Hydrological Sciences Journal

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A triangular model for the generation of synthetic

hyetographs

MANEL ELLOUZE , HABIB ABIDA & RIADH SAFI

To cite this article: MANEL ELLOUZE , HABIB ABIDA & RIADH SAFI (2009) A triangular model
for the generation of synthetic hyetographs, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 54:2, 287-299, DOI:
10.1623/hysj.54.2.287

To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1623/hysj.54.2.287

Published online: 21 Dec 2009.

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 Hydrological SciencesJournaldes Sciences Hydrologiques, 54(2) April 2009 287

A triangular model for the generation of synthetic hyetographs

MANEL ELLOUZE, HABIB ABIDA & RIADH SAFI

Faculty of Sciences of Sfax, Sokra Road, BP 1171, 3000 Sfax, Tunisia
manel.ellouze@voila.fr

Abstract The method of historic event is used to generate synthetic hyetographs based on statistical
analysis of precipitation data. A synthetic triangular model was developed based on rainfall data of Zioud
watershed (central Tunisia) with a standard time step of one hour. A database of 2799 observed rainfall
events was used to provide statistical parameters for a simple triangular-shaped hyetograph model. The
developed model provides a synthetic hyetograph in dimensionless form for different storm durations (2, 3
and 4 hours). For a given season and location, the variation of the first dimensionless moment with duration
was relatively small, with an average range of 13% for all the stations. The resulting dimensionless hyeto-
graphs were found to be nearly identical when they were non-dimensionalized using the rainfall depth and
duration, showing some seasonal effect and insignificant effects of the rainfall duration. A good agreement
between simulated and observed hyetographs was achieved based on not only visual impressions, but also
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statistical numerical and graphical tests.

Key words synthetic hyetograph; triangular model; statistical analysis; hydrological design

Un modle triangulaire pour la gnration de hytogrammes synthtiques

Rsum La mthode de laverse historique est utilise pour gnrer des hytogrammes synthtiques
moyennant lanalyse statistique de donnes de prcipitation. Un modle synthtique triangulaire a t tabli
sur la base des sries pluviomtriques du bassin versant de Zioud (Tunisie centrale), avec un pas de temps
standard dune heure. Une base de donnes de 2799 vnements de pluie observs a t utilise pour fournir
les paramtres statistiques dun modle de hytogramme de forme triangulaire simple. Le modle dvelopp
fournit un hytogramme synthtique sous une forme adimensionnelle pour diffrentes dures daverse (2,3 et
4 heures). Pour une saison et un lieu donns, la variation du premier moment adimensionnel selon la dure
est relativement faible, avec une gamme moyenne de 13% pour lensemble des stations. Les hytogrammes
adimensionnels obtenus sont presque identiques lorsquils sont normaliss par rapport la hauteur de pluie
et la dure, prsentant un effet saisonnier et une influence non significative de la dure de la pluie. Un bon
accord entre les hytogrammes simuls et observs est obtenu, non seulement en termes dimpressions
visuelles mais aussi de tests numriques et graphiques.
Mots cls hytogramme synthtique; modle triangulaire; analyse statistique; prdtermination hydrologique

INTRODUCTION
The occurrence of an extreme precipitation event and the resulting flood are critical considerations
in the design of hydraulic structures. It is thus important to express, in probabilistic terms and for
different durations, the temporal and spatial characteristics of extreme storm events. In particular,
storm distributions or hyetographs are required for the design of small storm drainage systems,
which are more sensitive to high-intensity and short-duration rainfall events than large drainage
basins. In the latter, the time of concentration is relatively long and the effect of the time variation
of intensity is minor, and thus the average intensity is generally sufficient for engineering design
purposes.
A synthetic hyetograph for a particular location is often used by engineers for the design of
hydraulic structures such as culverts or runoff detention basins. Various methods for generating
design storm hyetographs are available in the literature. Veneziano & Villani (1999) suggest that
most of these methods can be classified into one of the following categories:
1 specification of simple geometrical shapes anchored to a single point of the intensity
durationfrequency (IDF) curve;
2 use of the entire IDF curve;
3 use of standardized profiles obtained directly from rainfall records, and
4 simulation from stochastic models.

