Key Findings of MBB in North Afirca Region

Security Level:
Key Findings of MBB

in North Africa
John Cao
John.cao@huawei.com
www.huawei.com
HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential

Content
1 MBB in North Africa
2 E2E traffic model analysis
3 User behavior characteristics analysis
4 Summary
HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 2

3G/MBB Situation in NA11 Countries deployed 3G
8 countries launched HSPA
3G/HSPA in NA
No 3G GSM UMTS 3G Forecast
South in 3 Years
3G Malt Cyprus Syria
HSPA Tunisi a Etisalat 5000 3100 4000
Morocco a
Mobinil 4850 2200 4000
Algeria Libya Egypt
VDF 5000 2800 4000
TT 3000 ~400 1600
Cape
Mauritania Mali Nig Cha Libyana 2100 700
er d Suda Yeme
verde
n n Sudani ~1450 720 1000
Senegal
Sudan Zain ~2000 300 700
Eritre
a Sudan MTN 1600 250 500~600
Economic is still the main reason for 3G/HSPA deployment, except Algeria, other countries do not
deploy 3G because of economically backward, and the short term is difficult to rapidly developing
countries
Focus more on coverage in major cities, most of the network are light loaded.
Page 3
Great Potential in 3G/MBB Development
4500 30.0%
4000
25.0%
3500
3000 20.0%
2500
15.0%
2000
1500
2010Q2 10% 10.0%
1000
5.0%
500
0 0.0%
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an
Ma
Eg
Li
Su
Sy
Tu
Ye
Ni
ro
ne
ge
Cy
it
Mo
Se
Al
ur
3G subs Ma 3G Ratio
North Africa 3G/MBB market is in the initial stage

According to the experience of Europe, it will take 4-5 years for 3G user ratio to reach 25% to 30% (from 2005 to
2010 years); But with the decrease of 3G terminals, 3G development will be faster than before.
Total 3G user in NA: ~6.3million2010.6), total mobile subscribers: ~190million

Rich Experience in MBB Network Deployment
UMTS Total Market Sharing in NA

0.91% (Cell)
2.38%
11.49%
H
E
N
27.33%
57.89% A
Z
12,000
10,000
UMTS Market Sharing in
8,000
Major Cities of NA (Cell) Huawei
6,000 Ericsson
NSN
4,000
ALU
2,000
ZTE
0 Moto

Content
4 Summary

Key Finding of XX 3G and HSDPA Network
General 3G network analysis:
Total mobile subscriber is 12M, 3G user is 0.5M up to Q3,2010
Total active 3G user at BH for whole network is about 50,000;
The active ratio is 10%
HSDPA data volume proportion is about 81.5% of total PS services.
Huawei area RNC XXXXX throughput:
BH appears from 22:00-1:00; and BH average throughput rate is 250 Mbps;
BH traffic convergence ratio is 5.5%~7.5%, and the proportion of DL:UL is
(5.5~6.5) : 1.
Active user number and throughput on Friday is a little higher than workdays.
HSDPA network character and user behavior:
Total active HSDPA user at BH for XRH09 is about 2400;
At BH, throughput rate per Channel of most cells is 100 kbps to 1 Mbps;
Network Throughput Features:
BH average throughput per active HSDPA user on RNC is 128 Kbps;
Cell to NodeB convergence ratio is 60%-70%;

Current Network Traffic distribution
---Choose The Target Segment Under Analysis
Target network segment under analysis
XXXXX
Huawei: 3*SGSN+ 2*GGSN XXXXX Traffic: 1.65- 797 NodeB with

14.4 TB/day 2.0 TB/day 2477 carriers
There are 3 sets of Huawei GSN in XX Core network. These GSN bear around
95% of total wireless network traffic(14.4 TB/day).
There are 7 Huawei RNCs in XX network.
As for the XRH09, it is burdening around 21% PS traffic of ET network.

