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Author(s): Paul Allen Beck, Russell J. Dalton, Audrey A. Haynes and Robert Huckfeldt
Source: The Journal of Politics, Vol. 59, No. 4 (Nov., 1997), pp. 1264-1275
Published by: The University of Chicago Press on behalf of the Southern Political Science
Association
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2998601
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Presidential Campaigning at the Grass Roots
Russell J. Dalton
University of California, Irvine
Audrey A. Haynes
Georgia State University
Robert Huckfeldt
Indiana University
This study investigates differences in grass-roots party activity for the Democratic and Republi-
cation presidential candidates in 1992. Chairs of the party organizations and the presidential campaign
organizations in a national sample of counties reported considerable variation in relative party effort
at the county level in 1992, with the Democrats generally outperforming their GOP rivals. Four
factors were examined as potential sources of these differences: electoral conditions at the state and
county levels, capacities of the local organizations, integration of the local organizations into the
national campaign, and responsiveness of the different local parties to one another. Only the relative
organizational capacities of local party organizations (but not presidential campaign organizations)
and integration of local and national organizations were strongly related to interparty activity differ-
ences, which confirms the importance of the standing local party organizations and the modern
"coordinated campaign" for grass-roots party effort on behalf of presidential candidates.
THE JOURNAL OF POLITICS, Vol. 59, No. 4, November 1997, Pp. 1264-75
C) 1997 by the University of Texas Press, P.O. Box 7819, Austin, TX 78713-7819
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Presidential Campaigning at the Grass Roots 1265
Kessel 1991; Crotty 1986; Epstein 1986, ch. 5; Gibson et al. 1985; Gibson,
Frendreis, and Vertz 1989).
This study examines this grass-roots party effort on behalf of the major-party
presidential candidates during the 1992 campaign.1 It draws upon data collected
by mail and telephone from the leaders of the Democratic and Republican party
and presidential campaign organizations in a national sample of counties, which
are representative of the environments in which voters resided). Earlier analysis
of these data demonstrated considerable variation across locales in the activities
of all four of these organizations (Beck et al. 1993). The focus of this article is
on the circumstances under which the differential effort of the two parties varies
across counties.
The conventional wisdom probably would not have led us to expect much
party activity at the county level on behalf of the presidential candidates in 1992,
but the conventional wisdom was simply wrong. Local party organizations were
surprisingly active on behalf of their presidential candidate during the 1992 pres-
idential campaign. One or both of the Democratic organizations performed each
of twelve basic activities in a majority of the counties. Although Republican
organizations, especially the Bush-Quayle campaign, invested correspondingly
less effort virtually across the board, in no counties was either party entirely
inactive during the campaign. The party differential in a summary index of the
twelve presidential campaign activities (see the Appendix for a description of this
measure) is displayed in Figure 1. It shows that Republicans outperformed Dem-
ocrats in a few counties, but in most the Democrats enjoyed the net activity
advantage, which was considerable in some cases (Beck et al. 1994).
'We attempted to identify the leaders of the local Perot organizations in our sample counties so
that we could contact them for our study; after repeated tiies, these efforts were uinsuccessful, so we
are unable to say anything about the grass-roots Perot effort.
2Information on the local major-partv presidential campaign effort was collected by asking county
presidential and party organization chairs or their equivalents in a stratified sample of 39 counties
nationwide to describe the activities of their organizations on behalf of the presidential candidate.
(Parallel data Nwere included from a fortieth county where a local study had been conducted, but that
did not change any of the results.) Completed reports were received from 158 of the 160 organizations
solicited, including 39 of the 40 counties for the Republicans and all 40 counties for the Democrats,
for a response rate of over 99%. These counties wvere the primary sampling units for a national
telephone survey of 1,318 adults conducted immediately after the 1992 election. They were chosen
by a stratified sampling procedure (wvith replacement) in which the strata were county population
size, mean educational level, and population change from 1980 to 1990. The resulting sample is
representative of the county party environments in which voters resided or, to put it differently, of
American counties weighted by 1990 population size. Not only did the almost-perfect response rate
enable us to avoid the biasing effects of nonresponse from dormant local organizations, but the
sampling procedure produced a diverse set of counties, ranging fiom the nation's largest (Los Angeles
and Orange counties in California) to some of its smallest (Aitkin County, Minnesota; Simpson
County, Mississippi) and located in 25 different states. Most decisively for purposes of representation,
our sample of voters from these counties was 39% for Bush, 44% for Clinton, and 17% for
Perot-easily within sampling error of the official vote totals nationwide.