Open for discussion until 1 October 2009 Copyright 2009 IAHS Press
 288 Manel Ellouze et al.

Different methods based entirely on intensitydurationfrequency relationships, were pro-

posed, such as those of Keifer & Chu (1957), known as the Chicago method, and USACE (2000),
referred to as the frequency based hypothetical storm. These methods are affected by the same
drawback as the IDF curves themselves. Bedient & Huber (2002) point out: A critical charac-
teristic of IDF curves is that the intensities are indeed averages over the specified duration and do
not represent actual time histories of rainfall. The contour for a given return period could
represent the smoothed results of several different storms. Moreover, the duration is not the actual
length of a storm.
Standardized profiles, also known as mass curves, transform a precipitation event to a dimen-
sionless curve with cumulative fraction of time and total precipitation on the horizontal and
vertical axes, respectively. Veneziano & Villani (1999) argued that rainfall records are highly
variable because of the uncertainty of what actually constitutes a rainfall event, and because of the
randomness of the rainfall phenomenon itself. Therefore, standardized profiles must use some sort
of temporal smoothing, or ensemble averaging. Use of standardized rainfall profiles is quite
common in the hydrology literature (Prodanovic & Simonovic, 2004). Some of the most popular
methods are those of Huff (1967) and the US Soil Conservation Service (SCS, 1986).
In an attempt to overcome data limitations and to improve reliability, a regional index storm
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approach based on linear moments was applied to estimate short duration (24 h) design rainfall
events in South Africa (Smithers & Schulze, 2001). Regionalisation was performed using only site
characteristics (latitude, longitude, altitude, concentration of precipitation, mean annual precipi-
tation (MAP), rainfall seasonality and distance from the sea) and required a minimum of subjective
relocation of stations in order to obtain relatively homogeneous clusters. Using information from
172 rainfall stations with at least 10 years of short-duration rainfall records, 15 relatively homo-
geneous clusters were identified in South Africa. The index storm used was the mean of the annual
maximum series, and a relationship was derived between the index storm and MAP. This
methodology enabled the estimation of short-duration design storms at ungauged sites in South
Africa.
A database of rainfall and runoff in Texas, USA (1600 observed cumulative hyetographs that
produced runoff from 91 small watersheds) was used to provide statistical parameters for a simple
triangular shaped hyetograph model (Asquith et al., 2003). The model provides an estimate of the
average hyetograph in dimensionless form for storm durations of less than 24 h and between 24
and 72 h. The obtained dimensionless cumulative hyetographs were found to be independent of the
frequency level or return period of total storm depth, and can therefore be used for many design
applications.
Koutsoyiannis & Mamassis (2001) compared two stochastic models of the rainfall process
(the scaling model of storm hyetograph and the Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse model) to show
how well they reproduce certain hyetograph characteristics. Inter-comparison was based on the
storm hyetographs of a data set from Greece and another from the USA. Both models were fitted
using the characteristics of observed storms. The comparison showed that the scaling model of
storm hyetograph agreed well with the structure of historical hyetographs, whereas the Bartlett-
Lewis rectangular pulse model presented some discrepancies. By introducing a power-law
dependence of its cell related parameters (duration and rate of arrival) on the storm duration, the
Bartlett-Lewis model was significantly improved.
Lin et al. (2005) proposed a procedure to evaluate design hyetographs at ungauged sites. The
method is applied to the central area of Taiwan. First, the single-station design hyetographs at all
raingauges are analysed using principal components analysis and cluster analysis. The principal
components analysis shows that there are six dominant factors, and the cluster analysis indicates
that the time to peak rainfall has the largest influence on the classification of hyetographs. It was
also shown that the single-station hyetographs in the study area could be classified into three
clusters. Finally, the homogeneous regions for these three clusters were delineated and the corres-
ponding regional design hyetographs were proposed. The proposed method was expected to be
useful for providing the design hyetographs at ungauged sites.

