Month Ridership

Jan-91 1708.917
Feb-91 1620.586
Mar-91 1972.715
Apr-91 1811.665
May-91 1974.964
Jun-91 1862.356
Jul-91 1939.86
Aug-91 2013.264
Sep-91 1595.657
Oct-91 1724.924
Nov-91 1675.667
Dec-91 1813.863
Jan-92 1614.827
Feb-92 1557.088
Mar-92 1891.223
Apr-92 1955.981
May-92 1884.714
Jun-92 1623.042
Jul-92 1903.309
Aug-92 1996.712
Sep-92 1703.897
Oct-92 1810
Nov-92 1861.601
Dec-92 1875.122
Jan-93 1705.259
Feb-93 1618.535
Mar-93 1836.709
Apr-93 1957.043
May-93 1917.185
Jun-93 1882.398
Jul-93 1933.009
Aug-93 1996.167
Sep-93 1672.841
Oct-93 1752.827
Nov-93 1720.377
Dec-93 1734.292
Jan-94 1563.365
Feb-94 1573.959
Mar-94 1902.639
Apr-94 1833.888
May-94 1831.049
Jun-94 1775.755
Jul-94 1867.508
Aug-94 1906.608
Sep-94 1685.632
Oct-94 1778.546
Nov-94 1775.995
Dec-94 1783.35
Jan-95 1548.415
Feb-95 1496.925
Mar-95 1798.316
Apr-95 1732.895
May-95 1772.345
Jun-95 1761.207
Jul-95 1791.655
Aug-95 1874.82
Sep-95 1571.309
Oct-95 1646.948
Nov-95 1672.631
Dec-95 1656.845
Jan-96 1381.758
Feb-96 1360.852
Mar-96 1558.575
Apr-96 1608.42
May-96 1696.696
Jun-96 1693.183
Jul-96 1835.516
Aug-96 1942.573
Sep-96 1551.401
Oct-96 1686.508
Nov-96 1576.204
Dec-96 1700.433
Jan-97 1396.588
Feb-97 1371.69
Mar-97 1707.522
Apr-97 1654.604
May-97 1762.903
Jun-97 1775.8
Jul-97 1934.219
Aug-97 2008.055
Sep-97 1615.924
Oct-97 1773.91
Nov-97 1732.368
Dec-97 1796.626
Jan-98 1570.33
Feb-98 1412.691
Mar-98 1754.641
Apr-98 1824.932
May-98 1843.289
Jun-98 1825.964
Jul-98 1968.172
Aug-98 1921.645
Sep-98 1669.597
Oct-98 1791.474
Nov-98 1816.714
Dec-98 1846.754
Jan-99 1599.427
Feb-99 1548.804
Mar-99 1832.333
Apr-99 1839.72
May-99 1846.498
Jun-99 1864.852
Jul-99 1965.743
Aug-99 1949.002
Sep-99 1607.373
Oct-99 1803.664
Nov-99 1850.309
Dec-99 1836.435
Jan-00 1541.66
Feb-00 1616.928
Mar-00 1919.538
Apr-00 1971.493
May-00 1992.301
Jun-00 2009.763
Jul-00 2053.996
Aug-00 2097.471
Sep-00 1823.706
Oct-00 1976.997
Nov-00 1981.408
Dec-00 2000.153
Jan-01 1683.148
Feb-01 1663.404
Mar-01 2007.928
Apr-01 2023.792
May-01 2047.008
Jun-01 2072.913
Jul-01 2126.717
Aug-01 2202.638
Sep-01 1707.693
Oct-01 1950.716
Nov-01 1973.614
Dec-01 1984.729
Jan-02 1759.629
Feb-02 1770.595
Mar-02 2019.912
Apr-02 2048.398
May-02 2068.763
Jun-02 1994.267
Jul-02 2075.258
Aug-02 2026.56
Sep-02 1734.155
Oct-02 1916.771
Nov-02 1858.345
Dec-02 1996.352
Jan-03 1778.033
Feb-03 1749.489
Mar-03 2066.466
Apr-03 2098.899
May-03 2104.911
Jun-03 2129.671
Jul-03 2223.349
Aug-03 2174.36
Sep-03 1931.406
Oct-03 2121.47
Nov-03 2076.054
Dec-03 2140.677
Jan-04 1831.508
Feb-04 1838.006
Mar-04 2132.446
Month Ridership t t^2 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6
Jan-91 1708.917 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Feb-91 1620.586 2 4 0 1 0 0 0 0
Mar-91 1972.715 3 9 0 0 1 0 0 0
Apr-91 1811.665 4 16 0 0 0 1 0 0
May-91 1974.964 5 25 0 0 0 0 1 0
Jun-91 1862.356 6 36 0 0 0 0 0 1
Jul-91 1939.86 7 49 0 0 0 0 0 0
Aug-91 2013.264 8 64 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sep-91 1595.657 9 81 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oct-91 1724.924 10 100 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nov-91 1675.667 11 121 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec-91 1813.863 12 144 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jan-92 1614.827 13 169 1 0 0 0 0 0
Feb-92 1557.088 14 196 0 1 0 0 0 0
Mar-92 1891.223 15 225 0 0 1 0 0 0
Apr-92 1955.981 16 256 0 0 0 1 0 0
May-92 1884.714 17 289 0 0 0 0 1 0
Jun-92 1623.042 18 324 0 0 0 0 0 1
Jul-92 1903.309 19 361 0 0 0 0 0 0
Aug-92 1996.712 20 400 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sep-92 1703.897 21 441 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oct-92 1810 22 484 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nov-92 1861.601 23 529 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec-92 1875.122 24 576 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jan-93 1705.259 25 625 1 0 0 0 0 0
Feb-93 1618.535 26 676 0 1 0 0 0 0
Mar-93 1836.709 27 729 0 0 1 0 0 0
Apr-93 1957.043 28 784 0 0 0 1 0 0
May-93 1917.185 29 841 0 0 0 0 1 0
Jun-93 1882.398 30 900 0 0 0 0 0 1
Jul-93 1933.009 31 961 0 0 0 0 0 0
Aug-93 1996.167 32 1024 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sep-93 1672.841 33 1089 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oct-93 1752.827 34 1156 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nov-93 1720.377 35 1225 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec-93 1734.292 36 1296 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jan-94 1563.365 37 1369 1 0 0 0 0 0
Feb-94 1573.959 38 1444 0 1 0 0 0 0
Mar-94 1902.639 39 1521 0 0 1 0 0 0
Apr-94 1833.888 40 1600 0 0 0 1 0 0
May-94 1831.049 41 1681 0 0 0 0 1 0
Jun-94 1775.755 42 1764 0 0 0 0 0 1
Jul-94 1867.508 43 1849 0 0 0 0 0 0
Aug-94 1906.608 44 1936 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sep-94 1685.632 45 2025 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oct-94 1778.546 46 2116 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nov-94 1775.995 47 2209 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec-94 1783.35 48 2304 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jan-95 1548.415 49 2401 1 0 0 0 0 0
Feb-95 1496.925 50 2500 0 1 0 0 0 0
Mar-95 1798.316 51 2601 0 0 1 0 0 0
Apr-95 1732.895 52 2704 0 0 0 1 0 0
May-95 1772.345 53 2809 0 0 0 0 1 0
Jun-95 1761.207 54 2916 0 0 0 0 0 1
Jul-95 1791.655 55 3025 0 0 0 0 0 0
Aug-95 1874.82 56 3136 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sep-95 1571.309 57 3249 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oct-95 1646.948 58 3364 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nov-95 1672.631 59 3481 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec-95 1656.845 60 3600 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jan-96 1381.758 61 3721 1 0 0 0 0 0
Feb-96 1360.852 62 3844 0 1 0 0 0 0
Mar-96 1558.575 63 3969 0 0 1 0 0 0
Apr-96 1608.42 64 4096 0 0 0 1 0 0
May-96 1696.696 65 4225 0 0 0 0 1 0
Jun-96 1693.183 66 4356 0 0 0 0 0 1
Jul-96 1835.516 67 4489 0 0 0 0 0 0
Aug-96 1942.573 68 4624 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sep-96 1551.401 69 4761 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oct-96 1686.508 70 4900 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nov-96 1576.204 71 5041 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec-96 1700.433 72 5184 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jan-97 1396.588 73 5329 1 0 0 0 0 0
Feb-97 1371.69 74 5476 0 1 0 0 0 0
Mar-97 1707.522 75 5625 0 0 1 0 0 0
Apr-97 1654.604 76 5776 0 0 0 1 0 0
May-97 1762.903 77 5929 0 0 0 0 1 0
Jun-97 1775.8 78 6084 0 0 0 0 0 1
Jul-97 1934.219 79 6241 0 0 0 0 0 0
Aug-97 2008.055 80 6400 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sep-97 1615.924 81 6561 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oct-97 1773.91 82 6724 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nov-97 1732.368 83 6889 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec-97 1796.626 84 7056 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jan-98 1570.33 85 7225 1 0 0 0 0 0
Feb-98 1412.691 86 7396 0 1 0 0 0 0
Mar-98 1754.641 87 7569 0 0 1 0 0 0
Apr-98 1824.932 88 7744 0 0 0 1 0 0
May-98 1843.289 89 7921 0 0 0 0 1 0
Jun-98 1825.964 90 8100 0 0 0 0 0 1
Jul-98 1968.172 91 8281 0 0 0 0 0 0
Aug-98 1921.645 92 8464 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sep-98 1669.597 93 8649 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oct-98 1791.474 94 8836 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nov-98 1816.714 95 9025 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec-98 1846.754 96 9216 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jan-99 1599.427 97 9409 1 0 0 0 0 0
Feb-99 1548.804 98 9604 0 1 0 0 0 0
Mar-99 1832.333 99 9801 0 0 1 0 0 0
Apr-99 1839.72 100 10000 0 0 0 1 0 0
May-99 1846.498 101 10201 0 0 0 0 1 0
Jun-99 1864.852 102 10404 0 0 0 0 0 1
Jul-99 1965.743 103 10609 0 0 0 0 0 0
