IEEE ISGT Asia 2013 1569808075
Time series data mining for demand side decision
support
Neha Sengupta, Aloka S and Balakrishnan Narayanaswamy
IBM Research, India Research Lab
{neha.sengupta,alokas1,murali.balakrishnan}@in.ibm.com
AbstractTime series and data mining techniques have re-
cently become popular for smart grid planning and optimization
problems, in applications such as demand forecasting and re-
newable energy availability prediction. In the future liberalized
smart grid with distributed generation and time varying resource
pricing and availability, optimizing and sizing centralized and
distributed energy resources for prot maximization will become
more important. In this paper we investigate the usefulness of
time series clustering techniques to reduce the computational
complexity of smart grid optimization problems. We focus on
the demand side problem of local storage sizing for renewable
integration, while highlighting the importance and general appli-
cability of these techniques. We also build and deploy a web-based
decision support system to encourage the deployment of rooftop
solar.
I. I NTRODUCTION
Economic liberalization and environmental concerns have
led to an increased focus on incorporating renewable energy
sources into the grid [23]. Extracting the maximum value from
a time varying and intermittent renewable energy resource
requires intelligent optimization of generation [4], storage [24]
and loads [15]. In addition, smarter operation is seen as an
important step in improving efciency [21], reducing costs
and risks to the market participants [13] and increasing the
stability [19] of the next generation smart grid.
Distributed generation [1], especially solar and wind power
collected at different small generation locations, is gaining
considerable importance and their deployment is perceived as
vital in achieving various grid efciency goals [18]. Recent
studies have tried to address different issues that arise because
of the time varying nature of supply and loads. The battery
sizing problem has been addressed in [2], where the authors
compute Markovian models for a xed number of load classes
(4) for 3 distinct periods in a day (on-peak, off-peak and mid-
peak)[2] to size transformers and electrical storage.
Widespread adoption of micro-solar requires that users can
accurately estimate the gains of deploying them. In this work,
we outline an operational decision support system that enables
users to estimate the returns on renewable deployments. Rather
than focusing on building models of home consumption (the
model based approach) we construct multiple possible proles
of net home consumption (demand-local supply) and use
these multiple proles to size various grid sub-systems, in a
completely data driven approach. The primary advantage of
such a data mining approach is that we do not have to make
1
Hamidah Ismail and Satyajith Mathew
Universiti of Brunei Darussalam
{hamidah.ismail,sathyajith.mathew}@ubd.edu.bn
assumptions regarding the models of supply and demand (such
as stationarity or markovianity), At the same time, we see
that computational complexity is substantially reduced when
compared to algorithms that use the entire time series of
historical data. Our primary contributions are
We describe a general class of problems that arise in the
smart grid that can be formulated as optimization over a
large time series of historical data
We demonstrate how time series data mining techniques
can be used to substantially reduce the computational
complexity of solving these optimization problems with
limited reduction in accuracy
We formulate the problem of calculating the value of
storage for renewable integration as a linear program, and
use these techniques to estimate the value of storage
We draw conclusions on the usefulness of different sets of
features extracted from the time series and the appropriate
number of clusters for maximum benet
We highlight the applicability of this work by presenting
other problems in smart grid optimization where similar
techniques would be useful
We build a renewable power decision support system with
a web based interface that lets a microgrid planner take
decisions about installation parameters while taking into
account local and economic considerations.
II. P ROBLEM DESCRIPTION AND PRIOR WORK
We consider a setting where a renewable energy resource
such as a wind turbine or solar panel is to be installed along
with storage to cater to a local demand. Such a combined sys-
tem may be connected to the distribution grid. In such settings
homeowners, industries, hospitals, game parks or utilities that
own renewable generation facilities, have their own demand
and may prefer to use renewable generation to minimize their
cost using storage devices. This will become more prevalent
with governments investing in microgrids, homeowners getting
subsidies for investing in solar panels, utilities for renewable
generation sites and so forth [12].
Determining the size of the storage unit to be used along
with the renewable energy resource becomes a signicant
problem in this setting. Considerable research has gone into
the above storage sizing problem within slight variations of
the setting described. For example, [6] minimizes a unit
commitment schedule cost for an islanded/ grid connected
Micro Grid by appropriately sizing a battery storage system,
under various constraints like real power balance, spinning
reserve capacity, generator capacity etc. The optimization is
done over a period of one day with the forecast for load
obtained using wavelet neural networks, while that for wind
and solar obtained using time series forecasting and feed
forward neural networks respectively. For the pricing scheme,
the algorithm uses a typical price prole.In [20] the authors
present a mixed integer programming formulation to arrive
at the optimum size of the storage system in a micro-grid
under constraints specic to the storage system. The results are
