Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
SecM2004-0404
Chile
FSA Financial Sector Assessment
This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development /
The World Bank. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work.
The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the
views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent.
1. This Financial Sector Assessment (FSA) summarizes the FSAP report for Chile,
with emphasis on structural and developmental issues. The FSAP included two visits to
Santiago, Chile, in December 2003 and March 2004. 1 Its findings and recommendations
were thoroughly discussed with the authorities in a wrap-up session at the end of the second
mission and also during the IMF Article IV mission in May 2004. The diagnosis and
assessment of the FSAP, and hence of this FSA, are based on information as of end-March
2004. Following the FSAP, the Chilean authorities requested Technical Assistance from the
World Bank, which is expected to be funded in large part with resources from the FIRST
Initiative. A list of the acronyms used throughout this FSA is provided in Appendix I.
I. OVERALL ASSESSMENT
2. Chile’s financial system is large and well diversified. Following the reform of the
pension system in the early 1980s, mandatory pension funds (AFPs) have grown at a
particularly remarkable rate, pulling in their wake most of the financial system, including
banks (that have benefited from large deposits by AFPs), the life insurance sector (mainly
through annuities), the mortgage industry, and, more recently, commercial paper and
corporate bond s. Together, AFPs and insurance companies hold a substantial fraction of
total bank deposits, public securities, corporate and mortgage bonds, and, more recently,
Chile’s external assets. Other remarkable features include low dollarization, relatively lo ng
bond maturities, large corporate external liabilities, and large private assets abroad. The
equity market is also large by Latin American standards, yet illiquid, perhaps reflecting (at
least in part) a concentrated distribution of wealth and income.
3. The financial system was found to be sound, overall, and resilient to shocks. The
banking system weathered well the economic downturn that followed the external shocks of
the late 1990s. Notwithstanding a moderate increase in delinquent loans and a substantial
contraction of credit, particularly to the smaller enterprises, the system remained profitable
and well capitalized. Its exposure to macroeconomic shocks, within a range consistent with
recently observed volatilities, was found to be moderate. The main note of caution concerns
the insurance sector, which, due to heightened competition, some under-provisioning of
risks, and some weaknesses in the resolution framework, could face difficulties ahead, with
possibly adverse fiscal implications.
4. Chile’s exposure to sudden stops in capital flows is diminished under the current
policy environment and rising international financial integration. Notwithstanding a
substantial diversification during the last decade, export concentration remains high and
fluctua tions in copper prices may continue to have a significant impact on economic activity.
At the same time, despite Chile’s low and fairly stable sovereign spread, a repeat of the late
1
The Chile FSAP team gratefully acknowledges the excellent hospitality, cooperation, and openness of the
Chilean authorities and technical counterparts. The FSAP missions were co-led by Alain Ize (IMF) and
Augusto de la Torre (World Bank) and included Marie-Thérèse Camilleri, Eva Gutierrez, and Meral Karasulu
(all IMF); Ernesto Aguirre, Thomas Glaessner, Roberto Rocha, Sophie Sirtaine, Constantinos Stephanou, and
Craig Thorburn (all World Bank); Juan Ortiz (Bank of Spain), Brian Quinn (formerly Bank of England),
Irit Mendelson (Bank of Israel), Marc Bayle (European Central Bank), and Jonathan Katz (U.S. SEC).
-2-
1990s capital account shocks cannot be ruled out in view of Chile’s likely continued
dependence on foreign savings. Yet, the likelihood of a repeat of those events is much lower
in the current policy environment of full fledged inflation targeting. Chile’s exposure to
currency attacks is also likely to decline as it becomes better hedged and financially more
integrated with the rest of the world. However, to ensure the BCCh’s capacity to manage an
effective monetary policy under a broad range of macroeconomic conditions, its financial
accounts need strengthening.
5. The challenges faced by the financial system are mainly developmental. To help
generate the productivity growth needed to support a new phase of rapid output growth, the
financial system will need to further improve its efficiency in the sound allocation of
resources. This will require that: (i) distribution channels for the funding now concentrated
in AFPs be broadened and diversified; (ii) gaps in securities market infrastructure, that limit
market liquidity and development, be filled; and (iii) the oversight framework be adapted to
meet the needs of an increasingly integrated and complex financial system. These areas of
concern interact and reinforce each other. Illiquid and, in some cases, insufficiently
transparent markets hinder the efficient dispersion of funds while the excessive concentration
of funds in AFPs, combined with strict investment restrictions, exacerbates the lack of
market liquidity. The reform agenda should therefore address all three areas simultaneously.
9. The main FSAP recommendations are summarized in Appendix II. Some of the
recommendations are addressed, totally or partially, in the proposed Capital Markets Reform
II Law (CMII), under Congressional discussion at the time of this writing. Some reforms can
proceed in parallel, within a plan that sets out priorities, identifies complementarities,
allocates institutional responsibilities, provides for coordination mechanisms, and establishes
suitable timetables. The classification of a recommendation as “medium term” is often
because it would require legal changes. It does not necessarily imply less urgency.
10. The Chilean financial sector is large, we ll diversified, and increasingly integrated
with the rest of the world. It showed remarkable growth throughout the last two decades
and is now the largest (in assets to GDP) and among the deepest in the region. (Figure 1 and
Tables 1 and 2). The core of the system are the banking sector and the mandatory, privately-
administered, pension system. The latter is one of the largest in the world (only 8 OECD
countries have comparable pension assets). The markets for insurance products (mainly
annuities), equity securities, corporate bonds, and mortgage-related instruments are also large
by regional standards. The corporate bond and mortgage markets have grown rapidly during
recent years and so have the markets for commercial paper, albeit from a lower base. The
mutual fund industry and the nonbank finance sector, while also growing rapidly, remain
relatively small. The domestic public debt market is moderate in size and mostly
concentrated in instruments issued by the BCCh. Other remarkable features of Chile’s
financial system include relatively long (and lengthening) bond and mortgage maturities
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(mostly a result of the widespread use of instruments denominated in UFs), very large
external liabilities (mostly of the corporate sector, in the form of both foreign direct
investment and external loans and bonds), and large external assets. The latter grew rapidly
in recent years as AFPs were allowed to invest abroad a rising share of their portfolio.
11. The development of the financial system has been closely linked to the growth of
private pension funds. At end-2003, pension fund assets reached 60 percent of GDP, or
roughly one third of total assets of domestic financial institutions, and are projected to
increase to 80 percent of GDP in the next decade before tapering off as the system matures.
The large size of Chile’s pension sector is the result of an innovative reform initiated in 1981,
that involved the switch from a public pay-as-you-go system of predefined benefits to a
defined-contribution system of fully- funded individual accounts managed by the private
sector. The new system created a significant demand for investment assets and helped
develop capital markets. Together with the life insurance companies, whose growth is
mainly derived from that of the pension funds, AFPs hold a substantial fraction of total bank
deposits, public sector debt securities, corporate and mortgage bonds, and, more recently,
Chile’s external assets (Table 3). Projections suggest that institutional investors will become
larger than the banking sector in the next two decades, further increasing their systemic
importance. This increasing dominance partly reflects the fact that the bulk of household
savings is channeled into the compulsory (Pillar II) component of the pension system.
Household savings excluding mandatory pension contributions are small and corporate
savings account for a large part of private savings, which helps explain the very limited retail
investors base (Figure 2).
12. The financial (and real) sectors are characterized by high concentration and
conglomeration. With the exception of insurance, a small number of institutions dominate
the financial sector. The three largest banks account for 55 percent of bank assets, while the
three largest AFPs manage 70 percent of pension fund assets. Moreover, a majority of
financial institutions is controlled by a handful of financial conglomerates with significant
linkages between the banking, securities, mutual and pension fund management, and
insurance businesses (Table 4). The high concentration in the financial sector echoes an
equally high concentration of ownership in the real sector, where the large nonfinancial
conglomerates account for a disproportionately large fraction of economic activity and
absorb most of the available financing. 2 In turn, this high concentration, which has adverse
implications for liquidity in securities markets, in part reflects a high concentration of income
and wealth (Figure 3).
B. Macroeconomic Environment
2
One percent of firms account for 78 percent of sales by enterprises and absorb 79 percent of domestic bank
financing and virtually all financing through the capital market (Table 5).
