Proceedings of the ASME 2017 Power Conference Joint With ICOPE-17

POWER2017-ICOPE-17
June 26-30, 2017, Charlotte, North Carolina, USA

POWER-ICOPE2017-3077

A SPARE PARTS DEMAND PREDICTION METHOD FOR WIND FARM

BASED ON PERIODIC MAINTENANCE STRATEGY

Chen Zhang
School of Energy and Power Engineering,
Huazhong University of Science and Technology,
Wuhan 430074, China
zhangchen710@yeah.net;

Tao Yang, Wei Gao Weiqiu Chen, Jing He,

School of Energy and Power Engineering, Xingwang Yang
Huazhong University of Science and Guangdong Yudean Zhanjiang
Technology, Wind Power Co., LTD.
Wuhan 430074, China Zhanjiang 524043, China

ABSTRACT guidance for the actual operation and maintenance of wind

Nowadays, the management level and information
construction of wind power industry are still relatively
backward, for example, the existing maintenance models for
wind farm are much too single, and corrective maintenance
strategy is the most commonly used, which means that
maintenance measures are initiated only after a breakdown
occurs in the system. Moreover, the wind farm spare parts
management is out-dated, no practical and accurate spares
demand assessment method is available. In order to enrich the
choices of maintenance methods and eliminate the subjective
influence in the demand analysis of spare parts, a spare parts
demand prediction method for wind farm based on periodic
maintenance strategy considering combination of different
maintenance models for wind farms is proposed in this paper,
which consists of five major steps, acquire the reliability
functions of components, establish the maintenance strategy, set
the maintenance parameters, maintenance strategy simulation
and spare parts demand prediction. The discrete event
simulation method is used to solve the prediction model, and
results demonstrate the operability and practicality of the
proposed demand forecasting method, which can provide
farms.
Key words: Wind Farm; Spare parts; Demand prediction;
Periodic maintenance strategy; Discrete event simulation
INTRODUCTION
With the increasing shortage of energy sources and
environmental degradation issues, developing the new energy
has become more and more important. Wind energy, as a
renewable and clean energy, has been an essential part of the
global energy industry, with the increasing of its capacity. The
newly installed capacity of global wind power reached
63013MW in 2015, achieving the 22% annual market growth
rate. The global wind power total installed capacity was
432419MW by the end of year 2015, with the annual growth
rate of 17%[1]. However, the development of wind power
industry mainly benefits from the progress of power generation
technologies and support of government policies, but the
management level and information construction are still
relatively backward. Corrective maintenance strategy is the
most common way of maintenance in the wind power plant,
which means that the maintenance actions are only taken when
components are damaged. Some wind farms also adopt the
regular maintenance strategy as a supplement. Researches have

