Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
0
1 tenv ftenv
Mf; tenv Jtdt 5
t0 2t0
A 1( )
T
To determine the flux J(t) consistent with each isotopic event, I
7 calculate the value of f that solves differential equations for the evo-
B
6 lution of d1(t), M(t), and J(t) given the initial values d1 0 d*1, J(0) = 0,
5
and M(0) = 0 and the final value d1 tenv d*1 Dr. The values of d*1, Dr,
and tenv are obtained for each event from the database. The solution of
Number
Table 1. Event names, event abbreviations, and data used to construct Figs. 2 and 3. Values of d1 and Dr are given in per mil () and derive from the
formula d1 = 1000 (R Rstd)/Rstd, where abundance ratios R = 13C/12C are obtained from samples of inorganic (carbonate) carbon and Rstd is a standard ratio.
The variables Dr, tenv, f, and M are defined in the text. In Fig. 2, the six Eocene and four Miocene events are denoted by Eo and Mio, respectively.
Event name Abbreviation Date[Ma] d1(0) d1(tenv) Dr tenv[My] f M
Cambrian Spice Spice 497.00 4.30 1.30 3.00 1.000 0.12 0.443
Silurian Mulde Mul 428.20 4.00 1.00 3.00 0.260 0.19 0.181
Silurian Lau Lau 423.50 7.00 1.00 6.00 0.500 0.30 0.538
Early late Paleocene ELPE 58.90 3.48 3.07 0.42 0.039 0.11 0.015
Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum PETM 55.50 1.90 0.80 2.70 0.083 0.41 0.121
Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 ETM2 53.70 1.40 0.27 1.12 0.045 0.28 0.045
Eocene Thermal Maximum 3 ETM3 52.50 0.20 0.60 0.80 0.037 0.24 0.032
Eocene-Oligocene boundary Oi1 33.50 1.60 1.00 0.60 0.430 0.03 0.047
Miocene Climatic Optimum 1 MCO1 16.90 1.94 1.44 0.50 0.028 0.18 0.018
Miocene Climatic Optimum 2 MCO2 16.40 1.80 1.04 0.76 0.022 0.35 0.028
Miocene Climatic Optimum 3 MCO3 16.00 2.33 1.67 0.66 0.032 0.21 0.024
Miocene Climatic Optimum 4 MCO4 15.60 2.17 1.57 0.60 0.029 0.21 0.022
Last Glacial MaximumtoHolocene LGMH 0.02 0.11 0.45 0.34 0.018 0.20 0.013
did: Fig. 3A shows that the upper envelope of event size M decreases The time scale of critical events appears to have declined since the
with time. To understand this evolution, note that Eq. 5 predicts that early Triassic (~250 Ma) by about one order of magnitude, to about 20
changes in the size of critical events, for which f = fc, derive directly to 30 ky since the Miocene (~16 Ma). The smaller time scale is similar
from changes in tenv. Figure 3B shows that this time scalewhich to the ~10-ky time scale of the modern oceans homeostatic response
should be roughly equivalent to the damping timedecreases toward to a change in pH (2225). The time scales decrease since the Triassic
the present. is consistent with the evolutionary expansion of the modern biological
M A
O 10
0
L
1
10
Mass extinction
2
Other
10
6
10
B
I
A 10
5
E year
iable after the introduction of the deep-sea carbonate sink (26, 27, 30, 33).
M
They also identify the crossover time scale tx with the homeostat time
scale, implying tx ~ 10 ky (2225) in modern oceans.
B
With these results in hand, the modern critical size Mc of an asymp-
totically fast perturbation of the marine carbon cycle now follows. First,
D insertion of M(fc, tenv) from Eq. 5 into Eq. 2 provides the critical rate
rc = fc/2t0. Equation 3 then predicts
Fig. 2. Depictions of the size and time scale of carbon isotopic events. (A) Mag-
nitude of the isotopic shift Dr = d1(tenv) d1(0) as a function of its duration of time,
fc tx
tenv. (B) Dimensionless mass perturbation M = |Dm|/m* as a function of the di- Mc 6
mensionless time scale fctenv/2t0 for each of the events depicted in (A). The 2t0
straight (identity) line denotes the equality predicted by Eq. 5 when f = fc =
0.23 0.07. Event abbreviations are defined in Table 1. Error bars (Materials 0:0082 0:0041 7
and Methods) are guides for interpretation.
where, as a guide, a total uncertainty of 50% is assumed. The mod-
ern oceans contain about 38,000 Pg C; the critical dimensional mass
pump beginning approximately 220 Ma (26, 27), corresponding to the is therefore about 310 155 Pg C.
