Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Insight
Q2 2017
Page 1
Table of Contents
Economic Overview 3
Toronto 6
Montreal 10
Vancouver 14
Calgary 18
Edmonton 22
Page 2
Canadian Economy
Q2 2017
Retail sales rose 0.8 percent, on a monthly basis as of April 2017, and 1H17 Benchmark Bond Yield (%)
manufacturing sales continued their rise for a third consecutive month, Canada 10-Yr Yield
2.7
up 1.1 percent in May 2017. An important aspect of this growth is that the US 10-Yr Yield
upgrade to 2017 figures is largely due to consumption and inventories, 2.5
while investment is now seen to be slightly less of a drag on growth than 2.3
previously thought. Those upgrades more than offset downgrades to 2.1 71bp 36bp
contributions from government and trade. The contribution of housing 1.9
has been left unchanged for both this year and next as of June 2017. 1.7
1.5
Overall, the rise in the economy bodes well for Canadian commercial
1.3
real estate, especially in the office, industrial and retail sectors. 3-Jan-17 10-Mar-17 15-May-17 20-Jul-17
Outlook
Steady rise in retail and manufacturing sales
The market expects that the BoC will raise its policy rate by a further 25 (C$bn)
basis point increase to 1.0 percent on 25 October 2017. This would result Retail Sales
in the BoC having reversed the emergency 50 basis points of rate cuts $55.0 Manufacturing sales
from 2015 in response to the decline in oil prices. However, as core
inflation has been declining and inflation expectations are still in the $52.5
lower half of the BoCs target range, we foresee the BoC to be cautious
in its stance on raising rates for post the October decision, if any change $50.0
2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to
the accuracy thereof.
Page 3
3 key trends
Page 4
Canada
Capital Markets Insight Q2 2017
0.9%
1.6%
3.0% Toronto 2.4% Office
4.7% 8.8%
3.2% Vancouver Industrial
6.0% Montreal 12.7% Multifamily
39.2%
9.4% 48.0% Other Ontario Retail
Edmonton Land
17.4%
Calgary Hotel
23.2%
Other BC 19.5%
Other Quebec
RoC
0.6% 0.3%
Private Investors Canada
4.6% 3.6%
9.5%
Investment Funds United States
Corporates/Govt. Singapore
17.1%
REIT/REOC Sweden
Pension Funds
16.5% 52.3%
95.5%
Page 5
Toronto
Capital Markets Insight Q2 2017
Page 6
Toronto
Capital Markets Insight Q2 2017
Sweden
97.8%
Cap rates remain largely unchanged or Under Construction (s.f.) 1,053,881 1,030,588 1,082,668
compressed slightly in some sub-markets 5.25%- 5.25%- 5.25%-
Class A Cap Rate (%)
6.00% 6.00% 6.00%
Industrial
Q2 2017 investments in the industrial sector Industrial 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
totaled $690M representing a +7 percent volume Vacancy Rate (%) 2.1% 2.7% 2.9%
increase on an annual basis Net Asking Rent (p.s.f.) $6.13 $6.15 $6.17
Corporate/Government users and pension funds Net Absorption (s.f.) 897,414 1,580,988 1,751,780
were the largest investor group this quarter New Supply (s.f.) 741,960 2,510,239 3,046,501
accounting for 41 percent and 26 percent of total
Under Construction (s.f.) 6,949,822 6,258,155 5,712,484
investment volumes respectively
4.25%- 4.25%- 4.25%-
Demand for industrial space continues to exceed Class A Cap Rate (%)
5.00% 5.00% 5.00%
supply as the logistics, warehousing and e-
commerce footprint increases
Investors are particularly on the lookout for new
generation big-box distribution product which
has the potential to be customized to meet the
demands of tenants involved in e-commerce
Cap rates remain largely unchanged or Source: JLL Research
compressed slightly in some sub-markets
2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to
the accuracy thereof.