Aug-99 1949.002 104 10816 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sep-99 1607.373 105 11025 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oct-99 1803.664 106 11236 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nov-99 1850.309 107 11449 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec-99 1836.435 108 11664 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jan-00 1541.66 109 11881 1 0 0 0 0 0
Feb-00 1616.928 110 12100 0 1 0 0 0 0
Mar-00 1919.538 111 12321 0 0 1 0 0 0
Apr-00 1971.493 112 12544 0 0 0 1 0 0
May-00 1992.301 113 12769 0 0 0 0 1 0
Jun-00 2009.763 114 12996 0 0 0 0 0 1
Jul-00 2053.996 115 13225 0 0 0 0 0 0
Aug-00 2097.471 116 13456 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sep-00 1823.706 117 13689 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oct-00 1976.997 118 13924 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nov-00 1981.408 119 14161 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec-00 2000.153 120 14400 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jan-01 1683.148 121 14641 1 0 0 0 0 0
Feb-01 1663.404 122 14884 0 1 0 0 0 0
Mar-01 2007.928 123 15129 0 0 1 0 0 0
Apr-01 2023.792 124 15376 0 0 0 1 0 0
May-01 2047.008 125 15625 0 0 0 0 1 0
Jun-01 2072.913 126 15876 0 0 0 0 0 1
Jul-01 2126.717 127 16129 0 0 0 0 0 0
Aug-01 2202.638 128 16384 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sep-01 1707.693 129 16641 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oct-01 1950.716 130 16900 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nov-01 1973.614 131 17161 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec-01 1984.729 132 17424 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jan-02 1759.629 133 17689 1 0 0 0 0 0
Feb-02 1770.595 134 17956 0 1 0 0 0 0
Mar-02 2019.912 135 18225 0 0 1 0 0 0
Apr-02 2048.398 136 18496 0 0 0 1 0 0
May-02 2068.763 137 18769 0 0 0 0 1 0
Jun-02 1994.267 138 19044 0 0 0 0 0 1
Jul-02 2075.258 139 19321 0 0 0 0 0 0
Aug-02 2026.56 140 19600 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sep-02 1734.155 141 19881 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oct-02 1916.771 142 20164 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nov-02 1858.345 143 20449 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec-02 1996.352 144 20736 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jan-03 1778.033 145 21025 1 0 0 0 0 0
Feb-03 1749.489 146 21316 0 1 0 0 0 0
Mar-03 2066.466 147 21609 0 0 1 0 0 0
Apr-03 2098.899 148 21904 0 0 0 1 0 0
May-03 2104.911 149 22201 0 0 0 0 1 0
Jun-03 2129.671 150 22500 0 0 0 0 0 1
Jul-03 2223.349 151 22801 0 0 0 0 0 0
Aug-03 2174.36 152 23104 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sep-03 1931.406 153 23409 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oct-03 2121.47 154 23716 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nov-03 2076.054 155 24025 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec-03 2140.677 156 24336 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jan-04 1831.508 157 24649 1 0 0 0 0 0
Feb-04 1838.006 158 24964 0 1 0 0 0 0
Mar-04 2132.446 159 25281 0 0 1 0 0 0
 Quadratic trend + additive seasonality forecast
D7 D8 D9 D10 D11 D12 Method (a)
0 0 0 0 0 0 1660.35
0 0 0 0 0 0 1616.37
0 0 0 0 0 0 1910.61
0 0 0 0 0 0 1912.71
0 0 0 0 0 0 1938.18
0 0 0 0 0 0 1891.05
1 0 0 0 0 0 1989.73
0 1 0 0 0 0 2029.00
0 0 1 0 0 0 1690.20
0 0 0 1 0 0 1823.93
0 0 0 0 1 0 1808.32
0 0 0 0 0 1 1846.68
0 0 0 0 0 0 1604.74
0 0 0 0 0 0 1561.82
0 0 0 0 0 0 1857.10
0 0 0 0 0 0 1860.26
0 0 0 0 0 0 1886.77
0 0 0 0 0 0 1840.69
1 0 0 0 0 0 1940.42
0 1 0 0 0 0 1980.74
0 0 1 0 0 0 1642.99
0 0 0 1 0 0 1777.77
0 0 0 0 1 0 1763.21
0 0 0 0 0 1 1802.63
0 0 0 0 0 0 1561.74
0 0 0 0 0 0 1519.86
0 0 0 0 0 0 1816.20
0 0 0 0 0 0 1820.40
0 0 0 0 0 0 1847.97
0 0 0 0 0 0 1802.94
1 0 0 0 0 0 1903.72
0 1 0 0 0 0 1945.09
0 0 1 0 0 0 1608.39
0 0 0 1 0 0 1744.22
0 0 0 0 1 0 1730.71
0 0 0 0 0 1 1771.17
0 0 0 0 0 0 1531.34
0 0 0 0 0 0 1490.51
0 0 0 0 0 0 1787.89
0 0 0 0 0 0 1793.15
0 0 0 0 0 0 1821.76
0 0 0 0 0 0 1777.79
1 0 0 0 0 0 1879.62
0 1 0 0 0 0 1922.04
0 0 1 0 0 0 1586.38
0 0 0 1 0 0 1723.27
0 0 0 0 1 0 1710.80
0 0 0 0 0 1 1752.32
0 0 0 0 0 0 1513.53
0 0 0 0 0 0 1473.76
0 0 0 0 0 0 1772.19
0 0 0 0 0 0 1778.50
0 0 0 0 0 0 1808.16
0 0 0 0 0 0 1765.24
1 0 0 0 0 0 1868.12
0 1 0 0 0 0 1911.59
0 0 1 0 0 0 1576.98
0 0 0 1 0 0 1714.92
0 0 0 0 1 0 1703.50
0 0 0 0 0 1 1746.07
0 0 0 0 0 0 1508.33
0 0 0 0 0 0 1469.61
0 0 0 0 0 0 1769.09
0 0 0 0 0 0 1776.45
0 0 0 0 0 0 1807.16
0 0 0 0 0 0 1765.29
1 0 0 0 0 0 1869.22
0 1 0 0 0 0 1913.74
0 0 1 0 0 0 1580.19
0 0 0 1 0 0 1719.17
0 0 0 0 1 0 1708.81
0 0 0 0 0 1 1752.42
0 0 0 0 0 0 1515.74
0 0 0 0 0 0 1478.06
0 0 0 0 0 0 1778.60
0 0 0 0 0 0 1787.00
0 0 0 0 0 0 1818.77
0 0 0 0 0 0 1777.94
1 0 0 0 0 0 1882.92
0 1 0 0 0 0 1928.49
0 0 1 0 0 0 1595.99
0 0 0 1 0 0 1736.02
0 0 0 0 1 0 1726.71
0 0 0 0 0 1 1771.38
0 0 0 0 0 0 1535.74
0 0 0 0 0 0 1499.11
0 0 0 0 0 0 1800.70
0 0 0 0 0 0 1810.16
0 0 0 0 0 0 1842.97
0 0 0 0 0 0 1803.20
1 0 0 0 0 0 1909.23
0 1 0 0 0 0 1955.85
0 0 1 0 0 0 1624.40
0 0 0 1 0 0 1765.48
0 0 0 0 1 0 1757.22
0 0 0 0 0 1 1802.93
0 0 0 0 0 0 1568.35
0 0 0 0 0 0 1532.77
0 0 0 0 0 0 1835.41
0 0 0 0 0 0 1845.91
0 0 0 0 0 0 1879.78
0 0 0 0 0 0 1841.05
1 0 0 0 0 0 1948.13
0 1 0 0 0 0 1995.80
0 0 1 0 0 0 1665.40
0 0 0 1 0 0 1807.54
0 0 0 0 1 0 1800.32
0 0 0 0 0 1 1847.09
0 0 0 0 0 0 1613.56
0 0 0 0 0 0 1579.03
0 0 0 0 0 0 1882.72
0 0 0 0 0 0 1894.27
0 0 0 0 0 0 1929.19
0 0 0 0 0 0 1891.51
1 0 0 0 0 0 1999.64
0 1 0 0 0 0 2048.36
0 0 1 0 0 0 1719.01
0 0 0 1 0 0 1862.20
0 0 0 0 1 0 1856.03
0 0 0 0 0 1 1903.85
0 0 0 0 0 0 1671.37
0 0 0 0 0 0 1637.89
0 0 0 0 0 0 1942.63
0 0 0 0 0 0 1955.23
0 0 0 0 0 0 1991.20
0 0 0 0 0 0 1954.57
1 0 0 0 0 0 2063.75
0 1 0 0 0 0 2113.52
0 0 1 0 0 0 1785.22
0 0 0 1 0 0 1929.46
0 0 0 0 1 0 1924.35
0 0 0 0 0 1 1973.21
0 0 0 0 0 0 1741.78
0 0 0 0 0 0 1709.35
0 0 0 0 0 0 2015.14
0 0 0 0 0 0 2028.79
0 0 0 0 0 0 2065.81
0 0 0 0 0 0 2030.23
1 0 0 0 0 0 2140.47
0 1 0 0 0 0 2191.29
0 0 1 0 0 0 1864.04
0 0 0 1 0 0 2009.32
0 0 0 0 1 0 2005.26
0 0 0 0 0 1 2055.18
0 0 0 0 0 0 1824.79
0 0 0 0 0 0 1793.41
0 0 0 0 0 0 2100.25
0 0 0 0 0 0 2114.96
0 0 0 0 0 0 2153.02
0 0 0 0 0 0 2118.50
1 0 0 0 0 0 2229.78
0 1 0 0 0 0 2281.65
0 0 1 0 0 0 1955.45
0 0 0 1 0 0 2101.79
0 0 0 0 1 0 2098.77
0 0 0 0 0 1 2149.74
0 0 0 0 0 0 1920.41
0 0 0 0 0 0 1890.08
0 0 0 0 0 0 2197.97
d + additive seasonality forecast
Method (b) Error ABS Error % Error Sq.Error
1660.35 48.57 48.57 0.0284 2358.61 AE
1617.00 4.21 4.21 0.0026 17.75 MAE
1910.00 62.11 62.11 0.0315 3857.26 MAPE
1911.00 -101.05 101.05 0.0558 10210.65 MSE
1937.00 36.79 36.79 0.0186 1353.27 RMSE
1890.00 -28.69 28.69 0.0154 823.35
1988.00 -49.87 49.87 0.0257 2486.96
2028.00 -15.74 15.74 0.0078 247.61
1693.00 -94.54 94.54 0.0592 8937.66
1823.00 -99.00 99.00 0.0574 9801.93
1806.00 -132.65 132.65 0.0792 17595.53
1852.00 -32.82 32.82 0.0181 1077.13
1603.00 10.08 10.08 0.0062 101.66
1562.00 -4.73 4.73 0.0030 22.35
1856.00 34.12 34.12 0.0180 1164.29
1859.00 95.72 95.72 0.0489 9163.26
1886.00 -2.06 2.06 0.0011 4.23
1840.00 -217.65 217.65 0.1341 47372.28
1939.00 -37.11 37.11 0.0195 1377.46
1980.00 15.97 15.97 0.0080 254.99
1646.00 60.91 60.91 0.0357 3709.62
1777.00 32.23 32.23 0.0178 1038.58
1761.00 98.39 98.39 0.0529 9680.87
1808.00 72.49 72.49 0.0387 5255.48
1561.00 143.52 143.52 0.0842 20597.96
1521.00 98.67 98.67 0.0610 9736.60
1816.00 20.51 20.51 0.0112 420.77
1819.00 136.64 136.64 0.0698 18670.95
1847.00 69.22 69.22 0.0361 4791.26
1803.00 79.46 79.46 0.0422 6313.69
1902.00 29.29 29.29 0.0152 857.91
1945.00 51.08 51.08 0.0256 2608.92
1611.00 64.45 64.45 0.0385 4154.40
1744.00 8.61 8.61 0.0049 74.10
1729.00 -10.33 10.33 0.0060 106.69
1776.00 -36.88 36.88 0.0213 1360.27
1530.00 32.03 32.03 0.0205 1025.87
1491.00 83.45 83.45 0.0530 6964.13
2500
1788.00 114.75 114.75 0.0603 13166.56
1792.00 40.74 40.74 0.0222 1659.71
1821.00 9.29 9.29 0.0051 86.22
1778.00 -2.03 2.03 0.0011 4.13 2000
1878.00 -12.11 12.11 0.0065 146.62