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rate was twice that of the large Latin American economies, and compared favorably, at least
until 1998, to that of the strongest Asian performers (Figure 4). This strong performance was
supported by a steady monetary stabilization to low single digit inflation rates, a long record
of prudent fiscal management (consolidated into a structural fiscal balance target rule in
2000), and a comprehensive and far reaching program of structural reforms. In the financial
area, in addition to the already cited pension reform, other initiatives included: (i) the
consistent promotion of price- indexed financial instruments (which, together with the build
up of monetary policy credibility, resulted in a low level of dollarization3 ); (ii) the
introduction of comprehensive capital market reforms (the 2001 Capital Markets I law,
followed by the draft CMII law); and (iii) recent reforms to monetary and public debt
management practices. Chile’s economic performance and financial development was
supported by well- functioning institutions, including in the legal and political realms, placing
Chile well above the regional average in terms of reliability and security in the rule of law
and property rights. 4
14. Despite its sound macroeconomic frame work, Chile was not immune to the
regional financial turmoil during the late 1990s. Chile’s rapid output growth of the 1990s
was accompanied by substantial current account deficits, as domestic saving rates remained
moderate (Figure 5). The dependence on foreign savings increased Chile’s vulnerability to
the international and regional turbulences of the late 1990s. While Chile weathered the storm
much better than most of the neighboring countries, output and credit growth decelerated
sharply as the current account deficit swung from a large deficit into a small surplus (Figure
6 and Table 1). The contraction of credit was particularly strong for the smaller enterprises
(Figure 7). Output growth has started to recover only recently, stimulated by a favorable
external environment, a notable strengthening of copper prices, and a supportive monetary
policy (growth is expected to reach around 5 percent in 2004). The recovery in confidence
has led to a strong recovery of private consumption and buoyant growth of credit to
households while corporate borrowing and gross capital formation remain weak.
3
At end-2003 foreign currency deposits and loans accounted for 10 and 14 percent of total banking sector
assets, respectively.
4
Chile was ranked in the 9th decile, together with Hong Kong and the U.S., in the 2000/2001 index of the “rule
of law” (Kaufmann et al., 2002).
5
The CSF (established in 1985) receives transfers from the state-owned copper company (CODELCO) when
copper prices are high. Funds can be withdrawn by the government when prices decline.
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volatility and potential banking system vulnerabilities. Stress tests conducted by the FSAP
team indicate that while a 10 percent adverse terms of trade shock would have only a
marginal impact on banks’ solvency, it could nonetheless result in some liquidity tensions if
it leads AFPs to abruptly reallocate their deposits across banks.
16. Chile’s exposure to sudden stops in capital flows cannot be totally dismissed but
it is much diminished in the current monetary policy environment. Notwithstanding its
record of low and fairly stable sovereign spread (Figure 9), a repeat of the late 1990s sudden
stop in capital flows cannot be totally ruled out because Chile is likely to continue depending
on foreign savings. The severity of the 1998-1999 sudden stop and associated economic
deceleration mainly reflected a domestic portfolio reshuffling (away from dollar liabilities
and towards dollar assets) resulting from the liberalization of the capital account and the
elimination of the foreign exchange band, rather than a loss of access to international capital
markets (Figure 10). 6 The new policy environment of full- fledged inflation targeting,
together with the strong fiscal rule, is more resilient to that type of shocks. It should limit the
risk of sharp policy discontinuities while enhancing the scope for countercyclical policies. 7
17. The high and increasing financial integration with the rest of the world should
further increase the resilience of the system to sudden stops. Chile’s financial integration
with the rest of the world is high compared to most emerging economies (Figure 13). It
expanded rapidly in recent years, reflecting in part the strong increase in AFPs’ foreign
assets. The 1998 liberalization of the capital account has also promoted financial integration,
illustrated by the recent increase in the comovements of returns between the local and
international equity markets (Figure 14). The rapid expansion of the market for foreign
exchange rate hedges (see below), facilitated by the expanding supply of hedges by AFPs,
should also contribute to the overall stability and resilience of the currency market.
18. Notwithstanding the high foreign corporate debt, the exposure of corporations
and banks to currency risk was found to be moderate. Banks’ direct exposure to currency
risk—and more generally to market risk—was found to be insignificant. Their indirect
exposure to currency risk (i.e., through credit risk) was found to be moderate. 8 The increased
hedging of large corporates against currency risk (it is estimated that over 40 percent of the
corporate dollar debt currently hedged) has contributed to limit their exposure. More
6
There was a shift in relative costs in favor of the peso, following the liberalization of the capital account that
removed the interest rate wedge associated with reserve requirements (Figure 11). This was compounded by
shifts in uncertainty as investors, concerned about the sustainability of the exchange rate band and, later, by its
elimination, flew to dollar assets and debtors moved away from dollar obligations due to the increased volatility
of dollar rates (the variance of the exchange rate increased three-fold after it was allowed to float freely). The
increase in exchange rate uncertainty during 1997-1999 is apparent in the increased bid-ask spreads and the
surge in demand for currency hedges by dollar-indebted bank customers (Figure 12).
7
The assessment of the Code of Good Practices of Transparency in Monetary Policy conducted under the
FSAP revealed a very high degree of observance.
8
Nearly 60 percent of corporate debt is denominated in US dollars. Out of the 50 firms (accounting for
90 percent of total US dollar debt and 64 percent of corporate debt to domestic banks), 7 would incur debt
servicing difficulties under a one-year real exchange rate depreciation of 25 percent (Figure 16). As a result,
one bank (with less than 1 percent of banking assets) would experience a decline in its CAR below 8 percent.
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generally, the floating exchange rate has encouraged better risk management and led to a
pronounced increase in foreign exchange forwards (Figure 15).
19. The BCCh’s financial accounts need strengthening. With the current low inflation
target, the inflation tax on the money base does not cover the BCCh’s moderate operating
expenditures and carrying cost of its debt- funded foreign and domestic assets (Tables 6a and
6b). The BCCh’s weak financial accounts could constrain its policies (e.g., increasing
international reserves, and reducing or remunerating required bank reserves). While the
BCCh’s profitability could be improved by downsizing its balance sheet (in particular, the
carrying cost of claims on the government will disappear once this debt is repaid), the scope
for doing so is limited in view of the need to maintain minimum levels of international
reserves and domestic public debt. 9 Addressing this issue will require recapitalizing the
BCCh and preferably transferring at least some of its debt to the government.
IV. BANKING
20. The banking sector has incurred a rapid pace of consolidation. The relatively
small number of banks (26 at end 2003, down from 40 in 1992) reflects the 1982-83 banking
crisis and a wave of recent mergers. However, following a lowering of minimum capital
requirements in 2001, there was a number of niche entrants. Nineteen banks are privately
held and one (the third largest) is state-owned. Six banks (40 percent of system assets) are
majority owned or controlled by foreign banks. Banking concentration, as measured by the
market share of the three or five largest banks, is somewhat high by international comparison
(Figure 17).
21. Chilean banks are sound, profitable, and their efficiency has been improving.
Chilean banks have historically enjoyed high profitability, driven mainly by comfortable
interest margins (Table 7). They maintained NPL ratios in the 1–2 percent range throughout
the 1990s. 10 While asset quality deteriorated modestly as a consequence of the 1998-2001
economic slowdown, profitability and capital remained high. Stress tests indicate that the
banking system would only be moderately affected by further shocks affecting market risk or
credit risk. The operating efficiency of Chilean banks is good by regional standards. 11
Banks’ fee income appears low (albeit rising) as a ratio to net interest income when Chile is
compared with other countries (Figure 18). 12
9
A deep and liquid market for domestic public debt is needed to sustain a reliable yield curve (required to
adequately price private sector debt) and provide collateral for the payments system.
10
However, Chilean accounting of past-due loans is less stringent than international standards. If measured
under U.S. GAAP, the ratio would double.
11
The ratio of operating costs to total assets in the Chilean banking system was 2.8 percent in 2003 (SBIF data),
compared to ratios of over 6 percent in Mexico and Brazil (Bankscope data).
12
Then authorization in 2002 to pay interest on sight deposits is inducing banks to increase fee income.