Page 8
Toronto
Q2 2017
Capital Markets Insight
Multifamily
The multifamily sector continues to see a record Multifamily 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
pace of investment activity as overall investment
Overall Vacancy Rate (%) 1.3% 1.3% 1.3%
volumes for 2Q17 stood at approximately $350
3.50%- 3.25%- 3.25%-
million, up from approximately $160 million in High Rise A Cap Rate (%)
4.00% 4.00% 4.00%
1Q17. We note the strong demand for product in 3.50%- 3.25%- 3.25%-
the market and foresee a voracious appetite for Low Rise A Cap Rate (%)
4.00% 4.00% 4.00%
multifamily assets throughout Toronto and the
GTA
Most deals in the GTA market are in the class B
to C product range, with not many A class
buildings trading and none of which are to scale
Given the escalation in value and increased
sophistication required to remain competitive,
mom and pop ownership is becoming rarer in
buildings larger than 50 units
Retail
Investment activity continues to be driven by low
interest rates and increased demand from both Retail 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
institutional and private capital. We note that 4.50%- 4.00%- 4.00%-
Regional Cap Rate (%)
5.00% 4.50% 4.50%
retail cap rates continue to compress, with
5.00%- 4.50%- 4.50%-
remarkable increases in value in major urban Power Center Cap Rate (%)
6.00% 5.50% 5.50%
centers 5.25%- 5.00%- 5.00%-
Anchored Strip Cap Rate (%)
Urban retail is a huge focus area for many large 6.25% 5.75% 5.75%
Canadian REITs and institutional owners. 4.00%- 3.50%- 3.50%-
Urban Streetfront Cap Rate (%)
Investors are keenly focused on the 4.50% 4.50% 4.50%
redevelopment potential and the upcoming
residential density of the area around potential
retail sites
The trending departure of retailers from some
traditional malls has opened opportunities for
both landlords and tenants to restructure lease
terms, uses and mall layouts to match consumer
Source: JLL Research, CMHC
demand
2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to
the accuracy thereof.
Page 9
Montreal
Capital Markets Insight Q2 2017
Page 10
Montreal
Capital Markets Insight Q2 2017
1.2%
Core retail properties remain highly Canada
sought after especially those with 6.2%
development or upside potential Singapore
Sweden
92.6%
Industrial
Demand for new generation investment property Industrial 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
continues to outstrip supply in the industrial Vacancy Rate (%) 5.8% 5.5% 6.0%
market with investors looking to older generation Net Asking Rent (p.s.f.) $5.77 $5.87 $5.91
assets on shorter leases to satisfy demand Net Absorption (s.f.) 874,913 2,169,329 (740,862)
There remains limited speculative development New Supply (s.f.) 1,231,519 0 364,812
despite vacancy rates continuing to fall to new Under Construction (s.f.) 315,000 1,571,280 1,219,125
lows with tenants often choosing to occupy more 5.75%- 5.75%- 5.50%-
space with lower clear heights rather than invest Class A Cap Rate (%)
6.25% 6.25% 6.25%
in higher clear height facilities
The market continues to be dominated by users
buying vacant properties for occupancy
2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to
the accuracy thereof.
Page 12
Montreal
Q2 2017
Capital Markets Insight
Multifamily
We note the surplus of demand in the market Multifamily 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
amid a lack of good quality product. Even though
Overall Vacancy Rate (%) 3.9% 3.9% 3.9%
cap rates remain compressed and are expected
4.25%- 4.25%- 4.25%-
to compress further, any high quality product is High Rise A Cap Rate (%)
4.75% 4.75% 4.75%
being heavily bid on 4.50%- 4.50%- 4.50%-
Low Rise A Cap Rate (%)
Montreals multifamily market has been, for the 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%
most part, dominated by private investor activity.
