1ST INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON NATURAL

HAZARDS AND DISASTER MANAGEMENT

June 1-3, 2017 - Osaka, Japan
Theme: Significance of Early warning systems and risk management strategies
THE GEOPHYSICAL PRECURSORS OF EARTHQUAKES:
EMISSIONS OF RADON-222 AND IONIZING RADIATION IN IMMINENT EARTHQUAKES.
THE PROPOSAL OF A SEISMIC WARNING NETWORK FOR ECUADOR
Gioacchino Giuliani
President of the G. Giuliani Foundation
- L'Aquila (Italy) -

Gualtiero A.N. Valeri

President of Montevenda Engineering International Association
- Lugano (Switzerland) -
Director of the Department of Chemistry at Santa Rita University in Rome (Italy)

The predictability of earthquakes is now object of contrasting opinions, for strictly scientific problems
type (the difficulty to correlate closely certain precursors to the occurrence of the phenomenon in a certain
interval of time, space and intensity) and social (the menagement of the reactions of the population in face of
an alert which is difficult predict the duration and the real level of risk).

However, new knowledge in the fields of nuclear physics, geophysics and geochemistry, together with
the availability of new technologies that make it possible to accurately detect certain phenomena, have
opened new perspectives to the opportunity to know, with sufficient precision, if or not will be an imminent
earthquake, the epicentral area and its intensity.

In the specific case of the Ecuadorian territory, always affected by seismic and volcanic phenomena,
already today, for occurrences of volcanic eruptions and tsunamis, is operating an efficient system of
managing these risks.

With the recent crisis of the Cotopaxi volcano (started in spring 2015 and still in progress), have been
implemented, in areas within a distance of some thirty kilometers, a range of measures that allow evacuation
or safe-keeping of the population directly affected (between 100,000 and 200,000 people, between the
provinces of Cotopaxi, Pichincha, Napo and Tungurahua), especially from the risk of lahar descent. In the
event of this crisis, infrastructures have also been adapted to allow them to evacuate 30,000 to 40,000 people
in thirty minutes (providing safe places to admit it) and to resist - as far as possible at effects of a lahar
descent from Cotopaxi. On the same occasion, the population was instructed to do in case of evacuation, of
danger for volcanic gas, of interruption of the road, electrical and telephone network.

Gioacchino Giuliani, Gualtiero A.N. Valeri The geophysical precursors of Earthquakes: Emissions of Radon-222 and ionizing radiation in imminent
earthquakes. The proposal of a seismic warning network for Ecuador, L'Aquila / Quito, May 28th, 2017

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 Similarly, for the coastal towns are planning in a few minutes an evacuation in case of tsunami danger;
this event has been repeated several times, lately, for the earthquakes that have affected the territories
bordering the Pacific Ocean.

The management of a seismic alert is certainly more complex, because of the difficulty of identifying
precisely the areas that could be affected, and for the very short times of evolution of the phenomenon; but
based on the experiences gained, is possible to take measures that allow a minor Impact on populations of an
earthquake. Among these, the most viable ones are - by knowing in advance that an earthquake of some
intensity may occur - suspending activities that involve the concentration of people in risky buildings and the
provision of temporary housing. (As already experienced in Italy during the earthquake of 2009).

From the viewpoint of seismology, there are two main systems in Ecuador that can give origin to
earthquakes of medium or large intensity in populated areas.

The first, and most important, is the subduction of the Nazca Plate under the South American Plate,
which began in the early Miocene (convergence direction N83, with a motion of 56 mm/year), complicated
by the presence of two major topographic elements: the Carnegie ridge and the Grijalva ridge,.

Overall, NE South America's subduction zone is the most active convergence zone in the world, with
eight event of magnitude largest of 7.0 in the twentieth century, including five of which concerned the Nazca
Plate at north of the Grijalva ridge.

The magnitude 8.8 event of 1906, involving Ecuador and Colombia, was one of the ten most powerful
events recorded by seismometers in the world.

Another highly seismic zone in Ecuador, though with much more superficial and less intense
phenomena than those of the Ecuadorian Coast, is the North-Andean Block (NAB) and the faulty system
surrounding the Inter Andean Depression.

The Eastern Region of Ecuador (Amazonia) is less susceptible to seismic phenomena, they are much
more mild, and still very poorly populated (3% of the total population of the Country).