earliest observations of coccolithophores and associated calcareous phy- From 1850 to the present, human activities have resulted in the
toplankton in the fossil record (28, 29). As the biological pump addition of about 155 25 Pg C to the oceans (34). Projections for
strengthened, the export of precipitated calcium carbonate from surface further carbon uptake depend strongly on the trajectory of fossil fuel
waters to deep ocean sediments increased, leading to growth of the deep- emissions and land use, among other factors (34, 35). Figure 4 com-
sea sedimentary carbonate reservoir (26, 27, 30). When pH decreases in pares the critical mass to the present accumulation and four projec-
modern oceans, dissolution of sedimentary carbonate minerals is one of tions to 2100 obtained from coupled climatecarbon cycle models
the principal processes via which these disturbances are damped (31, 32). (34). The strictest emission scenario results in oceanic carbon uptake
Because this mechanism strengthened over the last 220 My, critical per- whose mean falls just below the critical mass; at the other extreme,
turbations of the marine carbon cycle would have become shorter in time the mean model uptake is about 74% greater than critical. Although the
and smaller in magnitude, but not necessarily less dangerous, because uncertainty of each prediction in Fig. 4 is considerable, all scenarios
their maximum flux would have remained fc. These observations are for cumulative uptake at the centurys end either exceed or are com-
each consistent with the suggestion that the carbon cycle became less var- mensurate with the threshold for catastrophic change.
600 the initial disturbance. System-wide instability may then follow. Because
If these three mass extinction events and the other four events with poor 260 ky. As shown by Cramer et al. (66), the Gotland excursion correlates
temporal constraints (Cambrian Spice, Tournaisian, mid-Capitanian, well with observations in the West Midlands, England, with the West
and Albian-Cenomanian) are removed from the database, the trends Midlands excursion having a magnitude of about 4 and the Gotland
in Figs. 2 and 3 remain intact and no new trends appear. excursion about 2, a range that is consistent with other observations
Nevertheless, the unknown errors in the observations render quan- (65, 66). I therefore estimated the magnitude to be 3 1.
titative error analysis infeasible. The representative error bars for Dr, M, Silurian Lau event, ~423 Ma
and tenv in Figs. 2 and 3 are instead guides for interpretation. A significant global positive carbon isotopic excursion known as the
The following list proceeds from the oldest to the youngest event. Lau Event occurs in the Ludlow Epoch of the Silurian (65, 6772).
Ediacaran-Cambrian boundary, ~541 Ma The excursion typically peaks at 6 to 8 [for example, Lehnert et al.
The magnitude and duration of this negative isotopic excursion derive (71)], though values as small as 3 to 4 and as high as 10 to 11
from the Oman carbon isotope data of Amthor et al. (45) and the U-Pb have been observed in North America (68) and Sweden (70), respective-
geochronology of Bowring et al. (46). Other data from Morocco, Siberia, ly. Given that uncertainty, I adopted a conservative mean peak value of
Mongolia, and China (47, 48) suggest global consistency. The absence of 7. The negative downswing after the peak typically bottoms out at
the Ediacaran biota in the Cambrian has led to the suggestion that the about 1, resulting in a typical total negative shift of about 6.
Ediacaran biota vanished by mass extinction at the end of the Ediacaran, Cramer et al. (72) have recently bracketed the duration of the excursion
possibly related to the environmental event signaled by this excursion by U-Pb geochronology, finding that it must be less than about 1.17 My.
(45, 4952). However, gradual extinction coupled with permanent Following their analysis, I took the upswing and downswing to be
negative isotopic shift occurs in a negative excursion that begins ap- Program (ODP) Site 1050 at Blake Nose, western North Atlantic, as
proximately 251.22 Ma (83) in the mid-Smithian and declines approx- presented by Ando et al. (108). When plotted using the time scale of
imately 3.5 over approximately 250 ky. Huber et al. (109), the ODP data show an unambiguous 0.7 negative
Triassic-Jurassic boundary, ~201 Ma excursion across the boundary over approximately 110 ky.
One of the Big Five extinctions, the end-Triassic event is temporally Mid-Cenomanian event, ~95.9 Ma
associated with the emplacement of the Central Atlantic magmatic The mid-Cenomanian positive carbon isotopic excursion has been
province (40). Geochemically, the most well-studied section is at St. clearly observed in European sections (107), the North Atlantic (110),
Audries Bay in southwest England, where the extinction interval coin- western North America (111), and elsewhere. My analysis follows from
cides with a rapid fall and subsequent rise of the isotopic composition of the correlation of the English Chalk reference carbonate curve (107)
organic matter (84) that lasts 20 to 40 ky according to astrochronology to carbon isotopic data from the Cretaceous Western Interior Seaway of
(85). This so-called initial excursion in organic carbon is widely observed North America (111, 112). I used the time scale of Eldrett et al. (112),
(86). However, its significance for understanding the evolution of marine which is based on a combination of astrochronology and U-Pb geo-
dissolved inorganic carbon is unclear (86, 87), partly because it may be chronology. As indicated in figure 11 of Eldrett et al. (112), the negative
associated with observed changes in flora (87)and therefore variations swing of the excursion begins at about 96.5 Ma, followed by a decline of
in the organic matter itselfand partly because inorganic isotopic com- about 0.85 over roughly 138 ky.
