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It reflects the degree to which the changes in interest rates, exchange rates, commodity
prices, and equity prices can affect earnings and hence bank’s capital. Strong bank, but a tad
too expensive
Event
� We downgrade HDFC Bank to Neutral from Outperform, purely on valuations, as the
stock has reached our target price. 4Q FY3/09 PAT was 7% below our estimates (7% above
Bloomberg consensus), with no real scares. Our target price remains unchanged at Rs1,
106.00.
Impact
� Loan growth remains sluggish, NIM down. The bank’s loan book was flat QoQ (largely
in line with our forecasts). Management remains cautious and is unwilling to show excessive
aggression in an uncertain environment. The caution manifests itself in the government bond
holdings of 3% beyond the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) requirement of 24%. NIM was
down 10bp QoQ, mainly from falling loan yields.
� Delivering on fee growth, further boosted by treasury. Fee growth was up a robust 11%
QoQ led by both the core corporate fees as well as improved retail fees as the branch
network is steadily improving productivity. Treasury income was a big kicker, with bond
profits of Rs2.4bn accounting for 27% of PBT. There appears to have been some accelerated
loan loss provisions to dampen the impact.
� Asset quality – no significant worsening. Loan loss provisions jumped QoQ, while gross
NPL creation remained stable, QoQ. We think the overall asset quality position remains
relatively stable. The riskier nature of the bank’s
Book (partially reflected in its high NIMs) does imply that credit costs will remain high, but
we do not think it’s a matter of concern. Loan losses/average loans jumped 63bps QoQ to
2.43%.
Earnings and target price revision
� No change to earnings. Downgrade to Neutral on valuations. Our target price remains
unchanged at Rs1, 106.00.
Price catalyst
� 12month price target: Rs1, 106.00 based on a Gordon growth methodology.
� Catalyst: Easing of funding costs should benefit NIM in 1H FY3/10E
Action and recommendation
� The results were largely in line and we do not see any serious concerns. The stock is
trading at 2.8x PBV, which appears a bit high given the uncertain economic outlook. We
suggest investors take profits for the short term. Longterm investors should wait for better
opportunities to enter – our view is this remains India’s best bank; our longterm outlook for
the bank remains strong.
� The longterm value creation from a potential merger with its parent, HDFC Ltd, as
highlighted in our note “HDFC group: Potential merger has strong multiyear benefits”, 31
March 2009, is probably not captured in these valuations. However, the possibility of that
event occurring is still not clear, and so that upside is unlikely to play out in the short term.
Analysis
� Loan growth slows down. Loan growth slowed down sequentially (flat QoQ), while
being up
56% YoY. Growth was primarily driven by retail loans.
⇒ While there was an absence of the usual fourth quarter selldowns, it was impacted by
contraction in loans to oil marketing companies, as the fall in international oil prices
improved cash flows and reduced the need for such loans (mainly short term in nature).
Loan growth was also slowed by the contraction in the erstwhile CBOP (delisted) loan book
− down to ~Rs100bn from Rs161bn at the start of FY3/09.
⇒ The bank also purchased Rs40bn worth of loans from HDFC primarily to satisfy its
priority sector lending requirements. Management has clarified that this was an
opportunistic purchase and not indicative of a change in policy.
Margins were down 10bps sequentially. The bank benefited from a smart 480bp rise in
demand deposit ratio driving a decline in cost of funds. This was, however, offset by
downward reprising of certain high yield loans. While margins could come under pressure
as management continues to focus on corporate loans, this should be offset somewhat by an
attendant fall in credit costs.
� Boost from treasury and forex income. Non interest income was up 103%YoY, boosted
by strong bond profits and forex revenues.
⇒ Bond profits at Rs2.4bn were 27% of pretax profits and were booked in the early part of
the quarter before the bond yields moved up.
⇒ Forex income was up 153%YoY. About 80% of this income is due to customer flows and
we think the strong growth is partly explained by the increasing focus on corporate lending.
The increase in forex income has more than offset the decline in the derivative income for
the bank.
As on 15th August, 2009 Beta of HDFC Bank is 1.94. Also Beta of banking industry is
almost always greater than 1. If market goes up then banking sector prices also goes up.
Interpretation of BETA: It describes how the expected return of a stock or portfolio is
correlated to the return of the financial market as a whole. A positive beta means that the
asset generally follows the market. Beta of 1.27 means that the shares of ICICI Bank are 1.27
times correlated to the financial market as a whole.