We have begun to see significant purpose built
development and there is considerable
difference between rental rates of old stock
multi-family and new condo style apartment
buildings
We foresee the secondary rental market to be
the biggest threat to traditional multifamily
building owners downtown as they are
competing against new-built towers with
amenities at competitive pricing
Retail
Core properties remain highly sought after,
especially those with development or upside Retail 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
potential. We note the decrease in investor 5.00%- 5.25%- 5.25%-
interest in high street retail as vacancy on even Regional Cap Rate (%)
6.00% 5.75% 5.75%
the most important high streets has started to 6.00%- 5.75%- 5.75%-
creep up and investors seem to be less bullish Power Center Cap Rate (%)
6.75% 6.75% 6.75%
on fashion retailers 5.25%- 5.25%- 5.25%-
Anchored Strip Cap Rate (%)
Local buyers continue to express high interest 6.00% 6.00% 6.00%
4.50%- 4.50%- 4.50%-
for retail properties on the back of low interest Urban Streetfront Cap Rate (%)
5.00% 5.00% 5.00%
rates and we expect cap rates to continue to
compress ahead
Many retailers are embracing omni-channel
sales strategies to better compete with online
retailers as well as centralizing, downsizing, and
consolidating retail space into single marquis
locations
Source: JLL Research, CMHC
2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to
the accuracy thereof.
Page 13
Vancouver
Capital Markets Insight Q2 2017
Page 14
Vancouver
Capital Markets Insight Q2 2017
6.7% Canada
United States
93.3%
Office
Downtown Office 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
We note a significant uptick in investment
Total Vacancy Rate (%) 8.3% 7.1% 6.8%
activity from Q1 due to Ivanhoe Cambridges
sale of MetroTower I and II, representing the Class A Net Rent (p.s.f.) $29.45 $29.36 $28.75
largest deal of the quarter. Generally, both Net Absorption (s.f.) 83,219 168,894 81,765
private and institutional foreign investors were New Supply (s.f.) 119,328 0 0
aggressive purchasers for office product in Under Construction (s.f.) 534,196 541,824 666,484
Vancouver 3.75%- 3.75%- 3.75%-
Class A Cap Rate (%)
Cap rates have sustained their historic lows. We 4.25% 4.25% 4.25%
expect this to remain relatively unchanged over
the short term due to lack of quality grade
investment opportunities Suburban Office 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
The only significant office space delivery Total Vacancy Rate (%) 12.3% 12.6% 12.2%
anticipated for 2017 is The Exchange in Class A Net Rent (p.s.f.) $19.04 $19.00 $19.98
Downtown Vancouver. We anticipate the next
Net Absorption (s.f.) 191,006 (10,649) 67,735
wave of construction to be in 2020/2021. The
New Supply (s.f.) 137,602 224,565 280,565
tech industry, followed by engineering, continues
to lead office space demand Under Construction (s.f.) 709,512 507,918 303,000
5.00%- 5.00%- 5.00%-
Class A Cap Rate (%)
5.50% 5.50% 5.50%
Industrial
High net worth/private investors were the most
Industrial 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
active buyers this quarter. Institutional investors
have also been active, but more so in their Vacancy Rate (%) 2.0% 2.2% 2.3%
willingness to bid and not necessarily in Net Asking Rent (p.s.f.) $9.80 $9.85 $9.87
succeeding with the acquisition Net Absorption (s.f.) 116,498 897,414 151,353
The overall vacancy rate is expected to remain New Supply (s.f.) 1,231,519 741,199 360,363
low in Metro Vancouver as a strong provincial Under Construction (s.f.) 4,621,568 7,115,078 4,172,017
economy continues to generate robust demand 4.50%- 4.25%- 4.25%-
Class A Cap Rate (%)
for warehouse space 5.00% 4.75% 4.75%
Cap rates have sustained their historic lows. We
expect supply to remain scarce in the short term
despite the 4.1M s.f. currently under
construction, due to strong demand and
municipal permit delays. This is especially true
for large-scale warehouse space, which has
faced a consistent lack of supply over the past Source: JLL Research
few quarters
2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to
the accuracy thereof.