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Competition is intense at the higher end where the very large corporations generally have
access to foreign credit and the local capital markets. It has also become quite intense in
consumer credit, partly reflecting the competition from department stores (recently
intensified through their direct entry into the banking business). Yet, competition remains
more limited in the middle segment where the smaller enterprises ha ve difficulties in
accessing alternative funding sources and benefiting from direct funding by institutional
investors (see below). The dominating presence in the wholesale deposit market of large,
risk averse, institutional investors may impress a somewhat conservative bias on banks and
stifle competition from non-bank intermediaries, as only the reputable and well rated
intermediaries (mainly the banking groups) can benefit from AFP funding. Banks face
almost no competition in the credit markets from no n-deposit taking finance institutions and,
at least until recently, very limited competition from mutual funds. 13 The scope for
competition is limited in some other areas, notably retail payment, partly reflecting the need
(driven by scale economies) for large minimum volumes needed to compete.
23. Strong financial oversight underpins a robust banking system. Bank regulation is
shared between the BCCh and the SBIF, but supervision is entrusted solely to the latter. The
supervisory regime is robust and well established. It enjoys a well deserved reputation for
good technical skills and integrity. Efforts are under way to move away from a strict
compliance-driven supervisory style towards one which allows banks more room to manage
their risks, while placing increasing responsibility on bank directors and management.
24. However, bank oversight needs further strengthening in some areas. The
transition to risk-based supervision increases the need to fortify the supervisory approach
with strong analytical and informa tion processing capabilities. Provided it is matched with
adequate accountability, this calls for strengthening and clarifying the independence of the
SBIF (see below). It also requires adapting the regulatory framework to address some
weaknesses identified in the BCP assessment. In particular, risk-specific regulations need to
be replaced by a broader capital charge for market risk and consolidated supervision
expanded beyond the bank and its subsidiaries. The scope of fit and proper tests should be
extended to banks’ directors and senior management. There is also room to further
strengthen banks’ credit risk management practices and disclosure of risk exposures
(Appendix III).
25. While the Chilean safety net and bank resolution scheme is original and
attractive, it is untested and has some limitations. The scheme, which is based on a
“narrow banking” concept (Appendix IV), remains untested, partly reflecting good
supervision supported by an effective system of early warning and prompt remedial action.
Should the need to activate the system arise, the dominance of large institutional depositors
should help expedite the resolution process with only limited losses for involved parties.
However, obtaining agreement from a majority of non-sight creditors (sight deposits are fully
guaranteed by the BCCh) could be difficult if the largest creditors have already left the bank
in anticipation of difficulties. When the bank is too big to fail or the system is perceived to
13
The fastest growing segments of the nonbank credit sector (leasing and factoring) are owned by (and
increasingly integrated into) banking groups. Similarly, the largest mutual funds are owned by banking groups.
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be vulnerable to contagion, this could ha ve adverse systemic implications. Under the current
regime, a rapid transfer of assets and non-sight liabilities of the distressed bank to a sound
financial institution is not permitted since it would entail a de facto differential treatment of
creditors. Nor is it possible for the State to transitorily assume the bank’s ownership or for
the SBIF to grant a temporary license to a bridge bank. Such options and tools could be
usefully integrated to the legal framework.
V. CORPORATE S ECTOR
26. Chilean firms are conservatively managed but currently have low profitability.
The average leverage ratio at end-2003 was low and the debt servicing capacity high
(Figure 19 and Table 8). 14 However, ROE was significantly below the estimated cost of
capital, reflecting incomp lete cost restructuring in the face of the post-1998 decline in sales.
Firms’ depressed profitability has discouraged them from issuing equity in recent years.
27. Only the largest (“mega”) firms have access to international capital markets and
to the whole range of financing instruments available in the domestic financial market.
Smaller firms do not have access to finance in international markets and face some form of
financing constraint at home. 15 Even large firms have virtually no access to the local bond
market, in part because of the relatively large minimum bond issue size (US$45 million)
required to attract AFP investment and cover the large issue fees (Table 9 and Figure 21).
Bond issue fees are large mainly because of the stamp tax, which accounts for 50 percent of
the fees (Figure 20). 16 In contrast, some SMEs managed to issue equity in the mid-1980s and
early-1990s, reflecting relatively low access costs. Only a minor fraction of SMEs have
access to private equity in the OTC market (as opposed to public offerings in the stock
exchange)—an industry that is noticeably under-developed in Chile. To be sure, in the most
recent period, banks rapidly expanded their lending to SMEs as well as their leasing and
factoring lines—although the latter are still small. Micro firms have access to loans from
dedicated institutions, which often take the form of consumer loans. While better off than in
most countries in the region, SMEs in Chile still have significantly less access (in quantity
and diversity) to financial services than do similar firms in developed countries.
28. There is room to further improve SME’s access to finance. Although Chile’s
lending environment is already relatively strong, 17 SME’s access to bank finance cold be
14
Much of the corporate sector analysis was based on the so-called FECUs data, which contains summary
financial statements for around 500 formal firms. The data is tilted towards larger firms, although it also
includes SMEs and a few micro firms.
15
Mega firms are defined as those with annual sales (net of value-added tax) above UF600,000
(US$17,172,000); large firms have sales between UF100,000 (US$2,862,000) and UF600,000; medium firms
have sales between UF25,000 (US$715,500) and UF100,000; small firms have sales between UF2,400
(US$68,688) and UF25,000; and micro firms have sales below UF2,400.
16
As the stamp tax also applies to domestic bank loans, it does not raise the cost of bond issues relative to bank
borrowing. However, it raises the cost of domestic bond issues relative to external bond issues, favoring the
largest firms that have access to external borrowing over the smaller firms that must borrow domestically.
17
Chile ranks high (72th percentile) on “effective creditor rights,” close to Sweden (75th percentile) and far
above Brazil (25th percentile) according to Chong, Galindo, and Micco (IDB, 2004).
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aided by unifying the legislation on movable collateral and creating a single registry for
pledges. While credit bureaus work well in Chile, the quality of SME financial statements
needs to be improved. The ceiling on lending rates (tasa máxima convencional) should be
made more flexible or eliminated. 18 A revenue neutral tax reform that eliminates the stamp
tax (or exonerates smaller customers) should also be considered, as this tax penalizes all
forms of borrowing, especially by the smaller firms. Firms' access to equity will also be
enhanced through the vigorous implementation of recent improvements in the framework for
corporate governance. 19 Further steps include upgrading the accounting and auditing system
(see below), clarifying definitions and improving corporate disclosure of related party
transactions, establishing clearer standards for appointing directors. Training of independent
directors and the judiciary should be considered to ensure consistent application and
enforcement of the corporate governance framework.
29. The insurance sector is large, reflecting its important role in providing annuities.
It comprises 57 companies (domestic and international) and has grown steadily over the last
decade (total assets reached 19 percent of GDP in 2002, up from 7.5 percent in 1992). The
industry is dominated by life insurance, which grew in connection with the pension system (it
accounts for 62 percent of total premiums, compared to a regional average of 38 percent).
Annuities are the dominant choice of retirees due to high money worth ratios of annuity
products, which in turn is partly attributable to the availability of inflation- indexed bonds. 20
18
Although relatively high, the ceiling is becoming binding as credit institutions move down market towards
riskier borrowers. A bill that makes the ceiling more product-specific has recently been submitted to Congress.
To protect small customers from potentially abusive practices the authorities should consider consumer
protection arrangements rather than usury laws. The U.S. experience with provisions to prevent “predatory
lending” can serve as a point of reference in this regard.
19
A 2003 assessment by the World Bank found Chile to score well on the OECD Principles for Corporate
Governance. The CMII reform is expected to further strengthen corporate governance.
20
The money worth ratio is the present value of the stream of annuity payments divided by the purchase price
of the annuity. Such ratio in Chile hovers around 100 percent, compared to around 90 percent in the U.K.
21
A major part of the insurance sector could fall below the minimum capital requirement once the necessary
provisioning is made, even if allowance is made for an increase in the discount rate (Figure 22).
22
The current rule -based style of supervision has led insurance companies to devote considerable energy to
“managing rules,” rather than “managing risks.” Exposure to prepayment and credit risks might have been
more limited in a risk-focused environment.
