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PP 7767/09/2010(025354)

Malaysia Technical Research

RHB Research
Institute Sdn Bhd
A member of the
RHB Banking Group
Company No: 233327 -M

W e e kl y T e ch ni ca l V ie w p o int
16 August 2010

Commodities & Currencies

A Dramatic Rebound On The US$ Likely To Continue…

Chart Performance on Key Commodities:

Light Sweet Crude Oil futures (Crude)

Chart 1: Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures Weekly

♦ As feared, the US Light Sweet Crude Oil futures

plunged in last week’s trading following a record of a
“shooting star-like” candle in the week before.

♦ Chart wise, it recorded a huge bearish candle, pointing

to further selling pressure likely this week.

♦ As it also fell to below the supportive 40-week SMA of

US$77.4, coupled with the fresh “double sell” signal on
the momentum indicators, the Crude is poised to fall
further this week.

♦ It is therefore expected to revisit the crucial UTL near

US$73 soon, before showing any signs of a potential
technical rebound.

♦ If it loses the critical UTL, it will head to the low of

US$64.24 and the key support of US$60 soon.

Crude Palm Oil futures (CPO)

Chart 2: Crude Palm Oil Futures Weekly

♦ The crude palm oil futures (CPO) continued its stellar

uptrend last week, and moved into its fifth week of rally
to close one notch closer to its technical resistance of

♦ It recorded its fifth positive candle, suggesting follow-

through buying support likely this week.

♦ As the commodity moved to its fresh year high of

RM2,737 last Friday, it has forced the momentum
indicators to close even more upbeat last week.

♦ The CPO is going to retest the resistance of RM2,760

soon, in our view.

♦ Only if it fails to surpass this hurdle, will the profit-

taking activities resume. Otherwise, it could be well
underway to rise towards the RM3,000 – RM3,300
heavier resistance zone in the near future.

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Chart Intepretations On Selective Currencies:

Chart 3: RM/US$ Weekly Ringgit (RM)/US$

♦ Although the RM/US$ pair managed to reach a fresh

year low of 3.1388 last week, the pair rebounded and
ended the week with a positive candle.

♦ Last week’s candle, though it was not as bullish as a

“bullish engulfing” candle, it still indicates a potential
reversal on the recent negatively bias trend.

♦ Closed on the dot of the previous low of 3.16, the

ringgit could soften further against the US dollar, if the
chart surpasses the 3.16 level soon.

♦ That, if it occurs, will lead to a rebound on the

greenback towards the 3.29 level near the 35-week

♦ On the other hand, if it fails to remove 3.16, the

ringgit could rebound and force the US dollar to
resume its weakening path to 3.07 in the near term.

Chart 4: JPY/US$ Weekly Japanese Yen (JPY)/US$

♦ Despite two negative candles registered two weeks in

a row, the JPY/US$ managed to register a positive
candle last week.

♦ Closed at 86.28, near the crucial level of 87, and

almost on the dot of the Downtrend Resistance Line
(DRL), the pair is showing its resiliency of clinging
nearer to the crucial level of 87 and the DRL.

♦ Chart wise, as both the momentum indicators are

showing poor readings near the “oversold” region, any
rebound ahead, if any, could be shallow, in our view.

♦ Only if the pair surpasses the DRL and 87, will it

trigger a technical rebound on the US dollar.

♦ Otherwise, we remain positive bias on the strength of

the yen against the greenback.

Chart 5: EUR/US$ Weekly Euro Dollar (EUR)/US$

♦ The EUR/US$ pair surprised us with a sharp technical

rebound last week, registering a huge bullish candle on
the chart.

♦ The rebound, has lifted the pair to close back to above

the crucial level of 0.77 and above the 21-week SMA of

♦ This, coupled with the “double buy” signal n the

momentum indicators, suggests a follow-through
buying momentum likely on the US$ this week.

♦ In our view, if it sustains at above 0.77 in the near

term, it will see follow-through rally to 0.80 soon.

♦ Lower supports are seen at the recent low of 0.75 and

the crucial 0.73 level.

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Chart 6: US Dollar Index Weekly US Dollar Index (DXY)

♦ Surprisingly, the US Dollar index (DXY) staged a

powerful rebound last week, in tandem with the “eight-
to-ten” candle count pattern we highlighted earlier.

♦ Last week’s rebound halted its nine weeks of retreat

and showed a huge bullish weekly candle on the chart,
and traded back to above the crucial support of 81.

♦ Added with a “double buy” signal on the momentum

indicators, the dollar index is likely to see follow-
through buying momentum this week.

♦ If it removes the important 21-week SMA near 84, it

will rechallenge the key level of 85 in the near term.

♦ However, without removing this critical resistance

region from 84 – 85, we are of the view that the
index’s medium-term trend remains negative.


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Technical recommendation framework for stocks and sectors are as follows: -

Technical Recommendation:
Trading Buy = Short-term positive opportunity spotted. It is an aggressive trading recommendation with a book to sellers’ price for short-term technical upside.
Bargain Buy = Short-term positive but technical signals have yet to trigger a rally. Traders can park and queue for their desired entry level within a small range.
Buy on Weakness = Short- to Medium-term positiveness anticipated, but technical readings are still negative. Traders can pick-up the stock for future rally.
Sell on Strength = Short-term momentum still positive, Traders are advice to lock in profit base on current strength.
Take Profit = Short-term target achieved. Traders are advice to exit before the technical readings turn bearish.
Avoid = Risky situation in the short-term and high volatility expected on the share price. Traders’ best strategy is staying away until it stabilises.

Technical Time Frame:

Immediate-term = short time frame within a contra period.
Short-term = moderate time frame within two to three contra periods. For tracking purposes, we refer to 10 trading days.
Medium-term = medium time frame usually refers to two to three weeks period. For tracking purposes, we refer to 20 trading days.

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