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Claudio Bertolotti
Afghanistan faces a major milestone in 2014: the withdrawal of the ISAF (International Security Assistance
Force) troops by the end of the year.
ISAFs combat troops are scheduled to leave Afghan soil, ending a 13year war against an unbeatable insurgency.
The new NATO military mission which will be formalized through the signing of the Bilateral Security
Agreement (BSA) by the next president of Afghanistan (successor to Hamid Karzai) should begin on January
2015. This is likely to have deep implications for NATOs role in Afghanistan.
In brief:.
NATO forces remaining in Afghanistan from 2015 in order to make an enduring contribution to stability, could be
about 8,000 to 12,000 advisors/trainers and counterterrorism and special forces, largely from the US; and, as
declared by President Obama, the US plans to withdraw the last American troops from Afghanistan by the end of
2016 when there would be only a reduced force able to protect the embassy in Kabul and to support Afghans in
security work.
This transition process is marked by interconnected dynamics:
on the one hand, a decrease in territory under the control of Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF)
has been recorded;
on the other, the reduction of ISAF troops led to a lack in security conditions, because of the increased
operational capabilities of Armed Opposition Groups (AOG) and decreased ANSF capability (fewer direct
actions against ISAFNATO forces and an increase of attacks against the ANSF have been seen);
finally, the Afghan statebuilding process has not been achieved, leaving the country without primary
infrastructure for development. The Afghan government is currently powerless, unable to maintain stability
within the country and economically dependent on the international community: in brief it is not far from
substantial failure.
Claudio Bertolotti (PhD), Strategic Analyst and CrossCultural Advisor, is Senior External Researcher at
Military Centre for Strategic Studies (CeMiSS)
ISPI2014
1
The opinions expressed herein are strictly personal and do not necessarily reflect the position of ISPI.
The ISPI online papers are also published with the support of Cariplo
1 See, Us Government Accountability Office report Afghanistan security: Longstanding challenges may affect progress and sustainment of Afghan
national security forces, 2013, and CNA Strategic Studies, Independent Assessment of the Afghan National Security Forces, 2014.
engaged in Afghanistan.
the central state in which NATO, with its function, tasks and
responsibilities reduced, will assume the role of a minor but not marginal
player in the last fragile phase of the transition process.