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 A triangular model for the generation of synthetic hyetographs 289

Recently, Grimaldi & Serinaldi (2006) developed a multivariate approach to define design
rainfall patterns in a probabilistic way, in order to analyse observed data of critical depth, peak and
total depth. A bivariate analysis of peaktotal depth conditioned on critical depth was developed
using a 3-copula function. They described properties of this copula class and performed extensive
simulations to highlight differences with the well-known symmetric Archimedean copulas. They
applied asymmetric distributions to observed flood data and compared the results to those obtained
using distributions built with symmetric copula and the standard Gumbel logistic model.
Following the proposed procedure, once design return period and related critical depth were
selected, it was possible to determine, in a probabilistic way, peak and total depth, without
advancing a priori hypotheses on the design hyetograph pattern (Grimaldi & Serenaldi, 2006).
Such a wide variety of design hyetograph shapes often creates confusion about which
procedure should be adopted in research and design practice, in order to obtain correct flood peak
estimates. Furthermore, these methods were mainly developed for humid climates (Keifer & Chu
1957; USACE 2000; Koutsoyiannis & Mamassis 2001, among others). Besides, commonly used
hyetographs cannot preserve the statistical moment characteristics of the actual rainstorms, if the
mass curves are considered. These methods, which may only be adjusted to specific conditions,
require too much data and involve tedious computations.
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In this study, a simple geometric shape is proposed to represent simple local storm distri-
butions, where major parameters describing the rainstorm temporal patterns are identified based on
calibration and statistical analysis of actual rainfall data. Indeed, a design hyetograph accepted by
practicing engineers, besides being simple and easy to use, must preserve, at least approximately,
rainfall characteristics of a particular study zone.
The proposed method is illustrated by an application to Zioud watershed (central Tunisia),
characterized by an arid to semi-arid climate. First the proposed method of analysis is presented,
then the study area and data used are described, and, finally, results are summarized and this
particular application is discussed.

METHOD OF ANALYSIS
A storm hyetograph is a graphical representation of the variation of precipitation with time.
Several approaches may be used to describe mathematically the temporal distribution of rainfall
intensity. Theoretically, any distribution can be described by using a sufficient number of
moments. The representation is generally more accurate if more moments are used, but the
computation becomes more complicated (Yen & Chow, 1980).
This study presents a new model for the generation of design storms, particularly suitable for
arid and semi-arid regions. These latter are characterized by specific climatic and hydrological
patterns. In fact, storm floods are associated with sudden occurrence and rapid rise. Flooding
happens quickly and durations are short, often of only a few hours or half a day, and rarely more
than one day. The time to peak from the beginning of the rising limb of the hydrograph may even
be as little as 10 minutes (Tilahun, 2006). The flood hydrograph obviously shows a sharp peak,
with rising and falling limbs changing suddenly. These flash floods result largely from storms and
therefore more attention should be paid to the rainfall. In this context, this study assumes a
triangular shape to represent the rapid rise and sharp peak of the rainfall hyetograph.
The proposed triangular-shaped design storm, which is expected to fit rainfall time distribu-
tion in arid and semi-arid regions, is a one-parameter model that could be estimated by preserving
the first moment of the rainfall event. Total rainfall depth is given by the area under the
hyetograph. This approach, based on statistical analysis to estimate the parameter, can reduce the
smoothing effect of averaging. Besides, a design storm described by one or two parameters can be
applied easily on a regional basis (Watt et al., 1986).
A schematic presentation of a typical hyetograph is shown in Fig. 1. The average depth per
time interval, d and the first moment arm of the hyetograph with respect to the beginning time of

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 290 Manel Ellouze et al.