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1266 Paul Beck, Russell Dalton, Audrey Haynes, and Robert Huckfeldt
FIGURE 1
20%
15%0
In e -t in e -t -t e -L
It It e r I l l IcIiv ties
Democratic Activities Minus Republican Activities
What accounts for this variation in relative party activity at the grass roots?
Theoretically speaking, we should look to four different circumstances. First,
relative party efforts may be related to the electoral standing of the two parties,
in the county but also statewide. Second, the campaign activity differential be-
tween the local parties should be connected to their relative organizational
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Presidential Campaigning at the Grass Roots 1267
capacities. Third, in this age of the "coordinated campaign," local party activity
may be tied to the locals' relationship to the national campaign, with the gap
between the parties reflecting differences in their national campaign strategies
and levels of vertical integration. Finally, the activities of one local party may
come in response to what its competitor is doing. These four factors, which are
described in more detail below, combine to form our model of party differences
in county campaign activity.
Electoral Standing. It stands to reason that electoral conditions, especially the
base of voter support party candidates can normally expect to receive, should be
related to local party effort. Our working hypothesis is that the party enjoying
the local electoral advantage should be more active in the campaign. Not only
are the volunteers and other resources necessary to sustain a party organization
over the long haul easier to find in areas where the party has been successful in
the past, but the multimessage environment of the presidential election (Zaller
1992) provides a powerful incentive for parties to mobilize their support base for
the presidential nominee (Beck 1974). It is natural to expect this relationship at
the county level. Because the states are the constituencies in presidential elections,
the rational party might devote equal attention to local areas of weak and strong
electoral support, so we should look for the relationship at the state level as well.
Or-ganizational Capacityi. It is a cardinal rule of politics that grass-roots cam-
paign activity requires organization. And only to a limited degree can this
organization be imported from the outside. A common assumption of presidential
campaign leaders is that they can organize local areas by sending in their own
team to run the campaign, but the annals of political campaigning contain many
examples in which this assumption is proven invalid. Rather, the greatest advan-
tage for the presidential campaign organization probably accrues from having a
strong local party organization that is willing to lend its all-out support to the
local ticket and/or contribute seasoned local operatives for the presidential effort
(Kessel 1984, 312). Yet, it seems unreasonable to expect the county party organ-
ization to have as much incentive for presidential campaign activity as does the
single-minded presidential organization. The traditional party has alternative
uses-and more claimants-for its scarce resources, and it typically is more
concerned with electing candidates to state and local offices than to the presi-
dency. On the other hand, the boost a successful presidential candidate can give
to the whole party ticket prevents the county party organization from entirely
neglecting the presidential race. Consequently, while differences between party
and presidential organizations are to be anticipated, we should expect the capacity
of each to be an important source of local effort.
National Camnpaign Integrationi. Grass-roots activities are quite naturally
thought to reflect local conditions and local choices. Yet local activities can become
integral parts of a national campaign when they are conducted in accordance with
a coordinated national campaign strategy. The county presidential organizations, of
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1268 Paul Beck, Russell Dalton, Audrey Haynes, and Robert Huckfeldt
course, as "agents" of state and national "principals" on whom they are entirely
dependent for their own positions and resources, are expected to execute the
strategic plan according to dictates from above. The county party organizations,
by contrast, seem more inclined to operate independently of the national cam-
paign organizations and even of the upper levels of their own state organizational
"stratarchy" (Eldersveld 1964). Nonetheless, the extent to which the local party
organizations are autonomous actors in the presidential campaign may be exag-
gerated, at least in recent years. Both national parties, especially the Republican
National Committee, have engaged in extensive party building at the local level
(Epstein 1986, ch. 7; Frantzich, 1986; Wekkin 1985) and, as a consequence, their
local organizations are likely to be more responsive to national party desires, even
if the national committees have been careful not to violate long-standing prin-
ciples of local control (Bibby 1980). As a means of channeling financial resources
to the local party for waging a generic party campaign in presidential years, "soft
money" (Sorauf 1992) has become another conduit for national influence, how-
ever subtle, on local party activities. Even if there is no explicit quid pro quo,
the prospect of receiving money and party-building expertise in the future should
integrate the local parties more with the higher levels of both the party organi-
zation and the presidential campaign. Local presidential campaign activity,
therefore, may be heightened by a stronger link to party organizational forces
beyond the immediate community.