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obligations and dealing with asset deficiencies are missing. Reforms are also needed to
mitigate incentives in the current framework for companies to raid available funds ahead of
the intervention and, once in the intervention phase, for the administrator acting in the
interests of claimants to maximize the resolution cost to the government. In view of low
average ROE (partly resulting from aggressive pricing), the large number of players (that will
require consolidation), and lack of key resolution tools, the road ahead could be difficult.
32. AFPs are by far the dominant institutional investors in the country. They hold
40 percent of government bonds, 50 percent of mortgage bonds, 38 percent of corporate
bonds, and 35 percent of time deposits. 23 Their number dropped to 6 at end-2003 (from 21 in
1994) following a marketing war in the 1990s. AFPs have enjoyed persistently high profits
(annual ROEs averaged 30 percent in recent years, twice that of banks), despite low levels of
risk. While costs have declined and are becoming more comparable to those in OECD
pension funds, there is scope for further reductions. A voluntary pension system (opened to
all financial institutions) was introduced in 2002, but it is still small.
33. Pension funds’ port folio composition partly reflects an overly complex and
restrictive investment regime. Despite the significant increase in their share of foreign
assets (to almost 30 percent) and the introduction of multiple funds among which workers
can choose (to increase risk diversification), pension funds continue to have a relatively high
level of low- yield, short-term assets, mainly bank certificates of deposits (Table 10). The
share of domestic equity is small, the range of equity holdings is narrow (90 corporations, out
of more than 200 listed companies), and corporate bond holdings are heavily concentrated in
companies rated A and above (Figure 23). This is mainly the result of the fast growth of
pension funds outstripping the availability of investable assets in a relatively small economy,
and more recently the fall in investment following the 1998 economic slowdown.
23
The fast asset growth in pension funds has reflected the mandatory nature of the system and reinvestment of
high historical rates of return (7 percent per annum since 1981).
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34. The scope for liberalizing AFP regulations is constrained by their inherent
fiduciary role. Policies may be considered to enhance AFPs’ impact on financial
development only to the extent that their primordial fiduciary responsibility is safeguarded.
A conservative portfolio allocation is particularly justified in Chile given that the second
(mandatory, privately-administered, fully- funded) pillar of the system constitutes the core of
the national social security scheme. As a result, workers are more exposed to market risk
than if the second pillar was a complement to a core pay-as-you- go system. A major
liberalization of the investment regime would therefore not be advisable. 24
37. The authorities should also deepen their efforts to gradually enhance
competition in the pension sector. Greater competition in asset management should not
only contribute to a further lowering of fees but also to a broader diversification of investable
funds. The recent creation of the voluntary pension system should enhance competition, but
24
Also, a move towards a “prudent man” rule is not recommended at this stage because, among other reasons,
courts may not be legally and technically equipped to enforce jurisprudence of prudent man behavior, the
regulatory framework is not suited to ensure effective risk management (while risk management capacities seem
very uneven across AFPs), and the SAFP is not sufficiently trained to perform risk-based supervision.
25
This includes training of staff on risk management techniques and the introduction of a compliance officer
inside each AFP reporting directly to the AFP Board.
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further outsourcing of administrative services could be encouraged and the SAFP should be
given authority to regulate service providers directly. The authorities are also encouraged to
implement their plans for “decompressing” the mandatory pension system (members that
achieve a threshold balance in their mandatory pension can be diverted to the voluntary
pension system) and enhancing the attractiveness of the voluntary system (including by
allowing the formation of employer-based groups and introducing a different tax treatment
for low-income workers). Allocating undecided new entrants to the lowest-cost AFP could
also promote healthy, fee-based competition, rather than expensive marketing practices.
38. Should this gradual approach fall short of expectations, a more radical reform
could be introduced at a later stage. This would unbundle pension-related services that are
subject to economies of scale (contributions collection, accounts management, payouts to
retirees, etc.) from those services where price competition can thrive (asset management).
This could be achieved by centralizing the provision of basic services (contributions
collection, accounts management, payouts to retirees, etc.) within a regulated provider while
allowing open competition among asset managers. The danger of a marketing war could be
dispelled by simultaneously considering, among other alternatives, the introduction of a blind
quotation system (workers know which asset manager they choose but asset managers do not
know the identity of the workers whose pens ion assets they manage). The excessive number
of entries could be avoided through proper licensing criteria, including fit and proper tests. 26
39. Policies should also be considered to reduce the market risks faced by workers at
the moment of retirement. The current system, which separates the administration of the
retirement savings between AFPs (pension fund administration) and life insurance companies
(provision of annuities), each operating under different market incentives, is not necessarily
consistent with smoothing and maximizing lifetime consumption for a given level of risk. In
particular, with AFPs focused mainly on maximizing short-term return, the system does not
adequately protect retiring workers from interest rate and other market risks when switching
from the pension fund to annuities. To address this problem, a long-duration fund for
workers approaching retirement could be introduced and workers could be allowed to
purchase fixed annuities gradually in the years before retirement. Complementary, more
adequate information on replacement ratios (the ratio of retirement pension to pre-retirement
income) needs to be provided. 27
40. Mutual funds need to be closely monitored to ensure fair competition and limit
systemic risk. The industry was affected by the Inverlink scandal (Appendix V) and the
resulting run-off on money market funds, particularly on those not affiliated with banks. In
the case of the longer duration funds, “exit load fees” (commissions that decline over time),
26
The authorities may wish to consider the experience of Sweden and its recent adaptation to Latvia.
27
This is all the more important considering the downward pressure on replacement ratios stemming from the
declining trend in net pension fund returns (relative to real wage growth), which also raises the relevance of
further reducing fees through competition in the pension industry. In effect, a decrease in fees by 30-40 basis
points of assets accumulated over long periods would lead to a 7-9 percent increase in replacement ratios.
- 14 -
and the upper regulatory limit on asset duration have so far limited interest rate and liquidity
risks. However, as regulations on duration are relaxed and competitive pressures increase,
some funds, particularly the ones affiliated with banking groups (that benefit from potential
liquidity backing), may attract customers by combining higher yield-higher duration assets
with higher liquidity. This could put the independent mutual funds at a disadvantage and
induce them to take excessive risk, or else further promote concentration. The authorities
will thus need to remain vigilant and ensure, via regulation if needed, that risks are well
managed and disclosed and not passed on to banks.
42. The authorities should continue with their efforts at identifying and removing
obstacles to healthy competition and diversification in the financial services industry.
Mutual and investment funds can help channel funds to smaller firms to the extent that they
can credibly reduce the risk of investing in smaller firms though monitoring and
diversification (pooling, mixed funds) at reasonable cost. In this connection, actual cost and
fees deserve analysis. For instance, the fact that pension fund investments in mutual funds
are minuscule reflects in part the high fees (about 200 basis points) charged by the medium-
term mutual funds. In the area of venture capital, the reforms proposed in CMII should help
28
Mutual funds in Chile are open-ended. Money market funds (whose assets must have an average duration of
less than 90 days) and medium-term mutual funds (with durations of no more than 2 years) dominate the mutual
fund sector. The so-called investment funds are close-ended and their asset holdings are significantly smaller
that those of mutual funds. Compared to mutual funds, investment funds invest more in equity and, at the
margin, invest in riskier companies than pension funds do.
- 15 -
develop the industry. The evolution of securitization and of the market for corporate control
(e.g., via the development of investment banking services, venture capital funds, vulture
funds, etc.) should further help bridge the access gaps.
43. The Chilean securities markets are large, as noted above, but their liquidity
remains limited and needs to be enhanced. Secondary market liquidity lags that in
comparable emerging market countries, particularly in corporate paper, mortgages, and
equity markets. The illiquidity of the equity market reflects both concentration of supply (the
concentrated firm ownership results in very low “float ratios,” as shown in Figure 24) and
concentration of demand at six AFPs which mostly “buy and hold.” The significant
migration of securities issues and trading abroad has also reduced liquidity in the domestic
capital market. 29 Enhancing liquidity, which is essential to securities markets development,
should therefore be a key focus of policy. 30 To be sure, the scope for enhancing liquidity is
fundament ally limited by the mentioned concentration factors and the relatively small size of
the Chilean economy, as liquidity is strongly dependent of economies of scale and
agglomeration. Nonetheless, there is room to improve liquidity by removing impediments
that currently exist in various dimensions of market infrastructure, including legal aspects,
clearance and settlement systems, valuation, contract standardization, market making
arrangements, taxation, and financial reporting, as discussed below. Due to incentive
problems among the various capital market participants to act collectively, this will require
strong leadership and a major coordination effort.