MBB traffic has been mainstream of XX network
+40%
MBB traffic increase 40%
in the last 5 months( from
10T to 14T)
The Traffic of day is up to
14.4TB
100% 2G traffic:4%
90%
5% Sub consume80%
70%
96% Traffic
60%
50% MBB PS traffic:96%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
10-Oct 11-Oct 12-Oct 13-Oct 14-Oct 15-Oct 16-Oct 17-Oct
The 3G traffic account for 96% of total PS traffic. It will bring significant impact for mobile network.
The traffic flood is coming in the MBB era
DL:UL = 6.7:1

XX MBB PS Traffic Analyze
870GB@23:00
1.93Gbps@23:00
MBB PS traffic is up to 14.4TByte per day, 2G data traffic is 600GB per day
MBB PS average BH throughput is around 870GB@BH, throughput rate is
1.93Gbps. Idle Hour throughput is 250GB/hour.
PS BH is from 22:00 to 0:00Idle Hour is from 6 :00 to 8:00, that means most
of user is individual.
The BH convergence ratio of whole day is 6%

RNC(XXXXX Alex) Traffic Analyze
weekend
The RNC average Throughput rate of BH is about 275Mbps

The RNC average Throughput is about 1.652.0TB per day
The active 3G user@BH is 6800
The Ratio of DL:UL is 5:1
From 20:00 to 8:00, traffic/active user is high than other hours. That means
people consumer more traffic at night.

Downlink Traffic Model for PS and RAN
---All Related Data is From XX Current Network (Oct, 2010)
Formula for Traffic Model:
Total Traffic @BH Total Active User @BH
Traffic / Active user @BH = Active Ratio @BH =
Total Active Users @BH Total MBB Subscribers
Traffic / user @BH = Traffic / Active user @BH Active Ratio @BH
PS Total DL Traffic @BH 2150 Mbps

Traffic/ Active User @BH
49 Kbps
Active Users @BH 45 K Traffic / user @BH
Active Ratio @BH 4.9 Kbps
10%
Total MBB Users 450K
RNC XXXXX
Total DL Traffic @BH 246 Mbps
124 Kbps Traffic / user @BH
Active Users @BH 2.04 K
Active Ratio @BH 12.4 Kbps
10%
Very hot site

Total DL Traffic @BH 6.79Mbps
180Kbps
Traffic / user @BH
Active Ratio @BH 18Kpbs
Active Users @BH 38.5
10%

Much higher Single User Throughput than other
Regions: Small-scale user number, large data card
penetration
Average in
XX XXX Middle East
Industry
2010.10 2009.04 2010.02
Traffic /
user @BH 4.9 Kbps 3.6 Kbps 4 Kbps 1-2 Kbps
PS
Traffic /
user @BH 12.4 Kbps 6 Kbps 8.5 Kbps 1.5~3 Kbps
RNC
Traffic /
user @BH 18 Kbps 10Kbps 15 Kbps 2~5Kbps
Cell
Monthly
Usage / ~2.5 GB/Month ~1.3 GB/Month ~1.8 GB/Month ~0.1-0.4GB
user

End to End 3G Traffic Analyze in North Africa
NodeB Microwave HUB site RNC site SGSN site GGSN
Microwave Backhaul RNC
Metro fiber
SGSN GGSN Firewall
Iub Iu-PS Gi
Gn
NodeB Internet
Conve
rgence
100% 50%~80% 40%~50% 30%~40%
3G PS 60%: > 2Mbps

Node 100M~300 Varies with
Depending on
traffic 30%: > 4Mbps
Capaci M/RNC the scale of
15%: > 6Mbps Topology
ty network
Max: ~ 9Mbps
Throu
Network3~15Kbps 2~5Kbps 2~5 Kbps
ghput
Configuration
/ user

Content
4 Summary

XX MBB User Behavior Analysis-PS traffic
MBB active user@BH
Blackberry traffic
is too low
BH of PS traffic is from 22:00 to 0:00idle is from 6:00 to 8:00

The traffic of DataCard account for 92% of PS traffic. But the DataCard
active user only account for 38%.
The DataCard user have an obvious effect to ET MBB network
The Blackberry traffic is the lowest one, almost nothing. That means
Blackberry user almost do not use data service.