based on the linear increase of storage cost (investment plus
maintenance) and exponential decrease of micro-grid operating
cost with the storage system. The optimal storage system
size is obtained by minimizing the sum of the two costs.
In reality the operating cost of the micro grid depends on
the load prole as well as the typical charge/discharge cycles
over different periods of time. The optimizations runs on data
collected over a period of 5 years. In [7] Renyi entropy-based
classication was used to classify Electrical Load Patterns
primarily to enable Electricity providers to present the elec-
tricity consumers commercial offers. The discovered clusters
were not used to solve problems such as shaving the peaks
in electricity demand (load). [5] solves the sizing problem for
energy storage for multiple storage control mechanisms. The
wind farm and energy storage output is forecasted using a 1
hour ahead persistence model. It does not take into account
any demand prole. The optimization is based on providing a
smooth supply curve in the face of variations in wind energy.
The authors of [8] formulate a stochastic Linear Program to
account for the inherent variability in wind and load proles.
Loss of Load Probability and Spilled Generation Probability
are minimized by the optimal storage. The planning horizon is
the period of a week, the assumption being that the weekday
load patterns are different from weekend load patterns, and that
the load pattern for one week repeats itself during a season.
The optimization for storage sizing, in a large part of the
prior work, has run on generation/load data corresponding
to either only the planning horizon (a day, or a week)as in
[8], or a large amount of time series data as in [3].While
the rst approach of running over a single prole for the
planning horizon, called the typical prole, has lower com-
putational complexity, it may not be able to capture many
variations/anomalies in the load across days or weeks and
therefore, the resulting value of storage may not be optimal for
days or weeks having load proles widely different from the
typical prole. On the other hand, if the optimization runs over
a large volume of data (several years), almost every possibility
of variation in the load/wind can be assumed to be captured,
and the optimal solution remains optimal for each situation
that may arise. However, this amounts to a single huge LP
with decision variables corresponding to every time step over
the years. Our experiments show that a MATLAB program for
this optimization requires large amounts of memory. Another
option is to run a smaller LP for each day and then take the
average of the solutions. Although this amounts to solving
2
many smaller LPs, the procedure on 5 years of data could
take about 5 hours to complete. For EV scheduling, where a
new schedule must be computed every 6 hours or so, the run
time becomes a major barrier.
We propose an approach to achieve a tradeoff between
computational complexity and optimality in the above. Time
series clustering techniques can be used to cluster the large
data comprising of T days, into n clusters. Each of these
clusters then represents a behavior pattern of the electrical
load and supply. For example, it is probable that if the data
for a household were grouped into 2 clusters, one would
observe that the behavior each represents corresponds to the
weekday/weekend pattern. The optimization algorithm then
runs over the n clusters. In this paper we show that having
1 < n < T clusters is useful. Note that 1 cluster corresponds
to the average which is often referred to as the typical usage
prole and used, for example, in [14] and T clusters corre-
sponds to using the entire history of time series directly, which
is computationally expensive. We quantify the computational
and accuracy trade-offs of such a clustering approach and show
promising results.
A. Background on time series clustering
Clustering is the process of identifying structure in unla-
beled data by objectively organizing data into homogeneous
groups where the within-group-object similarity is maximized
and the between-group-object dissimilarity is maximized
[22]. While there has been a lot of work on clustering static
data, more recently these methods have been extended to the
clustering of time series data [16]. In the context of this paper,
clustering is applied on the households electricity load and
supply data, and we capture as clusters the various behavioral
patterns of the electric load and supply.
In any clustering process, there are two important steps : the
choice of features and the choice of clustering algorithm. The
features should reect prior knowledge on what makes time
series similar to one another, and what makes them different
for a particular application. In our application we use three
features to measure the distance between any two time series
Distance in time domain : This is the Euclidean distance
between a subset of the indices of two time series treating
them as vector in RT . This feature captures aspects of
when energy is being used and how much is consumed
in each time slot.
Distance in frequency domain : Here, given two time
series, we convert them into the frequency domain, nor-
malize and then compute Euclidean distance at a subset
of the frequencies. Time series of similar consumption
patterns will be similar in this feature space.
Once the features have been selected, what remains is the
choice of clustering algorithm. There are a number of possible
choices of clustering algorithm [11]. We use spectral clus-
tering, a very powerful algorithm that has found application
in a number of areas ranging from data mining to machine
translation [9].
B. Spectral Clustering a planning horizon of T timeslots. For each 1 t T , we
Clustering is done in any eld of scientic data, with the dene,
aim of nding out groups of similar behavior in the data. ct : Amount of charge added to the battery at t. It is