The two most populated areas are the Costa, with 47% of the Country's population, and the Sierra (the
mountainous region) with 49%.

The Galapagos Islands are mostly affected by seismic phenomena associated with volcanic activity, and
they inhabit 1% of the population of the Country.

Today, the Country has 16,600,000 inhabitants, and the data above show that almost all of the
population lives in medium or high seismic areas.

For this reason, the predisposition of a seismic alert network in Ecuador is of great importance, as well
as the collection of data that will allow for a better understanding of the frequency and intensity of the
earthquakes that may affect the different areas, as well as other hazards that can result in the earthquake,
such as the activation of landslides or flooding of rivers or the collapse of infrastructures.

In the Ecuadorian territory, although well monitored for the volcanic activity, is still insufficient
modeling of the territory, with an in-depth knowledge of size, geometry and sliding speed of individual faults

Gioacchino Giuliani, Gualtiero A.N. Valeri The geophysical precursors of Earthquakes: Emissions of Radon-222 and ionizing radiation in imminent
earthquakes. The proposal of a seismic warning network for Ecuador, L'Aquila / Quito, May 28th, 2017

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or faulty systems. This is another important aspect that, when creating a seismic alert network, will need to
deepen it with a parallel research program.

In order to make possible to set up of seismic alert network for the Ecuadorian territory, is being studied
the application of a methodology already underway in Italy, Taiwan and California - with encouraging
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results - using the joint analysis of Rn emission from the earth's crust (by means of special sensors
positioned in the soil, able to selectively detect this isotope), and the emission of ionizing radiation from the
surface of the Earth, already ordinarily detectable by geophysical satellites.

The experimentation of this methodology began in Italy, Abruzzo, for part of the Giuliani Foundation in
2002, and continues now with three sensors installed, and its effectiveness has been demonstrated in the case
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of earthquakes that hit the Center Italy in 2009 and in 2016, when the Rn emissions measured showed
strong increases with an advance of 6 to 24 hours and even days, compared to the earthquake shakes.

In Taiwan, four of these sensors was installed in 2013 and three more in California in 2016. So today
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enough data is available about the correlation between the emission of Rn and the subsequent occurrence
of an earthquake in three different geological and environmental conditions. The creation of a network of
sensors in Ecuador would allow the phenomenon to be further explored in a different condition, in the
territory where there are also 94 volcanoes, of which 8 are considered active.
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The proposed sensors, specifically designed to measure the concentration of Rn, avoiding the
interference of other radioactive species, consist of a plastic scintillator (NE 110 or NE 102) with a volume
of 650 or 1.030 cm3 coupled with two or four photomultipliers (Photonix XP3462b).

This system is contained in a PVC box, which enclosed in a 70 mm thick lead box with internal walls
covered by a reflective Mylar film, with a reflection index of 98%.

The sensors sealed in underground rooms at a depth of 34 m, completely avoiding any air exchange
with the outside, in such a way that there is no interference or for the variation of Radon concentration in
underground chambers, or for the addition of radiant substances coming from the outside with the air.

The lead that constitutes the boxes is very pure (purity 98%, + 2% tin), or in any case with absence of
radioactivity.
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They allow the indirect measure of radon, based on the species formed by the decay of the Rn itself,
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namely Pb and Bi, -emitters at 351 and 609 KeV respectively.

The lead thickness employed reduces the natural background of rays of a factor 6 in the window of interest
ranging from 0.13 to 24 MeV; the electronic measurement system further selects the measuring window between
250 and 700 KeV.

The analogue signal from photomultipliers is converted to digital and sent to an electronic chain to
discriminate the desired signal and thus to a capture system that controls the flow rate every 3600 seconds.

The measurement takes place every 300 seconds and every 3600 seconds, to get the number of photons
counted per hour.

Gioacchino Giuliani, Gualtiero A.N. Valeri The geophysical precursors of Earthquakes: Emissions of Radon-222 and ionizing radiation in imminent
earthquakes. The proposal of a seismic warning network for Ecuador, L'Aquila / Quito, May 28th, 2017

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Anomalies detected through the Rn rate fluctuation variations precede the seismic event between 6
and 28 hours, while an increase in its level can begin to be detected already with a 15 day advance. The
technique, by processing the data with an appropriate algorithm, allows to have an indication of the
magnitude of the event, the epicentral zone with a error of 35 km and the time of the event within a
window of 624 hours, depending on the distance of the gamma sensor from the epicenter area of the
expected event.