XX MBB User Behavior Analysis-PS active user
The BH of active user is from 23:00 to 01:00. Idle Hours is from 6:00 to 8:00.
Same with the traffic BH
DataCardUser@BH=18000, PhoneUser@BH=17000,
Combo@BH=6100,Blkberry@BH=4000
The datacard user exceed the Smartphone btw 12:00 to 00:00 everyday.
The MBB phone user proportion is too low for ET MBB.
The Blackberry active user distribution is very flat. That means Blackberry
never power off. This is business user behavior.
The blackberry user proportion is too low.

The active user of 2G&3G-PS core
Potential 3G
user
More than 97% Datacard user For the phone internet user, 40%
access to internet via 3G network. is from 3G, 60% is from 2G
2.6% Datacard user stay in 2G There is big potential mobile
due to bad 3G coverage phone internet market in Egypt
ET should keep improving the 3G The terminal is main obstacle for
coverage 3G mobile internet user

User behavior analyze of RNC
The traffic of RNC XXXX is up to 1.85TB per day

81% of traffic is HSPA19% of traffic is R99. The HSPA is mainstream of MBB
network.
The R99 UL traffic is much higher than R99 DL. This is because R99 upload
channel bear the HSPA upload traffic. Some terminal dont support HSUPA.

24 hours HSPA analyze for RNC
The RNC traffic distribution keep line with the active user distribution in
24 hours.
That means HSPAs behavior is almost same in 24 hours.
The HSDPA BH convergence ratio is about 6%.
The BH of HSPA traffic is from 22:00 to 0:00. The BH traffic is 250Mbps

NodeB traffic distribution in Cairo
Very hot(>460MB@BH) Hot(>310MB@BH) Normal(>160MB@BH) Cold

Cell Throughput Analysis of ALEX Area
Heavy cell
light cell
User experience of light cell and heavy cell are almost same.
User perceiving throughput is more than 200Kbps in BH. It is not bad.
The throughput will incline with active user increasing
But this is average user experience. ET should pay attention to the real user
experience
The ET MBB network could support much more user
with good user experience
Cell Throughput Analysis of Ramsis Area
Heavy cell
light cell
User experience of light cell is better than heavy cell.

User perceiving throughput is more than 200Kbps in BH. It is not enough.
The throughput will incline with active user increasing
The XX MBB network could support much more user

with good user experience

HSDPA User Experience of region
63, 8%
User Experience@BHof RNCCRH05 3,13,
0% 2% 39, 5%
7, 1%
3000 60
42, 6%
2500 50
>2.0M
User Experience(Kpbs)
2000 40 1.5M-2.0M
1M-1.5M
UE
1500 30 500K-1M
149, 20% 253, 34%
300K-500K
1000 20
100K-300K
500 10 50K-100K
509kbps <50K
0 0 No Trafiic
Cell
HSDPA.MeanChThroughput HSDPA.UE
179, 24%
14, 5%
User Experience@BH of RNC BRH11 2, 1% 0,

4, 0%
1% 15, 5%
2000 12 15, 5%
10 >2.0M
User Experience(Kbps)
1500 1.5M-2.0M
8
1M-1.5M
67, 22%
500K-1M
UE
1000 6
300K-500K
127, 42% 100K-300K
4
500 50K-100K
2 <50K
507kbps No Trafiic
0 0
Cell
58, 19%
Till now, the user experience is no certain relationship with the XX HSPA
active user distribution. The HSPA user quantity is far from the system
limitation.
HSDPA User Experience@BH of region
79, 7%
6, 1% 21, 2%
89, 8%
User Experience@BH of RNC QRH04 18, 2%
3000 25 115, 11% >2.0M
1.5M-2.0M
2500 20 1M-1.5M
221, 20%
2000 500K-1M
15 300K-500K
UE
1500 825kbps 100K-300K
10 50K-100K
1000 176, 16%
<50K
500 5 No Trafiic
0 0
Cell
HSDPA.MeanChThroughput HSDPA.UE 368, 33%
78, 8% 10,16,1%2%
72, 7%
14, 1%
User Experience@BH of RNC SRH08 90, 9%
4000 25 >2.0M
1.5M-2.0M
3500
20 1M-1.5M
3000 500K-1M
2500 15 300K-500K
313, 32%
UE
2000 100K-300K
1500 10 213, 22% 50K-100K
<50K
1000
5 No Trafiic
500 518kbps
0 0
Cell
HSDPA.MeanChThroughput HSDPA.UE 180, 18%