44. Legal voids that affect the clearing and settlement of securities need to be filled. 31
The legal foundations for securities clearing and settlement need to be strengthened by
embedding more clearly in the law the concepts of finality (irrevocable and unconditional
completion of transactions), netting (offsetting of credits and debits between parties to a
series of transactions involving the same security), and novation (the substitution of an old
obligation or obligor with a new obligation or obligor). Further clarifying the concept of
finality in payments would also provide a more solid anchor for the forthcoming introduction
by the BCCh of a real-time gross-settlement payments system and the nearly complete move
towards dematerialization of securities. Clarifications to the concept of netting (further to
those envisioned under CMII) should be introduced as part of a broader reform of the
bankruptcy code. Firmly embedding novation and netting in the law would facilitate the
29
Econometric evidence on this effect is presented in a recent World Bank study on “Whither Capital Markets
in Latin America?”, which can be found at:
http://wbln1018.worldbank.org/LAC/LAC.nsf/ECADocbyUnid/01A51A58B764B8D585256EA9005BFE00?O
pendocument
30
Illiquidity hampers price revelation—the most distinctive function of securities markets vis -à-vis, say,
banking markets. It weakens the reliability of marking to market and fair value accounting and limits the
development of derivatives markets. Moreover, it magnifies the effects of shocks on asset price fluctuations.
31
Informal assessments of observance of the CPSS Core Principles for Systemically Important Payment
Systems and the CPSS-IOSCO Recommendations for Securities Clearance and Settlement were conducted as
part of the FSAP.
- 16 -
45. Reforms are needed to modernize securities clearance and settlement, improve
securities valuation, enhance standardization, and suitably formalize a market making
system. Such efforts should affect securities traded in both the exchange and over the
counter (OTC). 32 In particular, securities valuation, already undermined by secondary market
illiquidity, is further hampered by inadequate price information on OTC trades and lack of
uniformity in valuation methodologies. The authorities should consider introducing a
standard contract for repos (and, possibly, an omnibus master agreement for both repo and
derivatives contracts). More generally, a comprehensive review of shortfalls in contract
standardization, including in the highly fragmented mortgage market, would be desirable. At
the same time, a market for securities lending and borrowing needs to be promoted and a
suitable formalization of a market making system considered. 33
46. There is also a need for a thorough review of financial sector taxation. As noted,
important distortions arise from the stamp tax, which raises the cost of bond issuance and,
according to anecdotal evidence, promotes ever-greening in bank lending. There is also
excessive complexity in the design and application of capital gains tax and its exemptions,
making it difficult to assess its incentive effects. Moreover, the competitive disadvantages
created by the uneven application of the value-added tax (e.g., transactions by AFPs are
exempt but transactions by insurance companies, mutual fund administrators, and banks are
not) are likely to intensify as different financial entities are allowed to provide the same
financial service (e.g., the administration of voluntary pension funds). 34
47. The financial reporting regime for companies listed on the stock exchange
should be strengthened. 35 Chilean accounting principles differ significantly from
International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). They fail to require disclosure on
certain critical areas. For instance, companies do not have to provide summary informatio n
on their financial position and performance by business segments or geographical areas.
Furthermore, Chilean GAAP are not as rigorous as international standards with respect to
disclosure of the fair value of financial instruments, especially derivatives. Chile should
adopt IFRS but only after a period of transition that would allow companies to adequately
prepare to meet the new requirements and users to properly assess the implications. As
regards external auditing, the current lack of licensing and quality control mechanisms in the
audit profession weakens its role, potentially compromising the overall strength of the
32
OTC trading dwarfs the exchange-based trading (Figure 25).
33
Granting exclusivity for participation in primary auctions to primary dealers is not recommended, partly
because of the already high concentration in the Chilean system. Instead, primary auctions would be open to all
participants while market makers can be given the right of first refusal to an allocation of securities in an
oversubscribed auction, at an appropriate price. In turn, they would have measurable obligations, especially
with respect to continuously quoting bid-ask spreads for minimum transaction sizes and distributing securities.
34
CMII, if enacted, should resolve this issue by subjecting all voluntary pension funds to the VAT,
independently of which institution administers them.
35
A Review of Accounting and Auditing Practices was conducted by the World Bank in parallel to the FSAP.
- 17 -
reporting system. The current efforts of the audit profession toward creating a licensing
system are welcome. Additionally, Chile should establish independent oversight
mechanisms to ensure the proper functioning of these systems and give the SVS greater
authority to play a more proactive role in monitoring and enforcing compliance.
XI. H EDGES
49. Notwithstanding ample hedging needs, the use of derivatives remains so far
limited. Following the removal of the exchange rate band, the domestic market for
nondeliverable foreign-exchange forwards (NDFs) expanded rapidly and has now become
quite deep and liquid (Figures 25, 26, and 27). However, the use of other derivatives remains
extremely limited or nonexistent. In particular, there is no active market for interest rate
derivatives. Yet, some sectors, particularly life insurance, are significantly exposed to
interest rate risk, reflecting a substantial duration gap and a growing exposure to repayment
risk. The absence of equity derivatives and options of any kind also hinders the capacity of
financial intermediaries and corporates to manage and allocate risk effectively. Such gaps
will become increasingly binding as the financial system evolves from “managing rules” to
“managing risks.” Moreover, new derivatives would help increase trading in assets that are
now locked- in in institutional investors’ portfolios, thereby contributing to market liquidity.
36
A formal assessment of observance of the IOSCO Objectives and Principles of Securities Regulation was
conducted under the FSAP.
37
The SVS has power to intervene and liquidate a mutual fund and to suspend the operations and cancel the
license of a brokerage firm, but not to intervene and liquidate the latter.
- 18 -
supervisors are satisfied that banks have adequate capacity to manage the associated risks
(this may also require capacity building at the SBIF). The removal of restrictions on
derivatives trading for pension funds and insurance companies would be a logical second
step, based on similar requirements. The limited development of derivatives also reflects
already noted deficiencies in information and market infrastructure. There is a particular
need to: (i) follow intraday market indicators to measure liquidity and ascertain disorderly
market conditions; (ii) increase the data available to the public to promote competition and
avoid manipulation; (iii) enable netting and securities lending; v) define a proper tax,
accounting, and valuation treatment of derivatives; and (vi) promote knowledge building,
standardization of contracts, and an industry code of conduct.
52. The silo approach will become increasingly limiting as financial services become
more integrated and complex. The problems that could have arisen from the co-existence
of institution-oriented supervision and the dominance of financial conglomerates have
hitherto been kept at bay by the regulatory firewalls, comfortable profitability, and strong
presence of foreign banks supervised by their home-country regulators. However, rapid
changes in financial services are increasingly exposing the limitations of this approach. As
evidenced by the thriving yet opaque OTC market, there are gaps in market transparency and
surveillance in markets that involve different types of financial entities that are subject to
different regulations. These markets, as a result, fall outside the purview of any of the
individual regulatory agencies. In addition, the uneven regulatory treatment of similar
products promotes regulatory arbitrage. 39 Moreover, statutory obstacles to the full
consolidated supervision of financial conglomerates 40 could impede early recognition of
38
While CMII would give stronger legal grounding to information sharing, cooperation would remain rather
informal and limited in scope.
39
For example, insurance companies can originate consumer loans and mo rtgages and launch mutual fund and
credit card subsidiaries, but are subject to different regulations than banks. Voluntary pension funds will be
subject to the same (SAFP) regulations as mandatory pension funds when administered by AFPs but by
different (SVS) regulations when administered by other financial entities.
40
At present, the SBIF is empowered to supervise on a consolidated basis a subset of a financial conglomerate,
namely, the bank and its subsidiaries and affiliates (where the bank has an ownership interest).
- 19 -
group-wide risks, especially in cases where the conglomerate includes nonfinancial firms.
The importance of these linkages will rise as financial groups are increasingly driven by
competition to exploit synergies and scale economies (Figure 28).