1500
 2000

1922.00 -15.43 15.43 0.0081 238.06

1589.00 99.25 99.25 0.0589 9850.11 1500
1723.00 55.28 55.28 0.0311 3055.74
1709.00 65.19 65.19 0.0367 4249.84
1758.00 31.03 31.03 0.0174 962.72
1000
1513.00 34.88 34.88 0.0225 1216.66
1475.00 23.17 23.17 0.0155 536.79
1772.00 26.12 26.12 0.0145 682.45
500
1777.00 -45.60 45.60 0.0263 2079.59
1808.00 -35.82 35.82 0.0202 1282.90
1765.00 -4.03 4.03 0.0023 16.23
1867.00 -76.46 76.46 0.0427 5846.29 0
1911.00 -36.77 36.77 0.0196 1351.80 9 9 2 4 5
323 335 348 360 372 38
3 3 3 3 3 3
1580.00 -5.68 5.68 0.0036 32.21
1715.00 -67.97 67.97 0.0413 4619.81
1702.00 -30.87 30.87 0.0185 953.16
1752.00 -89.23 89.23 0.0539 7961.55
1508.00 -126.58 126.58 0.0916 16021.69 200
1471.00 -108.75 108.75 0.0799 11827.64
150
1769.00 -210.52 210.52 0.1351 44317.84
1775.00 -168.03 168.03 0.1045 28233.55 100
1807.00 -110.47 110.47 0.0651 12203.11
1765.00 -72.10 72.10 0.0426 5199.04 50
1868.00 -33.70 33.70 0.0184 1135.79
0
1913.00 28.83 28.83 0.0148 831.43 9 9 2 4 5
1583.00 -28.78 28.78 0.0186 828.57 23 35 48 60 72 8
33 33 33 33 33 33
-50
1719.00 -32.66 32.66 0.0194 1066.75
1707.00 -132.60 132.60 0.0841 17583.39 -100

1758.00 -51.99 51.99 0.0306 2703.14

-150
1515.00 -119.15 119.15 0.0853 14196.52
1479.00 -106.37 106.37 0.0775 11314.46 -200
1778.00 -71.07 71.07 0.0416 5051.47
1786.00 -132.40 132.40 0.0800 17529.03 -250

1818.00 -55.86 55.86 0.0317 3120.75

1778.00 -2.14 2.14 0.0012 4.58
1881.00 51.30 51.30 0.0265 2631.51
1928.00 79.56 79.56 0.0396 6330.29
1599.00 19.93 19.93 0.0123 397.39
1736.00 37.89 37.89 0.0214 1435.43
1725.00 5.66 5.66 0.0033 32.01
1777.00 25.25 25.25 0.0141 637.42
1535.00 34.59 34.59 0.0220 1196.37
1500.00 -86.42 86.42 0.0612 7468.91
1800.00 -46.06 46.06 0.0262 2121.46
1809.00 14.78 14.78 0.0081 218.33
1842.00 0.32 0.32 0.0002 0.10
1803.00 22.77 22.77 0.0125 518.40
1908.00 58.95 58.95 0.0299 3474.64
1955.00 -34.20 34.20 0.0178 1169.80
1627.00 45.20 45.20 0.0271 2043.22
1765.00 26.00 26.00 0.0145 675.76
1755.00 59.50 59.50 0.0328 3539.99
1808.00 43.82 43.82 0.0237 1920.12
1567.00 31.08 31.08 0.0194 965.93
1534.00 16.03 16.03 0.0104 257.08
1835.00 -3.07 3.07 0.0017 9.45
1845.00 -6.19 6.19 0.0034 38.35
1879.00 -33.28 33.28 0.0180 1107.58
1841.00 23.80 23.80 0.0128 566.42
1946.00 17.61 17.61 0.0090 310.11
1995.00 -46.80 46.80 0.0240 2190.48
1668.00 -58.03 58.03 0.0361 3367.42
1807.00 -3.87 3.87 0.0021 14.99
1798.00 49.99 49.99 0.0270 2498.51
1852.00 -10.66 10.66 0.0058 113.59
1612.00 -71.90 71.90 0.0466 5168.98
1580.00 37.90 37.90 0.0234 1436.38
1882.00 36.82 36.82 0.0192 1355.92
1893.00 77.22 77.22 0.0392 5963.21
1928.00 63.11 63.11 0.0317 3983.37
1891.00 118.25 118.25 0.0588 13983.45
1998.00 54.35 54.35 0.0265 2954.35
2048.00 49.11 49.11 0.0234 2411.53
1721.00 104.69 104.69 0.0574 10960.88
1861.00 114.80 114.80 0.0581 13179.35
1854.00 125.37 125.37 0.0633 15718.76
1909.00 96.30 96.30 0.0481 9273.78
1670.00 11.78 11.78 0.0070 138.82
1638.00 25.52 25.52 0.0153 651.04
1942.00 65.30 65.30 0.0325 4264.43
1953.00 68.56 68.56 0.0339 4700.53
1990.00 55.81 55.81 0.0273 3114.80
1954.00 118.34 118.34 0.0571 14004.57
2062.00 62.96 62.96 0.0296 3964.47
2112.00 89.11 89.11 0.0405 7941.17
1787.00 -77.53 77.53 0.0454 6010.90
1928.00 21.26 21.26 0.0109 451.94
1922.00 49.27 49.27 0.0250 2427.43
1978.00 11.51 11.51 0.0058 132.59
1740.00 17.85 17.85 0.0101 318.68
1710.00 61.24 61.24 0.0346 3750.88
2014.00 4.77 4.77 0.0024 22.79
2027.00 19.60 19.60 0.0096 384.32
2064.00 2.95 2.95 0.0014 8.72
2029.00 -35.97 35.97 0.0180 1293.68
2138.00 -65.21 65.21 0.0314 4252.06
2190.00 -164.73 164.73 0.0813 27135.23
1866.00 -129.88 129.88 0.0749 16869.11
2008.00 -92.55 92.55 0.0483 8565.38
2002.00 -146.91 146.91 0.0791 21583.59
2059.00 -58.83 58.83 0.0295 3460.48
1823.00 -46.76 46.76 0.0263 2186.33
1793.00 -43.93 43.93 0.0251 1929.45
2099.00 -33.79 33.79 0.0163 1141.47
2112.00 -16.06 16.06 0.0077 257.90
2151.00 -48.11 48.11 0.0229 2314.91
2117.00 11.17 11.17 0.0052 124.81
2227.00 -6.43 6.43 0.0029 41.36
2280.00 -107.29 107.29 0.0493 11511.71
1957.00 -24.05 24.05 0.0124 578.17
2100.00 19.68 19.68 0.0093 387.48
2095.00 -22.72 22.72 0.0109 516.19
2154.00 -9.07 9.07 0.0042 82.20
1918.00 -88.90 88.90 0.0485 7903.01
1890.00 -52.07 52.07 0.0283 2711.73
2196.00 -65.52 65.52 0.0307 4293.09
 Training data Validation data
0 -34
56 39
3% 2%
5055 2560
71 51 best model

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.908471
R Square 0.825319
Adjusted R Square 0.808245
Standard Error 74.7482
Observations 147

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 13 3510988 270076 48.33754 6.89E-44
Residual 133 743110 5587.293
Total 146 4254098

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 1903.34 28.30488 67.24424 1.5E-104 1847.354 1959.326 1847.354 1959.326
t -5.24652 0.586749 -8.94168 2.83E-15 -6.40709 -4.08595 -6.40709 -4.08595
t^2 0.043757 0.003841 11.39285 2.09E-21 0.03616 0.051353 0.03616 0.051353
D1 -237.786 29.95208 -7.93887 7.52E-13 -297.03 -178.542 -297.03 -178.542
D2 -276.649 29.94876 -9.23742 5.29E-16 -335.887 -217.412 -335.887 -217.412
D3 22.6139 29.94642 0.755145 0.451497 -36.619 81.84677 -36.619 81.84677
D4 29.65873 30.53801 0.971207 0.333208 -30.7443 90.06174 -30.7443 90.06174
D5 59.9759 30.53283 1.964309 0.051579 -0.41685 120.3687 -0.41685 120.3687
D6 17.61398 30.52834 0.576971 0.564934 -42.7699 77.99786 -42.7699 77.99786
D7 120.971 30.52455 3.963071 0.00012 60.59459 181.3473 60.59459 181.3473
D8 164.8313 30.52144 5.400511 2.96E-07 104.4611 225.2016 104.4611 225.2016
D9 -169.469 30.519 -5.55291 1.47E-07 -229.835 -109.104 -229.835 -109.104
D10 -31.3218 30.51725 -1.02636 0.306584 -91.6837 29.04017 -91.6837 29.04017
D11 -42.6077 30.51618 -1.39623 0.164971 -102.967 17.75216 -102.967 17.75216

2500

2000

1500
2000

1500

1000

500 Both trend and seasonality is captured.

Anything left besides the error term?

0
9 9 2 4 5 8 0 0 3 5 5 8 0 0 3 5 6 9 1 1 4 6 6 9 1 1 4 6 7 0 2 2 5 8 8
323 335 348 360 372 384 397 409 421 433 445 457 470 482 494 506 518 530 543 555 567 579 591 603 616 628 640 652 664 677 689 701 713 725 737
3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Forecasting error
200

150

100

50

0
9 9 2 4 5 8 0 0 3 5 5 8 0 0 3 5 6 9 1 1 4 6 6 9 1 1 4 6 7 0 2 2 5 8
23 35 48 60 72 84 97 09 21 33 45 57 70 82 94 06 18 30 43 55 67 79 91 03 16 28 40 52 64 77 89 01 13 25 37
33 33 33 33 33 33 33 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 37 37 37 37
-50

