacija s dionicima vie upon subjective analyses produced through work-
nego na kvantitativno modeliranje. Vezano uz opa- shops and stakeholder consultation rather than
snost od prevelike primjene neformalnih pristupa, upon quantitative modelling. Connected to the
Neumann i verland (2004) napominju: iako se threat of overuse of informal approaches, Neumann
budunost ne moe spoznati, to ne znai da meto- and verland (2004) stress that although the future
de koje se primjenjuju za razmatranje mogunosti is unknowable, it does not follow that the methods
budueg razvoja ne mogu poivati na znanstvenim used to discuss possibilities of future development
standardima. cannot be held to scientific standards.
Rezultati kvantitativnih modela, primjerice Quantitative model outcomes, such as land-use
modela promjene koritenja i namjene zemlji- and land-cover change models, are vulnerable to
ta, osjetljivi su na kvalitetu ulaznih podataka, uncertainty in input data, structural uncertainties in
strukturu modela i parametre modela (Verburg the model and uncertainties in model parameters
i dr., 2013). Dobri modeli nisu uvijek dostupni (Verburg et al., 2013). Good models are not always
i potrebni su specijalizirani znanstvenici/stru- available and specialised personnel are needed to
njaci za njihovu upotrebu ili interpretaciju rezul- run them or interpret their output (Alcamo, 2008).
tat (Alcamo, 2008). I iako su iscrpne raunske And although the model,s detailed computational
procedure modela uglavnom presloene i tee procedures are generally too involved for non-ex-
razumljive nestrunjacima, njihova osnovna perts to understand, their underlying structure, as-
struktura, pretpostavke i ogranienja trebaju biti sumptions, and limitations should be as explicitly
to eksplicitnije i jasnije navedeni (Klosterman, and clearly stated as possible (Klosterman, 2007;
2007; Alcamo, 2001). Vrlo su vani transparen- Alcamo, 2001). The transparency of assumptions on
tnost pretpostavki o uzronim odnosima u os- causal relationships at the foundation of both quali-
novi i kvalitativnih scenarija (mentalni modeli) tative (mental models) and quantitative (formalised
i kvantitativnih scenarija (formalizirani modeli) models) scenarios is of great importance, as is an
te prihvatljiv stupanj znanstvene rigoroznosti u appropriate degree of scientific rigour in scenario
izradi scenarija (Alcamo i dr., 2006). construction (Alcamo et al., 2006).
U izradi scenarija esto sudjeluju dionici, ili Stakeholders are often included in the process of
imaju priliku utjecati na doradu i rafiniranje scenario development, or alternatively they can influ-
scenarija koje su izradili strunjaci. Scenari- ence the refinement of scenarios previously constructed
ji olakavaju diskusiju planerskih opcija meu by experts. Scenarios facilitate the discussion of plan-
skupinama dionika, strunjacima i razliitim ning options across stakeholder groups, professional
razinama uprave (Shearer, 2005) te podupiru disciplines, and levels of management (Shearer, 2005),
proces uenja za skupine i pojedince (Ringland, and support the process of learning for groups and in-
2006). Multidisciplinarni su, multidimenzional- dividuals (Ringland, 2006). They are multidisciplinary,
ni i temeljeni na razliitim iskustvima i osobno- multidimensional, and drawn from different experienc-
stima sudionika (Masini i Vasquez, 2000). Ce- es and personalities (Masini and Vasquez, 2000). Celi-
lino i Concilio (2010) opisuju izradu scenarija no and Concilio (2010) describe scenario development
u sklopu izrade socijalnog i ekonomskog plana in the course of Social and Economic Plan develop-
regionalnog parka koji obuhvaa deltu rijeke Po ment of the regional park in the area of the Po delta
(Veneto), gdje su scenariji zamiljeni kao alati (Veneto), where scenarios were conceived as a means to