55. For the medium-term, legal reforms will be needed to support fully consolidated
supervision. The authorities should consider legislative reform to define and embed the
concepts of financial conglomerate, financial holding company, and lead regulator in the law
and, hence, appropriately underpin the full application of consolidated supervision. This
should be established simultaneously with some relaxation of existing regulatory firewalls,
while promoting further enhancements in financial conglomerates’ corporate governance
(which should result in appropriate Chinese walls) and ring fencing the financial
conglomerate from the rest of the group. In addition, the authorities are encouraged to
improve coordination protocols to deal with the possible failure of a complex financial
conglomerate.
56. The shift from “managing rules” to “managing risks” puts a premium on
further enhancing the autonomy and legal protection of supervisors. The authorities
should consider reforms to enshrine in the law the political and budgetary autonomy of the
regulatory agencies, and enhance the legal protection of supervisors. To minimize the scope
for abuses of power and inefficiencies, increased autonomy must be matched with increased
transparency and accountability.
41
While information systems are often adequate in meeting the needs of silo-based supervision, they generally
fall short in supporting more analytic, broader, cross-sectoral, systemic analysis.
- 20 -
57. Further to the 2003 GAFISUD assessment, there remains scope for tightening
the AML/CFT framework. The recent passage of a law endorsing the authority of a
Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) and extending the definition of offences and the institutions
subject to reporting constituted an essential first step towards compliance with AML/CFT
standards. However, subsequent rulings of the Constitutional Court eliminated the FIU’s
sanctioning powers, limited its discretion in requesting data on suspicious transaction
records, and denied its access to information protected by bank secrecy or on other public
databases. This undermines investigations on (and the disclosure of) potential offences,
precluding effective international cooperation through the FIU, including in freezing assets
The monitoring of compliance by securities firms, insurance companies, and foreign
exchange retail operators also needs improvement.
- 21 -
Real Sector
GDP (real change) 1/ 6.6 3.2 -0.8 4.2 3.1 2.2 3.2
Consumer price index (e.o.p.) 95.5 100.0 102.3 106.9 109.8 112.9 114.07
Consumer price index (e.o.p.) change 4.7 2.3 4.5 2.6 2.8 3.3.
Private savings ratio (in percent) 2/ 23.1 21.8 21.0 20.6 20.0 21.0 n.a.
- 22 -
General government financial balance 1.8 0.4 -1.4 0.1 -0.3 -0.8 n.a.
Banking System 32 54.9 86.1 32 89.4 30 96.7 29 97.7 28 51.8 99.6 26 98.4 26 95.6
Banks 29 53.4 83.7 29 87.0 29 95.6 28 96.8 27 51.5 99.0 25 98.0 26 95.6
Private 28 45.4 71.1 28 74.3 28 81.9 27 83.7 26 44.7 85.9 24 83.5 25 80.8
Domestic 11 33.9 53.1 11 50.6 9 36.9 9 38.5 9 20.6 39.5 10 39.6 12 41.8
Foreign 17 11.5 18.0 17 23.7 19 45.0 18 45.1 17 24.1 46.4 14 43.9 13 39.0
State-owned 1 8.1 12.6 1 12.8 1 13.7 1 13.2 1 6.8 13.2 1 14.4 1 14.8
Finance Companies 3 1.5 2.3 3 2.4 1 1.1 1 0.9 1 0.3 0.6 1 0.4 0 0.0
Institutional investors 212 38.1 59.7 218 59.2 227 72.6 261 76.6 281 42.5 81.7 303 87.4 312 93.1
Insurance companies 59 7.4 11.6 58 12.6 55 14.8 56 16.5 54 9.3 17.9 55 19.1 55 20.2
Life and Retirement 34 7.1 11.1 33 12.2 32 14.4 33 16.0 32 9.1 17.5 32 18.7 32 19.8
Nonlife 25 0.3 0.5 25 0.5 23 0.5 23 0.4 22 0.2 0.4 23 0.5 23 0.5
Pension funds 13 24.9 39.0 9 40.3 8 49.2 8 51.0 7 27.9 53.6 7 55.8 7 59.7
Foreign-owned 4 9.3 14.6 4 22.8 3 27.6 3 28.4 3 15.6 29.9 3 30.8 4 34.8
Domestically owned 9 15.6 24.5 5 17.5 5 21.6 5 22.6 4 12.3 23.7 4 24.9 3 24.9
Mutual funds 92 3.6 5.7 102 3.5 115 5.2 150 6.4 177 3.8 7.3 199 9.9 206 10.1
Money market 39 2.6 4.0 41 2.6 42 3.5 45 3.9 50 2.0 3.9 60 5.7 58 5.4
- 23 -
Others 53 1.0 1.6 61 0.9 73 1.7 105 2.4 127 1.8 3.4 139 4.3 149 4.8
Investment funds 25 1.0 1.6 27 1.6 28 1.9 29 1.9 30 1.0 2.0 31 2.0 35 2.2
Foreign capital investment funds 23 1.1 1.8 22 1.1 21 1.4 18 0.9 13 0.5 0.9 11 0.7 9 0.9
Other nonbank 166 7.0 11.0 160 9.4 160 11.7 157 14.6 158 5.7 11.0 154 11.2 79 12.6
Securities firms 9 1.5 2.3 10 1.7 8 3.0 8 1.6 8 0.7 1.4 7 1.6 7 2.1
Brokers 53 2.4 3.8 51 2.9 47 2.8 44 7.2 45 2.0 3.9 43 4.2 42 4.8
Mortgage funds 7 0.0 0.0 7 0.0 8 0.1 8 0.1 8 0.1 0.2 8 0.3 8 0.4
Mortgage securities administrators 18 0.2 0.3 10 0.3 17 0.3 14 0.2 15 0.2 0.3 15 0.4 17 0.5
Credit unions and cooperatives 1/ 78 0.2 0.3 81 0.3 79 0.4 78 0.5 77 0.3 0.5 76 0.6 79/34 0.7
CORFO 1 4.3 1 4.2 1 5.3 1 4.8 1 2.3 4.4 1 4.0 1 3.9
Factoring companies n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3 0.1 3 0.1 0.1 3 0.2 3 0.2
Auto Finance Companies n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1 0.1 1 0.1 0.1 1 0.1 1 0.2
Total Financial System 410 100.0 156.7 410 158.0 417 181.0 447 188.9 467 100.0 192.3 483 197.0 417 201.4
Sources:
1/ Data corresponds to financial cooperatives. Number "xx/yy": xx corresponds to active cooperatives; yy corresponds to cooperatives included in assests data.
Table 3. Chile: National Balance Sheet 1/
Financial Assets/Liabilities by Sector as a % of GDP, Dec-2003 ( unless otherwise specified)
2
Households 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.9 19.2 67.8 1.1 0.0 94.9
4 2
Firms 0.0 0.0 0.0 39.8 18.5 0.0 0.4 0.0 58.7
Public sector 0 1.9 0.0 22.2 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.9
5
External Sector 3 0.0 107.7 10.5 0.0 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 124.8
2 2
Banks 19.6 40.1 11.5 2.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 74.2
- 24 -
AFPs 0.0 12.7 14.7 14.2 16.3 0.0 0.4 1.6 60.0
6 7
Insurance Companies 0.1 5.1 3.7 0.5 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 15.8
Mutual Funds 0.0 2.5 4.1 0.6 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.7
Total 19.7 170.0 44.6 86.9 71.8 67.8 2.1 2.0 465.0
Insurance
As proportion (%) of each sector1/ Banking Securities Pensions 2/
(life and nonlife)
Belonging to a financial
98% 91% 40% 97%
conglomerate3/
Belonging to foreign financial
41% 47% 13% 80%
conglomerate
Belonging to domestic ‘pure’
34% 23% 9% 2%
financial conglomerate
Belonging to domestic conglomerate
23% 21% 18% 16%
with mixed activities 4/
Sources: SBIF, SVS, SAFP, and staff calculations.
1/ Percentages are based on bank assets (banking), securities turnover by stock brokerage companies/corredores
de bolsa (securities), direct premiums (insurance) and AFP assets under management (pensions) for 2003.
2/ AFP Habitat is assumed to be controlled by Citibank even though it is jointly owned with the Chilean
Chamber of Construction.
3/ Domestic and foreign groups that are only active in one Chilean financial sector are not considered financial
conglomerates.
4/ Only conglomerates with nonnegligible mixed activities are included.