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 been taken in maintenance strategy theory since 1940s. Wang et To enrich the choices of maintenance strategies and
al. [2] proposed an economic optimization model for multi- illustrate the maintenance effects, a periodic maintenance
component group preventive maintenance, by analyzing the strategy considering combination of different maintenance
optimal preventive maintenance policy of equipment single- models for wind farms is proposed. Further more, a spare parts
component. Shi et al. [3] established a real-time remaining demand prediction method is put forward based on the
useful life prediction model, by using stochastic filtering theory maintenance strategy in this paper, which consists of five major
under the imperfect maintenance strategies based on present steps, acquire the reliability functions of components, establish
moment and history monitoring information. They also the maintenance strategy, set the maintenance parameters,
proposed a maintenance strategy of imperfect preventive maintenance strategy simulation and spare parts demand
maintenance and replacement strategy by taking average prediction. The discrete event simulation method is used to
solve the prediction model, and results demonstrate the
remaining useful life as threshold, and established an optimal
durability and practicality of the proposed demand forecasting
model to choose the threshold of preventive maintenance as
method, which can provide guidance for the actual operation
optimal variable and the minimum average maintenance cost as
and maintenance of wind farms.
object function. Ding and Tian [4] considered three types of
preventive maintenance actions, including perfect, imperfect DEMAND PREDICTION METHOD
and two-level actions for opportunistic maintenance Figure 1 shows the main flow chart for the demand
approaches. prediction method, which mainly consists of five major steps,
At present, spare parts inventory management decisions for acquire the reliability functions of components, establish the
wind farms mainly depend on personal experience to a large maintenance strategy, set the maintenance parameters,
extent or mathematical statistics theory. Spare parts refer to the maintenance strategy simulation and spare parts demand
components being prepared for replacement in advance to prediction. The following section describes the process in
shorten repair time and reduce maintenance cost. The object of detail.
spare parts management is to reserve stocks reasonably and
ensure the needs of equipments maintenance with the minimum
spare funds to improve the reliability and economy of
equipments. Demand forecasting methods can be divided into
two categories: qualitative prediction method and quantitative
prediction method. Qualitative prediction method is based on
the subjective judgment and intuition, which mostly consists of
department heads brainstorming method, Delphi method,
salespeople opinion collection method, consumer surveys and
so on. Comparatively, quantitative prediction method uses the
mathematical models and historical data to predict demands.
SUN Peng [5] proposed two spare parts stock-holding model.
The one was on the maximize the parts MTBF(Mean Time
Between Failures). And the other was on the minimize the unit
cost. In order to obtain the optimized solution, a multi-criteria
target model was proposed. LIU [6] put forward the topic
selection background, aim and significance of the investigation
as well as research thinking and approaches. Then both the
development of the nuclear power industry at home and abroad
and the general profile of China General Nuclear Power Group Fig.1 Flow chart for demand prediction
were reviewed, with the feature of supply of spare parts in 1. Acquire the reliability functions of components
electric power enterprises being introduced. Nowadays, the Reliability refers to the ability of components to complete
researches on the spare parts inventory management for wind the intended functions within the specific time and under
farms rarely take the maintenance strategy into account. Qi et.al specific conditions. Reliability function is the function of time,
[7] assumed that the demand was subject to Poisson distribution changing from 1 to 0 to represent the status change from new to
and the model was built with the expected value as demand damage. There are different reliability functions for different
input. WU et.al [8] proposed a AB2C classification method components in different wind farms. Weibull function and
suitable for the characteristics of wind farm spare parts, exponential function are the most common reliability functions.
combining ABC classification method with 3A taxonomy. A two-parameter Weibull distribution function is considered to
WANG et.al [9] established a joint optimization model of be an appropriate expression of the wind turbine system.
condition-based maintenance and spare parts ordering for
deteriorated systems with uncertainties.