Fig. 1 Triangular representation of a hyetograph.

the rainstorm (Fig. 1), t are given by:

n
t ( j 0.5) d j
1 n j =1
d = d j ; t =
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(1)
n j =1 D
where dj is the rainfall depth corresponding to the jth time interval; D is the total depth of a
rainstorm; n is the number of time intervals for the rainstorms; and t is the time interval.
For a triangular representation of the hyetograph, only the first time moment is needed to
define the hyetograph:
h t td + a
td = a + b ; d= ; t= (2)
2 3
where a, b and h represent the geometric characteristics of the triangular hyetograph as shown in
Fig. 1.
Solving these equations yields:
2d 2D
a = 3t td ; b = 2 td 3t ; h= = (3)
t td
In order to describe in general terms the time distribution of the rainfall, the hyetograph is
non-dimensionalized by using depth D and duration td as the non-dimensionalizing parameters:
t h
to = ; a o = 3t o 1 ; bo = 2 3t o ; ho = (t d ) 1 = 2 (4)
td D

where t o is the dimensionless first moment, ao is dimensionless rising time, bo is dimensionless

time to decrease and ho is the non-dimensional average intensity of the hyetograph. Therefore,
three points on the triangular hyetograph are constructed, denoted (t, i): (0, 0), (ao, ho) and ( t do , 0).
The moment parameters described above, which represent the hyetographs statistically, are
computed for each individually recorded rainstorm. A storm was defined as the precipitation
period separated from the preceding and succeeding rainfall events by at least 4 h. Separate storms
were identified based on visual inspection of the graphical representation of the rainfall data. The
simulation was achieved by a numerical computer model, based on the Omnis language.
Statistical analysis is then performed to find the means and variations of these parameters for
the rainstorms at each rainfall station. However, for a given location, the shape of the dimen-
sionless hyetograph and the values of the corresponding moments may depend on the duration and
depth of the rainstorm. Therefore, a probability analysis is performed to identify the effects of the
rainfall parameters (duration and depth of the rainstorm). For instance, the hourly precipitation
data of a station are sorted into subgroups of 1-, 2-, 3- and 4-h, and longer durations to investigate

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 A triangular model for the generation of synthetic hyetographs 291

whether this has any effect on the statistical mean parameters. Statistical analysis is then
performed on each of the subgroups. In order to investigate whether there is any seasonal effect,
the data are sorted separately for each month of the year.

STUDY AREA AND DATA USED

The model described above was applied to the Zioud watershed (central Tunisia), which covers an
area of 7.74 km2. Most of the watershed consists of hills and mountains, with altitudes varying
between 720 and 1250 m. The Zioud watershed is characterized by a stretched form and a well
developed stream network (Fig. 2). Annual minimum and maximum average temperature values
are 3 and 35C, respectively. The winds are governed by the Saharan anticyclone movements over
the Atlantic Ocean and the movements of cold air masses from Europe (Bergaoui & Albergel,
2002).
Rainfall in central Tunisia might be crudely characterized by its short duration, irregularity
and erratic distribution, all leading to either periods of drought or intensive rainy periods, with
storms causing disastrous flooding. When it is swept at the equinoxes by tides of opposing
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depressions, the result is severe cold fronts, along with violent storms and frequent downpours.
Autumn is the rainiest season (37% of the annual amount), followed by spring (29%). Only 8% of
the annual rain falls in the summer months.
Hourly precipitation data recorded between 1974 and 1991 at 10 gauging stations, obtained
from the publications of the Tunisian Ministry of Agriculture and Water Resources, were used.

Fig. 2 Map of the study area: Zioud watershed (central Tunisia).

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 292 Manel Ellouze et al.

Table 1 Characteristics of data used (see Fig. 2 for station locations).