42, 4%
User Experience@BH of RNC PRH06 9, 1% 3,
9, 0%
1%51, 5%
4000 50
78, 7%
3500
User Experience(Kbps)
>2.0M
40
3000 1.5M-2.0M
2500 1M-1.5M
30 314, 29%
500K-1M
UE
2000
300K-500K
1500 20 298, 27% 100K-300K
448kbps 50K-100K
1000
10 <50K
500
No Trafiic
0 0
Cell
287, 26%
11, 0%
User Experience@BH of RNC XRH09 15, 1%
3000 25
325, 14% 130, 6%
2500 20 >2.0M
25, 1% 1.5M-2.0M
2000
15 1M-1.5M
174, 8%
500K-1M
UE
1500
728, 32% 300K-500K
1000
493kbps 10
100K-300K
50K-100K
5
500 <50K
No Trafiic
0 0 481, 21%
Cell
390, 17%

11, 3%
User Experience@BH of RNC TRH03 4, 1%
3,6,1%2%
3000 10 22, 6% 44, 11%
2500 8 >2.0M
1.5M-2.0M
73, 19%
2000 1M-1.5M
6 500K-1M
UE
1500 300K-500K
4 100K-300K
1000 50K-100K
579kbps 151, 37% <50K
500 2 No Trafiic
80, 20%
0 0
Cell
Other Egypt operator A Europe operator

0, 0% 9, 1%
User Perceiving Throughput Distribution:
67, 4% 19% cell over 512k VS.HSDPA.MeanChThroughput
Cell
216, 14%
>2 Mbps
300
1.5 - 2 Mbps
522, 36%
1 - 1.5 Mbps
2009-09-10
500 kbps- 1 Mbps 200
300 - 500 kbps 67% cells
182, 12% 100 - 300 kbps
50 - 100 kbps
100
< 50 kbps
no traffic
75, 5%
0
<64Kbps 64- 128- 256- 384- 512- 1024- 1536- 2048- >2560Kbps
320, 21%
109, 7% 128Kbps 256Kbps 384Kbps 512Kbps 1024Kbps 1536Kbps 2048Kbps 2560Kbps

User distribution and Experience
Average User Experience
900 825
800 Average user experience is
700 501kbps. It is good. The RNC
580
600 509 507 501kbps
493 518 QRH04 area is the best.
500 448
Kbps
400
300
200
100
0
CRH05 BRH11 PRH06 XRH09 QRH04 SRH08 TRH03
HSDPA.UE
3.00
area 2.57
Value area
2.40Value
2.50
2.00 1.75 1.71
Average active HSDPA user
1.50
1.50 1.58 1.30
is 1.58. It is not enough. Its
1.17
a light network
1.00
The MBB business of Naser
0.50 city and Ramsis is better
0.00 than other.
CRH05 BRH11 PRH06 XRH09 QRH04 SRH08 TRH03
Nasrcity Abb Ramsis Alex Qena SV Tanta

Other Operate active HSPA, User experience
Operator A light network
Operator B Heavy network, the user experience is still good

User Perceiving Throughput(Kbps) 21:00(Busy Hour) Average @BH
Average UE per Cell@BH
2000 21:00-22:00
25 23 1800
1600
20 1400
15 14 1200
13
1000
480Kbps
10 8 8 800
6 600
5 400
200
0
0
BA/SE ES NE PR/SC MG CO BA/SE BA/SE ES PR/SC PR/SC PR/SC NE NE NE MG MG MG MG CO CO

Iub traffic of Cell
PRH06 BRH11
10000
Iub throughput rate(Kbps)
7000

9000
8000 6000
7000
4M bps 4M bps
5000
6000
4000
5000
3000
Very idle
4000
3000 2000
2000
1000
1000 Cell No.
Cell No. 0
0
VS.IPDlMaxUsed.1(kbit/s) VS.IPDlMaxUsed.1(kbit/s)
CRH05 TRH03
16000 6000