66
P. Radeljak
Kaufmann
koji bi osigurali kontinuirani angaman mnogih assure the continuous engagement of multiple factors,
aktera, jer su akteri koji izrauju scenarije upra- given that the actors who construct scenarios are the Metoda scenarija
u istraivanju i
vo oni koji primjenjuju zamisli, donose odluke i same as the ones who implement ideas, make decisions
planiranju prostora
poduzimaju akcije. No, kao to je pokazalo isku- and take actions. However, as shown by the experience
stvo Barbanente i dr. (2002) na izradi scenarija of Barbanente et al. (2002) in scenario construction in Scenario Method
u Tunisu, odabir i ukljuivanje vanih dionika u Tunis, the selection and involvement of key stakehold- in Spatial Research
proces mogu biti vrlo teki, zbog indiferentno- ers in the process can be very difficult, either because and Planning

sti dionika prema ciljevima projekta ili nepovje- of indifference on the part of the stakeholders towards
renja prema njegovoj korisnosti, nepoznavanja the goals of the project or uncertainty about its useful-
metodologije, nenaviknutosti na participativni ness, the unfamiliar approach that was used, the fact
proces te osobito nevoljkosti dionika da iznesu that many would-be participants were unaccustomed to
miljenje o delikatnim pitanjima. U skladu s tim participatory procedures, and especially the reluctance
Rotmans i dr. (2000) napominju da pridavanje of stakeholders to reveal their opinions on delicate is-
vee vanosti participativnom pristupu ne znai sues. In accordance with this, Rotmans et al. (2000) no-
da e biti lako doista i ukljuiti dionike. Alca- tice the increasing importance of participation does not
mo i dr. (2006) smatraju da valja raditi na veoj mean it is easy actually to include stakeholders. Alcamo
relevantnosti scenarija za korisnike, kreativnosti et al. (2006) argue for working on the greater relevance
razmiljanja i vjerodostojnosti scenarija, izmeu of scenarios for users; creativity of thinking; credibility
ostaloga i u smislu unutarnje logike, konzisten- of scenarios, among other things also in the sense of
tnosti i koherentnosti. Transparentnost scenari- internal logic, consistency, and coherence. Transparen-
ja, koja podrazumijeva da korisnik scenarija ra- cy of scenarios, meaning that the scenario user under-
zumije to je uinjeno u izradi scenarija i korake stands what was done during scenario development,
u izradi te vjeruje da bi mogao ponoviti proces understands the steps in the development, believes that
i da bi se pri ponavljanju dolo do slinih re- he/she could duplicate the process and that having du-
zultata, poveava kredibilnost scenarija (Coates, plicated it similar results would occur, builds greater
2000). credibility in the scenario (Coates, 2000).

Zakljuak Conclusion
Na temelju analize tipologija scenarija izdvo- On the basis of an analysis of scenario typol-
jeni su osnovni tipovi scenarija relevantni u istra- ogies, underlying scenarios relevant in spatial
ivanju i planiranju prostora: a) eksplorativni, research and planning were recognised: a) ex-
deskriptivni, prognozirajui normativni, anti- plorative, descriptive, forecasting normative,
cipativni, retrognozirajui scenariji, b) kvalitativ- anticipatory, backcasting; b) qualitative quanti-
ni kvantitativni, c) struni participativni, d) tative; c) expert participatory; d) baseline pol-
osnovni upravljaki scenariji te e) ostali tipovi icy; and e) other types of scenarios. The analysis
scenarija. Analiza odabranih primjera upotrebe of selected examples of the scenario method used
metode scenarija u istraivanju i planiranju pro- in spatial research and planning showed the fol-
stora pokazala je sljedee: lowing:
1) Metoda scenarija u irem kontekstu pro- 1. The scenario method in the wide context of
stornoga ureenja prisutna je u razliitim svjet- spatial planning exists in different countries on
skim dravama i prostornim razinama: nacional- different spatial levels: national, regional, and lo-
noj, regionalnoj i lokalnoj. cal;
2) U pravilu se izrada scenarija temelji na ana- 2. As a rule, scenario construction is based on
lizi komponenata urbanog i ruralnog, odnosno analysis of components of urban and rural, or
integralnog razvoja uope, vrednovanju vie va- integral development, and evaluation of alterna-
rijanti moguega budueg razvoja i postavljanju tives of possible future developments, combined