Page 16
Vancouver
Q2 2017
Capital Markets Insight
Multifamily
Record low vacancy rates in chosen suburban Multifamily 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
markets can be attributed to younger or lower
Overall Vacancy Rate (%) 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
income individuals who are moving from core
2.00%- 2.00%- 2.00%-
centers to avoid paying high rental rates High Rise A Cap Rate (%)
3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
We notice that cap rates have begun to stabilize 2.50%- 2.50%- 2.50%-
Low Rise A Cap Rate (%)
in major urban centers and we continue to see 3.25% 3.25% 3.25%
them compress in suburban areas where rental
rates have seen substantial growth, such as
New Westminster
The multifamily sector is yet to see foreign
investment from Asia come in. While there have
been a number of inquiries, there hasnt been a
transaction involving foreign capital to date in
2017
Retail
Cap rates compressed further from Q1 levels, Retail 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
sustaining the asset class historically low levels; 3.50%- 3.50%- 3.50%-
we note, however, that the rate spread between Regional Cap Rate (%)
4.50% 4.50% 4.50%
specific retail types is relatively large as 4.50%- 4.50%- 4.50%-
investment opportunities for high quality retail Power Center Cap Rate (%)
5.50% 5.50% 5.50%
remains scarce 4.00%- 4.00%- 4.00%-
Anchored Strip Cap Rate (%)
New standalone construction is restrained as 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%
much of the anticipated supply coming to market 3.50%- 3.50%- 3.50%-
Urban Streetfront Cap Rate (%)
4.50% 4.50% 4.50%
are part of redevelopment efforts for the retail
components of mixed-use projects, which
continues to be a popular trend in Vancouver
Though strong demand across all buyer profiles
held through the second quarter, the most active
buyers were private investors. The largest retail
transaction of the quarter was the sale of
Sevenoaks Shopping Centre in Central Source: JLL Research, CMHC
Abbotsford
2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to
the accuracy thereof.
Page 17
Calgary
Capital Markets Insight Q2 2017
Page 18
Calgary
Capital Markets Insight Q2 2017
REIT/REOC
35.2%
Canada
100.0%
Office
Downtown Office 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
Institutional investment activity in the second
Total Vacancy Rate (%) 21.1% 21.2% 21.7%
quarter of 2017 has slowed. The demand from
investors continues to be strong, however, Class A Net Rent (p.s.f.) $16.70 $15.36 $15.42
owners continue to be discouraged by perceived Net Absorption (s.f.) (891,328) (76,919) (199,010)
discounted valuations New Supply (s.f.) 602,115 0 522,525
Two transactions closed in the quarter both Under Construction (s.f.) 2,361,752 2,403,250 1,838,900
sold by public companies to private buyers. This 5.50%- 5.50%- 5.50%-
Class A Cap Rate (%)
is a trend that is expected to last for the 6.00% 6.00% 6.00%
remaining of the year
The market continues to discuss re-purposing
office assets the most popular options being Suburban Office 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
multi-family, hotel and senior housing Total Vacancy Rate (%) 20.5% 18.7% 18.6%
Class A Net Rent (p.s.f.) $16.51 $15.06 $16.42
Net Absorption (s.f.) (370,996) (152,027) 185,939
New Supply (s.f.) 36,269 0 0
Under Construction (s.f.) 480,130 692,135 1,667,402
6.25%- 6.25%- 6.25%-
Class A Cap Rate (%)
6.75% 6.75% 6.75%
Industrial
2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to
the accuracy thereof.