Liabilities Assets
Monetary base 3.0 International Reserves 18.0
Currency (2.0)
Bank Reserves (1.0)
BCCh debt 23.0 BCCh claims on government 5.0
Capital -3.0
Total 23.0 Total 23.0
Source: BCCh and staff calculations.
Revenues 90
Inflation tax on monetary base (3% inflation) 3 x 0.03 90
Expenditures 364
Carrying cost of NIR (140 basis points) 1/ 16 x 0.0014 224
Carrying cost of claims on government (190 basis points) 2/ 5 x 0.0019 95
Operating expenditures 50
Changes in real net worth: -274
Memorandum Item
Net losses as a fraction of GDP -274/73,000 -0.37
Source: BCCh and staff calculations.
1/
Calculated as Chile’s country risk (90 basis points as of Chile EMBIG’s spread of March 4, 2004)
plus a premium for currency risk and the duration mismatch between debt and international reserves
(50 basis points).
2/
Calculated as the country risk plus the excess average yield of international reserves during 2003
over the yield of BCCh’s claims on government during the same period (Libor plus 50 basis points).
- 27 -
Dollarization
FX loans to total loans 14.2 13.5 13.9 13.7 15.8 14.8 13.7
FX deposits to total deposits 3.5 5.6 8.7 9.5 11.3 11.1 11.6
Liquidity
Liquid assets to total assets 16.6 15.2 17.7 16.9 17.2 18.7 16.9
Liquid assets to total short-term liabilities 18.3 17.8 20.5 20.0 20.6 22.0 20.2
Customer deposits to total (non-interbank) loans 72.7 75.2 81.3 80.6 78.9 80.8 77.6
Average bid-ask spread in the securities market 9/ 10.0 8.0 6.0 5.0
Source:
1/ The indicators are calculated in consolidated terms for branches and subsidiaries abroad starting on June 2002.
1/ Or in other markets that are most relevant to bank liquidity, such as domestic foreign exchange markets.
2/ Regulatory capital is equivalent to equity.
3/ Tier 1 regulatory capital is the basic capital.
4/ Overdue loans are unpaid loans with more than 90 days since the due date. In the case of credit in quotas, the general rule is
to account for the quota only. The only exception is when the loan has an accelaration clause in the agreement. As of Oct.'03.
5/ Correspond to a commercial portfolio greater than 20,000 UF and 2% of the equity of the financial institution.
6/ One day non readjustable interbank rate.
7/ ROA and ROE are calculated using annualized terms of final utility. To annualize, they are divided by the numbers of months
and multiplied by twelve. The denominator of both corresponds to the oustanding balance of the month in question.
8/ Nomi9al 30-89 day rate.
9/ Corresponds to PRC-8, data for October 2003.
10/ As of June 2003 data.
11/ For Santiago only and according to the Cámara Chilena de la construcción. It corresponds to the annual growth of average
price (per square meter) at which new properties are offered (not the final price of the transaction).
12/ For January-September.
- 28 -
Table 10. Portfolio Composition of Pension Funds (%): Chile and Selected Countries
ISSUE EXAMPLE(S)
Surveillance of macro- ‘Wiring’ of system (inter-sector linkages via common
financial issues instruments and markets)
‘Fire drill’ (contingency planning)
Crisis management
Resolution of conflicts of competence in event of failure of a
arrangements
More Systemic
financial conglomerate
Responsibility for monitoring and disclosing activities in
Avoiding supervisory gaps securities and derivatives markets
and overlaps
‘Hybrid’ products
120
15
100
80
10
60
40 5
20
0
0 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999
United Kingdom
Brazil
Chile
Malaysia
Argentina
Hong Kong
Thailand
United States
Japan
Peru
Mexico
-5
-10
Bank credit to private sector Corporate sector savings Total household savings
Stock market capitalization Voluntary household savings Mandatory household savings
Amount outstanding of private sector domestic bonds -15
Sources: International Financial Statistics (IFS), IFC's Emerging Markets Data Base, World
Federation of Exchanges (FIBV), Bank of International Settlements (BIS), and The World Bank Sources: BCCh and staff estimates.
- 30 -
Figure 3. Gini Index, various countries Figure 4. GDP per capita, various countries
Gini Index
(Latest year available) 28000
US$, PPP basis
Brazil
23000
Chile
18000
Mexico
Thailand 13000
New Zealand
8000
Australia
3000
Korea
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
29
-1
27
25 Chile -2
23
Australia -3
21
New Zealand Brazil
19 -4
Mexico
17
-5
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 -6
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Source: WEO Gross domestic private savings
Source: IFS.
Figure 7. Chile: Corporate Lending by Banks Figure 8. Export Concentration Index, various countries
- 31 -
Corporate Lending by Banks
(average annual growth rate, 2001-03) Export concentration index
6.0
5.2 Brazil 1990 2001
5.0
4.0 Korea
3.0
Thailand
2.0
2001
Chile
1.0 0.6 1990
0.0 Mexico
Mega Large Medium Small Micro
-1.0
New Zealand
-1.3
-2.0 -1.7
-3.0 Australia
-2.9
-4.0 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45
Source: SBIF.
Source: UNCTAD.
Figure 9. EMBI Global Sovereign Spreads, various countries Figure 10. Chile: Local and International Corporate Bond Issues
EMBI GLOBAL SOVEREIGN SPREADS (Equivalent in Million US$)
Souce: Morgan Markets.
- 32 -
Figure 11. Chile: Differential between Domestic Lending Rates Figure 12. Chile: Indicators of Uncertainty
and US Prime Rate Forward bid-offer spreads (%) Net Forward Position of Banks
25
Differential between domestic lending rates and US prime rate (mn. CH$)
20 40,000
0.7
15 30,000 1998 1999
0.6 2001
10
20,000 1997
5
0.5 10,000
2000
0 2002
-
0.4
-5
-10,000
-10 0.3
-20,000
-15
Differential between domestic lending rate and US prime loan 0.2
rate (adj. for exchange rate) -30,000
-20
Average (pre- and post- Sept 98)
0.1
-25 -40,000
Nov-94
Apr-95
Nov-99
Apr-00
Jan-94
Sep-95
Oct-97
Jan-99
Sep-00
Oct-02
May-97
May-02
Aug-98
Aug-03
Jun-94
Feb-96
Dec-96
Mar-98
Jun-99
Feb-01
Dec-01
Mar-03
Jul-96
Jul-01
0.0 -50,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
8000 1200
1000
6000
800
4000 600
400
2000
DowJones Ind. Ave. (INDU) Index - left axis 200
Chile IPSA Index (right axis)
Source: International Investment Position, IMF.
0 0
J a n - 0 0 Apr-91 Jul-92 O c t - 9 3 J a n - 9 5 Apr-96 Jul-97 O c t - 9 8 Jan-00 Apr-01 Jul-02 O c t - 0 3
Source: Datastream.
Figure 15. Chile: Volumes Traded in the Spot and NDF Markets Figure 16. Chile: Stress Test on Currency Risk in Corporates
(1996-2003, in US$ Millions)
- 33 -
450,000
Number of firms for which the interest coverage would fall below 1 in case of
400,000
an exchange rate movement
(out of 50 firms with the largest FX gap)
350,000
18 17
Volume (notional) US$ millions
300,000
16
250,000 14 13
Spot volumes
Derivatives 12
200,000
10
8
150,000 8
6 5
100,000
4 3
4
50,000 2
0
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
below -25% -10 to -25% -5 to -15% 0 to -5% 0 to 5% 5 to 15% 10 to 25% above 25%
Years
Source: BCCh. Note: Data at end-2003 covering the 50 firms with the largest FX gap. The X axis
displays the % depreciation; the Y axis shows the # of firms with ICR below 1 after
the exchange rate shock.