-100

-150

-200

-250
 Month Ridership Q. trend + seasonality A forecast Error Lag1 Lag2
Jan-91 1708.917 1660.35 48.57
Feb-91 1620.586 1616.37 4.21 48.57
Mar-91 1972.715 1910.61 62.11 4.21 48.57
Apr-91 1811.665 1912.71 -101.05 62.11 4.21
May-91 1974.964 1938.18 36.79 -101.05 62.11
Jun-91 1862.356 1891.05 -28.69 36.79 -101.05
Jul-91 1939.86 1989.73 -49.87 -28.69 36.79
Aug-91 2013.264 2029.00 -15.74 -49.87 -28.69
Sep-91 1595.657 1690.20 -94.54 -15.74 -49.87
Oct-91 1724.924 1823.93 -99.00 -94.54 -15.74
Nov-91 1675.667 1808.32 -132.65 -99.00 -94.54
Dec-91 1813.863 1846.68 -32.82 -132.65 -99.00
Jan-92 1614.827 1604.74 10.08 -32.82 -132.65
Feb-92 1557.088 1561.82 -4.73 10.08 -32.82
Mar-92 1891.223 1857.10 34.12 -4.73 10.08
Apr-92 1955.981 1860.26 95.72 34.12 -4.73
May-92 1884.714 1886.77 -2.06 95.72 34.12
Jun-92 1623.042 1840.69 -217.65 -2.06 95.72
Jul-92 1903.309 1940.42 -37.11 -217.65 -2.06
Aug-92 1996.712 1980.74 15.97 -37.11 -217.65
Sep-92 1703.897 1642.99 60.91 15.97 -37.11
Upper 95.0% Oct-92 1810 1777.77 32.23 60.91 15.97
Nov-92 1861.601 1763.21 98.39 32.23 60.91
Dec-92 1875.122 1802.63 72.49 98.39 32.23
Jan-93 1705.259 1561.74 143.52 72.49 98.39
Feb-93 1618.535 1519.86 98.67 143.52 72.49
Mar-93 1836.709 1816.20 20.51 98.67 143.52
Apr-93 1957.043 1820.40 136.64 20.51 98.67
May-93 1917.185 1847.97 69.22 136.64 20.51
Jun-93 1882.398 1802.94 79.46 69.22 136.64
Jul-93 1933.009 1903.72 29.29 79.46 69.22
Aug-93 1996.167 1945.09 51.08 29.29 79.46
Sep-93 1672.841 1608.39 64.45 51.08 29.29
Oct-93 1752.827 1744.22 8.61 64.45 51.08
Nov-93 1720.377 1730.71 -10.33 8.61 64.45
Dec-93 1734.292 1771.17 -36.88 -10.33 8.61
Jan-94 1563.365 1531.34 32.03 -36.88 -10.33
Feb-94 1573.959 1490.51 83.45 32.03 -36.88
Mar-94 1902.639 1787.89 114.75 83.45 32.03
Apr-94 1833.888 1793.15 40.74 114.75 83.45
May-94 1831.049 1821.76 9.29 40.74 114.75
Jun-94 1775.755 1777.79 -2.03 9.29 40.74
Jul-94 1867.508 1879.62 -12.11 -2.03 9.29
 Aug-94 1906.608 1922.04 -15.43 -12.11 -2.03
Sep-94 1685.632 1586.38 99.25 -15.43 -12.11
Oct-94 1778.546 1723.27 55.28 99.25 -15.43
Nov-94 1775.995 1710.80 65.19 55.28 99.25
Dec-94 1783.35 1752.32 31.03 65.19 55.28
Jan-95 1548.415 1513.53 34.88 31.03 65.19
Feb-95 1496.925 1473.76 23.17 34.88 31.03
Mar-95 1798.316 1772.19 26.12 23.17 34.88
Apr-95 1732.895 1778.50 -45.60 26.12 23.17
May-95 1772.345 1808.16 -35.82 -45.60 26.12
Jun-95 1761.207 1765.24 -4.03 -35.82 -45.60
Jul-95 1791.655 1868.12 -76.46 -4.03 -35.82
4 26 47 70 92 12 35 58 78 01 24 44 67 90
0
64 365 366 367 368 370 371 372 373 375 376Aug-95
7 8 1874.82
9 1911.59 -36.77 -76.46 -4.03
37 37 37
Sep-95 1571.309 1576.98 -5.68 -36.77 -76.46
Oct-95 1646.948 1714.92 -67.97 -5.68 -36.77
Nov-95 1672.631 1703.50 -30.87 -67.97 -5.68
Dec-95 1656.845 1746.07 -89.23 -30.87 -67.97
Jan-96 1381.758 1508.33 -126.58 -89.23 -30.87
Feb-96 1360.852 1469.61 -108.75 -126.58 -89.23
Mar-96 1558.575 1769.09 -210.52 -108.75 -126.58
Apr-96 1608.42 1776.45 -168.03 -210.52 -108.75
May-96 1696.696 1807.16 -110.47 -168.03 -210.52
Jun-96 1693.183 1765.29 -72.10 -110.47 -168.03
Jul-96 1835.516 1869.22 -33.70 -72.10 -110.47
Aug-96 1942.573 1913.74 28.83 -33.70 -72.10
04 26 47 70 92 12 35 58 78 01 24 744 867 990
64 365 366 367 368 370 371 372 373 375 376Sep-96
37 37 1551.401
37 1580.19 -28.78 28.83 -33.70
Oct-96 1686.508 1719.17 -32.66 -28.78 28.83
Nov-96 1576.204 1708.81 -132.60 -32.66 -28.78
Dec-96 1700.433 1752.42 -51.99 -132.60 -32.66
Jan-97 1396.588 1515.74 -119.15 -51.99 -132.60
Feb-97 1371.69 1478.06 -106.37 -119.15 -51.99
Mar-97 1707.522 1778.60 -71.07 -106.37 -119.15
Apr-97 1654.604 1787.00 -132.40 -71.07 -106.37
May-97 1762.903 1818.77 -55.86 -132.40 -71.07
Jun-97 1775.8 1777.94 -2.14 -55.86 -132.40
Jul-97 1934.219 1882.92 51.30 -2.14 -55.86
Aug-97 2008.055 1928.49 79.56 51.30 -2.14
Sep-97 1615.924 1595.99 19.93 79.56 51.30
Oct-97 1773.91 1736.02 37.89 19.93 79.56
Nov-97 1732.368 1726.71 5.66 37.89 19.93
Dec-97 1796.626 1771.38 25.25 5.66 37.89
Jan-98 1570.33 1535.74 34.59 25.25 5.66
Feb-98 1412.691 1499.11 -86.42 34.59 25.25
Mar-98 1754.641 1800.70 -46.06 -86.42 34.59
Apr-98 1824.932 1810.16 14.78 -46.06 -86.42
May-98 1843.289 1842.97 0.32 14.78 -46.06
Jun-98 1825.964 1803.20 22.77 0.32 14.78
Jul-98 1968.172 1909.23 58.95 22.77 0.32
Aug-98 1921.645 1955.85 -34.20 58.95 22.77
Sep-98 1669.597 1624.40 45.20 -34.20 58.95
Oct-98 1791.474 1765.48 26.00 45.20 -34.20
Nov-98 1816.714 1757.22 59.50 26.00 45.20
Dec-98 1846.754 1802.93 43.82 59.50 26.00
Jan-99 1599.427 1568.35 31.08 43.82 59.50
Feb-99 1548.804 1532.77 16.03 31.08 43.82
Mar-99 1832.333 1835.41 -3.07 16.03 31.08
Apr-99 1839.72 1845.91 -6.19 -3.07 16.03
May-99 1846.498 1879.78 -33.28 -6.19 -3.07
Jun-99 1864.852 1841.05 23.80 -33.28 -6.19
Jul-99 1965.743 1948.13 17.61 23.80 -33.28
Aug-99 1949.002 1995.80 -46.80 17.61 23.80
Sep-99 1607.373 1665.40 -58.03 -46.80 17.61
Oct-99 1803.664 1807.54 -3.87 -58.03 -46.80
Nov-99 1850.309 1800.32 49.99 -3.87 -58.03
Dec-99 1836.435 1847.09 -10.66 49.99 -3.87
Jan-00 1541.66 1613.56 -71.90 -10.66 49.99
Feb-00 1616.928 1579.03 37.90 -71.90 -10.66
Mar-00 1919.538 1882.72 36.82 37.90 -71.90
Apr-00 1971.493 1894.27 77.22 36.82 37.90
May-00 1992.301 1929.19 63.11 77.22 36.82
Jun-00 2009.763 1891.51 118.25 63.11 77.22
Jul-00 2053.996 1999.64 54.35 118.25 63.11
Aug-00 2097.471 2048.36 49.11 54.35 118.25
Sep-00 1823.706 1719.01 104.69 49.11 54.35
Oct-00 1976.997 1862.20 114.80 104.69 49.11
Nov-00 1981.408 1856.03 125.37 114.80 104.69
Dec-00 2000.153 1903.85 96.30 125.37 114.80
Jan-01 1683.148 1671.37 11.78 96.30 125.37
Feb-01 1663.404 1637.89 25.52 11.78 96.30
Mar-01 2007.928 1942.63 65.30 25.52 11.78
Apr-01 2023.792 1955.23 68.56 65.30 25.52
May-01 2047.008 1991.20 55.81 68.56 65.30
Jun-01 2072.913 1954.57 118.34 55.81 68.56
Jul-01 2126.717 2063.75 62.96 118.34 55.81
Aug-01 2202.638 2113.52 89.11 62.96 118.34
Sep-01 1707.693 1785.22 -77.53 89.11 62.96
Oct-01 1950.716 1929.46 21.26 -77.53 89.11
Nov-01 1973.614 1924.35 49.27 21.26 -77.53
Dec-01 1984.729 1973.21 11.51 49.27 21.26
Jan-02 1759.629 1741.78 17.85 11.51 49.27
Feb-02 1770.595 1709.35 61.24 17.85 11.51
Mar-02 2019.912 2015.14 4.77 61.24 17.85
Apr-02 2048.398 2028.79 19.60 4.77 61.24
May-02 2068.763 2065.81 2.95 19.60 4.77
Jun-02 1994.267 2030.23 -35.97 2.95 19.60
Jul-02 2075.258 2140.47 -65.21 -35.97 2.95
Aug-02 2026.56 2191.29 -164.73 -65.21 -35.97
Sep-02 1734.155 1864.04 -129.88 -164.73 -65.21
Oct-02 1916.771 2009.32 -92.55 -129.88 -164.73
Nov-02 1858.345 2005.26 -146.91 -92.55 -129.88
Dec-02 1996.352 2055.18 -58.83 -146.91 -92.55
Jan-03 1778.033 1824.79 -46.76 -58.83 -146.91
Feb-03 1749.489 1793.41 -43.93 -46.76 -58.83
Mar-03 2066.466 2100.25 -33.79 -43.93 -46.76
Apr-03 2098.899 2114.96 -16.06 -33.79 -43.93
May-03 2104.911 2153.02 -48.11 -16.06 -33.79
Jun-03 2129.671 2118.50 11.17 -48.11 -16.06
Jul-03 2223.349 2229.78 -6.43 11.17 -48.11
Aug-03 2174.36 2281.65 -107.29 -6.43 11.17
Sep-03 1931.406 1955.45 -24.05 -107.29 -6.43
Oct-03 2121.47 2101.79 19.68 -24.05 -107.29
Nov-03 2076.054 2098.77 -22.72 19.68 -24.05
Dec-03 2140.677 2149.74 -9.07 -22.72 19.68
Jan-04 1831.508 1920.41 -88.90 -9.07 -22.72
Feb-04 1838.006 1890.08 -52.07 -88.90 -9.07
Mar-04 2132.446 2197.97 -65.52 -52.07 -88.90
Lag3