Page 20
Calgary
Q2 2017
Capital Markets Insight
Multifamily
There continues to be a lack of multifamily Multifamily 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
product available for purchase in Calgary as
Overall Vacancy Rate (%) 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%
vendors are keeping a watchful eye on interest
4.50%- 4.50% 4.50%
rates, oil prices, and the overall Alberta economy High Rise A Cap Rate (%)
5.50% 5.50% 5.25%
While the number of multifamily transactions in 5.00%- 5.00% 5.00%
Low Rise A Cap Rate (%)
1H2017 in the Calgary market has increased in 5.75% 5.75% 5.75%
comparison to 1H2016, the total investment
volume in dollar terms is lower in the same
period, with the difference largely being in the
value of high-rise apartment sales
Private investors are actively on the lookout for
value-add opportunities while institutional buyers
are seeking core properties with renewed vigor.
The current buyer profile have been all domestic
investors although new investors are beginning
to enter the Calgary market
Retail
There is a rise in consumer optimism in the
Retail 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
region and we expect heavy interest in urban
street front retail properties in the days ahead. 4.75%- 4.75%- 4.75%-
Regional Cap Rate (%)
6.00% 5.75% 5.75%
Most of the construction activity in the future will
5.50%- 5.50%- 5.50%-
comprise of neighborhood centers and urban Power Center Cap Rate (%)
6.00% 6.00% 6.00%
mixed-use development 5.00%- 5.00%- 5.00%-
Anchored Strip Cap Rate (%)
There is still a strong interest from institutional 6.00% 6.00% 6.00%
and private investors amid a lack of supply of 5.75%- 5.50%- 5.50%-
Urban Streetfront Cap Rate (%)
trophy assets and grocery anchored/key location 6.25% 6.00% 6.00%
product
We note the upcoming availability of large
spaces in Calgarys North Hill Centre,
Southcentre Mall and the Brentwood Village
Shopping Centre, post Sears exit. Opportunities
exist for Landlords to re-establish market rental
rates with new smaller format tenancies Source: JLL Research, CMHC
2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to
the accuracy thereof.
Page 21
Edmonton
Capital Markets Insight Q2 2017
Page 22
Edmonton
Capital Markets Insight Q2 2017
80.4%
Canada
100.0%
Office
Downtown Office 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
Dream Office REITs sales of their Edmonton Total Vacancy Rate (%) 17.2% 16.9% 18.2%
Office assets has been the most noteworthy Class A Net Rent (p.s.f.) $20.39 $20.65 $20.29
transaction year to date. The transaction has Net Absorption (s.f.) 106,670 47,230 (93,346)
shown a clear delineation of pricing between New Supply (s.f.) 1,122,618 0 0
their class A assets their class B and C assets.
Under Construction (s.f.) 578,000 578,000 578,000
We expect the transaction to act as a benchmark
6.25%- 6.25%- 6.25%-
for deals in the near future Class A Cap Rate (%)
7.00% 7.00% 7.00%
The suburban office market continues to perform
reasonably well and has shown resilience. Most
of the transaction activity is being driven by
Suburban Office 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
private investors
Total Vacancy Rate (%) 11.4% 12.6% 14.4%
Class A Net Rent (p.s.f.) $17.76 $17.60 $17.60
Net Absorption (s.f.) (69,305) (72,405) (61,168)
New Supply (s.f.) 67,680 0 0
Under Construction (s.f.) 224,306 106,000 185,058
6.50%- 6.50%- 6.50%-
Class A Cap Rate (%)
7.50% 7.50% 7.50%
Industrial
We note a steadily increasing spread currently
Industrial 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
between class A and B industrial product with
abundant institutional interest in the former and Vacancy Rate (%) 4.6% 4.9% 5.3%
a lack of product offering Net Asking Rent (p.s.f.) $9.89 $10.03 $9.74
Investment volumes for class B assets are being Net Absorption (s.f.) 441,070 5,360 786,073
largely driven by private equity and private New Supply (s.f.) 140,720 431,251 0
investors
Under Construction (s.f.) 431,251 66,223 66,223
With renewed pipeline activity on the horizon,
5.25%- 5.25%- 5.25%-
heavier industrial areas have begun to generate Class A Cap Rate (%)
6.00% 6.00% 6.00%
investor interest along with associated industries
in the supply chain, thereby driving demand for
small to mid-bay product. There is an increase in
bidding activity for such product among private
investors looking for value-add opportunities
2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to
the accuracy thereof.