The other types of sensors used today for radon measurement are too much influenced by noise from
other radioactive sources in order to provide useful data regarding the increase in emissions of this gas near
seismic events, and specifically:

radiation coming from the impurities of the materials constituting the sensors themselves;

radiation coming from the Earth's surface;

radiation coming from building materials;

radiation coming from gases and radioactive particles contained in the air;

primary and secondary cosmic radiation.

These types of sensors can be categorized into two categories:

passive sensors: they can not give instant measurements of the radon level, and therefore are useless
for our purpose;

active sensors: these, for our purpose, have only partial efficacy; they, in fact, detect the radon level
on the basis of the radiation emitted in its decay, and this is subject to environmental interference by not
allowing reliable measurements.

The performance of the system described were compared with those of the commercial instrument Rad-7 of
Durridge Co.; when the Rad-7 system detects a change of 1 Bq/m 3, the sensor described here shows a variation of 4.86
Bq/m3.

In the Ecuadorian case, five sensors would be located along the Coast's hinterland (distancing them
from 100 to 150 km), at a distance, therefore, sufficiently reduced by the subsidence line between the Nazca
Plate and the South American Plate, and in any case at sufficient distance from active volcanoes (>150 km)
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so that the signals of Rn resulting from deformations of the Earth's crust are not interfered with the
emissions of this gas related to volcanic activity. The sensors will therefore be distributed over a length of
about 600 km.

The five locations so far identified for the installation of the sensors, to be checked more thoroughly
after further investigation, proceeding from north to south, are:

1) Las Peas;

2) Pedernales;

3) Juicuy;

Gioacchino Giuliani, Gualtiero A.N. Valeri The geophysical precursors of Earthquakes: Emissions of Radon-222 and ionizing radiation in imminent
earthquakes. The proposal of a seismic warning network for Ecuador, L'Aquila / Quito, May 28th, 2017

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 4) Campo Alegre;

5) Catans.

The difference between the intensity of the signal coming from the various sensors in a certain instant,
allows a sort of triangulation in the area in which they are producing the preconditions to an earthquake.

Since sensors can capture the radon level variation on phenomena that are also producing 150 km or so,
this will allow a good tracking of what is happening in the subsidence line between the Nazca Plate and the
South American Plate, but also phenomena that are evolving in the area of the Inter-Depression. Between the
Ecuadorian Coast and the Interandine Depression we have an average distance of 180 km.

They would also be located at a distance of 1,000 to 1,500 km from the meeting lines of two other
plates, the Cocos Plate and the Pacific Plate, and we can expect to collect data about the phenomena that are
being produced along these lines.

The signals from these sensors would be collected and analyzed by a dedicated control center, and
compared with satellite data, from which we can obtain more information, eg. the radiation coming from the
Earth's surface, or its movements, in connection with the Ecuadorian National Geophysical Observatory.

The primary objective is to try to find out, based on these data, the possibility that there is an imminent
seismic risk in a certain area of the Ecuadorian territory some days in advance, and, at the same time,
refining the methodology also thanks to the geophysical network already operational on the territory and data
known on historical seismicity.

In addition to the practical - obvious - usefulness of the predisposition of this network of seismic sensor
in a country where we have an average frequency of a highly destructive earthquake every 11 years, we are
faced with the case, as we have said, of a territory with particular geological features.

It is therefore expected that it is possible to study the response of the proposed method in an area
affected by continuous and intense movements of the Earth's crust, at the same time by intense volcanic
activity, and where careful monitoring of other parameters is already underway, such as accelerometric and
soil deformation, which can be compared to the new parameter described here, measured, for the first time,
in a reliable way for the specific case of its importance as a seismic precursor.

L'Aquila / Quito, May 28 t h , 2017 Prof. Gioacchino Giuliani

e-mail: giuliani.giampaolo4@gmail.com
Prof. Gualtiero A.N. Valeri
e-mail: valeri@montevenda.net

Gioacchino Giuliani, Gualtiero A.N. Valeri The geophysical precursors of Earthquakes: Emissions of Radon-222 and ionizing radiation in imminent
earthquakes. The proposal of a seismic warning network for Ecuador, L'Aquila / Quito, May 28th, 2017

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