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Company background
Cebu Landmasters, Inc.(CLI) is a real estate development company based in Cebu. It is owned by
the Soberano family, headed by Jose R. Soberano III, who is a local of Cebu. He put up CLI upon
retirement in 2000, after working forthe Ayala Group of Companies for over 23 years.
After 12 years of operations, the company has become one of the top real estate players in the
Visayas region with a growing mix of residential, commercial, hospitality, and mixed-used projects.
CLIs residential segment caters to multiple market segments. However, the companys strength lies
in the economic and mid-income residential categories, which can be seen in its residential revenue
mix: 44% economic, 38% mid-market, 16% high-end, and 2% socialized. Measured in terms of total
sales value, the companys project mix (including projects in different stages of development) is
composed of 80% residential projects, 17% commercial/office developments, and 3% hotel projects.
CLI currently has 13 projects completed and 15 projects in different stages of development.
3% 2%
16%
17%
44%
38%
80%
Assuming that the overallotment option is exercised, Cebu Landmasters will be offering 430Mil primary
shares and 150Mil secondary shares to local investors at Php5.00/sh. Post-IPO, the Soberano family
will own 66.2%, while the public will own the remaining 33.8%. The shares will be offered from May19
to May 26 and will be listed in the PSE on June 2. The company will be trading under the ticker CLI
with a market capitalization of Php8.6Bil.
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CLI will use the proceeds of the offer to partially finance key land acquisitions and investments
in joint ventures. The company is looking to expand its footprint in the VisMin regions, allocating
52% or Php1.1Bil of the proceeds to acquire strategic sites in CDO, Davao City, Bacolod, Iloilo
and Dumaguete. CLI will primarily roll out its mid-market residential format (the Garden-series) and
economic housing brand (Casa Mira) in these areas. Meanwhile, the company will allocate 36% or
Php730Mil of the proceeds to acquire various properties to increase its market share in the office,
retail, and hospitality segments. The remaining funds will be used for capital investments in its joint
ventures and associates.
Source: CLI
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CLI is well-positioned to capitalize on the favorable growth prospects of the Vis-Min region. Note
that during the past four years, the GDP CAGR of Western Visayas, Central Visayas, Northern
Mindanao, and Davao Region was quite fast, with the growth of Central Visayas and Davao
exceeding the average growth of the whole Philippines. The governments plan to increase
infrastructure spending outside the NCR should also help ensure the continuous growth of the
said regions.
Based on CLIs pipeline of projects, most of its projects are located in Cebu (Central Visayas).
However, it also plans to launch projects in other rapid growth areas such as Cagayan de Oro
(Northern Mindanao), Davao City (Davao Region), Bacolod (Western Visayas), Iloilo (Western
Visayas) and Dumaguete (Central Visayas), in the next few years. Given the background of Mr.
Jose R. Soberano III, he has both the expertise and connections in the local market to successfully
expand in the said areas.
8% 8%
7.2%
7% 6.5% 7%
6.1% PH
5.8% 5.8% 5.7%
6% 6.5% 6%
5% 4.7% 5%
4% 4%
3% 3%
2% 1.7% 2%
1% 1%
- -
The steady growth of OFW remittances in the Philippines (8% CAGR from 2011 to 2016) will remain
a significant driver and support the companys future growth. Note that sales to overseas Filipino
workers account for 39% of total sales and 60%-70% of horizontal residential sales. Moreover, the
regions where CLI is planning to expand (Western Visayas, Central Visayas, Northern Mindanao,
and Davao Region) account for 21% of the total OFWs in 2015.
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1,000 10%
9.5%
800 7.9% 8%
6.7%
600 6%
400 3.7% 4%
200 2%
- -
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: PSA
CLI has an excellent track record in executing its projects based on the companys high project
absorption rate and fast project turnover. Given the companys strategy of selling better quality
residential projects at a slight discount to its peers, CLI has successfully sold around 97% of its
13 completed projects. In fact, CLI boasts that most projects are fully sold in less than a year of
launch, with the fastest record at three weeks for its Casa Mira Linao project.
CLI also has a strategy of immediately developing a property once acquired and quickly turning
over the property to buyers once completed. On average, the company is able to convert raw land
to a fully developed project in 2 to 3 years. This is another reason why CLIs projects are attractive
to buyers.
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Given its excellent track record, CLI has managed to become one of the top real estate developers
in Metro Cebu despite being a new comer. According to Santos Knight Frank, CLI has an 11%
market share in residential condominium units in Metro Cebu, second only to Ayala Land, Inc. (ALI)
and followed by Filinvest Land, Inc. (FLI) at 17% and 8%, respectively. For the housing market
in Metro Cebu, CLI has 10% market share, second only to Primary Homes and followed by 8990
Development Corp. at 12% and 8%, respectively. For 2017, the company is targeting to grow its
revenues and net income by 64% y/y and 78% y/y to Php3.57Bil and Php1.25Bil, respectively.