14000
5000
12000
10000 4000
4M bps
8000
4M bps
3000 Very idle
6000
2000
4000
1000
2000
Cell No. Cell No.
0 0
VS.IPDlMaxUsed.1(kbit/s) VS.IPDlMaxUsed.1(kbit/s)

Iub traffic of Cell
XRH09 QRH04
25000 18000

16000
20000 14000
12000
15000 10000
4M bps 4M bps
10000
Very idle 8000
6000
4000
5000
2000
0
Cell No.
0 Cell No. VS.IPDlMaxUsed.1(kbit/s)
VS.IPDlMaxUsed.1(kbit/s)
SRH08
14000
12000
10000
8000
4M bps
6000
4000
2000
Cell No.
0
VS.IPDlMaxUsed.1(kbit/s)

Content
4 Summary

Characteristics of MBB in North Africa
Coverage User
2G Coverage95%, 3G Coverage < 50% Many 3G handset penetration is low, Libya is leading in
countries covered only a few cities, small-scale NA with~9.4%most of the countries below 5%
coverage, lack of expansion needs and wishes
Most of the 3G user are data card user (>30%)
A serious lack of indoor coverageIn Egypt,Morocco Smartphone contributes less throughputindicating
there are a few indoor coverage in hot areasmost that Broadband Access is the main demand in NA,
of the countries have no indoor coverage mobile internet is not developed.
Throughput Network
Average throughput per user: handset200~400MB Cell:70% cell have throughput less than 1Mbps;
data card(5-8GB) much higher than DM market The Site:30% NodeB have throughput less than 4Mbps
main reason is small user number, inappropriate max is 9Mbps
operator strategy (many package is unlimited) RNC: RNC throughput is between 100~300Mbpsthe
5% subscribers consume more than 80% throughput single user throughput in BH in RNC is 2~5 kbps
User experience in most of NodeBgood: 400~700Kbps PS: single user throughput in BH 2~5Kbps
bad: 150~300Kkbps

Thank you
www.huawei.com

Key Findings of MBB in North Afirca Region

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Key Findings of MBB in North Afirca Region

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Security Level:

Key Findings of MBB

HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential

1 MBB in North Africa

2 E2E traffic model analysis

3 User behavior characteristics analysis

HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 2

North Africa 3G/MBB market is in the initial stage

HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential

UMTS Total Market Sharing in NA

HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential

1 MBB in North Africa

2 E2E traffic model analysis

3 User behavior characteristics analysis

HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 6

HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 7

Huawei: 3*SGSN+ 2*GGSN XXXXX Traffic: 1.65- 797 NodeB with

HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 9

HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 10

HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 11

The RNC average Throughput rate of BH is about 275Mbps

HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 12

PS Total DL Traffic @BH 2150 Mbps

Very hot site

HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 13

HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential

Microwave Backhaul RNC

3G PS 60%: > 2Mbps

HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential

1 MBB in North Africa

2 E2E traffic model analysis

3 User behavior characteristics analysis

HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 16

BH of PS traffic is from 22:00 to 0:00idle is from 6:00 to 8:00

HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 17

HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 18

HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 19

The traffic of RNC XXXX is up to 1.85TB per day

HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 20

HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 21

Very hot(>460MB@BH) Hot(>310MB@BH) Normal(>160MB@BH) Cold

HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 22

User experience of light cell is better than heavy cell.

The XX MBB network could support much more user

HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 24

User Experience@BH of RNC BRH11 2, 1% 0,

HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 26

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Other Egypt operator A Europe operator

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Operator B Heavy network, the user experience is still good

HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 30

Iub throughput rate(Kbps)

Iub throughput rate(Kbps)

HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 31

Iub throughput rate(Kbps)

HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 32

1 MBB in North Africa

2 E2E traffic model analysis

3 User behavior characteristics analysis

HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 33

main reason is small user number, inappropriate max is 9Mbps

HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential Page 34

Huawei: 3SGSN+ 2GGSN XXXXX Traffic: 1.65- 797 NodeB with