Spectral clustering refers to the group of algorithms that make positive if the battery charges, negative if it discharges.
use of the eigenvalues of the afnity(similarity) matrix of the ft : Demand at time t, is actually the difference prole,

data to perform dimensionality reduction, that can be used for so that a positive ft indicates surplus at t, and a negative
clustering. Due to space constraints we do not describe the ft indicates a decit at t.
spectral clustering algorithm in detail, but refer the interested pt : Purchased electricity at t.

reader to the comprehensive tutorial [17]. Assuming the battery is empty at the beginning of the
planning horizon, the linear program that minimizes the pur-
III. D ESCRIPTION OF THE METHOD chased amount of electricity for a grid connected system with
For a system that is connected to the grid, so that electricity a uniform pricing model, is written as follows:
can be purchased in times of decit, the optimal storage size

T
should minimize the total cost of purchased electricity, or in min pt subject to (1)
other words, maximize the utilization of the energy generated t=1
from the renewable source. The decision, therefore, depends k 
k
greatly on the accuracy of the predicted cost of purchased ct S, ct 0 k {1, ..., T } (2)
electricity. An inaccurate estimate could lead to a suboptimal t=1 t=1
solution for the storage size. pt ct ft , pt 0, t (3)
However, for a given storage size, the calculation of the
For a system that sees a TOU pricing, the above linear
purchased electricity is also, in itself, a minimization problem.
program has to be slightly changed. We dene, pricet as price
This is because, different charge/discharge schedules of the
of electricity at time t. The linear program changes to the
battery lead to different sums of purchased electricity. An
following,
optimal charge/discharge schedule for the battery, therefore,
minimizes the purchased electricity even for a xed storage 
T

size. This minimization must be done in view of the price min pricet pt , subject to (4)
t=1
prole that the grid offers, the load prole, and the wind power
generation prole over the planning horizon. d 
d
ct S, ct 0 d {1, ..., T } (5)
The grid, in turn, can provide various pricing mechanisms.
t=1 t=1
If pricing is uniform, the cost is the same as the amount of pt ct ft , pt 0, t (6)
purchased electricity. However, under a pricing model like
Time of Use pricing, the cost can be very different. As a result To estimate the purchased electricity for a particular storage,
the minimization has to be done with the Time of Use price we run one of the above LPs (depending on the pricing model)
prole in view. To simplify things, we subtract the renewable over the planning horizon. However, given a large amount
energy generation from the load at each timeslot to obtain of data, perhaps worth several planning horizons (days), the
a difference prole. The cost of purchased electricity is then difference prole that is used as input to the LP can be
computed using this difference prole. constructed in three different ways, and therefore the nal
solution computed in three different ways.
1) The typical prole, or the average over the days, is used
and the LP is run only once to give the typical solution.
2) The complete data is used, and the LP is run once for
each day, and the average of these solutions is the true
solution.
3) The data is clustered into n clusters where, 1 < n < T ,
and the LP is run n times, once for each cluster. The
nal solution is the weighted average of the individual
solutions. It is called the cluster solution.