Station Record length Number of rainfall events:
(years) Winter Spring Summer Autumn Total
1 7 62 73 22 49 206
2 14 122 152 40 123 437
3 17 174 225 64 178 641
4 5 27 56 22 33 138
5 14 97 141 37 90 365
6 11 81 105 27 78 291
7 6 38 51 19 33 141
8 10 75 104 24 96 299
9 5 37 58 19 40 154
10 5 31 51 16 29 127
Total 744 1016 290 749 2799
Percentage (%) 27 37 11 25 100

The mean annual precipitation is 350 mm, ranging between more than 624 mm, recorded in the
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mountainous sector (Station 7) and less than 111 mm, recorded at the basin outlet. These averages
are subject to very wide annual fluctuations (1 to 6).
In total, 2799 rainstorms, of duration ranging from 1 to 13 h, were selected for the study. All
storms used have a mean precipitation depth greater than 4 mm and an average storm intensity
exceeding 1.5 mm/h, which represent the threshold for quick and forceful runoff generation
(Bergaoui & Albergel, 2002). Table 1 presents, for each station, the record length, and the number
or rainstorms for each season. It also shows that the maximum of rainstorms occurred in spring
(37% of the total).

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Data were first sorted according to season and duration. Next, the parameters of the triangular
model described above were computed for each individual rainstorm. Statistical values for each of
the parameters were then computed for the rainstorms of each group. Table 2 displays computed
mean values of the non-dimensional first moment t o . Rainstorms with 1 h nominal duration are
not included in the statistical analysis, because they produce symmetrical triangular hyetograph.
For a given season and location (Table 2), the variation of t o with duration is relatively small,
with an average range of 13% for all the stations. The relative constancy of the values of t o is
remarkable considering the long recording time interval of the data (hourly).
The dimensionless rising time values are computed using the equations given above. For t o
values less than 0.32 and exceeding 0.67, negative values for the geometric characteristics of the
triangular hyetograph (a and b) are obtained and therefore the method does not provide any results.
From sensitivity analysis, rainstorms having moments t o 0.32 and t o 0.67 are considered
outliers and thereafter neglected and rejected from the study (Yen & Chow, 1980).
Computed values of ao for the non-dimensional hyetographs are given in Table 3. It is
important to note that the obtained values are statistically comparable. The smallest values of the
dimensionless rising time (ao) for all durations were obtained for summer and autumn seasons. In
addition, Table 3 shows a wide range of variations of this parameter (from 18 to 45%). This result
is consistent with the expected behaviour of precipitation. In fact, it is expected that the general
characteristics of summer rainstorms differ from those of the other seasons, particularly winter and
autumn.
Synthetic hyetographs obtained for stations 1, 5 and 10 for different durations and different
seasons, are presented in Fig. 3. These stations were chosen arbitrarily to represent the down-
stream, the centre and the upstream regions, respectively, as it is inconvenient to present results

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 A triangular model for the generation of synthetic hyetographs 293

o
Table 2 Mean values of non-dimensional first moment t .
Season Duration: Season Duration:
All durations 2 h 3h All durations 2 h 3h
Station 1 Station 2
122 0.498 0.502 0.496 122 0.477 0.463 0.485
35 0.498 0.503 0.5 35 0.496 0.481 0.503
68 0.476 0.494 0.445 68 0.438 0.436 0.432
911 0.483 0.478 0.517 911 0.494 0.486 0.499
Station 3 Station 4
122 0.495 0.477 0.508 122 0.499 0.492 0.533
35 0.499 0.493 0.495 35 0.490 0.490 0.480
68 0.500 0.499 0.493 68 0.479 0.485 0.461
911 0.489 0.481 0.505 911 0.485 0.495 0.446
Station 5 Station 6
122 0.490 0.474 0.517 122 0.479 0.463 0.502
35 0.500 0.493 0.494 35 0.491 0.479 0.506
68 0.488 0.475 0.498 68 0.473 0.450 0.514
911 0.480 0.478 0.500 911 0.484 0.478 0.490
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Station 7 Station 8
122 0.494 0.478 0.511 122 0.499 0.497 0.492
35 0.483 0.486 0.478 35 0.495 0.492 0.497
68 0.507 0.517 0.450 68 0.502 0.485 0.517
911 0.497 0.496 0.507 911 0.497 0.492 0.502
Station 9 Station 10
122 0.505 0.514 0.497 122 0.497 0.490 0.507
35 0.509 0.512 0.529 35 0.494 0.483 0.490
68 0.504 0.500 0.477 68 0.521 0.489 0.560
911 0.475 0.487 0.467 911 0.484 0.494 0.425
122: Winter; 35: Spring; 68: Summer; and 911: Autumn.