But how is this integration accomplished? The national organizations have two
ways to draw the local parties into a presidential campaign. One way is to maintain
good channels of communication to the local units, keeping in touch with them
regularly on matters of mutual interest and thereby making them a part of what
Schlesinger (1985) would call the presidential campaign "nucleus." The national
presidential campaign can energize the local parties also by supplying them with
the candidate himself. Visits by the presidential candidate are the scarcest of re-
sources, and they are allocated only to the locales that are of the highest priority to
the campaign and where the local parties can make the most effective use of them
(Bartels 1985; West 1983). The party differential in presidential visits, too, should
be positively related to relative levels of local party activity.
Competitive Responsiveness. One of the most familiar observations about party
campaign effort at the local level is that activity by one party stimulates activity
by the other party (Key 1949, 388; Marvick 1980). Even though this "organi-
zational symmetry" hypothesis, strictly speaking, posits a synchronization of
party activity over time, it is worth considering in our cross-sectional 1992 study.
A model predicting relative party activity is not suitable for testing the symmetry
hypothesis, however, because the evidence for synchronization lies in the size of
the activity differentials themselves rather than in their relationship to some
"right-hand-side" variable. Consequently, we will turn to other analyses to test
the symmetry hypothesis.
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Presidential Campaigning at the Grass Roots 1269
3This analysis assumes that the effects of each factor are linear through the full range of the
variable and additive. While it is tempting to treat the relationships that result fiom this regression
analysis in causal terms, because a temporal ordering exists between at least some of the factors, the
cross-sectional design of this study requires a generally more modest "what goes Nwith what"
interpretation.
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1270 Paul Beck, Russell Dalton, Audrey Haynes, and Robert Huckfeldt
TABLE 1
Electoral Conditions
County Vote .020 .029 .21 .419
State Vote -.015 -.007 -.05 .480
Organizational Capacities
Party Budget .001 .050 .32 .374
Party Staff 1.239 .389 2.73 .005
Pr-esidential Budget .001 .154 .88 .172
Pr esidential Staff -.130 -.o102 -.67 .255
National Campaign Integration
National Contact 1.474 .387 2.84 .004
Presidential Visits .541 .252 1.88 .035
Constant 3.632 .154 5.14 .004
R-squaired = .51
Adjusted R-squared = .38
Standard error = 4.28
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Presidential Campaigning at the Grass Roots 1271
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1272 Paul Beck, Russell Dalton, Audrey Haynes, and Robert Huckfeldt
CONCLUSION
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Presidential Campaigning at the Grass Roots 1273
1992 contest are any indication, the Republicans have not yet succeeded in erasing
their competitive disadvantage in this respect.
All in all, the results of this study demonstrate not only that the parties were
alive and well at the grass roots in the 1992 general elections, but that their
preexisting strength and their strategic choices about how to run their county
campaigns made a difference in their campaign efforts. To ignore these local
efforts is to miss a significant part of the campaigns for the presidency and to
overlook a critical source of variation in the parties' voter appeals.
APPENDIX
DESCRIPTION OF MEASURES
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1274 Paul Beck, Russell Dalton, Audrey Haynes, and Robert Huckfeldt
local candidate organization with the national campaign organization. The vari-
able had a possible range of -4 to +4 and an actual range of -3 to +3. Finally,
County Vote and State Vote were simply the Democratic percentages of the
1988 major-party presidential vote at each level. In the few cases where the
organizational respondent did not know the answer to the question, that organ-
ization's score was set at zero.
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