Fig. 1. Generation, Load, and Difference Proles

The system is characterized by a difference prole f , a price

prole p and a storage of size S. The optimization runs over

3
 Based on this methodology, a decision support system
for the end user which does storage and resource sizing
simultaneously is described in the next section.
IV. S OLAR /W IND P OWER D ECISION S UPPORT S YSTEM
We have a real world system running which helps the
user make decisions regarding setting up a renewable energy
generation system at microlevel. The system suggests the
storage size to be purchased along with the energy harnessing
resource.The system under development is a web based deci-
sion support system for home and small scale users seeking
to deploy rooftop solar panels. It is currently operational in
Brunei. The website helps users decide on a) the size of
rooftop solar b) the kind of solar panel c) amount of storage
and d) expected savings and costs, based on the load of
the consumer including estimated information on location,
tilt etc. The return period of the expense incurred for the
purchase of solar panel is also provided. Incorporation of
considerations related to the wind resources into this system
is under development.
A. Interactions
The system takes inputs from the customer including the
roof size area, type of the home load of the customer,
type of the panel. In a separate work we have evaluated
the performance of 6 popular kinds of solar panels (namely
single crystalline, polycrystalline, microcrystalline, amorphous
silicon, Copper Indium Selenium (CIS) and Heterojunction
with Intrinsic Thin Layer (HIT)) for more than one year in the
specic tropical climates of Brunei [10], under actual usage
conditions. This information is used to estimate the seasonal
time varying efciencies of particular solar panel types.
The system has a user friendly interface which lets the
user select the roof top area interactively through a Google
map widget. The website lets the user navigate to a particular
location in google maps, click on the corners of the roof
and select the area where the panel needs to be incorporated
without expecting the user to have accurate information about
roof top area. The user can also select the preferred panel type
from the multiple options available in the market along with
the costs and efciencies.
Once the customer submits the required inputs, the system
provides output regarding design related information in the
form of Solar panel area, tilt, average daily output (KWh),
average annual savings, storage capacity to be installed (kWh),
and break even time (Years).
Fig. 2. Inputs including roof selection in our system
4
B. Nomenclature
Avgd0 - Average daily output
Ot - Output at time t
Avgsr - Average daily solar irradiation (kW h)
It -Solar irradiation at time t(kW h)
CP - Cost of the panel (cents per unit)
L - Type of load
T - Electricity Tariff(cents/unit)
A - Roof top area (m )
2
Ef ft - Efciency of the panel at time t(%)
Avgas - Average annual savings(in Brunei Dollars)
BET - Break Even Time(Years)
SS -Storage Size(kWh)
EP - Electricity Purchased from the grid(kWh)
Based on the collected data from real load proles in the
area and actual solar irradiation and power output from panels,
we can calculate relevant outputs to display, including
Average daily output- provides an estimate of solar panel