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 t Replacement maintenance actions return the failed
Ri (t ) exp( ( ) i )
i Minimum maintenance actions do not change the reliability
where is the scale parameter which affects the size
proportion of Weibull function curve, and is the shape
parameter which affects the shape of Weibull function curve.
Normally, the reliability functions of components can be
obtained from the historical fault data, or provided by
equipments manufacturers in advance.
2. Establish the maintenance strategy
In the existing wind farms, maintenance actions are only
taken when damages occur in wind turbines or the operation
time reaches its presupposed maintenance interval.
Maintenance staffs just replace the failed components and never
consider the combination of maintenance actions.
In order to truly reflect the operation and maintenance
situation of wind turbine components and be more adjustable, a
periodic maintenance strategy considering replacement
maintenance, imperfect maintenance and minimal maintenance
is proposed. Figure 2 briefly describes the maintenance
decision process.
Fig.2 Maintenance decision process
Wind turbine system is a series system, failure of primary
components often results in the shut down of whole system.
During the operation of wind turbine, a series of detection
methods such as current signal, voltage signal, vibration signal
and temperature signal can be used to obtain the status
information. The detailed judgment process of selections of
maintenance strategy is discussed below.
1) If any random failure occurs in the system, to compare
the component reliability with the replacement threshold and
maintenance threshold. If the reliability reaches the
replacement threshold, replacement maintenance actions are
taken. Otherwise, if the reliability reaches the maintenance
threshold, imperfect maintenance actions are taken. Otherwise,
minimum maintenance actions are taken.
2) If no random failure occurs, then to determine whether
the operation time reaches the preventive maintenance period.
The component will continue operation if the answer is no.
Otherwise, if the reliability reaches the replacement threshold,
replacement maintenance actions are taken. If the reliability
reaches the maintenance threshold, imperfect maintenance
actions are taken. Otherwise, no maintenance actions are taken.
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component to a totally new one, thats the reliability becomes 1.
function of component. The effects of imperfect maintenance
actions are described by Improvement Factor
C pmi c
i (a )b*i*( i d )
C pr
i 1, 2,3...N 1
Where C pmi means the cost of i th imperfect
maintenance, C pr is the replacement maintenance cost, a is the
maintenance cost adjustment factor, b is the maintenance time
adjustment factor ( b 0 ), N is the maintenance times,
(i d ) c is the Stanford -B curve learning curve. To
characterize the effects of experience and learning process of
maintenance staffs, the general learning effect model is
introduced. [10]
c
Y C (x d )
1
Where d means the existing empirical parameter, the
value size reflects the impact of maintenance experience on
maintenance effects ( 1 d 10 ). c is the learning effect
adjustment coefficient, which means that repair effect is
enhanced with the increase of maintenance numbers for a
certain kind of fault condition.
c= lnk
ln2
Where k is the experience curve percentage.
There is a linear relationship between C pmi and
maintenance times
C pmi Cmf i Cmv
Where Cmf is the fixed cost of imperfect maintenance,
Cmv is the variable cost of imperfect maintenance
In general, the above parameters are correspondingly
different for different wind farms, different equipments and
different operation environment.
3. Set the maintenance parameters
The preventive maintenance period, replacement
threshold and maintenance threshold are set based on the
reliability functions according to the wind turbine reliability
national standards and wind farms safe and reliable operation
requirements, together with wind farm operation environment.
The environment factors include wind farm latitude,
temperature and humidity, wind scale annual precipitation, the
grid load and so.
In general, the higher the reliability requirements of wind
farm safe operation is, the higher the replacement threshold and
 maintenance threshold are set and the shorter the preventive
maintenance period is.
Similarly, the longer the operation time becomes, the
higher the replacement threshold and maintenance threshold are
set and the shorter the preventive maintenance period is.
The maintenance strategy we have proposed can truly
reflect actual operation and maintenance situation of
components and be adjusted to respond to wind farm situations,
with strong operability and flexibility
4. Maintenance strategy simulation
With the development of information technology,
modeling and simulation methodologies have been widely used
in variety of technical fields to solve engineering problems. The
nature of the simulation is to mimic the real-world process or
system operation over time, resulting in a man-made history for
observation, to analyze and deduce the operating characteristics
of the actual system. The simulation model can be further
subdivided into static or dynamic, deterministic or stochastic,
discrete or continuous.
The discrete event system (DES) simulation method is to
establish mathematical model for systems whose status only
change in a number of discrete time points due to driving of
random events, and test the model on computer. The DES is
characterized by the fact that changes in system are triggered
by different events, the time and influence of which are totally