Exhibit 10: Vertical residential market share in Metro Cebu (In terms of supply)
Primary Homes
7%
7% 7% Others
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Exhibit 11: Horizontal residential market share in Metro Cebu (In terms of units available)
12%
Cebu Landmasters
Vista Land
8%
Others
6%
CLI is currently developing 15 projects, which are in various stages of development (see Exhibit
12). Despite having sold a significant portion of these projects, most of these are not yet booked as
revenues due to the companys conservative revenue recognition policy wherein it only recognizes
revenues upon completing 80% of the project.
Source: CLI
For 2017, the company is also set to launch several projects in Metro Cebu such as the AS Fortuna
Center Mandaue, a mixed used project in Cebu. In addition, it also intends to launch Base Line
Center (Phase 2) and Casa Mira Towers this year, both of which are vertical residential projects.
Meanwhile, in the next two years, the company is looking to launch projects in key areas in VisMin
such as Casa Mira Coast in Dumaguete, Velmiro Heights in CDO, and Casa Mira Bacolod.
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From 2014 to 2016, CLI was able to grow its earnings by a CAGR of 27%. This is significantly
faster than the earnings growth of its peers, which only ranges from 7% to 13%. Given its rich
pipeline of projects, CLI is targeting to grow revenues from Php2.2Bil in 2016 to Php10.0Bil in
2020, translating to a four-year CAGR of 46%. It is also targeting to earn Php1.25Bil in 2017,
up 78% y/y. Ability to achieve its 2017 profit target is quite strong given the companys strong
reservation sales. CLIs 1Q17 reservation sales already reached Php2.2Bil. This is ~76% of last
years full-year reservation sale which amounted to Php2.9Bil.
Because of its asset light model, CLI also enjoys a very high ROE of ~50%. This is also significantly
higher compared to the ROE of its peers of 9% to 11%.
40%
30.3%
30% 27.3%
20%
13.3%
11.0% 10.9% 10.8%9.1%10.0%
10% 7.5% 7.3%
5.5%
-
Revenues Growth Net Income Growth 2016 ROE
Based on its IPO price of Php5.00/sh, we estimate that CLI will be trading at 6.1X 2017E P/E
assuming the company will reach its Php1.25Bil 2017 net income target. This is a discount
compared to the 6.8X average 2017E P/E of its peers (HOUSE, FLI, and VLL) notwithstanding its
attractive growth prospects.
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Source: Bloomberg
Key Risks:
Interest rate risk. Demand for residential properties could weaken given the expected rise in
interest rates. As interest rates increase, banks could also raise mortgage rates, which will make
purchases less affordable for home buyers.CLI is also highly leveraged with a D/E ratio of 1.6x as
of end 2016.
Nevertheless, we are of the view that interest rate increases will only be minimal given ample
liquidity and the governments strong finances. The Php2.0Bil net proceeds from the IPO should
also help provide funding for future requirements.
Limited recurring income. As of end 2016, the companys rental income was only ~2% of total
revenues. The companys recurring income assets include BPO floor space, executive office
space, residential units, and commercial units. According to CLI, these are currently delivering
an annual lease income of Php50Mil with a combined net leasable area of around 6,200 sqm.
Nevertheless, we continue to like the companys plan to expand its recurring income segment as
it aims to grow its annual recurring income to Php120Mil by 2019 with the completion of Base Line
Center (Phase 1), 38 Park Avenue, and AS Fortuna Center Mandaue.
Limited land bank. CLI has a limited land bank (630,824 sqm as of end-2016). Although this
asset-light strategy has allowed the company to enjoy high margins and ROEs, it could also put
future earnings growth at risk. Note that the company might encounter difficulties in acquiring land
at reasonable prices in the future due to increasing competition in Visayas and Mindanao and
rising inflation rates. Delays in acquiring land could put the companys expansion plans on hold,
while acquiring land at a premium may lead to margin pressure.
However, CLI said that acquiring land is not a challenge at this point. Given the companys strong
brand name and track record in Cebu, it currently has more than enough joint venture project
proposals that will provide it with a steady stream of projects in the next few years.
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Current Liabilities
Interest-bearing loans 569 533 788
Trade and other payables 382 357 487
Customers deposits 306 424 457
Reserve for property development 157 206 327
1,414 1,519 2,060
Non-Current Liabilities
Interest-bearing loans 431 802 1,604
Trade and other payables 43 22 17
Post-employment defined benefit obligation 3 5 2
Deferred tax liability - net 23 60 126
500 888 1,749
Equity
Capital stock 538 838 1,284
Revaluation reserves (0) (3) (1)
Retained earnings 373 409 255
911 1,244 1,538
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HOLD
Stocks that have a HOLD rating have either 1) attractive fundamentals but expensive valuations 2) attractive valuations but near-term earnings outlook might
be poor or vulnerable to numerous risks. Given the said factors, the share price of the stock may perform merely in line or underperform in the market in the
next six to twelve months.
SELL
We dislike both the valuations and fundamentals of stocks with a SELL rating. We expect the share price to underperform in the next six to12 months.
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information may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute the judgment of COLs Equity Research Department as of the date of the
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