67
HRVATSKI
GEOGRAFSKI
GLASNIK vrstih temelja strategija i specifinih mjera pla- to provide a firm ground for strategies and spe-
78/1, 4571 (2016.)
niranja i upravljanja. cific planning and policy measures;
3) Metoda scenarija povezana je s integralnim 3. The scenario method is connected to the
pristupom prostornom razvoju, ali i regionalno i integral approach to spatial development, but
lokalno specifinim temama. O prostornoj razini also to regionally and locally specific topics. The
i obiljejima prostora te pitanjima/temama koji- selection and approach to factors considered in
ma se scenariji bave ovisi koji se faktori i na koji the scenario development process depends on the
nain razmatraju u procesu razvijanja scenarija. spatial level, characteristics of areas in question,
4) Scenariji su tematska i metodoloka pove- and main topics/issues in scenarios;
znica istraivanja u okviru znanosti o okoliu i 4. Scenarios are thematic and methodological
prostornog planiranja, to se posebno odnosi na links between environmental science research
promiljanje odrivog razvoja, procjene utjecaja and spatial planning. These especially concern
na okoli, zatitu okolia i istraivanje promjena topics such as sustainable development, environ-
zemljinog pokrova i naina koritenja zemljita. mental assessments, environmental protection,
5) Scenariji na niim prostornim razinama and research of land-use and land-cover change;
esto se zasnivaju na scenarijima izraenima na 5. Scenarios at lower spatial levels are often
viim razinama. based on scenarios constructed for higher levels;
6) U izloenim primjerima zastupljeni su ti- 6. The selected examples encompassed types of
povi scenarija eksplorativnoga/normativnoga, scenarios of the explorative/normative, qualita-
kvalitativnoga/kvantitativnoga, strunoga/parti- tive/quantitative, expert/participatory and base-
cipativnoga i osnovnoga/upravljakoga karakte- line/policy characters, which shows the relevance
ra, to pokazuje relevantnost izdvojene tipologije of the described typology in spatial research and
u istraivanju i planiranju prostora. planning.
Korisnost metode scenarija u istraivanju i The usefulness of the scenario method in spa-
planiranju prostora proizlazi tako i iz samoga tial research and planning stems from the pro-
procesa izrade, koji podrazumijeva poveanje cess of scenario development, which includes an
znanja o razvojnim trendovima i prostornim ele- increase in the knowledge base regarding devel-
mentima za sve koji su ukljueni u proces, te ko- opment trends and spatial elements for everyone
nanoga produkta, koji moe voditi konkretnim included in the process, and the final product,
strategijama i mjerama upravljanja. Potrebno je which can lead to concrete strategies and policy
planirati i djelovati s motrita razliitih moguih measures. It is necessary to plan and act in the
budunosti. context of multiple possible futures.

Zahvala Ovaj rad sufinancirala je Hrvatska zaklada za This research was supported by the Croatian Sci-
Acknowledgement znanost projektom Primjena metode scenarija u ence Foundation under the project Croatian Rural
planiranju i razvoju ruralnih podruja Hrvatske Areas: Scenario-based Approach to Discuss Planning
br. 4513 te Ministarstvo znanosti, obrazovanja and Development No. 4513 and by the Ministry of
i sporta projektom Geografsko vrednovanje pro- Science, Education and Sports of the Republic of
stornih resursa ruralnih i krkih podruja Hrvatske Croatia under the project Geographic Evaluation of
br. 119-1191306-1369. Spatial Resources in Rural and Karst Areas of Croatia
No. 119-1191306-1369.

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Petra Radeljak Kaufmann radeljak@geog.pmf.hr Autor


dr. sc., poslijedoktorand, Sveuilite u Zagrebu, Prirodoslovno-matematiki fakultet, Geografski odsjek, Maruliev trg 19/II,
10 000 Zagreb, Hrvatska
Author

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