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C H A P T E R 2
traded in that market, as well as for various the market, and it is useful to do so, there is no
composite currencies or constructed monetary single, or unique dollar exchange rate in the
units such as the International Monetary Fund’s market, just as there is no unique dollar interest
“SDR,” the European Monetary Union’s “ECU,” rate in the market.
and beginning in 1999, the “euro.” There are
also various “trade-weighted” or “effective” rates A market price is determined by the inter-
designed to show a currency’s movements against action of buyers and sellers in that market, and a
an average of various other currencies (see market exchange rate between two currencies is
Box 2-1). Quite apart from the spot rates, there determined by the interaction of the official and
are additional exchange rates for other delivery private participants in the foreign exchange rate
dates, in the forward markets. Accordingly, market. For a currency with an exchange rate that
although we talk about the dollar exchange rate in is fixed, or set by the monetary authorities,
the central bank or another official body is a key
B O X 2 - 1 participant in the market,standing ready to buy or
sell the currency as necessary to maintain the
authorized pegged rate or range. But in the United
BILATERAL AND TRADE-WEIGHTED
States, where the authorities do not intervene in
EXCHANGE RATES
the foreign exchange market on a continuous
Market trading is bilateral, and spot and basis to influence the exchange rate, market
forward market exchange rates are quoted participation is made up of individuals,
in bilateral terms—the dollar versus the nonfinancial firms, banks, official bodies, and
pound, franc, or peso. Changes in the other private institutions from all over the world
dollar’s average value on a multilateral that are buying and selling dollars at that
basis—(i.e., its value against a group or particular time.
basket of currencies) are measured by
using various statistical indexes that have The participants in the foreign exchange
been constructed to capture the dollar’s market are thus a heterogeneous group. Some
movements on a trade-weighted average, of the buyers and sellers may be involved in
or effective exchange rate basis. Among the “goods” market, conducting international
others, the staff of the Federal Reserve transactions for the purchase or sale of
Board of Governors has developed and merchandise. Some may be engaged in “direct
regularly publishes such indexes, which investment” in plant and equipment, or in
measure the average value of the dollar “portfolio investment,” dealing across borders
against the currencies of both a narrow in stocks and bonds and other financial
group and a broad group of other assets, while others may be in the “money
countries. Such trade-weighted and market,” trading short-term debt instru-
other indexes are not traded in the OTC ments internationally. The various investors,
spot or forward markets, where only hedgers, and speculators may be focused on
the constituent currencies are traded. any time period, from a few minutes to several
However, it is possible to buy and sell years. But, whether official or private, and
certain dollar index based futures and whether their motive be investing, hedging,
exchange-traded options in the exchange- speculating, arbitraging, paying for imports,
traded market. or seeking to influence the rate, they are all
part of the aggregate demand for and supply
of the currencies involved, and they all play a influences such a vast array of participants
role in determining the market exchange rate and business decisions, it is a pervasive
at that instant. and singularly important price in an
open economy, influencing consumer prices,
Given the diverse views, interests, and investment decisions, interest rates, economic
time frames of the participants, predicting growth, the location of industry, and
the future course of exchange rates is a much else. The role of the foreign exchange
particularly complex and uncertain business. market in the determination of that price is
At the same time, since the exchange rate critically important.
B O X 2 - 2
market because of “settlement risk,” the risk that arrangements, a substantial amount of time
one party to a foreign exchange transaction will can pass between a payment and the time the
pay out the currency it is selling but not receive counter-payment is received—and a substantial
the currency it is buying. Because of time zone credit risk can arise. Efforts to reduce or
differences and delays caused by the banks’ own eliminate settlement risk are discussed in
internal procedures and corresponding banking Chapter 8.