The Indo-Pakistan Unrest A Territorial

Conflict With Nuclear Consequences

Religion has divided humanity ever since its roots pervaded our societies. No less can be said
of the conflict between India and Pakistan, which has been raging ever since the religiously-
fuelled splintering of Pakistan from the freshly liberated India in 1947 [1]. Immediately after
the partition, the border state of Jammu and Kashmir became hotly contested real-estate, with
India claiming it on official grounds when the head of Kashmir acceded to India, but Pakistan
claiming it on religious grounds due to the Muslim-majority population in the region. Four
wars have been fought and several skirmishes have taken place over the last 70 years to gain
greater control over Kashmir, but the military fronts have solidified on either side of the Line
of Control, a de-facto border carving the state into two parts [2] [3] (see Figure 1).

Figure 1. The Line of Control [8]

In 1974, India tested its first nuclear device, the Smiling Buddha, kick-starting a nuclear arms
race with Pakistan. While India has adopted a nuclear no first-strike policy, Pakistan refuses
to do so and makes it quite ambiguous as to what warrants the use of its nuclear arsenal [4].
While one can argue that the limited use of tactical nuclear weapons may cause either side to
cease hostilities, the US discovered during Cold War simulations that a small-scale nuclear
strike would inevitably lead to a full-scale nuclear assault from both sides [6] there can be
no small nuclear conflict.

Pakistan is believed to possess around 140 nuclear warheads, and India 130, which sound like
childs play to Americas 6800 [5]. However, a nuclear war between India and Pakistan
would kill hundreds of millions and cause a global nuclear winter, studies involving computer
simulations have shown [7]. In a theoretical spat between the two nations involving 100
Hiroshima-sized weapons, over 20 million would be killed from the direct effects of the
blasts over main cities, and millions more would perish as firestorms spread. Up to 5 million
tonnes of fallout would be generated as dust rises into the atmosphere and spreads across the
world, blocking sunlight and dropping temperatures (see Figure 2). Furthermore, large
volumes of the ozone layer would be destroyed after the nuclear explosions, resulting in
greater UV exposure and higher chances of skin cancer. Growing seasons would be
significantly shortened in the northern hemisphere and worldwide grain stocks would become
rapidly depleted, causing hundreds of millions of people to starve to death.

Figure 2. Distribution of smoke around the world [5]

This geographically isolated conflict has the potential to cause worldwide death and misery.
If anything, the simulation presented here should act as a deterrent to the use of nuclear
weaponry. The Indo-Pakistan conflict born from petty religious differences could ultimately
escalate into a nuclear holocaust if left unchecked.

References:

[1] http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/partition-pakistan-india-70-years-
radcliffe-line-british-empire-hindu-muslim-a7887631.html

[2] http://www.nuclearfiles.org/menu/key-issues/nuclear-weapons/history/post-cold-
war/india-pakistan/india-pakistan-conflict.htm

[3] http://asiasociety.org/education/india-pakistan-relations-50-year-history

[4] http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/30/opinions/india-pakistan-do-nuclear-weapons-stop-war-
kugelman-opinion/index.html

[5] http://www.nucleardarkness.org/warconsequences/fivemilliontonsofsmoke/

[6] https://warisboring.com/no-you-cant-have-a-small-nuclear-war/#.cmcbngn39

[7] https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat

[8] https://qph.ec.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-67cd543b8386b76f82e9109fe3146909-c