random. In the wind farm maintenance and spare parts demand
prediction system, the occurrence of random failure,
maintenance actions, spare parts demand are some typical
discrete events.
Studies have been commissioned on discrete event system
over the past few decades. Zupan, N and Herakovic, N [11]
presented a case study for the optimization of the production
line by using the balancing and discrete event simulation
approach. The results of the combination of the line balancing
and further process optimization raised the production rate of
the process enormously. Madhu Sachidananda et.al [12]
discussed the application of discrete event simulation (DES)
and its ability to model the various scenarios for dynamic
decision making in biopharmaceutical manufacturing sector. .
The simulation model of the proposed manufacturing process
had shown significant improvement over the current process in
terms of throughout time reduction, better resource utilisation,
operating cost reduction, reduced bottlenecks etc. QIN Yanchao
[13] studied on the modeling and simulation of automobile
spare parts warehouse logistics system, especially on the
process of the orders in and out. To research the discrete event
simulation modeling and preliminary optimization was in order
to improve the resources efficiency and reduce the costs. LI
Bin [14] focused on the simulation modeling of the customs
door.This thesis mainly made a research on the customs door
area of the transportation system of the bonded port, aiming to
improve the customs door operation efficiency of the bonded
port, taking a search on the simulation modeling and optimizing
methods of the discrete event.
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In this paper, the discrete event simulation method is used
to solve the maintenance strategy we have proposed.
5. Spare parts demand prediction
We can obtain the reliability curve over time of
components by solving the maintenance strategy model through
discrete event simulation method. And then the replacement
and maintenance arrangements of a component can be
predicted, so as the spare parts demand. Before the prediction,
we assume that only the replacement maintenance actions
require for spare parts, imperfect maintenance and minimum
maintenance actions only need general maintenance tools.
After extending the prediction process to other wind
turbines, the spare parts demand of the whole wind farm can be
obtained.
NUMERICAL EXAMPLES
In this section, a specific wind turbine instance is
proposed to illustrate the spare parts demand prediction
method. The discrete event simulation method is used to solve
the prediction model.
In this specific implementation case, there supposes to be
40 wind turbines in the wind farm with a operation time of 20
years. The preventive maintenance period is set to be 180 days,
the replacement reliability threshold is 0.9 and maintenance
reliability threshold is 0.95. The the fixed cost of imperfect
maintenance Cmf is 100, the variable cost of imperfect
maintenance Cmv is 200 and the replacement maintenance cost
C pr is 10000. The maintenance cost adjustment factor a is 1,
the maintenance time adjustment factor b is 0.4, the learning
effect adjustment coefficient c is In(0.9) / In(2) and the
existing empirical parameter d is 4. The scale parameter of
Weibull function is 2400 and the shape parameter is 3.
The discrete event simulation method is used to solve the
prediction model. Fig 3 shows the reliability change curve of
one wind turbine with the horizontal axis of simulation time
and vertical axis of reliability. We can obtain the reliability data
changing over time and estimate residual life of components.
0.9 is the presupposed replacement reliability threshold, which
shows that the component must be replaced when its reliability
reaches 0.9. Fig 4 demonstrates the spare parts demand of the
whole wind farm over time.
Fig.3 Reliability change curve of one wind turbine

Fig.4 Spare parts demand prediction figure of the farm
CONCLUSIONS
With the advancement of wind power generation
technology and great support from governments, the wind
power industry has been going through a strong period of
development. However, the management level and information
construction are still relatively backward. Maintenance
strategies and spare parts demand prediction methods are still
relatively backward.
In this paper, a spare parts demand prediction method for
wind farm based on periodic maintenance strategy considering
combination of different maintenance models for wind farms is
proposed to enrich the choices of maintenance methods and
eliminate the subjective influence in the demand analysis of
spare parts, which consists of five major steps, acquire the
reliability functions of components, establish the maintenance
strategy, set the maintenance parameters, maintenance strategy
simulation and spare parts demand prediction. The dynamic
imperfect maintenance improvement factor model is used to
describe the imperfect maintenance. The discrete event
simulation method is used to solve the prediction model. A
specific wind turbine instance is proposed to illustrate the spare
parts demand prediction method, the results show the reliability
data changing over time. Form that we can estimate residual
life of components and predict the spare parts demand, with the
assumption that only the replacement maintenance actions
require for spare parts, imperfect maintenance and minimum
maintenance actions only need general maintenance tools.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This research was supported by Chinese National Science
and Technology Support Program (2015BAA06B02).
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