Table 3 Mean values of the dimensionless rising time a.

Season Duration Season Duration
All durations 2 h 3h All durations 2 h 3h
Station 1 Station 2
122 0,493 0,505 0,487 122 0.432 0.389 0.455
35 0,493 0,508 0,501 35 0.489 0.444 0.508
68 0,428 0,481 0,335 68 0.314 0.309 0.295
911 0,449 0,433 0,551 911 0.482 0.459 0.498
Station 3 Station 4
122 0.484 0.430 0.523 122 0.498 0.477 0.598
35 0.496 0.478 0.486 35 0.469 0.469 0.439
68 0.501 0.496 0.478 68 0.438 0.454 0.383
911 0.468 0.444 0.515 911 0.456 0.486 0.339
Station 5 Station 6
122 0.471 0.422 0.550 122 0.436 0.388 0.505
35 0.500 0.478 0.481 35 0.472 0.437 0.518
68 0.464 0.426 0.494 68 0.420 0.349 0.543
911 0.439 0.435 0.501 911 0.452 0.435 0.469
Station 7 Station 8
122 0.482 0.435 0.534 122 0.498 0.491 0.476
35 0.450 0.458 0.433 35 0.484 0.477 0.490
68 0.520 0.552 0.350 68 0.505 0.454 0.550
911 0.492 0.489 0.520 911 0.491 0.477 0.505
Station 9 Station 10
122 0.514 0.543 0.491 122 0.491 0.469 0.520
35 0.527 0.536 0.587 35 0.482 0.448 0.469
68 0.513 0.499 0.431 68 0.562 0.467 0.679
911 0.424 0.460 0.402 911 0.451 0.483 0.275
122: Winter; 35: Spring; 68: Summer; and 911: Autumn.

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Manel Ellouze et al.

(c)

Time,tt
Time
Fig. 3 Synthetic hyetographs obtained for: (a) Station 1, (b) Station 5 and (c) Station 10, showing seasonal and duration effects.
 A triangular model for the generation of synthetic hyetographs 295

(a)

(b)
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(c)

Fig. 4 Synthetic hyetographs showing the effect of rainfall depth for: (a) Station 1; (b) Station 5; and
(c) Station 10.

obtained for all the stations considered. However, it is important to note at this stage that synthetic
hyetographs obtained for all the examined stations are comparable. Figure 3 shows that, compared
to the other types of precipitation, the convective-type rainstorms (summer) have shorter durations.
In addition, the study region is characterized by irregular rainfall, with rainfall durations and peak
intensities varying with the season. Figure 3 also shows that most of the rain in summer tends to
occur during the first half of the storm duration and the peak intensity occurs relatively early.
Summer rainfall events were divided into two groups: those with depths greater than the mean
depth, and those having depths equal to or less than the mean depth. The results, presented in
Fig. 4, show that the effect of rainfall depth is significant, although not dominant. The variation
range is about 8%. The temporal distribution of rainfall is different for the two groups. Yen &
Chow (1980) postulated that the group with depth greater than the statistical mean consists
predominantly of convective storms, while the second may be a mixture of convective and
cyclonic storms. In the Zioud watershed, rain for the synthetic hyetographs with depth equal to or
less than the mean falls in winter and summer. Besides, rainfall in arid regions is often erratic and
torrential. Summer storms in central Tunisia have short duration and considerable depth.

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296
Figure 5 is huge! And needs to be landscape. Ive copied it from the PDF to here for info.
Before I spend any more time formatting it, changes need to be done as recommended earlier.
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Fig. 5 Please insert caption.

(b)

Manel Ellouze et al.