80
2.5
2.0
60
1.5
40
1.0
20 0.5
0.0
0 Australia Thailand Korea New Zealand Mexico Brazil Chile
ile
ru
d
da
rea
zil
re
co
a
lia
tina
an
Pe
tes
Ch
ysi
ng
Bra
po
na
Ko
nd
exi
m
stra
ail
Ko
ala
Sta
gen
Ca
ala
ga
do
M
Au
Th
M
Ze
Sin
ng
ng
Ar
ited
Ho
Ki
w
Un
Ne
ited
Un
Source: Bankscope
Source: Bankscope
- 34 -
Figure 19. Chile: Main Characteristics of the Sample of Firms (2003) Figure: 20. Chile: Issuance Costs of Selected Instruments
Sample breakdown by size of cies Sample breakdown by sector Agriculture
57 22 23 7 Mining
Mega 32 Manufacturing
66 I s s u a n cIssuance
e c o s t bCost
r e a Breakdown
k d o w n i n in
C hChile
ile
51 Large Industry ( i s s u e (End
of US $ 1 0Issue
0 m i loflio n) Other
206 50
2002, US$100 million)
Utilities Stamp tax
Medium 19 3.5%
Construction Regulatory
65 Small 4 Commerce
3.0% Legal costs
Micro Real estate
Investment Banking
Social serv.
97 177 2.5%
provisions
3.5%
60% With a 13% increase, only
3.0%
companies to the right of this
2.5% line would have positive capital
40%
2.0% unless they could realise Market
Value / Book Value hidden
1.5% 20% margins to move their position to
1.0% the right.
International debt
0.5% 0%
Domestic equity
0.0% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 2 5
Domestic debt % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %
Chile
Brazil
Mexico
Sources: SVS and staff estimates.
Sources: World Bank and staff estimates.
- 35 -
Figure 23. Chile: Corporate Debt Outstanding by Credit Rating Figure 24. Average Free Float Ratios for Emerging Equity Markets
Colombia
200
Chile
India
China
Philippines
Poland
Thailand
Pakistan
Indonesia
Czech Republic
Peru
Malaysia
Egypt
Hungary
Venezuela
Morocco
Israel
Mexico
Turkey
Jordan
Russia
Korea
Brazil
Argentina
South Africa
10
Taiwan
0 0
C
A
B
A-
AAA
A+
AA
BB
AA-
AA+
BB+
BBB
BBB+
600
Millions of USD
500 15.00
400
2001
300 10.00
200 1998
100 5.00
0
Public Stocks Corporate Money market Mortgage Forex Repurchase
0.00
securities 1/ Bonds instruments 2/ bonds derivatives 3/ agreements
1/ includes central bank and treasury paper (99.9% CB paper) (gross) 4/
ile
a
ea
ru
ry
il
l
nd
a
ico
ae
di
as
bi
Ch
Pe
or
ga
Isr
In
la
ex
2/ commercial paper, fixed term deposits etc.
Br
lom
K
un
ai
M
On-Exchange OTC
Th
3/ non-deliverable forwards (NDFs)
Co
H
4/ includes only repos between banks and the Central Bank
- 36 -
Figure 27. One Month Forward Bid-offer Spread
(March 2004, %)
Various countries
1 Month Forward bid-offer spread (%)
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
Thailand Brasil Korea Chile Mexico New Australia
Zealand
Ultimate Owner
SVS (only if
registered with it) Various non-financial
All companies below sector companies
can come under the bank Holding Company (directly or via
or directly under the (can be one or several) intermediate
holding company; investment vehicles)
leasing and factoring
operations can also
be part of the bank SBIF SAFP
itself (no subsidiaries Life Insurance P&C Insurance
needed); most companies Bank (BHC) AFP
Company Company
(e.g. mutual funds, brokerage)
can also be owned by an
insurance company
APPENDICES
- 39 -
APPENDIX I
List of Acronyms
APPENDIX II
APPENDIX III
The assessment of banks’ risk management practices is based on a survey prepared by the
FSAP mission (twenty out of the twenty six authorized banks responded). As regards credit
risk management, Chilean banks are still mostly on the learning curve. Only foreign
subsidiaries and branches use models to classify corporate loans, less than a third of the
banks stress test their corporate loan portfolio, and only a third estimate unexpected losses.
Most banks classify consumer loans as category A (the highest credit ranking) at inception
and few banks use credit scoring models and control for negative information on the client.
As regards market risk management, there are considerable differences across banks. While
almost all large banks (as well as the subsidiaries and branches of foreign banks) use VAR
models, only 40 percent of the small and medium domestic banks do; among those that do,
only half consider risk correlations. The average time length of the historical data used by
small domestic banks is only half a year, and back testing is rare. Given the relatively
simplicity of the products offered and held by Chilean banks, Monte Carlo simulations are
the exception. However, more sophisticated modeling will be needed if the use of structured
products and options intensifies.
The SBIF’s disclosure requirements regarding banks’ capital structure and adequacy, as well
as accounting policies and geographical portfolio diversification, compare favorably with
best international practice, as reported by the BIS. However, differences in definitions hinder
international comparisons of asset quality (NPLs and provisions) as Chilean norms require
that only the past-due portion of a delinquent loan (rather than the entire balance and accrued
interest) be classified as past-due. While the SBIF also discloses a bank risk index, the latter
does not fully reflect credit exposure since information on collateral and loan guarantees is
not included.
Mandatory disclosure of risks exposures and risk management techniques is not required, and
disclosure is uneven, particularly as regards derivatives and securitization. Among the largest
five banks, the three that are listed in the NYSE disclose all the necessary information on risk
exposure in the US, but only two of them do it in Chile. Information on income by business
line is generally lacking. Only one of the large banks discusses its risk management practices
in Chile (two more do it in the US).
- 43 -
APPENDIX IV
Sight deposits (and term deposits of less than 30 days or whose term to maturity is less than
10 days) are fully guaranteed by the BCCh which protects itself from potential losses by
requiring that banks hold liquid assets (in the form of central bank debt) against sight
deposits in excess of 2.5 times their capital. In addition, if the guarantee were triggered, the
BCCh would become the most senior claimant on the bank’s assets.
When a bank is unable to meet its commitments (including as regards its liquid asset
requirement) or severe solvency or managerial shortfalls emerge (as defined in the banking
law), the bank’s non-sight liabilities are frozen while sight deposits remain fully accessible;
they are “decoup led” from the rest of the bank together with the corresponding liquid assets
plus the BCCh guarantee. This protects the payments system, mitigates the contagion risk of
a bank closure, and provides breathing room for an efficient resolution of the non-narrow
part of the bank.
The risk of an unwarranted last minute expansion of the guarantee is limited by a five-day
advance notice required by banks for transferring term deposits into sight deposits. The bank
resolution system is conditioned to (and shaped by) a creditor agreement ratified by the
majority (in terms of claims) of the bank’s non-sight creditors (and the SBIF). When an
agreement cannot be reached, outright liquidation on the entire non-narrow bank is the only
possible outcome.
- 44 -
APPENDIX V
Founded in the early 1990’s, Inverlink grew rapidly from a stock brokerage firm into a full-
fledged conglomerate with pension fund, life insurance, and nonfinancial concerns. After
being accused of share price manipulation in 2001, the group was encouraged by the SBIF to
retract its banking license application, while the Central Bank refused it authorization to deal
on the foreign exchange market.
At the beginning of February 2003, Inverlink’s brokerage arm was revealed to have been
buying market-sensitive information from the personal secretary of the Central Bank
president. Faced with a run on its mutual funds caused by these accusations, the group
resorted to selling paper-based CDs from CORFO that it illegally held and had been using as
collateral for short-term trading for years. It also borrowed substantially from its insurance
subsidiary, resulting in the latter’s subsequent insolvency and collapse.
CORFO’s reporting of the theft in March (by that time, the CDs had changed hands and were
held mostly by local mutual funds) triggered a dispute as to their ownership (the holders
maintained they had acquired the CDs in good faith). Over the next three days, the mutual
fund industry lost over US$1.5 billion (around 27 percent of its assets) as nervous investors
unloaded positions; this led to knock-on effects on the prices of other secondary market
securities.
Faced with a paralyzed market and mounting fears of a broader liquidity run, the government
lifted the stop payment on the CDs until the courts determined their legal ownership, a
process that is still on-going. In addition, it reached an agreement with SVS and the banks
(owners of most mutual funds) so that the latter would guarantee the immediate repayment of
the stolen instruments and would take any court- mandated loss. This stabilized the financial
markets.
The scandal led to the resignation of the CORFO Executive Vice President, Central Bank
President, and SVS Superintendent, as well as to the arrest and trial of Inverlink senior
management. It was Chile’s first (albeit limited) market confidence crisis since the early
1980’s, raising serious questions about cross-sector contagion, inadequacies in market
infrastructure, insufficient internal controls, and ineffective surveillance.