Page 24
Edmonton
Q2 2017
Capital Markets Insight
Multifamily
We note that vendor and purchaser pricing Multifamily 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
expectations have largely yet to align with higher Overall Vacancy Rate (%) 7.1% 7.1% 7.1%
vacancies and lower rents, which the market is 4.25%- 4.25%- 4.25%-
High Rise A Cap Rate (%)
currently experiencing. A possible bump in 5.25% 5.25% 5.25%
interest rates around the end of the year will 5.50%- 5.50%- 5.50%-
Low Rise A Cap Rate (%)
6.50% 6.50% 6.50%
further widen the gap
There is a considerable lack of supply of high-
rise concrete product in the City of Edmonton
and the opportunity to acquire such product is
rarely available. We expect to see a renewed
interest in core type product, however, at lower
prices than seen in the past
We foresee that the largest demand for
multifamily product will continue to be in the
high-rise concrete sector of the market with
buyers looking to acquire this product under a
reposition or value-add strategy
Retail
Retail 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
There is a rising interest in neighborhood and 4.75%- 4.75%- 4.75%-
Regional Cap Rate (%)
anchored strip retail assets among investors as 6.00% 5.75% 5.75%
retail spending increases and the oil-industry 5.50%- 5.50%- 5.50%-
Power Center Cap Rate (%)
begins to stabilize 6.00% 6.00% 6.00%
5.00%- 5.25%- 5.25%-
Quality assets are still in demand across all Anchored Strip Cap Rate (%)
6.00% 6.00% 6.00%
product types. Institutional investors will need to 5.75%- 5.50%- 5.50%-
continue to focus on a customized development Urban Streetfront Cap Rate (%)
6.25% 6.00% 6.00%
solution to secure retail assets
We note the upcoming availability of large
spaces in the West Edmonton Mall, Kingsway
Mall and Southgate Centre, post Sears exit.
Opportunities exist for landlords to re-establish
market rental rates with new smaller format
tenancies
Source: JLL Research, CMHC
2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to
the accuracy thereof.
Page 25
About JLL
JLL (NYSE: JLL) is a professional services and investment management firm offering specialized real estate services to
clients seeking increased value by owning, occupying and investing in real estate. A Fortune 500 company with annual fee
revenue of $4.7 billion and gross revenue of $5.4 billion, JLL has more than 230 corporate offices, operates in 80 countries
and has a global workforce of approximately 58,000. On behalf of its clients, the firm provides management and real estate
outsourcing services for a property portfolio of 3.4 billion square feet, or 316 million square meters, and completed $118
billion in sales, acquisitions and finance transactions in 2014. Its investment management business, LaSalle Investment
Management, has $55.3 billion of real estate assets under management. JLL is the brand name, and a registered
trademark, of Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated. For further information, visit www.jll.com.
Office locations:
TORONTO TORONTO NORTH MISSISSAUGA MONTRAL
22 Adelaide Street West, Suite 251 Consumers Road, Suite 110 Matheson Blvd W, Suite 1, Place Ville Marie, Suite
2600 900 107 3838
Toronto, ON M5H 4E3 Toronto, ON M2J 4R3 Mississauga, ON L5R 4G7 Montral, QC H3B 4M6
Tel: +1 416 304 6000 Tel: +1 674 728 0457 Tel +1 905 502 6116 Tel +1 514 849 8849
Fax: +1 416 304 6001 Fax: +1 674 642 0195 Fax +1 905 502 5466 Fax +1 514 849 6919
Page 26