Lag Autocorrelation
48.57 1 0.6404494579
4.21 2 0.5112432966
62.11 3 0.4100213023
-101.05
36.79
-28.69
-49.87
-15.74
-94.54
-99.00
-132.65
-32.82
10.08
-4.73
34.12
95.72
-2.06
-217.65
-37.11
15.97
60.91
32.23
98.39
72.49
143.52
98.67
20.51
136.64
69.22
79.46
29.29
51.08
64.45
8.61
-10.33
-36.88
32.03
83.45
114.75
40.74
 9.29
-2.03
-12.11
-15.43
99.25
55.28
65.19
31.03
34.88
23.17
26.12
-45.60
-35.82
-4.03
-76.46
-36.77
-5.68
-67.97
-30.87
-89.23
-126.58
-108.75
-210.52
-168.03
-110.47
-72.10
-33.70
28.83
-28.78
-32.66
-132.60
-51.99
-119.15
-106.37
-71.07
-132.40
-55.86
-2.14
51.30
79.56
19.93
37.89
5.66
25.25
34.59
-86.42
-46.06
14.78
0.32
22.77
58.95
-34.20
45.20
26.00
59.50
43.82
31.08
16.03
-3.07
-6.19
-33.28
23.80
17.61
-46.80
-58.03
-3.87
49.99
-10.66
-71.90
37.90
36.82
77.22
63.11
118.25
54.35
49.11
104.69
114.80
125.37
96.30
11.78
25.52
65.30
68.56
55.81
118.34
62.96
89.11
-77.53
21.26
 49.27
11.51
17.85
61.24
4.77
19.60
2.95
-35.97
-65.21
-164.73
-129.88
-92.55
-146.91
-58.83
-46.76
-43.93
-33.79
-16.06
-48.11
11.17
-6.43
-107.29
-24.05
19.68
-22.72
-9.07
 detrending No trend, no seasonality deseasonalizing
Month Ridership Lag (Ridership) d(1) d(1), d(12) d(12)
Jan-91 1708.917
Feb-91 1620.586 1708.917 -88.331
Mar-91 1972.715 1620.586 352.129
Apr-91 1811.665 1972.715 -161.05
May-91 1974.964 1811.665 163.299
Jun-91 1862.356 1974.964 -112.608
Jul-91 1939.86 1862.356 77.504
Aug-91 2013.264 1939.86 73.404
Sep-91 1595.657 2013.264 -417.607
Oct-91 1724.924 1595.657 129.267
Nov-91 1675.667 1724.924 -49.257
Dec-91 1813.863 1675.667 138.196
Jan-92 1614.827 1813.863 -199.036 -94.09
Feb-92 1557.088 1614.827 -57.739 30.592 -63.498
Mar-92 1891.223 1557.088 334.135 -17.994 -81.492
Apr-92 1955.981 1891.223 64.758 225.808 144.316
May-92 1884.714 1955.981 -71.267 -234.566 -90.25
Jun-92 1623.042 1884.714 -261.672 -149.064 -239.314
Jul-92 1903.309 1623.042 280.267 202.763 -36.551
Aug-92 1996.712 1903.309 93.403 19.999 -16.552
Sep-92 1703.897 1996.712 -292.815 124.792 108.24
Oct-92 1810 1703.897 106.103 -23.164 85.076
Nov-92 1861.601 1810 51.601 100.858 185.934
Dec-92 1875.122 1861.601 13.521 -124.675 61.259
Jan-93 1705.259 1875.122 -169.863 29.173 90.432
Feb-93 1618.535 1705.259 -86.724 -28.985 61.447
Mar-93 1836.709 1618.535 218.174 -115.961 -54.514
Apr-93 1957.043 1836.709 120.334 55.576 1.062
May-93 1917.185 1957.043 -39.858 31.409 32.471
Jun-93 1882.398 1917.185 -34.787 226.885 259.356
Jul-93 1933.009 1882.398 50.611 -229.656 29.7
Aug-93 1996.167 1933.009 63.158 -30.245 -0.545
Sep-93 1672.841 1996.167 -323.326 -30.511 -31.056
Oct-93 1752.827 1672.841 79.986 -26.117 -57.173
Nov-93 1720.377 1752.827 -32.45 -84.051 -141.224
Dec-93 1734.292 1720.377 13.915 0.394 -140.83
Jan-94 1563.365 1734.292 -170.927 -1.064 -141.894
Feb-94 1573.959 1563.365 10.594 97.318 -44.576
Mar-94 1902.639 1573.959 328.68 110.506 65.93
Apr-94 1833.888 1902.639 -68.751 -189.085 -123.155
May-94 1831.049 1833.888 -2.839 37.019 -86.136
Jun-94 1775.755 1831.049 -55.294 -20.507 -106.643
Jul-94 1867.508 1775.755 91.753 41.142 -65.501
Aug-94 1906.608 1867.508 39.1 -24.058 -89.559
Sep-94 1685.632 1906.608 -220.976 102.35 12.791
Oct-94 1778.546 1685.632 92.914 12.928 25.719
Nov-94 1775.995 1778.546 -2.551 29.899 55.618
Dec-94 1783.35 1775.995 7.355 -6.56 49.058
Jan-95 1548.415 1783.35 -234.935 -64.008 -14.95
Feb-95 1496.925 1548.415 -51.49 -62.084 -77.034
Mar-95 1798.316 1496.925 301.391 -27.289 -104.323
Apr-95 1732.895 1798.316 -65.421 3.33 -100.993
May-95 1772.345 1732.895 39.45 42.289 -58.704
Jun-95 1761.207 1772.345 -11.138 44.156 -14.548
Jul-95 1791.655 1761.207 30.448 -61.305 -75.853
Aug-95 1874.82 1791.655 83.165 44.065 -31.788
Sep-95 1571.309 1874.82 -303.511 -82.535 -114.323
Oct-95 1646.948 1571.309 75.639 -17.275 -131.598
Nov-95 1672.631 1646.948 25.683 28.234 -103.364
Dec-95 1656.845 1672.631 -15.786 -23.141 -126.505
Jan-96 1381.758 1656.845 -275.087 -40.152 -166.657
Feb-96 1360.852 1381.758 -20.906 30.584 -136.073
Mar-96 1558.575 1360.852 197.723 -103.668 -239.741
Apr-96 1608.42 1558.575 49.845 115.266 -124.475
May-96 1696.696 1608.42 88.276 48.826 -75.649
Jun-96 1693.183 1696.696 -3.513 7.625 -68.024
Jul-96 1835.516 1693.183 142.333 111.885 43.861
Aug-96 1942.573 1835.516 107.057 23.892 67.753
Sep-96 1551.401 1942.573 -391.172 -87.661 -19.908
Oct-96 1686.508 1551.401 135.107 59.468 39.56
Nov-96 1576.204 1686.508 -110.304 -135.987 -96.427
Dec-96 1700.433 1576.204 124.229 140.015 43.588
Jan-97 1396.588 1700.433 -303.845 -28.758 14.83
Feb-97 1371.69 1396.588 -24.898 -3.992 10.838
Mar-97 1707.522 1371.69 335.832 138.109 148.947
Apr-97 1654.604 1707.522 -52.918 -102.763 46.184
May-97 1762.903 1654.604 108.299 20.023 66.207
Jun-97 1775.8 1762.903 12.897 16.41 82.617
Jul-97 1934.219 1775.8 158.419 16.086 98.703
Aug-97 2008.055 1934.219 73.836 -33.221 65.482
Sep-97 1615.924 2008.055 -392.131 -0.959 64.523
Oct-97 1773.91 1615.924 157.986 22.879 87.402
Nov-97 1732.368 1773.91 -41.542 68.762 156.164
Dec-97 1796.626 1732.368 64.258 -59.971 96.193
Jan-98 1570.33 1796.626 -226.296 77.549 173.742
Feb-98 1412.691 1570.33 -157.639 -132.741 41.001
Mar-98 1754.641 1412.691 341.95 6.118 47.119
Apr-98 1824.932 1754.641 70.291 123.209 170.328
May-98 1843.289 1824.932 18.357 -89.942 80.386
Jun-98 1825.964 1843.289 -17.325 -30.222 50.164
Jul-98 1968.172 1825.964 142.208 -16.211 33.953
Aug-98 1921.645 1968.172 -46.527 -120.363 -86.41
Sep-98 1669.597 1921.645 -252.048 140.083 53.673
Oct-98 1791.474 1669.597 121.877 -36.109 17.564
Nov-98 1816.714 1791.474 25.24 66.782 84.346
Dec-98 1846.754 1816.714 30.04 -34.218 50.128
Jan-99 1599.427 1846.754 -247.327 -21.031 29.097
Feb-99 1548.804 1599.427 -50.623 107.016 136.113
Mar-99 1832.333 1548.804 283.529 -58.421 77.692
Apr-99 1839.72 1832.333 7.387 -62.904 14.788
May-99 1846.498 1839.72 6.778 -11.579 3.209
Jun-99 1864.852 1846.498 18.354 35.679 38.888
Jul-99 1965.743 1864.852 100.891 -41.317 -2.429
Aug-99 1949.002 1965.743 -16.741 29.786 27.357
Sep-99 1607.373 1949.002 -341.629 -89.581 -62.224
Oct-99 1803.664 1607.373 196.291 74.414 12.19
Nov-99 1850.309 1803.664 46.645 21.405 33.595
Dec-99 1836.435 1850.309 -13.874 -43.914 -10.319
Jan-00 1541.66 1836.435 -294.775 -47.448 -57.767
Feb-00 1616.928 1541.66 75.268 125.891 68.124
Mar-00 1919.538 1616.928 302.61 19.081 87.205
Apr-00 1971.493 1919.538 51.955 44.568 131.773
May-00 1992.301 1971.493 20.808 14.03 145.803
Jun-00 2009.763 1992.301 17.462 -0.892 144.911
Jul-00 2053.996 2009.763 44.233 -56.658 88.253
Aug-00 2097.471 2053.996 43.475 60.216 148.469
Sep-00 1823.706 2097.471 -273.765 67.864 216.333
Oct-00 1976.997 1823.706 153.291 -43 173.333
Nov-00 1981.408 1976.997 4.411 -42.234 131.099
Dec-00 2000.153 1981.408 18.745 32.619 163.718
Jan-01 1683.148 2000.153 -317.005 -22.23 141.488
Feb-01 1663.404 1683.148 -19.744 -95.012 46.476
Mar-01 2007.928 1663.404 344.524 41.914 88.39
Apr-01 2023.792 2007.928 15.864 -36.091 52.299
May-01 2047.008 2023.792 23.216 2.408 54.707
Jun-01 2072.913 2047.008 25.905 8.443 63.15
Jul-01 2126.717 2072.913 53.804 9.571 72.721
Aug-01 2202.638 2126.717 75.921 32.446 105.167
Sep-01 1707.693 2202.638 -494.945 -221.18 -116.013
Oct-01 1950.716 1707.693 243.023 89.732 -26.281
Nov-01 1973.614 1950.716 22.898 18.487 -7.794
Dec-01 1984.729 1973.614 11.115 -7.63 -15.424
Jan-02 1759.629 1984.729 -225.1 91.905 76.481
Feb-02 1770.595 1759.629 10.966 30.71 107.191
Mar-02 2019.912 1770.595 249.317 -95.207 11.984
Apr-02 2048.398 2019.912 28.486 12.622 24.606
May-02 2068.763 2048.398 20.365 -2.851 21.755
Jun-02 1994.267 2068.763 -74.496 -100.401 -78.646
Jul-02 2075.258 1994.267 80.991 27.187 -51.459
Aug-02 2026.56 2075.258 -48.698 -124.619 -176.078
Sep-02 1734.155 2026.56 -292.405 202.54 26.462
Oct-02 1916.771 1734.155 182.616 -60.407 -33.945
Nov-02 1858.345 1916.771 -58.426 -81.324 -115.269
Dec-02 1996.352 1858.345 138.007 126.892 11.623
Jan-03 1778.033 1996.352 -218.319 6.781 18.404
Feb-03 1749.489 1778.033 -28.544 -39.51 -21.106
Mar-03 2066.466 1749.489 316.977 67.66 46.554
Apr-03 2098.899 2066.466 32.433 3.947 50.501
May-03 2104.911 2098.899 6.012 -14.353 36.148
Jun-03 2129.671 2104.911 24.76 99.256 135.404
Jul-03 2223.349 2129.671 93.678 12.687 148.091
Aug-03 2174.36 2223.349 -48.989 -0.291 147.8
Sep-03 1931.406 2174.36 -242.954 49.451 197.251
Oct-03 2121.47 1931.406 190.064 7.448 204.699
Nov-03 2076.054 2121.47 -45.416 13.01 217.709
Dec-03 2140.677 2076.054 64.623 -73.384 144.325
Jan-04 1831.508 2140.677 -309.169 -90.85 53.475
Feb-04 1838.006 1831.508 6.498 35.042 88.517
Mar-04 2132.446 1838.006 294.44 -22.537 65.98
 Ridership
2500

