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All of these statements are about probability. We see words like "chance",
"less likely", "probably" since we don't know for sure something will happen,
but we realise there is a very good chance that it will.
In the case of the lottery (or Toto), there is a very good chance that some
things (like a win) will not happen!
To decide "how likely" an event is, we need to count the number of times an
event could occur and compare it to the total number of possible events. Such
a comparison is called the probability of the particular event occurring.
The mathematical theory of counting is known as combinatorial analysis.
Continues below
In this Chapter
Counting
1. Factorial Notation
2. Basic Principles of Counting
3. Permutations
4. Combinations
Probability
7. Conditional Probability
8. Independent and Dependent Events
9. Mutually Exclusive Events
10. Bayes Theorem
Probability Distributions
1. Factorial Notation
For the following sections on counting, we need a simple way of writing the
product of all the positive whole numbers up to a given number. We
use factorial notation for this.
Definition of n!
n factorial is defined as the product of all the integers from 1 to n (the order of
multiplying does not matter) .
a) 5! = 5 4 3 2 1 = 120
c) 0! = 1 (this is a convention)
d) 2! = 2
Exercise
Show answer
NOTE: We conclude from this answer and the answer for (d) above that we
cannot simply cancel a fraction containing factorials. That is:
\frac{{{10}!}}{{{5}!}}\ne{2}!5!10!2!
We use factorial notation throughout this chapter, starting in
the Permutations section.
On this page...
Number of outcomes
Addition rule
Multiplication rule
Before we learn some of the basic principles of counting, let's see some of the
notation we'll need.
So in the example,
{n}{\left({E}\right)}={7}n(E)=7,
Continues below
Addition Rule
Let event E describe the situation where either event E1 or event E2 will occur.
The number of times event E will occur can be given by the expression:
where
Example 1
Find n(E).
Show answer
=2+5
=7
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Example 2
In how many ways can a number be chosen from {1}1 to {22}22 such that
Show answer
n(E1) = 7
E2 = multiples of {8}8:
E2 = {8, 16}
n(E2) = 2
n(E1) = 11
E2 = multiples of {3}3:
n(E2) = 7
Multiplication Rule
Now consider the case when two events E1 and E2 are to be performed and
the events E1 and E2 areindependent events i.e. one does not affect the
other's outcome.
Example 3
Say the only clean clothes you've got are {2}2 t-shirts and {4}4 pairs of
jeans. How many different combinations can you choose?
Answer
We have {2}2 t-shirts and with each t-shirt we could pick {4}4 pairs of jeans.
Altogether there are
E2 = "choose jeans"
Suppose that event E1 can result in any one of n(E1) possible outcomes; and
for each outcome of the event E1, there are n(E2) possible outcomes of
event E2.
Together there will be n(E1) n(E2) possible outcomes of the two events.
Tip
That is, if event E is the event that both E1 and E2 must occur, then
What is the total number of possible outcomes when a pair of coins is tossed?
Show answer
They are independent, since neither toss affects the outcome of the other
toss.
Example 5
Show answer
Show answer
We have 2 choices in the first row, 4 in the second row and 3 in the third row.
Together, we will have
Example 7
Image source
In the excellent Monoface (external site), we can change the head, left and
right eyes, nose and mouth of some zany guys who work at momo-1.com.
We are told that there are 759,375 possible faces. Where does this number
come from?
If they were to let us change the chin as well, how many possible
combinations would there be?
Show answer
There are {15}15 people in the photos (I got this by counting the number of
heads) and there are {5}5 different options that you can change (head, left
eye, right eye, nose and mouth).
So there are
{15}\times{15}\times{15}\times{15}\times{15}={15}^{5}={759},{375}
1515151515=155=759,375 combinations
If we add another possible event (changing the chin), we have {6}6 possible
options, so the answer is simply:
{15}^{6}={11},{390},{625}156=11,390,625 combinations
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