output. Avgdo = T1 t It A Ef ft L 10.
Average annual savings - in terms of energy usage by
incorporating solar panels Avgas = 365(T /100)Avgdo
Break Even Time - provides the user with a summary
of how long it will take to retrieve the amount spent on
solar panel installation BET = CP 1000/(Avgas ).
Storage Size to be installed.
Amount of electricity to be purchased from the grid.
While other outputs can also be calculated, Figure 3 shows
the most relevant ones which allow users to decide on amount
of storage, solar panel size and type they wish to install. The
Fig. 3. Sample of outputs available in operational decision
support system,
details of the experiments used for determining the storage
size and electricity purchased are described in the following
section.
V. E XPERIMENTAL EVALUATION
A. Description of the data
Load data for the experiments include two sets of household
level electricity consumption data over a period of 61 and 85
days obtained from sources [2]. All results were veried for
both data sets. The solar data for the corresponding days has
been obtained from an operational 1.2 MW grid integrated
solar farm, intended to study the feasibility of solar integration
from micro-grids and the wind data is from a nearby wind
mast. For both wind and solar experiments, the size of the
renewable energy installation was varied such that over the N
days, the total power output was a specic fraction of the total
load, called the load constant. The available power data thus
obtained was subtracted from load data in order to build the
difference prole, which was used for the optimization.
B. Time Series Clustering
The difference proles for N days (where each days prole
is a time series over T slots) was clustered using the Jordan
Weiss clustering method described in Section II-A. The data
was clustered in three different ways, based on the time Fig. 5. Improvement over clusters for different storage sizes
attribute, the frequency attribute and a weighted combination
of time and frequency attributes.
The advantage of clustering is demonstrated in terms of
the increased accuracy of the solution to the minimization
problem for purchased amount of electricity with increasing
cluster numbers, for different storage sizes. As the number
of clusters increases, it is expected that the cluster solution
should get closer to the true solution, and farther from the
typical solution.
In Figs. 4 and 5, for 1 < number of clusters < N , the
value depicts the cluster solution. As expected, the typical
solution grossly underestimates the value for the purchased Fig. 6. Purchased amount vs storage size for various approaches
amount of electricity. As number of clusters increases, the
cluster solution climbs towards the optimal solution. In some
cases however, performance uctuates with increasing number Fig. 7 shows the purchased amount with varying storage
of clusters. This may happen due to the inherent tendency of size. While solar energy is persistent through the day, it is
the data to be more suitably clustered into a certain number altogether absent at night. Wind energy on the other hand
of clusters than others. uctuates all through the day but is very rarely absent for
For a storage size of 1 KWh, Figure 4 shows purchased long periods of time. With very large storage sizes solar energy
amount for different generation sizes, i.e. for load constant = gets stored in the day time when there is almost no decit,
0.2,0.5, and 0.8. and the stored energy gets used in the nightime, and therefore
purchased amount of electricity from the grid is quite low. For
small storage sizes however, decit all through the night must
be catered to with purchased electricity from the grid. The
solar resource is therefore, more protably combined with a
large storage installation. For the wind resource however, both
decit and excess happen all through the day and night, and
it is therefore more cost effective with small storage sizes.
Table I shows a comparison between the different ap-
proaches to nd the solution, in terms of the planning horizon,
the number of optimization variables per linear program,
number of linear programs to be solved, total time taken by
Fig. 4. Improvement over clusters for different generation sizes

Fig. 5 shows the improvement in accuracy with number of

clusters for different storage sizes. Fig. 6 shows the drop in
purchased amount over various storage sizes. The optimization
is limited by the reduced wind/solar generation, and therefore,
the difference is less marked with increasing storage size. We
see that the estimated purchased amount of electricity from
the grid using clusters on the data are signicantly closer to
the true purchased amount than those estimated using a mean
or typical difference prole. Moreover, a large portion of this
improvement is achieved with clusters less than 10, thereby
illustrating power of the clustering technique in achieving high Fig. 7. Difference between purchased amounts for wind and solar
accuracy for a low computational complexity. resource

5
the solver, and the optimal solution. When one tries to solve
a large linear program for all the timeslots in the 61 days
together, a MATLAB program runs out of memory. Therefore,
the direct approach is infeasible.
TABLE I
C OMPARISON
Planning Horizon Opt Vars LPs Time Optimal Solution
1 day (Typical Prole) 576 1 10 125630
2 clusters 576 2 20 182280
5 clusters 576 5 50 182480
61 days (individual LPs) 576 61 610 240240
61 days (full data) 35,136 1 NA NA
VI. C ONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE WORK
In our work, we have shown that using time series clustering
to produce two or more proles can improve optimization
performance and sizing estimates substantially when compared
to using just a single typical prole. At the same time there is
large computational savings when compared to using all the
time series data at once. We highlight the need to modify
the time series data mining techniques and features used
depending on the optimization problem to be solved. On a
practical level, we have shown that these techniques highlight
the difference between solar and wind availability and the need
to consider the co-occurrence with actual load proles for
sizing. We have also demonstrated the practicality of these
techniques in a deployed DER decision support system.
While we have demonstrated the applicability of our tech-
niques to the storage sizing problem, the approach is very
general and can be applied to a number of other problems
in the next generation smart grid including demand and
generation scheduling, transformer sizing and EV charging.
Investigating the wider applicability of our approach is one
important direction of future research. At the same time a
number of parameters in the clustering process were chosen
arbitrarily or through expert knowledge. Understanding the
effect of these parameter choices is required in order for this
approach to have wider applicability, and this will be a focus
of our future research efforts. As future work one may also
extend the work to the regions where seasonal variations are
large, since there is a wider scope of signicant cost reduction
using storage in such areas.
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