2000

1500

Has trend Not stationary

1000
Has seasonality
500

0
Jan-91 Dec-91 Nov-92 Oct-93 Sep-94 Aug-95 Jul -96 Jun-97 May-98 Apr-99 Mar-00 Feb-01 Jan-02 Dec-02 Nov-03

A stationary series is:

roughly horizontal
constant variance
no patterns predictable in the long-term

Detrended ridership series - d(1)

400

300

200

100

0
Ja n-91 Nov-91 Sep-92 Jul -93 May-94Mar-95 Ja n-96 Nov-96 Sep-97 Jul-98 May-99Mar-00 Ja n-01 Nov-01 Sep-02 Jul -03
-100

-200

-300

-400

-500

-600

Stationary ridership series (detrended + deseasonalized) - d(1), d(12

300

200

100
 Stationary ridership series (detrended + deseasonalized) - d(1), d(12
300

200

100

0
Jan-91 Aug-91 Mar-92 Oct-92 May-93 Dec-93 Jul -94 Feb-95 Sep-95 Apr-96 Nov-96 Jun-97 Ja n-98 Aug-98 Ma r-99 Oct-99 May-00 Dec-00

-100

-200

-300
 Deseasonalized ridership series - d(12)
300

200

100

0
Jan-91 Jan-93 Ja n-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Ja n-01 Jan-03

-100

-200

-300

onalized) - d(1), d(12)

onalized) - d(1), d(12)

Ma r-99 Oct-99 May-00 Dec-00 Jul -01 Feb-02 Sep-02 Apr-03 Nov-03
Month Ridership Quadratic trend + additive seasonality forecast Error Lag 1 Lag 2
Jan-91 1708.917 1660.35 48.57
Feb-91 1620.586 1616.37 4.21 48.57
Mar-91 1972.715 1910.61 62.11 4.21 48.57
Apr-91 1811.665 1912.71 -101.05 62.11 4.21
May-91 1974.964 1938.18 36.79 -101.05 62.11
Jun-91 1862.356 1891.05 -28.69 36.79 -101.05
Jul-91 1939.86 1989.73 -49.87 -28.69 36.79
Aug-91 2013.264 2029.00 -15.74 -49.87 -28.69
Sep-91 1595.657 1690.20 -94.54 -15.74 -49.87
Oct-91 1724.924 1823.93 -99.00 -94.54 -15.74
Nov-91 1675.667 1808.32 -132.65 -99.00 -94.54
Dec-91 1813.863 1846.68 -32.82 -132.65 -99.00
Jan-92 1614.827 1604.74 10.08 -32.82 -132.65
Feb-92 1557.088 1561.82 -4.73 10.08 -32.82
Mar-92 1891.223 1857.10 34.12 -4.73 10.08
Apr-92 1955.981 1860.26 95.72 34.12 -4.73
May-92 1884.714 1886.77 -2.06 95.72 34.12
Jun-92 1623.042 1840.69 -217.65 -2.06 95.72
Jul-92 1903.309 1940.42 -37.11 -217.65 -2.06
Aug-92 1996.712 1980.74 15.97 -37.11 -217.65
Sep-92 1703.897 1642.99 60.91 15.97 -37.11
Oct-92 1810 1777.77 32.23 60.91 15.97
Nov-92 1861.601 1763.21 98.39 32.23 60.91
Dec-92 1875.122 1802.63 72.49 98.39 32.23
Jan-93 1705.259 1561.74 143.52 72.49 98.39
Feb-93 1618.535 1519.86 98.67 143.52 72.49
Mar-93 1836.709 1816.20 20.51 98.67 143.52
Apr-93 1957.043 1820.40 136.64 20.51 98.67
May-93 1917.185 1847.97 69.22 136.64 20.51
Jun-93 1882.398 1802.94 79.46 69.22 136.64
Jul-93 1933.009 1903.72 29.29 79.46 69.22
Aug-93 1996.167 1945.09 51.08 29.29 79.46
Sep-93 1672.841 1608.39 64.45 51.08 29.29
Oct-93 1752.827 1744.22 8.61 64.45 51.08
Nov-93 1720.377 1730.71 -10.33 8.61 64.45
Dec-93 1734.292 1771.17 -36.88 -10.33 8.61
Jan-94 1563.365 1531.34 32.03 -36.88 -10.33
Feb-94 1573.959 1490.51 83.45 32.03 -36.88
Mar-94 1902.639 1787.89 114.75 83.45 32.03
Apr-94 1833.888 1793.15 40.74 114.75 83.45
May-94 1831.049 1821.76 9.29 40.74 114.75
Jun-94 1775.755 1777.79 -2.03 9.29 40.74
Jul-94 1867.508 1879.62 -12.11 -2.03 9.29
Aug-94 1906.608 1922.04 -15.43 -12.11 -2.03
Sep-94 1685.632 1586.38 99.25 -15.43 -12.11
Oct-94 1778.546 1723.27 55.28 99.25 -15.43
Nov-94 1775.995 1710.80 65.19 55.28 99.25
Dec-94 1783.35 1752.32 31.03 65.19 55.28
Jan-95 1548.415 1513.53 34.88 31.03 65.19
Feb-95 1496.925 1473.76 23.17 34.88 31.03
Mar-95 1798.316 1772.19 26.12 23.17 34.88
Apr-95 1732.895 1778.50 -45.60 26.12 23.17
May-95 1772.345 1808.16 -35.82 -45.60 26.12
Jun-95 1761.207 1765.24 -4.03 -35.82 -45.60
Jul-95 1791.655 1868.12 -76.46 -4.03 -35.82
Aug-95 1874.82 1911.59 -36.77 -76.46 -4.03
Sep-95 1571.309 1576.98 -5.68 -36.77 -76.46
Oct-95 1646.948 1714.92 -67.97 -5.68 -36.77
Nov-95 1672.631 1703.50 -30.87 -67.97 -5.68
Dec-95 1656.845 1746.07 -89.23 -30.87 -67.97
Jan-96 1381.758 1508.33 -126.58 -89.23 -30.87
Feb-96 1360.852 1469.61 -108.75 -126.58 -89.23
Mar-96 1558.575 1769.09 -210.52 -108.75 -126.58
Apr-96 1608.42 1776.45 -168.03 -210.52 -108.75
May-96 1696.696 1807.16 -110.47 -168.03 -210.52
Jun-96 1693.183 1765.29 -72.10 -110.47 -168.03
Jul-96 1835.516 1869.22 -33.70 -72.10 -110.47
Aug-96 1942.573 1913.74 28.83 -33.70 -72.10
Sep-96 1551.401 1580.19 -28.78 28.83 -33.70
Oct-96 1686.508 1719.17 -32.66 -28.78 28.83
Nov-96 1576.204 1708.81 -132.60 -32.66 -28.78
Dec-96 1700.433 1752.42 -51.99 -132.60 -32.66
Jan-97 1396.588 1515.74 -119.15 -51.99 -132.60
Feb-97 1371.69 1478.06 -106.37 -119.15 -51.99
Mar-97 1707.522 1778.60 -71.07 -106.37 -119.15
Apr-97 1654.604 1787.00 -132.40 -71.07 -106.37
May-97 1762.903 1818.77 -55.86 -132.40 -71.07
Jun-97 1775.8 1777.94 -2.14 -55.86 -132.40
Jul-97 1934.219 1882.92 51.30 -2.14 -55.86
Aug-97 2008.055 1928.49 79.56 51.30 -2.14
Sep-97 1615.924 1595.99 19.93 79.56 51.30
Oct-97 1773.91 1736.02 37.89 19.93 79.56
Nov-97 1732.368 1726.71 5.66 37.89 19.93
Dec-97 1796.626 1771.38 25.25 5.66 37.89
Jan-98 1570.33 1535.74 34.59 25.25 5.66
Feb-98 1412.691 1499.11 -86.42 34.59 25.25
Mar-98 1754.641 1800.70 -46.06 -86.42 34.59
Apr-98 1824.932 1810.16 14.78 -46.06 -86.42
May-98 1843.289 1842.97 0.32 14.78 -46.06
Jun-98 1825.964 1803.20 22.77 0.32 14.78
Jul-98 1968.172 1909.23 58.95 22.77 0.32
Aug-98 1921.645 1955.85 -34.20 58.95 22.77
Sep-98 1669.597 1624.40 45.20 -34.20 58.95
Oct-98 1791.474 1765.48 26.00 45.20 -34.20
Nov-98 1816.714 1757.22 59.50 26.00 45.20
Dec-98 1846.754 1802.93 43.82 59.50 26.00
Jan-99 1599.427 1568.35 31.08 43.82 59.50
Feb-99 1548.804 1532.77 16.03 31.08 43.82
Mar-99 1832.333 1835.41 -3.07 16.03 31.08
Apr-99 1839.72 1845.91 -6.19 -3.07 16.03
May-99 1846.498 1879.78 -33.28 -6.19 -3.07
Jun-99 1864.852 1841.05 23.80 -33.28 -6.19
Jul-99 1965.743 1948.13 17.61 23.80 -33.28
Aug-99 1949.002 1995.80 -46.80 17.61 23.80
Sep-99 1607.373 1665.40 -58.03 -46.80 17.61
Oct-99 1803.664 1807.54 -3.87 -58.03 -46.80
Nov-99 1850.309 1800.32 49.99 -3.87 -58.03
Dec-99 1836.435 1847.09 -10.66 49.99 -3.87
Jan-00 1541.66 1613.56 -71.90 -10.66 49.99
Feb-00 1616.928 1579.03 37.90 -71.90 -10.66
Mar-00 1919.538 1882.72 36.82 37.90 -71.90
Apr-00 1971.493 1894.27 77.22 36.82 37.90
May-00 1992.301 1929.19 63.11 77.22 36.82
Jun-00 2009.763 1891.51 118.25 63.11 77.22
Jul-00 2053.996 1999.64 54.35 118.25 63.11
Aug-00 2097.471 2048.36 49.11 54.35 118.25
Sep-00 1823.706 1719.01 104.69 49.11 54.35
Oct-00 1976.997 1862.20 114.80 104.69 49.11
Nov-00 1981.408 1856.03 125.37 114.80 104.69
Dec-00 2000.153 1903.85 96.30 125.37 114.80
Jan-01 1683.148 1671.37 11.78 96.30 125.37
Feb-01 1663.404 1637.89 25.52 11.78 96.30
Mar-01 2007.928 1942.63 65.30 25.52 11.78
Apr-01 2023.792 1955.23 68.56 65.30 25.52
May-01 2047.008 1991.20 55.81 68.56 65.30
Jun-01 2072.913 1954.57 118.34 55.81 68.56
Jul-01 2126.717 2063.75 62.96 118.34 55.81
Aug-01 2202.638 2113.52 89.11 62.96 118.34
Sep-01 1707.693 1785.22 -77.53 89.11 62.96
Oct-01 1950.716 1929.46 21.26 -77.53 89.11
Nov-01 1973.614 1924.35 49.27 21.26 -77.53
Dec-01 1984.729 1973.21 11.51 49.27 21.26
Jan-02 1759.629 1741.78 17.85 11.51 49.27
Feb-02 1770.595 1709.35 61.24 17.85 11.51
Mar-02 2019.912 2015.14 4.77 61.24 17.85
Apr-02 2048.398 2028.79 19.60 4.77 61.24
May-02 2068.763 2065.81 2.95 19.60 4.77
Jun-02 1994.267 2030.23 -35.97 2.95 19.60
Jul-02 2075.258 2140.47 -65.21 -35.97 2.95
Aug-02 2026.56 2191.29 -164.73 -65.21 -35.97
Sep-02 1734.155 1864.04 -129.88 -164.73 -65.21
Oct-02 1916.771 2009.32 -92.55 -129.88 -164.73
Nov-02 1858.345 2005.26 -146.91 -92.55 -129.88
Dec-02 1996.352 2055.18 -58.83 -146.91 -92.55
Jan-03 1778.033 1824.79 -46.76 -58.83 -146.91
Feb-03 1749.489 1793.41 -43.93 -46.76 -58.83
Mar-03 2066.466 2100.25 -33.79 -43.93 -46.76
Apr-03 2098.899 2114.96 -16.06 -33.79 -43.93
May-03 2104.911 2153.02 -48.11 -16.06 -33.79
Jun-03 2129.671 2118.50 11.17 -48.11 -16.06
Jul-03 2223.349 2229.78 -6.43 11.17 -48.11
Aug-03 2174.36 2281.65 -107.29 -6.43 11.17
Sep-03 1931.406 1955.45 -24.05 -107.29 -6.43
Oct-03 2121.47 2101.79 19.68 -24.05 -107.29
Nov-03 2076.054 2098.77 -22.72 19.68 -24.05
Dec-03 2140.677 2149.74 -9.07 -22.72 19.68
Jan-04 1831.508 1920.41 -88.90 -9.07 -22.72
Feb-04 1838.006 1890.08 -52.07 -88.90 -9.07
Mar-04 2132.446 2197.97 -65.52 -52.07 -88.90
 Lagged error series
Lag 3 Lag 4 Lag 5 Lag 6 Lag 7 Lag 8 Lag 9 Lag 10 Lag 11 Lag 12

