Beruflich Dokumente
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Initial Jobless Claims: Survey 478k Actual 500k Prior 484 Revised 488
• Jobless claims are one of the better leading indicators of the economy and one of the best
coincident indicators of payroll employment changes. The rising pace of layoffs since early February
presaged the slowdown in hiring in May and the slowdown in the economy in the second half of the
second quarter. Today’s data suggest things could deteriorate further before they improve. – FTN
Financial
• The SEC sued New Jersey for securities fraud, saying the state lied about the condition of its two
largest pension funds when issuing securities. The state settled without admitting wrongdoing. The SEC
is not likely to go after the federal government for failing to recognize the unfunded liabilities in SS and
Medicare, but it might go after New York, Illinois and California, according to the WSJ. – FTN
• SP500 technical update (from Krauss): daily momentum is on the cusp of an oversold buy signal.
A weekly close above 1079 would confirm a bullish reversal week. Bulls need to push back above the
1107 August range breakdown and the 1116 200 day moving average to restart the rally towards 1130‐
1150 interim resistance – JPM’s Krauss
• Housing ‐ Homeowners were less confident about the value of their homes in the second
quarter, with one‐third believing home prices had not yet reached a bottom. Zillow.com/Reuters
• US banks receive benefit from new Basel III proposals – a new report from Barclays says major
US banks should be able to comply w/new Basel III capital rules w/o having to raise substantial new
amounts of equity. US banks will have to raise new capital amounting to only 50% of original forecasts.
FT
• GLD becoming popular gold vehicle for HFs – w/its growing popularity, there are growing signs
that gold is becoming less a hedge vs. equities as correlations w/stock moves have risen – WSJ
• Mortgage refinancings jumped in the past week, which advanced 17% to a high since May of last
year (out Wed pre‐open) – WSJ
Of Interest
• The decoupling of stocks & bond yields continues to widen
Bond yields and stock prices are generally positively correlated…yields move up as growth is
repriced higher. Money moves out of fixed income and into risk assets such as equities. Yet in
this latest equity rally yields have come down. Which one is wrong? There have been periods in
the past during which the correlation between bond yields and stock prices has been persistently
negative (1990’s). It could be that strange things are happening in Fixed Income (FI) markets
with Quantitative Easing and government intervention. Thus, it seems quite possible that stocks
could continue to rally without FI markets pricing in higher growth. The truth is, however, I
don’t have a clear answer but I am reluctant to simply assume that the correlation will
automatically resume.