positions need not track organic isotopic compositions (43). There are Cenomanian-Turonian boundary event, ~94.2 Ma
unfortunately few well-resolved isotopic studies of carbonate carbon as- Otherwise known as oceanic anoxic event 2, the positive isotopic
from the concentration of 3He (118, 119). The mean of the resulting negative isotopic excursion, which I designated Miocene Climatic Op-
four estimates [corresponding to the cumulative time between the onset timum 1, that has also been identified in lower-resolution records from
of the excursion and the termination of its core as summarized in three other sites, elsewhere in the Pacific and in the Southern Ocean
table 1 of Murphy et al. (119)] is 83 23 ky. I obtained the magnitude (127). I obtained the magnitude (0.5) and time scale (28 ky) from
of the isotopic excursion, 2.7 1.1, from the mean of 33 published the bulk carbonate record. The event is synchronous with shoaling of
analyses of bulk Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum carbonates re- the carbonate compensation depth (CCD).
viewed by McInerney and Wing (11). The initial value of the excursion Miocene Climatic Optimum 2, ~16.4 Ma
was obtained similarly (11). Although these averages lack prejudice, Holbourn et al. (127) identified three other Miocene Climatic Opti-
they may nevertheless underestimate the excursions size (120) and mum negative excursions, which I designated Miocene Climatic Op-
overestimate its time scale (121). timum 2 to Miocene Climatic Optimum 4, during which d1 decreases
Eocene Thermal Maximum 2, ~53.7 Ma sharply and the CCD appears to shoal. Using the same high-resolution
The Eocene is punctuated by several hyperthermal events, each repre- record as for Miocene Climatic Optimum 1, I found that Miocene
sented by a negative excursion in the isotopic composition of carbonate Climatic Optimum 2 has a time scale of 22 ky and a magnitude of
carbon and dissolution of deep-sea marine carbonates. Eocene Thermal 0.76.
Maximum 2, one such event, follows the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Miocene Climatic Optimum 3, ~16.0 Ma
Maximum (also known as Eocene Thermal Maximum 1) by roughly See Miocene Climatic Optimum 2. For Miocene Climatic Optimum 3, I
2 My. My estimate of the magnitude of Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 found a time scale of 32 ky and a magnitude of 0.66. This event also
where j*i , d*i , and b*2 represent unperturbed quantities that satisfy the The normalized mass perturbation evolves as
steady-state relation
dM
J=t0 19
0 j*i d*i d*1 b*2 e 10 dt
dd1
m j*i d1 d*1 ji di d1 b2 e 11 dJ
dt f=tenv 20
dt
Here, di is set to the average isotopic composition of Phanerozoic or-
ganic carbon (27.8 (21)]. Consequently, the terms in Eq. 11 pro- The differential equations 18 to 20 describe changes in the isotopic
portional toji andb2 are practically indistinguishable so that a positive composition of marine inorganic carbon in response to the normalized
perturbation of the input flux is equivalent to a negative perturbation of flux J(t). The first term in parentheses in Eq. 18 encodes the tendency of
the burial flux. I therefore set b2 0 and reinterpreted ji as representa- d1 to relax back to the initial value d*1, and the second term describes the
M0 0 22
mt m* Dmt 12
J0 0 23
where, by definition,
d1 tenv d*1 Dr 24
Dmt 0 ji t dt
t
13
Equations 18 to 24 constitute the complete boundary value problem.
The solution for f, which is obtained numerically, provides the evolu-
Substitution of Eq. 12 into Eq. 9 and division of both sides by m* then tion of d1(t) that matches its observed initial and final states while re-
yields, for b2 0 maining consistent with Eqs. 18 to 20.
Dm dd1 j* j Turnover time, the organic burial fraction, and fc
1 i d1 d*1 i di d1 14 Equation 17 shows that the turnover time t0 equals the mass m* of in-
m* dt m* m*
organic carbon in the oceans divided by the input flux j*i . In steady state,
the latter is equal to the rate at which carbon is immobilized in marine
Recall also the definitions of the normalized mass perturbation sediments. The modern preindustrial reservoir of dissolved inorganic
carbon is about 38,000 Pg (133). Sedimentary organic carbon and car-
M Dm=m* 15 bonate carbon are immobilized in sediments at the total preindustrial
rate of approximately 0.28 Pg year1 (134, 135). By dividing the reservoir
size by the sequestration rate, one obtains t0 140 ky.
the normalized input flux Krissansen-Totton et al. (21) have recently provided a comprehen-
sive analysis of the evolution of the organic burial fraction through ge-
ologic time, commonly designated as f. Their study of the Phanerozoic
J ji =j*i 16
portion of the record largely derives from an earlier analysis of Hayes et al.
(43); both studies find f 0.23, which this paper assigns to fc. Hayes et al.
and the turnover time (43) compute f in a series of contiguous intervals throughout the Phan-
erozoic, obtaining a sequence fi. The root mean square (rms) fluctuation
t0 m*=j*i 17 of the fis is 0.037. The error assigned to fc is twice the rms fluctuation.
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