48.57
4.21 48.57
62.11 4.21 48.57
-101.05 62.11 4.21 48.57
36.79 -101.05 62.11 4.21 48.57
-28.69 36.79 -101.05 62.11 4.21 48.57
-49.87 -28.69 36.79 -101.05 62.11 4.21 48.57
-15.74 -49.87 -28.69 36.79 -101.05 62.11 4.21 48.57
-94.54 -15.74 -49.87 -28.69 36.79 -101.05 62.11 4.21 48.57
-99.00 -94.54 -15.74 -49.87 -28.69 36.79 -101.05 62.11 4.21 48.57
-132.65 -99.00 -94.54 -15.74 -49.87 -28.69 36.79 -101.05 62.11 4.21
-32.82 -132.65 -99.00 -94.54 -15.74 -49.87 -28.69 36.79 -101.05 62.11
10.08 -32.82 -132.65 -99.00 -94.54 -15.74 -49.87 -28.69 36.79 -101.05
-4.73 10.08 -32.82 -132.65 -99.00 -94.54 -15.74 -49.87 -28.69 36.79
34.12 -4.73 10.08 -32.82 -132.65 -99.00 -94.54 -15.74 -49.87 -28.69
95.72 34.12 -4.73 10.08 -32.82 -132.65 -99.00 -94.54 -15.74 -49.87
-2.06 95.72 34.12 -4.73 10.08 -32.82 -132.65 -99.00 -94.54 -15.74
-217.65 -2.06 95.72 34.12 -4.73 10.08 -32.82 -132.65 -99.00 -94.54
-37.11 -217.65 -2.06 95.72 34.12 -4.73 10.08 -32.82 -132.65 -99.00
15.97 -37.11 -217.65 -2.06 95.72 34.12 -4.73 10.08 -32.82 -132.65
60.91 15.97 -37.11 -217.65 -2.06 95.72 34.12 -4.73 10.08 -32.82
32.23 60.91 15.97 -37.11 -217.65 -2.06 95.72 34.12 -4.73 10.08
98.39 32.23 60.91 15.97 -37.11 -217.65 -2.06 95.72 34.12 -4.73
72.49 98.39 32.23 60.91 15.97 -37.11 -217.65 -2.06 95.72 34.12
143.52 72.49 98.39 32.23 60.91 15.97 -37.11 -217.65 -2.06 95.72
98.67 143.52 72.49 98.39 32.23 60.91 15.97 -37.11 -217.65 -2.06
20.51 98.67 143.52 72.49 98.39 32.23 60.91 15.97 -37.11 -217.65
136.64 20.51 98.67 143.52 72.49 98.39 32.23 60.91 15.97 -37.11
69.22 136.64 20.51 98.67 143.52 72.49 98.39 32.23 60.91 15.97
79.46 69.22 136.64 20.51 98.67 143.52 72.49 98.39 32.23 60.91
29.29 79.46 69.22 136.64 20.51 98.67 143.52 72.49 98.39 32.23
51.08 29.29 79.46 69.22 136.64 20.51 98.67 143.52 72.49 98.39
64.45 51.08 29.29 79.46 69.22 136.64 20.51 98.67 143.52 72.49
8.61 64.45 51.08 29.29 79.46 69.22 136.64 20.51 98.67 143.52
-10.33 8.61 64.45 51.08 29.29 79.46 69.22 136.64 20.51 98.67
-36.88 -10.33 8.61 64.45 51.08 29.29 79.46 69.22 136.64 20.51
32.03 -36.88 -10.33 8.61 64.45 51.08 29.29 79.46 69.22 136.64
83.45 32.03 -36.88 -10.33 8.61 64.45 51.08 29.29 79.46 69.22
114.75 83.45 32.03 -36.88 -10.33 8.61 64.45 51.08 29.29 79.46
40.74 114.75 83.45 32.03 -36.88 -10.33 8.61 64.45 51.08 29.29
 9.29 40.74 114.75 83.45 32.03 -36.88 -10.33 8.61 64.45 51.08
-2.03 9.29 40.74 114.75 83.45 32.03 -36.88 -10.33 8.61 64.45
-12.11 -2.03 9.29 40.74 114.75 83.45 32.03 -36.88 -10.33 8.61
-15.43 -12.11 -2.03 9.29 40.74 114.75 83.45 32.03 -36.88 -10.33
99.25 -15.43 -12.11 -2.03 9.29 40.74 114.75 83.45 32.03 -36.88
55.28 99.25 -15.43 -12.11 -2.03 9.29 40.74 114.75 83.45 32.03
65.19 55.28 99.25 -15.43 -12.11 -2.03 9.29 40.74 114.75 83.45
31.03 65.19 55.28 99.25 -15.43 -12.11 -2.03 9.29 40.74 114.75
34.88 31.03 65.19 55.28 99.25 -15.43 -12.11 -2.03 9.29 40.74
23.17 34.88 31.03 65.19 55.28 99.25 -15.43 -12.11 -2.03 9.29
26.12 23.17 34.88 31.03 65.19 55.28 99.25 -15.43 -12.11 -2.03
-45.60 26.12 23.17 34.88 31.03 65.19 55.28 99.25 -15.43 -12.11
-35.82 -45.60 26.12 23.17 34.88 31.03 65.19 55.28 99.25 -15.43
-4.03 -35.82 -45.60 26.12 23.17 34.88 31.03 65.19 55.28 99.25
-76.46 -4.03 -35.82 -45.60 26.12 23.17 34.88 31.03 65.19 55.28
-36.77 -76.46 -4.03 -35.82 -45.60 26.12 23.17 34.88 31.03 65.19
-5.68 -36.77 -76.46 -4.03 -35.82 -45.60 26.12 23.17 34.88 31.03
-67.97 -5.68 -36.77 -76.46 -4.03 -35.82 -45.60 26.12 23.17 34.88
-30.87 -67.97 -5.68 -36.77 -76.46 -4.03 -35.82 -45.60 26.12 23.17
-89.23 -30.87 -67.97 -5.68 -36.77 -76.46 -4.03 -35.82 -45.60 26.12
-126.58 -89.23 -30.87 -67.97 -5.68 -36.77 -76.46 -4.03 -35.82 -45.60
-108.75 -126.58 -89.23 -30.87 -67.97 -5.68 -36.77 -76.46 -4.03 -35.82
-210.52 -108.75 -126.58 -89.23 -30.87 -67.97 -5.68 -36.77 -76.46 -4.03
-168.03 -210.52 -108.75 -126.58 -89.23 -30.87 -67.97 -5.68 -36.77 -76.46
-110.47 -168.03 -210.52 -108.75 -126.58 -89.23 -30.87 -67.97 -5.68 -36.77
-72.10 -110.47 -168.03 -210.52 -108.75 -126.58 -89.23 -30.87 -67.97 -5.68
-33.70 -72.10 -110.47 -168.03 -210.52 -108.75 -126.58 -89.23 -30.87 -67.97
28.83 -33.70 -72.10 -110.47 -168.03 -210.52 -108.75 -126.58 -89.23 -30.87
-28.78 28.83 -33.70 -72.10 -110.47 -168.03 -210.52 -108.75 -126.58 -89.23
-32.66 -28.78 28.83 -33.70 -72.10 -110.47 -168.03 -210.52 -108.75 -126.58
-132.60 -32.66 -28.78 28.83 -33.70 -72.10 -110.47 -168.03 -210.52 -108.75
-51.99 -132.60 -32.66 -28.78 28.83 -33.70 -72.10 -110.47 -168.03 -210.52
-119.15 -51.99 -132.60 -32.66 -28.78 28.83 -33.70 -72.10 -110.47 -168.03
-106.37 -119.15 -51.99 -132.60 -32.66 -28.78 28.83 -33.70 -72.10 -110.47
-71.07 -106.37 -119.15 -51.99 -132.60 -32.66 -28.78 28.83 -33.70 -72.10
-132.40 -71.07 -106.37 -119.15 -51.99 -132.60 -32.66 -28.78 28.83 -33.70
-55.86 -132.40 -71.07 -106.37 -119.15 -51.99 -132.60 -32.66 -28.78 28.83
-2.14 -55.86 -132.40 -71.07 -106.37 -119.15 -51.99 -132.60 -32.66 -28.78
51.30 -2.14 -55.86 -132.40 -71.07 -106.37 -119.15 -51.99 -132.60 -32.66
79.56 51.30 -2.14 -55.86 -132.40 -71.07 -106.37 -119.15 -51.99 -132.60
19.93 79.56 51.30 -2.14 -55.86 -132.40 -71.07 -106.37 -119.15 -51.99
37.89 19.93 79.56 51.30 -2.14 -55.86 -132.40 -71.07 -106.37 -119.15
5.66 37.89 19.93 79.56 51.30 -2.14 -55.86 -132.40 -71.07 -106.37
25.25 5.66 37.89 19.93 79.56 51.30 -2.14 -55.86 -132.40 -71.07
34.59 25.25 5.66 37.89 19.93 79.56 51.30 -2.14 -55.86 -132.40
-86.42 34.59 25.25 5.66 37.89 19.93 79.56 51.30 -2.14 -55.86
-46.06 -86.42 34.59 25.25 5.66 37.89 19.93 79.56 51.30 -2.14
14.78 -46.06 -86.42 34.59 25.25 5.66 37.89 19.93 79.56 51.30
0.32 14.78 -46.06 -86.42 34.59 25.25 5.66 37.89 19.93 79.56
22.77 0.32 14.78 -46.06 -86.42 34.59 25.25 5.66 37.89 19.93
58.95 22.77 0.32 14.78 -46.06 -86.42 34.59 25.25 5.66 37.89
-34.20 58.95 22.77 0.32 14.78 -46.06 -86.42 34.59 25.25 5.66
45.20 -34.20 58.95 22.77 0.32 14.78 -46.06 -86.42 34.59 25.25
26.00 45.20 -34.20 58.95 22.77 0.32 14.78 -46.06 -86.42 34.59
59.50 26.00 45.20 -34.20 58.95 22.77 0.32 14.78 -46.06 -86.42
43.82 59.50 26.00 45.20 -34.20 58.95 22.77 0.32 14.78 -46.06
31.08 43.82 59.50 26.00 45.20 -34.20 58.95 22.77 0.32 14.78
16.03 31.08 43.82 59.50 26.00 45.20 -34.20 58.95 22.77 0.32
-3.07 16.03 31.08 43.82 59.50 26.00 45.20 -34.20 58.95 22.77
-6.19 -3.07 16.03 31.08 43.82 59.50 26.00 45.20 -34.20 58.95
-33.28 -6.19 -3.07 16.03 31.08 43.82 59.50 26.00 45.20 -34.20
23.80 -33.28 -6.19 -3.07 16.03 31.08 43.82 59.50 26.00 45.20
17.61 23.80 -33.28 -6.19 -3.07 16.03 31.08 43.82 59.50 26.00
-46.80 17.61 23.80 -33.28 -6.19 -3.07 16.03 31.08 43.82 59.50
-58.03 -46.80 17.61 23.80 -33.28 -6.19 -3.07 16.03 31.08 43.82
-3.87 -58.03 -46.80 17.61 23.80 -33.28 -6.19 -3.07 16.03 31.08
49.99 -3.87 -58.03 -46.80 17.61 23.80 -33.28 -6.19 -3.07 16.03
-10.66 49.99 -3.87 -58.03 -46.80 17.61 23.80 -33.28 -6.19 -3.07
-71.90 -10.66 49.99 -3.87 -58.03 -46.80 17.61 23.80 -33.28 -6.19
37.90 -71.90 -10.66 49.99 -3.87 -58.03 -46.80 17.61 23.80 -33.28
36.82 37.90 -71.90 -10.66 49.99 -3.87 -58.03 -46.80 17.61 23.80
77.22 36.82 37.90 -71.90 -10.66 49.99 -3.87 -58.03 -46.80 17.61
63.11 77.22 36.82 37.90 -71.90 -10.66 49.99 -3.87 -58.03 -46.80
118.25 63.11 77.22 36.82 37.90 -71.90 -10.66 49.99 -3.87 -58.03
54.35 118.25 63.11 77.22 36.82 37.90 -71.90 -10.66 49.99 -3.87
49.11 54.35 118.25 63.11 77.22 36.82 37.90 -71.90 -10.66 49.99
104.69 49.11 54.35 118.25 63.11 77.22 36.82 37.90 -71.90 -10.66
114.80 104.69 49.11 54.35 118.25 63.11 77.22 36.82 37.90 -71.90
125.37 114.80 104.69 49.11 54.35 118.25 63.11 77.22 36.82 37.90
96.30 125.37 114.80 104.69 49.11 54.35 118.25 63.11 77.22 36.82
11.78 96.30 125.37 114.80 104.69 49.11 54.35 118.25 63.11 77.22
25.52 11.78 96.30 125.37 114.80 104.69 49.11 54.35 118.25 63.11
65.30 25.52 11.78 96.30 125.37 114.80 104.69 49.11 54.35 118.25
68.56 65.30 25.52 11.78 96.30 125.37 114.80 104.69 49.11 54.35
55.81 68.56 65.30 25.52 11.78 96.30 125.37 114.80 104.69 49.11
118.34 55.81 68.56 65.30 25.52 11.78 96.30 125.37 114.80 104.69
62.96 118.34 55.81 68.56 65.30 25.52 11.78 96.30 125.37 114.80
89.11 62.96 118.34 55.81 68.56 65.30 25.52 11.78 96.30 125.37
-77.53 89.11 62.96 118.34 55.81 68.56 65.30 25.52 11.78 96.30
21.26 -77.53 89.11 62.96 118.34 55.81 68.56 65.30 25.52 11.78
 49.27 21.26 -77.53 89.11 62.96 118.34 55.81 68.56 65.30 25.52
11.51 49.27 21.26 -77.53 89.11 62.96 118.34 55.81 68.56 65.30
17.85 11.51 49.27 21.26 -77.53 89.11 62.96 118.34 55.81 68.56
61.24 17.85 11.51 49.27 21.26 -77.53 89.11 62.96 118.34 55.81
4.77 61.24 17.85 11.51 49.27 21.26 -77.53 89.11 62.96 118.34
19.60 4.77 61.24 17.85 11.51 49.27 21.26 -77.53 89.11 62.96
2.95 19.60 4.77 61.24 17.85 11.51 49.27 21.26 -77.53 89.11
-35.97 2.95 19.60 4.77 61.24 17.85 11.51 49.27 21.26 -77.53
-65.21 -35.97 2.95 19.60 4.77 61.24 17.85 11.51 49.27 21.26
-164.73 -65.21 -35.97 2.95 19.60 4.77 61.24 17.85 11.51 49.27
-129.88 -164.73 -65.21 -35.97 2.95 19.60 4.77 61.24 17.85 11.51
-92.55 -129.88 -164.73 -65.21 -35.97 2.95 19.60 4.77 61.24 17.85
-146.91 -92.55 -129.88 -164.73 -65.21 -35.97 2.95 19.60 4.77 61.24
-58.83 -146.91 -92.55 -129.88 -164.73 -65.21 -35.97 2.95 19.60 4.77
-46.76 -58.83 -146.91 -92.55 -129.88 -164.73 -65.21 -35.97 2.95 19.60
-43.93 -46.76 -58.83 -146.91 -92.55 -129.88 -164.73 -65.21 -35.97 2.95
-33.79 -43.93 -46.76 -58.83 -146.91 -92.55 -129.88 -164.73 -65.21 -35.97
-16.06 -33.79 -43.93 -46.76 -58.83 -146.91 -92.55 -129.88 -164.73 -65.21
-48.11 -16.06 -33.79 -43.93 -46.76 -58.83 -146.91 -92.55 -129.88 -164.73
11.17 -48.11 -16.06 -33.79 -43.93 -46.76 -58.83 -146.91 -92.55 -129.88
-6.43 11.17 -48.11 -16.06 -33.79 -43.93 -46.76 -58.83 -146.91 -92.55
-107.29 -6.43 11.17 -48.11 -16.06 -33.79 -43.93 -46.76 -58.83 -146.91
-24.05 -107.29 -6.43 11.17 -48.11 -16.06 -33.79 -43.93 -46.76 -58.83
19.68 -24.05 -107.29 -6.43 11.17 -48.11 -16.06 -33.79 -43.93 -46.76
-22.72 19.68 -24.05 -107.29 -6.43 11.17 -48.11 -16.06 -33.79 -43.93
-9.07 -22.72 19.68 -24.05 -107.29 -6.43 11.17 -48.11 -16.06 -33.79
Measuring autocorrelation (or serial correlation) in ther error series:
Compute correlations between original error ser