(c)

Fig. 5 Synthetic hyetographs showing the effect of duration for: (a) Station 1; (b) Station 5; and (c) Station 10.
 A triangular model for the generation of synthetic hyetographs 297

Data sets were also divided into groups based on seasonality to determine the effect of
duration on the temporal distribution of the proposed model (Fig. 5). The non-dimensional
triangular hyetographs presented in Fig. 5 are nearly identical for winter and spring. For summer
and autumn, the corresponding hyetographs present a difference for the 2-h and 3-h durations. This
difference may be due to the scarcity of rainstorms in these seasons. Figure 5 also shows that,
compared to the other durations, the 2-h hyetograph has a symmetrical shape.
The quality of a model is measured by the results of its simulation, validated by a comparison
with observed data. In fact, the output of the proposed triangular model needs to be compared to
observed data to check the performance of the model. This validation can range from being
completely subjective, by relying exclusively on visual impressions of the correspondence
between observed and simulated hyetographs, to a detailed statistical analysis that tests the
agreement between the respective time series. Figure 6 shows the correspondence between
simulated and observed hyetographs for six randomly selected events, observed at three stations,
representing different rainfall depths, durations and time distribution patterns. A reasonably good
agreement is observed for all selected events.
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Fig. 6 Comparison between observed and simulated hyetographs for different durations.

Instead of relying exclusively on visual impressions of the correspondence between observed

and simulated series, statistical numerical and graphical measures were considered to test the
agreement between measured and computed hyetographs. The statistics used are: standard error of
estimate (SEE), standard deviation (SD) of relative errors between the residuals (observed and
simulated values), and correlation coefficient (R). Table 4 shows values of these three statistics
computed for stations 1, 5 and 10. The SEE and SD values were found to be relatively low, while
correlation coefficients were close to unity, implying an acceptable concordance between observed
and simulated time series.

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 298 Manel Ellouze et al.

Table 4 Statistical results.

Station SEE SD R
1 0.04 0.20 0.81
5 0.09 1.30 0.98
10 1.02 1.54 0.89
SEE: standard error of estimate; SD: standard deviation of relative errors between the residuals; and R: correlation
coefficient.
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Fig. 7 Scattergrams of observed and simulated peak intensity.

Figure 7 shows the scattergram of recorded data plotted against simulated values (rainfall
peak intensity). The scattergrams of the observed and simulated intensity indicate that the model
reasonably simulated both high and low rainfalls. Residuals in the simulated intensity are also
observed to be fairly low.

CONCLUSION
Since the time distribution of the rainfall of a future rainstorm cannot be predicted precisely, the
design storm hyetograph can only be estimated probabilistically based on statistical analysis of
past records or through synthetic means. The first moment of recorded hyetographs was used to
develop a synthetic triangular model, based on rainfall data of Zioud watershed (central Tunisia)
with a standard time step of one hour. The model provides an estimate of the hyetograph in
dimensionless form for different storm durations (2, 3 and 4 hours). For a given season and
location, the variation of the first dimensionless moment t with duration was relatively small,
with an average range of 13% for all the stations. The resulting dimensionless hyetographs were
found to be nearly identical when they are nondimensionalized using the rainfall depth and
duration, showing some seasonal effect and insignificant effects of the rainfall duration. A good
agreement between simulated and observed hyetographs was achieved based not only on visual
impressions, but also on statistical numerical and graphical tests.
The proposed synthetic hyetograph is based on the analysis of a limited number of rainstorms
of relatively long recording time intervals (some hours). Other studies based on more refined data

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 A triangular model for the generation of synthetic hyetographs 299

(time steps of 5 min, 10 min, ) in other arid and semi-arid regions should be conducted to
confirm the results obtained here and examine the presence of any geographic effects.

Acknowledgments Data used in this study were provided by the Tunisian Ministry of Agriculture,
and Water Resources. The collaboration of Mr Saadaoui of the Water Resources Division and
Mr Ben Younes, engineer from the Tunisian Institute of Research (INRAT) are gratefully
acknowledged.

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Received 24 July 2007; accepted 29 September 2008

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