Error Lag 1 Lag 2 Lag 3 Lag 4

Error 1
Lag 1 0.640449 1
Lag 2 0.511243 0.639042 1
Lag 3 0.410021 0.507936 0.637579 1
Lag 4 0.325786 0.410444 0.508268 0.639892 1
Lag 5 0.279991 0.324947 0.409826 0.508485 0.639899
Lag 6 0.238433 0.28254 0.326962 0.414372 0.508855
Lag 7 0.243099 0.237234 0.281594 0.326085 0.414316
Lag 8 0.251782 0.236576 0.232319 0.272711 0.327473
Lag 9 0.235563 0.251949 0.236573 0.232802 0.272667
Lag 10 0.181684 0.23723 0.253177 0.23918 0.23295
Lag 11 0.208831 0.178286 0.234723 0.249224 0.239047
Lag 12 0.172357 0.208054 0.17752 0.234095 0.249105

How to capture the autocorrelation in the sereis, in order to improve the forecasts a
 ther error series:
tions between original error series and lagged series of error

Lag 5 Lag 6 Lag 7 Lag 8 Lag 9 Lag 10 Lag 11 Lag 12

1
0.640859 1
0.508541 0.641912 1
0.414623 0.515563 0.643794 1
0.327408 0.414938 0.515567 0.647813 1
0.273103 0.327208 0.415451 0.521158 0.647974 1
0.232003 0.274977 0.326359 0.412401 0.521605 0.649799 1
0.238695 0.232568 0.274633 0.326626 0.412366 0.522001 0.649875 1

order to improve the forecasts and evaluate predictability of series